Dave Essler
White Sox +200 1st Half
New York hasn't seen Covey. He's primarily (or at least has been in the Minors) a ground ball pitcher. The weather in kinda sh*tty. The Yankees may take a turn through the order before they figure him out. Chicago has won five of seven. At this price it's worth a marble, or perhaps splitting it with +1.5 for the game. Do with it what you will. I'll watch Melky Cabrera bang one into the upper deck with one on it the top of the 5th. For those that didn't get the earlier memo, Tanaka has the third worst WHIP in MLB of those who have started three or more games.
Rockies +1.5 +105
I told you we would fade the Dodgers against ANY LHP yesterday and I DNFC who is pitching for Los Doyas. The Rockies have seen more of him than almost anyone. And, last season (and doing this from memory because I wrote an article on it recently) the Dodgers were 20-5 in games Kershaw started - and if you'd have bet the Dodgers -1.5 in every one of those games you'd have gone 10-15 and I THINK it was a lower % at home where it's even more of a pitchers' park. If I had bigger balls I'd make this a bigger play.
White Sox +200 1st Half
New York hasn't seen Covey. He's primarily (or at least has been in the Minors) a ground ball pitcher. The weather in kinda sh*tty. The Yankees may take a turn through the order before they figure him out. Chicago has won five of seven. At this price it's worth a marble, or perhaps splitting it with +1.5 for the game. Do with it what you will. I'll watch Melky Cabrera bang one into the upper deck with one on it the top of the 5th. For those that didn't get the earlier memo, Tanaka has the third worst WHIP in MLB of those who have started three or more games.
Rockies +1.5 +105
I told you we would fade the Dodgers against ANY LHP yesterday and I DNFC who is pitching for Los Doyas. The Rockies have seen more of him than almost anyone. And, last season (and doing this from memory because I wrote an article on it recently) the Dodgers were 20-5 in games Kershaw started - and if you'd have bet the Dodgers -1.5 in every one of those games you'd have gone 10-15 and I THINK it was a lower % at home where it's even more of a pitchers' park. If I had bigger balls I'd make this a bigger play.
Mike Rose
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves +112
Anytime a club makes a late comeback but falls short, I immediately look to back that team the following day. While I like for that scenario to lead into the final game of a series, I’ll settle for it here tonight with Teheran on the bump in Game 2. Joe Ross is making his 2017 debut, so it’s safe to figure he will be on some sort of leash. That means the Nats shaky pen will play a role in this one. Teheran has been stellar to start the season allowing just 11 hits and 2 ER with a 0.95 ERA and .231 BAA. While he had some issues with the Nats lineup last season, he conceded 3 or less ERs in his pair of home starts against them. The Braves saw their 5 game win streak come to a close last night, and I fully expect them to go all out tonight to get back to their winning ways and even this series up.
Washington Nationals at Atlanta Braves
Play: Atlanta Braves +112
Anytime a club makes a late comeback but falls short, I immediately look to back that team the following day. While I like for that scenario to lead into the final game of a series, I’ll settle for it here tonight with Teheran on the bump in Game 2. Joe Ross is making his 2017 debut, so it’s safe to figure he will be on some sort of leash. That means the Nats shaky pen will play a role in this one. Teheran has been stellar to start the season allowing just 11 hits and 2 ER with a 0.95 ERA and .231 BAA. While he had some issues with the Nats lineup last season, he conceded 3 or less ERs in his pair of home starts against them. The Braves saw their 5 game win streak come to a close last night, and I fully expect them to go all out tonight to get back to their winning ways and even this series up.
