Who's With Me On Alabama +10 in the SEC CG

[woodypaige]

from what I understand from this forum Florida is the greatest team in the history of college football. gotta take the gators (wink, just want everyone to jump on the bandagon so I get +11)

I'm a alabama fan and even I know The line is 10 for a reason, just like it was 10 for Ok vs Ok St, where it was close until thw last few minutes.
Line will go down by gametime and Florida will win and cover.

 

[sarcean]

I'm a alabama fan and even I know The line is 10 for a reason, just like it was 10 for Ok vs Ok St, where it was close until thw last few minutes.
Line will go down by gametime and Florida will win and cover.

The line is 10 not because the books think they will win by 10. The line is 10 because so many people are sackriding UF that the only way that they could even try to get even money on both sides of the bet was to put the line this high.

 

[rolltide]

The line is 10 not because the books think they will win by 10. The line is 10 because so many people are sackriding UF that the only way that they could even try to get even money on both sides of the bet was to put the line this high.

that's exactly it

I thought the line would be around 8 even with the overinflated public opinion of Florida. I haven't seen a team with this much of an "untouchable" perception since the 92 canes

Woody, Oklahoma was favored by 6-7 vs Texas and got whooped so don't think the lines are based on what Vegas thinks will happen rather what they think the public would expect the line should be. Then, like now, the whole forum said Okie were untouchable and jumped on the Sooners...and lost.

 

[whalewager]

Betting Fla at 9.5

People on this board are too worried about making sure they look smart by taking dogs.

Fla is the better team. At least 10 points better.

Not big but there is no way you get me to Bet against Fla at 10 or under.

 

[Rolltideroll]

The line is 10 points because Florida is sexier.Its as simple of that.There are a lot of bettors that probably do not watch but a small part of the gators and tide games.They turn on sportcenter and the see The Gators recap with 40 and 50 yard strikes and high scores.Then the show the Alabama game with a two yard and 6 yard Td run.There is nothing exciting about that.

 

[A2Gator]

So I've heard that teasing college ball isn't the greatest idea, but...

Teasing Alabama while the line is still high may be the best way to go here, assuming you can get another side you like just as much.

Personally I'm going to play a 10pt teaser with Alabama +20, Oklahoma -6.5, and Ball State -4.5. That looks pretty solid to me. I might even bet on the Florida line after it moves down as well. Any thoughts?

(oh and by the way, go gators!)

 

[whalewager]

No way I tease a double digit dog.

 

[A2Gator]

Even when it is the #1 team playing on a neutral field?

 

[cover2win]

Exactly, I'm surprised more people aren't screaming the T-word

What's the T-Word?

 

[whalewager]

Even when. Better games to choose from.

 

[YourAllAmerican]

Betting Fla at 9.5

People on this board are too worried about making sure they look smart by taking dogs.

Fla is the better team. At least 10 points better.

Not big but there is no way you get me to Bet against Fla at 10 or under.

Dead on. There is a lot of overthinking going on with this line. Florida is stronger on both sides of the ball, has a giant advantage at quarterback and Nick Saban has nothing on Urban Meyer. The Tide has not seen an offense anywhere near the caliber of the Gators this season, but Florida has faced and blown away defenses not much of a step down from 'Bama's.

If the Crimson Tide stay within a pair of touchdowns I'll be very surprised. I think they're simply overmatched here.

 

[A2Gator]

What's the T-Word?

Trap. That said it has been stated several times that the line reflects most accurately the need for bookmakers to get closer to even money on both sides. The line seems high because it is high, thanks to Florida completely wrecking everyone the last however many games.

