Tuesday's Diamond Notes
August 1, 2017
By Joe Williams
VegasInsider.com
Hottest team: Dodgers (8-2 past 10 games, 47-11 past 58 overall)
The rich certainly got a lot richer at the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, as the red-hot Dodgers picked up Yu Darvish to strengthen the starting rotation, as well as Tony Cingrani and Tony Watson to bolster their bullpen. The way the league's top team has been going, it's hard to see why they need to fix what isn't broken. They have won 47 of their past 58 games, they're 10-1 over their past 11 road games against a team with a losing record, 18-6 in the past 24 away from home overall and 4-1 in their past five road games vs. RHP. They're also 40-14 in their past 54 overall against righties. L.A. turns to Kenta Maeda, as they're 10-2 over their past 12 starts and 4-1 over his past five outings against a losing team.
Coldest team: Rays (0-4 past four games, 3-9 past 12 overall)
The Rays were sitting pretty in the American League East on July 18 after a win in Oakland, within striking distance of the Red Sox and Yankees. They appeared to be right in the mix for a postseason spot, but it's been a slow burn since. They're just 3-9 over their past 12 games, including a 14-7 beating in Houston that showed how far away from the contenders that they really are. Tampa Bay is anything but done, still just 4 1/2 games off the pace in the AL East. However, to be serious contenders they'll have to win on the road. They have just one win over the past six on the road, and they're 1-7 over the past eight vs. RHP and 0-5 in their past five against the AL West.
Hottest pitcher:
Chris Sale, Red Sox (13-4, 2.73 ERA)
The Red Sox turn to Sale to keep things rolling in the right direction in their showdown series against the Indians. Boston won the opener on Monday by a 6-2 count, and now Sale faces a team he knows all too well. He hasn't faced Cleveland yet in 2017, but he is 3-3 with a 3.38 ERA in nine starts over 53 1/3 innings against the Indians since the start of the 2014 season. He faced the Tribe frequently as a member of the Chicago White Sox. The All-Star wrapped up his best month of the season, going 3-1 with a 1.04 ERA in five July outings, as the opposition mustered just a .167 average against him across 34 2/3 innings over five starts.
Coldest pitcher:
Ricky Nolasco, Angels (4-12, 5.07 ERA)
The team's Opening Day starter was sharp last time out, posting a quality start in a loss in Cleveland on July 26. Still, he finished 1-3 with a 5.72 ERA across 28 1/3 innings over five July outings, serving up four homers. It was his third consecutive losing month, and his second-worst month from an ERA perspective. Nolasco has allowed a league-high 27 homer, tied with Masahiro Tanaka of the Yankees. The good news for Nolasco is that Tuesday's opponent, the Philadelphia Phillies, rank 27th in the majors in home runs with just 109 through 103 games.
Biggest UNDER run:
Cubs (4-0 past four overall)
The 'under' is a popular play when Jon Lester takes the ball for the Cubbies. The total has gone under in six of Lester's past eight assignments while going an impressive 19-7 over his past 26 starts at Wrigley Field. The ounder is also 18-7-1 across his past 26 at home against teams with a winning overall mark. Against the NL West, the under is even more prominent for the Cubs, going36-15-3 over their past 54 games. One thing that might worry under bettors has been Chicago's success against southpaws at the Friendly Confines. The over is 6-1-2 over the past nine home games vs. LHP. However, the under is 5-1 over their past six meetings with the Diamondbacks and 4-1 in their past five meetings at Wrigley.
Biggest OVER run:
Astros (20-7-1 past 28 games)
The Astros have been an 'over' machine all season, and they are the only team in the league with more than 576 runs scored (623). Houston is averaging 5.93 runs per game while swatting a major-league best 172 homers. They also lead the majors with a .503 slugging percentage. The 'over' has hit in eight of their past 10 games on grass, 4-0 across their past four outings vs. RHP, and 24-7-1 in their past 32 games against the American League East. Mike Fiers hits the mound at Minute Maid against the Rays, and the over is 4-1-1 across his past six while going 7-1-1 in his past nine assignments against AL East foes. The over has cashed in four straight, including Monday's 14-7 series opening win by the 'Stros, as well as seven consecutive meetings overall.
Matchup to watch:
Padres vs. Twins
When interleague league started many years ago, Mets-Yankees, Angels-Dodgers, Cubs-White Sox, Giants-Athletics were matchups that were highly anticipated, and are still special today. However, interleague play also gives us games like the Twins-Padres. Minnesota was a contender for much of the season, but July treated them very rudely. They're just 1-6 over their past seven outings, and 0-4 in their past four tries against the NL West. They have also dropped four straight road games by Jose Berrios. And if you think an off day will help them, think again. They're 2-7 across their past nine following a day off. The Padres are buried in the NL West, but they keep fighting. San Diego has won four of their past five, they're 4-1 in their past five at Petco Park and they're 5-1 across the past six outings at home by Jhoulys Chacin. They're also 5-0 in his past five starts overall.
Betcha didn’t know: The A's may have thrown the towel in by dealing Sonny Gray to the Yankees at the deadline, but Sean Manaea appears to be next in line to serve as the franchise's ace. He is 8-5 with a 3.82 ERA overall this season, and he has lost just two of his past 13 outings with seven victories during the stretch. He has faced San Francisco just once so far in his fledgling career, posting 5 2/3 scoreless innings last June against the Giants. San Francisco has won just twice over its past nine tries on the road against a left-handed starter, and they're 18-40 over their past 58 games on the road overall. The A's are the complete opposite lately, winning eight of their past nine at home vs. RHP while picking up wins in five of Manaea's past seven home outings.
Biggest public favorite:
Blue Jays (-200) at White Sox
Biggest public underdog:
Twins (+105) at Padres
Biggest line move:
Brewers (+105 to -120) vs. Cardinals