Andrew Lange
Baltimore at Cincinnati
Play: Over 9
Baltimore's Ubaldo Jimenez in theory gets a reprieve tonight by facing a National League team on the road. Unfortunately, that team, the Cincinnati Reds, having one of the hottest offenses in MLB. The Reds have pounded out six runs or more in half of their games including nine in last night's series opening win. The home run has played a big part with at least one in all but two contests. Jimenez continues to trend in the wrong direction with 10 earned runs allowed in two starts. He also flashes an alarming 23-11 GB-to-FB ratio. Not a good sign pitching in Great American Ball Park. Cincinnati counters with rookie Amir Garrett who has looked unhittable thus far with two earned runs allowed in two starts. Garrett's two opponents were favorable as Pittsburgh and St. Louis rank near the bottom of the NL in nearly every offensive category. His stuff is solid but not overpowering and he's also been fortunate with a .182 BABIP and 93% LOB rate. Tonight likely serves as a step up in class at Baltimore's lineup features a handful of capable right-handed bats. Don't forget that Baltimore's ace reliever Zach Britton in currently on the DL. Temps expected to be very mild tonight with two squads that have hit a combined 38 home runs in 16 games.
Baltimore at Cincinnati
Play: Over 9
Baltimore's Ubaldo Jimenez in theory gets a reprieve tonight by facing a National League team on the road. Unfortunately, that team, the Cincinnati Reds, having one of the hottest offenses in MLB. The Reds have pounded out six runs or more in half of their games including nine in last night's series opening win. The home run has played a big part with at least one in all but two contests. Jimenez continues to trend in the wrong direction with 10 earned runs allowed in two starts. He also flashes an alarming 23-11 GB-to-FB ratio. Not a good sign pitching in Great American Ball Park. Cincinnati counters with rookie Amir Garrett who has looked unhittable thus far with two earned runs allowed in two starts. Garrett's two opponents were favorable as Pittsburgh and St. Louis rank near the bottom of the NL in nearly every offensive category. His stuff is solid but not overpowering and he's also been fortunate with a .182 BABIP and 93% LOB rate. Tonight likely serves as a step up in class at Baltimore's lineup features a handful of capable right-handed bats. Don't forget that Baltimore's ace reliever Zach Britton in currently on the DL. Temps expected to be very mild tonight with two squads that have hit a combined 38 home runs in 16 games.
SPORTS WAGERS
Miami +129 over SEATTLE
Edinson Volquez had quite a rough season in Kansas City in 2016, posting a 5.37 ERA over 34 starts. He still managed to earn the Opening Day nod for the Marlins and responded with five shutout innings. While Volquez brings plenty of risk because of his shaky control, he’s still throwing hard and gets plenty of grounders. He has a 6/18 BB/K split through 16 innings this year and as long as he’s throwing strikes, he can be very effective. Volquez’s control can abandon him at any time so be aware of the risks (he walked four batters in five innings in his last start) but the risk is worth the reward when he’s not favored. In three starts this year, Volquez is 0-1 with a 3.45/3.69 ERA/XERA split.
Then there’s Felix Hernandez. After three starts covering 18 innings, King Felix has not walked a batter while striking out 15 of them. His ERA is 2.95 and thus, he’s getting lots of praise for returning to his long standing ace status. So, let’s have a look. What we have here is three years of sinking velocity. His fastball now tops off at 91 MPH. A boatload of strikeouts (lots of pitches) and innings pitched have paired with rising control, HR’s allowed, ERA, and WHIP to severely curb hopes of his return to glory. Felix’s modest three mph split between his fastball and change-up has hurt the former more. Again, Hernandez owns a 90-mph fastball now so he relies more on deception than raw stuff. There's a decent chance that we'll see his first 4+ ERA since 2006 this season and we’re going to act accordingly. His “name value” creates inflated prices.
TAMPA BAY -1½ +132 over Detroit
Everything you see on paper is legit regarding Tampa’s ace, Chris Archer. His 2.21 ERA is fully supported by his sub-indicators (12% swing and miss rate, 6/18 BB/K, 47%/29% groundball/fly-ball split). Last season, Archer sabotaged many bankrolls in the 1st half. However, that blowup was fueled by hit % and hr/f misfortune, Archer's late skill rejuvenation last season is the best we've ever seen from him so there's plenty of profit left in that golden arm of his.
