i wish i knew that stat when i took New Orleans last year opening up......
like Wash, but the more i think about it, G-men are the play, and i wrote down that if they won the superbowl against the pats that i would have G-men as my favorite team always!
Go Giants!
arty:
Me too. Betting New Orleans last year made me realize just how quick we forget last year. I mean New Orleans? Against the Colts at home? What a dumb bet. And you saw the result 41-10 Indy. Now Giants @ home off a Super Bowl win with all the confidence in the world against the worst team in the NFC East.
Giants or nothing or your going to be feeling lonely late Thursday night wondering how you bet the Skins.
Texans @ Steelers
I love the Texans this year as a team that can improve to about 9-7 and be in the wildcard picture towards the end and that immediatley came to mind when seeing this line of almost a touchdown. But, I quickly regained my composure and looked at where they were playing; @ Steelers. The Steelers routinely dominate midlevel-bad NFL teams when playing in Heinz and this game will be no exception. The Steelers are flying under the radar this year and I think that is just what they want.
Big Ben is ready for a big year with more then enough weapons at his disposal. He has guys like Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward, Heath Miller, Willie Parker, and now Limas Sweed and Rashard Mendenhall. There isn't much more to say. The Steelers will dominate the Texans in Week 1. Lock this one in now.
Steelers 28
Texans 10
Play:
Steelers -6.5 (4 Units)
I love the Texans this year as a team that can improve to about 9-7 and be in the wildcard picture towards the end and that immediatley came to mind when seeing this line of almost a touchdown. But, I quickly regained my composure and looked at where they were playing; @ Steelers. The Steelers routinely dominate midlevel-bad NFL teams when playing in Heinz and this game will be no exception. The Steelers are flying under the radar this year and I think that is just what they want.
Big Ben is ready for a big year with more then enough weapons at his disposal. He has guys like Santonio Holmes, Hines Ward, Heath Miller, Willie Parker, and now Limas Sweed and Rashard Mendenhall. There isn't much more to say. The Steelers will dominate the Texans in Week 1. Lock this one in now.
Steelers 28
Texans 10
Play:
Steelers -6.5 (4 Units)
I am a Steelers fan and I am a little nervous about the
HOU game. I like the Steelers to win, but I can see
a close game.
PGH is 1-1 against HOU.
The Steeles were 1-4 to close the season last year, including
the playoff loss to JAX.
The Steelers o-line is their weakness, allowing 53 sacks last year
(playoffs included).
Watching all their games this preseason, the line has not
improved much.
Despite the o-line woes, Big Ben had a probowl year last year.
From all indications (PGH beat writers) he is even better this year.
Ben will be challenged by his own line.
His favorite receiver is now Santonio Holmes.
Holmes looks ready to have a big year, this being his 3rd
year in the league. He had an impressive 18.1 yards /reception
in 07 with 942 yards and 8 TD's. Look for him to go over 1,100 yards
this year and have around 10 scores.
The running game is solid. Willie Parker has no ill effects after his
injury last year. Remember, Parker was the NFL leading rusher at the
time of his injury. Mendenhall is a good back, capable of running
inside and out for big gains. He had a fumble problem this preseason
and it has the team concerned. Turnovers can kill a team.
The defense is solid. The addition of Lamar Woodley to the
starting unit should help the pass rush. He had 4 sacks in limited
play last year. Fellow 2nd year LB, Lawrence Timmons, has had
a great training camp. He shows a burst of speed when blitzing
and has the coaches excited. He still needs to improve against
the run. A healthy Troy Polamalu (S) and Aaron Smith (DE) will
make this unit one of the top 5 in the NFL.
HOU lost their top DB in Dunta Robinson.
The Texans finished 25th against the pass last year.
They allowed 230 passing yards a game.
PGH was 24th in the league, passing the ball. No big advantage.
The Texans gave up 112 yards rushing/game (15th in NFL) the
Steelers ran for 126/game (9th). The key to the game is for
PGH to establish it's running game to keep pressure off Roethisberger.
HOU game. I like the Steelers to win, but I can see
a close game.
PGH is 1-1 against HOU.
The Steeles were 1-4 to close the season last year, including
the playoff loss to JAX.
The Steelers o-line is their weakness, allowing 53 sacks last year
(playoffs included).
Watching all their games this preseason, the line has not
improved much.
Despite the o-line woes, Big Ben had a probowl year last year.
From all indications (PGH beat writers) he is even better this year.
Ben will be challenged by his own line.
