Zapster's NBA Totalzzz

[Zapster]

Can you spell V-I-G ?? 3-3 for the night....and 1-1 at each level of play yields a minus 0.6 for the night, bringing the record to.........:

YTD 47-60 (.439) and minus 23.5 Units.

Two games tonight........:

PHO UNDER 201 (2 Units) - 189.5
SAC OVER 204 (1 Unit) - 212.6

 

[Zapster]

YTD 48-61 (.440) and minus 24.7 Units.

Here are the plays for Saturday.........:

DET UNDER 170.5 (4 Units) - 149
MIA OVER 200 (1 Unit) - 207.5

Jermaine's return is more likely (in my opinion) to impact the sides than the totals. So I don't feel any need to reduce this play. DEE-Fence!!!

 

[Doug]

Zap: I was waiting for that line on Det under. I pounded under 172, seems too easy, I may buy some back for a middle. It's just so obvious. Maybe OT kills it ?

 

[Zapster]

Yeah....I don't really understand why the number is so high. Line on Detroit was 169.5 when they played Chicago the other day and the Bulls are a MUCH faster paced team than the Pacers. I won't middle this....I think this game is an UNDER even at 160.....and I think the only way this loses is in OT (or late foulfest) so maybe the move is to wait till halftime to middle it if that's what you're lookin' to do. The ONLY other possible problem I can see with this game is that the refs might call it very tight because of what happened in Detroit....and if that happens, free throws can kill the total. But the numbers absolutely LOVE the under in this one, so I will take my chances.

 

[Doug]

Zap: Yes, easy whistles may be a factor, but I expect a clean slow game. Perhaps not ultra-defensive. I don't see a track meet. I overbet it with intention of selling some back for a middle, so that's what I'll do. Halftime is a good idea also. It still looks too easy, but I'll have what I wanted on under and possible bonus with middle.

The problem with the half is if H1 scores low, then H2 total gets inflated high, reducing middle shot. I sometimes even bet H2 under in these situations ( esp. if fav leads good). I couldn't risk that here, as I have mucho under already.

 

[GordonGekko+]

What do you think about the 1H?

Det -1.5 and a total of 85.5

Is there a play with the under here?

 

[Zapster]

GG............

I don't usually do 1st half wagers. Under 85.5 would seem to be a good play, but I am sticking with the full game play.

 

[Zapster]

YTD 49-62 (.441) and minus 28.1 Units.

Here are the plays for Sunday.........:

SA OVER 193 (1 Unit) - 201
CLE UNDER 183 (1 Unit) - 174.5
PHO UNDER 214 (1 Unit) - 205.5
MIN UNDER 206 (1 Unit) - 200
SAC OVER 208 (2 Units) - 220

Still a few games off the board so I will take a further look in the morning. Here are my calcs for the games that still don't have lines......:

CHI 179.5
HOU 181
DAL 217.5

 

[Zapster]

Adding........

DAL OVER 201.5 (3 Units) - 217.5

 

[thesteammaker]

Zap,if your delta for this game is an untreal 17 points,then why is it only a 3 unit play?pistons play was 4 units,and there's no way you had that game at more than a 17 pt delta.


thanks in advance and gl

 

[Zapster]

Steam..........

Detroit was 20+ below the line.....Dallas is 16 above the line. The way I do my units is a function of the difference between my number and the line...:

6-9.5 = 1 Unit
10-14.5 = 2 Units
15-19.5 = 3 Units
20 or more = 4 Units

 

[thesteammaker]

sorry zap.just looking at it now.couldn't believe that you'd have a game at 156my bad.was just assuming that you wouldn't have had that game that low.


good luck the rest of the way in.

 

[Zapster]

YTD 52-65 (.444) and minus 31.7 Units.

Bad weekend all around.......let's hope today is the day we get back going in the right direction. LOTS of sides tonight. Here are the totals...........:

IND UNDER 179.5 (2 Units) - 165.5
MIA UNDER 196 (1 Unit) - 190
DET UNDER 174 (1 Unit) - 165.5
MEM UNDER 183.5 (3 Units) - 167
GS OVER 195.5 (3 Units) - 214

On both sides and totals, this will be a pivotal night. As I have said all along, each has a bankroll of 40 units which means the totals are once again facing extinction if it is a really bad night. Hopefully the same thing will happen that happened LAST time we reached the suburbs of Tapioca City.

 

[cashflowmatters]

GL Zap, I am taking a break till after the holidays, trying to regroup from a 38 unit hole which seemed to happen almost over night. Go gettem tonight Zap, I know you are very capable, just need some breaks to change the momentun!!! arty:

 

[Zapster]

Thanks CFM.....we all need to take a break sometimes.....hopefully you will come back strong. I've been one loss away from Tapioca City more than once this season myself.

2-3 night last night, but the two wins were the two "BIGGIES" so the system was plus 1.6 Units for the night, bringing the record to........

YTD 54-68 (.443) and minus 30.1 Units.

Here are tonight's plays.........

CLE UNDER 192.5 (1 Unit) - 184
DAL OVER 209 (2 Units) - 222
SEA OVER 202.5 (1 Unit) - 209

 

[cashflowmatters]

Zap: Very nice night for you all around, congrads, keep it up and before ya know it you will be back to even.

 

[Zapster]

YTD 55-70 (.440) and minus 32.4 Units.

Here are the plays for Tuesday Night............:

DET UNDER 183.5 (3 Units) - 168
CLE UNDER 187 (1 Unit) - 180.5
IND UNDER 186.5 (1 Unit) - 179.5

 

[Zapster]

YTD 57-71 (.445) and minus 33.7 Units.

Here are the plays for Wednesday Night............:

IND UNDER 178 (2 Units) - 166.5
SA UNDER 177.5 (1 Unit) - 170

 

[Zapster]

YTD 57-73 (.438) and minus 37.0 Units.

Here are the plays for New Year's Eve............:

Seattle UNDER 191.5 (1 Unit) - 183
Denver OVER 205 (2 Units) - 216.5
Houston OVER 189.5 (1 Unit) - 195.5

Once again, facing extinction. If this goes beyond the 40 Unit limit, I will stop posting these until the playoffs. Hopefully tomorrow will be my first post in 2005 !!!

 

[Zapster]

YTD 58-75 (.436) and minus 39.3 Units.

Well.....2004 has certainly left us with VERY little room to maneuver !!! For whatever it's worth, today I am using a different totals formula. It's the one designed for games 31 and on. It needs to get a good jump out of the gate or I will go past the 40 unit limit and if that happens, this will be the last post I make in this thread.....which essentially would SUCK !!

Sooooo.......either I will be back tomorrow with more or I'm done posting full game totals till the playoffs.

Hopefully this is a post I will be pointing back to in February saying something like "remember how close to Tapistrano I was on New Years Day?"

Well......here goes......these are my plays for January 1st..........:

New Jerzzzey UNDER 187.5 (2 Units)
Charlotte UNDER 195 (1 Unit)
Orlando OVER 196.5 (1 Unit)
Colden State UNDER 193.5 (2 Units)