Regular readers of this space have seen us fading Jordan Zimmermann for two years now and we’re not going to let up now. We’re already on record suggesting that Zimmermann has few skills and now they’re worse than ever. Jordan Zimmermann has but a few starts left in his career so cash in while you can.
Keep an eye on Zimmermann's declining skills. Zimmermann made us look foolish in April of 2016, when he went 5-0 with a 0.55 ERA over five starts. After 200 emails later suggesting we’re crazy, the Tigers watched in horror as his season fell apart, including a second half marred by lat and neck injuries. The real story was not Zimmermann's 0.55 ERA, it was the miraculous 97% strand rate and minuscule hr/f that helped him post it. His 4.18 xERA in April suggested he was far from dominant, skill-wise. If you compare his April skills to his 2012-15 skills, you see that his K-rate, command, first-pitch strike rate and swinging strike rate were down from previous levels. Zimmermann's luck with strand % and hr/f hid the fact that his skills were continuing to decline from 2014, which looks like his peak. His stats and skills after April were negatively affected by his injuries, but even in May and June, when he made 10 starts and appeared to be healthy, he only posted 5.3 K’s/9 and a 4.69 xERA. Zimmermann posted a 9.62 ERA in six starts this past spring. In two starts this year covering 11 innings, Zimmermann has a BB/K split of 6/6. His groundball/fly-ball rate is a horrendous 22%/53% and his swing and miss rate is 6%. Zimmermann comes into this start with a 5.06/8.45 ERA/xERA split. Zimmermann is throwing 91 MPH fastballs right down Broadway and the Rays, or any team for that matter, will continue to feast of him.
Miami +129 over SEATTLE
Edinson Volquez had quite a rough season in Kansas City in 2016, posting a 5.37 ERA over 34 starts. He still managed to earn the Opening Day nod for the Marlins and responded with five shutout innings. While Volquez brings plenty of risk because of his shaky control, he’s still throwing hard and gets plenty of grounders. He has a 6/18 BB/K split through 16 innings this year and as long as he’s throwing strikes, he can be very effective. Volquez’s control can abandon him at any time so be aware of the risks (he walked four batters in five innings in his last start) but the risk is worth the reward when he’s not favored. In three starts this year, Volquez is 0-1 with a 3.45/3.69 ERA/XERA split.
Then there’s Felix Hernandez. After three starts covering 18 innings, King Felix has not walked a batter while striking out 15 of them. His ERA is 2.95 and thus, he’s getting lots of praise for returning to his long standing ace status. So, let’s have a look. What we have here is three years of sinking velocity. His fastball now tops off at 91 MPH. A boatload of strikeouts (lots of pitches) and innings pitched have paired with rising control, HR’s allowed, ERA, and WHIP to severely curb hopes of his return to glory. Felix’s modest three mph split between his fastball and change-up has hurt the former more. Again, Hernandez owns a 90-mph fastball now so he relies more on deception than raw stuff. There's a decent chance that we'll see his first 4+ ERA since 2006 this season and we’re going to act accordingly. His “name value” creates inflated prices.
TAMPA BAY -1½ +132 over Detroit
Everything you see on paper is legit regarding Tampa’s ace, Chris Archer. His 2.21 ERA is fully supported by his sub-indicators (12% swing and miss rate, 6/18 BB/K, 47%/29% groundball/fly-ball split). Last season, Archer sabotaged many bankrolls in the 1st half. However, that blowup was fueled by hit % and hr/f misfortune, Archer's late skill rejuvenation last season is the best we've ever seen from him so there's plenty of profit left in that golden arm of his.
Regular readers of this space have seen us fading Jordan Zimmermann for two years now and we’re not going to let up now. We’re already on record suggesting that Zimmermann has few skills and now they’re worse than ever. Jordan Zimmermann has but a few starts left in his career so cash in while you can.
