2014 Kentucky Derby Thoughts

[TheComputerGroup]

Lol I've done that many times, forgetting to reload the page.. Now time to analyze Commanding Curve.. We know Dallas Stewart's horse Golden Soul, placed in the Derby last year.. This is another guy we need to take a strong look at..

Commanding Curve will be added in my tris & supers.......he needs more distance & should be closing.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Cheers EB and please allow me to apologize in advance for the length of this all.

Agree entirely with you in regards to Hoppertunity and his SA Derby performances. I didn't see him as being fully cranked either. But I thought it was a nice solid effort for what it was and for how that track has been playing all spring. Just a good prep race to keep the fitness level high and without overdoing it. Really like how he is bred for stamina (top 2 or 3 in the field) and while he's not going to blow people away with his turn of foot, he does have that consistent running style that grinds out fractions at 12 and change, 12 and change, 12 and change, etc. In addition to his stamina he also has some beautiful length to his stride, which becomes a great benefit to a horse once fatigue sets in with him and the other horses around him. The curse? Yeah, something to think about. But like other curses that have fallen in recent years, I think that one is going to fall soon enough as well. Is it this year? Maybe not, so while I might play him on top on a couple of tickets, he'll be on all my tickets as an underneath play at least.

Getting back to the Santa Anita Derby, that's not a race that I'm going to use much and transferring over to the Kentucky Derby. You had Hoppertunity who probably wasn't fully cranked. You had Candy Boy who was coming off a two month layoff and wasn't on form. Then you had a bunch of no-hopers filling out the field. California Chrome had everything working in his favour that race. He got to ride what was a very apparent track bias all spring by laying off a maiden over soft fractions on a track that was speed favouring to some historical levels. usually is a speed favouring track. But this track is was pretty ridiculous with how tight they roll that place and boosted speeds.

- A race or two before Chrome's San Felipe, a rather weak maiden runner named Nome wired the field and even opened up on them while running a final time of 1:08.95 over 6f. A time that, as is, is right there with the winners of the Breeders Cup Sprint times over the last 5 times it was run on a non-SA track. Nome's time was also two seconds faster than he had ever run at that distance in 6 tries before and since. From my understanding, he was always a horse that was on/near the lead, but folded from fatigue over the last furlong of a race. Not that day, though. He couldn't be caught.

- Of course, that same day we saw Game On Dude wire the field in the Big Cap, setting a stakes record by over a half a second in the process, and almost setting the world record for 10f. His final of 1:58.17 was only a couple of tenths off of Bid's record for the distance and was apx 1.5 seconds faster that Game On Dude had run before on that track. Obviously a very nice horse, but...

- The Day of the SA Derby we saw a 3 year-old maiden winner take a 7f race on the dirt in 1:21.64. A time that, as is, wins the 7f G1 King's Bishop 9 times out of 10. We saw a horse in a claimer on the dirt towards the end of the card win a 6f race in 1:08.27. Again, that time wins the last five non-SA Breeders Cup Sprint race and does so by open length. We had a mile race on dirt for claimers that was won in a time that compares favourably to some of the major G1 races at that distance.

- It was the California handicapper for DRF, Brad Free, wrote a couple of weeks ago that out of then-last 20 dirt races at SA, 14 were won via wire jobs, and the other 6 were won by sitting a length or two off the leaders. None of them came from any sort of position while running off the pace.

- Considering he just raced yesterday, we also had Bayern earlier in the year. Wires an okay allowance field on the SA track and did so by winning by over 15 lengths. A lot of people were raving about it and there was plenty of talk about him possibly being the eventual Kentucky Derby favourite. He gets taken off that track, runs on a couple of lackluster races on different ones, and now looks like he'd be one of the longest shots on the board if he had entered the Derby. A SA track bias and the appropriate running style seems to have flattered Bayern based on what we've seen over the last two.

