Say you have a strong opinion that, say, today's Oklahoma-Texas A&M game is going under the number, which is 135. Instead of paying 110 or 105 at an ordinary book, pinny would let you bet this down to, say, 133' under +107. This is a HUGE advantage for solid cappers. No other book I'm aware of allows this.
am not sure how you can investigate this. There are hundreds and thousands of these type oppurtunites every week. Its about timing your plays and where you are funded at. It's not the Pinny lean, its the good number lean and that is usually is Pinny cause they have the best number. You use them as a barometer of the market. They handicap for you. If you always get a better number then that number you will win.
I did the Pinny lean for 2 years and that resulted in what I would estimate too be 20,000 bets and I won at a 2% rate give or take with no opinion on the games at all. I know at least 3 other players who have done the same exact thing and will agree with the results. Go to Fezzik's place and check out the fezzdaq based on the Pinny lean and see his results.
Simon Noble (the head man at Pinnacle) has been quoted in saying if you add 10 cents too every loss a WINNING player at his site over a significagnt amount of plays has he would then become a losing player, every single one of them. He himself has written about the Pinny lean many times. The Pinny lean (or whatever you want too call it) states if youo get a better number then the closing line by a certain amount means you will win. The closing line hits 50/50 on favorite, underdog, over , under over millions of plays. If you always get a better number then the closing line how cant you be considerably better? This explains why Pinny lean (or consensus lean works)
I am not saying it is a huge edge, it is a small edge but an edge now less. Ask anyone who scalps for a living or had scalped they will tell you they are down lifetime at Pinny and up a significant amount at other books. That tells you right there. That is all the dats you really need. It's work and can be time consuming but you keep betting good numbers you will win. If you bet widely avaibile numbers at close you wont.
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what happens is you are going to win 55% at square book and 50% at Pinny (losing) but combined youo would be at 53%, enough for a profit. Your profit would be much greater if you eliminated the Pinny sharp number. You would be at 55%. That is all I am saying. Not sure what everyone is so touchy about.
I scalped quite awhile and thankfully was told by fezzik, cutter and a few other very well known sharps too quit playing back at Pinny and my profits would rise. I did and they did. I am just trying too share this information. I have talked about it a lot in the past if you search under Pinny lean. It just means you are getting a better then average number, average number over the longhaul wins 50%, you number at square out will win more at Pinny it will win 50% (unless you beat Pinny number at close also). Getting a great number is the ENTIRE KEY TO GAMBLING. I dont think anyone deisagrees with that. You dont really need to handicap at all. I didnt no more then 5 CBB players and won every cbb month for 2 years doing this.
This has me baffled. I am not sure what we are arguing about.
Let me setup a hypothetical situation: Lets say you wake up during the NFL season on a Thursday morning and look at the lines and you see the Buffal Bills are favored by -7.5 EVERYWHERE except at one book you are in and at that book they are -4. Now you have no opinion on this game. You obviously decide to take Buffalo -4 right then and there.
Okay come gameday on Sunday every book has that same game now at Buffalo -10. You have no opinion on this game. Would you just keep the -4 or buy back, locking in a profit with a scalp right before kickoff at Pinny (or anywhere else) at the NORMAL CONSENSUS NUMBER of +10? Now lets say this happens with 10 different games every every Thurday the entire football season. At the end of the year who do you think is going to win more money the guy who just bets the bad numbers (the -4) only every week or the guy who scalps out and gives back some of this great number?
You will absolutely crush the -4 version of this bet over time. This is why EVERYONE I KNOW HAS BEAT SIA thru the years. SIA take stances like this and people exploit them. Now just looking at that +10 on its own. You will not win that 2nd bet (unless it is a unique number itself and they arent at the close at Pinny) enough too show a profit with it. This is why people lose when scalping at Pinny. They give back part of a great number for a widely avaivilbile number that is so difficult too beat.
