John Ryan
Bonus Play
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates +120
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Pirates as they host the Cubs slated to start at 7:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 43-20 making 24.8 units since 1997. Play against road teams that are poor hitting teams batting <=.250 facing an average NL starting pitcher sporting an ERA=4.20 to 5.20 and with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better on the season. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 54-26 making 33.3 units since 2003. Play against any team after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games and in a game involving two marginal losing teams sporting a win percentage of 46 to 49%. Pirates are also a perfect 6-0 (+6.7 Units) against the money line in home games versus NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season. Pirates starter Ohlendorf has never faced the Cubs and that is a big advantage for him and the Pirates. It is always far different facing a pitcher in a live situation than analyzing video and scouting tendencies. His slider is by far his best pitch and he throws that 21% of the time. Batters are hitting just 103 on that pitch. Moreover, he will throw slider 38% of the time when ahead in the count. Look for first pitch strikes from him and then to dictate the game from there on out.
Take the Pirates.
Bonus Play
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Pittsburgh Pirates +120
Ai Simulator 3* graded play on the Pirates as they host the Cubs slated to start at 7:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a system that has gone 43-20 making 24.8 units since 1997. Play against road teams that are poor hitting teams batting <=.250 facing an average NL starting pitcher sporting an ERA=4.20 to 5.20 and with a starting pitcher whose WHIP is 1.150 or better on the season. Here is a 2nd system that has gone 54-26 making 33.3 units since 2003. Play against any team after having lost 6 or 7 of their last 8 games and in a game involving two marginal losing teams sporting a win percentage of 46 to 49%. Pirates are also a perfect 6-0 (+6.7 Units) against the money line in home games versus NL teams allowing 4.3 or less runs/game on the season this season. Pirates starter Ohlendorf has never faced the Cubs and that is a big advantage for him and the Pirates. It is always far different facing a pitcher in a live situation than analyzing video and scouting tendencies. His slider is by far his best pitch and he throws that 21% of the time. Batters are hitting just 103 on that pitch. Moreover, he will throw slider 38% of the time when ahead in the count. Look for first pitch strikes from him and then to dictate the game from there on out.
Take the Pirates.
Tom Freese
Bonus Play
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Chicago Cubs -125
Cubs starter Ted Lilly has a 18-1 strikeout to walk ratio in his last 3 starts. Lilly is 20-8 his last 28 starts. Chicago is 6-1 their last 7 games as favorites and they are 7-2 their last 9 games vs. NL Central games. Pittsburgh is 16-42 their last 58 games vs. NL Central teams and they are 2-7 their last 9 games as underdogs. Starting pitcher Ross Ohlendorf is 2-6 vs. NL Central teams. The Pirates are 1-5 off a loss.
PLAY ON CHICAGO - (Lilly vs. Ohlendorf)
Bonus Play
Chicago Cubs vs. Pittsburgh Pirates
Chicago Cubs -125
Cubs starter Ted Lilly has a 18-1 strikeout to walk ratio in his last 3 starts. Lilly is 20-8 his last 28 starts. Chicago is 6-1 their last 7 games as favorites and they are 7-2 their last 9 games vs. NL Central games. Pittsburgh is 16-42 their last 58 games vs. NL Central teams and they are 2-7 their last 9 games as underdogs. Starting pitcher Ross Ohlendorf is 2-6 vs. NL Central teams. The Pirates are 1-5 off a loss.
PLAY ON CHICAGO - (Lilly vs. Ohlendorf)
Rocky Atkinson
Bonus Play
Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers
Texas Rangers -115
LA Angels @ Texas 8:05 PM EST
Play On: Texas (Saunders/Feldman) Listed
Two teams here with similar records as LA Angels are now 42-32 this year and Texas is 40-35 on the season. Texas is 13-3 this year against division opponents. Texas is 38-24 last 3 years when playing on Tuesday. LA Angels bullpen has a 5.49 ERA overall this year and a 5.76 ERA on the road this season. Scott Feldman is 5-2 with a 3.30 ERA in all starts this year and has a 2.57 ERA at home this season. Texas has won 3 out of 4 against the Angels this year.
