WC from Germany

[chriscol]

so enough of analyse all the teams...let the fun begin. i ll keep this thread for the whole WC.
First of all i ll give some opinions on teams and factors that point out to me.
I ll also give some props for the whole tourney.
But the main part will be as usual the match-picks.
I ll keep track as i do thru the domestic season:
All picks for 1 unit or the big plays for 2 units (which will be mentioned).

here e go:

Outlook on what i expect from some teams:

-Costa Rica is one of the weakest teams in the WC. Probably togeter with TOGO, T&T and S.Arabia.

- England and sweden should advance from group B. Sweden got unusual problems on defense this year, which should prevend them from going too deep in the KO. Not sure how England will react to the rooney situation. Remember Sweden owns England as long as football is played. If England advances as 1st they might be up for a good draw to advance, but i ll be careful as they always find a win to go out in a dramatic way.

-Group C(ARG;NED;IC;S&M): i expect this groop to be very, very low scoring. Although the dutch seem to be mostly dangerous on offense all team are very solid on defense ,especially Ivory coast and S&M

-Same for Group E (ITA, USA, GHANA, CZE). This group is the mother of defensive play. I doubt to see more than 10-12 goals in total.
I dont expect ITA so much distracted by the scandal as everybody thinks. they are still solid and maybe extra motivated.
CZE is overrated IMO and they have injury problems with key players (rosidsky, koller)
USA could be the surprise in this group and advance.
Ghana is the most solid defense team in africa. very european style of game (defense first). could be the spoiler for some of the top teams as they will be tough to beat.

- Spain is way better than everybody thinks. Problem is they historically underachive in big tourney, but maybe this year (for sure 1st in group H).
- Ukraine is way overrated. They are relying on Sewtchenko only. Tunesia could be dangerous for them.

- France and swiss will advance from group G, but for me it s an open race as the qualification has shown.

 

[chriscol]

Tourney props

Costa Rica under 2 pts @ 2.04
Sweden over 5.5 pts @ 1.89
Swiss over 5 pts @ 1.87
Sweden over 6 goals in total @ 1.862
Mex over 6 goals in total @ 2.05
Swiss over 4 goals @ 1.704
Spain to advance further the Port @ 1.71
Both group winners : Germany and Brazil @ 1.752
Germany and Spain @ 2.33

 

[chriscol]

Plays for friday

Germany- CR: Germany -1.5 @ 1.83 !!2 units!!

This game stands out to me since i saw a line and it looks even better the closer we get.
Complete mismatch here, even on neutral ground. The home advantage will carry the young german team to a big win in the opener. CR played terrible in the late friendlies. While this might have a fluke it was definetely nothing to build confidence on. They also have big injury trouble.
The fact that Ballack seems to be out, might even play to germany's favour. as the everybody will be extra motivated. the young players cannot just sit back and let ballack win. they have to fight themselves. and as shown in the test matches, germany is very,very dangerous on offense. the weak spot is defense, but i dont CR can threaten that.

Polen- Ecuador: Poland -0.5 @ 2.07

Not quite sure here, but Poland seems to win games against similar opposition. Ecuador is overrated because of their qualification results. But now they are not playing on 3000m. A lot of polish supporters expected here in germany. thsi will turn out to be a home game for them.

BOL to all

 

[Mindware]

Chrisol, nice writeup. I don't follow soccer too much but I DO try to watch every game I can when it's time for the WC. With that said, I need some action:thumbsup2: on tomorrow's 1st game. What do you think of Germany 1st half ML? Thanks and GL my friend.

 

[chriscol]

normally i would say dont play 1st halfs..it s far too difficult to win a soccer game in 90 min. you cant rely on a team to go for it already in the first half.
for tomorrows game there should be still a good chance. the factor that goes against it is the opening game as both teams might be a bit careful in first minutes.
if you go for it you should play a HT/FT-bet, which means germany leads at half and wins. that gives you much better value and is the same bet IMO.

 

[winbet]

Polen- Ecuador: Poland -0.5 @ 2.07

Chriscol,
Why dont you take the 2.12 Poland outright on Betfair?

 

[Duckstabber]

Good luck, Chris! To you and Germany! :toast:

 

[quantumleap]

Good luck chris! I'm on the Germany -1.5 over CR as well.

I'm also rooting on Deutschland to win the Cup.

Deutschland, Deutschland über alles,
Über alles in der Welt,
Wenn es stets zu Schutz und Trutze
Brüderlich zusammenhält.
Von der Maas bis an die Memel,
Von der Etsch bis an den Belt,
|: Deutschland, Deutschland über alles,
Über alles in der Welt! :|

 

[jwunderdog]

Do you really like Germany's chances in this tourney, or just the first round? Most of what I have read elsewhere hasn't been real positive when it comes to Germany's chances.

Thanks

 

[DonMelchor]

Costa RIca can easily win a game against poland and/or Ecuador, BOL, don't agree on a few points.

 

[chriscol]

winbet: dont have an account there, so i stick with what i am playing

Thx DUck, BOL also to you..it will be a great party.

Quantum: :toast:

Octor: it s just what i am looking for, but after seeing everyone once we will all have a much clearer picture.

 

[DonMelchor]

 

[Bennyshoe]

Will Ballack play for Germany? I heard first that he was going to miss the game but then today I read he declared himself ready for the game. Now that doesn't mean he'll play but he's saying he's ready.

