West Coast/Pac-10 Week 03

[Conan]

I think one of their problems is lack of depth. If they had been able to rotate in decent subs, this may not have happened.

I'd keep an eye on them for that reason. They may be very improved but I believe that they are worth only about ½ cup of Stanford Kool-Aide at the most. Their front line players rate, but beyond that...???

(The same could be said for Udub this season... good starters but a tendency to fizzle out late in games?)

 

[Conan]

A little love here for Mike Riley. I'd like to see him win at least one NC before he's done. They have a ways to go to get there but they have come a long way from where he started.

Best coach-program fit? Throw Riley in there

September 16, 2009 4:19 PM
Posted by ESPN.com's Ted Miller

Bruce Feldman ranked his 10 best coach-program fits today, and it's an interesting list with two Pac-10 coaches on it.

If I were going to throw in another, it would be Mike Riley at Oregon State.

For one, he grew up in Corvallis and his dad, Bud, was Dee Andros' defensive coordinator. He was a star quarterback at Corvallis High School before playing in the secondary for Bear Bryant at Alabama.

Also, he's made the program into what it is today -- with an assist from Dennis Erickson -- transforming it from a longtime lovable loser into a team that is close to becoming a perennial Top-25 power. No matter that he's never signed a top-25 recruiting class.

The fact that he's also a bit of a prodigal son makes the story even better. He left the Beavers for an ill-fated tenure with the San Diego Chargers, then returned in 2003, and he still seems genuinely grateful he was invited back.

I think the odds are fairly good that Riley, 56, will retire as the Beavers' coach.

 

[Conan]

<table style="border:0px; padding:0px;"><tr><td><font style="font-size:13px; font-family:Verdana; font-weight:bold; font-color:#293546">Oregon State coach Mike Riley on Cincinnati</font></td></tr><tr><td><script type="text/javascript" src="http://tribeca.vidavee.com/advance/trh/embedAsset.js?width=470.0&height=264.0&wmode=transparent&skin=v3AdvInt_oregonLive.swf&dockey=C68D9DD531CAB519A5C722383025396F&"></script></td></tr></table>

Keep in mind that Mike Riley is a low key type of guy and as nice a guy as you will ever find. He always understates the situation with his team. I think he just wants to avoid giving anyone on the team a fat head, but he gives credit where it's due. He was no different before they played USC. You never really know from the way he talks what to expect.

 

[WinOne]

Some disquieting news for Stanford backers... I have no action on them presently but this story most definitely needs some follow up.

(09-15) 20:58 PDT -- The most disquieting part of Stanford's 24-17 loss at Wake Forest was not that the Cardinal didn't score after the intermission. It wasn't that Toby Gerhart had only six carries in the second half or even that the team gave up a long pass play on 3rd-and-long to set up the winning touchdown.

Those were problems, to be sure, but the bigger issue was the defense's failure to pursue aggressively. Wake rushed for 251 yards, and three tailbacks and two receivers accounted for 212 of them, a 6.2 average per carry.

Spoke to a buddy who lives in the Research Triangle of North Carolina and says it has been HUMID as heck. Upper 80s temps with humidity in 90% range. Not sure what it was in No Cal but I cant imagine it being that humid. Add that to 9AM PST kickoff and it could have zapped them in the 2nd half

WinOne!!

 

[WinOne]

i dont think brehaut will have any issues. i have a friend who happens to be a HS coach here in so cal and he ran into norm chow some type of function in the offseason. anyway to make a long story short, norm said that brehaut was "his recruit" and basically raved about his potential. well we've seen "norms recruits/players" before havent we

mcmahon
young
detmer
rivers
palmer
leinart
hell, even robbie bosco got off under norm

the kid will be fine

I will second that. They love this Brehaut kid. If there was not a Barkley you'd probably have heard more about him as a recruit. Kid has a gun for an arm probably a little more pocket presence than you would expect for a freshman. I believe he got some snaps against SDSU.

Im still on UCLA as a solid play

WinOne!!

 

[Conan]

WinOne, don't get me wrong because UCLA was one of my childhood teams, Beban, Aikman etc.

However I still question their depth and their inexperience. I don't know how far Chow can take this offense but if Brehaut is his boy, more power to him. I still think they are a year away because they need experience and more depth, but I do like the way Neuheisel along with his staff have handled the sideline coaching in their games so far. They look like they get what they want pretty often. As I recall, most years they'd thump a team like K St. at home.

 

[DesertDevil]

Asu

Im as big an ASU homer as there is, but I really think there is tons of value in UL Monroe +19.