So you will be reloading up at Pinny every few weeks, for what? So you can have enough money in your account too keep making this +10 every week. Wouldnt it be better to not make the +10 bet and just keep the -4 bet only? You have too look at these 2 bets on their own.
That is what I am saying. I am not sure what others are getting at when presented with this sitiuation.
Okay come gameday on Sunday every book has that same game now at Buffalo -10. You have no opinion on this game. Would you just keep the -4 or buy back, locking in a profit with a scalp right before kickoff at Pinny (or anywhere else) at the NORMAL CONSENSUS NUMBER of +10? Now lets say this happens with 10 different games every every Thurday the entire football season. At the end of the year who do you think is going to win more money the guy who just bets the bad numbers (the -4) only every week or the guy who scalps out and gives back some of this great number?
You will absolutely crush the -4 version of this bet over time. This is why EVERYONE I KNOW HAS BEAT SIA thru the years. SIA take stances like this and people exploit them. Now just looking at that +10 on its own. You will not win that 2nd bet (unless it is a unique number itself and they arent at the close at Pinny) enough too show a profit with it. This is why people lose when scalping at Pinny. They give back part of a great number for a widely avaivilbile number that is so difficult too beat.
So you will be reloading up at Pinny every few weeks, for what? So you can have enough money in your account too keep making this +10 every week. Wouldnt it be better to not make the +10 bet and just keep the -4 bet only? You have too look at these 2 bets on their own.
That is what I am saying. I am not sure what others are getting at when presented with this sitiuation.
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I've been scalping for a while now. What I try to do is lose at the shit books and win at the good books. This allows me to keep on getting nice bonuses from the shit books. I have not seen any statistically significant advantage over a long term sample of plays saying that it would be better to play just the sharp book side or just the square book side.
The info I am talking about was randomly collected, and with the pinny side hitting only between 50-51% I can say with 99% certainty from that sample (because it is so large) that there is no long term advantage betting the Pinny lean. Is it possible that when doing this, my friend came upon a statistical outlier? Sure. But there is a less than 1% chance of that.
I'm not attacking you, just relating what I found. If you can win long-term, good for you. But the numbers given to me say otherwise with over 99% accuracy
See, under this scenario I agree, but that is not the scenario presented.
If I am reading you right, your argument is don't try to scalp the Pinny number and just instead bet the other side. My experience with sharp books (unfortunately I started scalping not long after Pinny no longer became an option to most of US players) and my friend's numbers from the Pinny lean say that this strategy doesn't work. Granted, my numbers rely almost exclusively on NFL and CFB, but my friend varied his Pinny lean numbers a lot more. The data and numbers I have do not support this. Like I said, if you are winning this way great for you, but the numbers I have seen don't show it.
Okay that is fine. You are reading me exactly right now. That is what I have been saying since the beginning. I am not attacking you either. Good healthy debate is all it is. Thankfully some of us can handle this, you and I can.
I was just trying to help you from what I have gathered. I dont know what else too say. Scalping can be very profitable, you are correct. All I want you too do is get back with me in a year and tell me how much you are up or down at Pinny and at square books. I have yet too find anyne who has beat Pinny and lost too the square book overtime scalping. Lok at Fisheads results how much he was down ant Pinny, 250k. Well FH is a winning gambler so he is winnig somehwere. I noticed the exact same thing when I scalped, beating square book, losing too pinny. That was all I was saying. People would be better off just making the bad bet. I dont know what to say other then that. I have 2 years and 40,000 bets and know a handful of guys that would disagree with you. Maybe our definition of the "pinny lean" is different. Anything that is clearly scalpable with the sharp pinny line is the pinny lean.
I have one question for you: If you did my above example 1,000 times you dont think you would be up just bettig at bad number by a considerable amount of money and down at the Pinny bet side (which is the razor sharp number)? You have me confused now. You are saying that you believe that in my example that you would win the Buffalo -4 just 51% of the time? the Buffalo -4 would win at about what rate and the +10 at whatever sharp book also wins 51% or so? This is how guys like try try try wins all his contest and Fezzik won the Hilton, they respected the market and let it make the plays for them. They make their plays against stale lines or try too. This why everyone gets booted from SIA, for winning too much from getting a great number there, that is all they do there. Its not from capping but from getting good numbers because good numbers win over 52.4%.
