Tracking "Number of Innings in which a Run is Scored In" SYSTEM

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Thank's for that Jersey.
Appreciate the work you have put into this system.
Get 'em tonight!

:103631605
 

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very nice, jersey hope you keep crushing i have read everything and undertand they are all 1 unit plays. are you also playing the fade plays and under(9%)plays for half unit or all the same. thanks for your time
 
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candy, yes, I'm also playing the 2 fade plays, and the 3 under9%sides. 14 in all. I really do think in my worst case scenario is that I'll come out 10-4, of course 14-0 is my goal. >)

sparticus, Flat betting only, always moneyline and sides, no runlines. Always 1 unit each, might throw in a small change parlay here and there, but wont include those in the YTD results, so it could be more accurate for most people. I mentioned it before but even though I have 1783 on the line tonight it feels way less stressful and actually more enjoyable, than if I have 300 riding on 1 game.
As long as we keep winning that is :103631605
 

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Thank you JS101 for your reply.I hardly ever bet anything other than flat bets in bases,gl. Thanks for all you do JS101.
 
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Since tonight we are starting with the FADE PLAY, I'll list that in our YTD and take out the ALL OVERS line. I'll leave on the OVERS where the line is 9.5 and higher 2-8-1 -6.55 for accurate accounting, of course:

YTD (6 DAYS)
UNDERS 16-4-1 80% +11.80
OVERS where line is 9 or less 9-2 82% +6.80
OVERS where line is 9.5 or higher 2-8-1 20% -6.55
OVERS where the line is 9.5 or higher FADE PLAY 0-0 0.00
9% and Up Plays 14-2 88% +12.94
6% and Up Plays 15-4 79% +10.47
Overall 42-18-2 70% +22.52
 
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No problem guys, plenty of money to be made :>

I had a nice run in my other thread with the Marlins AScore in
1st Inning Prop YES prop, had very good success with it, then it hit the inevitable bad streak(lost 6 in a row), so stopped playing that and was looking at trying a stat that was different, yet could still provide a somewhat accurate offensive stat that was different then the normal average runs per game approach.

I am also still looking into the "Make your own -1 line" approach, but only for certain situations where you think your team will win by 2 or more. You guys might already know how it works, but its where you bet both the moneyline and runline. If you like the favorite and it wins by 1 its a push, whereis if you took -1.5 you'd of lost. But if they win by 2 or more you made yourself a better line and win more than just the regular moneyline.
 

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I was already on a couple of your games so FUCK IT IM PLAYIN YOUR WHOLE CARD !!!!!!!!! LETS GO $$$$$$$@):):smoking:
 

abc

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I had a nice run in my other thread with the Marlins AScore in 1st Inning Prop YES prop, had very good success with it, then it hit the inevitable bad streak(lost 6 in a row), so stopped playing that and was looking at trying a stat that was different, yet could still provide a somewhat accurate offensive stat that was different then the normal average runs per game approach.

I agree. It's a great idea. I think looking how consistent the team is on scoring each inning is a better idea of how well the teams score. The only thing that I want to do is try tracking the set we have now and also a rolling set tracking the last 14-15 days. I wonder if more recent data is better than keeping all the data. Finding that sweet spot time slot might be the key. Just a thought.
 

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I Know this might be a dumb Question Jersey But i just wont to make sure im doing this the right way > How do you get your 6% plays ???? thanks @):) :howdy: d1g1t NICE DAY I CANT WAIT TO SEE TOMORROWS PLAYS :cripwalk:Thanks for postin
 

abc

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Looks like the new average is 0.26. Will this affect your numbers at all? Going to shift all required numbers by .01? The numbers now are working pretty well, so I don't know if you want to adjust them.

Another positive night. Very cool! Let's keep it going.
 
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It could of been a lot better, I really hope you guys benefited from the better lines in that Balt and the Boston games and got the pushes, those will count as losses in my stats, as I posted those lines from last night.

So I finished 7-6-1 +.72

Still very disappointed but not a losing day and the winning streak continues :>)

The percentage is the difference between the 2 teams percentages, 6% plays is where the difference is 6.00% through 8.99%. 9% plays are the 9% and above ones.

