Tied 1-1 In The Series Anyone Want Miami At +240?

[five-head]

Numbers like that don’t “regress” in a single game though

They could shoot 60% or 20% tomorrow. Wouldn’t be shocked by either

Of course they do. In the NBA teams make game to game adjustments. The Heat can't and won't keep up that shooting pace from 3. Game one 33%, game two 49%.

 

[Avocado33]

Of course they do. In the NBA teams make game to game adjustments. The Heat can't and won't keep up that shooting pace from 3. Game one 33%, game two 49%.

Yeah that’s not how regression works lol maybe over a large sample of games

They might shoot like shit tomorrow but it isn’t because the law of averages or some bullshit like that

They absolutely could shoot 18/30 tomorrow as well

 

[Avocado33]

Game one 33%, game two 49%.

What about the Bucks series?

Heat shot from 3:

60% in Game 1
44.5% in Game 2
48.5% in Game 3

They shot over 36% in all 5 games in the series


How about the Celtics against the Heat?

7-35 (20%) in Game 6 - worst all year long

"Surely they can't shoot that poorly again! Law of averages!"

9-42 (21.4%) in Game 7

 

[five-head]

All I'm saying is the Heat won't shoot 50% from 3 game to game. Not going to happen. It also took the Heat shooting 48% from the 3 point line to barely win the game by 3 points. If they had shot 45% from 3 they lose game 2.

 

[Avocado33]

Also in the Heat/Celtics series:


Heat shot :

46.7% (14-30) from 3 in Game 6

50% (14-28) from 3 in Game 7


By your logic, they couldn't have possibly shot well in Game 7 based on how they shot in Game 6 lol

 

[Avocado33]

All I'm saying is the Heat won't shoot 50% from 3 game to game. Not going to happen. I'm speaking from the 3 point line.

All those statistics are 3-point shooting statistics

 

[Avocado33]

Not only can the Heat shoot close to 50% from 3 in back-to-back games, but they did it just last week lol

 

[five-head]

Sweet. Nothing is 100% sir. That's just my opinion. We'll see tomorrow.

 

[Avocado33]

It also took the Heat shooting 48% from the 3 point line to barely win the game by 3 points. If they had shot 45% from 3 they lose game 2.

Not exactly how that works. They miss a shot here or there, whole sequence of the game changes.

Heat have also won playoff games shooting like shit from 3

 

[Avocado33]

Sweet. Nothing is 100% sir. That's just my opinion. We'll see tomorrow.

Opinion that Denver will play better defense and Miami has a rough shooting night?

That's certainly possible.

But acting like they're gonna shoot poorly tomorrow based on the fact that they shot well the previous game is just objectively naive. You only see things "even out" over very large sample sizes . Not back to back games lol

 

[five-head]

Opinion that Denver will play better defense and Miami has a rough shooting night?

That's certainly possible.

But acting like they're gonna shoot poorly tomorrow based on the fact that they shot well the previous game is just objectively naive. You only see things "even out" over very large sample sizes . Not back to back games lol

Are you the resident NBA forum expert? Come on man we all have our own opinions on how we think a game may play out.

 

[crudebar]

Here is a "stat" for you guys. Many casinos donate a percentage of their profits to public schools. What course isn't taught in public schools, Stats and Probabilities---the one course that could affect the casinos bottom line. Do schools purposely not teach this?

 

[Avocado33]

Are you the resident NBA forum expert? Come on man we all have our own opinions on how we think a game may play out.

No problem with you having an opinion about the result of a game, obviously. That's what we're here for

But you're basically insinuating that a team has to follow up a good shooting night with a bad shooting night, which is absolute nonsense based on basic statistics.

There's nothing to debate

 

[five-head]

They might shoot like shit tomorrow

They absolutely could shoot 18/30 tomorrow as well

That's giving 2 opposite outcomes. The good thing is there's no way for you to be wrong lol

 

[Avocado33]

That's giving 2 opposite outcomes. The good thing is there's no way for you to be wrong lol

I'm not predicting either of those

I'm just saying that there are no laws of averages that prevents either one of those outcomes. They are both within the realm of possibility.

Obvious to anyone with basic statistics knowledge

 

[five-head]

I'm not predicting either of those

I'm just saying that there are no laws of averages that prevents either one of those outcomes. They are both within the realm of possibility.

Obvious to anyone with basic statistics knowledge

True but forget the law of averages statement. Teams make adjustments and I feel that there's a better chance they don't continue the 48-49% from 3 than it happening back to back. The opposite team hopefully is smart enough to make the adjustments or Miami won't make all those like they didn't in game 1. That's all I'm saying. Best of luck.

 

[LuckysBoy]

I think the casinos have an agreement with the schools, the casinos donate money, the schools won' t teach probability. LOL. I think they teach typing but i never took it.lol again.

 

[Avocado33]

True but forget the law of averages statement. Teams make adjustments and I feel that there's a better chance they don't continue the 48-49% from 3 than it happening back to back. The opposite team hopefully is smart enough to make the adjustments or Miami won't make all those like they didn't in game 1. That's all I'm saying. Best of luck.

Alright that’s a little better , way to come to your senses

I agree Nuggets will at least attempt to make adjustments and better defend the 3 point shooters

Good luck

 

[five-head]

Alright that’s a little better , way to come to your senses

I agree Nuggets will at least attempt to make adjustments and better defend the 3 point shooters

Good luck

? I'm glad I could better help you understand

 

[LuckysBoy]

Does Denver need to play Brown more? Porter reminded me of some of the Celtic players, If they were hitting 3s, they played better defense. Vincent had a bunch of wide opens looks same with Strus. Porter was guarding people like the series was over. If Miami gets as good of looks as they did in the first two games, they will shoot a high % all series.Robinson,Strus,Vincent all pure shooters.Love,Lowry,Martin very good shooters.They get uncontested looks,they will shoot a high %. Gm 1, looked like they had not adjusted to the altitude a lot of 3s missed was not because of great D. by Denver, but good shooters just missing. Saw an interesting stat if correct Denver 14-16 SU when Joker has less than 10 assists. He can get his 50, but don t give those other guys space for good looks.Maybe in 4th give Joker some doubles and make other guys who are not in rythm hit some pressure shots.