Tracking "Number of Innings in which a Run is Scored In" SYSTEM

[JerseyShop101]

Four days in and I'm very happy with the results so far, especially on the UNDERS and 9% and Higher PLAYS (A combined 23-5-1 82% +18.79).

Doing some fine tuning and making a change on my System OVER Plays, I will only take the OVER if the line is 9 or less. In my Overs where the line was 9 or less it went 5-2 (where the line was 9.5 and higher it went a terrible 2-8-1). I'll have to think about fading the 9.5s and up, but I will wait and see.

Colorado is still tearing it up, scoring in 33 of their last 88 innings, an incredible 38%!

YTD (4 DAYS)
UNDERS 13-3-1 81% +9.85
OVERS where line is 9 or less 5-2 71% +2.80
OVERS where line is 9.5 or higher 2-8-1 20% -6.55
All OVERS 7-10-1 41% -3.75
9% and Up Plays 10-2 83% +8.94
6% and Up Plays 11-4 73% +6.47
Overall 31-17-2 65% +12.57

Stats through 6/13:

#Scored Inn Tot Innings %
BAL 17 97 0.18
WAS 19 101 0.19
SDG 20 106 0.19
KAN 19 98 0.19
LOS 20 101 0.20
CIN 24 118 0.20
CUB 22 106 0.21

OAK 25 116 0.22
TEX 21 97 0.22
ATL 24 109 0.22
CWS 28 126 0.22
DET 27 118 0.23
MIL 25 107 0.23
PIT 27 113 0.24
SFO 26 106 0.25
MIN 25 99 0.25
SEA 25 99 0.25
HOU 30 114 0.26
ARI 28 106 0.26
STL 32 117 0.27
TOR 28 99 0.28
CLE 28 99 0.28

NYM 29 101 0.29
FLA 34 114 0.30
BOS 30 100 0.30
PHI 33 109 0.30
NYY 33 107 0.31
TAM 32 96 0.33
LAA 33 97 0.34
COL 33 88 0.38
797 3164 0.25

DAY 5
6/14 PLAYS:

BAL/ATL UNDER 9 -105
KC/CINN UNDER 8.5 -120 BEST BET
LOS DODGERS/TEX UNDER 9.5 -115
CUBS/MINN UNDER 8 -105

NYM/NYY OVER 9 -110 BEST BET
FLA/TOR OVER 8.5 -110
BOS/PHILLY OVER 8.5 -120 BEST BET

* COL/SEA LINE would be an OVER Play but line is more than 9 (line is 10) therefore a NO PLAY. Posting here to track to see if these plays are a good FADE to take the UNDER. (2-8-1)

LA ANGELS (15%) -200
TAMPA BAY (14%) -270
COLORADO (13%) -135

I hate laying this large juice, but it is a system play and they should win easily.

LETS MAKE SOME MONEY!!!!

:toast:

 

[Green17]

J.S.

Thanks for some excellent info.

On the very high %-age plays, have you tracked using the RL (-1.5) instead of the ML? Maybe this gets the high juice factor eliminated.

Thanks....and GL.

 

[meaculpa]

Are you planning on tracking the Best Bets btw? It might be interesting to know whether its best to flat-bet or bet those a little bit bigger.

Bol with the system

 

[WorldNumberOne]

nice success so far...

wont this " system " basically have you play every game in a series where it says over / under or the has 1 team a few % points ahead of the other ?

i would think if it produced 2 winners in the first 2 games of a series , i would shut it down and not worry about the 3rd game .

how often is there a sweep by 1 team or a sweep of 1 side of the total ?

 

[JerseyShop101]

J.S.

Thanks for some excellent info.

On the very high %-age plays, have you tracked using the RL (-1.5) instead of the ML? Maybe this gets the high juice factor eliminated.

Thanks....and GL.

I haven't, but that is a very good point especially if our team is the road team. LAA and TB are home today, so I'll just take them ML, hope I don't get bit today but I think we'll be ok.

 

[JerseyShop101]

Are you planning on tracking the Best Bets btw? It might be interesting to know whether its best to flat-bet or bet those a little bit bigger.

Bol with the system

I'm currently just flat betting all plays. (I'm actually more comfortable doing that right now and actually is less stressful, I'm getting really confident in these plays even though its very new.

For those that don't know, the Best Bets for the Unders are when both teams are .21 or less, for the Overs its when both teams are .29 or more. Best Bets are only 5-4, moreso because of the bad Overs where the line is 9.5 or higher, not playing those, and might decide to fade them.

