Donald J. Trump–Verified account @realDonaldTrump
I wish good luck to all of the Republican candidates that traveled to California to beg for money etc. from the Koch Brothers. Puppets?
Koch Brother's money isn't going to stop Trump:
Latest Poll on RCP taken 7/30 thru 8/2 Trump by a mile
Top 10
Trump 26%
Bush 12%
Walker 11%
Cruz & Huckabee 6%
Carson 5%
Rubio, Paul & Cristie 4%
Kasich 3%
Those numbers are not even close to what will happen.
The Republican Party is desperately trying to get away from people like trump. They don't wanna be the old, white, rich, intolerant party anymore and that's what Trump is. This is not gonna end the way you want it to. If by some miracle he would get thru republican primary....he will get beaten to a pulp in the general.
Your assessment of Trump's chances is based on either ignorance or wishful thinking.
A minor league poster with an imbecilic mind could size up this race for the nomination
as it now stands.
The Monmouth poll found Trump pulling support from all factions of the party.
Trump has a 20-point lead over Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker among Tea Party
supporters, and leads him by 11 points among those who identify as “very
conservative.” Trump has an 8-point lead over Bush, a former Florida governor,
among those who identify as “somewhat conservative,” and also leads Bush by
8 points among those who describe themselves as moderates.
His favorability rating has improved dramatically with 52 percent saying they
have a positive view of Trump, against 35 percent who view him negatively.
Before Trump launched his presidential bid in June, only 20 percent had a positive
view of him, compared to 55 percent who viewed him negatively.
According to the data, Trump has a significant lead in several key groups: voters
on every point on the conservative spectrum favor him, as do voters in both the
over-50 and under-50 age groups and both Republican voters and independent
voters likely to vote Republican.
[h=1]Trump wins by NOT showing up at final warmup before first GOP debate as his rivals give speed-dating performances and squabble without naming him[/h]
.
- Trump, Mike Huckabee and Jim Gilmore decided to skip the final pre-debate warmup in the all-important first primary state
- The Donald crushed the field in yet another poll, taking 26 per cent of GOP primary voters in a Fox News survey published an hour before the event
- He won the night by not showing up, leaving his rivals to squabble without mentioning his name or changing the ranking that will determine Thursday's debate lineup
- Lindsey Graham hammered Hillary Clinton: 'When Bill says "I didn't have sex with that woman," he did!'
- 'And when she tells us, "Trust me! You've got all the emails that you need," we haven't even scratched the surface'
.
New Hampshire voters saw a parade of Republican White House wannabees Monday night at an event styled as a tune-up for Thursday's first debate, and the winner was the polling leader who didn't show up.
Few of the 14 GOP candidates who hit the stage at St. Anselm College in Manchester, either in person or by videolink, brought new or memorable material. And their talking points and one-liners will seem stale three days from now when they utter them in Cleveland, Ohio.
That leaves Donald Trump and Mike Huckabee, two of the field's three no-shows, with all the fresh material when the Fox News/Facebook debate kicks off.
America's eyes won't be on the former Arkansas governor.
The debate will feature only the ten highest-polling Republicans, relegating the others to a second-tier event before the dinner hour. Nothing heard on stage Monday night will change the dynamic of who makes the first team and who is left on the bench.
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Republican Senator Lindsey Graham hammered Hillary Clinton during the Voters First Presidential Forum in Manchester, New Hampshire on August 3, 2015
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PREVIEW OF THURSDAY: 11 GOP candidates fit briefly on one stage, not counting the three senators expected to enter the discussion via videolink from Washington
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'The last person in the world you want to send into the arena with the Russians is Hillary Clinton,' Sen. Lindsey Graham said Monday night in New Hampshire
.
Few of the 14 GOP candidates who hit the stage at St. Anselm College in Manchester, either in person or by videolink, brought new or memorable material. And their talking points and one-liners will seem stale three days from now when they utter them in Cleveland, Ohio.
That leaves Donald Trump and Mike Huckabee, two of the field's three no-shows, with all the fresh material when the Fox News/Facebook debate kicks off.
America's eyes won't be on the former Arkansas governor.