W/O Ballack it's a different German team IMO

 

[achandicap]

Just saw on ESPN GameCast that Costa Rica is starting just one man up front and will play a very defensive-minded game.

 

[Zeppelin]

Germany will prevail :grandmais :drink: :anichamp4 :Guitarman k:

 

[quantumleap]

Plays for friday

Germany- CR: Germany -1.5 @ 1.83 !!2 units!!

This game stands out to me since i saw a line and it looks even better the closer we get.
Complete mismatch here, even on neutral ground. The home advantage will carry the young german team to a big win in the opener. CR played terrible in the late friendlies. While this might have a fluke it was definetely nothing to build confidence on. They also have big injury trouble.
The fact that Ballack seems to be out, might even play to germany's favour. as the everybody will be extra motivated. the young players cannot just sit back and let ballack win. they have to fight themselves. and as shown in the test matches, germany is very,very dangerous on offense. the weak spot is defense, but i dont CR can threaten that.

WINNER!!

:toast:

Ein zwei drei vier
Lift your stein and drink your beer
Ein zwei drei vier
Lift your stein and drink your beer

Drink! Drink! Drink!
To eyes that are bright as stars when they're shining on me!
Drink! Drink! Drink!
To lips that are red and sweet as the fruit on the tree!

 

[chriscol]

rec 1-1 +0.62 units

i must admit i capped the poland game yeaterday completely wrong, but that happens.

Saturday

Sweden- T& T: Sweden 1.5 @ 1.78 !! 2 units!!

It s very similar to the german-match yesterday. A complete mismatch. as it might be very important to finish first in the group to play 2nd of group A the goal differrence could be very important (with a england/sweden draw very possible). Sso sweden will play very offensively.
T&T got one of their most experience players on defense injured, which will also not help them.

Argentina- Ivory Coast: Ivory Coast +1 @1.80 and under 2,2.5 goals @ 1.935

I saw a lot of Argentine supportors here in Hamburg already yesterday night. i tell you they are big fun ( and some pretty girls), but will the team win? i am not sure. Ivory Coast is probably the strongest african team. They are capable of scoring, but also well organised on defense. I am not sure if they are able to get a draw, but i expect a very close game. So i like the +1. Even if Arg is winning i dont expect it to be in a blow.
As it is a very,very important match for both i also expect both teams to start a bit slower and see what the opposition do. together with both team's defensive capability i expect it low scoring.

For interest: England should win, but i got a funny feeling it could be close after already one South America team surprised yesterday.

I ll go into town now to look for more ARG supporters and get caught in the atmosphere.

Enjoy the games and BOL to all

 

[chriscol]

rec 1-3 -2.38 units (pushes rec as no play)

Sunday:

Mexiko- Iran: Mexiko -0.5,-1 @ 2.00 and over 2,2.5 @1.962

Mexico should be the better team, but Iran is somewhat of an unknown factor. I see in Mexico a very good offensive team, but usually they have some problems on defense. Iran is not bad as a lot of players (especially on offense) play in europe, but i dont expect them to have a chance to advance. Mexico should win in what should be a pretty offensive match.

Portugal- Angola: over 2.5 @ 2.00

This will be a tough match up..history will play a big role as Angola is a former colony of Portugal. there will be a lot of bad temper involved. last game they played was a friendly 2001, which had to be suspended afteer 60 min after Angola was down to 6 !!! me after red cards and injuries.
Therefore i am not convinced Portugal will win this in a blow out as it is the match of the tourney for angola. But the over looks good to me in this constellation. Both teams will not hold back and go for each other which shoud give us 3 goals one way or the other.

Holland - S&M: No play

close game with extra pressure on both teams after the performance of arg and Ivory yesterday. S&M is very strong on defense and could be very tough to beat for the dutch if they can hold a 0-0 for first 30 min. this will be fun to watch, but probably low scoring as the linesmaker has predicted it.

BOL to all

 

[chriscol]

positive day yesterday with he Mexico game

rec now 3-4 -1.418 (pushes rec as no play)

here the plays for monday:
Usa- Czech: Usa +0.5 @ 1.935 and under 2,2.5 @ 1.833

I dont see the czech has that superior as many think. Rosidsky and Koller are coming of injuries. The US team is usually tough to beat, cause tey are good on defense. That combined with being the opening match for both teams and a very critical match (as the looser is already in trouble,with italy the fav to go thru) i expect a safety first approach from both teams. low scoring with a possible draw for the US.

Italy- Ghana: under 2,2.5 @ 1.80
Same here Ghana is a very solid,european style team. Italy will have a tough time to score here. Scoring against italy is always tough, so i expect again a low scoring game here. I was thinking about italy as side but -0.5,-1 is too much for me right now. they have some injured players and although i am thinking the performance willnot be down due to the scandal at home, i would like to see the team playing once.

Australia- Japan: No play

Japan was surprisingly quick in a friendly in germany two weeks ago, but i am not sold on their ability to score. Australia is a question mark for me. they seem to be physically strong, which should be an advantage against japan... but i ll just enjoy the game and learn for the next games of both teams.

BOL to all


BTW..i just got tickets for Ivory coast vs. Serbia&Mont. i am a very,very happy camper right now :toast: ope:

 

[wannabewhale]

I enjoy reading your writeups--keep'em coming.
How much are tickets going for there for good matches?? two lesser teams??

Enjoy