Tuesday 06/30/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

[Yanks]

Matt Rivers

Complimentary Pick

For Tuesday take Smoltz and the Red Sox on the road.


Can I fully trust John Smoltz in this his second start of the season? No, probably not, but after getting his feet wet in that dismal first inning last time out in Washington the future Hall of Famer was actually pretty good in the next four innings. I also liked how positive Smoltz was in his post game presser where he flat out seemed to be excited about the way he threw the ball. Sure ESPN showed how he didn't get the ball down ad nauseum but adjustments were made after that initial inning and will continue to be made.


Rich Hill is a lefty that can be pretty good. I backed Hill a few times in the past when with the Cubs and this season as well with the Orioles. The guy has quality stuff and may be alright today but all in all, even in this spot, is at the very best even with his mound opponent and when push comes to shove we all know how much of a superior team right now Boston is when compared to Baltimore. Hill is not a bad guy to back when getting some serious coin back but this is not that start to plunk your cash down on the Southpaw.


Terry Francona's club very well may be the best team in baseball right now. These guys are very well balanced and really do not have an easy out in their lineup. Pedroia, Bay, Ortiz, Ellsbury and others form an ultra talented lineup and even with the potential of the Oriole hitters led by Markakis, Jones and Roberts it's fairly obvious which side is by far the more dangerous.


I'm looking for Smoltz to build off of that first outing and go six or so innings fairly strong, allowing two of three runs. With Jonathan Papelbon lurking this thing has 6-3 written all over it and probably a comfortable save for the Sox closer.


2♦ Red Sox on a 1♦ to 5♦ Scale

 

[Yanks]

Jake Timlin

Today's Complimentary Selection

2♦ Philadelphia Phillies

 

[Yanks]

Tony Weston

Today's Free Selection:

It took extras, but the Dodgers take care of business against the Rockies and deliver for us.

We’re making it 2 in a row tonight as we’re taking the White Sox on the road at the Indians.

Along with yesterday’s 6-3 win against the Indians, the White Sox have won 7 of their last 9 games, including 5 of their last 6. Against Cleveland, Chicago has taken 2 of their last 3 meetings.

The Indians, on the other hand, have had their share of struggles, having lost 11 of their last 13 games overall, including 5 of their last 6.

At home, the Indians are just 1-6 their last 7 games and have lost each of their last 3 in front of the fans at Progressive Field.

Cleveland will drop another as the White Sox make it 2 in a row against their AL Central rival.

3♦ WHITE SOX (on a 1♦ - 5♦ Scale)

 

[Yanks]

Free WNBA Winner from Triple Threat Sports!

Today's Free Winner comes in the WNBA and it is to take Atlanta (-) over Minnesota, which is the ESPN2 televised game.

Like Atlanta here as they are a much improved team from last year's awful edition, and with just one more win they will eclipse last season's overall win total. Even when terrible last year Atlanta almost beat Minnesota on this court, and that was when the Lynx were at full strength, something that is not the case here wiht Simone Augustus out. Minnesota just 4-11 ATS as away dogs of this price, and should drop another one here today.

Thanks, and Good Luck!

 

[Yanks]

Sports Gambling Hotline

Bonus Play

Monday Comp Play winner on the White Sox to make it a 17-9 comp play run the last 26 days.

For Tuesday, we have to lay the road wood with the Red Sox, as Boston just isn't going to lose to the slumping Orioles.

John Smoltz did absorb one of Boston's two losses in their last ten games, but we expect him to iron some wrinkles out in this start against a Baltimore team that has lost their last pair, and five of their last seven.

With last night's win, Boston is a perfect 5-0 against Baltimore this year, and 17-6 overall since last year against their AL East rival.

Baltimore starter Rich Hill is coming off a 4 inning, 6 run shell-job in a loss at Florida, and in two home starts this year sports an ERA over 12.

Lay it with Boston on the road this Tuesday night.

3? BOSTON

 

[Yanks]

Tuesday 8's: Big Unit, Carpenter cap trio of Tuesday tilts

By: Willie Bee - 06/30/2009

COMP.

Three games going off just after eight o'clock tonight pique my interest, capped by a Randy Johnson, Chris Carpenter hook up in St. Louis when the Giants meet the Cardinals.
Angels at Rangers
Rangers Ballpark in Arlington, 8:05 p.m. (ET)
Starting Pitchers: Joe Saunders, L (9-6, 3.66) vs. Scott Feldman, R (8-4, 4.06)

Umpire: Veteran Tim McClelland will be making his 18th start behind the mask in this one. He has a slight lean to the visitors, 10-7, and a heavy lean to the Over, 10-4-3. More than a dozen plate crossings on average when he calls the pitches, with an 8-1-1 O/U/P record in the 8½-10 range.