Keep an eye on Zimmermann's declining skills. Zimmermann made us look foolish in April of 2016, when he went 5-0 with a 0.55 ERA over five starts. After 200 emails later suggesting we’re crazy, the Tigers watched in horror as his season fell apart, including a second half marred by lat and neck injuries. The real story was not Zimmermann's 0.55 ERA, it was the miraculous 97% strand rate and minuscule hr/f that helped him post it. His 4.18 xERA in April suggested he was far from dominant, skill-wise. If you compare his April skills to his 2012-15 skills, you see that his K-rate, command, first-pitch strike rate and swinging strike rate were down from previous levels. Zimmermann's luck with strand % and hr/f hid the fact that his skills were continuing to decline from 2014, which looks like his peak. His stats and skills after April were negatively affected by his injuries, but even in May and June, when he made 10 starts and appeared to be healthy, he only posted 5.3 K’s/9 and a 4.69 xERA. Zimmermann posted a 9.62 ERA in six starts this past spring. In two starts this year covering 11 innings, Zimmermann has a BB/K split of 6/6. His groundball/fly-ball rate is a horrendous 22%/53% and his swing and miss rate is 6%. Zimmermann comes into this start with a 5.06/8.45 ERA/xERA split. Zimmermann is throwing 91 MPH fastballs right down Broadway and the Rays, or any team for that matter, will continue to feast of him.
SPORTS WAGERS
Ottawa +145 over BOSTON
The price on the Bruins in this one, like every other game, continues to defy logic. While the B's might want to point to one "bad" call in Game 3, it doesn’t change that they have been outplayed for a large portion of this series. Bruins head coach Bruce Cassidy called it demoralizing and disappointing. There’s not a lot of fight in those words.
Last time out, the Bruins were outshot 32-20 at home in a 4-3 overtime loss that had no business going to the extra frame. Coach Cassidy has been critical of his teams starts, especially after falling down 3-0 at home in Game 3. Without saying so, Cassidy has a legit excuse as to why Boston is the second best team here. You see, he’s rolling with a makeshift crew on the backend that is led by a 40-year-old who plays 30 minutes a night. Zdeno Chara was great in his time but asking him to carry this load is unreasonable. The Bruins are progressively fading away and their overworked and under-skilled defense is a big reason for it. The longer this series goes, the worse it's going get and Cassidy isn’t making it any easier. The coach ran a tough, full practice on their off day when he could have used it for a day’s rest instead. Time will tell if that strategy works or not but the decision reeks of desperation after an embarrassing home effort that the score made more flattering than the performance. This ain't the minors. A bag skate isn't going to flip the switch. The Bruins are old, tired and beat up and a little rest would have served them well. Instead, the focus has been on the penalty call that went against the Bruins in overtime of Game 3 that lead to Ottawa's power play winner.
With a 2-1 series lead, the Senators spent Monday resting and reflecting on the series. Ottawa has owned Boston in recent memory by going 6-1 against the Bruins this season including four straight victories at TD Garden dating back to last season. Sens captain Erik Karlsson has lit the Bruins up all year with six points in seven games. Coach Cassidy said he wanted to keep “closer tabs” on Karlsson for the remainder of the series. Good luck with that, Coach. The Sens were a +165 dog before the series started and they were a pooch in their own barn for Games 1 and 2. For whatever reason, this market has written an incorrect script for this entire series including this one. Until the market corrects itself we will continue to bring the hammer down and we’re not about to stop now. Once again the better team is taking back a crazy number.
CALGARY -108 over Anaheim
The greatest thing about this series thus far is that it’s played on the West Coast so most of this market has only been able to catch glimpses of it. What the market sees is Anaheim up three games to zilch and that’s what it reacts to. Results are the only thing that matters in the marketplace, which is another one of those market inefficiencies that we’re often discussing. Performances mean very little to the general public which is something we’re going to try and take advantage of. This one also has a similar feel to last night’s Game 4 between Pittsburgh and Columbus.
