Tuesday 5/9/17 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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Trends - Ottawa at NY Rangers


W/L Trends


Ottawa
•Senators are 12-5 in their last 17 games following a win.
• Senators are 7-3 in their last 10 vs. a team with a winning record.
• Senators are 7-3 in their last 10 overall.
• Senators are 7-3 in their last 10 after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game.
• Senators are 7-3 in their last 10 vs. Eastern Conference.
• Senators are 1-4 in their last 5 games playing on 2 days rest.



NY Rangers
•Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Rangers are 4-0 in their last 4 home games.
• Rangers are 4-1 in their last 5 when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous game.
• Rangers are 15-6 in their last 21 after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game.


OU Trends


Ottawa
•Over is 2-0-2 in Senators last 4 overall.
• Under is 1-0-3 in Senators last 4 road games.
• Under is 6-0-1 in Senators last 7 Tuesday games.
• Under is 3-0-1 in Senators last 4 after scoring 5 goals or more in their previous game.
• Over is 2-0-2 in Senators last 4 vs. Eastern Conference.
• Under is 1-0-3 in Senators last 4 road games vs. a team with a winning home record.
• Over is 2-0-2 in Senators last 4 Conference Semifinals games.
• Over is 2-0-2 in Senators last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
• Under is 6-1-1 in Senators last 8 games playing on 2 days rest.
• Over is 3-1-1 in Senators last 5 when their opponent allows 5 goals or more in their previous game.
• Under is 7-3-2 in Senators last 12 games following a win.
• Under is 60-27-4 in Senators last 91 vs. Metropolitan.



NY Rangers
•Under is 3-0-1 in Rangers last 4 games playing on 2 days rest.
• Over is 2-0-2 in Rangers last 4 overall.
• Under is 4-0-2 in Rangers last 6 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
• Under is 4-0-2 in Rangers last 6 home games.
• Over is 2-0-2 in Rangers last 4 vs. Atlantic.
• Over is 2-0-2 in Rangers last 4 vs. Eastern Conference.
• Over is 2-0-2 in Rangers last 4 Conference Semifinals games.
• Over is 2-0-2 in Rangers last 4 vs. a team with a winning record.
• Under is 3-1-1 in Rangers last 5 when their opponent scores 5 goals or more in their previous game.
• Over is 18-7-3 in Rangers last 28 after allowing 5 goals or more in their previous game.


Head to Head


•Home team is 7-0 in the last 7 meetings.
• Under is 19-5-4 in the last 28 meetings in New York.
• Under is 32-11-11 in the last 54 meetings.
• Senators are 1-4 in the last 5 meetings in New York.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

DAVE COKIN

ANGELS VS. ATHLETICS
PLAY: ATHLETICS -125

I have not played this game yet as I want to get lineup info. So keep an eye on my Twitter feed (@davecokin) for an update sometime in the afternoon.

Focusing on the Angels first, they could be quite shorthanded tonight. I don’t know if Mike Trout will be ready to resume action, and Andrelton Simmons is day to day after getting hit in the hand with Kendall Graveman fastball last night.

The Angels lineup on Monday ended up being pretty hapless minus those two players. Not that Simmons is an offensive juggernaut, but he’s way better than the currently hapless Danny Espinoza, who is mired in a ghastly 2/52 slump. Cameron Maybin looks terrible at the plate right now, CJ Cron is still out, Chad Pennington just doesn’t hit much, Kole Calhoun and Albert Pujols are not exactly tearing it up, etc. Take away the amazing Trout, and this is simply not a very threatening lineup at the present time.

Alex Meyer is on the mound tonight for the Angels, and he has yet to show he can pitch at this level. Meyer has a tough time repeating his delivery and his control is lousy. Add in a shorthanded bullpen and I suspect Oakland could have a good night with the sticks.

On the Oakland side, this was a team that had no walkoff wins heading into Saturday’s action. They’ve now won three in a row in that exciting fashion. So it’s safe to say the A’s will be showing up with lots of momentum this evening.