His favorite receiver is now Santonio Holmes.
Holmes looks ready to have a big year, this being his 3rd
year in the league. He had an impressive 18.1 yards /reception
in 07 with 942 yards and 8 TD's. Look for him to go over 1,100 yards
this year and have around 10 scores.
The running game is solid. Willie Parker has no ill effects after his
injury last year. Remember, Parker was the NFL leading rusher at the
time of his injury. Mendenhall is a good back, capable of running
inside and out for big gains. He had a fumble problem this preseason
and it has the team concerned. Turnovers can kill a team.
The defense is solid. The addition of Lamar Woodley to the
starting unit should help the pass rush. He had 4 sacks in limited
play last year. Fellow 2nd year LB, Lawrence Timmons, has had
a great training camp. He shows a burst of speed when blitzing
and has the coaches excited. He still needs to improve against
the run. A healthy Troy Polamalu (S) and Aaron Smith (DE) will
make this unit one of the top 5 in the NFL.
HOU lost their top DB in Dunta Robinson.
The Texans finished 25th against the pass last year.
They allowed 230 passing yards a game.
PGH was 24th in the league, passing the ball. No big advantage.
The Texans gave up 112 yards rushing/game (15th in NFL) the
Steelers ran for 126/game (9th). The key to the game is for
PGH to establish it's running game to keep pressure off Roethisberger.
Nice info there but...
Wasn't the 1-4 end of the season mostly because of losing guys like Parker, Polamalu, Smith, Hampton, and others to injuries though?
Plus they had 2 losses I beleive at home last year, both to Jax. Houston doesn't play well on the road.
I think you are being a little skeptical as I think this can turn out much like last years where they blew out the Browns who turned out pretty decent to end the year.
Wasn't the 1-4 end of the season mostly because of losing guys like Parker, Polamalu, Smith, Hampton, and others to injuries though?
Plus they had 2 losses I beleive at home last year, both to Jax. Houston doesn't play well on the road.
I think you are being a little skeptical as I think this can turn out much like last years where they blew out the Browns who turned out pretty decent to end the year.
Chiefs @ Patriots
Anyone who was here last year probably remembers that I was the ultimate Patriots bandwagon fan and bet them every week until they lost ATS vs Eagles. Now I can't understand why this spread is so low. We have the Pats at home giving just 16 to the Chiefs? If this game happened last year they would be giving 28. The Patriots are going to once again plow through these weak AFC defenses with more Brady to Moss.
Oh and Bradys injury...your kidding right? The guy has been listed probable because of an elbow since 2004. He is fine. Welker, Gaffney, Moss, Watson are ready to plow this defense. Normally this secondary would have me worried but not against Brodie Croyle.
Pats 38
Chiefs 7
Play:
Pats -16.5 (2 Units)
Anyone who was here last year probably remembers that I was the ultimate Patriots bandwagon fan and bet them every week until they lost ATS vs Eagles. Now I can't understand why this spread is so low. We have the Pats at home giving just 16 to the Chiefs? If this game happened last year they would be giving 28. The Patriots are going to once again plow through these weak AFC defenses with more Brady to Moss.
Oh and Bradys injury...your kidding right? The guy has been listed probable because of an elbow since 2004. He is fine. Welker, Gaffney, Moss, Watson are ready to plow this defense. Normally this secondary would have me worried but not against Brodie Croyle.
Pats 38
Chiefs 7
Play:
Pats -16.5 (2 Units)
Season Props
Darren McFadden to win Offensive Rookie of the Year +300 (1 Unit)
Atlanta Falcons Under 4.5 Wins -120 (2 Units)
Atlanta Falcons Under 5 Wins -135 (5 Units)
Patriots Over 12.5 Wins -125 (4 Units)
Bengals Under 7.5 Wins -145 (3 Units)
Week 1
Thursday
(-120) Giants -3 (2 Units)
Sunday
(-120) Steelers -6 (4 Units)
Patriots -16.5 (2 Units)
Darren McFadden to win Offensive Rookie of the Year +300 (1 Unit)
Atlanta Falcons Under 4.5 Wins -120 (2 Units)
Atlanta Falcons Under 5 Wins -135 (5 Units)
Patriots Over 12.5 Wins -125 (4 Units)
Bengals Under 7.5 Wins -145 (3 Units)
Week 1
Thursday
(-120) Giants -3 (2 Units)
Sunday
(-120) Steelers -6 (4 Units)
Patriots -16.5 (2 Units)
Cowboys @ Browns
This game is going to be a good one. Cowboys are coming into Da Pound to face a good Browns team which I am very high on this year. Got a lot of insight on the Cowboys since to the greatest show ever, also known as Hard Knocks. This game is so interesting because I don't see many people being on the Browns in this one yet deep down inside I truly believe they will find a way to win this game and make a statement.
