There’s no one universally agreed-upon system for when you should go for it on fourth down. But a very popular one is The New York Times’ 4th Down Bot, which is powered by models built by Brian Burke — founder of Advanced Football Analytics and a pioneer in the quantitative analysis of football. It calculates the expected value (either in points or win percentages) for every fourth-down play in the NFL, and tweets live results during games. Its 19,000-plus followers are treated to the bot’s particular emphasis on the many, many times coaches fail to go for it on fourth down when they should.
A very helpful feature of the 4th Down Bot is that its game logs break down each fourth-down decision into its component parts. This means that we can see exactly what assumptions the bot is making about the success rate of each kick. Comparing those to my model, it looks to me like the bot’s kickers are approximately 2004-quality. (I asked Burke about this, and he agrees that the bot is probably at least a few years behind,[SUP]6[/SUP]
Always logically and factual! Always right too. Except when I used numbers from China, in which case I was wrong for doing that.
Precisely. With the lead that late nothing to be gained by going for other than an injured starter. 95 plus % of making a field goal 61.5% of making 4th and 2 with including but not exclusively using a qb sneak. Again you cannot be ok with the Pats not going for it on fourth and one and supporting PEyton call.
Yet here we are.
FG was unquestionably the right move for NE. 100%, zero question.
Saints call was closer but I still believe correct. Bottom line is one gives them a 99.6% chance to win and the other gives them a 99.7% chance to win, so who really cares. Neither call would be egregiously incorrect from an end-game strategy perspective.
I disagree and I'm not playing devil's advocate here. The PAts call was closer. I used the PAts as an example because I knew most would agree with the call when the numbers shows it was incorrect. 4th and 1 greater than 81% chance of getting it. A field goal between 40-45 yards is only 71%. Up ten with 1:12 seconds left your win percentage is gotta be 99% (I don't know exactly I'll take a look at this weeks game tracker and see if a team is up by ten late in the fourth quarter) first down and the game is over 100% victory. (Herm Edwards doesn't play anymore) Gostkowski career average from 40-49 is 76%, However Brady is 91 out of 100 running on 3rd and 4th and 1. And you can't use the what if he missed it argument because there's a greater probability of the fg miss than the 4th and 1 miss. This however is splitting hairs. There was a lot to gain with either call in the Super Bowl. There was absolutely nothing to gain by NO going for it. Get your QBs off the field and kick the ball.
