West Coast/Pac-10 Week 03

[tread]

Thanks tread, I appreciate your input very much.

Oregon St.'s opponents of note they beat in that streak were Utah and Boise St. Most big schools won't do a home/home with them because the stadium has only like 40,000 seats.

Any idea how well Cincy travels, long trips etc.??

It's really a tough call, they rarely do long road trips. They had a reasonable showing at Oklahoma, only down one TD at halftime, but then wore out (and i'm not sure anyone can blame them). They didn't play all that well at Hawaii I guess, but that was last game of the season with nothing on the line.

As far as their run D goes, again very tough to evaluate because they have all new players. Last year they held WVU to under 100 yards for the whole game (that's White and Devine combined on 42 attempts) McCoy to 82 yards, but then on another occasion Donald Brown ripped them for 150. I know their emphasis is on fast/athletic players over size/strength, with the former ND QB now playing linebacker as an example.

It's a tough call and it could go either way, but I think you will be surprised at the ability of all of UC's recievers, not just Gilyard. They do not run long-developing routes, so while a pass rush certainly does not hurt, your ability to pass defend one-on-one is probably more important than the ability to rush the passer here.

To be honest, one of the other reasons I'm rooting for UC is so that OregSt stays off the national radar and creates some nice lines to take advantage during the Pac 10 season. I enjoy watching the Rodgers play and it should be a very entertaining game.

 

[Conan]

down to a pk

They are still -1 at thegreek. Their iines are usually sharper than many others in that they push action away from the winning side on many occasions. Usually it's a ½ point to 1 point like it is now. So I am listening. I may just buy it back and pray for Beaver redemption. To me that would be winning enough. We'll see. I'm not yet sold on Cincy. It's partly because I smell an opportunity and I promise you the Beavers are not going to quit in this game right up to the last series of downs and they won't wear down. That's another plus they have going for them. But honestly, the one thing above all things that concerns me is their passing defense. All else has been going very well for them. Their passing D does stiffen up a lot in the red zone though, FWIW. And their OL can be brutal in the closing minutes when that last rushing first down can break their opponents' will, not to mention their stash of time outs.... assuming that Oregon St. needs to kill clock.

A couple of other items have crossed my path today. I'll get on them in the next day or 2 as soon as I get more time to look at them.

 

[FairWarning]

I vowed never to lay points to a Brian Kelly team.

 

[Conan]

I vowed never to lay points to a Brian Kelly team.

At the rate things have been going, Kelly's team will be laying the points soon. Maybe it will wind up sided with the world on Cincy? That would be the kind of jinx I would need if I stick with Oregon St.

 

[WinOne]

...and just to put a tag on the end of the total Duck picture, names excluded, they may be replacing a lot of players on their offense, but the nucleus of the team that put OSU in their place in the last Holiday Bowl is still there. .

They lost a lot on the o-line and being a HC is a lot tougher than being an O-Coordinator. I don't like the look of Kelly as a HC. Also he suspended their best back for the year. Why not just suspend him for 3-4 games? Punish the kid but don't punish the team.

Just a thought. Would love to get Ducks thoughts.

WinOne!!

 

[WinOne]

It will either be Richard Brehaut a freshman or Kevin Craft who was picked off something like 30 times last year. Norm Chow's thinking is that Craft couldn't possibly do that again with some protection that he never got last season.... but I dunno about that myself. He spent a lot of time missing his targets but he did get hot on a few occasions. Probably going to see both of them play. I think the Brus are going to do a lot more running this week than before.

Wont matter. Even with backup UCLA will handle Kansas St. I was on UL LAfayette last week. KSU has nothing. The cupboard is pretty bare. I am getting mixed news coming out of their camp. I am not sure everyone is drinking the Bill Snyder Kool-aid. He may not be able to reach is team

WinOne!!

 

[Conan]

They lost a lot on the o-line and being a HC is a lot tougher than being an O-Coordinator. I don't like the look of Kelly as a HC. Also he suspended their best back for the year. Why not just suspend him for 3-4 games? Punish the kid but don't punish the team.

Just a thought. Would love to get Ducks thoughts.

WinOne!!

I've been thinking the same WinOne. Kelly has a big job on his hands. He has a lot more responsibilities now than just running the Duck offense. Maybe that was why I noticed the look of urgency on his face so often when he was on camera. He's no longer Bellotti's asst. The buck now stops with him. He looks like he's getting on-the-job training and after all, he is a newbie.

Agree on issue #2 too. I think a month would have been sufficient to make the point. I wonder if he has had any 2nd thoughts?

Would like to hear Ducks thoughts as well.

 

[Conan]

Deja Vu all over again?

WSU injuries continue to grow, results of the Hawaii game last Saturday:

The Cougars may have lost as many as four starters to injuries during the game, added to the loss of starting defensive end Kevin Kooyman (knee) last week.
Starting safety LeAndre Daniels broke his leg early in the game and will miss at least eight weeks, putting the redshirt freshman’s season in jeopardy.
Wulff also said wide receiver Gino Simone (concussion) and guard Zack Williams (possible high ankle sprain) are doubtful for this week. Senior linebacker Andy Mattingly has a concussion, but it might be mild enough that he’ll be back.

