What's more important when handicapping an NFL game?

[DocHolliday]

Gomer sure knows how to clutter a thread doesn't he? Nothing but back and forth discussion in here except for his 11 posts.

M108k is all that can be said. He’s not getting the attention he wants this is the result. And the mods have deleted 5 other posts by him screaming for attention. Mods should step in and handle this situation again hopefully

and he thinks the problem is us??

again he’s 95 percent of the problem. This thread alone proves it.Remove him. And watch how the forum clutter will leave with him

 

[G-Man!]

Gomer sure knows how to clutter a thread doesn't he? Nothing but back and forth discussion in here except for his 11 posts.

LOL..You never answered the turnover question! Thats why this thread is where its at. You dont answer to the debate. Youre that serious of a mental issue.
Tell the forum WHY you went into MistaFlava's Sunday thread and told him he used the word "think": three times? You are mentally sick. Thats why these threads take the direction they always do with you and doc along with Cheerleader standing by in his skirt, L2Ka.

4 other posted say turnovers cant be capped yet you guys didn't disagree with them? LOL

Im not right about everything. Im just right about what I say to you guys. All you guys do is bash.

Argue with the others who said the same thing I did in here.

 

[DocHolliday]

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you can cap qb int's by looking at INT PROP ODDS​

PURDY O/U 0.5
O + 190
U - 245

JONES

OVER 0.5 - 115
UNDER 0.5 - 119

​

Yardage​

It’s not only about recent games and the points scored when you’re looking at a team’s most recent performance. Yardage is a very good indicator too. There are a good number of yardage stats you can look at to determine point scoring chances, but the biggest to consider are offensive yards per carry, offensive yards per attempt, and offensive starting positions. Of course, when you’re putting money down on football games online, don’t forget to consider the defense either.

Defensive Points Allowed Per 100 Yards​

The ability for an NFL team to defend is absolutely just as important as it is for them to attack. The most important statistic that you’ll want to look at for the defensive contribution of each team on your betting slip is their defensive points allowed per 100 yards. Calculating this is quite easy. Take the total number of yards a defensive team has allowed their opponents, divide it by 100, and take that result and divide it by the number of points their opponents have scored against them. You’re looking for a consistent result of below 6.0, but between 6.0 and 7.0 is normal.

The last few sentences about the defense is interesting. Again it’s not the way I can the games but I appreciate you posting it. May dig into that a little deeper when I have some time

 

[LuckysBoy]

I always look at referee assignments in NFL games to see how certain refs may effect a game.Any of you guys check ref assignments??It shouldn t be overlooked imo, some things in games that are called or are not called, is not as random as one would like. sharpfootballanalysis.com/betting/nfl-refereeassignments It definitely influences me to pass on a game or if its a ref crew that might work to my favor, be a little more confident in the game.Getting the best of a number and having outs is extremely important. Every weekend you can look at a game or two where if you had a good # you can turn a push into a win or a loss into a push.Last weekend ATL. game should of been winner for most if got a decent number.Rams game most should of pushed or had a win with Mcvay giving his kicker a little extra work. The weekend before the side and total came into play on the New England game.Lines are sharp and you create value for yourself getting the best of a number.So many of these games come down to the last 3 or 4 minutes before who is going to cover is determined.

 

[Loves2kickass]

Similar but more interesting debate would be to start a new thread about how people do actually cap. Most people don't really like to talk about it or the reasons they like a specific game. I think specific situational betting and watching the teams play is most of capping. But thats my opinion

I formulate my own point spread for each matchup and I use the sides with the largest differential within those spreads. Contest results is 5-0 in week one and 4-1 in week two for a total of 9/10 points. My single game largest wager in week one and week two both won. I didn't really answer your question besides to say that's my handicapping strategy.

 

[BigLouReturns]

I formulate my own point spread for each matchup and I use the sides with the largest differential within those spreads. Contest results is 5-0 in week one and 4-1 in week two for a total of 9/10 points. My single game largest wager in week one and week two both won. I didn't really answer your question besides to say that's my handicapping strategy.

I can honestly say I've never formulated my own spread when capping an NFL game.