The debate will feature only the ten highest-polling Republicans, relegating the others to a second-tier event before the dinner hour. Nothing heard on stage Monday night will change the dynamic of who makes the first team and who is left on the bench.
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Republican Senator Lindsey Graham hammered Hillary Clinton during the Voters First Presidential Forum in Manchester, New Hampshire on August 3, 2015
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PREVIEW OF THURSDAY: 11 GOP candidates fit briefly on one stage, not counting the three senators expected to enter the discussion via videolink from Washington
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'The last person in the world you want to send into the arena with the Russians is Hillary Clinton,' Sen. Lindsey Graham said Monday night in New Hampshire
.
[h=3]GOP POLL RANKINGS, AUGUST 3[/h]The top-ten-ranked Republican presidential candidates will be invited to the first debate on August 6, using an average of the five most recent national polls as a yardstick.
As of August 3 Fox News, Monmouth University, NBC/WSJ, Quinnipiac University and Rasmussen polls provided the most current snapshot.
An average of those polls yields the following ranked list:
1. Donald Trump – 23.4 per cent
2. Scott Walker – 12.4 per cent
3. Jeb Bush – 12.2 per cent
4. Ted Cruz – 6.6 per cent (tied)
4. Ben Carson – 6.6 per cent (tied)
6. Mike Huckabee – 6.2 per cent
7. Marco Rubio – 5.0 per cent
8. Rand Paul – 4.8 per cent
9. John Kasich – 3.8 per cent
10. Chris Christie – 3.0 per cent
On the outside looking in:
Rick Perry (2.0 per cent), Rick Santorum (1.4 per cent), Bobby Jindal (1.4 per cent), Carly FIorina (1.2 per cent) and Lindsey Graham (0.6 per cent).
George Pataki and Jim GIlmore haven't registered in enough polls to qualify.
.
As of August 3 Fox News, Monmouth University, NBC/WSJ, Quinnipiac University and Rasmussen polls provided the most current snapshot.
An average of those polls yields the following ranked list:
1. Donald Trump – 23.4 per cent
2. Scott Walker – 12.4 per cent
3. Jeb Bush – 12.2 per cent
4. Ted Cruz – 6.6 per cent (tied)
4. Ben Carson – 6.6 per cent (tied)
6. Mike Huckabee – 6.2 per cent
7. Marco Rubio – 5.0 per cent
8. Rand Paul – 4.8 per cent
9. John Kasich – 3.8 per cent
10. Chris Christie – 3.0 per cent
On the outside looking in:
Rick Perry (2.0 per cent), Rick Santorum (1.4 per cent), Bobby Jindal (1.4 per cent), Carly FIorina (1.2 per cent) and Lindsey Graham (0.6 per cent).
George Pataki and Jim GIlmore haven't registered in enough polls to qualify.
.
As of Monday night, with the latest Fox News poll in the books, the anointed group in order includes Trump, Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker, former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, Huckabee, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul, Ohio Gov. John Kasich and New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.
On the outside looking in are former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, former tech CEO Carly Fiorina, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, former New York Gov. George Pataki and former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore
.
Monday night's format was an unusually rushed sprint through two rounds of questions, with each candidate leaping on stage while the rest of the Republicans watched from the front row.
'This was like speed-dating meets the Miss Universe pageant's interview round,' said Linda Katz, an audience member, afterward.'
With no more than four minutes at a time to make memorable impressions, no one stood out.
Not even the avuncular, twang-voiced Graham, who had the live New Hampshire audience in stitches, did himself enough favors to breathe life into his underperforming candidacy.
He has been polling lower than 1 per cent but had the audience at St. Anselm College rapt with jabs at Hillary Clinton, the Democrats' front-runner.
'The last person in the world you want to send into the arena with the Russians is Hillary Clinton,' Graham said during an onstage interview with radio host Jack Heath.
'As to the Clintons, I've been dealing with this crowd for 20 years. I'm fluent in Clinton speak, you want me to translate, Jack?'
'When he says – Bill says – "I didn't have sex with that woman," he did!' Graham jabbed. 'When she says, "I'll tell you about builing the [Keystone] pipeline when I get to be president," [that] means she won't.'