Weather: Cloudy with a decent chance of rain moving through a lot of Texas today, a welcome relief from the hotter 'n hell spell we've been in. Better chance of rain during the afternoon, and isolated t-storms are a good possibility early in the evening. Looking at something in the mid-to-upper 80s for a temperature, a little wind is out of the NW at 8-10 (out to left, left-center).

My Pick: Tough call here. The Rangers, with the exception of a couple of games late last week at Arizona and home against the Padres, have been very dead on offense for the past couple of weeks. Then again, they always lit Saunders up in this park. Ian Kinsler is already drooling bigger puddles than Pavlov's mutt. Can't play on Texas, hard to play on Saunders given his history in this situation, so I'll play on McClelland and what is generally a hitter's park, hoping the Rangers bats come alive a bit against an arm they feast on, and take the Over 10 (-110).

Twins at Royals
Kauffman Stadium, 8:10 p.m. (ET)
Starting Pitchers: Scott Baker (6-8, 5.17) vs. Brian Bannister (7-6, 4.17)

Umpire: Sam Holbrook is not an umpire angles kinda' ump this season, split 7-7 on the Home-Away side and 6-8 on the Over/Under. If he has a big trend going for him, it's that he's 4-1 for the home team in the -145 to -185 range, a stat that doesn't matter in this one with the Royals the home dogs in this one.

Weather: Beautiful night in KC on Tuesday, or should be. No chance of rain, fairly low humidity for the area, first pitch temp in the upper 70s probably, light breeze out of the north at 5-10 and possibly picking up to 10-15 as the night progresses (from left in towards 1B).

My Pick: I just don't like the Royals right now. At the same time, Minnesota is a money-burner on the road. Give me the Under 9 and I'll shop around to see if I can get it better than the -120 I'm seeing at most shops.

Giants at Cardinals
Busch Stadium, 8:15 p.m. (ET)
Starting Pitchers: Randy Johnson, L (9-7, 4.68) vs. Scott Carpenter (5-5, 1.78)

Umpire: Tim Tschida has been pretty even this year in terms of splits, 7-9 in favor of the visitors and 7-7-2 on the totals. But there is a nice average of 10.3 runs per game and only two 1-run contests among his 15 plate appearances.

Weather: Like their neighbors in KC, it should be a nice evening in St. Louis. Upper 70s when the game gets started, relatively low humidity this time of year but stronger winds out of the NW at 12-18 MPH (from LF corner across to RF corner).

My Pick: Believe it or not, Carpenter is making just his fourth home start of the season, with his last four on the road. St. Louis and Carpenter are 3-0 in his previous three appearances at Busch and one of his few road wins came in San Fran. I hate getting sucked into this big chalk however.

So I'm going to take a little more risk on the run line for the Cardinals, -1½ (+122).

 

[Yanks]

LT Profits Sports Group

Bonus Play

Ted Lilly already has 11 Quality Starts this season while Ross Ohlendorf has a 3.88 ERA and 1.23 WHIP at home. With both bullpens also in fine form, go Under in Pittsburgh here.
Ted Lilly of the Chicago Cubs was roughed up by the Detroit Tigers in his last start, but we look for him to regain his form here vs. the lighter-hitting Pittsburgh Pirates, while Bucs starter Ross Ohlendorf has pitched well at home this season.


Even with that one rough outing. Lilly still has eight Quality Starts in his last 10 outings, and he is among the Major League leaders with his 11 Quality Starts this season out of 15 appearances. He also posted Quality Starts in his last two efforts vs. these Pirates last season, with the last one coming here in Pittsburgh where he was charged with three runs in seven innings of a 12-3 Cubs romp.

As for Ohlendorf, he has managed to go 4-2 with a 3.88 ERA and a good 1.23 WHIP here at home despite not having much of an offense behind him. He is actually in good current form regardless of the venue, as he now has three Quality Starts in his last four starts overall after limiting the Cleveland Indians to two runs on only five hits in seven innings in his last appearance on Wednesday.

Finally, both bullpens are performing well, with the Pittsburgh pen posting an excellent 3.41 ERA over the last 10 games and the Chicago bullpen not far behind at 3.67 over this same span. This should limit late tack-on runs, making this Under even safer.