ASU was in this exact same spot last season with UNLV as big home favs with Georgia on deck and lost outright to the Rebels straight up in OT.

The ASU defense is very good this year. Better than most think. I do think Erickson will have them focused for this one. But the offense is still working out some kinks and I could definitely see a final score of like 27-13 with Monroe backers taking the $$.

 

[GoForIt]

Im as big an ASU homer as there is, but I really think there is tons of value in UL Monroe +19.

ASU was in this exact same spot last season with UNLV as big home favs with Georgia on deck and lost outright to the Rebels straight up in OT.

The ASU defense is very good this year. Better than most think. I do think Erickson will have them focused for this one. But the offense is still working out some kinks and I could definitely see a final score of like 27-13 with Monroe backers taking the $$.

Tell them not to look ahead to Georgia like last year. I have a 7 team moneyline parlay that pays -105 and the first leg hit with the Twins -230. Now I have 6 heavy chalk college football moneylines and ASU is one of them. I need the following teams to win SU outright to complete the parlay.
Michigan, Kansas, South Carolina, LSU, Texas A&M, and Arizona State, all are laying at least 18, all they have to do is win even if its only by one point

 

[Conan]

I can see the Devils being a little distracted by their upcoming big game with UGA. Monroe doesn't strike me as a team they are apt to take very seriously, especially in this situation.

I'm going to do a little reading up on their recent practices and what everyone is talking about this week. I don't really sense enough hunger on the Sun Devil team at this point. I wonder where Sullivan's head is at too this week. I may take a shot at Monroe along with you here. Seriously. It makes sense especially if UL Monroe looks like they can score a couple TD's. I don't think Erickson will take many chances with a lead with a big inter-conference matchup on deck. Definitely backdoor-able too.

 

[GoForIt]

The lookahead could be offset by the fact they are coming off a bye week, at least I'm hoping, Obviously, I don't want a disaster like last year when UNLV beat them SU, I think it was UNLV, although LA Monroe is SunBelt which doesn't pull off too many SU upsets, Middle Tenn last year against Maryland

 

[Conan]

The headline says it all.

WSU defense ranked 118th nationally, out of 120

By GREGG BELL
AP SPORTS WRITER
<!--BEGIN ARTICLE--> SEATTLE -- Washington State gave up nearly 500 yards to supposedly grounded Stanford. Saturday, they allowed Hawaii to soar for over 600 yards as the quarterback threw for more yards than anyone had torched them for in 20 years.
"We had enough mistakes to probably lose by 40 or 50, to be honest," Cougars coach Paul Wulff said.
Hawaii went up 35-0 less than 5 minutes into the second quarter and coasted to a 38-20 win.
It was the final game of the current WSU contract to play an annual game at the Seattle Seahawks' home stadium. Maybe that's a good thing. Western Washingtonians don't want to see any more of what they got Saturday.
The woebegone Cougars play Southern Methodist next weekend in Pullman.
The lone Cougars' highlight until late in the third quarter Saturday was an excited Coug fan winning a contest of rolling tins of "Cougar Gold" cheese across the end zone during a time out.
After two games, Washington State is ranked 118th in total defense, out of the 120 teams in the Football Bowl Subdivision.
Hawaii - a team that had rallied past lower-division Central Arkansas at home 25-20 the week before - might have put up a basketball score on the Cougars (0-2) if not for errors of their own.
The Warriors lost four fumbles, including one by otherwise brilliant quarterback Greg Alexander at the Washington State 1 just steps before he would have made it 42-0 in the first half.
Hawaii settled for a 20-yard field goal in the fourth quarter instead of going for another touchdown from the WSU 3. The Warriors also had a defensive touchdown called back because of a personal foul penalty on a defender who the referee announced had delivered a helmet-to-helmet hit, though replays showed he led with his shoulder to cause a fumble after a catch by Cougars freshman receiver Gino Simone.
Simone sustained a concussion on the play. He was to be reevaluated on Sunday after the team bused back to Pullman.
Alexander was 26 of 36 for a career-high 453 yards. It was the most yards passing against Washington State since 1989, when Arizona State's Paul Justin threw for 537.
Wide receivers Greg Salas and Rodney Bradley combined for 14 catches, 345 yards and all three of Alexander's scoring passes. They continually galloped free across the middle like thoroughbreds. Washington State's defenders were relative plow horses, often five yards or more behind the Warriors.
"The speed of their receivers hurt us, and I thought that was glaring at times," Wulff said.
Then again, the offense wasn't much better, with seven turnovers.
"When you have five turnovers in one half, you're not going to beat anybody at any level," Wulff said.
Inconsistency and ineffectiveness remain at quarterback. Starter Kevin Lopina struggled, yielding to Marshall Lobbestael in the second quarter. Lobbestael went 2-for-6 with an interception and a sack before Wulff reinserted Lopina. He finished 18 for 32 for a career-best 191 yards but with two interceptions and two more sacks.
James Montgomery rushed for a career-high 118 yards, the Cougars' first 100-yard day since Chris Ivory against Washington in the 2007 Apple Cup.
Fixing the offense won't matter if the defense doesn't slow down somebody. Questions remain about whether the Cougars have defenders stout enough to provide a pass rush or anyone fast enough to cover Pac-10 receivers man-to-man, a scheme they stuck with Saturday to the amazement of Salas.
"We expected (the speed), but I really think we just started out slow," Cougars defensive back Chima Nwachukwu said.
For now, SMU has some anxious Ponies waiting for the trip this week to Pullman. A 35-33 win on Saturday against Alabama-Birmingham left the Mustangs 2-0 for the first time since 1996.

