What's more important when handicapping an NFL game?

[BigLouReturns]

Posted this about two hours before kickoff of last night's game.

"Don't get hung up on what a team did last week "thinking" they will play the same type of game this week. I see several writeups saying the Browns will easily win this because their run game and defense will essentially play like they did last week when they beat Cincy 24-3. There is no question they appear to be a solid team but what if things don't go their way tonight? If Pittsburgh jumps out to an early lead and the Browns have to abandon the running game, is Watson ready to lead the team with the passing game? There are so many variables angles you have to look at so just don't assume every team will play like they did last week.

 

[BigLouReturns]

I;ll give you the floor Louie.

How magnanimous of him, giving ME the floor in my own thread. Sorry Gomer, you don't get to post a rude and hateful response in my thread, which the mods deleted, and then expect me to believe you are going to participate in a civil discussion.

 

[DocHolliday]

Lol. Good ol m108k. Guess he thinks people buy the fact he’s a winning poster or produced fake news letters back in the day. As stated before 95% of this boards problems are produced by him. He thinks because he posts picks he is better than people that actually give our quality info and angles.

keep on keeping on. Lou. Some good content in this thread if people choose to sift thru the Bs started by him

 

[BoutMyMoney]

I'll take the floor.

You can't cap turnovers.

 

[ERockMoney]

I like to look at yards per point, offensively and defensively, as a solid metric that can help account for those situations that are difficult to account for, turnovers, special teams, penalties, etc.

I find it more valuable to not only look at a team and their opponents offensive and defensive YPP, but the offensive a defensive YPP of the previous opponents they accumulated those figures against. A team with solid numbers may look great, but if it’s been done against a disproportionate amount of struggling opponents, those figures are likely inflated or vice versa if the opposition was disproportionately excellent.

Any statistic is fairly unreliable when viewed in a silo, but if you dig a little deeper it can become more valuable. Still there’s no one end all be all methodology, but this is a solid one when coupled with whatever strategies one has developed and fine tuned over the years.

Typically, you need several weeks of this type data for it to become useful as there is simply too much variance this early in the season.

 

[Loves2kickass]

YPP (yards per point) is at least a good predictor if you’re looking at “one” stat to predict a winning percentage. In a indirect way it incorporates turnovers.

 

[Biz]

I'll take the floor.

You can't cap turnovers.

I'll second this.....and won't make any further comments

 

[G-Man!]

I'll take the floor.

You can't cap turnovers.

Thats why I said this thread is stupid.
He only started it for attention and argument. Like I posted above...Tell me how many points will be given up in the next game?

 

[LuckysBoy]

Love 2KA, Agree what you are saying on indirect way to incorporate TOs. Efficient teams turn the ball over less and have a higher points per yard than teams that don t protect the ball as well.I believe there are indirect ways also to predict which teams may lose the TO battle in certain games.

 

[G-Man!]

Yards gained in the game isn’t the same as it use to be. Now teams are playing laid back defense and trying to force field goals

you can for sure cap turnovers though. Some teams and qb are more prone to it than others.

Bullshit. You are also stupid and are saying this to support Louie the Lou-ser and you hate being wrong dude.
Tell us all here how many points you are going to get or give up on the next game to cover the spread on turnovers?

WELL??? Were waiting.


It will be another no answer like louie.

can’t stand when someone loses a game and says we should have won if it weren’t for a turnover or return or whatever it is.

case in point the following teams won the yardage but lost the game

lions
Titans
Rams
Denver
Cleveland

happens weekly. 5 teams in week one did the same

Yards has Noting to do with scores offf turnovers...WOW! LOL

 

[G-Man!]

Personally red zone efficiency matters to me. And got to figure in the coach with that as well. Some coaches will always take the 3. Others are more aggressive.

Think I saw Detroit go for it in a tie game on 4 and 6 from inside the 20. Didn’t care for the 3 at all.

That’s another way the game has changed and have to “cap” With it

So if a team is 0-2 but 100% in the rd zone and got here one time in 2 games. Thats a way to "Cap" ? LOL.
Tell us all how that can be calculated into the spread? This ought to be amusing..

 

[AcesandFaces]

Yards gained & allowed or turnovers?

Yards gained & allowed or turnovers?

Yards gained and allowed, and it’s not even close.

 

[DocHolliday]

So if a team is 0-2 but 100% in the rd zone and got here one time in 2 games. Thats a way to "Cap" ? LOL.
Tell us all how that can be calculated into the spread? This ought to be amusing..

Very extreme way of looking at it. Sure id rather have a team that’s 40 percent but been there 100 times rather than someone 1 for 1. Duh. Obviously goes deeper than that, but congratulations on passing kindergarten math.

yards per game matters less and less than it use to. Again. Case in point. Last 2 weeks 12 teams have lost the yardage battle but won the game. Yet some think it’s the holy grail

being able to predict how many points off turnovers isn’t the point. It’s being able to cap into a game how likely or unlikely a team may turn the ball over in a game. Which again to me, cna be done. Much like being able to cap in if a teams d line will over power another teams o line.

however it’s clear by your tone. You are the one looking for an argument. Everyone else here is speaking respectfully and enjoying the discussion. Could be why your M108k. And why you haven’t won in an nfl season in 3 years? Should be open to more ideas and quit acting like you know it all. Because your track record proves you don’t

 

[G-Man!]

Very extreme way of looking at it. Sure id rather have a team that’s 40 percent but been there 100 times rather than someone 1 for 1. Duh. Obviously goes deeper than that, but congratulations on passing kindergarten math.

yards per game matters less and less than it use to. Again. Case in point. Last 2 weeks 12 teams have lost the yardage battle but won the game. Yet some think it’s the holy grail

being able to predict how many points off turnovers isn’t the point.

Again,,,NO ANSER.
Why it IS the point! How many points are you getting o giving from turnovers in the next game ATS?>

It’s being able to cap into a game how likely or unlikely a team may turn the ball over in a game. Which again to me, cna be done. Much like being able to cap in if a teams d line will over power another teams o line.

\

The line doesnt determine turnovers...LOL
Tell us how it does???
Show us the points it creates?

 

[DocHolliday]

No answer?

since you like extremes here’s one for you:

if prime tom Brady and the pats were on one side. I’ll gladly cap them into the winning the turnover battle

 

[G-Man!]

No answer?

since you like extremes here’s one for you:

if prime tom Brady and the pats were on one side. I’ll gladly cap them into the winning the turnover battle

You didnt answer the question mr deviate
Show us the points in the spread before the game is played/?
How many are you getting or giving? C'Mon man answer the question? Give me a guaranteed number in the next game!

 

[DocHolliday]

No this is the problem with you.. you want exact answers to things that aren’t exact.

you want to say this team will get 3 turnovers and score 14 points off those.

that isn’t what anyone is saying.

I can say I don’t think New England will turn the ball over but you know I can see Detroit throwing 2 picks. That may lead to good field position or directly to points.

 

[DocHolliday]

A guaranteed number?

that’s funny. Your the only one that gives out guarantees and those haven’t gone well for you

 

[DocHolliday]

But I’m done discussing it. You are the one that can’t have a normal discussion. It’s been shown in this thread multiple times

you cap your way, I’ll do it mine. Go fire back up that fake 900 number!!!

before anyone follows your way though, I suggest they look at your track record. If anyone needs it pm or just dig back a thru a few posts

 

[G-Man!]

You can use that same arguement for yards.

just because some team gets 400 this week doesn’t mean they will next.

LOL! No you cant!

Just because they only had 200 yards this week doest mean they will next week!..\
It also doest mean they will...LOL

OHH MYYY what are you saying? LOL