The Browns play at a whole new level at home and are coming into the season with a high level of confidence for the first time in a long time. The Browns have a bunch of weapons on offense that could potentially expose an overrated Cowboys secondary. They have guys like Jamal Lewis, Derek Anderson, Braylon Edwards, Donte Stallworth, Joe Jerivicius, and Kellen Winslow. This offense can and will hurt some people. However it does benefit the Cowboys to have Pacman Jones lining up in practice against Terrell Owens everyday because he is a much similar reciever to Braylon Edwards. The Cowboys are very open to getting beat at the deep ball and Edwards and Stallworth can all kill on the deep ball not to mention Winslow should abuse Roy Williams much like Jeremy Shockey and any other tight end does that lines up against him.
On defense the Browns worked on shoring up their run defense with Shaun Rogers and Corey Williams now at defensive tackle. That will be the key to this game. If the Browns can slow Marion Barber and Felix Jones and not allow the Cowboys to control the pace of the game and just drop 7 guys into coverage I think they have a good chance to win this game against a weak recieving core. I mean they lost Glenn and Crayton isn't what we thought he was and Miles Austin is now hurt. Sam Hurd needs to step up and I do think he will this year and be starting across from Owens towards the end of the season.
It's definitley going to be a hostile enviorment and in this shootout I see the Browns getting it done by a hair. Getting the points is great value.
Browns 34
Cowboys 30
Making a play but waiting until the Weekend because I see it puffing up to maybe 5.5 which I would then buy up to 6.
This game is going to be a good one. Cowboys are coming into Da Pound to face a good Browns team which I am very high on this year. Got a lot of insight on the Cowboys since to the greatest show ever, also known as Hard Knocks. This game is so interesting because I don't see many people being on the Browns in this one yet deep down inside I truly believe they will find a way to win this game and make a statement.
The Browns play at a whole new level at home and are coming into the season with a high level of confidence for the first time in a long time. The Browns have a bunch of weapons on offense that could potentially expose an overrated Cowboys secondary. They have guys like Jamal Lewis, Derek Anderson, Braylon Edwards, Donte Stallworth, Joe Jerivicius, and Kellen Winslow. This offense can and will hurt some people. However it does benefit the Cowboys to have Pacman Jones lining up in practice against Terrell Owens everyday because he is a much similar reciever to Braylon Edwards. The Cowboys are very open to getting beat at the deep ball and Edwards and Stallworth can all kill on the deep ball not to mention Winslow should abuse Roy Williams much like Jeremy Shockey and any other tight end does that lines up against him.
On defense the Browns worked on shoring up their run defense with Shaun Rogers and Corey Williams now at defensive tackle. That will be the key to this game. If the Browns can slow Marion Barber and Felix Jones and not allow the Cowboys to control the pace of the game and just drop 7 guys into coverage I think they have a good chance to win this game against a weak recieving core. I mean they lost Glenn and Crayton isn't what we thought he was and Miles Austin is now hurt. Sam Hurd needs to step up and I do think he will this year and be starting across from Owens towards the end of the season.
It's definitley going to be a hostile enviorment and in this shootout I see the Browns getting it done by a hair. Getting the points is great value.
Browns 34
Cowboys 30
Making a play but waiting until the Weekend because I see it puffing up to maybe 5.5 which I would then buy up to 6.
I am not a fan of taking road teams but when it looks like a win it is dumb to pass up. I'm not really buying into the Lions but the Falcons I think are probably the worst team in the NFL. The Lions -3 is a solid bet IMO.
However, the hype machine that is Brett Favre has the Phins as a home dog by 3 points. I think this game is going to be close and when that happens it makes sense to take the home team getting points. This is a stay-away game IMO. I am going to say wait and see on Favre and the Jets as it didn't appear that he is fully comfortable with the off-season in the limited pre-season action he got. I wouldn't bet the Jets personally but I wouldn't be comfortable with my money on the Phins.
Yea I can't picture an 0-1 Cowboy start but I can't really picture them covering either. I mean I am just so high on the Browns at home this year maybe I am overhyping though. We will see. But if I can get Browns +6 how can you pass it up?
