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Preview: Red Sox at Giants

Current Conditions - San Francisco

CLOUDY 57 °F
Wind: W 3
5-Day Forecast
GAME: Boston Red Sox (33-24) at San Francisco Giants (35-24)
DATE/TIME: Tuesday, June 07 - 10:15 PM EST
WHERE: AT&T Park, San Francisco, California
LINE: N/A TOTAL: N/A

The red-hot San Francisco Giants had won 18 of 22 contests before being cooled off after a pair of late leads went by the boards in their last two games. The National League West-leading Giants look to avoid their fourth losing skid of at least three contests on Tuesday when they begin an abbreviated two-game interleague series versus the visiting Boston Red Sox.

Leadoff hitter Denard Span collected four hits, two RBIs and two runs scored in the three-game series versus St. Louis and is 11-for-29 (.379) versus Tuesday starter Rick Porcello. While pitching traditionally has been the calling card of San Francisco, Boston has endured some tough performances from its hurlers of late as the club has surrendered 39 runs en route to losing four of five outings in June. Chris Young homered to derail Marco Estrada's no-hit bid in Sunday's 5-4 setback to American League East rival Toronto. "Any opportunity I get to play, I'm happy about it and try to take full advantage of it," said the 32-year-old Young, who has been shuffled into action with fellow outfielders Blake Swihart and Brock Holt on the disabled list.

TV: 10:15 p.m. ET, MLB Network, NESN (Boston), CSN Bay Area (San Francisco)

PITCHING MATCHUP: Red Sox RH Rick Porcello (7-2, 4.00 ERA) vs. Giants RH Albert Suarez (1-1, 3.18)

Porcello has hit a rough patch of late, surrendering at least four runs in three of his last four outings. The 27-year-old sinkerballer surrendered three homers and five runs total in six innings of a no-decision versus Baltimore on Thursday. Porcello looks to get back on track versus San Francisco, against which he was shredded for six runs on 10 hits in three innings in his last encounter.

Suarez received mixed reviews in his first major-league start on Wednesday as the 26-year-old Venezuelan filled in for the injured Matt Cain (hamstring). Suarez settled for a no-decision against Atlanta after allowing three runs on as many hits in five innings. Suarez has yet to permit a homer in 17 frames this season and has not allowed a run in seven innings at home.

WALK-OFFS

1. Boston's David Ortiz is riding a 13-game hitting streak, but his sore left foot may put his availability in question should he play at first base on Tuesday.

2. Giants C Buster Posey is just 2-for-23 with five strikeouts in his last six contests.

3. Red Sox 2B Dustin Pedroia carries a 13-game hitting streak into San Francisco, against which he is 10-for-26 (.385) with one homer and six RBIs in his seven career games.

PREDICTION: Giants 3, Red Sox 2

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Stephen Nover

St Louis at Cincinnati
Play: St Louis -156

I really don't need an excuse to fade the Reds, but with the opening line dropping I have another good reason to back the road favorite Cardinals.

St. Louis starter Mike Leake is in excellent form - a 1.59 ERA in his last five starts - and should be extra pumped pitching against his former team. Leake is experienced pitching at hitter-friendly Great American Ball Park having made 85 career starts for the Reds. This is his first start there as a visitor.

The Cardinals have dominated Cincinnati winning 19 of the past 24 times during the last two years, including going 6-1 in the last seven meetings. St. Louis is 15-6 in its last 21 road games versus sub .500 opponents. The Reds have dropped seven of their last nine home games.

St. Louis' lineup is better now as shortstop Jhonny Peralta is expected to be activated from the disabled list today. He's been out all season after injuring his thumb during spring training.

Peralta's return strengthens the Cardinals at three infield spots because it gets disappointing Kolten Wong out of the starting lineup with Matt Carpenter moving from third base to second base.

The Reds have a bunch of junior varsity starting pitchers because of multiple injuries. Lefty John Lamb is one of those with a 5.58 ERA. He's allowed 17 earned runs in his past four starts spanning 20 2/3 innings. He's yielded 29 hits in his last four outings with as many walks allowed - nine - as strikeouts during this time frame. The Cardinals are 8-6 versus southpaws this season.

