Agreed. Very interesting. I'm probably in the minority, but I think a trial is just as likely as a settlement. I think a lot of people are expecting JPM to just roll over on this, but I don't see that happening. They may very well believe they can win this case if it goes to trial. I'm not saying they WOULD win, but I wouldn't be surprised if they thought they could.
Agreed. Very interesting. I'm probably in the minority, but I think a trial is just as likely as a settlement. I think a lot of people are expecting JPM to just roll over on this, but I don't see that happening. They may very well believe they can win this case if it goes to trial. I'm not saying they WOULD win, but I wouldn't be surprised if they thought they could.
Haha Kuwl, love the popcorn icon. Yeah Peter, I can't blame your thinking on this one bud. Tough to really say what JPM is thinking here. I really think it is more of the FDIC that is holding up the settlement negotiations rather than JPM. I really think they had a settlement set, and the judge stepped in because it did not involve the common shareholders. That is the reason why the US Trustee requested the formation of the EC, and then approved by the Judge. It would be smart for JPM to settle now before it gets real crazy during the trial, where they can face triple damages with RICO Law as well as more lawyer fees. I think both parties will hedge there bets and take a middle ground settlement of $15-$20 per share. If they settle now, I still think they are getting a good deal for WAMU.
Hey guys, new here... I've been playing the WAMUQ stocks since they were down in the $0.05 range. I don't do a lot of trading but I thought this would be a good chance to make some money.
How plausible is it that these shares will end up in the $15-$20 range? I mean, is that just wishful thinking?
How plausible is it that these shares will end up in the $15-$20 range? I mean, is that just wishful thinking?
Well... we all have the same amount of publicly available information. So it's kind of anybody's guess. I'd say that the odds are maybe 10% in a settlement and 15% in a trial. Figure that once we clear assets > liabilities and all preferreds are paid in full, the common stock would be worth $1 for every $1.7BILLION more that JPMorgan forks over.
The odds are better than any casino will spread but this is by no means a slam dunk.
The good news is the UST forming an equity committee trying to get us some money. If you want me to pull another number out of my ass based solely on 16 months of watching this stock daily, I'd say there's maybe a 40% chance we get at least $3. But I've always figured the market prices in the risks so that could be way too high.
Good luck, whichever path you choose. These are all obviously just my opinions.
Absolutely. The EC being formed and approved was huge for the common shareholders. And you're right, the FDIC is playing a big part in this. It would make a lot of sense for JPM to keep this out of trial. However, if they think the settlement figure is too much, I would be surprised if it doesn't go to trial. There's probably stuff that they don't want to come out in trial, sure, but you can bet they will have an answer for everything WAMU's lawyers accuses them of.
The one thing I find particularly interesting about this case is that almost all WAMU shareholders look at the case and say 'JPM did wrong, so obviously they will lose and have to pay out the nose.' I hope that's the case, and it would be great if they did, but I think it's rarely that easy. The trial, if it ever happens, could hinge mainly on the effectiveness of JPM's lawyers more than anything, IMO.
That is a very true observation. If this plan has been going on for as many years as speculated, they had a looong time to carefully cover tracks. Anyone that takes on JPMorgan is a longshot underdog. So taking on JPMorgan AND the government simultaneously... I don't know why I even bother to bet money on this.
I'm still furious about how misled I was as an investor before the seizure. I remember reading the September press report where the office of thrift supervision SAID they were well-capitalized THROUGH 2008. I doubled down my investment that day and was wiped out a few days later.
So does anyone have a better understanding of what that WAHUQ document from the other day was saying?
Agreed. A few months ago I bought a small amount of the stock, but I ended up selling just a few weeks later. Admittedly, I probably didn't do enough DD when I first purchased, which is always dumb. At any rate, I agree with you that WAMU has to be looked at as a big underdog in this case. Maybe I'm too cynical, but I've said from the beginning I wouldn't be surprised to see WAMU get screwed on this one.
Having said all that, I genuinely hope WAMU can prevail. A lot of good people have gotten the shaft on this and I would like nothing more than to see them get retribution.
My humble take on the present state of affairs for WAMUQ is that if and when the SJ on the $4B is either immediately granted (or is affirmatively ruled on in a brief trial in the Bk court) AND a Monthly Operating Report shows the receipt of the first tranch of NOLs, THEN the stock TAKES OFF ... so much so that it might not be that worthwhile to try and acquire more shares.
Frankly, I am hoping that the judge reserves (i.e., puts off) ruling on the SJ this Friday, thereby giving me a few more weeks to accumulate. Also, it's my understanding that the NOLs won't be reflected in an MOR for another 30 to 60 days. THAT would be swell, and the absence of such good news would stabilize the PPS, again giving me more time to accumulate; all this as we move to the end of the 'exclusivity period', or March 28th.
So I'm figuring that I've got until March 21st or so to end my accumulation, as by that time this stock will have had every piece of good news it needs for the general market to catch on and dive in.