 

[Brubaker]

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR vAlign=bottom><TD height=40>SEC Championship Football Game History</TD><TD align=right></TD></TR><TR><TD colSpan=2><HR class=page_title_pin SIZE=1></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>

<TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY></TBODY></TABLE><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class=sportPicksBgL1><TABLE cellSpacing=0 cellPadding=0 width="100%" border=0><TBODY><TR><TD class="yeallowBg2 sportPicksBorderR2 fourleft" colSpan=6>
</TD></TR><TR class="table_title sportPicksBg"><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Year</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Location</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Matchup</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Line</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Result</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Favorite/ Underdog</TD><TR class=notwhite><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">2007</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Atlanta, GA</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">LSU-Tennessee</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">LSU -7</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">LSU 21-14</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Push</TD></TR><TR class=tanbg2><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">2006</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Atlanta, GA</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Arkansas-Florida</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Florida -3</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Florida 38-28</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Favorite</TD></TR><TR class=notwhite><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">2005</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Atlanta, GA</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">LSU-Georgia</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">LSU -2.5</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Georgia 34-14</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Underdog</TD></TR><TR class=tanbg2><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">2004</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Atlanta, GA</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Auburn-Tennessee</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Auburn -14.5</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Auburn 38-28</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Underdog</TD></TR><TR class=notwhite><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">2003</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Atlanta, GA</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Georgia-LSU</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">LSU -3</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">LSU 34-13</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Favorite</TD></TR><TR class=tanbg2><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">2002</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Atlanta, GA</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Arkansas-Georgia</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Georgia -8</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Georgia 30-3</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Favorite</TD></TR><TR class=notwhite><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">2001</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Atlanta, GA</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">LSU-Tennessee</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Tennessee -7</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">LSU 31-20</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Underdog</TD></TR><TR class=tanbg2><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">2000</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Atlanta, GA</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Auburn-Florida</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Florida -9.5</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Florida 28-6</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Favorite</TD></TR><TR class=notwhite><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">1999</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Atlanta, GA</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Alabama-Florida</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Florida -7</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Alabama 34-7</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Underdog</TD></TR><TR class=tanbg2><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">1998</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Atlanta, GA</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Tennessee-Miss. State</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Tennessee -14</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Tennessee 24-14</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Underdog</TD></TR><TR class=notwhite><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">1997</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Atlanta, GA</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Tennessee-Auburn</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Tennessee -7</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Tennessee 30-29</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Underdog</TD></TR><TR class=tanbg2><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">1996</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Atlanta, GA</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Alabama-Florida</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Florida -14.5</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Florida 45-30</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Favorite</TD></TR><TR class=notwhite><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">1995</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Atlanta, GA</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Arkansas-Florida</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Florida -24</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Florida 34-3</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Favorite</TD></TR><TR class=tanbg2><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">1994</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Atlanta, GA</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Alabama-Florida</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Florida -7</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Florida 24-23</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Underdog</TD></TR><TR class=notwhite><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">1993</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Birmingham, AL</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Alabama-Florida</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Florida -4</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Florida 28-13</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Favorite</TD></TR><TR class=tanbg2><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">1992</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Birmingham, AL</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Alabama-Florida</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Alabama -10</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Alabama 28-21</TD><TD class="sportPicksBorderL fourleft">Underdog</TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE></TD></TR></TBODY></TABLE>​

 

[Low Rollin' 'Noles Fan]

At first glance I say Florida smokes 'Bama by 21.

But that's because nobody likes to look at line play, and I think Bama has a big advantage on both sides of the ball. Their O-line is great, as is their Dline. Only team in the conference with arguably a better D-line is Ole Miss, and we see how they did. UF's D-line is nothing special, and I could see Bama being able to go 3-4 yards all the way down the field.

And last but not least, don't discount Mr. Julio Jones. Kid is a stud, and no freaking freshman or sophomore in UF's secondary can match up with him 1 vs. 1. Nobody.

Two weeks ago and up until two days ago I said I was gonna hammer the shit out of UF in this game. Call it wishful thinking, but now I'm thinking about going the other way. Bama has been consistently underrated this year (by myself included), while UF has been consitently overrated this year. Double-digit dogs in the SEC historically = $$$.

Push that line up Gator backers...if I can get Bama +11 I'm rolling with it.

 

[BenLaw47]

At first glance I say Florida smokes 'Bama by 21.

But that's because nobody likes to look at line play, and I think Bama has a big advantage on both sides of the ball. Their O-line is great, as is their Dline. Only team in the conference with arguably a better D-line is Ole Miss, and we see how they did. UF's D-line is nothing special, and I could see Bama being able to go 3-4 yards all the way down the field.

And last but not least, don't discount Mr. Julio Jones. Kid is a stud, and no freaking freshman or sophomore in UF's secondary can match up with him 1 vs. 1. Nobody.