Cincinnati is 3-13 in Lamb's career starts. Making the Reds nearly an auto-fade is their brutal bullpen which has given up 145 earned runs and 43 homers in 200 1/3 innings for an ERA of 6.50.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

ASA

A's vs. Brewers
Play: A's +120

Zach Davies had a great outing for the Brewers in his most recent start but it's not like Davies has overpowering stuff nor was he "mowing hitters down" before that start. With that said, Milwaukee is overpriced here in our opinion. The Brewers are not a very good baseball team and they have gone 3-5 (-3.8.) this season and 28-36 (-21.4) the past three seasons as a home favorite of -125 to -150. The Brewers are averaging only 3 runs per game in their last 7 games and we'll struggle to score runs against Sean Manaea of the Athletics. The Oakland southpaw has a 3.00 ERA in his last two starts and looked particularly sharp in his most recent start when he struck out 8 in 6 innings of work. Oakland is 5-3 in their last 8 games and averaged 5 runs per game during this stretch. This is the A's first inter-league game of this season and they have gone a solid 24-16 in inter-league action the two prior seasons. Solid underdog value here absolutely worth a shot here with the underdog A's. We'll take the road team Oakland with the value on the money line Tuesday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Essler

Cincinnati +1.5 -110

Why wouldn't we back Leake back in the small park he knows well against a team that knows him even better and has just been white-hot at the plate. Lamb has been "better" as has the Reds pen the Cardinals pen hasn't I'll take a free run with a home team that can hit most every time.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

OSKEIM SPORTS

Tampa Bay at Arizona
Play: Arizona -160

Tampa Bay arrives in town with a scuffling offense that is averaging 4.2 runs per game this season (.241 AVG.; .303 OBP), including 3.8 runs per game versus right-handed starters (.229 AVG.; .291 OBP). The Rays now face a surging Zack Greinke, who is coming off a solid month of May wherein he posted a 3.82 ERA, 3.55 FIP and 3.30 xFIP . The talented right-hander displayed better control while also improving his strikeout percentage and home run rate.

While Greinke's 4.29 ERA and 1.23 WHIP doesn't inspire much confidence, his 3.34 FIP and 3.52 SIERA are more accurate indicators of how he has performed in 2016. Indeed, both his swinging strike rate and strikeouts are similar to prior years, as is his walk rate. A more encouraging sign is the fact that Greinke is getting batters to chase more pitches outside of the zone this season. The 32-year-old also toes the rubber in excellent form with a 2.14 ERA and 0.81 WHIP over his last three starts.

Meanwhile, Tampa Bay southpaw Matt Moore enters tonight with a 5.46 ERA and 1.51 WHIP, including a 6.33 ERA and 1.96 WHIP on the road and a 6.48 ERA and 1.92 WHIP over his last three outings. Moore owns a 4.80 FIP and 4.23 xFIP in 2016, together with a subpar 1.72 HR/9 rate. The lefty is also growing frustrated with the artificial pitch count placed on him by management, stating the following after his last outing: "It's baseball. This is not Little League with pitch counts or high school where they are trying to keep you healthy and things like that. This is the major leagues - it's time to go."

Moore posted a woeful 7.36 ERA, 5.93 FIP and 5.04 xFIP in the month of May and now facing an Arizona lineup batting .277 with a .433 SLG and .768 OPS versus left-handed starters. From a technical standpoint, Greinke's teams are 30-9 versus hitters who strikeout 7+ times per game and 94-36 as home favorites, including 63-17 as favorites priced at -150 or higher. The Rays are a money-burning 1-7 in Moore's last 8 starts, including 0-4 in his last four road outings. With Arizona standing at 7-3 in the last ten meetings in this series, including 4-1 in its last five at home, take the Diamondbacks and invest with confidence.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

OSKEIM SPORTS

Washington at Chicago
Play: Washington -125

Chicago right-hander Mat Latos' house of cards has finally started to crumble as the soft-tosser has yielded 23 earned runs on 45 hits in his last 31 2/3 innings of work. Latos owns a 5.06 ERA and 1.72 WHIP in five evening starts and a 4.08 ERA and 1.46 WHIP in five home starts in 2016. Latos' underlying metrics match the regression of his surface statistics: 5.29 FIP, 5.29 xFIP, 5.30 SIERA, 4.98 K/9, 3.38 BB/9, 1.45 HR/9 and a 4.1% K-BB%. In the month of May, the 28-year- old posted a woeful 6.41 ERA, 6.31 FIP and a 5.47 xFIP.

Meanwhile, Washington right-hander Joe Ross has been a pleasant surprise this season, garnering a 2.52 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over ten starts. Ross also owns a 1.80 ERA and 1.05 WHIP on the road, a 2.57 ERA and 1.09 WHIP at night and a 2.29 ERA and 1.11 WHIP over his last three outings. Ross toes the rubber knowing that first baseman Ryan Zimmerman has been reinstated from paternity leave and is expected to be back in the lineup tonight.

Technically speaking, the White Sox are a money-burning 5-16 in their last 21 games overall, including 2-7 in their last nine games versus teams with a winning record, 1-9 in their last ten versus right-handed starters and 1-8 in their last nine following a loss. In contrast, Washington is a profitable 39-19-1 in its last 58 games following a day off, 7-2 in its last nine games versus American League Central foes, 8-3 in its last 11 road games and 5-0 in its last five road games versus teams with a winning home record.

