Who do you think is going to win the Presidential Election?

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Who do you think is going to win the Presidential Election?


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Member
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I'm good with a $200 gentlemen's bet.

Okay. Seymour i'll then do $300 with you. LMK if you still want it and i'll add to list.
 

Nirvana Shill
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Okay. Seymour i'll then do $300 with you. LMK if you still want it and i'll add to list.

If Seymour wants the full 500 and that's all your offering , I will let him have it. He jumped on it first
 

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If Seymour wants the full 500 and that's all your offering , I will let him have it. He jumped on it first

My decision is you're more secure, based on posting up and what others have told me in private about you. Nothing against Seymour, but i am making an executive decision here.

Seymour can have the last $300. If he still wants that.

It's just to the point that without a post up i want these funds as secure as possible. I am truly not trying to offend anyone. I hope this can be respected.

edit: if this goes smoothly we can all open up a joint PP, venmo, etc account and bet against each other when we like different sides and fuck the sports books and the juice.
 

Home of the Cincinnati Criminals.
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My decision is you're more secure, based on posting up and what others have told me in private about you. Nothing against Seymour, but i am making an executive decision here.

Seymour can have the last $300. If he still wants that.

It's just to the point that without a post up i want these funds as secure as possible. I am truly not trying to offend anyone. I hope this can be respected.

edit: if this goes smoothly we can all open up a joint PP, venmo, etc account and bet against each other when we like different sides and fuck the sports books and the juice.

Seymour is solid.
 

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Trump is going to have to win PA, Texas, Florida, Ohio. He loses 1 of the 4 and it's games over. He loses 2 of the 4 and it's Biden approaching or exceeding 400 electoral votes.

Trump wins all 4 and it's game on. I would have it 55/45 Biden. Still the favorite but now we have a game.

the fact you believe Texas is in play is why you are a retard

Biden literally said he’d appoint Beto to steal people’s guns. Lol.

But if you think Texas is in play I’ll give you +200 on him up to $1000 risk. Let me know sweetie.
 

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New member
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the fact you believe Texas is in play is why you are a retard

Biden literally said he’d appoint Beto to steal people’s guns. Lol.

But if you think Texas is in play I’ll give you +200 on him up to $1000 risk. Let me know sweetie.

thought so :):)
 

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No it shouldn't, they're not independent variables.

States are highly correlated.

I was wonder if they were, that thought did come to mind. Would be for sure if it was added to Trump winning the election. How are they correlated? Is it a demographic thing?
 

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I was wonder if they were, that thought did come to mind. Would be for sure if it was added to Trump winning the election. How are they correlated? Is it a demographic thing?

Yeah, states with similar demographics are more correlated but all swing states somewhat correlated. If you outperform polls in 1 swing state then you are more likely to do so elsewhere.

No book would let you parlay states at the market prices.
 

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Over 20k views
Google must have got ahold of this thread and put it in its search results
 

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If you want to crack the code and access those elusive "shy Trump voters", ask people who they think will win the election or who their neighbors are voting for, NOT who they are voting for, as is the case with these laughable polls.

Oh look, The RX forum is picking Trump by 2/1... a +170 dog. What a surprise! When do you EVER see that?

You bet mainstream polls are wrong and the current line is nothing more than a reflection of that simplistic flawed view from the air, as opposed to what is actually happening on the ground.

RED EYE put the actual line at -300 Trump? I'd say that's pretty accurate based on real data we're seeing in early voting.

Because REAL polls (like this one) don't lie.

This poll isn't remotely scientific as the RX voters are overwhelmingly Republican.

As far as the silent Trump voters and the neighbors question. It is interesting, but I also think it may be a function of the 5 year media/politics narrative that Trump's base is the silent majority. If you say something enough times, people tend to believe it. I'd also say so much of Trump's support is tangible, you can see it in the rallies, the gatherings, the signs/bumper stickers, flags on trucks, etc so it is easy to feel he has more support than he does. Maybe this is relevant or maybe it is entirely anecdotal and can't be backed up by numbers.

Money raised, voter registration from young people and early voting trends would all be indicative of Dem enthusiasm.

But if people just think data is BS then I guess we'll see. Obviously there is no way to prove it isn't besides the final results.
 

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If you want to crack the code and access those elusive "shy Trump voters", ask people who they think will win the election or who their neighbors are voting for, NOT who they are voting for, as is the case with these laughable polls.

Oh look, The RX forum is picking Trump by 2/1... a +170 dog. What a surprise! When do you EVER see that?

You bet mainstream polls are wrong and the current line is nothing more than a reflection of that simplistic flawed view from the air, as opposed to what is actually happening on the ground.

RED EYE put the actual line at -300 Trump? I'd say that's pretty accurate based on real data we're seeing in early voting.

Because REAL polls (like this one) don't lie.

If only Fred Dalton Thompson had lived to read this post
 

Rx. Senior
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It is crazy that 37% of have said they think Biden will win. If anyone only looks at the facts, it becomes clear that Trump will win. In 2016, it was the biggest electoral college win since Raegan. He won the popular vote by many millions after taking out all of the illegal votes. Now that we have him as president, there cannot be any more illegal voting. In 2016 people only had the promise that he would Make America Great Again. Now in 2020, we have seen it for the past four years.
 

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