Free Pick: Cubs, Pirates Under 8½ (-115)

 

[Yanks]

We Cover Spreads

Bonus Play

Joe Saunders faces his demons on the mound in Arlington tonight, and the demons will prevail. Take the Texas Rangers at home on Tuesday against the Angels.
The Los Angeles Angels (42-32) are on a 6-0 run and look to make it a seven-game run tonight against the Texas Rangers (40-35) at the Ballpark in Arlington.


The Angels will be sending Joe Saunders to the hill who is 0-4 with a 10.29 ERA in Arlington in his career. He pitched here earlier this season allowing seven earned runs in just 5.1 innings. Saunders has produced just one quality start in four on the road lately and has a 4.57 ERA on the highway this season overall, vs. a 2.95 ERA pitching at home.

The Rangers counter with Scott Feldman on the mound tonight. He pitched six scoreless innings in a no-decision game earlier this season vs. the Angels. In his last start on June 25, he pitched six quality innings against Arizona allowing three earned runs and four hits to grab the victory. Feldman has been decent at home this season with a 3.82 ERA, and in his last home start he pitched five shutout innings against the Dodgers, giving up just three hits.

Texas has won three of the four meetings between the two teams this season and five of the last seven overall. Their bullpen has a 2.25 ERA in their last 10 games and seems to be getting a grip on things. Considering how shaky the Angels bullpen has been this season gives us confidence when both starts are done for the evening.

The Rangers are 7-1 in Feldman's last eight starts following a quality start. We can expect him to continue pitching solid tonight and look for Saunders' woes to continue in Arlington. We'll back the Rangers laying the short chalk tonight to even things up.

Free Pick: Rangers -115

 

[Yanks]

Cajun Sports

Bonus Play

With Derek Lowe in a funk for the Braves and the Phillies owning a strong record at Turner Field, playing Philadelphia as the road dogs in Atlanta tonight is an easy decision
The Phillies and Braves open a three-game set at the Ted on Tuesday night with Joe Blanton scheduled to get the ball for Philadelphia and Derek Lowe for Atlanta.

Philadelphia should be excited about facing NL teams again after suffering through another bad interleague portion of their season. The Phillies went 6-12 against the American League this year and 4-11 during the regular season last year for a 10-23 combined record versus the AL. If we look at just their NL record for the same time period, we see they are a league-best 121-81 versus National League teams.

The Ted has been very good to the Phillies with them taking all nine games versus the Braves here last season and winning 14 of the last 17 visits to Atlanta overall. Philadelphia, even with their poor record during interleague play, was able to win their last two games versus the Blue Jays and had won 10 of their last 13 NL games before the latest edition of interleague play began.

Blanton is 4-4 on the year with an ERA of 5.06, although over his last three trips to the bump his ERA is a solid 3.20. In his last start versus the Braves earlier this season, they tagged him for six runs on eight hits over eight innings of work for a 6-2 loss. We expect Blanton’s fortunes to change tonight as our Pitcher Efficiency Index projects a Quality Start for Blanton and a projected win over the Braves.

Lowe will take the hill with his 7-6 record and ERA of 4.53. Lowe is currently on a three-game losing skid with an ERA of 12.34 over that span. In his last outing versus the Yankees he was pounded for 11 hits and eight runs in only three innings of an 11-7 loss. Our projection from our Pitcher Efficiency Index is not quite as bright for Lowe in this situation; even though he has been solid against the Phillies in the past we expect him to struggle here. Lowe is 4-12 (-12.4) in home games when playing against a team with a win percentage of 51 to 54 percent since 1997.

Philadelphia is 10-1 (+10.5) in road games vs. a bullpen with a 3.75-4.50 ERA this season and 10-1 (+9.5) in road games vs. teams averaging 0.5 or less stolen bases per game this season. The Phillies are 17-8 (+10.6) on the road and 12-6 (+8.5) as a road underdog of +150 or less this season.

Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Phillies win by 0.77 runs over the Braves tonight and our Math Model also favors the Phillies with a projected win of 1.3 runs. The combination of technical, situational and fundamental factors point to a Phillies win at the Ted so back the visitor here as they continue to build on their most recent winning streak with a game one win over the Braves.

Projected Final Score: Philadelphia-3 Atlanta-2

Free Pick: Phillies +125

 

[Yanks]

Big Al McMordie

Bonus Play

Brandon Morrow has slowly been building arm strength for Seattle while Joba Chamberlain has found his control for the Yankees. Seattle and New York stay Under the total.
Our Tuesday night MLB selection is on the Seattle Mariners and New York Yankees remaining under the total in the Bronx.

