Of course I'm not short on opinions. Just wanted to let others weigh in first. I think Biden will win, this won't be a popular opinion here but I think polling does strives for accuracy (i.e, it is on the up and up and is an industry where results/success reward you while failures marginalize you just like any other) and aggregating polling 6 days before the election does often give you a fair approximation of what is going to happen. For instance in the 2018 mid-terms, the polls were basically accurate. Polling being slightly off in 3 swing states in 2016 isn't going to change my opinion on that. You would rather be up in the polls than down, just like you would rather be -6 in an NFL game than +6. Even though +6 can get there and win outright.
Some other points why I think Biden will win
-I don't really buy the thesis that Trump voters don't want to admit they support him, he's the President now. Any stigma that was there in 2016 just isn't there in 2020 at the same level.
-I think ballot harvesting is a massive advantage for Dems given the ground game advantages and support they have in population dense areas. This seems pretty easy to crush if you have massive amounts of money and aren't incompetent. Once I started thinking about this more, it just made a lot of sense it was a real boon. So even they can probably pull this off.
-Because Mnunchin and Pelosi could never reach a deal, the GOP senate not even being close to either 1 of their proposals went well under the radar. To me, this is just the GOP making the calculation that Trump is likely going to lose and they want to take a stand of fiscal conservatism while he is in office so that they can say that this was their stance before Biden took office when it comes time to block the Dems spending agenda. Basically they're playing for next season.
Reasons why Trump may win even if I think he won't
-The enthusiasm/turnout just isn't there to vote against someone you hate the same way it is to vote for someone you like. Biden has no enthusiasm, it all comes from opposition to Trump. I think this is probably enough for Biden to win, in our polarized modern political climate, voting against someone you hate goes a long way. Ask Hillary Clinton, who was crushed by voters that didn't like her or Trump very much. But it is possible love trumps hate, pun intended.
-I started this thread before the Philly fiasco really became news. Obviously this could be a very nice boon for Trump, Dem supporters/operatives gotta be kicking themselves with the timing of that. That could be the wartime layup that Trump needs. Or it could be too late but it is certainly a positive for his chances.
(I'm not talking policy in this post much because I think how people feel about that is largely priced into the polls and what I said about other aspects of the race bakes how people feel about policy into that)
