WC from Germany

[chriscol]

rec 4-6 -3.018 units

Tuesday:

Korea- Togo: Korea -0.5 @ 2.08

Actually i am not sure about both teams. But from past experience Korea should be better. Togo was a surprise qualification and they have alreayd shown in the africa-cup that they dont belong here. They have also this big trouble with the federation, coach and money. Federation did not pay the bonus for qualification. Thaen players didnt practise for 3 days to get the money, then the coach left due to the rediculous behaviour of the federation, they were looking for new coach, players traveeled to get their coach back and now he is back . All that during last week. if this is not a distraction than i dont know. Go with Korea.

France- Swiss: Swiss +0.5,+1 @ 1.917

OK France had some good results in recent friendlies, but i am still not sold on that team. They had big trouble to qualify from a group with swiss. both games ended in a draw. Swiss is a solid team, offense and defense. they know france and definetely have no respect. it s a good chance it will be another draw. but definetely no clear france win, which makes the play obvious.

Brazil- croatia : over 2.5 @ 1.862

Brazil might win with2 or 3 goals as everybody thinks, but i am not too sure what to expect from croatia. these guys can definetely play, if they want. and they should be motivated vs. brazil. If brazil does not score an early goal (as all favs did so far in WC), this could be a close match with both teams scoring. even if it will be a big brazil win,what most people think, then brazil will cover the total themselves. so the over is the much better play than the side IMO.

BOL to all

 

[Mindware]

Glad to see you're on S.Korea. As for France/Swiss match, I'm on the other side. But GL

 

[chriscol]

off to a good start.
i have a feeling today will be the first day the favs really stumble...go swiss, go croatia (and lots of goals).

 

[chriscol]

I enjoy reading your writeups--keep'em coming.
How much are tickets going for there for good matches?? two lesser teams??

Enjoy

Tickets cost the same for all matches (if you buy officially) - doesnt matter who play: They range from 100 Euros (125 USD) to 35 Euros

 

[chriscol]

2-1 yesterday, now for the WC

rec 6-7 -2.021 units (pushes rec as no play)

Big day today

Wednesday

Spain- Ukraine: Spain -0.5 @ 1.91

Top match of the group. I was surprised of some spanish pre-WC games. they seemed to me playing good team football. those friendly have nothing to say, but i really like this team this year. they are dangerous on offense (even with Rail not starting) and are solid on defense. They have not lost one match under their coach so far.
The Ukraine is for many a sleeper. I agree they are a solid team and will fight it out against TUN for 2nd place, but i dont expect them to beat Spain. they have a solid defense, but the whole team is relying on Shevtchenko. he is a top class striker, but he is coming off a injury and did not play in preparation. Although he is starting he will not be 100 %. I dont see this enough to beat Spain.

Tunesia- S.Arabia: Tunesia -0.5 @ 1.89 !! 2 units!!

I dont understand this line? Tunesia is a very solid and proven African team. they are a different class the S.Arabia, even with one of their top-strikers out with injury. To be honest i dont know much about S. Arabia, besides all their players are playing in domestic league, which is not a good sign for me. ALso they will not start one of their top-strikers.

Germany- Poland: Germany -1 @ 1.91 and over 2.5 @ 1.833 !! 2 units!!

The total must be a trap, but i am biting. i was thinking about a reason, why it is so low and cant find one. maybe, cause two european teams are playing??? BUT, Germany is very,very dangerous on offense as proven during last 2 years and opening match. They are very confident right now and always seem to score at least twice. Their defense is very vulnurable, if you play quick and on counter-attack. but this is not the set-up for this match. Poland has to go for it after opening loss. that could be big time in germany's favour. it make it easier (slower) on defense for them and they dont have to open up too much to play their high powering offense.

Poland has a good reputation in europe from qualification, but something is wrong with the team. they has terrible friendly results before the WC and that showed again in opener. There are also all the time rumors coming up off team-intern trouble with players and coach.
Both teams will score here and germany will win.