Seattle righthander Brandon Morrow is back in the rotation where he wants to be. Morrow never really wanted to be a closer, but he didn't have the arm strength to go seven or eight innings every five days earlier in the year. Now he is trying to make the transition back to starter and so far this latest venture back into the rotation is going pretty well.

The Mariners have taken it slowly with Morrow, and increased his innings in his first three starts from three to four and then to five in his last start at home against San Diego. Tonight should prove to be the toughest of his starting tasks so far, pitching in Yankee Stadium against one of the best lineups, and against another converted reliever in Joba Chamberlain.

Chamberlain put together a very solid outing against the Braves in his last start, and the part that the Yankees no doubt like the most was the fact that he exhibited great control, issuing no walks on that occasion after giving up nine free passes in his two prior starts combined.

In the five games which Morrow has appeared in for the Mariners in June (two relief efforts; three starts) the Mariners have only scored a total of 13 runs, and in those five games a total of only 29 runs have crossed the plate, or an average of less than six runs per game. I foresee a low-scoring game here.
Take the Under.

Free Pick: Mariners-Yankees Under 10 (-120)

 

[whitelightning]

Gamehunter's picks:

2009 Record: 325-308, +73.3449 Jorgensens
Monday: 7-2, +8.320 units

Tuesday is Covers' Radio Day for me. For anyone interested, I will post the link here after 2pm EST.

Did anyone notice Ian Snell's first start in Triple A on Sunday? He tossed 7 innings of two hit ball and did not allow an earned run. After walking the first hitter of the game, he struck out 13 consecutive batters on his way to posting 17 K's. That certainly should boost his confidence.

If any friends will be in Vegas the weeks of July 12th and July 19th, please let GH know.

WASHINGTON +140 (1.5 UNITS)

PHILADELPHIA +120 (2 UNITS)

SAN DIEGO +102 (1.5 UNITS)

OVER COL/DODGERS 8 (-116) (2 UNITS)

TORONTO +117 (1.5 UNITS)

BALTIMORE +118 (1.5 UNITS)

TEXAS -106 (1.5 UNITS)

MINNESOTA -135 (1.75 UNITS)

OAKLAND +107 (1.5 UNITS)

UNDER CUBS/PITT 1ST 5 INNINGS 4.5 RUNS (-115) (1.5 UNITS)

SEATTLE +225 (1 UNIT)

 

[Yanks]

Undefeated's

Free Pick:

Under 8 Chicago/Pittsburgh

 

[Yanks]

Frank Jordan

Bonus Play

Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates

Play: Chicago Cubs

Ted Lilly is pitching well of late as the Cubs had won 5 in a row when he started until last time out when they fell short and lost to Detroit 6-5. This time might be easier as they are taking on a less potent offense of Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh has played well at home as they are over .500 at 21-15, but since winning 4 in a row have dropped back-to-back games. In this one look for Lilly to make the Pirates walk the plank and send Pittsburgh to their 3rd straight loss.

Play Chicago Cubs

 

[Yanks]

The Spread

Detroit Tigers at Oakland A’s, 10:05PM ET

Detroit is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing on the road against Oakland
Detroit is 8-2-1 SU in its last 11 games
Oakland is 1-3-1 SU in its last 5 games when playing Detroit
Oakland is 0-4-1 SU in its last 5 games at home

Pick: Oakland


Los Angeles Angels at Texas Rangers, 8:05PM ET

LA Angels are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games

LA Angels are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games on the road

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Texas's last 6 games when playing at home against LA Angels

Texas is 5-2 SU in their last 7 games when playing LA Angels

Pick: Texas


Philadelphia Phillies at Atlanta Braves, 7:00PM ET

Philadelphia is 15-7 SU in its last 22 games when playing Atlanta

Philadelphia is 2-6 SU in its last 8 games when playing Atlanta

Atlanta is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games

The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Atlanta's last 12 games

Pick: Atlanta

 

[Yanks]

