WC from Germany

chriscol · Jul 1, 2006

3 winners and a push and i got ickets for the italy match...what a great day.

Saturday:

Tough day:

England- Portugal: No play

for me it s a complete open match: England has not shown much and is struggeling big time to score, but i am not sure how ortugal reacts without Deco and Ronaldo probably not playing. Figo plays well, but the missing players bring both teams on same level. if i had to play i would go with portugal +0.5 as this will be a close one and it s good to have the + in hand then.

Brazil- France: Brazil -0.5 @ 1.78

Brazil just the better team here. They are not playing great (or how everybody expects them to play), but that s the way their coach sets them up and wants them to play. they will produce the right result again today. France has no business of being here in the quaters and is carried by Zidane's spirit of his last WC. Couls be a close one , but Brazil to win.

BOL to all

chriscol · Jul 4, 2006

rec so far for WC

32-21 +5.737 units

Tuesday

Germany- Italy: Germany pk,-0.5 @ 2.05 and over 1.5,2 @ 1.917

it s a very tight game like the GER-ARG game. key factors i see are:

Germany: main factor is the home-advantage with Dortmund being their favourite venue..they are without a loss (13-1-0) in this stadium and it s a location they try to play every important match (also during qualifications). That s a big mental factor. i dont believe in all the "overachieving" the italy-backers posting here. this team has developed a lot during the last 6 weeks. no comparison at all to the test-matches. they are suddenly very solid on defense and always capable of scoring with Klose, but also from long range. i dont see the loss of Frings as a big factor, because from all you can hear from the german camp, it will work as extra motivation.

italy: played great so far. solid as ever on defense and very dangerous on the counter attack. but i also saw some weakness against ukraine on defense.they were a bit lucky not to get a goal. the defense style of italy is defending the box, so there is always the chance for crosses from germany as the strong italian defense is based on not letting the other shoot, but not to prevend the pass before. this can be dangerous against germany as i will be very difficult to deny Klose and Co from every scoring chance. The defending style of ARG (to prevend already the pass to the strikers) was much more difficult for Germany.
On the other hand i also expect Italy to score as their strikers need basically only one scoring chance to score. they are the most efficient team in that category IMO.

with these factors i see a "safety first" attitude of both teams, but eventually there will be scoring and probably from both sides. that s why i like the over. if the first goal is scored in the first 60 min there should be at least 2 goals.
The side is a bit of a homer pick as there is really not much between the team, but i still go with the home-advantage here.
Key-factor will be scoring the first goal.

some props for fun i like:
First yellow card: italy @ 1.89
they will play their normal style of holding, small tackles, complaining, time wasting..nothing against it,cause it s what they do and what works since ages, but it s a good chance to lead to the first yellow,especially with germany expected to be the first team trying to attack.

Total fouls over 39 @1.90

i really like that one. not that i expect an unfair game, but with italy involved and the close match we all expect there will be lots of small fouls to destroy the flow of play..these will add up.

BOL to all

"schick den Poldi vor, schiess den Ball ins Tor"

Duckstabber · Jul 4, 2006

I'm on Italy +0.25 but good luck to you and Germany, Chris!

I like your fouls prop, btw.

chriscol · Jul 4, 2006

that s ok, but we both like the over, which is the stronger play for me anyway. guess that s a good sign

chriscol · Jul 4, 2006

i forgot another positive omen for today:
july 4th 1954..the day germany beat hungary in the world cup final :103631605

Duckstabber · Jul 4, 2006

I'm sorry to see Germany go, Chris - but you guys did a great job and exceeded all expectations. (At least all expectations of those outside of Germany)

:toast:

james · Jul 4, 2006

too bad for germany, blame Schneider

I still got my money, I don't know why people are not willing to bet draws

oh and ballack was a complete dud, I wonder how glad chelsea are for paying up the nose for him now

chriscol · Jul 5, 2006

Duckstabber said:
I'm sorry to see Germany go, Chris - but you guys did a great job and exceeded all expectations. (At least all expectations of those outside of Germany)

:toast:

thx. they exceeded also all(realistic) expectations in germany. nobody got bad feelings here and is thankful for the team and Klinsmann and the big party they built up in our country. we are still looking forward to saturday now and will make it "our" final.
Italy probably deserved it, but i didnt see much between the teams. to be honest it was a draw from the begin on. it s just tough to loose in last minute.
I hope italy is winning it now against portugal, but that has to do with me hating the french.:cryingcry :Sad Face:

hm2.0 · Jul 5, 2006

Tough loss chriscol, Germany played an exciting brand of futbol in the tournament. Perhaps he will bring that style to the US. Any word on Klinsmann's future?

I was hoping for a Germany v. Portugal final. Italy outplayed Germany but I thought it was gonna go to a shootout...where Italia would've had the opportunity to choke.

chriscol · Jul 5, 2006

hm2.0 said:
Tough loss chriscol, Germany played an exciting brand of futbol in the tournament. Perhaps he will bring that style to the US. Any word on Klinsmann's future?

Not yet, everybody wants him to stay. but he has a history of making his own decision and most of the times against the public opinion.
He will decide after the 3rd place match.

joelatti · Jul 5, 2006

Any opinion on France v. Portugal?

chriscol · Jul 5, 2006

Wednesday

Portugal- France: Portugal +0.5 @ 1.78

similar to yesterday i dont see much between the teams. it tough to cap due to the suspension/Injury situation

Portugal: although not convinced that they are a rea good team i start to believe a bit in it. at least they are producing results. they finished 2nd in Euro 2004 and are now in the semis... Figo plays great, but he is not 100 % today. They have shown they are able to fight (which is unusual for portuguese teams of the past) in "the battle of Nürnberg" against Holland.
They overcame the suspension of Deco by grinding out the win over England. Today he is back. I am not sure if they are better or not with Deco, but with Figo not at 100 %. The WC results sofar just show me they can tactically adjust to every situation, which should make it a very close game.

