Tuesday 06/23/09 service plays chatter/comps/requests & gm strategy...

[Yanks]

Vernon Croy

Bonus Play

-=TOP PLAY=-

Kansas City Royals vs. Houston Astros:

Kansas City Royals -135

Take the Kansas City Royals on the Moneyline, The Royals have the superior pitcher on the mound tonight with Zack Greinke (8-3, 1.96 ERA) and the Royals have put up 5 or more runs in 7 of their last 8 games. The Royals are 0-4 in Greinke's last 4 starts but I look for them to get the win tonight on the road since Greinke should have plenty of run support. Russ Ortiz (3-2, 3.60) takes the mound for the Astro's and he gave up 7 hits and 3 earned runs including 2 long balls in his last outing which was against the Texas Rangers. The Astro's are just 3-13 in their last 16 games when playing after an off day and they are just 1-5 in their last 6 interleague games when playing a team with a losing record. The Astro's are just 8-20 in their last 28 games in game 1 of a series and the Royals are 5-1 in Greinke's last 6 starts in game 1 of a series. The Astro's are just 8-18 in their last 26 games as a underdog of +110 to +150 and they are just 7-16 in their last 23 games against an AL Central opponent.

Take the Kansas City Royals as my MLB Bonus Play for Tuesday night.

 

[Yanks]

Dave Price

Bonus Play for 6/23/09

Kansas City Royals vs. Houston Astros:

Kansas City Royals -135


I'll back Greinke and the Royals on the road tonight. Greinke is 8-3 with a 1.96 ERA this season and he will be hungry to get back in the win column tonight following a poor outing against the D-backs in his last start. You have to like his chances against an Astros team that has struggled to score runs consistently all season long. Greinke is 5-1 with a 2.58 ERA in 11 interleague games - five starts - since the start of the 2007 season. N.L. teams which haven't seen him before have really looked bad in the batters box and I expect that to be the case again tonight. The Astros are a poor 3-13 in their last 16 games following an off day and the Royals are 5-1 in Greinke's last 6 starts in game 1 of a series so I expect the Royals to prevail tonight.

1 Unit on Kansas City Royals -135

 

[Yanks]

John Ryan

Bonus Play

Cleveland Indians vs. Pittsburgh Pirates:

Cleveland Indians +100


Ai Simulator 3* graded play on Cleveland as they face Pittsburgh slated to start at 7:05 EST. Supporting this graded play is a strong system that has posted a 224-166 mark for 58% winners and has made 66.2 units since 1997. Play against home teams that lack in the power department averaging 0.75 or less HR's/game on the season and after a one run loss. Neither team playing well right now, but Pittsburgh is in worse shape. They have posted a 26-57 (-23.0 Units) mark against the money line after 3 or more consecutive road games over the last 2 seasons. Pirates coming off a sweep of Colorado losing 5-4 last night. David Huff will start for the Indians and has been effective over his last 3 starts. In his second to last start he went 7.3 IP against ST. Louis allowing just 3 ER on 6 hits. Snell is starting for the pirates and he has pitched well over his last 3 starts, but has been troubled by control and lack of run support in many of his starts. Snell will find it far more difficult against the Indians led by DeRosa who is batting 500 against Snell. Moreover, Snell throws FM 66% of the time and batters are nailing that pitch at a 331 clip.

Take Cleveland to roll.

 

[Yanks]

Vegas Experts

Bonus Play

Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers


The Minnesota Twins have already swept the Milwaukee Brewers this season at the Metrodome. The Twins have defeated the Brewers 10 of their last 15 tries. Minnesota has responded well when coming off a day of rest as they are 20-4. The Twins have been one of the best teams in interleague action and have gone 22-8 over the past two seasons. Minnesota outscored the Brewers 23-8 in their three-game series. Go with the Twins

Play on: Minnesota

 

[Yanks]

