Thanks for breaking it out this way. I think those that follow the numbers from the time that they are released get that they are hit multiple times depending on movement. But, this is a helpful recap to understand the betting throughout the week. The USC number is a great example of why we all need to make time to be ready when opening lines are released. Otherwise, it's like missing a great sale on a flat screen.
Thanks for breaking it out this way. I think those that follow the numbers from the time that they are released get that they are hit multiple times depending on movement. But, this is a helpful recap to understand the betting throughout the week. The USC number is a great example of why we all need to make time to be ready when opening lines are released. Otherwise, it's like missing a great sale on a flat screen.
Sometimes when early bettors go against me and I end up with a better line, I feel compelled to hit it again. I could be a lot better at predicting line movement than I am, but I get plenty of opportunities just the same as lines change during the week. I don't often get burnt because I was too late to get my bet down... maybe twice a year tops. The same goes for betting too soon and getting better value later on.
Sometimes I can't for the life of me understand the direction some lines take. For example USC opened around 6**, then it went to 5½ so I hit it, then it went back to 6 and I was smiling. But then it went to 5 and I just nailed it again. Then it started climbing to 7 which is where it sits now. Sure anyone can say in hindsight that some kind of big Ohio St. money came down early and pushed the line down to 5 before betting America got all over USC and pushed it up to 7, but who can know these things?
**reports say it opened at 4½ but I was there and I never saw that number, not at CRIS (bookmaker) where the lines generally come out around 6PM EST on Sundays.
Addding Fresno St.+8½/Wisc.*
This is the kind of game Pat Hill was born for. Big game on national TV, Big-10 opponent, a chance for his Bulldogs to make an impression... AND 10 Badgers down with the swine flu as of Tuesday and probably more who came down with it this week. I think this flu isn't something that just goes away in a few days. Aside from that, I like Fresno with the points here anyway.
Fresno St.+8½/Wisc.* (new bet)
Oregon St.-6½/UNLV*
UW-20½/Idaho ½* (new bet)
UW-21/Idaho ½*
WSU+2½/Hawaii ½*
WSU+3/Hawaii ½* (new bet)
WSU/Hawaii U50½ ½*
WSU/Hawaii U53* ½* (new bet)
USC -5½/OSU* (GOW)
USC -5/OSU** (GOW)
Now it's all posted up as it really is. I'm not going to count two ½* wagers as 2 wins or 2 losses when everything is done and graded, just one win or 1 loss. If they happen to split, I'll call it a push.
This is the kind of game Pat Hill was born for. Big game on national TV, Big-10 opponent, a chance for his Bulldogs to make an impression... AND 10 Badgers down with the swine flu as of Tuesday and probably more who came down with it this week. I think this flu isn't something that just goes away in a few days. Aside from that, I like Fresno with the points here anyway.
Fresno St.+8½/Wisc.* (new bet)
Oregon St.-6½/UNLV*
UW-20½/Idaho ½* (new bet)
UW-21/Idaho ½*
WSU+2½/Hawaii ½*
WSU+3/Hawaii ½* (new bet)
WSU/Hawaii U50½ ½*
WSU/Hawaii U53* ½* (new bet)
USC -5½/OSU* (GOW)
USC -5/OSU** (GOW)
Now it's all posted up as it really is. I'm not going to count two ½* wagers as 2 wins or 2 losses when everything is done and graded, just one win or 1 loss. If they happen to split, I'll call it a push.
BP.... I was sitting there watching my screen while at bookmaker right around 3:30 (time you mentioned) and 4½ never even flashed for a minute. If it really opened up at 4½ at bookmaker, it couldn't have been there for more than 30 seconds because I refreshed my odds screen 20 times before the USC number came up.
I saw 5½ ONCE and I tried getting my bet in IMMEDIATELY but I missed it. It had already gone to 6. A few minutes later it was back on 5½ and this time I hit it and got my bet down. Blew my mind to see it go back down to 5 a while later and I hit it again. What I mean to say is that I don't see how any premium service could have helped me because I was parked at bookmaker when it opened. Could it have opened up at 4½ someplace else? Maybe CRIS is a couple of minutes ahead of bookmaker?
I'm watching Stanford/WF and Fresneck/Wisky on 2 screens. I am IMPRESSED with Stanford's play and Fresno ain't lookin bad themselves. Interesting that the announcers compared Toby Gerhart to John Riggins.