 

[Conan]

Conan I respect you like no other here at RX but I beg you rethink the Cincy play ... PIKE is a manimal ...

:cripwalk:

I just saw this today. I know Canfield had himself a good day and a good year thus far, but I didn't know it was this good.

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Two of the more accurate passers in this young season will be on the Reser Stadium turf Saturday. OSU’s Sean Canfield is first in the nation with a 78.6 (33-42, 3 TD, 0 Int) completion percentage and Cincinnati’s Tony Pike is third at 77.2 (44-57, 6 TD, 1 Int)[/FONT]

 

[ElTaino]

They are still -1 at thegreek. Their iines are usually sharper than many others in that they push action away from the winning side on many occasions. Usually it's a ½ point to 1 point like it is now. So I am listening. I may just buy it back and pray for Beaver redemption. To me that would be winning enough. We'll see. I'm not yet sold on Cincy. It's partly because I smell an opportunity and I promise you the Beavers are not going to quit in this game right up to the last series of downs and they won't wear down. That's another plus they have going for them. But honestly, the one thing above all things that concerns me is their passing defense. All else has been going very well for them. Their passing D does stiffen up a lot in the red zone though, FWIW. And their OL can be brutal in the closing minutes when that last rushing first down can break their opponents' will, not to mention their stash of time outs.... assuming that Oregon St. needs to kill clock.

A couple of other items have crossed my path today. I'll get on them in the next day or 2 as soon as I get more time to look at them.

cincy isnt traveling to pitt or usf. they are traveling to hostile corvallis. imo one of the toughest places to play on the west coast. just ask usc. what do we know about ore st? well they suck on the road early in the season ( barely beat unlv) but they take care of business at home. not to mention cincy has a 4 hour plane ride. i really like the beavers in this spot

 

[Conan]

cincy isnt traveling to pitt or usf. they are traveling to hostile corvallis. imo one of the toughest places to play on the west coast. just ask usc. what do we know about ore st? well they suck on the road early in the season ( barely beat unlv) but they take care of business at home. not to mention cincy has a 4 hour plane ride. i really like the beavers in this spot

I've been watching Canfield for a couple of weeks yet his passing efficiency has escaped me because of Quizz and Quan who own the Beaver offense.

The only negative thing I've seen about him was Hippieki11er's trashing Canfield's game in another thread. I had no comment other than his passes seemed very accurately thrown, but I didn't think it was worth mentioning until I saw that little factoid about him in my last post.

I can't take anything away from Pike, but the Beaver's rush will definitely test him. They are probably the most competitive defense that he will see this year. On the other hand, judging from the comments in this thread, the same might be said about Cincy's passing game and the Beaver's passing D.

I'm not sure that either defense will be ready for their opponent's strength on offense. But traditionally speaking, the good rushing game usually wins. Also just as a footnote, the Beavers rushing defense has not allowed 100 yards yet in this young season.

It's worth repeating this on a new page...

Two of the more accurate passers in this young season will be on the Reser Stadium turf Saturday. OSU’s Sean Canfield is first in the nation with a 78.6 (33-42, 3 TD, 0 Int) completion percentage and Cincinnati’s Tony Pike is third at 77.2 (44-57, 6 TD, 1 Int)

 

[ElTaino]

I've been watching Canfield for a couple of weeks yet his passing efficiency has escaped me because of Quizz and Quan who own the Beaver offense.

The only negative thing I've seen about him was Hippieki11er's trashing Canfield's game in another thread. I had no comment other than his passes seemed very accurately thrown, but I didn't think it was worth mentioning until I saw that little factoid about him in my last post.

I can't take anything away from Pike, but the Beaver's rush will definitely test him. They are probably the most competitive defense that he will see this year. On the other hand, judging from the comments in this thread, the same might be said about Cincy's passing game and the Beaver's passing D.

I'm not sure that either defense will be ready for their opponent's strength on offense. But traditionally speaking, the good rushing game usually wins. Also just as a footnote, the Beavers rushing defense has not allowed 100 yards yet in this young season.

It's worth repeating this on a new page...

Two of the more accurate passers in this young season will be on the Reser Stadium turf Saturday. OSU?s Sean Canfield is first in the nation with a 78.6 (33-42, 3 TD, 0 Int) completion percentage and Cincinnati?s Tony Pike is third at 77.2 (44-57, 6 TD, 1 Int)

here is the stat i find most interesting from last week. canfield had 25 completions for 198 yards. a short passing game works the clock and softens up the LB's. 4th quarter on the road, being on the field for prolonged periods of time has never been an advantage for DL or LB's that im aware of. if ore st has a lead in the 4th think they will be able to shave 10 mins off the clock?

 

[Conan]

here is the stat i find most interesting from last week. canfield had 25 completions for 198 yards. a short passing game works the clock and softens up the LB's. 4th quarter on the road, being on the field for prolonged periods of time has never been an advantage for DL or LB's that im aware of. if ore st has a lead in the 4th think they will be able to shave 10 mins off the clock?