BOL to all

 

[quantumleap]

chris:

Nice call on the Spain pick. I am with you on the Deutschland/Polen über 2,5.

So far I am 3-0 on WC picks.

 

[chriscol]

both big plays lost yesterday.

i dont have time for a write up right now, but here are the plays (i ll be back from work for the sweden game and have a write up for that game around 1 pm ET).

Ecuador- Costa Rica: Ecuador pk,-0.5 @ 1.76

England- T & T: England -1.5,-2 @ 1.795

Sweden- Paraguay: Sweden -0.5 @ 2.02

BOL to all

 

[chriscol]

3-0 on wednesday.

now rec for WC 10-9 -2.931 units

Thursday

Argentina- Serbia & M: Argentina -0.5,-1 @1.909

Argentina was impressive in first match. even with ivory coact probably deserving a draw, they were very solid on defense (as we know it from past tourneys), but also very dangerous on offense. it looked to me like they can speed up the pace on offense,whenever they want.
Serbia played to their strength in first match and lost a bit unlucky IMO in first match to holland. They are normally relying on a solid defense (only one conceided goal in qualification), but that s the problem here: they have two defensive players from first team out due to injury and the situation in the group idctates that a draw is probably not enough for them. they have to go for a win.
the coach is already talking about a much more offensive setup, but there are also player's comments that they are afraid of this style of playing as they are not used to it. Bottom line is they will play more offensive than normal (dont expect an offensive explosion), which will open up spaces for the quick argentina strikers. that will be the key for arg as it was against ivory.

Netherlands- Ivory coast: Ivory coast +0.5 @ 1.95

open match between two good teams. ivory coast is in need of a win here. they looked ok on defense and are definetely dangerous on offense.
The netherlands as one of the favs coming to the WC had some problems against S&M. There are also some bad vibes in holland going on right now. Robben is getting critized, by media and players of being to selfish. Due to that they were not as dangerous on offense as they normally be, caus ethe strength of this team is usually to be a "team". i am looking for that trend to continue and the highly motivated africans get their first points here.

Mexico- Angola: Mexico -1 @ 1.952 !! 2 units!!

Mexico was as solid as i expected it in first match. they are able to score, which should be enough against an angola team, which is no offensive thread at all.
I still believe Angola is one of the worst teams in WC. their 0-1 loss was only because they were extra motivated against their former colony-power portugal and because Portugal didnt seem to have any interest in putting in an efford during the game. Should be an easy win here.

for info: in an normal setup both group C matches should be low scoring, but i am staying away as both dogs have to go for the win, which could open it up a bit.

BOL to all

 

[chriscol]

now rec for WC 10-9 -2.931 units

Saturday

it s a tough da today and it s not looking like i ll have a play today:

here my thoughts for those interested:

Portugal- Iran: Portugal looked not very motivated in first match. they seem to have trouble scoring (that was already the trend in the late friendlies against weak opposition). They might win, but to cover a big hdc is too risky. Iran broke completely physically down after 65 min. so you cannot put money on them to. maybe for live-betting it s a fact to look into.

Italy- USA: Italy should win. i was impressed with first game. but to cover more than 1 goals is always risky with them as they normally take the lead and then shut it down. USA will bounce back, but probbly not enough for italy.

Czech- Ghana: Czech played well,but today without Koller. Not sure how they respond. Ghana was physically strong as expected, but had trouble to score.

BOL to all with whatever you choose to play.

 

[babyfacedassassin]

Agree with most of your posts...

I think that Italy is superior, but they will sit on a lead. Can the US finish??? Who knows.. Reyna has not socred in WAY to many US CAPS, Donovan is tentative... They have no natural scorer except Eddie Johnson, and possibly Landon, but they are too defensive and passive to attack the goal..
Good analysis overall bro,...