'And when she tells us, "Trust me! You've got all the emails that you need," we haven't even scratched the surface.'
'So I understand this crowd, and I can beat them,' Graham said, 'and if we can't beat them, it doesn't matter.
Graham's take on the 2016 presidential race drew one of them only audible reactions from the audience – a mix of titters and delighted chatter.
He drew an even bigger reaction by outlining his vision for global affairs.
'If I'm president,' he said, 'here's my foreign policy: "A closed fist or an open hand. You choose".'
Fiorina, another chronically underperforming GOP candidate, was the only other Republican to take a shot at Hillary Clinton – but hers was prompted by a question specifically about whether the former secretary of state sees her growing scandals as 'poltical inconveniences.'
'That's what she gives off,' Fiorina said. 'But they are far more than that.'
'She lied about Benghazi,' she said of Clinton. 'They knew it was a purposeful terrorist attack on the anniversary of 9/11.'
'She has lied as well about her server,' the former Hewlett-Packard CEO said, referring to a private home-brew email server that Clinton used while at the State Department instead of an official account that would later make her accountable to Congress and the Freedom Of Information Act.
'These go to the core of her character. ... We have to have a nominee on our side who will throw every punch,' she said. 'Because this is a fight.'
.
On the outside looking in are former Texas Gov. Rick Perry, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal, former tech CEO Carly Fiorina, South Carolina Sen. Lindsey Graham, former New York Gov. George Pataki and former Virginia Gov. Jim Gilmore
.
Monday night's format was an unusually rushed sprint through two rounds of questions, with each candidate leaping on stage while the rest of the Republicans watched from the front row.
'This was like speed-dating meets the Miss Universe pageant's interview round,' said Linda Katz, an audience member, afterward.'
With no more than four minutes at a time to make memorable impressions, no one stood out.
Not even the avuncular, twang-voiced Graham, who had the live New Hampshire audience in stitches, did himself enough favors to breathe life into his underperforming candidacy.
He has been polling lower than 1 per cent but had the audience at St. Anselm College rapt with jabs at Hillary Clinton, the Democrats' front-runner.
'The last person in the world you want to send into the arena with the Russians is Hillary Clinton,' Graham said during an onstage interview with radio host Jack Heath.
'As to the Clintons, I've been dealing with this crowd for 20 years. I'm fluent in Clinton speak, you want me to translate, Jack?'
'When he says – Bill says – "I didn't have sex with that woman," he did!' Graham jabbed. 'When she says, "I'll tell you about builing the [Keystone] pipeline when I get to be president," [that] means she won't.'
'And when she tells us, "Trust me! You've got all the emails that you need," we haven't even scratched the surface.'
'So I understand this crowd, and I can beat them,' Graham said, 'and if we can't beat them, it doesn't matter.
Graham's take on the 2016 presidential race drew one of them only audible reactions from the audience – a mix of titters and delighted chatter.
He drew an even bigger reaction by outlining his vision for global affairs.
'If I'm president,' he said, 'here's my foreign policy: "A closed fist or an open hand. You choose".'
Fiorina, another chronically underperforming GOP candidate, was the only other Republican to take a shot at Hillary Clinton – but hers was prompted by a question specifically about whether the former secretary of state sees her growing scandals as 'poltical inconveniences.'
'That's what she gives off,' Fiorina said. 'But they are far more than that.'
'She lied about Benghazi,' she said of Clinton. 'They knew it was a purposeful terrorist attack on the anniversary of 9/11.'
'She has lied as well about her server,' the former Hewlett-Packard CEO said, referring to a private home-brew email server that Clinton used while at the State Department instead of an official account that would later make her accountable to Congress and the Freedom Of Information Act.
'These go to the core of her character. ... We have to have a nominee on our side who will throw every punch,' she said. 'Because this is a fight.'
.
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YOU CAN'T MAKE ME GO: Donald Trump is one of three no-shows for Monday night's Voters First FOrum in Mnchester, NH, even though he's the GOP front-runner
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'CLINTON-SPEAK': Graham used Bill Clinton's tortured relationship with honesty to tar and feather Hillary, saying that 'When Bill says "I didn't have sex with that woman," he did!'