The Jackets took quite a bit of money in Game 3 and subsequently blew a 3-1 lead and eventually lost in OT. Last night, the market mostly wanted no part of the Jackets, which created a zig-zag effect. Zig-zagging refers to betting on one team, losing the bet and then fading the team you just bet the very next time out based on what you just saw. That comes into effect for this game too. The Flames took heavy action in Game 3 and went up 4-1 in the second period, only to see the Ducks rally furiously in the third to tie it up and send it into OT. Those that bet the Flames in Game 3 are now likely to make the same mistake and fade the Flames here based on the results.
Now the price on the Flames is overly deflated, which is our prompt to step in. What the results do not reveal is that Calgary has clearly been the better team this entire series. The Ducks have certainly had their moments and they’re a quality team to be sure but they have not been the better team for three games now and that’s not likely to change here. The difference in this series has been nothing but puck luck working against the Flames. Had Calgary got the same bounces that Anaheim has had, this series would still be 3-0 but it would be in favour of Calgary.
The Flames are not going out without a fight. Like the Jackets last night, they’ll leave nothing on the table here. This is a disciplined, talented and quality outfit that is not dead yet and the Ducks are going to have to be at their absolute best to put them away. Even Anaheim’s best effort, which is not likely here, may not be able to put away the strong-willed Flames.
Calgary’s Glen Gulutzan is the next “superstar” coach in this league. His techniques are advanced and his players love him. The Calgary Flames may not win here but we’re going to get a tremendous effort for our money and if all things break equal, they’ll win tonight and may even make a series out of this yet. There is no question where the value lies in this one.
Ottawa +145 over BOSTON
The price on the Bruins in this one, like every other game, continues to defy logic. While the B's might want to point to one "bad" call in Game 3, it doesn’t change that they have been outplayed for a large portion of this series. Bruins head coach Bruce Cassidy called it demoralizing and disappointing. There’s not a lot of fight in those words.
Last time out, the Bruins were outshot 32-20 at home in a 4-3 overtime loss that had no business going to the extra frame. Coach Cassidy has been critical of his teams starts, especially after falling down 3-0 at home in Game 3. Without saying so, Cassidy has a legit excuse as to why Boston is the second best team here. You see, he’s rolling with a makeshift crew on the backend that is led by a 40-year-old who plays 30 minutes a night. Zdeno Chara was great in his time but asking him to carry this load is unreasonable. The Bruins are progressively fading away and their overworked and under-skilled defense is a big reason for it. The longer this series goes, the worse it's going get and Cassidy isn’t making it any easier. The coach ran a tough, full practice on their off day when he could have used it for a day’s rest instead. Time will tell if that strategy works or not but the decision reeks of desperation after an embarrassing home effort that the score made more flattering than the performance. This ain't the minors. A bag skate isn't going to flip the switch. The Bruins are old, tired and beat up and a little rest would have served them well. Instead, the focus has been on the penalty call that went against the Bruins in overtime of Game 3 that lead to Ottawa's power play winner.
With a 2-1 series lead, the Senators spent Monday resting and reflecting on the series. Ottawa has owned Boston in recent memory by going 6-1 against the Bruins this season including four straight victories at TD Garden dating back to last season. Sens captain Erik Karlsson has lit the Bruins up all year with six points in seven games. Coach Cassidy said he wanted to keep “closer tabs” on Karlsson for the remainder of the series. Good luck with that, Coach. The Sens were a +165 dog before the series started and they were a pooch in their own barn for Games 1 and 2. For whatever reason, this market has written an incorrect script for this entire series including this one. Until the market corrects itself we will continue to bring the hammer down and we’re not about to stop now. Once again the better team is taking back a crazy number.