I know a lot of people are very high on California Chrome and probably a few are on here as well. Can't say I'd blame them for that either, because I do too think he's very talented. I'm just not sure I see him as being nearly as talented when taken off that Blazing fast SA track, and thus he'll be a play against for me. Especially if he's 2-1 or thereabouts. I'll give him the chance to beat me and if he does it wouldn't be the first nor the last time it happens. But I'll be okay with that, though, because parts of me would love to see him transfer his form over and become a racing superstar over the next 5 weeks. Like any horse racing fan.

Again, my apologies for the length

Chrome won twice at Hollywood & once at DelMar. All 3 races were on poly & at short distances.

I think the owners & trainer know exactly what kind of horse they have & if they worked him over the Churchill track, he would look overwhelmingly good & be easily 8-5. Don't need that kind of attention going into the derby, gotta leave some guessing.

 

[Andrick]

Chrome won twice at Hollywood & once at DelMar. All 3 races were on poly & at short distances.

I think the owners & trainer know exactly what kind of horse they have & if they worked him over the Churchill track, he would look overwhelmingly good & be easily 8-5. Don't need that kind of attention going into the derby, gotta leave some guessing.

Sure. Chrome is a fast horse who, like I said, I thought was very talented. Being able to win some ungraded stake races while sprinting on other tracks is no surprise to me. I just don't trust his performances during his two route races at Santa Anita nearly as much as others due to a very apparent speed bias. I wonder if the surface and the way it played didn't flatter him some like it did Bayern or some other speed type horses coming into the Derby off the SA track in recent years (Goldencents, Sidney's Candy, Brother Derek, etc.). There is plenty to like about him if you do like him. I also think there's reasons to play against him too. We can't play them all, so everybody has to make some decisions to leave out some good horses here and there. At least most people will. He's one that I'm going against. That's all. Doesn't mean I think he has no shot to win or anything.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

TCG,

We would see back to back sires by Bold Ruler...Also keep in mind if Cali Chrome wins, this would be only the second time since 1940 (As far as we can track) that a horse with the same sire and same dam won the Derby back to back..Orb also has RAN on his mother's side....The only other time this has happened was 2000 with Fusaichi Pegasus and in 2001 with Monarchos, both having the RAN sire line and Northern Dancer on the dam side...

This is the only trend that has been in the back of my mind........if this holds true, I hope Chrome comes out of the #1 post so I can dismiss him easily.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Sure. Chrome is a fast horse who, like I said, I thought was very talented. Being able to win some ungraded stake races while sprinting on other tracks is no surprise to me. I just don't trust his performances during his two route races at Santa Anita nearly as much as others due to a very apparent speed bias. I wonder if the surface and the way it played didn't flatter him some like it did Bayern or some other speed type horses coming into the Derby off the SA track in recent years (Goldencents, Sidney's Candy, Brother Derek, etc.). There is plenty to like about him if you do like him. I also think there's reasons to play against him too. We can't play them all, so everybody has to make some decisions to leave out some good horses here and there. At least most people will. He's one that I'm going against. That's all. Doesn't mean I think he has no shot to win or anything.

If Chrome doesn't win, he won't hit the board, now that's a bet I would like to make at better odds than 3-1 so I could cover my tickets.

I really think he either wins or doesn't hit the board & if he doesn't hit the board, light up the tote board because that super will pay like 200k

 

[elevenblack301]

Lol I've done that many times, forgetting to reload the page.. Now time to analyze Commanding Curve.. We know Dallas Stewart's horse Golden Soul, placed in the Derby last year.. This is another guy we need to take a strong look at..

Well, was going to toss Ring Weekend, after hearing about the episode of bleeding last race out......................so that was an easy toss for me................, now comes Commanding Curve.....................have to start crunching some of his numbers..............he's 3 for 3 at Churchill......................likes to come off the pace ( nice LP numbers ) ...................but very slow Beyers ....................what to do with him............have about 6 days to figure that one out

 

[elevenblack301]

:think2: Andrick,

No apologies needed for the 'long' post...................................good stuff in it..................and that's what we want here...................

I am in agreement with you about the SA race and know the history of those horses..............I was 'high' on Goldencents last year and he came up to bite me.............I am starting to think that C Chrome doesn't hit the top 5................

Thanks again...................and Go Fast and Win...................