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JACKHAMMER: Carly FIorina raced through a series of attacks on Hillary Clinton in Manchester on Monday night, saying her email server and the Benghazi scandal will haunt her – and should
The long-shot Fiorina, though, is teetering on the precipice of irrelevance.
Her deputy campaign manager blasted an email to reporters ten days ago, boasting of poll results that put her temporarily near the middle of a growing GOP pack.
.
[h=3]WHOSE LINE WAS IT, ANYWAY?[/h]
Fourteen Republicans made their case to New Hampshire voters on Monday, bringing a mix of memorable moments – some impressive, some not so much:
Jeb Bush: 'My dad is the probably the most perfect man alive, so it’s very hard for me to be critical of him. In fact, I've got a T-shirt that says – uh, at the Jeb Swag Store – that says I'm the, um, I'm the – "My dad's the greatest man alive" If you don’t like it, I’ll take you outside.'
Ben Carson: '50 per cent of America still doesn't know who I am.'
Chris Christie: 'If you have done very well in this country, we need you not to take a Social Security check.'
Ted Cruz: 'If this [Iran] deal goes through, the Obama administration will become the leading global financier of radical Islamic terrorism.'
Carly Fiorina: 'In order to beat Hillary Clinton ... We have to have a nominee on our side who will throw every punch, because this is a fight.'
Lindsey Graham: 'If I'm president, here's my foreign policy: "A closed fist or an open hand; you choose".'
Bobby Jindal: 'Give Bernie Sanders credit. At least he's honest enough to call himself a socialist. Hillary Clinton, President Obama – they're no better. They're just not honest enough.'
John Kasich: 'We need to find out who they [immigrants who have overstayed their visas] are. If they’re law-abiding, god-fearing folks, they’re going to have to pay a penalty towards legalization, and they’ll have to wait.'
George Pataki: 'I will work to get Democrats to support our conservative policies.'
Rand Paul: 'I'm the only Republican leading Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania, and it's because I am different.'
Rick Perry: 'We made it through Jimmy Carter. We'll make it through Barack Obama. Trust me.'
#
Marco Rubio: 'I am not in support of any additional intoxicants being legalized, something like marijuana. ... If it underwent an FDA process and it was truly designed to be used as medicine, not as a way to get high, that's something that I'd be willing to explore.'
Rick Santorum: 'Last time [in 2012], everybody was trying to say we were more conservative than Mitt Romney. This time we’re talking about issues.'
Scott Walker: Whether it’s Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden, I am a new, fresh face.'
.
Fourteen Republicans made their case to New Hampshire voters on Monday, bringing a mix of memorable moments – some impressive, some not so much:
Jeb Bush: 'My dad is the probably the most perfect man alive, so it’s very hard for me to be critical of him. In fact, I've got a T-shirt that says – uh, at the Jeb Swag Store – that says I'm the, um, I'm the – "My dad's the greatest man alive" If you don’t like it, I’ll take you outside.'
Ben Carson: '50 per cent of America still doesn't know who I am.'
Chris Christie: 'If you have done very well in this country, we need you not to take a Social Security check.'
Ted Cruz: 'If this [Iran] deal goes through, the Obama administration will become the leading global financier of radical Islamic terrorism.'
Carly Fiorina: 'In order to beat Hillary Clinton ... We have to have a nominee on our side who will throw every punch, because this is a fight.'
Lindsey Graham: 'If I'm president, here's my foreign policy: "A closed fist or an open hand; you choose".'
Bobby Jindal: 'Give Bernie Sanders credit. At least he's honest enough to call himself a socialist. Hillary Clinton, President Obama – they're no better. They're just not honest enough.'
John Kasich: 'We need to find out who they [immigrants who have overstayed their visas] are. If they’re law-abiding, god-fearing folks, they’re going to have to pay a penalty towards legalization, and they’ll have to wait.'
George Pataki: 'I will work to get Democrats to support our conservative policies.'
Rand Paul: 'I'm the only Republican leading Hillary Clinton in Pennsylvania, and it's because I am different.'
Rick Perry: 'We made it through Jimmy Carter. We'll make it through Barack Obama. Trust me.'