Nick "BookieKiller" Parsons

SEA (-145) vs SD

The Seattle Mariners have been enjoying interleague play against some of the NL's struggling clubs. They'll get to face one of them, the San Diego Padres, for the second time in a week starting Tuesday night at Safeco Field. Seattle (35-34) won the first two games at San Diego before falling 4-3 in 10 innings in Thursday's series finale, ending its seven-game winning streak against the Padres. The Mariners followed that series win up by sweeping three games from last-place Arizona. The Mariners scheduled starter for Tuesday is Garrett Olson (2-1, 4.23), who pitched two-thirds of an inning in relief Sunday. The left-hander was solid in his last start Wednesday, allowing three runs and two hits - both homers - in six innings of a 4-3 win at San Diego. That performance, which came in Olson?s first game against the Padres, followed a two-run, five-inning effort in a 6-3 victory at Baltimore six days prior. San Diego is a horrible 2-9 (-6.4 units) as a road dog of +125 to +150.

Play on SEATTLE!

 

[Yanks]

Tony Weston

Bonus Play

Tough loss last night as the Cubs couldn’t take care of business. That’s fine because we’re getting back on the winning track tonight as we’re taking the Braves at home against the visiting Yankees.

Continuing their up and down season, the Yankees are playing in one of their worst stretches of this season as they’ve won just 4 of their last 12 games overall and only 1 of their last 6 games on the road.

Over the last week, New York has gone just 1-5, getting outscored 15-8 their last 6 games.

What doesn’t bode well for the Yankees is that they turn to Chien-Ming Wang, who has struggled mightily this season. In six starts this year the Yankees are just 1-5 as he has not recorded a single win. In that 6-game stretch Wang has allowed 35 earned runs in 18 1/3 innings of work.

Now Wang has to face a Braves team that’s won 4 of its last 6 games at home and sends young stud Tommy Hanson to the mound. The Braves have won each of Hanson’s 3 starts so far this year and have seen him allow only 2 earned runs in his last 2 starts as he’s thrown 11 2/3 innings in that stretch.

Hanson will shut down the Yankees as Wang gets hammered again. Take the Braves easily in this one tonight.

3* BRAVES

 

[Yanks]

Bobby Maxwell

Bonus Play

L.A. Dodgers +110 at CHICAGO WHITE SOX

Today's FREE selection takes us to the Windy City where we will play the Dodgers in town to take on the White Sox.

Chicago really struggles to score runs, especially at home, so let's take the Dodgers and the plus-money in this one.

The White Sox are 29th in the majors with a .219 batting average at home and last overall with just 117 runs scored in front of their home fans. They are 16-18 at home and they've lost nine of 13 overall. On the hill today for the White Sox is John Danks (5-5, 4.48 ERA) who held the Cubs to one run on five hits in seven innings of a 4-1 win on Wednesday.

The Dodgers might be making some headway in interleague play after taking two of three in their Freeway Series rivalry against the Angels over the weekend. They won Sunday's game 5-3 and now get a White Sox team that can't score.

Hiroki Kuroda (1-3, 3.86 ERA) is on the mound for the Dodgers, looking to get healthy against the light-hitting Sox. he missed almost two months with a strained oblique and he is 0-3 with a 4.43 ERA in his last four starts. He's never faced the White Sox.

Los Angeles is 21-14 on the road this seaosn and 6-2 in their last eight interleague games. Look for the Dodgers to get on top early and Kuroda to give them a quality start and the bullpen to bring it home. We're play Los Angeles in this one.

4* L.A. DODGERS

 

[Yanks]

Karl Garrett

Bonus Play

Baltimore (pick) at FLORIDA

The Marlins are feeling pretty good about themselves right now, as they took 2 of 3 off the Yankees, and now get another AL East team in their home ball park for a 3-game set.

Problem is, Baltimore is playing some lights-out baseball right now, and a big part of it is their bullpen which has been near unhitable.

The Orioles have won 5 straight, and 7 of their last 8, and the G-Man is loading up on the O's to make it 6 straight, and 8 of 9.

Andrew Miller has allowed 7 runs over his last 11 innings, and right now the Orioles aren't missing too many balls left out over the plate during their current tear.

Koji Uehara hasn't been great, but he has at least kept his club in games, and the way the Baltimore pen has been producing, all we need to do is keep this one close, and let the Oriole bats do the rest.

G-Man backing the Orioles in this interleague meeting.