 

[rbrown1982]

Andrick,

 

[tanner12oz]

Gary Young a clocker at Churchill said he thought the horse that had the best workout of the day on Saturday was Medal Count

the workout report I read was "good but nothing special"

 

[tanner12oz]

Commanding Curve will be added in my tris & supers.......he needs more distance & should be closing.

I agree although he wasn't been working well for what its worth

 

[tanner12oz]

The positive works today were from intense holiday and danza...we miss Artie and vinceramos were disappointing

 

[elevenblack301]

hno: Some like to consider this stat,

Horses which did not have an April prep race...............

Vicar's In Trouble
Intense Holiday
Wildcat Red
We Miss Artie
Chitu
General A Rod
Commanding Curve

 

[elevenblack301]

:think2: I always like to put this out for me to look back on after the post positions are drawn, to see what changes I will need to make, so I will just list all of the horses now with my thoughts and how I see them with less than 1 week to go....................


California Chrome - ( probably will play him in exotics )
----- we know he is the fastest colt out of California, winning the last four races by 24 plus lengths.......but he has beaten only 3 stakes horses in those races
----- I think if he breaks slowly and takes dirt in the face, he will finish out of the money

Candy Boy
----- one of the lesser California horses this year
----- needs to set off the pace and not try to run with the early speed

Chitu ( will be in exotics )
----- his speed figures have improved and his beyers over last 3 starts, could hit the board
----- has to come off the pace instead of pressing though

Commanding Curve
----- he is an improving colt that may hit the board like his stablemate Golden Soul did last year
----- seems to be getting better, and his beyers are improving

Dance With Fate ( will be in exotics )
---- one of the Blue Grass horses, who can sit off the pace and make that strong late move
----- his beyer numbers have improved, but needs to get triple digits to win this race

Danza
----- looks like his pedigree is one of sprinter speed over miler stamina

General A Rod ( will be in exotics )
----- always appears to be there contesting the lead, and if he does this in the Derby, it will be his downfall, so he has to sit and rest
----- has not won a graded stakes race

Harry’s Holiday
----- only thing I like about him is he has done well at Churchill.................that is the only thing

Hoppertunity ( possible win candidate )
----- has improving speed figures, could finish in the money as he has improved in each of his races
----- is the only horse in this field which will not be physically 3 years old until after the Derby ( DOB 5/7/2011 )

Intense Holiday ( possible win candidate )
----- if his jockey could settle him in the back of the pack , think he has a great chance to hit the board, and maybe pull off the upset
----- the ‘hot’ derby pace ( think something similar to last year ) will suit him fine
----- highest Late Pace number of this bunch

Medal Count ( will be in exotics )
----- has the pedigree and running style to be competitive in the Derby and if he trains well and likes the surface ( which I believe he does ), will be running down the stretch passing some tired horses
----- his beyers have improved

Ride On Curlin ( have to put him somewhere because of jockey factor )
----- of course, the Borel factor ( and has tested the Churchill strip ) , although I have seen that the inside of the track has been not ‘good ‘ thru the workouts the past week
----- always seems to be in the money

Samraat ( will be in exotics )
----- think his pedigree and running style indicate that 10f is too much, though his beyers have continued to improved
----- has done all of his racing in NY

Tapiture
----- as above, think his pedigree will not let him get this distance, but he has finished in the money in all 3 starts at Churchill
----- could have topped out in Arkansas

Uncle Sigh
----- like the other NY horse, Samraat, just not getting a good feeling about him either
----- think he will be out early and fade

Vicar’s In Trouble
----- the Rosie effect, think that this horse and Ride On Curlin will be bet down for the jockeys
----- as much as I would like to see him wearing the roses, think he will be in trouble turning for home

Vinceremos
----- this is one of Pletcher’s second stringers, so should be worth a look
----- one disastrous race, but other races he did well

We Miss Artie
----- don’t think he should be considered as a threat at all

Wicked Strong ( possible win candidate )
----- has the pedigree and running style that sets up perfectly
----- think he will flourish down the stretch, his beyers have improved
----- his trainer did say he was a very tired horse after the Wood though ?