 

[gynecologist]

cincy isnt traveling to pitt or usf. they are traveling to hostile corvallis. imo one of the toughest places to play on the west coast. just ask usc. what do we know about ore st? well they suck on the road early in the season ( barely beat unlv) but they take care of business at home. not to mention cincy has a 4 hour plane ride. i really like the beavers in this spot

Do you know Oregon St's home record ATS last thre years?

 

[Conan]

Do you know Oregon St's home record ATS last thre years?

Beavers are 40-19-1 ATS in their last 60 home games.
Beavers are 9-3 ATS in their last 12 games as an underdog of 0.5-3.0
Beavers are 16-5 ATS in their last 21 games overall
Beavers are 5-2 ATS vs. a team with a winning record

try covers.com for that sort of thing

Bearcats are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games in September.
Bearcats are 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
Bearcats are 6-14-1 ATS in their last 21 games as a road favorite
Bearcats are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games as a favorite of 0.5-3.0

 

[DesertDevil]

This might settle the debate as far as Gronkwoski goes. He will NOT play this Saturday at Iowa.

http://www.azcentral.com/sports/ua/articles/2009/09/16/20090916uagronkowski-CR.html

 

[AC2008]

when was the last time cin bearcats went to the west coast?
how many players do they have from the west ?
Oregon state is good, its tough to win on the road even at UNLV

what about the USC line down to -17? too good to be true?

 

[Conan]

when was the last time cin bearcats went to the west coast?
how many players do they have from the west ?
Oregon state is good, its tough to win on the road even at UNLV

what about the USC line down to -17? too good to be true?

I already bet UW+21. If it goes down any further than 17 I'm going to give the middle a shot.

And just for the record, I think there's going to be some substantial improvement in Oregon St.'s defense this week or I wouldn't have bet it. Mark Banker, OSU's DC is a class act. You don't just count him out.

In the past, I've seen their defense do a total 180 after a mediocre performance when they are put to task in the following game. Most recently it happened in the Sun Bowl where they shut out Pitt after playing their worst game of the year vs Oregon. Had I not seen them do this a few times in the past, I wouldn't touch them with an opponent like UC. But they've shown that they can rise to the occasion, especially at Reser. Somehow they have won 27 straight OOC games at home dating back to 1996 in spite of the fact that they've performed poorly in Sept.

Saturday's outcome will have a whole lot to do with how well the Beaver defense plays. Will Banker have them ready or will they wind up back in school? Based on similar situations in the past, I think it's possible they will put on an unexpectedly good performance, because that's what Oregon State does often, but I dunno for sure. Their defense can make all of the difference in this game.

If the Beaver's D has any success chopping down Cincy's O, the Bearcats have hardly a prayer. Cincy's D has a chore on their hands to deal with too, and much tougher defenses than theirs have failed to stop OSU from moving the ball, especially when they play at home. But that was a big "if" statement.

 

[Conan]

And lastly, IF Oregon State strikes first blood or IF they somehow manage to go up by 10-14 points, putting UC into a passing situation, Pike and the Bearcats find themselves playing right in their own element anyway. That's disconcerting to think about. Maybe we are in for a classic shootout? I think that's most people's take on this game. I'm leaving the door open for OSU's defense to make a statement here.... waiting... waiting... not too long I would hope. I think the last time OSU and UC got it on, OSU actually won the stat war but the picks killed them. There were 6 of them thrown by Canfield and Moevao. Cincy also jumped out front from some of that action and never looked back.

 

[Conan]

OK here's the recap.

