Not true, he's been attacked for four straight years. There's no objectivity or honesty at all from democrats or their media. I'm even called a white supremist by the left, there's nothing comparable coming from the right
Trump is probably winning both traditional swing states, Florida and Ohio.
Biden may have given away Pennsylvania with his anti oil remarks. Fracking is the oil industry
Trump wins those three states, he's president. Anyone suggesting there's no path is simply uninformed.
Biden could win NY, IL & CA by 100 million votes, it does nothing to change the balance of power. National polls are meaningless
Biden may have given away Pennsylvania with his anti oil remarks. Fracking is the oil industry
Trump wins those three states, he's president. Anyone suggesting there's no path is simply uninformed.
Biden could win NY, IL & CA by 100 million votes, it does nothing to change the balance of power. National polls are meaningless
Yes, that is what gets me the most.
Yeah, hate Trump fine , I can understand
But to think that voting these Radicals in will somehow improve rights and democracy is lol at best.
Sure some blue haired punks and the hood rats will be happy but the middle class will be wrecked.
The notion that Trump divides is preposterous. The media and the politicians are the ones dividing.
Trump is very plainly not an authoritarian. He's let governors decide policies for their own states during this.
Joe Biden has already said if he's President then he will take power out of the governors' hands, or try to. I don't think that's constitutional, but it's pretty clear that Biden would take rights away from Americans, or try to.
Good God almighty, this is what we're dealing with
We can judge somewhat from certain neighborhoods
They need a large and one sided turnout
Of course I'm not short on opinions. Just wanted to let others weigh in first. I think Biden will win, this won't be a popular opinion here but I think polling does strives for accuracy (i.e, it is on the up and up and is an industry where results/success reward you while failures marginalize you just like any other) and aggregating polling 6 days before the election does often give you a fair approximation of what is going to happen. For instance in the 2018 mid-terms, the polls were basically accurate. Polling being slightly off in 3 swing states in 2016 isn't going to change my opinion on that. You would rather be up in the polls than down, just like you would rather be -6 in an NFL game than +6. Even though +6 can get there and win outright.
Some other points why I think Biden will win
-I don't really buy the thesis that Trump voters don't want to admit they support him, he's the President now. Any stigma that was there in 2016 just isn't there in 2020 at the same level.
-I think ballot harvesting is a massive advantage for Dems given the ground game advantages and support they have in population dense areas. This seems pretty easy to crush if you have massive amounts of money and aren't incompetent. Once I started thinking about this more, it just made a lot of sense it was a real boon. So even they can probably pull this off.
-Because Mnunchin and Pelosi could never reach a deal, the GOP senate not even being close to either 1 of their proposals went well under the radar. To me, this is just the GOP making the calculation that Trump is likely going to lose and they want to take a stand of fiscal conservatism while he is in office so that they can say that this was their stance before Biden took office when it comes time to block the Dems spending agenda. Basically they're playing for next season.
Reasons why Trump may win even if I think he won't
-The enthusiasm/turnout just isn't there to vote against someone you hate the same way it is to vote for someone you like. Biden has no enthusiasm, it all comes from opposition to Trump. I think this is probably enough for Biden to win, in our polarized modern political climate, voting against someone you hate goes a long way. Ask Hillary Clinton, who was crushed by voters that didn't like her or Trump very much. But it is possible love trumps hate, pun intended.
-I started this thread before the Philly fiasco really became news. Obviously this could be a very nice boon for Trump, Dem supporters/operatives gotta be kicking themselves with the timing of that. That could be the wartime layup that Trump needs. Or it could be too late but it is certainly a positive for his chances.
(I'm not talking policy in this post much because I think how people feel about that is largely priced into the polls and what I said about other aspects of the race bakes how people feel about policy into that)
If it is skewed to the Dems (why was 2018 polling accurate? why was 2016 polling accurate nationally?) and polling is what is influencing the line and it is wrong, then why doesn't everyone just bet 5% of their money on Trump? This is a massive inefficiency.
We'll have to agree to disagree on the whole "No way to accurately poll support of Trump", I don't think this is nearly as taboo of an admission as Trump supporters believe. In 2016 it made sense as he was possibly a Johnny come lately that was going to be gone as fast as he came. Now he is the President. I should amend my statement a bit though, I think it is possible this is true on a small level but likely statistically insignificant.
If someone says to me "The polling is highly flawed and Trump is going to win", I can't prove to them the polling is flawed until the results come in. So don't really have too much more of a rebuttal than that. If the polling is flawed, it isn't for nefarious reasons is really my main point though.
Luckily, we'll findout in 6 days what the correct answer is.