We'll recommend a small play on Texas tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
Bonus Play
Los Angeles Angels vs. Texas Rangers
Texas Rangers -115
LA Angels @ Texas 8:05 PM EST
Play On: Texas (Saunders/Feldman) Listed
Two teams here with similar records as LA Angels are now 42-32 this year and Texas is 40-35 on the season. Texas is 13-3 this year against division opponents. Texas is 38-24 last 3 years when playing on Tuesday. LA Angels bullpen has a 5.49 ERA overall this year and a 5.76 ERA on the road this season. Scott Feldman is 5-2 with a 3.30 ERA in all starts this year and has a 2.57 ERA at home this season. Texas has won 3 out of 4 against the Angels this year.
We'll recommend a small play on Texas tonight! Thanks and good luck, Rocky
Dave Price
Bonus Play for 6/30/09
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals
Total 9 Under-120
Head to head, the Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Kansas City. On top of that, the Under is 4-0 in the Twins last 4 overall and 24-8-2 in the Twins last 34 road games. The Under is 6-0-1 in the Royals last 7 overall and 21-10-1 in Bannister's last 32 home starts. Lastly, the Under is 7-2-1 in Baker's last 10 starts vs. the Royals. We saw just 6 total runs in this matchup yesterday and I'm expecting another low number tonight.
1 Unit on Twins/Royals UNDER 9
Bonus Play for 6/30/09
Minnesota Twins vs. Kansas City Royals
Total 9 Under-120
Head to head, the Under is 7-3 in the last 10 meetings in Kansas City. On top of that, the Under is 4-0 in the Twins last 4 overall and 24-8-2 in the Twins last 34 road games. The Under is 6-0-1 in the Royals last 7 overall and 21-10-1 in Bannister's last 32 home starts. Lastly, the Under is 7-2-1 in Baker's last 10 starts vs. the Royals. We saw just 6 total runs in this matchup yesterday and I'm expecting another low number tonight.
1 Unit on Twins/Royals UNDER 9
Jeff Alexander
Bonus Play for June 30, 2009
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Indians
Chicago White Sox +175
The Indians send the reigning AL Cy Young winner to the hill, but I'm backing the Sox at this price. They have been a better offensive team on the road this season and they come into this one winners of 5 of their last 6 overall and 9 of their last 12 on the road. The Indians are really struggling, going 2-11 in their last 13 overall and 0-5 in their last 5 games as a home favorite. Plus, they are just 5-12 in Lee's last 17 starts.
Bet the White Sox.
1 Unit on Chicago White Sox +175
Bonus Play for June 30, 2009
Chicago White Sox vs. Cleveland Indians
Chicago White Sox +175
The Indians send the reigning AL Cy Young winner to the hill, but I'm backing the Sox at this price. They have been a better offensive team on the road this season and they come into this one winners of 5 of their last 6 overall and 9 of their last 12 on the road. The Indians are really struggling, going 2-11 in their last 13 overall and 0-5 in their last 5 games as a home favorite. Plus, they are just 5-12 in Lee's last 17 starts.
Bet the White Sox.
1 Unit on Chicago White Sox +175
Robbie Gainous
Bonus Play
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Philadelphia Phillies +115
The Phillies and Braves open a three-game set at the Ted on Tuesday night with Joe Blanton scheduled to get the ball for the Phillies and Derek Lowe for the Braves. Philadelphia should be excited about facing NL teams again after suffering through another interleague portion of their season. The Phillies went 6-12 W/L against the American League this year and 4-11 W/L during the regular season last year for a 10-23 W/L combined record versus the AL. If we look at just their NL record for the same time period we see they are a league best 121-81 W/L versus National League teams during that same time frame. The Ted has been very good to the Phillies with them taking all nine games versus the Braves here last season and winning fourteen of the last seventeen visits to ATL overall. Philadelphia even with their poor record during interleague play were able to win their last two games versus the Blue Jays and had won ten of their last thirteen NL games before the latest edition of interleague play began. Philadelphia’s Joe Blanton is 4-4 W/L on the year with an ERA of 5.06 although over his last three trips to the bump his ERA is a solid 3.20. In his last start versus the Braves earlier this season they tagged him for six runs on eight hits over eight innings of work for a 6 to 2 loss. We expect Blanton’s fortunes to change tonight as our Pitcher Efficiency Index projects a Quality Start for Blanton and a projected win over the Braves at the Ted on Tuesday night. The Braves Derek Lowe will take the hill with his 7-6 W/L record and ERA of 4.53. Lowe is currently on a three-game losing skid with an ERA of 12.34 over that span. In his last outing versus the Yankees he was pounded for eleven hits and eight runs in only three innings of an 11 to 7 loss. Our projection from our Pitcher Efficiency Index is not quite as bright for Lowe in this situation even though he has been solid against the Phillies in the past we expect him to struggle here. Lowe is 4-12 W/L (-12.4) in home games when playing against a team with a win percentage of 51 to 54 percent since 1997. Philadelphia is 10-1 W/L (+10.5) in road games vs. a bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season and 10-1 W/L (+9.5) in road games vs. teams averaging 0.5 or less stolen bases per game this season. The Phillies are 17-8 W/L (+10.6) on the road and 12-6 W/L (+8.5) as a road underdog of +150 or less this season. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Phillies win by 0.77 runs over the Braves tonight and our Math Model also favors the Phillies with a projected win of 1.3 runs. The combination of technical, situational and fundamental factors point to a Phillies win at the Ted so back the visitor here as they continue to build on their most recent winning streak with a game one win over the Braves.