#
Marco Rubio: 'I am not in support of any additional intoxicants being legalized, something like marijuana. ... If it underwent an FDA process and it was truly designed to be used as medicine, not as a way to get high, that's something that I'd be willing to explore.'
Rick Santorum: 'Last time [in 2012], everybody was trying to say we were more conservative than Mitt Romney. This time we’re talking about issues.'
Scott Walker: Whether it’s Hillary Clinton or Joe Biden, I am a new, fresh face.'
.
The long-shot Fiorina, though, is teetering on the precipice of irrelevance.
Her deputy campaign manager blasted an email to reporters ten days ago, boasting of poll results that put her temporarily near the middle of a growing GOP pack.
.'Do you like apples?' Sarah Isgur Flores' email read. 'Well, I'm looking at the last two national polls released ... and Carly is in 7th and 8th place respectively. How do you like them apples.'Weekly college football polls typically bring jubilation from seventh-place rankings, but politicians know it spells trouble.
Fiorina's boasts, in fact, translated to a 4 per cent showing in one poll and just 3 per cent support in the other. By Monday her polling average in the five most recent national surveys was down to just 1.2 per cent.
That won't be good enough for Cleveland. But unlike Thursday's nationally televised debate, the New Hampshrie event didn't have a cut-off for participation.
'It's a great event because it has all the candidates on stage at the same time,' Steve Duprey, New Hampshire's representative to the Republican National Committee, told the Associated Press. 'It treats all candidates equally.'
Except for Trump, Huckabee and Jim Gilmore, that is. They sat it out.
Trump, the real estate development tycoon, has dominated national Republican primary polls in recent weeks, including a Fox News poll released Monday before the Manchester event.
In that survey, Trump scored a 26 per cent showing among self-identified Republican primary voters, a leap of 15 points since the end of June.
Bush registered 15 per cent for second place, and Walker took third with 9 per cent.
Behind that trio, Carson took 7 per cent, Cruz and Huckabee tied at 6 per cent, Rubio and Paul took 5 per cent apiece, and Christie and Kasich each scored 3-percent support.
Three of the four senators participating in Monday's event – Rubio, Cruz and Paul – chimed in via satellite from C-SPAN's Washington studio, so they didn't need to miss a high-profile vote on federal funding for a much-maligned abortion provider.
With those three already participating remotely, Trump will face additional questions about why he couldn't have fit the evening into his schedule.
Just an hour before the 7 p.m. forum began, the Senate failed to muster enough votes to move forward with a GOP-backed bill to strip funding from Planned Parenthood, reviving a debate on social issues that some Republican officials hoped to avoid in 2016.
Planned Parenthood has become a rich target for right-wingers in recent weeks, following a series of video exposes that appear to show its doctors and other officials bartering with biomedical firms for the delivery of organs and other human tissue from aborted fetuses.
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YUKKING IT UP: Graham (2nd left) was put in a joking ood as the candidates entered on Monday night
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NOT ALL THERE: Three Republican senators (seated, L to R), Rand Paul, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, participated Monday night from C-SPAN's studios in Washington, DC
.
Her deputy campaign manager blasted an email to reporters ten days ago, boasting of poll results that put her temporarily near the middle of a growing GOP pack.
.'Do you like apples?' Sarah Isgur Flores' email read. 'Well, I'm looking at the last two national polls released ... and Carly is in 7th and 8th place respectively. How do you like them apples.'Weekly college football polls typically bring jubilation from seventh-place rankings, but politicians know it spells trouble.
Fiorina's boasts, in fact, translated to a 4 per cent showing in one poll and just 3 per cent support in the other. By Monday her polling average in the five most recent national surveys was down to just 1.2 per cent.
That won't be good enough for Cleveland. But unlike Thursday's nationally televised debate, the New Hampshrie event didn't have a cut-off for participation.
'It's a great event because it has all the candidates on stage at the same time,' Steve Duprey, New Hampshire's representative to the Republican National Committee, told the Associated Press. 'It treats all candidates equally.'
Except for Trump, Huckabee and Jim Gilmore, that is. They sat it out.
