Who do you think is going to win the Presidential Election?

[MAGAking1]

If it is skewed to the Dems (why was 2018 polling accurate? why was 2016 polling accurate nationally?) and polling is what is influencing the line and it is wrong, then why doesn't everyone just bet 5% of their money on Trump? This is a massive inefficiency.

We'll have to agree to disagree on the whole "No way to accurately poll support of Trump", I don't think this is nearly as taboo of an admission as Trump supporters believe. In 2016 it made sense as he was possibly a Johnny come lately that was going to be gone as fast as he came. Now he is the President. I should amend my statement a bit though, I think it is possible this is true on a small level but likely statistically insignificant.

If someone says to me "The polling is highly flawed and Trump is going to win", I can't prove to them the polling is flawed until the results come in. So don't really have too much more of a rebuttal than that. If the polling is flawed, it isn't for nefarious reasons is really my main point though.

Luckily, we'll findout in 6 days what the correct answer is.

Disagree,, it is a bigger taboo than before. I know it doesnt seem that way when you see all the Trump rallies and boat parades etc. because it is being done in unison with large groups of supporters.

But people are reluctant to show support when they might suffer consequences and they sure as heck are going to be leary of telephone polls. Even if I trust you are a legit poller and not someone "evil" I still might not trust that you will keep my info secure.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Disagree,, it is a bigger taboo than before. I know it doesnt seem that way when you see all the Trump rallies and boat parades etc. because it is being done in unison with large groups of supporters.

But people are reluctant to show support when they might suffer consequences and they sure as heck are going to be leary of telephone polls. Even if I trust you are a legit poller and not someone "evil" I still might not trust that you will keep my info secure.

Fair enough. I think that was way more taboo in 2016, his campaign was so slash and burn that time around. A force of nature if you will. Now he's pretty much just running as a regular Republican (I suppose this could be debated, but his campaign is far more conventional this time around IMO)

Polling shows the number of undecided voters out there is significantly down from 2016 at this juncture, but maybe all this unrest in Philly leads to them breaking to Trump last minute. That will be tough to quantify after the fact, but I would say he definitely just recovered a fumble in the 4th quarter to use another sports analogy. Surreal timing. Almost like that dude was told by some GOP handlers "Act like a fuckin moron, get shot, we'll take care of your 7 kids"

 

[crudebar]

Still offering +170 on anyone that wants Trump. Around 30 people on here said he will win but only around a handful have actually put their money where their mouth is....at lest with me.

 

[RenoChazz]

I would agree that it's way more taboo now than in 2016. I've seen people get disowned by their own families on facebook this time around. I don't think it's enough to overcome the margin of error though. We will see in a week though.

 

[PatsFan1283]

I would agree that it's way more taboo now than in 2016. I've seen people get disowned by their own families on facebook this time around. I don't think it's enough to overcome the margin of error though. We will see in a week though.

I may be overlooking that. MagKing point about support in a crowd or around like minded people is totally different than telling a pollster or people who aren't in lockstep with you could be valid. I think people have short memories and forget how crazy Trump 2016 run was though.

Agree though, I don't think it'll be statistically significant. But certainly wouldn't be first time I was wrong. Or last.

 

[crudebar]

For the polls being so off. Why were the polls showing Trump surging going into the final week. Clinton's lead was 1.9 nationally at this point and she was campaigning in Michigan Nov.1

Polls were off by not nearly as far off as people perceived.

The larger bias was someone like Trump simply couldn't win the presidency.

Same as a large number of people thought he would never win the Republican nomination even though he basically dominated in polls from beginning to end.

 

[SgtLanquel]

If "polls only show what the pollsters want" then FOXnews would have Tiny up 5 nationally instead of down nine

 

[crudebar]

Pollsters, at lest the credible ones, want one thing, to be correct.

 

[crudebar]

Are you trolling? They don't care if they're correct.

I hope you don't drink. Because you truly cant afford to lose anymore brain cells.

 

[crudebar]

Not true whatsoever. I watch Fox every evening. Most of their polls have Trump down across the map. The truth shall set all of us free.

You can't even comprehend what SGT is saying.

 

[REDEYE]

I've been saying this for over a year now in poly forum. Dems and now Biden are unelectable... Trump wins easily imo.. No reason to try and argue this out , arguing won't make any difference at this point.. Votes will determine the outcome..

 

[crudebar]

I've been saying this for over a year now in poly forum. Dems and now Biden are unelectable... Trump wins easily imo.. No reason to try and argue this out , arguing won't make any difference at this point.. Votes will determine the outcome..

You want that other $500 Red?

 

[SgtLanquel]

You can't even comprehend what SGT is saying.

It's been a very troubling seven months since assuring us Covid19 would be "over in a few weeks"

 

[crudebar]

It's been a very troubling seven months since assuring us Covid19 would be "over in a few weeks"

His reading comprehension is that of perhaps a 1st grader. You tell him the fox polls have Trump down, then he says he disagrees with you because fox polls have trump down. Hilarious if it wasn't so sad.

He actually views himself as intelligent.

But with that said, back to business.

 

[crudebar]

I mean, I give you credit for taking wagers but betting into what should be an even line is far from intelligent. The value play is Trump but if you win, congrats. I'll be watching from the sidelines with interest on how this plays out.

Hooked on phonics. Think about it.

 

[Dr.Love]

If that's all you can do is insult a guy's intelligence you never met before, it says a lot about you but do your thing.

It’s actually rather easy to gauge a person’s level of intelligence without ever meeting them. Reading a large enough sample size of a person’s posts on a forum just one example.

 

[crudebar]

If that's all you can do is insult a guy's intelligence you never met before, it says a lot about you but do your thing.

You could always send me a picture of yourself and i'll see what else i can do.

Lets just end this for tonight. I truly don't care. But you seem to consistently interject yourself into things that don't concern you. You also do a thing that i have always hated as a gambler, you tell other people what value is, or tell other people how to bet, when you wouldn't dare bet it yourself.

You will be an "i told you so guy" if trumps wins and a "this is why i didn't bet trump" if he loses. You are simply and transparently one of those. Your kind is very highly annoying.

 

[PatsFan1283]

The value play is Trump because it should be an even line but EF personally believes Biden/Harris will win. Hmm, ok.

Also, he votes that he thinks Trump will win. Huh? What?

This dude gotta be smoking crack with Hunter Biden. Sgt, get your boy some rehab.

 

[CHOPTALK]

I think the panthers will win by 2 touchdowns tomorrow night but I think Atlanta +2 is the smart play

 

[VIEJODINOSAUR]

I think the panthers will win by 2 touchdowns tomorrow night but I think Atlanta +2 is the smart play

I see what you did....very clever....