CALGARY -108 over Anaheim
The greatest thing about this series thus far is that it’s played on the West Coast so most of this market has only been able to catch glimpses of it. What the market sees is Anaheim up three games to zilch and that’s what it reacts to. Results are the only thing that matters in the marketplace, which is another one of those market inefficiencies that we’re often discussing. Performances mean very little to the general public which is something we’re going to try and take advantage of. This one also has a similar feel to last night’s Game 4 between Pittsburgh and Columbus.
The Jackets took quite a bit of money in Game 3 and subsequently blew a 3-1 lead and eventually lost in OT. Last night, the market mostly wanted no part of the Jackets, which created a zig-zag effect. Zig-zagging refers to betting on one team, losing the bet and then fading the team you just bet the very next time out based on what you just saw. That comes into effect for this game too. The Flames took heavy action in Game 3 and went up 4-1 in the second period, only to see the Ducks rally furiously in the third to tie it up and send it into OT. Those that bet the Flames in Game 3 are now likely to make the same mistake and fade the Flames here based on the results.
Now the price on the Flames is overly deflated, which is our prompt to step in. What the results do not reveal is that Calgary has clearly been the better team this entire series. The Ducks have certainly had their moments and they’re a quality team to be sure but they have not been the better team for three games now and that’s not likely to change here. The difference in this series has been nothing but puck luck working against the Flames. Had Calgary got the same bounces that Anaheim has had, this series would still be 3-0 but it would be in favour of Calgary.
The Flames are not going out without a fight. Like the Jackets last night, they’ll leave nothing on the table here. This is a disciplined, talented and quality outfit that is not dead yet and the Ducks are going to have to be at their absolute best to put them away. Even Anaheim’s best effort, which is not likely here, may not be able to put away the strong-willed Flames.
Calgary’s Glen Gulutzan is the next “superstar” coach in this league. His techniques are advanced and his players love him. The Calgary Flames may not win here but we’re going to get a tremendous effort for our money and if all things break equal, they’ll win tonight and may even make a series out of this yet. There is no question where the value lies in this one.
Brad Wilton
Game One played true to form between Portland and Golden State, as the Warriors won a high-scoring 121-109 affair in Oakland, and the teams once again played Over the total.
The series numbers show a 6-2 Over surge the last 8 series meetings, and if you want to go back a little further, the Over is 7-2 the last 9 meetings between the teams at Oracle Arena, and 19-7 overall the last 26 times the teams have jumped ball.
Portland is now 2-0-1 Over their past 3 games played, and 5-4-1 Over the total in their last 10 games contested.
Golden State is now 6-3 Over their last 9 games going back to the regular season.
When you have the guys on the floor that know how to put the ball through the hoop (and that is even without Kevin Durant!), and most of them from long range, well you surely have a recipe for plenty of points being scored.
Blazers and Warriors land Over the total one more time.
2* PORTLAND-GOLDEN STATE OVER
Game One played true to form between Portland and Golden State, as the Warriors won a high-scoring 121-109 affair in Oakland, and the teams once again played Over the total.
The series numbers show a 6-2 Over surge the last 8 series meetings, and if you want to go back a little further, the Over is 7-2 the last 9 meetings between the teams at Oracle Arena, and 19-7 overall the last 26 times the teams have jumped ball.
Portland is now 2-0-1 Over their past 3 games played, and 5-4-1 Over the total in their last 10 games contested.
Golden State is now 6-3 Over their last 9 games going back to the regular season.
When you have the guys on the floor that know how to put the ball through the hoop (and that is even without Kevin Durant!), and most of them from long range, well you surely have a recipe for plenty of points being scored.
Blazers and Warriors land Over the total one more time.
2* PORTLAND-GOLDEN STATE OVER
Chris Jordan
At home, on the brink of a sweep in the opening round, and I can invest in a home underdog tonight? Yeah, my free winner is on the St. Louis Blues, as I think they'll take care of the Minnesota Wild in Game 4.