Jah guide
Bob Marley
Frankly, I am hoping that the judge reserves (i.e., puts off) ruling on the SJ this Friday, thereby giving me a few more weeks to accumulate. Also, it's my understanding that the NOLs won't be reflected in an MOR for another 30 to 60 days. THAT would be swell, and the absence of such good news would stabilize the PPS, again giving me more time to accumulate; all this as we move to the end of the 'exclusivity period', or March 28th.
So I'm figuring that I've got until March 21st or so to end my accumulation, as by that time this stock will have had every piece of good news it needs for the general market to catch on and dive in.
Jah guide
Bob Marley
02/04 at 1:45pm. Market's down 227 points. JPM's down. Even the Lehman stocks are down. But WAMUQ's found solid support at .21. I really don't think the stock is going to go much lower than that. Not even a suspended ruling tomorrow in the BK court is going to do that. IMO, a lot of people are now watching it, and have made a positive determination about it.
Jah Guide.
Jah Guide.
I agree that if WAMU wins the $4B SJ ruling, there's a good chance the stock will take off. You never know with this stock though. The MMs like to keep it down, but maybe they won't be able to if they win the SJ. Conversely, if they don't get the $4B, I wouldn't be surprised to see the price tank.
Personally, I highly doubt there will be a ruling tomorrow. Given that there's $4B on the line, I think she will take some more time. They love delays with this case, so I think there will be at least one more before she rules.
Personally, I highly doubt there will be a ruling tomorrow. Given that there's $4B on the line, I think she will take some more time. They love delays with this case, so I think there will be at least one more before she rules.
I don't know if I agree that "the judge is going to take more time to rule on the SJ". If she was going to rule against it, then why permit the forming of the EC (which I didn't think she would rule on from the bench, the way she did)? IMO, she delayed ruling on it as she became more convinced that common just might be in the money, and therefore deserving of a seat at the table. I don't think that happened for her until it was learned that the NOLs would double (which probably also spurred the Trustee into action (that and the "exigent circumstances" of an impending settlement). Think about it ... common tried twice to get an EC during the course of the BK, and was denied each time. So why 'ok' on the 3rd attempt? IMO, because 'end-game' decisions are going to be made now; decisions that will enforce the need for a speedy settlement at this juncture. It's going to be about settling the CASE, as opposed to one small facet of it (i.e., the SJ issue).
As I've said before, I'd like her to delay the ruling, or even rack it up for a trial. I mean really, how can you rule on $4,000,000,000 and say that there are no "material facts" involved in the dispute?
Jah Guide
Bob Marley
As I've said before, I'd like her to delay the ruling, or even rack it up for a trial. I mean really, how can you rule on $4,000,000,000 and say that there are no "material facts" involved in the dispute?
Jah Guide
Bob Marley
You could be right. I guess I don't view allowing the EC as "tipping her hand" that she is going to rule in their favor, or that settlement is imminent. She is allowing commons to be represented, sure, but that is just one small victory for the shareholders. Things could just as easily go against WAMU as they could go in their favor, in my opinion.
I honestly don't know why the EC was denied the first two times, to be honest. There are a lot of things about this case that don't make sense to me. And my stating that there would probably be another delay was based mainly on past events. There have been quite a few times that it looked like she was going to rule, but didn't. I guess at this point I'm just skeptical of any real progress being made in the case, short-term. The EC approval was definitely a good start, but I'm not at all convinced that there will be a swift resolution to the case.
I honestly don't know why the EC was denied the first two times, to be honest. There are a lot of things about this case that don't make sense to me. And my stating that there would probably be another delay was based mainly on past events. There have been quite a few times that it looked like she was going to rule, but didn't. I guess at this point I'm just skeptical of any real progress being made in the case, short-term. The EC approval was definitely a good start, but I'm not at all convinced that there will be a swift resolution to the case.
So, What are people's thoughts on the hearings today?
It seemed as if Judge Walrath was ready to rule the $4B ours.. But allowing the trial to be delayed another month means basically one thing to me: Time to talk settlement. I consider this a good day, I just doubled my shares @ 0.192.
Let's hear other people's take on today.
It seemed as if Judge Walrath was ready to rule the $4B ours.. But allowing the trial to be delayed another month means basically one thing to me: Time to talk settlement. I consider this a good day, I just doubled my shares @ 0.192.
Let's hear other people's take on today.
I don't think it's a big surprise that it was delayed again. In fact, I would venture to guess it will be delayed a few more times after this. I think the share price dropping today is either people getting frustrated by the wait, or people viewing the delay as a negative against WAMU. I don't view it as a negative at all, but I'm sure JPM loves all these delays. It just gives them more time to build their case.
Today was positive IMO. Judge is giving them time to settle out of court. I have to go back and listen to some audio clips, but I read a few postings from folks that were listening to the hearing.
Anyway, I didnt buy on the dip this morning, although now i wish I wouldve as it wouldve been an easy 10-15% flip.
It's getting closer though, FDIC is gonna have to fork over some moolah and JPM will front us WaMuers some stock.