Graded Selection: 2* Philadelphia Phillies 3 Atlanta Braves 2
Bonus Play
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Atlanta Braves
Philadelphia Phillies +115
The Phillies and Braves open a three-game set at the Ted on Tuesday night with Joe Blanton scheduled to get the ball for the Phillies and Derek Lowe for the Braves. Philadelphia should be excited about facing NL teams again after suffering through another interleague portion of their season. The Phillies went 6-12 W/L against the American League this year and 4-11 W/L during the regular season last year for a 10-23 W/L combined record versus the AL. If we look at just their NL record for the same time period we see they are a league best 121-81 W/L versus National League teams during that same time frame. The Ted has been very good to the Phillies with them taking all nine games versus the Braves here last season and winning fourteen of the last seventeen visits to ATL overall. Philadelphia even with their poor record during interleague play were able to win their last two games versus the Blue Jays and had won ten of their last thirteen NL games before the latest edition of interleague play began. Philadelphia’s Joe Blanton is 4-4 W/L on the year with an ERA of 5.06 although over his last three trips to the bump his ERA is a solid 3.20. In his last start versus the Braves earlier this season they tagged him for six runs on eight hits over eight innings of work for a 6 to 2 loss. We expect Blanton’s fortunes to change tonight as our Pitcher Efficiency Index projects a Quality Start for Blanton and a projected win over the Braves at the Ted on Tuesday night. The Braves Derek Lowe will take the hill with his 7-6 W/L record and ERA of 4.53. Lowe is currently on a three-game losing skid with an ERA of 12.34 over that span. In his last outing versus the Yankees he was pounded for eleven hits and eight runs in only three innings of an 11 to 7 loss. Our projection from our Pitcher Efficiency Index is not quite as bright for Lowe in this situation even though he has been solid against the Phillies in the past we expect him to struggle here. Lowe is 4-12 W/L (-12.4) in home games when playing against a team with a win percentage of 51 to 54 percent since 1997. Philadelphia is 10-1 W/L (+10.5) in road games vs. a bullpen whose ERA is 3.75 to 4.50 this season and 10-1 W/L (+9.5) in road games vs. teams averaging 0.5 or less stolen bases per game this season. The Phillies are 17-8 W/L (+10.6) on the road and 12-6 W/L (+8.5) as a road underdog of +150 or less this season. Our TPR (Team Performance Ratings) Index projects a Phillies win by 0.77 runs over the Braves tonight and our Math Model also favors the Phillies with a projected win of 1.3 runs. The combination of technical, situational and fundamental factors point to a Phillies win at the Ted so back the visitor here as they continue to build on their most recent winning streak with a game one win over the Braves.
Graded Selection: 2* Philadelphia Phillies 3 Atlanta Braves 2
Marc Lawrence
Today’s Free Pick
Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers Jun 30, 2009 8:05PM
PICK: Los Angeles Angels
REASON FOR PICK: Play On: L.A. Angels w/Saunders
Note: When the Angels send right hander Joe Saunders to the mound against the Rangers in Arlington tonight they will do so knowing he has cashed in 10 of his last 14 road team starts. He is also 8-4 in his last twelve team starts in June. With the Rangers mired in a hitting slump, we'll stay with the steady serves of Saunders and the Halos here this evening.