Do you agree with this? The closing line over time hits 50% on everything, favorites, underdogs, overs and unders? Now if you have a BETTER NUMBER THEN THAT EVERYTIME (and you do because that is the whole point with it) your percentage would rise considerably?
There is no doubt one can win at scalping but the second number has too win over 52.4% on its own for it too be worth playing the second number, if not it is better too only keep the first number and play just that or you are cutting into your profits. My whole point from the beginning is that people's 2nd bet is usually against Pinny (not always but becuase it is the best number availbile they play there) and it is against a number that doesnt win over 52.4% and with that being the case it is not smart too play back at there unless your 2nd number is great also. The number is the key with gambling, not the teams, etc... Eventually the number is only thing that matters.
Great thread is right!!!
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The thing about your example that I didn't like is that it's very very uncommon to see a 6 point line swing in the NFL. If I'm getting 6 points off the closing line, I'm not going to scalp that. And yes, I absolutely think you are going to beat the line more than 52.4% of the time on a 6 point difference, but those are uncommon in NFL. That's not really what I'm saying though.
My concerns are more about a half point or very small difference or even a price difference. Say that everywhere else Buffalo is -4.5, but they are -4 at Pinny. Or that Buff is -4.5 at -105 or -110 everywhere but is +100 at Pinny. Those are the Pinny leans I am discussing. Not these monstrous point shifts where yes it is dumb to take the other side.
I will say I haven't scalped as long as you, and since I only really know football and some hockey, that's all I have scalped. This season, however, I am actually going to leave my money offshore and scalp other sports as well. I will let you know the numbers I get by the end of the NBA season.
My concerns are more about a half point or very small difference or even a price difference. Say that everywhere else Buffalo is -4.5, but they are -4 at Pinny. Or that Buff is -4.5 at -105 or -110 everywhere but is +100 at Pinny. Those are the Pinny leans I am discussing. Not these monstrous point shifts where yes it is dumb to take the other side.
I will say I haven't scalped as long as you, and since I only really know football and some hockey, that's all I have scalped. This season, however, I am actually going to leave my money offshore and scalp other sports as well. I will let you know the numbers I get by the end of the NBA season.
Excellent debate gentlemen...I think the answer depends on the line difference. Simon Noble said (and I quote) "You will be a long-term winner if you consistently find an off-market spread or total which is 1.5 points better than our price...The players taking a number 1 to 1.5 points worse than the first takers are likely to lose in the long run." So in these situations Ice is probably correct in saying that it would be better to just play the square book and not scalp at Pinny. However, in situations where the line differs by 1/2 a point or no points and just the juice, it probably pays to scalp, as the results are probably 50/50 as Hines claims due to the small difference in the number.
Iceman:
You are correct in theory that playing at Pinny is devastating (for me at least). However I was fortunate enough to have a huge credit line back in the day so I was able to make many plays like this:
Pitt -5.5 11,000 / 10000 at other 4 or 5 other books (chopped up) and then come in with something like this at Pinnacle Bmore +5.5 9000/10,250. I normally didn't like to lose more than 2k on any decision (to not run the risk of ruin) but as you can see I was hoping to lose at Pinnacle. The ease of buying all most all of my bets in one fail swoop was just so nice and easy. But I would have been better off never buying back anything at Pinnacle in my career however I didn't have 500k laying around for a bad run.
You are correct in theory that playing at Pinny is devastating (for me at least). However I was fortunate enough to have a huge credit line back in the day so I was able to make many plays like this:
Pitt -5.5 11,000 / 10000 at other 4 or 5 other books (chopped up) and then come in with something like this at Pinnacle Bmore +5.5 9000/10,250. I normally didn't like to lose more than 2k on any decision (to not run the risk of ruin) but as you can see I was hoping to lose at Pinnacle. The ease of buying all most all of my bets in one fail swoop was just so nice and easy. But I would have been better off never buying back anything at Pinnacle in my career however I didn't have 500k laying around for a bad run.