3* BALTIMORE

 

[Yanks]

Nelly

Bonus Play

Minnesota + over Milwaukee

Milwaukee was swept in three games at the Metrodome earlier this season and the Twins have had great success in this series in the last few years even though Milwaukee has been a solid team overall. Minnesota enters this series off a disappointing home series against Houston, losing the final two games including a game where they led most of the way. Minnesota has historically been one of the best interleague teams in baseball, going 50-17 in the last 67 games including winning seven of the last ten in Milwaukee. Francisco Liriano has been a disappointment this season but he has pitched better than his 2-8 record indicates. He has allowed just eight runs over his last three starts, spanning 19 innings and yet did not pick up a win for his efforts. Milwaukee is batting .247 at home against left-handed pitching this season and the Brewers are batting just .238 at Miller Park overall for the year. The Twins are batting .282 in the last ten games and Minnesota has won the past two road series despite poor numbers overall away from home. Jeff Suppan owns a 5.47 ERA at home this season and his WHIP is 1.56 which will be problematic against a very solid Twins offense that features several dangerous left-handed hitters. The Brewers are just 17-14 at home and despite a slightly better record, Minnesota appears to have the stronger overall team.

 

[Yanks]

MTi Sports

Bonus Play

Los Angeles Dodgers at Chicago White Sox

Prediction: Under

The White Sox are 0-8 OU as a favorite in the first game of a series and the Dodgers are 0-9 OU when Hiroki Kuroda starts when their line is within 20 cents of pickem vs a team that has hit more grounders than fly balls season-to-date.

Take these two UNDER.

 

[joe361]

Al DeMarco has a release:

Interleague Under-Valued
Chalk of the Year

5 Dime Release

If you're seeing this, the game hasn't started

25-13 Best Bet Run (20-10 last 20)

Vegas has underpriced this favorite

 

[Yanks]

Red Dog Sports

Bonus Play

Cleveland at Pittsburgh


Huff and Ian Snell have combined for 12 overs and just 8 unders. Cleveland has a good offense and poor pitching and have 40 overs and just 29 unders this year. Huff's ERA is close to 7 while Snell's is 5.08. Cleveland is just 1-7 in their last 8 at Pittsburgh but we like the over in this meeting.

Play Over 9

 

[Yanks]

Sports Gambling Hotline

Bonus Play

Philadelphia at TAMPA BAY -155

You may not know it by Tampa's numbers, as only one of their last 5 games have gone OVER the total, but we have a strong feeling the hits and runs are going to be flying all over the Trop this Tuesday night.

The Phillies come to town having gone OVER in 5 of their last 8 games, and starter Jamie Moyer is coming off a start in which he allowed 6 runs in 6 innings of work.

For the season, Moyer's ERA stands at 6.35, and facing this Rays lineup could very well see a few more runs cross the plate.

Tampa will counter with David Price is fresh off allowing 5 runs in 7 innings in a loss at Colorado.

This is a World Series rematch, and tonight we look for the hitters to have their way, and for this meeting to sail OVER the posted price.

Play the OVER.

1* OVER

 

[Yanks]

Tommy Gill

Bonus Play

Tampa is looking for some revenge from there World Series loss last season against the Phillies today and they have a good shot in getting it with the troubles the Phillies have had in there pitching this season. The Phillies have faced AL East teams there last 9 games going 1-8 in those games and losing there last 6 games at home to Toronto and Baltimore. The Rays are leading the league in runs scored and that is a bad sign for a Phillies team that has no bullpen with 3 of there best relievers on the DL and Ibanez on the DL that is a big bat that is missing from there lineup as well. The Pitching matchup in this game is Moyer (4-6 6.35 ERA) vs Price (1-1 3.46 ERA) with Tampa hitting .281 against lefties this season I don't see a problem with them getting enough runs today not to cover the RL. RL are covering at 72% this season so I believe this is a good value bet in this spot.