We recommend a 1-unit play on the Angels with Saunders.
Today’s Free Pick
Los Angeles Angels @ Texas Rangers Jun 30, 2009 8:05PM
PICK: Los Angeles Angels
REASON FOR PICK: Play On: L.A. Angels w/Saunders
Note: When the Angels send right hander Joe Saunders to the mound against the Rangers in Arlington tonight they will do so knowing he has cashed in 10 of his last 14 road team starts. He is also 8-4 in his last twelve team starts in June. With the Rangers mired in a hitting slump, we'll stay with the steady serves of Saunders and the Halos here this evening.
We recommend a 1-unit play on the Angels with Saunders.
Alex Smart
Today’s Free Pick
Sacramento Monarchs @ Chicago Sky Jun 30, 2009 8:00PM
SPORT:WNBA Picks
PICK: Chicago Sky
REASON FOR PICK: Oh how the mighty have fallen! The Sacramento Monarchs a perennial Western Conference power house have looked horrendous to this point in the season losing 7 of their first 8 games, including 5 straight , with the last three coming by a DD deficits. Meanwhile, the Chicago Sky (5-3), playing their fourth season in the league, are finally looking like a team that could reach the .500 or better plateau , which means they have come long way from their inaugural 5-29 2006 campaign.
The Sky have won all 4 of their home games this season, while Sacramento has lost all 5 of their road tilts. Im betting nothing changes today , and more importantly that we cover the number laying the lumber with the Sky.
PICK: Chicago Sky
Today’s Free Pick
Sacramento Monarchs @ Chicago Sky Jun 30, 2009 8:00PM
SPORT:WNBA Picks
PICK: Chicago Sky
REASON FOR PICK: Oh how the mighty have fallen! The Sacramento Monarchs a perennial Western Conference power house have looked horrendous to this point in the season losing 7 of their first 8 games, including 5 straight , with the last three coming by a DD deficits. Meanwhile, the Chicago Sky (5-3), playing their fourth season in the league, are finally looking like a team that could reach the .500 or better plateau , which means they have come long way from their inaugural 5-29 2006 campaign.
The Sky have won all 4 of their home games this season, while Sacramento has lost all 5 of their road tilts. Im betting nothing changes today , and more importantly that we cover the number laying the lumber with the Sky.
PICK: Chicago Sky
Vegas Experts
Bonus Play
Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals
AL Central foes go at it again tonight in Kansas City as the Royals play host to the Minnesota Twins. This season, three of the four games in the series have gone OVER the total. Minnesota starter Scott Baker has gone OVER all eight times over the past two seasons as a favorite of $1.00 to $1.50. Match that with the Royals going OVER in 17 of 26 games against right-handed starters at home. Go with the OVER
Play on: OVER
Bonus Play
Minnesota Twins at Kansas City Royals
AL Central foes go at it again tonight in Kansas City as the Royals play host to the Minnesota Twins. This season, three of the four games in the series have gone OVER the total. Minnesota starter Scott Baker has gone OVER all eight times over the past two seasons as a favorite of $1.00 to $1.50. Match that with the Royals going OVER in 17 of 26 games against right-handed starters at home. Go with the OVER
Play on: OVER
Scott Delaney
Today's Complimentary Selection
We're on a 22-15-1 run with complimentary releases, and tonight we're taking the Diamondbacks against Cincinnati.
I know the Reds have shown some offensive prowess lately, but overall this season the Reds are among the worst hitting teams in the majors. The team owns a .247 batting average. And I like out chances with Arizona and Danny Haren tonight, as he should have no problem helping the Snakes end their season-high five-game losing streak.
He’s the National League’s ERA leader and comes in after allowing two runs and four hits with eight strikeouts in seven innings of a 2-1 loss to Texas. Run support was the issue in that pitching gem, as Haren had gone 3-0 with a 1.66 ERA in his previous five starts.
He’s a much better choice than Bronson Arroyo, who toes the rubber for the Reds tonight. Arroyo, who was hit hard last Wednesday, has been inconsistent through five June starts, going 1-3 with a 6.51 ERA.