With Washington standing at 4-0 in the last four meetings in this series, take the Nationals and invest with confidence.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Larry Ness

Washington Nationals at Chicago White Sox
Pick: Washington Nationals

The White Sox have lost 18 of their past 24 to fall to 29-28, falling 3 1/2 games back of first-place in the AL Central. Chicago returns to U.S. Cellular Field on Tuesday to face the 34-23 Washington Nationals, who lead the National League East by two games over the New York Mets. "It is a tough stretch," Ventura said Sunday, after the Tigers swept Chicago in three games. "But there's nowhere to go but up. I think right now, you take this blow, and you've got to push back. You get a day off, and you go ahead and regroup."

This series opens a nine-game homestand for Chicago, which sends Mat Latos (6-1, 4.02 ERA) to the mound in tonight’s contest. Latos has a good W-L mark but he’s allowed at least four ERs in FOUR of his last six starts. However, he has enjoyed some success against the Nationals, going 4-2 with a 2.53 ERA in nine career starts (teams are a modest 5-4, though), striking out 48 in 53.1 innings. Latos may feel “under the gun” to produce a quality start, hoping to solidify his role in Chicago's rotation, as the White Sox just acquired veteran right-hander James Shields from the San Diego Padres on Saturday. That move bumped Latos to the role of fifth starter and moved fellow right-hander Miguel Gonzalez to the bullpen. If Latos' recent struggles continue, Ventura could opt to reinstate Gonzalez into the starting rotation.

Washington will counter with right-hander Joe Ross (5-4, 2.37 ERA). Ross is coming off back-to-back games in which he has limited opponents to one earned run over seven innings in each of the two. Ross has never faced the White Sox but the Nats are 7-2 against American League opponents this season, outscoring them 49-29. On a staff with high-profile starters Max Scherzer and Stephen Strasburg, Ross continues to distinguish himself with a string of consistent solid efforts. Yes, Ross has endured a four-start losing streak but he's permitted two ERs or less in EIGHT of 10 starts this season.

Expect his luck to turn, right here. As for Latos, the bullpen may be ‘calling!’

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Steve Janus

Royals vs. Orioles
Play: Royals +120

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ross Benjamin

Mets @ Pirates
Play: Mets

Steven Matz is a perfect 4-0 in his road team starts with an excellent 1.32 ERA and 0.95 WHIP. Matz has displayed terrific form over his last three starts, evidenced by his 0.82 WHIP during those outings. Since 2015, the Mets are 22-3 (.880) on Mondays and 66-29 (.695) when they’re -100 to -150 on the money line. Pittsburgh is a dismal 1-5 in its last 6 and 2-8 during their previous ten games. Take the Mets for a 5* money line wager.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jack Jones

Chicago Cubs -1.5 -118

The Chicago Cubs have been the best team in the majors by a wide margin this season. They are 40-16 overall and outscoring opponents by 2.5 runs per game on average. They are 18-8 on the road with an average margin of victory of 3.2 runs per game.

Kyle Hendricks is having a fine season in Chicago to keep up with what Jake Arrieta and Jon Lester are doing. He is 4-4 with a 2.70 ERA and 0.900 WHIP in 10 starts, including 2-1 with a 1.61 ERA and 0.672 WHIP in his last three. Hendricks is also 2-0 with a 2.30 ERA and 0.702 WHIP in two career starts against Philadelphia.

The Phillies have gone just 2-9 in their last 11 games overall with eight of those losses coming by 2 runs or more. Jerad Eickhoff is 2-8 with a 3.93 ERA and 1.236 WHIP in 11 starts this season for Philadelphia. He gave up 4 earned runs in 6 innings of a 1-4 loss at Chicago on May 28 this season. Hendricks pitched 9 innings of one-run ball to get the win in that contest.

Chicago is 35-21 against the run line (+14.1 Units) in all games this season. The Cubs are 14-5 against the run line (+9.6 Units) in road games in night games this season. Chicago is 17-5 against the run line (+12.5 Units) after having won 4 of their last 5 games this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jimmy Boyd

Rangers +107

Texas is showing exceptional value here as a home dog against the Astros. The Rangers have one of the best home records in baseball at 22-9 and come into this game having won 4 straight and 8 of their last 9 overall. Not to mention Texas is a perfect 7-0 against Houston this season.

The Astros are simply getting too much respect here due to having reigning Cy Young winner Dallas Keuchel on the mound. While Keuchel is coming off back-to-back strong outings, he's still got a 5.50 ERA and 1.447 WHIP in 12 starts with the Astros going just 4-8 in those starts. Keuchel has faced Texas twice this year and was hit hard in both outings, giving up 13 runs on 22 hits in 12 innings of work.

