MLB Daily Line Drive: Tuesday's picks, betting odds and analysis
Double-Play Picks
New York Yankees at Cincinnati Reds (-105, 9)
The Over streaks that both the Yankees and Reds are putting up right now will come to an end at some point, it just won't be today.
The Yankees Over/Under record is 20-10 this season (9-1 in their last 10 overall) and the Reds own an O/U record of 19-11 (13-3 in their last 16 overall). Both clubs will be running questionable starters to the hill Tuesday night in a very hitter-friendly ballpark.
CC Sabathia got off to a great start to his 2017 season, and he does own a team W/L record of 5-1, but his last two outings have been less-than-stellar. Sabathia has allowed 13 earned runs in 9.2 innings of work over his last two starts and will face a Reds' lineup that has had great success against left-handed pitching (.262 batting average and 5.62 runs per nine innings vs. lefties this season).
The Reds are scheduled to start right-hander Tim Adleman this evening. This will be Adleman's fourth start of the year and the first three were...just O.K. Sorry Tim, "just O.K." isn't going to cut it against these Yankees.
The Bronx Bombers are back! The Yankees lead the American League in Runs Scored, Home Runs, OPS, and are second (one percentage point behind the Houston Astros) in Team Batting Average. They are young, exciting to watch, and they can flat-out cash Over tickets.
Pick: Over 9
Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies (Game 2) (+110, 8)
Fading the Chicago Cubs in any situation is a dicey proposition, but Game 2 of today's doubleheader seems like the perfect spot.
The Cubs are reeling and tired from getting swept by the Yankees over the weekend (although yesterday's rain-out helped them out in that regard) but you have to assume they will be operating with a split-squad today in Denver. Javier Baez injured his foot Sunday night but will start at SS for Game 1, Anthony Rizzo took an Aroldis Chapman fastball to the bony part of the forearm (x-rays came back clean), and Willson Contreras caught all 18 innings of Sunday night's marathon (he will start Game 2)
John Lackey gets the ball for the Cubs in Game 2 tonight and he has struggled over his last few starts (6.35 ERA in his last three) and has also pitched poorly on the road in 2017 (6.00 ERA in three starts). Another factor to consider is Lackey's lack of success at Coors Field during his career. In the three starts he has made in The Mile High City his teams are 0-3 and he owns an ERA of 9.56.
On the home side, Kyle Freeland climbs the hill for the Rockies for his seventh career start. The first month of Freeland's major league career has gone very, very well. His only loss this season was a disappointing 6-0 defeat at the hands of the San Diego Padres. His overall numbers are very good (Team W/L 5-1, 2.65 ERA) but if you take away that one start his numbers are freakish in his remaining five outings (Team W/L 5-0, 1.20 ERA). Reminder: half of his games are played in Denver.
This is a big test for Freeland, but he should pass with flying colors.
Pick: Rockies +125
Yesterday: 2-0
Season: 28-20-2
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: A.J. Griffin, Texas Rangers (3-0, 3.54 ERA, $497)
A.J. Griffin missed the early part of the season dealing with gout, but after a couple of rocky outings, the Rangers right-hander has began to find his groove.
Griffin is 2-0 in his last two starts, allowing just one earned run, with 15 strikeouts and just two walks in 11 innings pitched. Even with the early rust, the Rangers have won all four of his starts, making Griffin the third best money pitcher in the bigs at $497. He and the Rangers are -140 favorites at the San Deigo Padres today.
Slumping: Jered Weaver, San Diego Padres (0-3, 5.51 ERA, $-600)
Speaking of the money pitchers and the Padres, only one pitcher has cost bettors more money than Jered Weaver. The Padres are 0-6 in his starts this season, despite the fact Weaver pitched pretty well in his first four starts.
The last two, however, have been disastrous. In his last start he allowed 10 runs, five earned on 10 hits in just four innings of work and he has a 9.32 ERA in his last outings. The Padres are +130 home dogs facing off against the Rangers.
Tuesday's Top Trends
* Under is 7-0 in Carlos Carrasco's last seven starts overall. Indians @ Blue Jays, O/U: 8.
* Cardinals are 7-0 in their last seven road games. Cardinals +105 @ Marlins.
* Under is 6-0 in the last six meetings between the Twins and White Sox. O/U: 8.5.
* Astros are 7-0 in their last seven during Game 1 of a series. Astros -190 vs. Braves.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
Tueday should be a mostly decent day for baseball, according to the forecast.
Hitters will be given a bit of a hand this afternoon in San Diego, where there will be a moderate 12-13 mile per hour wind blowing out to right-center field for today's Rangers-Padres game. The total is currently 8.5.
In Oakland it's more of the same, as winds will gust around between 12-13 miles per hour out to right-center field as the A's are scheduled to host Angels.