The Rogers brothers keep going and going. I am curious how much UC's DL will have left in the tank in the 4th quarter? If OSU has any kind of lead, that will make it tougher for UC to catch them. Also, no matter what anyone says about Sean Canfield, he showed guts on their last come from behind drive ending with a FG to win with seconds left in the game.

 

[Conan]

It's a little funny when people bring up guys like Eric Berry or Tony Pike. Then I look at the Pac-10 team they are playing in a given week and see a counter part on the other side that at least equals the aforementioned stud statistically. There's no question that Alteraun Verner and Rahim Moore won that battle last weekend over Eric Berry.

With Sean Canfield playing before the home fans, I expect at least a respectable showing on his part vs Pike... especially because at this point in the season he is statistically ahead of Pike in compl. %. The rest of the numbers reflect the strength of the Beaver running game rather than the difference in actual passing production by Canfield. Perhaps making less passing attempts is an advantage. It seems that would be true because the offensive balance that the Beavers bring to the game appears evident.

 

[hippieki11er]

The only negative thing I've seen about him was Hippieki11er's trashing Canfield's game in another thread. I had no comment other than his passes seemed very accurately thrown, but I didn't think it was worth mentioning until I saw that little factoid about him in my last post.

LOL, don't be so sensitive about your beaves - i'm just not sold on canfield and was only commenting in the other thread about his potential of being a pro rather than trashing his college game. do agree that it's osu or nothing in this spot, but pike makes the better pro with the stronger arm, better fundamentals and mechanics.

 

[Conan]

LOL, don't be so sensitive about your beaves - i'm just not sold on canfield and was only commenting in the other thread about his potential of being a pro rather than trashing his college game. do agree that it's osu or nothing in this spot, but pike makes the better pro with the stronger arm, better fundamentals and mechanics.

I think perhaps an NFL scout or 2 has taken notice of his #1 pass completion stat. I have noted that he also looks very poised in the pocket. I thought you'd be honored that you would be remembered, even if it was in disagreement. I nearly ignored your comment about Canfield but since the subject of Canfield came up, I had you made to be flattered if I mentioned your name. Don't be so sensitive.

 

[Delta00]

Conan: I don't play many totals but I'm taking a close look at the Arizona/Iowa under. Arizona certainly does not have an explosive offense and is clearly going to be run based with Grigsby and Matt Scott's average arm and good legs. Add to it that Delshaun Dean is slowed by a hammy. They are also facing a very good Iowa defense. Iowa returns just about every sans their two DTs but it's still a group with great defensive ends, linebackers and a very good secondary.

It's much of the same for Iowa's O vs. Arizona's D. Arizona's D has been quietly pretty good and they really slowed down Central Michigan which has the potential to be explosive. Iowa is without their best OT and that certainly bodes well for Brooks Reed. Stoops is really high on the linebackers and the secondary has some stars. Iowa may have trouble with a questionable running game. There was a ray of light last week when their freshman running back showed some talent but that was against Iowa State. Without a reliable running threat I question how effective Stanzi will be.

This looks like a classic matchup of very good defenses against slower, prodding offenses searching for an identity

 

[Conan]

Conan: I don't play many totals but I'm taking a close look at the Arizona/Iowa under. Arizona certainly does not have an explosive offense and is clearly going to be run based with Grigsby and Matt Scott's average arm and good legs. Add to it that Delshaun Dean is slowed by a hammy. They are also facing a very good Iowa defense. Iowa returns just about every sans their two DTs but it's still a group with great defensive ends, linebackers and a very good secondary.

It's much of the same for Iowa's O vs. Arizona's D. Arizona's D has been quietly pretty good and they really slowed down Central Michigan which has the potential to be explosive. Iowa is without their best OT and that certainly bodes well for Brooks Reed. Stoops is really high on the linebackers and the secondary has some stars. Iowa may have trouble with a questionable running game. There was a ray of light last week when their freshman running back showed some talent but that was against Iowa State. Without a reliable running threat I question how effective Stanzi will be.

This looks like a classic matchup of very good defenses against slower, prodding offenses searching for an identity

I just got in at AZ/Iowa U44* for 1 unit and it dropped 2 points within 5 min. to 42 at bookmaker. Wow. I think there's a good chance that one or both teams will score under 20 points.

 

[bellyputter]

I just got in at AZ/Iowa U44* for 1 unit and it dropped 2 points within 5 min. to 42 at bookmaker. Wow. I think there's a good chance that one or both teams will score under 20 points.

Opened 46.5. Oregon opened 55.5---51

 

[Delta00]

Any opinions in that side Conan? I like Iowa until I saw tehy were without Bryan Bulaga which could be a terror agaisnt Brooks. I don't like Arizona's chances standing up going on the road in an OOC game agasint a top 25 team. I'm curious to see Matt Scott go against a real defense, and Grigsby may not be able to bail them out. This Iowa defense may be too good and the Pac-10 rep may take a hit as Arizona scores about 10 in a losing effort to a pretty damn good Iowa team.