Trump, the real estate development tycoon, has dominated national Republican primary polls in recent weeks, including a Fox News poll released Monday before the Manchester event.
In that survey, Trump scored a 26 per cent showing among self-identified Republican primary voters, a leap of 15 points since the end of June.
Bush registered 15 per cent for second place, and Walker took third with 9 per cent.
Behind that trio, Carson took 7 per cent, Cruz and Huckabee tied at 6 per cent, Rubio and Paul took 5 per cent apiece, and Christie and Kasich each scored 3-percent support.
Three of the four senators participating in Monday's event – Rubio, Cruz and Paul – chimed in via satellite from C-SPAN's Washington studio, so they didn't need to miss a high-profile vote on federal funding for a much-maligned abortion provider.
With those three already participating remotely, Trump will face additional questions about why he couldn't have fit the evening into his schedule.
Just an hour before the 7 p.m. forum began, the Senate failed to muster enough votes to move forward with a GOP-backed bill to strip funding from Planned Parenthood, reviving a debate on social issues that some Republican officials hoped to avoid in 2016.
Planned Parenthood has become a rich target for right-wingers in recent weeks, following a series of video exposes that appear to show its doctors and other officials bartering with biomedical firms for the delivery of organs and other human tissue from aborted fetuses.
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YUKKING IT UP: Graham (2nd left) was put in a joking ood as the candidates entered on Monday night
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NOT ALL THERE: Three Republican senators (seated, L to R), Rand Paul, Marco Rubio and Ted Cruz, participated Monday night from C-SPAN's studios in Washington, DC
.
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WALK-THROUGH: The candidates' top aides got a private tour of the auditorium and some last-minute instructions on Monday before the Voters First Forum at St. Anselm College
The candidates appeared on stage one at a time Monday night, answering several questions each from Heath.
The questions were based on submissions from newspaper readers in New Hampshire, Iowa and South Carolina.
Immigration and the economy emerged as the most popular topics in the reader submitted questions, said Trent Spiner, executive editor of the New Hampshire Union Leader.
As the candidates took turns on stage, their rivals sat side-by-side in the audience – except the senators joining the event via video.
The format is different from the various forums the candidates have attended this year, when they have given individual speeches and left to speak to the press or greet voters instead of watching each other.
A camera was fixed on the line of candidates in the front row, offering C-SPAN viewers a chance to see how they reacted to their opponents' messages.
One of those camera shots quickly went viral on Twitter. It showed Pataki, the former New York governor, apparently nodding off to sleep.
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BORED: ormer New York Gov. George Pataki (right) was caught on one of C-SPAN's cameras apparently napping during a Republican rival's on-stage interview
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PRESS FRENZY: Reporters, photographers and videographers lined up in the Dana Center for the Humanities, waiting for the audience to file in
.
Scott Walker is broke? How can you be broke and be running for President?
Trump will probably offer him a job as his chauffeur if he tries to get too uppity at the debate
On the financial disclosure forms all these guys have CC debt at 15-20% interest, is that just some BS to say "hey we're just like you" or are they really that stupid?
Trump will probably offer him a job as his chauffeur if he tries to get too uppity at the debate
On the financial disclosure forms all these guys have CC debt at 15-20% interest, is that just some BS to say "hey we're just like you" or are they really that stupid?
Boy, was I wrong about Donald Trump. Here’s why.
By Chris Cillizza August 4 at 10:57 AM
Donald Trump hails a new opinion poll that suggests his presidential campaign is gaining momentum ahead of the first Republican debate. (Reuters)
Donald Trump is now doubling the rest of the Republican field in the average of the last five national polls. And polling out of early states like New Hampshire puts him in the pole position in those places too.
All of which makes having written a piece on June 17 headlined, "Why no one should take Donald Trump seriously, in one very simple chart" that argued why, well, no one should take Donald Trump seriously, pretty embarrassing. Not to mention wrong.
In case your detective work is at "True Detective" season 2 levels -- for non-show watchers, that means not so good -- I am the person who wrote that piece dismissing The Donald as even a semi-serious candidate for the presidency. My reasoning was pretty straightforward: Trump was regarded incredibly negatively by Republican voters. Twenty-three percent of GOP voters had a favorable opinion of Trump in a May Washington Post-ABC News poll, while 65 percent viewed him negatively. Eleven percent of Republicans felt strongly favorably toward Trump; 43 percent felt strongly negatively.