Meanwhile in Cincinnati, there is a chance of thunderstorms and a 54 percent chance of rain for tonight's interleague contest between the Reds and the New York Yankees at the Great American Ballpark.
Ump Of The Day
Andy Fletcher: There hasn't been any home team bias when Fletcher has been calling balls and strikes this season. The Under is 5-1 in the six games he has officiated this year, which includes the last five overall. The home team money total in his games is $-577, which means underdogs at decent value have been cashing when Fletcher is behind home plate. That's where he'll be when the Nationals visit the Orioles for an interleague matchup tonight. Washington is currently a -160 road favorite.
Double-Play Picks
New York Yankees at Cincinnati Reds (-105, 9)
The Over streaks that both the Yankees and Reds are putting up right now will come to an end at some point, it just won't be today.
The Yankees Over/Under record is 20-10 this season (9-1 in their last 10 overall) and the Reds own an O/U record of 19-11 (13-3 in their last 16 overall). Both clubs will be running questionable starters to the hill Tuesday night in a very hitter-friendly ballpark.
CC Sabathia got off to a great start to his 2017 season, and he does own a team W/L record of 5-1, but his last two outings have been less-than-stellar. Sabathia has allowed 13 earned runs in 9.2 innings of work over his last two starts and will face a Reds' lineup that has had great success against left-handed pitching (.262 batting average and 5.62 runs per nine innings vs. lefties this season).
The Reds are scheduled to start right-hander Tim Adleman this evening. This will be Adleman's fourth start of the year and the first three were...just O.K. Sorry Tim, "just O.K." isn't going to cut it against these Yankees.
The Bronx Bombers are back! The Yankees lead the American League in Runs Scored, Home Runs, OPS, and are second (one percentage point behind the Houston Astros) in Team Batting Average. They are young, exciting to watch, and they can flat-out cash Over tickets.
Pick: Over 9
Chicago Cubs at Colorado Rockies (Game 2) (+110, 8)
Fading the Chicago Cubs in any situation is a dicey proposition, but Game 2 of today's doubleheader seems like the perfect spot.
The Cubs are reeling and tired from getting swept by the Yankees over the weekend (although yesterday's rain-out helped them out in that regard) but you have to assume they will be operating with a split-squad today in Denver. Javier Baez injured his foot Sunday night but will start at SS for Game 1, Anthony Rizzo took an Aroldis Chapman fastball to the bony part of the forearm (x-rays came back clean), and Willson Contreras caught all 18 innings of Sunday night's marathon (he will start Game 2)
John Lackey gets the ball for the Cubs in Game 2 tonight and he has struggled over his last few starts (6.35 ERA in his last three) and has also pitched poorly on the road in 2017 (6.00 ERA in three starts). Another factor to consider is Lackey's lack of success at Coors Field during his career. In the three starts he has made in The Mile High City his teams are 0-3 and he owns an ERA of 9.56.
On the home side, Kyle Freeland climbs the hill for the Rockies for his seventh career start. The first month of Freeland's major league career has gone very, very well. His only loss this season was a disappointing 6-0 defeat at the hands of the San Diego Padres. His overall numbers are very good (Team W/L 5-1, 2.65 ERA) but if you take away that one start his numbers are freakish in his remaining five outings (Team W/L 5-0, 1.20 ERA). Reminder: half of his games are played in Denver.
This is a big test for Freeland, but he should pass with flying colors.
Pick: Rockies +125
Yesterday: 2-0
Season: 28-20-2
Streaking and Slumping Starting Pitchers
Streaking: A.J. Griffin, Texas Rangers (3-0, 3.54 ERA, $497)
A.J. Griffin missed the early part of the season dealing with gout, but after a couple of rocky outings, the Rangers right-hander has began to find his groove.
Griffin is 2-0 in his last two starts, allowing just one earned run, with 15 strikeouts and just two walks in 11 innings pitched. Even with the early rust, the Rangers have won all four of his starts, making Griffin the third best money pitcher in the bigs at $497. He and the Rangers are -140 favorites at the San Deigo Padres today.
Slumping: Jered Weaver, San Diego Padres (0-3, 5.51 ERA, $-600)
Speaking of the money pitchers and the Padres, only one pitcher has cost bettors more money than Jered Weaver. The Padres are 0-6 in his starts this season, despite the fact Weaver pitched pretty well in his first four starts.
The last two, however, have been disastrous. In his last start he allowed 10 runs, five earned on 10 hits in just four innings of work and he has a 9.32 ERA in his last outings. The Padres are +130 home dogs facing off against the Rangers.
Tuesday's Top Trends
* Under is 7-0 in Carlos Carrasco's last seven starts overall. Indians @ Blue Jays, O/U: 8.