France: They are old and Henry is not in top-form. The positive factor is the insspired play of Zidane which is carrying the whole team through the WC. I dont know why france is favourite here. It can only be because of the win over Brazil, which played on the day crap as we all know.

It will probably another low scoring day as the match yesterday. maybe not as exciting, but another OT is very well possible.
If you cannot find the +0.5 i like the portugal advance @ 2.63 also.

BOL to all

quantumleap · Jul 5, 2006

Too bad about our German team. I was surprised when I found out they lost to Italy.

I'll be sure to follow the German leagues this fall along with you chris. I'll try to bet the EPL, French and German leagues.

jwblue · Jul 5, 2006

Portugal +.5 is an absolute gift.

IS

chriscol · Jul 7, 2006

be careful with the germany play tomorrow. i think germany is the play, but they will field a very different side (that s the reason why line is slightly moving against germany)

Right now:
on defense: Metzelder and Friedrich definetely out with injury (possible substitutes are Huth and Janssen)

goal: it looks like Olli Kahn will get the start over Lehmann to give him a nice fairwell in what would be his last game for Germany

strikers: Klose is doubtful, but i expect him to play (he made comments he want to win the golden shoe)
Rumors are also that Klinsmann will play at some stage in the match players who did not play so far.

I ll update later, when i get news here i Germany.

chriscol · Jul 7, 2006

Ballack definetely out and now Borowski in midfield is questionable. De could not train today. Schweinsteiger would be the substitute.

joelatti · Jul 7, 2006

Chriscol...What do you think about playing Port. side play? +.5 goals

chriscol · Jul 7, 2006

no, i ll not play portugal as th egerman team is still capable and i am not sure how motivated portugal will be. i ll wait till tomorrow morning to get some more news..probably will lay off a side play.
write up will be up around 5 am ET

chriscol · Jul 8, 2006

Saturday:

Germany- Portugal: Germany -0.5 @ 1.909 and over 2,2.5 @ 1.925 !! 2 units!!

Germany is playing with different line up than in other matches. Kahn instead of lehmann in goal (should not make a difference), janssen and Huth for metzelder and friedrich on defense, ballack out, very likely borowski out.
What does that mean? it will be a little bit the "old " german team we know from the friendlies before the WC. which means are much more offensive playing team and not as solid on defense.
Ballack took over a very defensive role during the WC, which helped the whole team to stabilize with his absence i expect them to play a much faster tempo and not as much preferrence on standing solid on defense.
The German set-up is perfect to lead to an over in the match.
other factors for the over are:
-play for 3rd place is usually very entertaining. teams have nothing to loose. also portugal will try to go for it and not play defense first as they did successfully during the WC.
- This will be a "party game" for all fans and players. expect both teams to have some kind of celebration and relaxed style of play to put on a show for their great fans.
On the side play i still go with germany. they value moved toward germany as you can now get 1.90 after opening line of 1.75
It s a matter of who wants it more and i think the young germans are more hungry to close out their great performance with a win. They will also play for coach Klinsmann, who has not decided yet, if he will continue. You will hear the fans probably celebrate Klinsmann for 90 min to convince him to stay and players will play for him.
Portugal i am not so sure. they are saying they want to finish third, but i am not sure they really care. they have an successful event anyway and for FIGO and co. the dream would have been the championship.that s over.
the over is definetely the much stronger play, if you choose just to play one.

BOL to all

charleslanger · Jul 8, 2006

chriscol said:
Saturday:

Germany- Portugal: Germany -0.5 @ 1.909 and over 2,2.5 @ 1.925 !! 2 units!!

Germany is playing with different line up than in other matches. Kahn instead of lehmann in goal (should not make a difference), janssen and Huth for metzelder and friedrich on defense, ballack out, very likely borowski out.
What does that mean? it will be a little bit the "old " german team we know from the friendlies before the WC. which means are much more offensive playing team and not as solid on defense.
Ballack took over a very defensive role during the WC, which helped the whole team to stabilize with his absence i expect them to play a much faster tempo and not as much preferrence on standing solid on defense.
The German set-up is perfect to lead to an over in the match.
other factors for the over are:
-play for 3rd place is usually very entertaining. teams have nothing to loose. also portugal will try to go for it and not play defense first as they did successfully during the WC.
- This will be a "party game" for all fans and players. expect both teams to have some kind of celebration and relaxed style of play to put on a show for their great fans.
On the side play i still go with germany. they value moved toward germany as you can now get 1.90 after opening line of 1.75
It s a matter of who wants it more and i think the young germans are more hungry to close out their great performance with a win. They will also play for coach Klinsmann, who has not decided yet, if he will continue. You will hear the fans probably celebrate Klinsmann for 90 min to convince him to stay and players will play for him.
Portugal i am not so sure. they are saying they want to finish third, but i am not sure they really care. they have an successful event anyway and for FIGO and co. the dream would have been the championship.that s over.
the over is definetely the much stronger play, if you choose just to play one.

BOL to all

Danke for all your hard work & generosity towards us all.

And i would agree with you even if there were NO substitutions--- just on the fact it's 3rd/4th game, + on home soil...Portugal vulnerable to speedy attacks-- & what's the incentive for POR also to continue their usual physically reckless defense- esp. when witnessing their limping teammates..

All the best to you-- many thanks again.

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