What's more important when handicapping an NFL game?

[G-Man!]

But I’m done discussing it. You are the one that can’t have a normal discussion. It’s been shown in this thread multiple times

You cant and never have answered the question. Just like louie! Thats Why YOURE DONE!
maybe you and louie are one and the same. You both post in each other threads to start arguments

you cap your way, I’ll do it mine. Go fire back up that fake 900 number!!!

Your delusional.boy!
You never capped a game here yet! You cant post plays. You make sure to just be a jerk .

What matters is now right?
You and pal louie said it over and over.

I have so many winning years you have NONE!

Post your college plays. Its still embarrassing you for fading 2 straight years in Bowls when Ive gone 65% and kicked your fading ass.
Every time you bring up the past you forgot to tell everyone here that you have been crushed fading me. thats WHY you dont post games.
You dont even gamble because you went bankrupt all your life..

Now because You read my conversation with drKevin in the Newsletters page.
Youre jealous about that: LOL
Blow up the pic there and read the results that were in print which were documented through TIME Warner/HBO. dude.



LOL

 

[DocHolliday]

I’ve answered the question many times. If your not smart enough to understand it or don’t like the answer isn’t my fault

Haven’t seen any winning years posted here. Matter of fact just the opposite.

let’s not clutter the thread saying the same ol BS. If you want too we can but my facts about your results don’t lie

 

[itchyback]

Fyi

 

[itchyback]

Oops

 

[nsight]

While we can't predict turnovers we can game plan the following week based on them.

 

[BigLouReturns]

"He thinks because he posts picks he is better than people that actually give our quality info and angles."

It's the old participation trophy syndrome.

 

[BigLouReturns]

Yards gained and allowed, and it’s not even close.

Can you elaborate?

 

[DocHolliday]

We know m108k.
You’re the best. You’re the best capper in town. You’re the only one that knows anything about capping. We are all conditioned gamblers and you the almighty one are the one that actually knows everything about gambling and how this works.

please use big fonts and demean all us other minions that are not even worthy of being in your presence

Again 95% of what’s wrong on here is people like you. 3 pages worth of worthy respectful discussion then there is…you and your posts.

again I say. The answer to the question you’ve asked over and over has been answered. Jsut becuase you don’t like the answer doesn’t mean it hasn’t been answered. So be adult, which is hard for you considering you pitch a fit on these forums weekly… and accept the answer for what it is, even if you don’t like or agree with the answer….

geez, For someone which such an awful track record in terms of winning and losing. I’d think you might try to be more open to things being discussed……. But then again I’m just a minion here that should be kissing your feet and praising the fact that you are even in our presence

 

[BigLouReturns]

I put G-man on ignore a few months ago which means I cannot see anything he posts when I'm logged in. It also means I am unable to post anything in any thread he starts. Sure would be nice if he allowed me the same courtesy, since he has openly complained about thread clutter to the mods.

 

[BigLouReturns]

"maybe you and louie are one and the same."

Either show some proof or shut your fucking piehole.

 

[G-Man!]

Tell us how many points are in the spread or what you will be getting or giving in the next game from turnovers?
Just because someone wrote that assumption does NOT mean it can be calculated into an outcome!

Writing that is entirely inconsistent. Its an assumption but not a fact for the next game or the next play .
PUT a value on it in points? Thats where an assumption falls short of reality.
If any of what this idiot said in the first post with turnovers could be calculated in advance of the next game then you could account for it in the score or the spread. YOU CANT!


Whats with all the answers? Especially these two morons who constantly make up shit here.
Lou and Doc are both here for attention.

IT cant be done. THATS WHY they wont answer their own question.
None of the opinions here can SHOW a Number on what its going to produce in the next game OR if its been factored into the spread? SHOW US!
You guys all argue because you want drama and attention.
If there is no consistent number on it then its not a fact in the outcome BEFORE the game is played!.

Go ahead Lou or Doc.

Find any game you want and tell us who youre betting on and how many turnovers you are going to have by both teams and which team is going to score for your bet --- and NOT against it!?

 

[itchyback]

Yards gained and allowed, and it’s not even close.

Right

 

[Loves2kickass]

As I briefly stated prior, YPP indirectly factors in turnovers in games previously completed. Yards Per Point tends to regress to the mean because random events like turnovers affect its value. For an extreme example, suppose an offense gets the ball on the opponent's 2-yard line after a turnover. If the offense scores a touchdown, they earn a Yards Per Point of less than 1, an amazing value for an efficient offense. However, the turnover played a huge role in this score, and turnovers are as predictable as flips of a coin. Although its impossible to predict turnovers in upcomming games, YPP is a good metric to use for reasons stated above. As a previous member stated turnovers, on average, account to about 4pts per turnover if you're using YPP in your handicapping.