At the time, I wrote this:
And then, opinions about Trump among Republicans totally flipped.
That same Post-ABC poll that showed Trump at 23/65 in his favorable/unfavorable ratings among Republicans in May suddenly revealed an absolutely unprecedented change in Trump's favor in July. In that latter (and later) poll, 57 percent of Republicans viewed Trump favorably, while 40 percent regarded him unfavorably.
That same sort of change was happening in other polls too. In June, a Fox News poll showed that almost six in 10 Republicans (59 percent) would never vote for Trump under any circumstances. In a Fox News survey released Monday night, that number was down to 33 percent. It's not great that one in three Republicans say they would never vote for you. But, it's a whole hell of a lot better than if 60 percent said it.
Why did I miss Trump's appeal so badly? Simply put: I had NEVER EVER seen a reversal in how people perceive a candidate who is as well known as Trump -- much less a reversal in such a short period of time. I based my conclusion that Trump would never be a relevant player in the Republican primary fight on the ideas that once people 1) know you and 2) don't like you, you can't change those twin realities much.
That was 100 percent true. Until Donald Trump proved it (and me) wrong.
Point taken. Never say "never" in politics. Thanks for reminding me of that old adage, Donald.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/08/04/boy-was-i-wrong-about-donald-trump-heres-why/
By Chris Cillizza August 4 at 10:57 AM
Donald Trump hails a new opinion poll that suggests his presidential campaign is gaining momentum ahead of the first Republican debate. (Reuters)
Donald Trump is now doubling the rest of the Republican field in the average of the last five national polls. And polling out of early states like New Hampshire puts him in the pole position in those places too.
All of which makes having written a piece on June 17 headlined, "Why no one should take Donald Trump seriously, in one very simple chart" that argued why, well, no one should take Donald Trump seriously, pretty embarrassing. Not to mention wrong.
In case your detective work is at "True Detective" season 2 levels -- for non-show watchers, that means not so good -- I am the person who wrote that piece dismissing The Donald as even a semi-serious candidate for the presidency. My reasoning was pretty straightforward: Trump was regarded incredibly negatively by Republican voters. Twenty-three percent of GOP voters had a favorable opinion of Trump in a May Washington Post-ABC News poll, while 65 percent viewed him negatively. Eleven percent of Republicans felt strongly favorably toward Trump; 43 percent felt strongly negatively.
At the time, I wrote this:
You cannot and do not win anything when your numbers look like Trump's. I can't say it any more clearly than that. There's nothing you can say or do -- not that Trump would ever even consider going on an image rehabilitation tour -- to change how people feel about you. Republicans know Trump. And they really, really don't like him.
And then, opinions about Trump among Republicans totally flipped.
That same Post-ABC poll that showed Trump at 23/65 in his favorable/unfavorable ratings among Republicans in May suddenly revealed an absolutely unprecedented change in Trump's favor in July. In that latter (and later) poll, 57 percent of Republicans viewed Trump favorably, while 40 percent regarded him unfavorably.
That same sort of change was happening in other polls too. In June, a Fox News poll showed that almost six in 10 Republicans (59 percent) would never vote for Trump under any circumstances. In a Fox News survey released Monday night, that number was down to 33 percent. It's not great that one in three Republicans say they would never vote for you. But, it's a whole hell of a lot better than if 60 percent said it.
Why did I miss Trump's appeal so badly? Simply put: I had NEVER EVER seen a reversal in how people perceive a candidate who is as well known as Trump -- much less a reversal in such a short period of time. I based my conclusion that Trump would never be a relevant player in the Republican primary fight on the ideas that once people 1) know you and 2) don't like you, you can't change those twin realities much.
That was 100 percent true. Until Donald Trump proved it (and me) wrong.
Point taken. Never say "never" in politics. Thanks for reminding me of that old adage, Donald.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/the-fix/wp/2015/08/04/boy-was-i-wrong-about-donald-trump-heres-why/
