Dave Essler
Phillies / Mets Over 7.5
I think the reason this opened at 8.5 was because the Met's HAD been hitting and the Phillies have NOT been hitting, but I also think that the move down is wrong, obviously. The weather is fine, reasonably warm, decent breeze R to L. But, this is about the pitchers and not the offenses. The Phillies just saw Wheeler, most of them for the first time. They didn't exactly hammer him, but they plated three runs in a little over five innings, an added another one. So, they now know what to expect. Although Philadelphia has been losing, they've score four or more runs in four of their last five games, and the Mets' bullpen still doesn't have Familia back and is marginal at best. The Mets have hit a ton of bombs over the last week, and now they get Eflin coming off the DL, and he gave up a dozen long balls in only 63 innings last season. He'll probably be on a pitch count, and that's just fine because the Phillies bullpen is as close to pathetic as the Cardinals' pen. With that in mind, I do think the Mets win but am not laying that kind of chalk. This could be one of those cases where I could make the case for the Mets -1.5, but I just won't go against myself and my theory of not doing that with home teams. So, they're probably a great small bet or a reasonable side of a ML parlay. Maybe you just put them with the Yankees and call it good.