Up 3-0, the Blues have only four goals from their forwards in the series, but haven't gotten a one from their leading scorer, right winger Vladimir Tarasenko.
St. Louis is in the kill zone now, and after scoring 39 goals in the regular season, he is due for a big game. I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see him score a couple, maybe even a hat trick.
Meanwhile, scoring goals has been a struggle for the Minnesota Wild, who finished second in the NHL in the regular season with 266 goals. But in this series, they've scored just one goal in each of the first three games.
Take St. Louis tonight, as this series is over.
1* BLUES
At home, on the brink of a sweep in the opening round, and I can invest in a home underdog tonight? Yeah, my free winner is on the St. Louis Blues, as I think they'll take care of the Minnesota Wild in Game 4.
Up 3-0, the Blues have only four goals from their forwards in the series, but haven't gotten a one from their leading scorer, right winger Vladimir Tarasenko.
St. Louis is in the kill zone now, and after scoring 39 goals in the regular season, he is due for a big game. I honestly wouldn't be surprised to see him score a couple, maybe even a hat trick.
Meanwhile, scoring goals has been a struggle for the Minnesota Wild, who finished second in the NHL in the regular season with 266 goals. But in this series, they've scored just one goal in each of the first three games.
Take St. Louis tonight, as this series is over.
1* BLUES
Eric Schroeder
My Bonus Play for Wednesday night is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Baltimore Orioles, and I want you listing one pitcher in this one, as I like rookie Amir Garrett to handle the O's.
I told you about this kid Garrett in his MLB debut against the St. Louis Cardinals, on April 7. Now I'm playing him as my comp winner, and will remind you a little bit about him for tonight's complimentary winner.
Garrett, who was born in Victorville, Calif., played basketball for prep powerhouse Findlay Prep in Henderson, Nev., before playing hoops at St. John's. He was destined for a basketball career, but held a training session for MLB scouts, during which he threw a fastball around 95 miles per hour. The Reds scooped him up in the 2011 Draft, in the 22nd round, and signed with the Reds, receiving a $1 million signing bonus and permission to continue his basketball career.
That's quite an allowance for a 22nd rounder, yet understandable since he was considered a basketball prospect. As we've seen early on this season, he is one helluva ball player, and something tells me this kid is going to bring some heat in his first home start for the Reds.
His heater is still consistently in the low- to mid-90s, his slider has improved over the years, he's located both of his hard pitches and commands them to both sides of the plate, and his change-up remains in the works and can be an out pitch.
I'm taking this kid, simply because he's constantly defied odds and done what people said he couldn't do. Take the home team here and list Garrett ONLY.
2* REDS
My Bonus Play for Wednesday night is on the Cincinnati Reds over the Baltimore Orioles, and I want you listing one pitcher in this one, as I like rookie Amir Garrett to handle the O's.
I told you about this kid Garrett in his MLB debut against the St. Louis Cardinals, on April 7. Now I'm playing him as my comp winner, and will remind you a little bit about him for tonight's complimentary winner.
Garrett, who was born in Victorville, Calif., played basketball for prep powerhouse Findlay Prep in Henderson, Nev., before playing hoops at St. John's. He was destined for a basketball career, but held a training session for MLB scouts, during which he threw a fastball around 95 miles per hour. The Reds scooped him up in the 2011 Draft, in the 22nd round, and signed with the Reds, receiving a $1 million signing bonus and permission to continue his basketball career.
That's quite an allowance for a 22nd rounder, yet understandable since he was considered a basketball prospect. As we've seen early on this season, he is one helluva ball player, and something tells me this kid is going to bring some heat in his first home start for the Reds.
His heater is still consistently in the low- to mid-90s, his slider has improved over the years, he's located both of his hard pitches and commands them to both sides of the plate, and his change-up remains in the works and can be an out pitch.
I'm taking this kid, simply because he's constantly defied odds and done what people said he couldn't do. Take the home team here and list Garrett ONLY.