The price is probably about right on this game. But given the unknown status of two key Angels and a very shaky starting pitcher in Meyer, I’m looking at the A’s as the winner of this game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Rob Vinciletti

Ottawa vs. New York
Play: New York -165

The Rangers have played well here at home winning both games so far and have outscored the Senators 8-2. They have played solid defense here and have been a very solid home team and Lundqvist has allowed 1 or no goals in each of his last four home games. The Rangers are 3-1 when trailing a series and 26-14 with revenge. Ottawa is 1-4 with 2 days rest. The host has won the first 5 games and this series seems destined to go the distance. Rangers take game 6.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Essler

Padres +125

A.J. Griffin is off to a good start, but it's four games. Two years ago he gave up 36 home runs playing half his games in Oakland - a huge pitchers' park. Last year he allowed 28 in only 118 innings. The point is that he did not become Clayton Kershaw overnight. And of course in the NL park he has to hit, making it tough to pitch 7/8 innings, barring greatness. Yes, the Rangers have seen plenty of Weaver from his days in Los Angeles, however, I trust him far more. Yes, he's winless - but this is the Rangers who aren't hitting at all, favored on the road, and without a DH, and a bullpen that has a 7.54 ERA on the road. So, even if Texas gets to Weaver, the Padres just need to knock Griffin out and it might be all over. In a bigger park like Petco, Weaver's fly balls are more likely to stay in the park. Whatever the case may by, it's process of elimination here. There would be no chance of taking Texas -140 or thereabouts on the road right now - they're 5-12 on the road to begin with, have lost 7 of 9 games, and if I look at who Weaver has had to face this season, it's been potent offenses for the most part - Colorado (twice), the Dodgers, the Fish when they were hot, at Arizona, and even when he pitched at Atlanta that's when the Braves were mashing the ball. I'll take my chances that Weaver can keep them in it, and bullpen can win it - especially at home at plus-money.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jeff Benton

Tuesday's comp play is the Rangers on the Puck Line to force a 7th game back in Ottawa on Thursday night.

New York has been rock-solid in this series at Madison Square Garden, as they have won their pair of home games by identical 4-1 scores.

The home team has now skated to wins in each of the past 7 series meetings, with 3 of the 4 wins on New York ice coming all by 3 goals.

The Rangers offense has been humming, and with elimination on the line, I will look for them to come through with the win by at least 2 goals this Tuesday evening.

Rangers Puck Line winner.

1* N.Y. RANGERS -1.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Brad Wilton

Tuesday comp winner is the Yankees and Reds to land Over the total once again.

Last night in the first of two, the teams combined for 14 runs and an easy Over.

For the Yankees that makes 3 straight Overs, and Overs in 9 of their last 10 games played.

CC Sabathia has cooled off after a solid open to the season, as the southpaw has an ERA near 11 for his last 3 starts - all of them playing Over the total - and his season ERA now stands at 5.45 with 4 of his 6 season starts playing Over the total!

The Reds have played Overs in 13 of their last 16 games, and starter Tim Adleman owns an ERA close to 5 for his last 3 starts, with 2 of his 3 starts landing Over the total.

No mistaking the stats I have just listed.

Runs a-plenty tonight.

5* N.Y. YANKEES-CINCINNATI OVER

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPORTS WAGERS

Seattle -109 over PHILADELPHIA

Lots to like about the Mariners here. First, Seattle is 6-4 over its last 10 while the Phillies are 2-8. Secondly, the Mariners are 10-5 at home but just 5-12 on the road so a correction to the good in their road record is likely forthcoming. Furthermore, the M’s have hit 34 jacks this year and 31 of those have come against right-handed pitchers. They’ll face a right-hander here in Jerad Eickhoff.Eickhoff had a solid rookie season last year but there are reasons for concern. He had strong command but his first-pitch strike rate suggested it would not last. In 36 innings this year, Eickhoff has a BB/K split of 13/33 but a 54% first-pitch strike rate and low 8% swing and miss rate strongly suggest he’s playing with fire. Eickhoff’s severe issues versus lefties persisted all of last year and it is continuing this year. His fly-ball rate jumped in the 2nd half of last year, which puts him at risk for HR’s and at whims of hr/f. Eickhoff is worth keeping an eye on when being offered a price on the road but there is not much upside to his game right now.