2 units Tampa RL +125

 

[Yanks]

Ron Raymond

Bonus Play

When ANY MLB Team played as a Home team (MIL) - During the month of June - After a non conference game - Vs Non Division Opponent - Coming off a 1 run lost - Coming off a 6 Game Road Trip - Coming off vs. Right handed pitcher; the UNDER is 15-1-1 for the Home Team (MILWAUKEE) in this role since 1997

MIL / MIN Under 9

 

[Yanks]

DOC

Bonus Play

You have the Dream who have revenge against the Sky from an earlier season loss this month. The Dream lost 73-81 in a game that was set at the Sky -4 and the total at 148. The Sky were able to win one at home while the game went over the posted total. Thus, the Dream have revenge today and will likely get it as they come off a tough loss to the Liberty. But, it is tough to go against the side of the Sky as well as they come off back to back losses on the road to the Sun and Washington. Rather, let's take the Over as the Sky's last 3 games have gone over the posted total while the Dream have gone over the posted total the last two games. I look for the Sky to still be an active dog as they come off a couple losses (which leads to overs) while the Dream to have revenge and play well as they too come off a loss. The over is 4-0 for the Sky after an ATS loss and the Overi s 4-0 for the Dream in their last 4 home games.

Take Over between the Chicago Sky @ Atlanta Dream

 

[Yanks]

Freddy Wills

Bonus Play

St. Louis Cardinals vs. New York Mets

Play: St. Louis Cardinals

Today we come back on our MLB POD from yesterday where we had the Cardinals. I'll be going with the Cards again here today as the line has moved since opening as Mets favorites the line has moved to the Cardinals as favorites. I'm liking the line movement relevant to the public %'s.

Along with the match ups here today. The Mets just simply can not continue to produce and win games with their lineup. They will have Fernando Martinez in the lineup playing CF today and he has already proved that he is not ready for the MLB, but the Mets have no choice. Wright has been very good, but his role is going to continue to get bigger and we'll see how he steps up, but I think teams will go away from pitching to him.

Pineiro has a solid start vs. the Mets this year 8IP 6H and 2ER while his counterpart Livan Hernandez pitched awful vs. Cards this year 4.1IP 9H 7ER. Pineiro has pitched well as of late with not much to show for with an 0-3 record in his last 3 starts despite a 3.44ERA. I can't see Omir Santos coming up with another 4-4 night to help the Mets win. Mets bullpen has continued to struggle 7.22 ERA last 10 games along with their 1-6 record in Game 2's Last 7.

Pujols 11-32 vs. Hernandez 3HR
Ankiel 2-3 HR
Duncan 2-3 HR
Should be enough protection to give the Cardinals some run support.

Other than Wright (5-12) nobody has good numbers vs. Pineiro.

Take Cards -115

 

[Yanks]

The Spread

Comp.

Minnesota Twins at Milwaukee Brewers

Minnesota is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Milwaukee

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Minnesota's last 5 games when playing Milwaukee

Milwaukee is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games at home

The total has gone UNDER in 15 of Milwaukee's last 23 games at home

Pick: Minnesota


New York Yankees at Atlanta Braves

NY Yankees are 10-4 SU in their last 14 games when playing Atlanta

The total has gone UNDER in 4 of NY Yankees's last 5 games when playing Atlanta

Atlanta is 3-6 SU in its last 9 games

The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Atlanta's last 6 games

Pick: NY Yankees


San Francisco Giants at Oakland A’s

San Francisco is 5-1 SU in its last 6 games when playing Oakland

Oakland is 1-5 SU in its last 6 games when playing San Francisco

Oakland is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games

Pick: San Francisco

 

[Yanks]

Ben Burns

Today’s Free Pick

Cincinnati Reds @ Toronto Blue Jays

MLB PICK: Over

REASON FOR PICK: Both these starters were solid in their last start. However, neither bring very impressive overall stats to the table. Owings is 1-4 with a poor 4.86 ERA and 1.56 WHIP on the road. Tallet, who is pitching on 3-day's rest, has an ugly 5.71 ERA at home. In his last start here, he gave up eight runs in just 3 1/3 innings. Including that 9-4 loss, the Jays have seen six of their last nine games eclipse the total. Don't be surprised if this one also proves higher-scoring than many are expecting.

Consider the OVER

 

[Yanks]

TV Hotline

Free Tuesday MLB Pick

KC -135 over Houston