Jr Tips

Bonus Play

ROCKIES vs. DODGERS

Los Angeles Dodgers right-hander Chad Billingsley and Colorado Rockies' Jason Marquis will each go for their NL-best 10th victory. Both pitchers are also trying to bounce back from disappointing outings. Billingsley is (9-3, 3.10 ERA) and Marquis is (9-5, 4.22). Billingsley has failed in his previous two attempts to win his 10th start despite being given at least a three-run lead in each outing. The right-hander blew a four-run advantage Thursday against the host Chicago White Sox and gave up a season-high five earned runs over six innings. Billingsley has won consecutive starts against the Rockies, including a 9-5 victory April 18 at home after going 0-2 with a 5.76 ERA in his first seven appearances. Marquis is 4-0 with a 2.17 ERA in seven starts against the Dodgers since 2004 including a 10-4 win April 26 in Denver. Marquis lost last Wednesday night 11-3 to the Los Angeles Angels giving up eight runs over 3 1/3 innings, his shortest outing this season. He is 0-5 when giving up four or more runs and when he's lost and has done so in miserable fashion with an 11.63 ERA in those five outings. Los Angeles will try to win nine of 10 against Colorado tonight while the Rockies only lost for their 4th time in 24 games last night. Both these teams have seen these pitcher more than twice already this season. Both pitchers have struggled in their last few outings and the batters will have a great advantage tonight having familiarity with the opposing pitchers.

TAKE OVER 8

 

[Yanks]

Triple Threat Sports

Bonus Play

Like Atlanta here as they are a much improved team from last year's awful edition, and with just one more win they will eclipse last season's overall win total. Even when terrible last year Atlanta almost beat Minnesota on this court, and that was when the Lynx were at full strength, something that is not the case here wiht Simone Augustus out. Minnesota just 4-11 ATS as away dogs of this price, and should drop another one here today.

Take Atlanta (-) over Minnesota

 

[Yanks]

Bobby Maxwell

Bonus Play

Arizona at CINCINNATI +125

Going with the Reds at home for tonight's Bonus Play on the diamond as they host the Diamondbacks in the first of this three-game series.

The Reds have been a light-hitting team all season, but over the last two games, these guys have pounded out 28 hits and 15 runs Saturday and Sunday agaisnt the Indians. Tonight, they actually face a team that is even lighter hitting than them and we're going to play Cincinnati in this one.

Each of Cincinnati's last three wins have been big, getting 43 hits in those three wins and 22 runs.

Bronson Arroyo (8-6, 5.54 ERA) is on the mound for the Reds and this guy has had a roller-coaster season, with his last start being a downer as he allowed seven runs on eight hits in 3.2 innings of an 8-2 loss at Toronto.

Cincinnati swept three games in Arizona in May as the Reds hit .333 and outscored Arizona 26-9 in the three-game set. The Reds have won 11 of the last 13 meetings with the D'Backs and they even got a win off tonight's starter, Dan Haren (6-5, 2.25 ERA).
Haren gave up three runs and six hits in seven innings of a 3-1 loss on May 12 and he is now just 1-2 with a 5.06 ERA in five games agaisnt Arizona.

Arizona has dropped five in a row, and lost a slugfest to the Angels on Sunday, falling 12-8. They actually got some offense in that one but still weren't able to pull it off as their bullpen couldnt' do anything right.

Love the plus-money with the Reds in this one. Play Cincinnati.

2? CINCINNATI

 

[Yanks]

Karl Garrett

Bonus Play

Arizona -135 at CINCINNATI

Monday comp play winner on San Francisco in shutout fashion.

For Tuesday, G-Man going to lay some more road wood with the Arizona Diamondbacks to snap their 5 game losing streak with Dan Haren on the mound.

Haren may be just 6-5 on the year, but his ERA is among the best in all of the bigs, at 2.25.

His counterpart Bronson Arroyo sports a season ERA well over 5, and his last 3 starts have seen an alarming 14 runs over his last 16 innings of work for a 1-2 mark.

Arroyo owns a season win over Arizona, but he did allow 5 runs in 7 innings of work in that one, so it is not like he was fooling anyone in that lineup.

The good old "due theory" is in effect on the D-Backs tonight, and the G-Man is on them minus the small road lay.
Take 'Zona.

1? ARIZONA

 

[Yanks]

MTi Sports

Bonus Play

San Francisco Giants at St Louis Cardinals

Prediction: St Louis Cardinals

The Cardinals are 15-0 as a 140+ favorite when seeking immediate revenge for a 4+ run loss ? with each of the last ten wins by multiple runs.

Consider playing the Cardinals on the run-line.

 

[Yanks]

Rocketman Sports

Bonus Play

LAA Angels vs. Texas Rangers

Play: Texas Rangers

Two teams here with similar records as LA Angels are now 42-32 this year and Texas is 40-35 on the season. Texas is 13-3 this year against division opponents. Texas is 38-24 last 3 years when playing on Tuesday. LA Angels bullpen has a 5.49 ERA overall this year and a 5.76 ERA on the road this season. Scott Feldman is 5-2 with a 3.30 ERA in all starts this year and has a 2.57 ERA at home this season. Texas has won 3 out of 4 against the Angels this year. We'll recommend a small play on

Texas tonight!