Eickhoff had a solid rookie season last year but there are reasons for concern. He had strong command but his first-pitch strike rate suggested it would not last. In 36 innings this year, Eickhoff has a BB/K split of 13/33 but a 54% first-pitch strike rate and low 8% swing and miss rate strongly suggest he’s playing with fire. Eickhoff’s severe issues versus lefties persisted all of last year and it is continuing this year. His fly-ball rate jumped in the 2nd half of last year, which puts him at risk for HR’s and at whims of hr/f. Eickhoff is worth keeping an eye on when being offered a price on the road but there is not much upside to his game right now.

Then there’s Ariel Miranda. After missing all of the 2014 season because of his defection from Cuba and spending 2015 in the minors, Miranda finally made his major league debut in July of 2016 and finished with a 3.88 ERA over 58 innings. This year, Miranda was originally optioned to Triple-A near the end of spring training, and only made it back into the rotation because of an injury to Drew Smyly, so the Mariners don't seem to have a high level of confidence in him either. We do because the numbers say so. Miranda has a BB/K split of 8/19 in 33 innings. His groundball rate last year was just 34% but this year, it’s a complete turnaround with a 51% rate and 59% in his last start. Miranda is trending strongly the right way. These Cuban pitchers have a history of being resilient and getting better each and every year until they peak. Miranda fits that pattern and we’re going to keep him high on our radar for now.

CINCINNATI +100 over N.Y. Yankees

Tim Adleman has a BB/K split of 4/20 in 21 frames over four appearances (three starts). He also brings a 13% swing and miss rate to the table. His 4.22 ERA has done him no justice thus far but the jury is still out on whether it’s legit or not. We’ll discuss his pros and cons at a later time because it’s not relevant right now because this is more about fading the Yanks than wagering on Adleman.

Yesterday we targeted the Reds, citing that the Yankees were in a very unfavorable situational spot for this series. If exhaustion didn’t set in on the Yanks for last night’s game, chances are that it will here. Just to reiterate, the Yanks are coming off four successive series against the Red Sox, Orioles, Blue Jays and Cubbies, respectively. Sunday night’s 18-inning victory at Wrigley ended about 3:00 AM EST and the Yanks had to travel to play last night’s opener just 17 hours later. The Yanks did not look exhausted last night in a 10-4 victory so fatigue will likely hit them hard here. Aside from that, Masahiro Tanaka is not pitching this time. Instead it’ll be the very hittable C.C. Sabathia.

It's no secret that the once-indestructible Sabathia isn't what he once was but his 180 innings of 3.91 ERA in 2016 was passable. Sabathia allowed just three earned runs in his first three 2017 starts combined but there is no chance of a career renaissance here. With diminished velocity, Sabathia hasn't been able to rack up elite strikeout totals. He's missed a few more bats thus far in 2017, but we're skeptical that can hold all season. The control has wavered with little support from his sub-indicators (first-pitch strike rate and ball %). As a result, Sabathia’s 15 walks in 33 innings is heading into dangerous territory. With two straight seasons of 4.00+ xERA, a fastball sputtering near 90 mph, and brutal venues to pitch in like this one, there's little—if any—upside for Sabathia spotting a tag on the road against the upstart Reds. Last night, Cinci had numerous opportunities to put up crooked numbers but failed to do so. Against C.C., they aren’t likely to fail again

COLORADO -1½ +225 over Chicago Game #1

These two play a double-header today and in staying with our strategy to back the dog, we're playing the Rockies in both games, We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.


COLORADO -1½ +240 over Chicago Game #2

These two play a double-header today and in staying with our strategy to back the dog, we're playing the Rockies in both games, We’re not going to go into a lot of details here regarding the pitchers because it matters not when playing at Coors Field. We are going to commit to playing the underdog all season long at Coors Field on the ALTERNATIVE run line. What that means is that we are playing the remainder of Colorado’s home games this season and we’ll be playing the underdog in each game, whether it’s the Rocks or the opposition and we’ll be playing it regardless of who’s pitching. We’re suggesting that this wager has nothing but big profits in store. With totals being in the 10 to 12½ range daily at this venue, far more games are decided by two runs or more than one run and the underdog wins just as much as the favorite. The pitching matchups rarely matter because even the best get rocked at this park. We’ll keep a running record on this angle all season long.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Will Rogers

Washington vs. Baltimore
Pick: Washington

The set-up: The Nats haven't bested the Orioles in a Beltway Series since going 4-2 back in 2007. The 2017 edition hasn't stared well for the Nats either, as Baltimore rode three HRs to a 6-4 victory on Monday night. Baltimore is now riding a five-game winning streak and sits at 21-10, just a half-game back of the NY Yankees in the AL East (Yanks own MLB's best record at 21-9). Washington fell to 21-11 with a second straight loss, following a four-game winning streak. However, there was good news for Washington, as Bryce Harper returned to the Nationals' lineup on Monday after missing the previous three games with a groin injury and went 2-for-3 with a home run, boosting his season batting average to .385.

The pitching matchup: Max Scherzer (4-2 & 2.66 ERA) will take the mound for the Nats and Ubaldo Jiménez (1-1 & 6.58 ERA) for the Orioles. Scherzer is coming off an excellent outing, striking out 11 and allowing just two hits and one run (on a solo HR) over seven innings of 4-2 Thursday win vs. Arizona last Thursday. It marked the third win in Scherzer's last four starts and he'll take a 5-3 (3.62) LT record against Baltimore into this contest (teams are 5-5 in his 10 starts vs. the Orioles). Jimenez was skipped for his last scheduled start after the Orioles were forced to use him out of the bullpen the previous day. He had turned in two straight dismal starts, lasting 3 1/3 innings in each and giving up a combined 10 runs, but he did toss three scoreless innings in that relief stint. Jimenez owns a solid 6-2 record and 2.24 ERA in nine career starts against the Nationals (teams are 6-3).

The pick: Jimenez could gain some confidence from that recent relief stint but then again, not completing the fourth inning in either of his last two starts is troubling. Meanwhile, Scherzer comes in on a nice roll plus dominated the Orioles

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Larry Ness

Seattle vs. Philadelphia
Pick: Philadelphia

The Mariners play the opener of a two-game interleague series against the Phillies tonight in Philadelphia. Seattle comes in having won four of their last five games against AL West rivals Los Angeles and Texas but sports only a 15-17 record, six games back of the AL West-leading Astros. Meanwhile, the 13-17 Phillies snapped a five-game slide by rallying from three runs down on Sunday to edge Washington 6-5 in 10 innings.

Tuesday's pitching matchup features Ariel Miranda (3-2, 3.55 ERA) for Seattle up against Philadelphia's Jerad Eickhoff (0-3 & 4.00 ERA). Miranda has won his last two starts and Seattle has won four of his six 2017 starts. Miranda faces the Phillies for the first time, like Philly's Eickhoff will be doing against the Mariners. Eickhoff has struggled in his last two outings, allowing nine runs on 14 hits over 11.1 innings. That's after opening the season with four solid starts in which he posted a 2.55 ERA but went winless (0-2 / team was 1-3).