Utah+4/Oregon*
UW+21/USC*
OSU-1½/UC*
SMU-4½/WSU*
BYU-7/FSU* (see the BYU thread)
UL Monroe+19½/ASU*
AZ/Iowa U42*

That's 7, my limit. Maybe I'll add on but we'll see.
Lean on Cal-. UCLA-. UCLA Under. SJSU+. (screw Harbaugh)

 

[Conan]

OK OWG!!

If you are not willing to do this, then I will. BOL to you this week and may you bleed orange all over your blog for doubting your Beavs. (But granted, the situation for Oregon State is at least ominous. But where is your love for Mark Banker these days? Maybe he needs another month, maybe not. What say you?)

Very sharp thinking here and kudos to you for having a great year so far.

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<table><tbody><tr><td colspan="3" class="storytitle">The Wiseguy: Week 3 </td> </tr> <tr> <td class="primaryimage" valign="top">

</td> <td width="3" nowrap="nowrap">
</td> <td valign="top"> <table bgcolor="#f5f5f5" border="0" cellpadding="4" cellspacing="1" width="60%"> <tbody><tr valign="top"> <td valign="middle" nowrap="nowrap"> <script type="text/javascript">var author = escape("MARC DESANTIS");</script> By MARC DESANTIS
Beaverfootball.com Correspondent
Posted Sep 17, 2009
</td> <td nowrap="nowrap">
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SHOW ME ANOTHER prognosticator who went 7-2 last week and who has a year-to-date record of 16-2. Didn’t think so. I finally have my voice back from the Las Vegas road trip. That joker starting the OSU chant in Section 127, yes that was indeed The Wiseguy. This week, I’m in search of even more danger -- with the most shocking pick I’ve made to date.
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No. 8 California @ Minnesota
Golden Bears vs. Golden Gophers. It’s time for the Big-10 to be embarrassed by the Pac10…again. These Bears won’t be hibernating, they will be eating Gopher.
Pick: California

No. 3 USC @ Washington
Men of Troy will march into Seattle and escape with a win. This could be closer than you’d think -- it’s a prime spot for a USC letdown. Huskies will be playing with their heads cut off and the coffee baron alumni will do that thing they do out on the yachts in the bay.
Pick: USC

Arizona @ Iowa
The Wildcats will be tested in Iowa. It’s time to represent in another Pac-10 vs. Big-10 showdown. UO and USC have taken care of business, but will Stoops? No, he will just lose his voice again yelling out insanely at his players, the officials, hot dog vendors, etc. Someone needs to teach this Cat’ that coaching and yelling are two different things.
Pick: Iowa

SMU @ Washington State
The Cougars will win a game. This is not a typo! SMU is still trying decades later to recover from the most severe penalties ever against a college football program. The NCAA doesn’t seem to care much for slush funds and paying players.
Pick: Wazzu

San Jose State @ Stanford
This really isn’t much of a road game for the SJSU. I’m not buying the hype about Stanford and their improvement. Harbaugh gets flushed down his fancy toilet.
Pick: San Jose State

Louisiana-Monroe @ Arizona State
The Warhawks beat Texas Southern last week 58-0. Well, who cares! It’s a popcorn party for the Sun Devils as they stick a pitchfork into these guys. Memo to dads with young kids: Tell them they can have a popcorn party and they will let you watch college football instead of Dora the Explorer.
Pick: Arizona State

Kansas State @ UCLA
I’m taking the Bruins in this game in a battle of ugly uniforms. Baby powder blue and freaky purple? Give Phil Knight a phone call, maybe he can help. Uh, maybe not, bad idea.
Pick: UCLA

No. 16 Utah @ Oregon
The meltdown has started in Eugene. Granted they did escape with a win over Purdue last week (38-36), and they won’t finish 0-12 like earlier prognosticated. But they will lose to the better team. Utes flock the Ducks.
Pick: Utah

No. 17 Cincinnati @ No. 24 Oregon State
This Cincy squad can put points on the board , I don’t care if it was directional school SE Missouri State that the Bearcats hung 70 points on last week. The Beaver secondary will need to take note. It pains me to say this, but OSU will be outmatched. The Rodgers’ brothers may break their backs trying to carry Oregon State in this one.
Pick: Cincinnati

The Wiseguy can be reached with your comments and hatred for picking the Bearcats this week at beavableeda@beaverfootball.com. Dream it! Believe it! Bleed it!
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[KOOPSTAKNICCA]

Completely agree with your BYU selection. This is the first play I took a strong look at this week. FSU defensive secondary is just plain bad! BOL Conan