The Rangers counter with Cole Hamels, who has been much more consistent with a 3.39 ERA in 11 starts. Texas has gone 7-4 in those outings, including a perfect 2-0 in his 2 starts this season against the Astros, where he allowed just 2 earned runs on 10 hits with 18 strikeouts in 14 2/3 innings of work.

Texas won 6-5 in the series opener last night and Houston is just 5-13 in their last 18 road games revenging a 1-run loss. Rangers are 14-4 in their last 18 home games after winning at least 4 of their last 7 and 18-8 in Hamels' last 26 starts after a win.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Brandon Lee

Marlins -114

Miami is worth a look here as a small road favorite against the Twins. Minnesota is one of the worst teams in the league and come into this game in bad form, having lost 3 straight and 6 of 7 overall. I'll take my chances with Adam Conley against a soft-hitting Twins offense. Conley has a 2.93 ERA in 6 road starts and is coming off a great start at home against the Pirates, where he allowed just 2 hits over 6 scoreless innings. Minnesota counters with lefty Pat Dean, who is coming off an ugly start at Oakland, allowing 4 runs on 9 hits and 2 walks in 5 innings. Miami is 8-2 and averaging 5.1 runs/game against left-handed starters this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Chip Chirimbes

Royals at Orioles
Play: Orioles

The Kansas City Royals are still playing like they have a hangover from last season's World Series victory as they have now dropped five straight as they have fallen three-games behind Cleveland in the AL Central. Baltimore on the other hand has won five of their last six and lead the AL East by a half-game over Boston. Yordano Ventura (4-3, 4.82 ERA) is 4-1 lifetime against the Orioles and had his best start of the season against them but the Royals are struggling.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Price

Arizona Diamondbacks -170

The Arizona Diamondbacks are hungry to get back on track as they sit at just 25-35 on the season after losing 6 of their last 8 overall coming in. They will send ace Zack Greinke to the mound to help them do just that tonight against the Tampa Bay Rays. Greinke is 7-3 with a 4.29 ERA and 1.236 WHIP in 12 starts this season. He has turned the corner of late, going 3-0 with a 2.14 ERA and 0.810 WHIP in his last 3 starts. Matt Moore has struggled all year for the Rays. He's 2-3 with a 5.46 ERA and 1.516 WHIP in 11 starts, including 0-1 with a 6.33 ERA and 1.968 WHIP in 4 road starts. Greinke is 63-17 (+32.6 Units) against the money line as a home favorite of -150 or more in his career. The Rays are 1-7 in Moore's last 8 starts overall and 0-4 in his last 4 road starts.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Nelly

Marlins at Twins
Play: Under

Pat Dean has done a good job in three starts for the Twins plus two extended relief outings as he appears capable of filling a spot in what has been a disastrous starting rotation for Minnesota. Despite a very high .342 BABIP Dean has kept the damage to a minimum while producing nearly 8.0 K/9 and limiting walks. Dean has a quality start in two of his three starting efforts despite facing some tough matchups and this might be his most favorable matchup of his brief career. The Marlins are 8-2 vs. left-handed starters this season but this has been a dreadful offensive team of late, batting .215 with 2.8 runs per game over the last 10 games. Miami has topped four runs once in the last 10 games and Minnesota also continues to score at one of the league's worst rates. The Twins are 4-8 vs. left-handed starters this season and on the season Minnesota is batting .230 with 3.5 runs per game vs. southpaw pitching. Former 2nd round draft pick Adam Conley has been impressive in 11 starts despite fairly average conventional numbers. He has also been weighed down by a very high .325 BABIP but he still owns a solid 3.49 FIP that is lower than his ERA and his strikeout rate is approaching 9.0 K/9. Walks can be an issue for Conley but this is not a patient Minnesota lineup and Conley has allowed only three home runs in 58 innings this season. Target Field has been an 'over' park so far this season but that has been due to terrible pitching, as the Twins are scoring fewer than 3.7 runs per game at home. Dean has proven capable of a solid outing and the Minnesota bullpen outside of Kevin Jepsen has been one of the few bright spots in recent weeks. These teams haven't met since 2013 and in an unfamiliar matchup in a stadium that should generally be lower scoring, this looks like a high number for two of the lesser offensive squads in MLB with stronger starters than the rest of the series will offer tonight.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

AASI Wins

MLB TEXAS RANGERS +100

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Monster Sports Picks

MLB ST LOUIS ‑160

 

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R and R Totals

MLB KANSAS CITY/BALTIMORE ‑105 o9

 

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Tommy King Wins

MLB WASHINGTON NATIONALS ‑125

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Mikey Sports

MLB CLEVELAND +110