I lean to the over in the OSU/UNLV game. Depends on how long the Beavers TOP is used on long drives primarily on the ground. Other than that, I think there will be some points. But it's a no-bet for me because the Beaver defense could be a lot tighter this week compared to last week. If not, UNLV moves the ball through the air. If so, that will also slow down their offense in terms of clock.
Damn Toby Gerhart is a beast. He's literally knocking the DD's right out of their uniforms.
That young kid Wiley (5'7") is also a stud WR for the Bulldogs too. Can't cover him if you can't see him (and he's got speed too.)
Nobody opens before CRIS, with the GREEK being a close second(-6 3:51:43). I missed the -4.5. The CRIS(Bookmaker and other aliases for US customers) site runs very SLOW. USC -4.5(3:29:39) -5(3:31:56) -5.5(3:36:31) -6(3:41:06) -5(4:04:36). I layed 5 the second time around. I just saw my first 7.5(offscreen). I'm not trying to argue. Good Luck
I understand BP... not taking it as an argument. Just looking for something that explains why I never got to see it. I know about the CRIS/bookmaker connection. Your explanation of the slow lines in USA makes some sense. That could explain why bookmaker is lagging behind CRIS. I used to play at CRIS but no more for of that anymore for us US folks.
Glad to hear you got 5 too.
BOL
yeah garhart is something else. he has a brither that plays OL for zona st. he is built like one, but has speed. i dont want to compare him to brandon jacobs, but he is that type of back.
as for wylie, there is another catch. if colburn can manage the game, fresno might have a shot at a W.
Stanford's kicker nails a 53 yd. FG, the longest of his career at the end of the half. That kick was exactly 53.001 yards. Any shorter and it would have bounced back onto the field instead of hitting on the cross bar and bouncing over it.
ope:
I think there was more on that ball than just a foot.
How 'bout that Cardinal? (bishop, pope, monseigneur) That kick was a prayer.
ope: I think there was more on that ball than just a foot.
How 'bout that Cardinal? (bishop, pope, monseigneur) That kick was a prayer.
Stanford's kicker nails a 53 yd. FG, the longest of his career at the end of the half. That kick was exactly 53.001 yards. Any shorter and it would have bounced back onto the field instead of bouncing on the cross bar and over it.
I think there was more on that ball than just a foot.
How 'bout that Cardinal? (bishop, pope, monseigneur) That kick was a prayer.
:toast:
:toast:Humbug loss for Stanford. I don't believe that WF's final TD was legit. Never saw a replay that showed the ball crossing the goal line. In fact every angle they showed on TV suggested it didn't. I didn't bet it but I will remember just the same how Stanford owned most of the game.
They lost for the same reason they lost too many games last season, a porous secondary. When it's crunch time, teams will be able to move the ball on Stanford through the air and that could very well cost them more than just one game. But other than that, they look pretty good.
They lost for the same reason they lost too many games last season, a porous secondary. When it's crunch time, teams will be able to move the ball on Stanford through the air and that could very well cost them more than just one game. But other than that, they look pretty good.
Thanks for the props jpm,
I nearly bet the ML small but I had second thoughts and left it alone. Fresno can play these big road games pretty well, but watch Utah St. make them look bad later in the season. I'm far from sold on Pat Hill's way of doing things, but this situation was tailor made for a Fresno St. bet.
PS..... Nice hit Pags. :toast:
Recap:
Fresno St.+8½/Wisc.* (W)
Oregon St.-6½/UNLV*
UW-20½/Idaho ½*
UW-21/Idaho ½*
WSU+2½/Hawaii ½*
WSU+3/Hawaii ½*
WSU/Hawaii U50½ ½*
WSU/Hawaii U53* ½*
USC -5½/OSU* (GOW)
USC -5/OSU** (GOW)
Now lets see what UCLA can do.
My LEAN is on UT considering that players have already begun dropping off UCLA's active roster like flies. This will be a very tough game for Kevin Prince. I'd like to see how he does compared to Nate Longshore in this same stadium a few years ago. Will he play and look like a deer in the headlights or not?
This situation is made for Kiffin to ride the emotion right on through his old pal's from the Pac-10 on the other side of the field. Too bad Norm Chow doesn't have the athletes yet to challenge UT's defense. It would have been a very good chess game if he did. He may come up with a decent game plan anyway, but they just don't have the horses to keep up. On the other side, UCLA's defense will be one of the better defenses UT will see all year. That's my best take on this. No play for me because the points may be too rich. But I lean UT anyway. (Why do I keep doing that every year only to see UT lay another egg?) No play.