Take the Snakes tonight.
1♦ ARIZONA D'BACKS (WITH Haren and Arroyo)
Today's Complimentary Selection
We're on a 22-15-1 run with complimentary releases, and tonight we're taking the Diamondbacks against Cincinnati.
I know the Reds have shown some offensive prowess lately, but overall this season the Reds are among the worst hitting teams in the majors. The team owns a .247 batting average. And I like out chances with Arizona and Danny Haren tonight, as he should have no problem helping the Snakes end their season-high five-game losing streak.
He’s the National League’s ERA leader and comes in after allowing two runs and four hits with eight strikeouts in seven innings of a 2-1 loss to Texas. Run support was the issue in that pitching gem, as Haren had gone 3-0 with a 1.66 ERA in his previous five starts.
He’s a much better choice than Bronson Arroyo, who toes the rubber for the Reds tonight. Arroyo, who was hit hard last Wednesday, has been inconsistent through five June starts, going 1-3 with a 6.51 ERA.
Take the Snakes tonight.
1♦ ARIZONA D'BACKS (WITH Haren and Arroyo)
Dominic Fazzini or Fazini Comp Pick
Dan Haren (6-5, 2.25 ERA) has been one of the few bright spots for the Diamondbacks this season.<o
></o>
The Arizona right-hander leads the National League in ERA, but hasn’t gotten much support from his offense. That again was the case in his last start Wednesday, when he allowed two runs on four hits in seven innings against Texas but lost 2-1. In Haren’s previous five starts, he was 3-0 with a 1.66 ERA.<o></o>
Haren will try to help Arizona snap a season-high five-game losing streak as he faces the Reds today. Haren gave up three runs on six hits in seven innings of a 3-1 loss to Cincinnati on May 12, falling to 1-2 with a 5.06 ERA in five games (four starts) against the team.<o></o>
Right-hander Bronson Arroyo (8-6, 5.54) takes the mound for the Reds, and he has struggled this month, going 1-3 with a 6.51 ERA in five starts. Arroyo got battered for seven runs and eight hits, including three homers, in 3 2/3 innings Wednesday in an 8-2 loss at Toronto.<o></o>
He hasn’t fared very well vs. the Diamondbacks in his career, going 1-2 with a 5.97 ERA in seven starts. And even in that lone win he wasn’t sharp, allowing five runs and 10 hits, including three homers, in seven innings on May 11.<o></o>
Arizona might be struggling, but it has actually played better away from home this year, so leaving Phoenix could be the best thing for the team. And the way Haren has been throwing, I’ll gladly take him against Arroyo any day. Take the Diamondbacks.
(Based on a 1♦ to 5♦ scale)
Dan Haren (6-5, 2.25 ERA) has been one of the few bright spots for the Diamondbacks this season.<o
></o>The Arizona right-hander leads the National League in ERA, but hasn’t gotten much support from his offense. That again was the case in his last start Wednesday, when he allowed two runs on four hits in seven innings against Texas but lost 2-1. In Haren’s previous five starts, he was 3-0 with a 1.66 ERA.<o
></o>Haren will try to help Arizona snap a season-high five-game losing streak as he faces the Reds today. Haren gave up three runs on six hits in seven innings of a 3-1 loss to Cincinnati on May 12, falling to 1-2 with a 5.06 ERA in five games (four starts) against the team.<o
></o>Right-hander Bronson Arroyo (8-6, 5.54) takes the mound for the Reds, and he has struggled this month, going 1-3 with a 6.51 ERA in five starts. Arroyo got battered for seven runs and eight hits, including three homers, in 3 2/3 innings Wednesday in an 8-2 loss at Toronto.<o
></o>He hasn’t fared very well vs. the Diamondbacks in his career, going 1-2 with a 5.97 ERA in seven starts. And even in that lone win he wasn’t sharp, allowing five runs and 10 hits, including three homers, in seven innings on May 11.<o
></o>Arizona might be struggling, but it has actually played better away from home this year, so leaving Phoenix could be the best thing for the team. And the way Haren has been throwing, I’ll gladly take him against Arroyo any day. Take the Diamondbacks.
(Based on a 1♦ to 5♦ scale)
3♦ ARIZONA