Its all based on the number of times a team has scored in individual innings regardless of how many runs they scored, divided by total innings where they batted in a certain time frame. I'm currently using stats from 1 June only, but will make a change shortly, most likely a recurring stat where I will only use the last X amount of games or innings played.

Sorry about those 2 FADE Plays, I get 2 losses , hopefully most went 1-1 with that line change. I might drop using the OVERS when the line is more than 9 completely.

Hoepfully everyone made some cash tonight.
 

abc

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It could of been a lot better, I really hope you guys benefited from the better lines in that Balt and the Boston games and got the pushes, those will count as losses in my stats, as I posted those lines from last night.

So I finished 7-6-1 +.72

Still very disappointed but not a losing day and the winning streak continues :>)

Sorry about those 2 FADE Plays, I get 2 losses , hopefully most went 1-1 with that line change. I might drop using the OVERS when the line is more than 9 completely.

Hoepfully everyone made some cash tonight.

Hey, positive is positive. That also tells you that the system is working. It's not gonna be perfect everytime, but the total record is nice.

As for the fade plays, they were 2 losses for me, also. I'm tracking these plays along side you and jumped on it once it came out. I would keep tracking to see how they do. I see 3 ML plays for tomorrow using the magic 9%. I'm working on the O/U right now.
 

abc

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I'm seeing 4 Unders, 1 Over, and 3 MLs. I went ahead and included TAM vs. COL O9.5 because they are the current top 2 on the list so I have 2 Overs I'm betting. I'm waiting on the line for the CWS/CUB game.
 
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DAY 7 RESULTS:
6/16 PLAYS


SD/SEA UNDER 7 -120 WINNER
CIN/ATL UNDER 8 -105 LOST
KC/ARI UNDER 8.5 -110 WINNER
OAK/LOS UNDER 7.5 -125 LOST
BAL/NYM UNDER 9.5 -105 LOST
BOS/FLA UNDER 9.5 -105 (This is an Over FADE PLAY) LOST
TB/COL UNDER 10 EV (This is an Over FADE PLAY) LOST

CLE/MIL OVER 9 EV WINNER
LA ANGELS/SF OVER 9 -115 PUSH
TOR/PHILLY OVER 9 EV WINNER
NYY (12%) -350 WINNER
LA ANGELS (8%) +112 WINNER
SEA (7%) -148 WINNER
HOU (6%) +127 LOST

DAY 7 RESULTS
UNDERS 2-3 -1.35
OVERS where line is 9 or less 2-0-1 +2.00
OVERS where line is 9.5 or higher 0-0 0.00
OVERS where the line is 9.5 or higher FADE PLAY 0-2 -2.05
9% and Up Plays 1-0 +1.00
6% and Up Plays 2-1 +1.12
Overall 7-6-1 +.72



YTD (7 DAYS)
UNDERS 18-7-1 72% +10.45
OVERS where line is 9 or less 11-2-1 85% +8.80
OVERS where line is 9.5 or higher 2-8-1 20% -6.55
OVERS where the line is 9.5 or higher FADE PLAY 0-2 0% -2.05
9% and Up Plays 15-2 88% +13.94
6% and Up Plays 17-5 77% +11.59
Overall 49-24-2 67% +23.24

:toast:
 

abc

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It looks like the Overs 9 or less and the 9% and Up plays are money. I might start laying small parlays on the overs and MLs. I already MLed the 3 plays for tomorrow. The odds are in our favor. I got Yankees -205, Angels +144, and Sea +110 for +662.4. Laid small change on the parlay, but I feel confident in winning.
 
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I'm seeing 4 Unders, 1 Over, and 3 MLs. I went ahead and included TAM vs. COL O9.5 because they are the current top 2 on the list so I have 2 Overs I'm betting. I'm waiting on the line for the CWS/CUB game.

Good stuff abc, I'm doing the picks now, I see you lost faith in that 0-2 FADE Plays, me too, I'm just having terribly bad luck with the Overs, otherwise I'd really be kicking even more ass.
!~~~!
 

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