 

[JerseyShop101]

nice success so far...

wont this " system " basically have you play every game in a series where it says over / under or the has 1 team a few % points ahead of the other ?

i would think if it produced 2 winners in the first 2 games of a series , i would shut it down and not worry about the 3rd game .

how often is there a sweep by 1 team or a sweep of 1 side of the total ?

Another good point, I update the stats after each game, and with some of the percentages not changing much at all it could and will result in taking the same side for some complete series. And like you said grabbing the 1st 2 and be happy and move on to the next series could be a good strategy. But in the meantime, I'm going to stick with it, if results are subpar or not as profitable, I will make an adjustment.

Thanks.

 

[JerseyShop101]

Four days in and I'm very happy with the results so far, especially on the UNDERS and 9% and Higher PLAYS (A combined 23-5-1 82% +18.79).

Doing some fine tuning and making a change on my System OVER Plays, I will only take the OVER if the line is 9 or less. In my Overs where the line was 9 or less it went 5-2 (where the line was 9.5 and higher it went a terrible 2-8-1). I'll have to think about fading the 9.5s and up, but I will wait and see.

Colorado is still tearing it up, scoring in 33 of their last 88 innings, an incredible 38%!

YTD (4 DAYS)
UNDERS 13-3-1 81% +9.85
OVERS where line is 9 or less 5-2 71% +2.80
OVERS where line is 9.5 or higher 2-8-1 20% -6.55
All OVERS 7-10-1 41% -3.75
9% and Up Plays 10-2 83% +8.94
6% and Up Plays 11-4 73% +6.47
Overall 31-17-2 65% +12.57

Stats through 6/13:

#Scored Inn Tot Innings %
BAL 17 97 0.18
WAS 19 101 0.19
SDG 20 106 0.19
KAN 19 98 0.19
LOS 20 101 0.20
CIN 24 118 0.20
CUB 22 106 0.21

OAK 25 116 0.22
TEX 21 97 0.22
ATL 24 109 0.22
CWS 28 126 0.22
DET 27 118 0.23
MIL 25 107 0.23
PIT 27 113 0.24
SFO 26 106 0.25
MIN 25 99 0.25
SEA 25 99 0.25
HOU 30 114 0.26
ARI 28 106 0.26
STL 32 117 0.27
TOR 28 99 0.28
CLE 28 99 0.28

NYM 29 101 0.29
FLA 34 114 0.30
BOS 30 100 0.30
PHI 33 109 0.30
NYY 33 107 0.31
TAM 32 96 0.33
LAA 33 97 0.34
COL 33 88 0.38
797 3164 0.25


DAY 5
6/14 PLAYS:

BAL/ATL UNDER 9 -105 LOST
KC/CINN UNDER 8.5 -120 BEST BET WINNER
LOS DODGERS/TEX UNDER 9.5 -115
CUBS/MINN UNDER 8 -105 WINNER

NYM/NYY OVER 9 -110 BEST BET WINNER
FLA/TOR OVER 8.5 -110 WINNER
BOS/PHILLY OVER 8.5 -120 BEST BETWINNER

* COL/SEA LINE would be an OVER Play but line is more than 9 (line is 10) therefore a NO PLAY. Posting here to track to see if these plays are a good FADE to take the UNDER. (2-8-1)

LA ANGELS (15%) -200
TAMPA BAY (14%) -270 WINNER
COLORADO (13%) -135

I hate laying this large juice, but it is a system play and they should win easily.

LETS MAKE SOME MONEY!!!!

:toast:

6-1 with 3 pending and currently winning!!

I LOVE THIS SYSTEM!!

 

[Michelangelo]

Wow! Tremendous JS.

Still a relatively short price for Colorado, the hottest team in MLB.

 

[JerseyShop101]

They are just Awesome! They already scored in 3 of their first 5 innings. Up and down their lineup they can and do make things happen!

 

[NumberFreak]

For those that don't know, the Best Bets for the Unders are when both teams are .21 or less, for the Overs its when both teams are .29 or more. Best Bets are only 5-4, moreso because of the bad Overs where the line is 9.5 or higher, not playing those, and might decide to fade them.

Great start to your system. One thing that's bothering me though. How did you come up with your best bets of .21 for the under and .29 for the over? Is it referenced off of the .25 league average you're showing? If so, I think your totals results are going to gradually get more pronounced. Your unders are going to get even better but your overs are going to get worse.

 

[JerseyShop101]

Great start to your system. One thing that's bothering me though. How did you come up with your best bets of .21 for the under and .29 for the over? Is it referenced off of the .25 league average you're showing? If so, I think your totals results are going to gradually get more pronounced. Your unders are going to get even better but your overs are going to get worse.

I figured 4% off of the average 25% is a good percentage to start with, as the league average changes. I will adjust mine also. I am only playing the overs when the .29s and up are playing .22s and up and the line is 9 or less, as I referenced above, COL fit that but the line was 10 therefore was a NO PLAY, but I could off faded it, as that record is now 2-9-1.

:toast:

 

[JerseyShop101]

DAY 5 A GREAT 9-1 DAY!!!
June 14th Plays:
UNDERS 3-1 +1.95
OVERS where line is 9 or less 3-0 +3.00
9% and Up Plays 3-0 +3.00
Overall 9-1 +7.95

YTD (5 DAYS)
UNDERS 16-4-1 80% +11.80
OVERS where line is 9 or less 8-2 80% +5.80
OVERS where line is 9.5 or higher 2-8-1 20% -6.55
All OVERS 10-10-1 50% -0.75
9% and Up Plays 13-2 87% +11.94
6% and Up Plays 14-4 78% +9.47
Overall 40-18-2 69% +20.52

:toast:

 

[NumberFreak]

I figured 4% off of the average 25% is a good percentage to start with, as the league average changes. I will adjust mine also. I am only playing the overs when the .29s and up are playing .22s and up and the line is 9 or less, as I referenced above, COL fit that but the line was 10 therefore was a NO PLAY, but I could off faded it, as that record is now 2-9-1.

:toast:

Since you're letting the league average develop as you go rather than finding it out beforehand, maybe I can save you some time and tell you it is around 30%. This is what I was referring to when I said your unders would vastly outperform the overs, because your .21 for unders is really 8-9% below the average (not 4%) and your .29 for overs is actually BELOW the league average instead of ABOVE, therefore not providing you any legitimate value at all.

Hope this helps and best of luck to you.

 

[JerseyShop101]

Since you're letting the league average develop as you go rather than finding it out beforehand, maybe I can save you some time and tell you it is around 30%. This is what I was referring to when I said your unders would vastly outperform the overs, because your .21 for unders is really 8-9% below the average (not 4%) and your .29 for overs is actually BELOW the league average instead of ABOVE, therefore not providing you any legitimate value at all.

Hope this helps and best of luck to you.

I like using the more current stats from 1 June, which currently is 25% instead of the whole season average of 30%. I will adjust as I go. My purpose is to take advantage of the teams more recent scoring stats and not for the whole season.

Thanks though.

:toast:

 

[hustlehard]

nice to see my idea to use the system for totals is working out so well.. best of luck in the future my man

 

[abc]

Very nice so far! Following this system.

 

[JerseyShop101]

nice to see my idea to use the system for totals is working out so well.. best of luck in the future my man

Totals was a good idea, just hope it continues. Thank you, hope we all make money and beat the books. (<)<

 

[JerseyShop101]

Stats 6/1 through 6/14:


#Scored Inn Tot Innings %
SDG 20 115 0.17
WAS 21 110 0.19
CIN 25 127 0.20
KAN 22 106 0.21
OAK 26 125 0.21
LOS 23 110 0.21
BAL 22 105 0.21

TEX 23 106 0.22
CUB 25 115 0.22
ATL 26 118 0.22
DET 29 127 0.23
CWS 31 135 0.23
PIT 29 121 0.24
SEA 26 108 0.24
MIL 29 116 0.25
MIN 27 108 0.25
STL 32 126 0.25
SFO 29 114 0.25
ARI 30 115 0.26
NYM 29 110 0.26
TOR 29 108 0.27
HOU 34 123 0.28
CLE 30 107 0.28
FLA 35 123 0.28

BOS 33 109 0.30
PHI 36 117 0.31
NYY 36 115 0.31
TAM 35 104 0.34
LAA 37 105 0.35
COL 36 96 0.38
865 3424 0.25

DAY 6
PLAYS for 6/15:

LA ANGELS/SF OVER 8.5 EV

LA ANGELS 10% -122



YTD (5 DAYS)
UNDERS 16-4-1 80% +11.80
OVERS where line is 9 or less 8-2 80% +5.80
OVERS where line is 9.5 or higher 2-8-1 20% -6.55
All OVERS 10-10-1 50% -0.75
9% and Up Plays 13-2 87% +11.94
6% and Up Plays 14-4 78% +9.47
Overall 40-18-2 69% +20.52


:toast:

 

[RDC-3]

thanks for the system......................do u have any records for the sides and totals prior to posting here?I will attempt to backtest if u havent just to see if this has held up over time.