* Cardinals are 7-0 in their last seven road games. Cardinals +105 @ Marlins.
* Under is 6-0 in the last six meetings between the Twins and White Sox. O/U: 8.5.
* Astros are 7-0 in their last seven during Game 1 of a series. Astros -190 vs. Braves.
Weather To Keep An Eye On
Tueday should be a mostly decent day for baseball, according to the forecast.
Hitters will be given a bit of a hand this afternoon in San Diego, where there will be a moderate 12-13 mile per hour wind blowing out to right-center field for today's Rangers-Padres game. The total is currently 8.5.
In Oakland it's more of the same, as winds will gust around between 12-13 miles per hour out to right-center field as the A's are scheduled to host Angels.
Meanwhile in Cincinnati, there is a chance of thunderstorms and a 54 percent chance of rain for tonight's interleague contest between the Reds and the New York Yankees at the Great American Ballpark.
Ump Of The Day
Andy Fletcher: There hasn't been any home team bias when Fletcher has been calling balls and strikes this season. The Under is 5-1 in the six games he has officiated this year, which includes the last five overall. The home team money total in his games is $-577, which means underdogs at decent value have been cashing when Fletcher is behind home plate. That's where he'll be when the Nationals visit the Orioles for an interleague matchup tonight. Washington is currently a -160 road favorite.
Ray Monohan
MLB | May 09, 2017
Nationals vs. Orioles
Total 9 -115 at BMAKER
Orioles/Nationals Under 8.5
This play just missed out on our premium card. The Baltimore Orioles and the Washington Nationals play game two of their series on Tuesday night and the under has a ton of value in this one. Whenever Max Scherzer is on the mound, the under is a good bet, and that is who is on the mound in this one for the Nationals. On the season he has been his dominant self. He has had one bad outing which raised his ERA to 2.66, if it wasn't for that it would be much lower.
On the mound for the Orioles is Ubaldo Jimenez who has had the trend so far this season of one bad start and then one good one. In his last start he gave up six earned runs so he is on track to have his good start in this one. Some trends to note. Under is 5-0-1 in Scherzers last 6 Tuesday starts. Under is 4-1 in Jimenezs last 5 interleague starts. The under has too much value here.
Back the Under.Good Luck, Razor Ray.
MLB | May 09, 2017
Nationals vs. Orioles
Total 9 -115 at BMAKER
Orioles/Nationals Under 8.5
This play just missed out on our premium card. The Baltimore Orioles and the Washington Nationals play game two of their series on Tuesday night and the under has a ton of value in this one. Whenever Max Scherzer is on the mound, the under is a good bet, and that is who is on the mound in this one for the Nationals. On the season he has been his dominant self. He has had one bad outing which raised his ERA to 2.66, if it wasn't for that it would be much lower.
On the mound for the Orioles is Ubaldo Jimenez who has had the trend so far this season of one bad start and then one good one. In his last start he gave up six earned runs so he is on track to have his good start in this one. Some trends to note. Under is 5-0-1 in Scherzers last 6 Tuesday starts. Under is 4-1 in Jimenezs last 5 interleague starts. The under has too much value here.
Back the Under.Good Luck, Razor Ray.
John Martin
MLB | May 09, 2017
Tigers vs. Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks -105 at BETONLINE
1 Unit Bonus Play on Arizona Diamondbacks -105
Robbie Ray is coming into his own in 2017. He has gone 2-2 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in six starts this season while striking out a whopping 49 batters in 36 1/3 innings. The Tigers are hitting just .199 and scoring 3.2 runs/game against left-handed starters this season, so Ray should continue to have success here, especially with the Tigers likely missing three key pieces in Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez and Ian Kinsler. Justin Verlander is 1-2 with an 8.81 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in three road starts this year. The Tigers have one of the worst bullpens in baseball with a 6.33 ERA and 1.62 WHIP over 91 innings pitched. The Diamondbacks are 8-2 in their last 10 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
MLB | May 09, 2017
Tigers vs. Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks -105 at BETONLINE
1 Unit Bonus Play on Arizona Diamondbacks -105
Robbie Ray is coming into his own in 2017. He has gone 2-2 with a 3.47 ERA and 1.27 WHIP in six starts this season while striking out a whopping 49 batters in 36 1/3 innings. The Tigers are hitting just .199 and scoring 3.2 runs/game against left-handed starters this season, so Ray should continue to have success here, especially with the Tigers likely missing three key pieces in Victor Martinez, J.D. Martinez and Ian Kinsler. Justin Verlander is 1-2 with an 8.81 ERA and 1.89 WHIP in three road starts this year. The Tigers have one of the worst bullpens in baseball with a 6.33 ERA and 1.62 WHIP over 91 innings pitched. The Diamondbacks are 8-2 in their last 10 home games vs. a right-handed starter.