The Czech republic....I think they cover the 0.5 spread, but the African teams have played inspired. There is nothing like letting loose and knowing that every risk you take will either be a great gamble that "could have been" or a great tackle for possesion. We saw that in the Angola game... Even with the nut-hugger John Stockton shorts, the Angolans played aggressive, insipired ball. They have nothing to lose. Matter of fact...their Striker and Keeper (player of match in my mind) are unemployed, and do not even have club teams. This tourney is like March Madness, Anyone at this level can tie at the least and for a longshot, beat any team out there. If you plug 10-11 guys behind the ball, make a defensive stance, and hope for a quick counter...it is hard to score, even if you are Brazil v. Decatur, IL.. That is just football. I would take the Asian handicap and expect the win, and hope for the push to stay alive for another day...but that is just me.

The Sensei has guided me to a 10-2-1 cup record, and has tomorrow's play ready. As a former Stopper for D-I ball, I feel his analysis is spot on and feel that you are mentally in the same place. Best of luck, and let's fucking go US......otherwise the fact that my bro is in Iraq and that I ever played soccer are a waste....

Peace
'Face

 

[2white]

ITALY ALL THE WAY, ...THROUGH THE END:
CHAMPIONS OF THE WORLD !!!

Life's 2 short not to be italian !!!:money:

 

[chriscol]

it was a good day to rest yesterday and just enjoy the games.

Sunday

Croatia- Japan: Croatia -1 @ 2.06, TEAM TOTAL Croatia over 1,1.5 @ 1.73

Croatia the better team here. they were unlucky not to get a point against Brazil and need the win today to be on course to advance from that group. Japan was lucky to score at all against Australia and the way they lost should be a big mental blow for them.

2-team parlay Brazil to win (1.25) and Croatia to win (1.606) @ a combined 2.00

Brazil will win as they should be a bit more motivated today after all the critics they received after 1st game. but will they cover against a physically strong australia, which should be highly motivated after their win. i dont know. not many blow outs so far in the WC and probably also not here. so i just go with a straight parlay with croatia

France- Korea: Korea +1.5 @ 1.833

France played bad as i expected it. they have not scored in a WC since 8 years now. Henry is not in his usual form and the team is struggeling overall. Korea is maybe not as strong as in their home WC, but the come from behind win has shown they still capable of fighting and grinding it out. this should be enough to keep it close against france.

BOL to all

 

[wannabewhale]

Tough loss with Croatia. Missing that Pk was the start of it. They pressed at the end--but seemed kind of lazy to me.
I was all over SK +1.5. Hell France hadn't even scored a goal in how long. Also had the under.
Thanks for your analysis-I look forward to it each day. I am starting to form opinions after seeing just about every team now--glad to see some match yours.
GL Monday Go ESP!!!

 

[chriscol]

was not around yesterday as i had tickets for the togo-swiss game. just some comments to this game as sometimes you get a better feel and see thing different when you are actually in the stadium.
The swiss team is a very solid team on defense, but they are lacking real fire power. they will go to next round and will be definetely tough for any team to beat t hem, but they will not make it deep in the tourney. Another amazing thing is that it seemed to be the whole of Swizerland in the stadium. if they are playing any other team than Germany they have definetely a home game.
Togo impressed me. they are better than ithought or should i say faster.
They a relatively solid on defense, which will make it tough for an uninspired french team to score. There passing is OK, but when it comes to the box and scoring there is NOTHING. Not one player has a clue what to do with the ball when coming close to the goal.
These guys are fast and looked sometimes to me like an athletic team. They will run for 90 min, but they are not dangerous at all. No chance they score against France, but i will be a sweater for the french to score the 2 goals they probably need.

now to tuesday games

Germany- Ecuador: Germany -1 @ 2.0

Although both team are already qualified it s especially for germany important to win and finish 1st in group. they want to keep the momentum and the high they get from the fans + a 1st place for lead in theory to game to games in Munich, Berlin and Dortmund (same locations as in group matches) and thats the road they want to go. They will not rest any players due to yellow card situation.
Ecuador is solid so far, but i dont think they can stand the 90 min pressure of germany.