Wildcat Red
----- fought with General A Rod through the Florida preps, where the surface was kind to his style
----- will be fighting for the lead from the start and believe that will be his downfall


So my first tier of possible win candidates ( at this time ) are ; Hoppertunity, Intense Holiday, Wicked Strong

Now all we have to do is wait for Wednesday ( may need to change some leans ) and see what gates these colts will be in...........

Be well all...................

 

[SqueezetheJuice]

Eleven,

I haven't posted as of yet this year mainly so that I am not influenced by the analysis of everyone else at this point; however, here is some coincidental irony for ya-California Chrome's own Art Sherman said that Chrome is a "lock" this year. The coincidence or irony is that years ago Big Brown's owner said the same thing and he was right backing that up with about a 200k.
wager. Maybe all the analysis we need! LOL!

 

[elevenblack301]

Eleven,

I haven't posted as of yet this year mainly so that I am not influenced by the analysis of everyone else at this point; however, here is some coincidental irony for ya-California Chrome's own Art Sherman said that Chrome is a "lock" this year. The coincidence or irony is that years ago Big Brown's owner said the same thing and he was right backing that up with about a 200k.
wager. Maybe all the analysis we need! LOL!

Squeeze,

As always, great to hear from you, my friend..........................interesting point you make.....................

Will look forward to your analysis that you do every year, and of course , your plays.....................be well.....................hoping that we are on the same page with a few of these 'boys'

 

[TheComputerGroup]

We have a guarantee from Mr Coburn saying Cali Chrome is a lock to win the derby.........we have several strong trends & angles going against Chrome & now my head is spinning & if that's not enough, myhead will really be spinning after they draw post positions.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Past 5 derby winners never cracked a beyer of 100 prior to the derby

 

[rbrown1982]

Eleven, I wouldn't discount Tapiture's pedigree. He carries Buckpasser's x gene (large heart) as does CC, Chitu, Ride on Curlin, Wicked Strong, Wildcat Red, Vinceremos, Uncle Sigh and Vicar's in trouble. Stan Caris, author of the new triple crown book, pointed out that since 2010 only 5 horses have run the derby with the x gene. 3 of the 5 horses are Orb, Bodemeister and Supersaver (Royal Delta and She's a Tiger recently as well). The x gene angle has shown an in the money derby finisher in 13 of 19 derbys since 1978. If you take the above 9 horses running this year (by far the most x gene horses ever running together in one derby) four of them have shown strong late pace numbers: CC, Ride on Curlin, Wildcat Red, Wicked Strong. At this time, I'm thinking a 4 key trifecta with those 4 horses would be a good idea.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

I don't think beyer has perfected transferring the numbers from synthetics........I'm glad Keenland & DelMar are going back to grass.

 

[TheComputerGroup]

Eleven, I wouldn't discount Tapiture's pedigree. He carries Buckpasser's x gene (large heart) as does CC, Chitu, Ride on Curlin, Wicked Strong, it Wildcat Red, Vinceremos, Uncle Sigh and Vicar's in trouble. Stan Caris, author of the new triple crown book, pointed out that since 2010 only 5 horses have run the derby with the x gene. 3 of the 5 horses are Orb, Bodemeister and Supersaver (Royal Delta and She's a Tiger recently as well). The x gene angle has shown an in the money derby finisher in 13 of 19 derbys since 1978. If you take the above 9 horses running this year (by far the most x gene horses ever running together in one derby) four of them have shown strong late pace numbers: CC, Ride on Curlin, Wildcat Red, Wicked Strong. At this time, I'm thinking a 4 key trifecta with those 4 horses would be a good idea.

Rbrown, I think Asmussen has too much on his plate with everything that happened with PETA, etc.......I can't see how he's even able to concentrate & the poor showing of Tapiture showed it in Ark.derby.

If he would have closed for 2nd with a flourish of speed, I would have agreed but I don't see Tapiture winning.

Cali Chrome either wins or is completely out of the money & if he's out of the money, the racing industry & casinos will make a ton of money because of the WPS pools & the exotics people are sticking him in.

As s better, if Chrome is out of the money, you will get great odds on your horse & exotics.