 

[DocHolliday]

As I briefly stated prior, YPP indirectly factors in turnovers in games previously completed. Yards Per Point tends to regress to the mean because random events like turnovers affect its value. For an extreme example, suppose an offense gets the ball on the opponent's 2-yard line after a turnover. If the offense scores a touchdown, they earn a Yards Per Point of less than 1, an amazing value for an efficient offense. However, the turnover played a huge role in this score, and turnovers are as predictable as flips of a coin. Although its impossible to predict turnovers in upcomming games, YPP is a good metric to use for reasons stated above. As a previous member stated turnovers, on average, account to about 4pts per turnover if you're using YPP in your handicapping.

Makes a lot of sense. Would think ^ is way better than simply yardage… if one likes to cap using this method

 

[exploited17]

Similar but more interesting debate would be to start a new thread about how people do actually cap. Most people don't really like to talk about it or the reasons they like a specific game. I think specific situational betting and watching the teams play is most of capping. But thats my opinion

 

[DocHolliday]

Similar but more interesting debate would be to start a new thread about how people do actually cap. Most people don't really like to talk about it or the reasons they like a specific game. I think specific situational betting and watching the teams play is most of capping. But thats my opinion

College football I’m lean way more that direction. watch it, get a feel for teams, game plans, strengths, weaknesses,

NFL is a different animal to me, talent level is much more even. Way more to look at. However I was told a few years back, throw the numbers out and simply cap who you think will win the game. Something like 80-85 percent of the time the team that wins, covers the spread. That has helped me out and improved my nfl plays

 

[Loves2kickass]

In my opinion one would need at least 4 games played at minimum to start using that metric/stat. Previous season stats are irrelevant. There's no perfect formula to handicap turnovers in upcomming games while keeping in mind these stats usually regress to the mean.

You can use Yards Per Point to calculate a final score, spread & game total, but that method solely won't provide you with bullet proof results. It could be used as a "part" of handicapping and if I were to use it I'd fade the previous results keeping in mind the 'regression to the mean' factor.

To determine a generic final score this is the formula I used to use

Offensive Yards Gained ÷ Points Scored ÷ (Average Yards Gained Per Game ÷ 100) x YPP

Again, turnovers are impossible to predict but this formula does incorporate turnovers of past results in really the only way slightly possible. Again, regression to the mean has to be considered.

 

[itchyback]

​

you can cap qb int's by looking at INT PROP ODDS​

PURDY O/U 0.5
O + 190
U - 245

JONES

OVER 0.5 - 115
UNDER 0.5 - 119

​

Yardage​

It’s not only about recent games and the points scored when you’re looking at a team’s most recent performance. Yardage is a very good indicator too. There are a good number of yardage stats you can look at to determine point scoring chances, but the biggest to consider are offensive yards per carry, offensive yards per attempt, and offensive starting positions. Of course, when you’re putting money down on football games online, don’t forget to consider the defense either.

Defensive Points Allowed Per 100 Yards​

The ability for an NFL team to defend is absolutely just as important as it is for them to attack. The most important statistic that you’ll want to look at for the defensive contribution of each team on your betting slip is their defensive points allowed per 100 yards. Calculating this is quite easy. Take the total number of yards a defensive team has allowed their opponents, divide it by 100, and take that result and divide it by the number of points their opponents have scored against them. You’re looking for a consistent result of below 6.0, but between 6.0 and 7.0 is normal.

 

[G-Man!]

I’ve answered the question many times. If your not smart enough to understand it or don’t like the answer isn’t my fault

Haven’t seen any winning years posted here. Matter of fact just the opposite.

let’s not clutter the thread saying the same ol BS. If you want too we can but my facts about your results don’t lie

You faded 2 years of college bowl winners by me and lost over 20K
You faded my baseball plays last season and lost 15K
Ive posted 3 winning a baseball seasons the last 4 here in bases and its documented in bases for over 17k. So you keep posting lies and they keep letting you lie.
That tells the forum what the RX is about.
You told the whole forum to fade me and were completely crushed for doing so.
You posted a FAKE 5 thousand dollar bet ticket with no time stamp or date a day after the game was played and that alone should have banned you here.
They removed the posts here that tell the ruth. So you cry to them to take it down...

 

[BigLouReturns]

Gomer sure knows how to clutter a thread doesn't he? Nothing but back and forth discussion in here except for his 11 posts.