2* REDS
Jack Brayman
My free winner for Tuesday night is on the Washington Capitals over the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The Capitals are struggling in the postseason once again, but they're better than what we've seen, and they need a breakout game. Trailing the young Maple Leafs 2-1, I have to believe Game 4 of this Eastern Conference first-round playoff series has become a must-win for the Caps.
Look for Washington to be more aggressive, especially down the stretch, putting as much pressure on goal as possible. After going more than 13 minutes without a shot on goal to start the third period in Game 3, that has to change in this one.
I also expect Capitals goaltender Braden Holtby to be at his best tonight, and wouldn't be surprised to see him score a shutout.
Take the road team here.
3* CAPITALS
My free winner for Tuesday night is on the Washington Capitals over the Toronto Maple Leafs.
The Capitals are struggling in the postseason once again, but they're better than what we've seen, and they need a breakout game. Trailing the young Maple Leafs 2-1, I have to believe Game 4 of this Eastern Conference first-round playoff series has become a must-win for the Caps.
Look for Washington to be more aggressive, especially down the stretch, putting as much pressure on goal as possible. After going more than 13 minutes without a shot on goal to start the third period in Game 3, that has to change in this one.
I also expect Capitals goaltender Braden Holtby to be at his best tonight, and wouldn't be surprised to see him score a shutout.
Take the road team here.
3* CAPITALS
ANDRE RAMIREZ
Rangers vs. A's
Play: A's -1½
The Rangers have dropped four of their last five games overall and are 1-5 in their last six road games versus a team with a losing record. They're also 4-11 in their last 15 games versus a right-handed starter and have now dropped four of their last five divisional games as well. Perez is 6-5 against the A's, and is 3-2 in the Coliseum. The A's will send Hahn to the mound. Hahn is a great pitcher, and is pitching a 3.75 ERA. Hahn takes the victory here. 7-4.
Rangers vs. A's
Play: A's -1½
The Rangers have dropped four of their last five games overall and are 1-5 in their last six road games versus a team with a losing record. They're also 4-11 in their last 15 games versus a right-handed starter and have now dropped four of their last five divisional games as well. Perez is 6-5 against the A's, and is 3-2 in the Coliseum. The A's will send Hahn to the mound. Hahn is a great pitcher, and is pitching a 3.75 ERA. Hahn takes the victory here. 7-4.
ALEX SMART
Nationals vs. Braves
Play: Nationals -116
Tehran despite of pitching well, to start this campaign had issues dealing with the Nationals last season, as is evident by going 0-1 in three starts with a 5.50 ERA in three starts against Washington. Meanwhile, Ross, the Nationals pitcher, is a young hurler with good stuff and must not be underestimated. Last season, Ross gave up one run on six hits in three innings in losing his only appearance against the Braves in 2016, but proved his abilities in that tilt. With said, look for the overall better bullpen and batting order, which is owned by Washington to have an edge here today. Washington took 15 of 19 games last season vs the Braves and have the edge again.
Atlanta is just 1-6 in Teherans last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.Braves are also 0-7 in Teherans last 7 starts vs. Nationals.
Nationals vs. Braves
Play: Nationals -116
Tehran despite of pitching well, to start this campaign had issues dealing with the Nationals last season, as is evident by going 0-1 in three starts with a 5.50 ERA in three starts against Washington. Meanwhile, Ross, the Nationals pitcher, is a young hurler with good stuff and must not be underestimated. Last season, Ross gave up one run on six hits in three innings in losing his only appearance against the Braves in 2016, but proved his abilities in that tilt. With said, look for the overall better bullpen and batting order, which is owned by Washington to have an edge here today. Washington took 15 of 19 games last season vs the Braves and have the edge again.
Atlanta is just 1-6 in Teherans last 7 home starts vs. a team with a winning record.Braves are also 0-7 in Teherans last 7 starts vs. Nationals.