 

[Biz]

Oops

No idea where you got these numbers, but they aren't close to being accurate

Team that committed zero TOs vs a team that had 3+

 

[MR.HARRYtheHAT]

Press win on point spreads is worth +3 game win and your original investment[ Nickel bets are always pressed[ If you don't press Nickel bets [ $500] or even dollar bets [$100} you don't win on short end of money management[ Late Bob Martin[ My Mentor teached me this theory and other management money skills. This is not really a completed system so you have study the concept
I use press money line bets when I am laying money to plus money line bet[ If I like the action in following week Monday & Thursday night games included. If you don't press laying money[-] line bets to plus[+] money line bets the lay will kill you if you lose to many bets on the lay. You are actually hedging money line against the point spread. Betting point spread with money line on same game is must!!! Just One or two money lines a week with your point spread bet. Keep one money line bet you won as hold card for following week. My betting style press one time on 2nd win and will go back to a Original money line bet after the press Win Or Lose... Use the win on money line you bet as your hold card, use the money on following week bet all back called a press on the money line choose. Remember when you press you are betting minus -money line that you won to plus + money line on a team, or plus + money line that you won to a chalk bet. ___________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________________________________________________________ Here is example for you let's say you bet 4 games and one of your bets is a money line bet[ you have to bet at least one money line week that choose[ Monday & Thursday night games included] with your four games that you bet. let's say you won Falcons on chalk bet money line you won as minus $- 140. [ a plus+ to plus+ also can be used if you won a plus +bet on your original bet use started with] Your next bet will be on following week on money line bet team has to be plus+ money line example 49ers + $ 130 with a press[ $100 that you won with $ 40 lay $240 you bet all it back ... $100 that you won with original bet on a plus+ game on a game the following week which is 49ers + $130. You win the press well you just turned $240 into 2 times bet you won on a win +$130 bet. Well if you do the math you can see how much money you won on a press.. You can also press point spread to money lines & Point spreads to point spreads [ Bob Martin strategy] You can't win? if you don,t press once. I believe my record does speak for itself as the single strongest winning formula I use in my NFL game prediction,with the same assumption of each about its probability to win. Remember,my method is not risking adverser [risk is an uncertain event or condition that, if it occurs], and considerable risk is assumed when you choose my method of predictions & Bet. As with any gambling, or investing, there is always risk whether it’s systemic or otherwise.

 

[allthethings]

First-time poster, bet a lot of football and football.

It's my opinion that all of the numbers discussed here are kind of beside the point, because the odds already reflect every aspect of the game in question. The person who set the line, and the market that has moved the line since, has done so to reflect reputation, the market's expectation, and each of the fundamentals named here, from yards per pass and offensive efficiency, from turnovers to running attack to running defense. That one number can serve as a proxy for all that other stuff.

*If* you think yards per pass is the most important thing, you can give extra weight to it when you cap a game, but do so in the knowledge that the ultimate result of the game is a coin flip. There are just too many variables involved when you've got 53 players on each side, a dozen coaches on each side, and seven refs on the field and more in the booth.

Since odds' (and point spreads') fundamental purpose is to split the market down the middle, thus allowing the bookmaker to win no matter what happens in the game (and creating essentially a coin-flip situation), the thing you can do to better your chances of guessing right is to take plus-money wherever possible against any 50-50 line.

This is far easier to do in world football, in a three-way market (home win, draw, away win). If you know that particular teams or particular leagues show an extreme tendency toward underdog wins or underdog draws, you can tailor your strategy accordingly.

In the NFL it is best to fade the public, because the public is stupid. The public doesn't understand recency bias, for example. Regression to the mean is real.

 

[XENO]

Being on the right side of which vegas needs in loong run -they have won 37-39 super bowls something like that -been doing this over 40 years and bookies drive cadilacs

 

[BigLouReturns]

Quick note before I leave on a short vacation. The division with the best T/O ratio after the first two weeks is the NFC East. They are +8 as a division and have a combined record of 7-1. The division with the worst T/O ratio thus far is the NFC North. They stand at (10) as a division and have a combined record of 2-6. See ya next week.

BL

 

[Serbone]

Meaningless stats need to be ignored.

They are often cited on this board, used by those that do not understand the difference between significant stats and irrelevant ones.

 

[LuckysBoy]

TOs stats are not to be ignored. NFC East without checking, probably had best ATS record of any division ly. Better defenses are going to force more TOs. Better teams are going to take care of the ball better.Teams that win the TO battle will cover a higher % of games. Dallas has led the NFL in takeaways the past 2 years.Some who think TOs are completely random and Dallas will regress to the mean, playing against Dallas every week should be your strategy as they are due for regression. Bad teams commit TOs, good teams will force more TOs.Is there any coincidence with Philly,Dallas, and washington they have some of the better D fronts in the NFL. Higher QB pressure rates typically will force more TOs It won t be a surprise at the end of year if the NFC east has a good spread record unless the linemaker starts overadjusting their numbers. Setting lines on NFL games Thats my starting point having lines I have set on each game in advance of what the linemaker is offering the market.The players advantage in Betting to overcome the -110.We get to pass on as many games as we want, when we do PLAY, get a good #. GL to everyone except the Bookie.

 

[cigar]

 

[G-Man!]

Meaningless stats need to be ignored.

They are often cited on this board, used by those that do not understand the difference between significant stats and irrelevant ones.

When you make statements like that you need to explain what stats matter and what dont.
Back it up - or dont say it.