Two weeks ago and up until two days ago I said I was gonna hammer the shit out of UF in this game. Call it wishful thinking, but now I'm thinking about going the other way. Bama has been consistently underrated this year (by myself included), while UF has been consitently overrated this year. Double-digit dogs in the SEC historically = $$$.

Push that line up Gator backers...if I can get Bama +11 I'm rolling with it.

If by consistently overrated you mean beating the shit out of teams such as yours, including 30 pt + victories, then yes they are consistently overrated. You Nole fans are too much. When in doubt, you all tend to make really irrational stupid statements. No one can take you seriously.

 

[howar054]

Roll tide

 

[howar054]

Alabama
Crimson Tide are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a S.U. win.
Crimson Tide are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Crimson Tide are 4-0 ATS in last 4 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in previous game.
Crimson Tide are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 conference games.
Crimson Tide are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Crimson Tide are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games following a ATS win.
Crimson Tide are 5-0 ATS in last 5 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in previous game.
Crimson Tide are 6-1 ATS in last 7 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Crimson Tide are 4-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

#60 rushing offense
#59 passing offense
#75 total offense
#64 scoring offense
#28 rushing defense
#48 passing defense
#31 Total defense
#27 scoring defense

With Florida being weak on passing defense, this will open up the play action for Julio Jones and Nick Walker making Florida’s defense play on their heels and Bama controlling the time of possession which will be very key in this game.

Florida also has not faced a defense with the smarts or tenacity of Alabama’s defense, look for Florida’s offense to be confused as Kevin Steele calls blitz packages they haven’t used all year.
Alabama has ran all over the #12, #16, and #23 ranked rushing defenses in LSU, UGA, and Clemson. I see them able to do it against FLA’s #10 ranked one as well


Florida
Gators are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a S.U. win.
Gators are 4-0 ATS in last 4 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in previous game.
Gators are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 games following a SU win of more than 20 points.
Gators are 5-0 ATS in last 5 games after accumulating more than 200 yards rushing in previous game.
Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Gators are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 conference games.
Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after scoring more than 40 points in their previous game.
Gators are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a ATS win.
Gators are 6-1 ATS in last 7 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game.
Gators are 14-3 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
#23 rushing offense
#38 passing offense
#14 total offense
#3 scoring offense
#10 rushing defense
#98 passing defense
#41 total defense
#46 scoring defense
With Percy Harvin out, it could cause Florida to be inconsistent and get down early losing their focus and confidence.

 

[Low Rollin' 'Noles Fan]

If by consistently overrated you mean beating the shit out of teams such as yours, including 30 pt + victories, then yes they are consistently overrated. You Nole fans are too much. When in doubt, you all tend to make really irrational stupid statements. No one can take you seriously.

UF has played a weak schedule this year.

UGA? Incredibly overrated. Just got dominated by the ACC's 3rd/4th best team.

LSU? They lost to freaking Arkansas.

Tennessee? They flat-out suck.

Vandy? They just got dominatd by Wake Forest.

Hell, even Ole Miss got beat by Wake Forest.

FSU? Well, as a Gator fan, I think you'll be the first to call them average.

Miami? FSU beat them. So did half the ACC.

Who else? Hawaii? The Citadel? Kentucky?

The toughest team UF has played this year besides Ole Miss is UGA, and even they were highly overrated. And UGA's lines were nowhere near the level of Ole Miss or Bama. UF has been running up the score on weak opponents, and every ESPN analyst has blown their load over it.

Yes, UF is a hell of a team. I said preseason and all through the season that they're probably the best in the country. Unstoppable offensive talent. But they haven't freaking played anybody, and they get way too much credit for what they've done so far. Hence, overrated.

Their defense is nothing special, and you're nothing but a homer if you say otherwise. Dunlap and Spikes are solid, and there is a lot of young talent, but they aren't anything special. To undisciplined and young to be great.

Great offenses cover spreads. Great defenses win championships.

Congrats on sounding like a typical arrogant prick, btw.

 

[howar054]

Love it "LOW ROLLIN' 'NOLES FAN!" good write up

 

[celtics33]

Florida all day.