I pretty much agree with this. I think Ice is more thinking about using Pinny to get on early lines that are going to move and then holding onto the bet rather than betting the other side later. What I do 98% of the time is bet both sides at the exact same time and have noticed no significant patterns. If Ice is talking about jumping on openers and staying on them after the move (a good sized move), even if scalps and middles are available, than I understand and agree with him
Reduced juice, for most players, is a far greater benefit than a good line. The line only comes into play a tiny percentage of the time. Reduced juice, by contrast, comes into play on literally every play you make. Even when you lose you win with reduced juice. When you throw in the chance to SELL points, so that all or most of your bets are actually at odds on, you've reached a point at which, if you know what you're doing it becomes almost difficult to lose over the long term.
There's a reason every book out there allows you to BUY points but only one allows you to SELL them. It is unfortunate this point has gotten lost in arguments over scalping that are irrelevant to most players.
There's a reason every book out there allows you to BUY points but only one allows you to SELL them. It is unfortunate this point has gotten lost in arguments over scalping that are irrelevant to most players.
And my whole point was " HE IS SCALPING " . To many of you out their try to make things to compicated with your leans, your square plays,public is on this and on that , yada yada, etc. Its not that complicated that your making it out to be, I could go on and on too, but will just stop. You can be surprised by this all you want, and I will say again GL on your efforts.
I know exactly what he is doing. I have said that since the beginning and have explained why not scalping this play is THE SMARTER MOVE.
I just finished a huge post explaning how his ROI would be so much higher my way but I figured screw it I may as well erase it, it's not worth it.
You are right it isnt about public this or leans or whatever, it is all about math and if we dont use it correctly we lessen our chances for success at this. Was just trying too help someone out by explaining something I am so grateful was explained to me in the past.
All I can say is good luck on your efforts also.
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I completely disagree with You Iceman when you say getting a great number is the ENTIRE KEY TO GAMBLING. You may win that way, but in my opinion, there is a MUCH, MUCH better gambling philosophy that is FAR SUPERIOR to getting a great number.
The ENTIRE KEY TO GAMLING in my opinion is HARD CORE RESEARCH AND SPECIALIZATION in 1 or 2 sports.
Specialization and hard core research are Far superior to getting a great number period!!!
Pick a sport and live it, drink it, eat it, breathe it!!! This is absolutely your best chance to win money at gambling, in my opinion.
I went 35 months bankroll only following this philosophy and absolutely killed the books, including Pinnacle.
Do you think you could do what you're doing paying all expenses out of you're bankroll? I did! Could you do it without any help from the girlfriend?
The ENTIRE KEY TO GAMLING in my opinion is HARD CORE RESEARCH AND SPECIALIZATION in 1 or 2 sports.
Specialization and hard core research are Far superior to getting a great number period!!!
Pick a sport and live it, drink it, eat it, breathe it!!! This is absolutely your best chance to win money at gambling, in my opinion.
I went 35 months bankroll only following this philosophy and absolutely killed the books, including Pinnacle.
Do you think you could do what you're doing paying all expenses out of you're bankroll? I did! Could you do it without any help from the girlfriend?
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I agree I know the whole key to this is how hard you work and the only reason I have won is just that.
But getting a good number is huge and if you are doing things right you will get a good number because the market will agree with you, confirming your play.
I have beaten Pinnacle more then any book excluding SIA in my lifetime.
I have won for 30 months of doing this and other then my GF making the house payment now I pay all my bills. We are a team and have always been that but too answer your question without a doubt but my current setup allows for me too be able to take advantage f growing my bankroll. That is the main reason why I quit a 100k job too do this. Bottom line our/the money it is all coming from the same spot when it is all said in done at the end of the day.
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