Footnote: What UW managed vs LSU last week opened my eyes a little about more of that SEC hype. Close to 500 yards gained by a Pac-10 bottom feeder vs one of the top defenses in the SEC. What does that tell you?
My LEAN is on UT considering that players have already begun dropping off UCLA's active roster like flies. This will be a very tough game for Kevin Prince. I'd like to see how he does compared to Nate Longshore in this same stadium a few years ago. Will he play and look like a deer in the headlights or not?
This situation is made for Kiffin to ride the emotion right on through his old pal's from the Pac-10 on the other side of the field. Too bad Norm Chow doesn't have the athletes yet to challenge UT's defense. It would have been a very good chess game if he did. He may come up with a decent game plan anyway, but they just don't have the horses to keep up. On the other side, UCLA's defense will be one of the better defenses UT will see all year. That's my best take on this. No play for me because the points may be too rich. But I lean UT anyway. (Why do I keep doing that every year only to see UT lay another egg?) No play.
Footnote: What UW managed vs LSU last week opened my eyes a little about more of that SEC hype. Close to 500 yards gained by a Pac-10 bottom feeder vs one of the top defenses in the SEC. What does that tell you?
Correct and good take.
Too bad they couldn't close the deal today. FWIW - I think it was a terrible decision by Harbaugh not to go for it on 4th & 1 at the Wake 27 late in the 3rd Q. Granted, there's no reason to think that his kicker would miss a 44 yarder after making the one from 54 to close the 1st H, but still.. just thought it was too conservative of a call considering Wake had just closed it to 7 and Gerhart was pounding them.
HK, this game was the kind of game that Stanford will win in another year. Harbaugh keeps scoring these 4* and 5* recruits that are magna cum lauda types -- studs athletically too. All things being equal vs the likes of USC, Stanford might outsmart them which has been their brand of football for a long time.
Hello Cappin Guru....
Here's a little refresher for you... not that I wish to rub it in butttttttttttttttt......
It appears to be accolade time once again for Rahim Moore Mr. Guru.
From what I've seen in this game up to now --
Alteraun Verner+Rahim Moore > Eric Berry+Misc.
Recap:
Crisakes, a garbage TD with 10 seconds left in the game wasted a perfectly good UW cover. Who the hell left the back door open? I wish I would have caught the opening line at 18½. (42-23 final.) We will soon see Udubs true colors.
Grrrrrrrrrrrr.
Fresno St.+8½/Wisc.* (W)
Oregon St.-6½/UNLV*
UW-20½/Idaho ½* (L)
UW-21/Idaho ½* (L)
WSU+2½/Hawaii ½*
WSU+3/Hawaii ½*
WSU/Hawaii U50½ ½*
WSU/Hawaii U53* ½*
USC -5½/OSU* (GOW)
USC -5/OSU** (GOW)
Here's a little refresher for you... not that I wish to rub it in butttttttttttttttt......
No disrespect at all for Eric Berry, but maybe UCLA does have an answer for him too. You probably haven't seen this yet:
***************************************
UCLA's Moore national defensive player of the week
September 6, 2009 7:32 PM
Posted by ESPN.com's Ted Miller
UCLA's sophomore free safety Rahim Moore has been named National Defensive Player of the Week by the Walter Camp Football Foundation.
Moore grabbed three interceptions against San Diego State and tied the school record shared by Ron Carver, Craig Rutledge and Darryl Henley.
He also is one of four nominees for the AT&T All-America Player of the Week award, along with ....
*****************************************
I do give you this, Moore is not established as Berry is but the difference between UCLA's defense and UT's defense on account of Eric Berry isn't as disparaging as it may seem.
BOL
It appears to be accolade time once again for Rahim Moore Mr. Guru.
From what I've seen in this game up to now --
Alteraun Verner+Rahim Moore > Eric Berry+Misc.
Recap:
Crisakes, a garbage TD with 10 seconds left in the game wasted a perfectly good UW cover. Who the hell left the back door open? I wish I would have caught the opening line at 18½. (42-23 final.) We will soon see Udubs true colors.
Grrrrrrrrrrrr.
Fresno St.+8½/Wisc.* (W)
Oregon St.-6½/UNLV*
UW-20½/Idaho ½* (L)
UW-21/Idaho ½* (L)
WSU+2½/Hawaii ½*
WSU+3/Hawaii ½*
WSU/Hawaii U50½ ½*
WSU/Hawaii U53* ½*
USC -5½/OSU* (GOW)
USC -5/OSU** (GOW)
