Hey Jersey, I reread through this thread, but I'm still a little confused on the over under. I get that if you have a team with 0.29 or over and a team with 0.21 or over, then you play the over. I couldn't see what you figured as your under play. Could you please explain the under to me again? Thanks and gl tomorrow!
EDIT: Forgot that you also mentioned only playing the Over if it's 9 or less.
EDIT: Forgot that you also mentioned only playing the Over if it's 9 or less.
The Under will be a PLAY if a team that is .21 or less is playing a team that is .28 or less.
The Over will be a PLAY* if a team that is .29 or higher is playing a team
that is .22 or higher. * But only if the line is 9 or less. If the line is 9.5 or higher I am contemplating fading and taking the Under (its 2-9-1 which is why)
The purpose of the .21 and .28 for the Under and the .29 and .22 for the Over is so that I can ensure that I don't make a TOTALs play on a lower scoring team (.21 or less) playing a higher scoring team (.29 or higher).
:toast:
good shit especially in six days. i will look at those because i dont like to bet so many games. 19 games in six days is not bad at all.
I used to feel the same way, make a smaller amount of plays, but read the threads from Iceman and others here, where more can be better financially.
I know you already know this, but If you played 100 sides for $100 at
-110 and hit 53% you would be: 5300 - 5170= 130 profit
At 1000 sides its 1300 profit.
I understand on an NFL weekend your 3 main choices could go 3-0 and the others go 5-8, and then you'd wish yould stick to a smaller amount of plays. But if we could just hit at 53% at -110, more is better. This is where the reduced juice and overnight lines really come into play, as it really could be the difference between winning or losing.
No cutoff for the Under yet, as I've only had 1 Play that was 7.5 which was on June 13th- (OAK/SF UNDER 7.5 -120 WINNER SF 5-2).
I see that OAK/LA game as 7 now, same as SEA/SD, that is extremely low, will have to check into it some more. I can honestly say that I have never ever taken an under that was 7 or lower before.
Updated Stats 1-15 June:
#Scored Inn Tot Innings %
SDG 20 115 0.17
WAS 21 110 0.19
CIN 25 127 0.20
KAN 22 106 0.21
OAK 26 125 0.21
LOS 23 110 0.21
BAL 22 105 0.21
TEX 23 106 0.22
CUB 25 115 0.22
ATL 26 118 0.22
DET 29 127 0.23
CWS 31 135 0.23
PIT 29 121 0.24
SEA 26 108 0.24
MIN 27 108 0.25
STL 32 126 0.25
ARI 30 115 0.26
NYM 29 110 0.26
SFO 33 123 0.27
TOR 29 108 0.27
HOU 34 123 0.28
MIL 35 125 0.28
FLA 35 123 0.28
CLE 34 116 0.29
BOS 33 109 0.30
PHI 36 117 0.31
NYY 36 115 0.31
TAM 35 104 0.34
LAA 40 114 0.35
COL 36 96 0.38
882 3460 0.25
DAY 7
6/16 PLAYS
SD/SEA UNDER 7 -120
CIN/ATL UNDER 8 -105
KC/ARI UNDER 8.5 -110
OAK/LOS UNDER 7.5 -125
BAL/NYM UNDER 9.5 -105
CLE/MIL OVER 9 EV LA ANGELS/SF line not out Yet - Take UNDER if line is 9.5 or more (Over FADE PLAY), if not take Over
TOR/PHILLY OVER 9 EV
BOS/FLA UNDER 9.5 -105 (This is an Over FADE PLAY)
TB/COL UNDER 10 EV (This is an Over FADE PLAY)
NYY (12%) -350 (This must be the biggest line of the year)
LA ANGELS (8%) LINE NOT OUT YET
SEA (7%) -148
HOU (6%) +127
Going to still take those low Unders.
This is the 1st 2 or 3 Over FADE Plays (hopefully that record of 2-9-1 continues)
I will give the 6% and ups (1-2) a shot today to get in the plus.
:toast:
#Scored Inn Tot Innings %
SDG 20 115 0.17
WAS 21 110 0.19
CIN 25 127 0.20
KAN 22 106 0.21
OAK 26 125 0.21
LOS 23 110 0.21
BAL 22 105 0.21
TEX 23 106 0.22
CUB 25 115 0.22
ATL 26 118 0.22
DET 29 127 0.23
CWS 31 135 0.23
PIT 29 121 0.24
SEA 26 108 0.24
MIN 27 108 0.25
STL 32 126 0.25
ARI 30 115 0.26
NYM 29 110 0.26
SFO 33 123 0.27
TOR 29 108 0.27
HOU 34 123 0.28
MIL 35 125 0.28
FLA 35 123 0.28
CLE 34 116 0.29
BOS 33 109 0.30
PHI 36 117 0.31
NYY 36 115 0.31
TAM 35 104 0.34
LAA 40 114 0.35
COL 36 96 0.38
882 3460 0.25
DAY 7
6/16 PLAYS
SD/SEA UNDER 7 -120
CIN/ATL UNDER 8 -105
KC/ARI UNDER 8.5 -110
OAK/LOS UNDER 7.5 -125
BAL/NYM UNDER 9.5 -105
CLE/MIL OVER 9 EV LA ANGELS/SF line not out Yet - Take UNDER if line is 9.5 or more (Over FADE PLAY), if not take Over
TOR/PHILLY OVER 9 EV
BOS/FLA UNDER 9.5 -105 (This is an Over FADE PLAY)
TB/COL UNDER 10 EV (This is an Over FADE PLAY)
NYY (12%) -350 (This must be the biggest line of the year)
LA ANGELS (8%) LINE NOT OUT YET
SEA (7%) -148
HOU (6%) +127
Going to still take those low Unders.
This is the 1st 2 or 3 Over FADE Plays (hopefully that record of 2-9-1 continues)
I will give the 6% and ups (1-2) a shot today to get in the plus.
:toast:
I didn't play the Yankees even though they're 12% higher because -350 is way too high. I didn't play the other two plays either, because they were uner 9% and we don't like that. 
I'm also waiting on the Angels line right there with you.
It looks like 8.5 will be our number. LVSC has released this number. At 8.5, I'll add that as an over.
I'm also waiting on the Angels line right there with you.It looks like 8.5 will be our number. LVSC has released this number. At 8.5, I'll add that as an over.
I didn't play the Yankees even though they're 12% higher because -350 is way too high. I didn't play the other two plays either, because they were uner 9% and we don't like that.
It looks like 8.5 will be our number. LVSC has released this number. At 8.5, I'll add that as an over.
Sound good, I agree that NYY line is way high but WASH couldn't beat a girl scouts ball team right now, Yanks will have batting practice, like the line suggests. I'm giving the 3 under 9% games a chance, if they don't go at least 2-1, I'll drop playing those too.
The good thing with a lot of plays like these 14 for me is that I feel less stressed, even if it starts out bad they are only 1 unit each and I can make it back up with the other games.
I figured I'd just put it into 7 very solid bets and try those 2 fades. Those 6-8.99% scare me a little. It's gambling though so you can't win if you don't play. I may lay down a ML parlay for small on those 4 and straight bet them half the usual. I did half on those fade bets til we get a day or two of testing. We got a lot of baseball to follow tomorrow. Let's get some winners!!
No, we fade those 2 and here's why:
BOS/FLA UNDER 9.5 -105 (This is an Over FADE PLAY)
TB/COL UNDER 10 EV (This is an Over FADE PLAY)
The Over will be a PLAY* if a team that is .29 or higher is playing a team
that is .22 or higher. * But only if the line is 9 or less. If the line is 9.5 or higher I am contemplating fading and taking the Under (its 2-9-1 which is why)
I am 2-8-1 -6.55 when it meets this criteria, and it lost again the other day in the COL game, making it 2-9-1, so therefore its time to fade it when the line is 9.5 or more.
:toast:
DAY 7
6/16 PLAYS
SD/SEA UNDER 7 -120
CIN/ATL UNDER 8 -105
KC/ARI UNDER 8.5 -110
OAK/LOS UNDER 7.5 -125
BAL/NYM UNDER 9.5 -105
BOS/FLA UNDER 9.5 -105 (This is an Over FADE PLAY)
TB/COL UNDER 10 EV (This is an Over FADE PLAY)
CLE/MIL OVER 9 EV
LA ANGELS/SF OVER 9 -115
TOR/PHILLY OVER 9 EV
NYY (12%) -350
LA ANGELS (8%) +112
SEA (7%) -148
HOU (6%) +127
Ok, we have 7 UNDERS, 3 OVERS, 4 SIDES.
Lets make some MONEY!!!
:toast:
6/16 PLAYS
SD/SEA UNDER 7 -120
CIN/ATL UNDER 8 -105
KC/ARI UNDER 8.5 -110
OAK/LOS UNDER 7.5 -125
BAL/NYM UNDER 9.5 -105
BOS/FLA UNDER 9.5 -105 (This is an Over FADE PLAY)
TB/COL UNDER 10 EV (This is an Over FADE PLAY)
CLE/MIL OVER 9 EV
LA ANGELS/SF OVER 9 -115
TOR/PHILLY OVER 9 EV
NYY (12%) -350
LA ANGELS (8%) +112
SEA (7%) -148
HOU (6%) +127
Ok, we have 7 UNDERS, 3 OVERS, 4 SIDES.
Lets make some MONEY!!!
:toast:
