what would you think if

[PatsFan1283]

Ok then why does the other guy gain to his lifetime capping ability no matter what happened the first 1/2 of the season?

He doesn't necessarily. He could still do far better or far worse just like he did the first half of the season.

But the bottom line is he still has a 55% chance on average. Thus a +EV bet over the 52% dude.

 

[MantisToboggan]

You kind of have to marvel at the fact that this debate is still raging on.

 

[festeringZit]

Ok then why does the other guy gain to his lifetime capping ability no matter what happened the first 1/2 of the season?

They both will over the long term, it's called EV, expected value. It's possible that neither of them will win a game for the rest of the season, or they both
win all the games. BUT, the expected behavior is for both of them to trend towards their lifetime capping ability %. Over an infinite amount of games,
they both will exactly hit that percentage, and the longer term you look at, the more likely they will trend towards that %.

 

[The Guesser]

You kind of have to marvel at the fact that this debate is still raging on.

Congrats, you ARE the strongest Link with this very accurate statement. .

 

[BleedingPurple]

It's hard to argue this one with you because you're referring to your personal contests, but I would guess that you probably think they are dropping/rising more than they are.

Well it's usually 40 cappers and I was keeping the records. Maybe I am?

 

[BleedingPurple]

They both will over the long term, it's called EV, expected value. It's possible that neither of them will win a game for the rest of the season, or they both
win all the games. BUT, the expected behavior is for both of them to trend towards their lifetime capping ability %. Over an infinite amount of games,
they both will exactly hit that percentage, and the longer term you look at, the more likely they will trend towards that %.

I agree that it is the EXPECTED behavior.

 

[festeringZit]

Aren't his results for this baseball season available in the pick thread here and in the baseball forum? With the prices he bet at? How is he lying about his results?
And aren't your pathetic Butt Buddies Casper and Lying WELCHING Ace on the job 24/7 to correct any innocent grading records he might make, and yell STEAM? Or have they given up since Vit is winning?

Ace already clearly exposed him for lying about his results, with his own posts.

Fact.

 

[BleedingPurple]

Every season is different but I tend to think the earlier in the season the more inefficient the lines are for football. As the games go on and the oddsmakers have more data to draw from then they tend to get more efficient. Why win-totals, futures and other prop bets before the season starts can have a lot of value.

And I don't think market adjustments hit capper A vs capper B differently in a great majority of the situations. But it would be possible.

That's fair but you can see where I am coming from.

Take the Vikes over 9 or 9.5, that's my play..

 

[festeringZit]

I agree that it is the EXPECTED behavior.

Expected (value) behavior is the only pertinent value that we're dealing with. There is no other.

 

[vitterd]

Ace already clearly exposed him for lying about his results, with his own posts.

Fact.

I made a mistake in the year. Acebb keeps omitting winning threads and years. But you are too fucking stupid to realize any of this.

Acebb is 0-6 and quit posting out of embarrassment. That's a FACT

 

[JDeuce]

Lol, you see this is why I usually lose betting football because if the Buc's are at home getting points I would probably take them.
Yes the Panthers are favored giving up at least 10 to 14 points.

Exactly, Carolina is favored because of past performance. All things being equal, the books would not suddenly decide to favor the Bucs.

No worries, man. I'd probably consider the ML too if the odds suggested I should.

 

[The Guesser]

Ace already clearly exposed him for lying about his results, with his own posts.

Fact.

He "exposed" him for lying about his baseball record this season, when every game and the line is posted? How so? I'm not talking about an innocent math error here and there. Please show how Vit is lying about his baseball record this year.

 

[PatsFan1283]

Vikes will probably get killed in the division this year. Rodgers was so frustrated with his performance the last time they played that he cutoff all communication with his family and has just been focusing on football.

 

[festeringZit]

He "exposed" him for lying about his baseball record this season, when every game and the line is posted? How so? I'm not talking about an innocent math error here and there. Please show how Vit is lying about his baseball record this year.

Search Ace's posts for this week. I'm not doing the work for an asshole like you.

 

[vitterd]

He "exposed" him for lying about his baseball record this season, when every game and the line is posted? How so? I'm not talking about an innocent math error here and there. Please show how Vit is lying about his baseball record this year.

He can't because it's not there. Every time Acebb posts my records....he leaves out previous and even current years.

Acebb lied and said blindly fading me was very profitable....a total lie.

 

[MantisToboggan]

Vit,

Any interest in going head to head in the NBA?

 

[festeringZit]

He can't because it's not there. Every time Acebb posts my records....he leaves out previous and even current years.

Acebb lied and said blindly fading me was very profitable....a total lie.

He clearly did, just in the last 2 days - it was so obvious, I was laughing my ass off... and Vittard had no response.

 

[The Guesser]

Search Ace's posts for this week. I'm not doing the work for an asshole like you.

You made the statement, back it up. I'm not obsessed with Vit, and his baseball record, to have to search for shit like that, unlike a troll like you.

 

[vitterd]

He clearly did, just in the last 2 days - it was so obvious, I was laughing my ass off... and Vittard had no response.

What are you taking about? You are over -trolling

 

[vitterd]

Vit,

Any interest in going head to head in the NBA?

Sure. I'm in for that. Start of season and best percentage wins?