The Phiilies are coming off a rough 10-game stretch in which they played the Dodgers, Cubs and Nationals. However, while they went just 2-8, the Phillies were in every game, holding a lead at some point in nine of the 10 contests. They ended the 10 games with only a minus-9 run differential! All in all, that's impressive considering the opposition. They now get the Mariners, who 'limp' in with a 6-12 road record. Take the home team.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Alan Harris

Boston Red Sox -135

The Boston Red Sox will look for their third win in a row when they hit the road to take on the Brewers at Miller Park in Milwaukee, WI on Tuesday night. Drew Pomeranz (3-1, 4.00 ERA, 1.26 WHIP) will get the start for the Red Sox and he will be opposed by Wily Peralta (4-2, 4.88 ERA, 1.47 WHIP), who is scheduled to get the call on the hill for the Brewers. Boston has posted an 8-2 record in their last ten road games when facing a team that has a losing record at home and they have gone an excellent 6-1 in Pomeranz's last seven starts. The Brewers, on the other hand, have struggled a bit in the spot they are in here tonight as they have lost eight of their last eleven games following a day off and they are an awful 4- 10 in their last fourteen interleague games versus a team with a winning record. Throw in the fact that the Sox 5-1 in their last six games when facing a team from the NL Central and we'll lay the price with them here to get the road win in Milwaukee on Tuesday night.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Power Sports

Atlanta vs. Houston
Pick: Houston

This is by no means a "bargain," but - at home - the Astros absolutely deserve to be significant favorites over the Braves and probably should be much higher on the money line. Houston has emerged as one of the top teams in either league, going 21-11 its first 32 games and outscoring opponents by 33 runs in the process. Atlanta has lost four in a row, is tied for the fewest # of wins in MLB and has been outscored by 28 runs. The oddsmakers are saying this is a complete mismatch and I agree.

Interleague play tends to be dominated by the American League and these two have played a significant role in that. Atlanta is just 14-26 in IL play the previous two seasons while Houston has gone 27-14. The Astros really are as close to a "complete" team as you'll find outside of the Northside of Chicago. The offense is second in team batting average (.275) and third in OBP (.344). The pitching staff has the best WHIP in baseball (1.19) due in large part to what has been a fantastic bullpen. Opponents are hitting just .229 off Astros pitching thus far. The team has won 8 of its 10 series in 2017.

No matter who was pitching for Atlanta today, it would be tough to like them. But Bartolo Colon being on the hill makes things appear almost hopeless. The portly pitcher has posted an 8.44 ERA and 2.062 WHIP his L3 starts, which is obviously terrible. That's 15 runs allowed on 28 hits in just 16 IP. Houston starter Charlie Morton isn't exactly Cy Young himself, but he did look sharp his last turn in the rotation. In a 10-1 win over Texas, he limited the Rangers to just one run on five hits. That came after a a 12 K performance (w/o a walk!) on 4.28 vs. Oakland. This should be an easy one for the home team.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Wunderdog

Cubs / Rockies Under 11 Game #1

The Cubs turn to Jake Arrieta (4-1, 4.63 ERA), who has pitched better than the ERA might suggest, with a 41-9 strikeout to walk ratio in 35 innings. They face a Colorado team that has improved its pitching depth and defense, and is #11 in baseball in fielding. Colorado is 19-9 UNDER the total in home games, including 14-6 UNDER at Coors Field against a righty starter. 22-year-old Rockies righty Antonio Senzatela (4-1, 2.84 ERA) has been impressive with a 2-1 record and a 3.15 ERA in three home starts. The Rockies are 11-4 UNDER the total when their opponent allows five runs or more in their previous game.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Line Mover Sports

MLB TWINS ‑105

 

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Tommy King Wins

MLB MIAMI ‑110

 

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Golden Lock Sports

MLB BOSTON RED SOX ‑135

 

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Team Underground

MLB SD PADES +130

 

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Tys Terrific Tips

NBA ROCKETS +5

 

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Mr Profits Picks

MLB CUBS/COLORADO ‑120 u11

 

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Smart Sports Investments

MLB RANGERS ‑130

 

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Sportsbook Advisor

MLB ARIZONA ‑105