Poland- Costa Rica: Under 2.5 @ 1.943 and poland -0.5 @ 1.80

Nothing to play for for both teams, but still... costa rica is plain awful and poland should at least show some pride with all the polish supporters following them in germany. They should be the better team and win, even if they are disappointed and not 100 % motivated. The under is mainly a bet on costa rica not to score as i dont expect poland go for 3 in this situation. the total is the stronger play of both.

Trinidad - Paraguay: Under 2.5 @ 1.833

Trinidad still with a chance (if winning and sweden loosing), but how should they do it. they have trouble scoring. they are doing a good job in defending, but that s it. Paraguay is already out, but might do something for pride (but i am not sure). as they are very solid on def and lacked offensive power the under is the best play here IMO. not many results will loose this bet...3-0 or a 2-1 and i dont think we will see a blow out or a T&T goal.

England- Sweden: Sweden pk,+0.5 @ 1.833 !! 2 units!!

i am not on a good streak with my big plays, but this will break it.
Obvious choice here.
historically sweden own england. England cannot remember when they beat sweden the last time ( i think it s 50 or 60 years ago) and they play often against each other in europe. Sweden need at least a point, while england is qualified. Both teams are struggeling scoring big time so far.
England seems to rest Gerrald and Crouch due to danger of yellow card suspension...how will they score? i dont know.they are also saying they dont care if they are playing germany or ecuador in next round.
ibrahimovic is also out for sweden, but i expect them to be much more focused and motivated than england. even a very likely draw will give me a winner here, but i see good chances for sweden to win it in a low scoring affair.

BOL to all

 

[chriscol]

sorry for some typing and spelling errors in above post (i just read it, it s bad)..it s late here in germany and i am watching the hockey game, while doing this.

 

[BigDane]

Costa Rica - Ecuador Under 2.5 I dont think so, its going to be full of goals. For the simple reason that Costa Rica is weak and they are playing with their bench mainly, but I sure hope you win.

 

[Mindware]

Sweden = :money8: GL Chrisol

 

[tbonestk]

Costa Rica has no defense. They gave up 7 goals in the last 2 games. Poland has good defense, but hadn't scored yet. I think Poland will get at least a goal, and keep Costa Rica off the board.

 

[chriscol]

just shortly my picks for today..no time for write ups

Ivory Coast- S&M: Ivory coast pk,-0.5 @ 1.833 and over 2,2.5 @ 1.90

Pride for a good african team will win.

Argentina- Holland: ARgentina pk,-0.5 @ 1.82

Mexico- Portugal: Mexico pk,+0.5 @ 1.86

open match, so i take the plus

BOL to all, i am heading to munich now watching the ivory.

 

[chriscol]

i ve seen a great match from ivory coast and it was especially great with some money on it...
after a solid day, now to thursday

Italy- Czech: Italy pk,-0.5 @ 1.78

i believe strongly in the italians. they were in a strange situation against usa. after first sent off they made substitutions to play more defense (the normal italian way) and after the 2 usa red cards they had no options left for attacking. that leaves them with the situation still to require a point. the czech showed big problems copeing with the injuries of koller and baros. baros might play today, but he is not 100 %. italy will go through IMO and therefore the play has to be italy..hopefully not a draw here.

Ghana- USA: over 2,2.5 @ 1.901 !! 2 units!!

to be independant from the other game, both teams have to win. USA anyway and Ghana is out if the draw and chez/italy is draw. so i expect both teams to play offensively and lot s of open spaces once a team takes the lead. on the side i think it is a coin toss, therefore no play.

Australia- Croatia: Australia pk,+0.5 @ 1.86

i dont see much between the teams. croatia is struggeling to score and it might be the same here against a physically very strong australia. this will be a hard fought, close game with hopefully australia prevailing.

Brazil- Japan: Brazil -1.5 @ 2.01

risky to play brazil with this line as they are already qualified, but htey will try again to show something. japan is already out.

BOL to all