You are acting crazy sir about Pitt. I mean I am also high on the Texans this year but no win for them in Heinz. Let me show you something Jet....
Pitt @ Home:
26-3 W over Bills
37-16 W over 49ers
21-0 W over Seahawks
38-7 W over Ravens
31-28 W over Browns
3-0 W over Dolphins (Mud game)
24-10 W over Bengals
22-29 L to Jags
29-31 L to Jags
Texans on Road:
34-21 W @ Panthers
16-26 L @ Falcons
17-37 L @ Jags
10-35 L @ Chargers
24-17 W @ Raiders
17-27 L @ Browns
20-28 L @ Titans
15-38 L @ Colts
Hmmm...... They covered 7 points in none of their road losses last year.
I agree on the Lions. I am probably be going to make a small play on Lions by Sunday.
Your stuff is great - and I have been wrong before - but how can you not like the fins - at least a little bit?
Here's what I'm thinking - feel free to laugh out loud if it's ridiculous - and I don't mean to infringe upon your page...
The Jets lost 12 games last season, but 7 were by a touchdown or less. They lost absolutely nobody important (maybe Chad's leadership, one could argue - but not very man people would argue that - right). They added a solid quarterback that can stretch the field. I'm not ready to give Favre an MVP or even call him a Top 8 quarterback in the league at this point in his career - but you can't argue, he is a solid leader with a great arm that can really open up a field. But he's not the kicker. The Jets solid young offensive line corps is a year older. That's a huge help. They also won't have defenses forgetting about the deep pass - that should help them. Oh, and they picked up this guy named Alan Faneca, one of the best guards in the NFL. You have to admit, when All-Pro offensive linemen replace career back-ups, the entire offensive unit gets that much better. The Jets will still struggle defensively, but I'm not sure if that's going to be a huge problem against the fins.
Anyway, this is what I think about Miami: They lost 15 games last year and didn't only fail to get much better in the off-season - they got worse. I like Pennington more than anything they had last season at the position - but it's not like he's Brett Favre or even a Top 20 signal caller. They lost their best tackler (Thomas) and their best player (Taylor). Jerry Porter has been a bust and he's hurt going into this game. Ronnie Brown is a very good back, but everyone knows he's not 100% and won't even start. I'm all for Ricky coming back and playing well at his age, but is that a guy you want to put your money on to carry the team? The Dolphins have some nice young players, but their secondary is really shaky and their run defense isn't much better.
That's why I think the Jets are a nice bet, but I do understand their are a lot of people seeing value in that bet, and I may be missing something - but even on the road I like the Jets to win by 7-10 points.
Don't underestimate the changing of the guard.... (corny joke i know)
hno:
Here's what I'm thinking - feel free to laugh out loud if it's ridiculous - and I don't mean to infringe upon your page...
The Jets lost 12 games last season, but 7 were by a touchdown or less. They lost absolutely nobody important (maybe Chad's leadership, one could argue - but not very man people would argue that - right). They added a solid quarterback that can stretch the field. I'm not ready to give Favre an MVP or even call him a Top 8 quarterback in the league at this point in his career - but you can't argue, he is a solid leader with a great arm that can really open up a field. But he's not the kicker. The Jets solid young offensive line corps is a year older. That's a huge help. They also won't have defenses forgetting about the deep pass - that should help them. Oh, and they picked up this guy named Alan Faneca, one of the best guards in the NFL. You have to admit, when All-Pro offensive linemen replace career back-ups, the entire offensive unit gets that much better. The Jets will still struggle defensively, but I'm not sure if that's going to be a huge problem against the fins.
Anyway, this is what I think about Miami: They lost 15 games last year and didn't only fail to get much better in the off-season - they got worse. I like Pennington more than anything they had last season at the position - but it's not like he's Brett Favre or even a Top 20 signal caller. They lost their best tackler (Thomas) and their best player (Taylor). Jerry Porter has been a bust and he's hurt going into this game. Ronnie Brown is a very good back, but everyone knows he's not 100% and won't even start. I'm all for Ricky coming back and playing well at his age, but is that a guy you want to put your money on to carry the team? The Dolphins have some nice young players, but their secondary is really shaky and their run defense isn't much better.
That's why I think the Jets are a nice bet, but I do understand their are a lot of people seeing value in that bet, and I may be missing something - but even on the road I like the Jets to win by 7-10 points.
Don't underestimate the changing of the guard.... (corny joke i know)
hno:
