Marquette is top 25 in both scoring offense and field goal percentage, plus has only seen two totals lower than this all season — both overs. On the other side, SHU was just one-point shy of the number in its last contest against Xavier after hitting the over in its previous matchup with Providence. The total has gone over in five of Marquette’s last six games, seven of its last eight games played on a Tuesday and each of its last five played on a Tuesday at home.
Both teams love to play at a slow pace. They match up against each other very well, so if you like to take the risk, bet on any team to win by five or fewer points to get some nice wages. I lean Fresno State because of their defense, and the Bulldogs will enjoy strong support from the stands.
The Buffaloes lack height, but they are aggressive on the defensive side of the ball and control the glass very well. Colorado is 12-3-1 ATS in its last 16 games against Stanford and 6-2 ATS in its last eight road tilts versus the Cardinal.
Covering a 8.5 point spread won’t be an easy task, but I have to take the Bruins. The Cougars’ interior defense has been awful thus far, and the hosts will keep it close only if they enjoy a wonderful shooting night. The Bruins possess great depth and defend the 3-point line well. Also, they are a top-10 team in the country in turnover percentage on both sides of the court. Washington State is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games overall and 1-8 ATS in its previous nine contests in the conference play. UCLA is 4-2 ATS in its last six contests overall.
There's a lot to like about the Hokies, but how will they respond if they fall behind early? They've played just two road games, at Charleston and Boston College, and lost both times. With upcoming road matchups versus Syracuse, Virginia, and Clemson, it's time for VA Tech to figure it out on the road. They might have to go without Cattoor (9.6 PPG), who is questionable after leaving the BC game with a left forearm injury. With that said, I'll side with the home team in this ACC matchup.
1k Utah State -12 (WON)
Utah State is the 8th highest scoring team, the best shooting team from three-point range, and plays at the 57th fastest pace in the nation. They are truly a team that likes to run and gun. But run and gun would not describe a Fresno State team that is one of the lowest-scoring teams in the country. But they are also a top-30 defensive team, and a squad that ranks No. 318 in tempo. The difference here is Utah State can play defense, too, ranking No. 83 in defensive efficiency. Playing at home, they'll control the tempo enough to get the win and cover in a hard-fought conference battle.
Valpo hasn't won a conference game yet, but they played well on the road Thursday, against a very good Drake team that lost to Indiana State by only two points this season. Indiana State is clearly the better team, but playing on the road in an early New Year's Day game against a desperate conference foe won't be easy. Valpo has beat Indiana State in three straight head-to-head meetings, and I will back them to at least cover here.
1k SMU -8 (BIG WIN)
SMU is the far superior team. Plus, despite their sub-.500 record, they have played a tough nonconference schedule, so they should be battle-tested coming into AAC. In addition, they will gain a lot of momentum from a strong showing in the Hawaii tournament, which they almost won, losing on a buzzer-beater. Finally, playing on a holiday is never easy, especially after a long layoff, so give a little added edge here to the home team.
Over their last five home games the Boilermakers played favorites with an averaged spread of -24.7 per game. They didn’t hit in any, pushing one and are 1-5-1 ATS at home overall on the year. Rutgers are 1-1 ATS on the road and 2-0 ATS in conference with their lone Big Ten loss coming by just a point against No. 25 Ohio State. In fact, all of the Scarlet Knights losses have come by an average of four points.
They scrape, claw and battle and their defense is as good as advertised. They held a top ten team (Indiana) to just 48 points! And the Boilermaker juggernaut can surely be slowed as they have scored in the 60s two times in their last four games. They also needed overtime to escape Nebraska with a win.
Edey versus Omoruyi will be a very fun matchup and those two will do what they do regardless. I like Rutgers rotation to at least keep things close for us here, especially with their intense defense.
1k New Mexico -4 (PUSH) Even if the Bulldogs slow down the Lobos, I highly doubt their chances to execute well on the offensive end. The Lobos are capable of playing tough defense, and the Bulldogs lack quality scoring options. Fresno State is one of the worst shooting teams in the country, so I’m backing New Mexico to extend its perfect season and cover a 4 point spread.
1k Pittsburgh +5 (WON SU)
The Cavaliers have only covered the spread once in their last eight games, so I have no interest in backing them right now. Pittsburgh has been a completely different story, covering the spread in nine straight games. The Panthers are coming off a solid win over a ranked team, giving them some additional momentum coming into this matchup. They are going to be playing in front of a raucous crowd, so I am thrilled to back them as home underdogs. Virginia has only played three true road games this season, with one of them being a loss at Miami.
1k San Jose State +10 (WON) The Broncos will be fired up to snap their two-game skid and earn their first victory in the conference play. Boise State has dominated San Jose State over the last few years, going 10-0 SU and 7-3 ATS in their last ten encounters, and I’m expecting the Broncos to come out on top Tuesday. However, covering a double-digit spread will be a tall order for the Broncos. They are not a good shooting team, and the Spartans’ defense has done a good job so far this season. SJSU is 6-0 ATS in its last six games overall and 5-1 ATS in its previous six showings on the road.
1k Nevada -4 (WON) The Wolf Pack take good care of the ball and love to get to the free-throw line. They shoot 79.2% from the foul line (7th in the nation) and 35.0% from downtown (131st), and if the Wolf Pack continue to play aggressive defense, they’ll cover a 5.5-point spread. It won’t be an easy task by any means, as CSU desperately wants to break out of its funk. Nevada is 13-4-1 ATS in its last 18 games overall, while Colorado State is 1-5 ATS in its last six games overall and 0-5 ATS in its previous five contests in the MWC play.
1k Illinois -3.5 (LOST)
Northwestern is struggling a lot on the offensive side of the ball, and Illinois is a tough defensive unit that will force the Wildcats into a lot of contested shots. Terrence Shannon should make the difference down the stretch, so I’m going with Illinois to win and cover.
The Fighting Illini are 7-1 ATS in their last eight road encounters with the Wildcats. On the other side, Northwestern is 2-6 ATS in its last eight outings at home and 2-5 ATS in its previous seven games against the Big Ten Conference. The Wildcats are winless in five straight showings in January.
1k Butler -8 (PUSH) Butler has covered the spread in nine of its last ten encounters with DePaul, and I’m expecting the Bulldogs to extend their dominance over the Blue Demons. The Bulldogs are arguably a much better defensive team than the Blue Demons, who rank 301st in opposing 3-point percentage and 305th in opposing free throws made per contest (14.4). Butler doesn’t have a lot of depth, but the Bulldogs’ starting five will torture the Blue Demons. The Bulldogs take good care of the ball while making 47.3% of their field goals (60th).
1k Gonzaga -9 (LOST) The Dons have struggled to defend over their last two outings. Allowing 80 points to San Diego has been a huge disappointment. San Francisco still surrenders just 4.9 triples per game (7th in the nation) on a 28.4 percentage clip (24th), but the Dons will struggle to contain the Bulldogs in the paint. Drew Timme hit a 20-point mark in each of his three meetings with the Dons in 2021-22 and is poised for another strong performance. The Bulldogs are 7-4 ATS in their last 11 encounters with San Francisco. Last season, they beat the Dons 89-73 as 10.5-point road favorites.
1k Arizona -18.5 (LOST) The Huskies are defending the 3-point line well, but their interior defense hasn’t impressed so far this season. They’ll struggle to contain the Wildcats, so keep your eyes on Azuolas Tubelis and sophomore seven-footer Oumar Ballo (17.4 PPG, 9.3 RPG). If Washington’s shooting slump continues, the Wildcats will cover a huge spread with ease. Arizona is 4-1-1 ATS in its last six games overall. On the other side, Washington is 1-5 ATS in its previous six. The Huskies have covered in five straight road meetings with the Wildcats, but they’ll have a mountain to climb this time around.
1k California +8 (SU BIG WIN 92-70) The Cardinal are arguably a better team than the Golden Bears. I’m expecting Stanford to come out on top, but covering an 8-point spread on the road will be a tall order. It’s a big rivalry clash, and the Golden Bears will try their best to upset the odds. Stanford is not a great offensive unit, so I think Cal will keep it close. The Cardinal have gone 1-3 SU and ATS in their last four showings on the road as favorites. Stanford is 2-5 ATS in its last seven games against Cal and 1-6 ATS in its previous seven visits to Haas Pavilion.
1k Villanova -2 (LOST) Xavier just had their signature win of the season; knocking off 2nd-ranked conference rival UConn. The Musketeers are playing near the top of their ceiling offensively, seemingly hitting every shot and running very fluid in the half court. After eight straight wins, it’s hard to ‘get up’ for every game. Villanova is starting to figure things out, and they play very clean and disciplined offensively. The Wildcats are also the top-ranked free throw shooting team in the country. Xavier is due to for some scoring regression and and in a game that is expected to be close, give me ‘Nova at home with the superior edge in free throws. The favorite is 14-5 ATS in this matchup.
1k San Francisco +3 (WON SU) It’s hard to separate these two teams. They both lean on 3-point shooting a lot and match up against each other very well, so we should see a tight battle for all 40 minutes. I’m going with the Dons to cover, as they are a much better free-throw shooting team than the Lions, and that could easily make the difference down the stretch.
Rankings and projections only matter so much in conference games. IUPUI is getting too many points in this matchup. The Jaguars lost by 31 to Youngstown State, but that is a superior team to Robert Morris, Youngstown beat RMU by 22. Before the game against Youngstown, IUPUI had not lost by 15 or more for seven straight games. They are not getting blown out every game, and guard Counter can score well enough on this RMU defense to keep the game close in this conference battle. Take IUPUI with the points.
The favorite is 5-0 ATS in the last five meetings and the home team is 5-1 ATS in the last six meetings. The Cardinals are also 1-5 ATS in their last six Tuesday games. Ball State has been on a hot streak that will cool off at Ohio. The Bobcats have five-plus capable scorers, rebound the ball with authority, and take better care of the basketball than their opponent. Ohio is due for a conference win and will pick one up at home against the Cardinals.
1k Michigan State -1.5 (WON 69-65)
Games don't get much more even than this one. In matchups like this, the little things will go a long way. The Spartans are better on the boards, but the Badgers are better in the turnover battle. Michigan State does have a substantial advantage at the free-throw line where the are 70th in the country making 74.2% compared to just 68.3% for Wisconsin, which is 273rd. Those free throws will make a difference here, and I will back the Spartans as the road team has covered the last four meetings in this series.
1k Florida -1 (BIG WIN 67-56)
The LSU Tigers have a good looking record, but it was padded with a bevy of easy non conference wins. They have struggled thus far in the SEC, going 1-2 with 2 straight losses. Florida comes in with some momentum, as they almost beat 21st ranked Auburn on the road, fell by only 3 against Texas A&M, and beat a good Georgia team. In contrast, LSU got pummeled by Texas A&M 69-56 in their last outing. The line here is just 1, so it will indeed be a close game. But I think Florida has more scorers who can get late buckets and shoots much better from the free throw line and that will be the difference.
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