Thursday 3/17/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Monticello Raceway

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 9 - Post: 3:46 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 77 - Purse:$2700 - NW $250


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 4 GO GO RAIDER 7/2


# 5 DEXTER JIG 3/1


# 3 AINT NO MO 9/2


If you want a competitive play here, feast your eyes on GO GO RAIDER. Might be there at a favorable price tag. Definitely one to keep in your exotics. Could beat this group, just look at the speed rating - 82 - from his most recent event. This solid standardbred will be greatly helped with Merton guiding. 25 percent winners this last month. DEXTER JIG - Certainly did like this gelding's last race. Ran a solid 82 TrackMaster Speed Rating. Major contender. Top driver/trainer duet, with one of the most compelling ROI rates in this field of horses. AINT NO MO - We're not going to pass on this gelding given one of the best driver/trainer numbers around. When the trainer Banca puts Dane up for the drive very nice things happen. Just check out the 70 pct ROI.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Fair Grounds

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 5 - SO - 8.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $20000 Class Rating: 92

FOR ACCREDITED LA BRED FOUR YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE STARTED FOR A CLAIMING PRICE OF $5,000 OR LESS IN 2014-2016 OR CLAIMING PRICE $12,500. WEIGHT, 123 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF TWO RACES AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE JANUARY 17 ALLOWED 2 LBS. ONE SUCH RACE SINCE THEN ALLOWED 4 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 6 KAPENTA 5/1


# 7 BROADWAY KING 8/1


# 5 DISTURBINGBEHAVIOR 7/2


KAPENTA looks to be a decent contender. Has to be given a chance against this group displaying formidable figs as of late and an average Equibase Speed Fig of 89 under similar conditions. With better than average trips to the winner's circle, Guzman will most likely have this gelding in excellent position to win the competition. Might wake up with Lasix change (now going off Lasix) today. BROADWAY KING - Should come out very strong - I have liked the way this gelding has moved quickly to the front end recently. Posted a strong Equibase Speed Fig in the last race. Can run another good one in this affair. DISTURBINGBEHAVIOR - Solid pick to take this race going in a dirt route. Always tough to beat Broberg and McMahon working together, winning 35 percent of their races.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Golden Gate Fields

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 2 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $12000 Class Rating: 89

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 117 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, IF FOR $10,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 5 ANYA AMASOVA 5/2


# 1 KUUIPO 8/1


# 6 MISS MARINI 2/1


My selection in this contest is ANYA AMASOVA. Delia has this mare moving well and is a respectable selection based on the strong Equibase Speed Figs posted in sprint races lately. She looks very strong in this spot and I expect will be on the front end or close at the halfway point. Is a solid choice - given the 88 Equibase Speed Figure from her most recent race. KUUIPO - Will most likely compete soundly in the pace battle which bodes well with this group. MISS MARINI - Is difficult not to consider given the company run in lately. With a reliable 81 average Equibase Speed Fig at the distance, seems well suited for today's contest.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Charles Town - Race #4 - Post: 8:24pm - Claiming - 7.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $10,000 Class Rating: 83

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#3 JONI'S WILDCAT (ML=4/1)


JONI'S WILDCAT - All systems look good for this horse. Last work, 2nd fastest of the day, shows he's fit and ready. You have to always check out this type of speedball with an inside draw in a sprint on a tight track. Lets try to beat the morning-line favorites with this horse. Just missed last out, but ran a pretty decent race. The turns at Charles Town are pretty tight, but many times a thoroughbred with a good record on the turf will adapt.

Vulnerable Contenders: #7 TIZRACER (ML=8/5), #1 CYTHEREAN (ML=3/1), #4 MOONSTRUCK COWBOY (ML=5/1),

TIZRACER - 8/5 is not worth it for any horse in a sprint of 7 furlongs that hasn't hit the board in a short distance affair recently. CYTHEREAN - This gelding hasn't had any recent good results in sprint contests. No picnic to play him in this affair. Tough to keep stabbing at this kind of 'bridesmaid' horse. MOONSTRUCK COWBOY - More than enough races at Charles Town with no trips to the victory podium.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Put your money on #3 JONI'S WILDCAT on the nose if you can get odds of 1/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:
Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Skip

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Gulfstream Park - Race #6 - Post: 3:05pm - Claiming - 7.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $20,000 Class Rating: 91

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#7 FIFTY TWO (ML=8/1)
#2 TWO STEP TEMPER (ML=3/1)
#3 HOW YOU (ML=7/2)
#9 MADROOS (ML=5/2)


FIFTY TWO - This horse obviously likes the conditions for today's race. Has recorded the highest speed rating on the grass at the dist-surf. When a sprinter is back in a race less than 10 days after his last outing, it generally means he's fit. PP lines show this thoroughbred with three improving speed figs. Juarez should be on a live one right here. Look for this one to go wire to wire at some pretty good odds right here in this race. Ran fourth in last race, but not more than five from the lead at the wire. TWO STEP TEMPER - Colt had the second fastest workout of the day prepping for this. Always be careful of the longer priced equine when a trainer has an 'uncoupled' entry in a race. I'm focusing on the class of this race horse, and this one is the 'classiest' of the bunch. HOW YOU - This gelding is in good form, having run a strong race on Feb 24th, finishing third. I seem to always make money betting Navarro horses on the grass. That barn has a powerful win percent for this distance/surface. Gelding is a few starts into a comeback here. Should give a big race today. MADROOS - Trainer, Maker, has been deliberate with this gelding off the layoff. Look for a solid effort today.

Vulnerable Contenders: #5 VERY VERY STELLA (ML=6/1),

VERY VERY STELLA - This gelding garnered a speed fig in his last event which likely isn't good enough in today's race.

Top HatGUEST COMMENTARY: Winston - TWO STEP TEMPER - Blinkers on and you cannot bet wrong. This horse should be long gone.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
Go with #7 FIFTY TWO on top if we're getting at least 9/2 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:
Pass

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
Pass

SUPER HI 5 WAGERS:
None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #5 - AQUEDUCT RACETRACK - 3:16 PM

6.0 FURLONGS WINTERIZED INNER DIRT TRACK FOUR YEARS OLD AND UPWARD $25,000.00 CLAIMING $47,000.00 PURSE

#5 CASPIAN CROWN
#6 COMANDANTE
#3 JETER
#4 PEGASUS RED

#5 CASPIAN CROWN comes off back-to-back "POWER RUN WINS" in his last two starts. Jockey Jacqulina Davis was in his irons for that last win, last week here at the "Big-A," whcih produced a +375% profit in the process, and Ms. Davis is back this afternoon here in Ozone Park for her 2nd ride, gunning for back-to-back "Circle Trips." The morning line favorite is #6 COMANDANTE who takes a class drop (-9), and is the speed leader in this claiming field sprinting at 6.0 furlongs on the dirt, and has produced "POWER RUN PERFORMANCES" in four of his last five outings, facing better company in each of those races than he will face in this field today.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Thursday 3/17 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 1 - $30,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

20-CENT PICK 5: 2/3,5,7/1,4,6,7/1,4,8/1,9,10 = $21.60

EARLY PICK 4: 1,4,8/1,9,10/4,6,8/2 = $27

LATE PICK 4: 2/1,5,6,7/2,3,4/1,3,8 = $36

MEET STATS: 296 - 938 / $1541.60 BEST BETS: 47 - 88 / $168.90

SPOT PLAYS: 21 - 88 / $218.80

Best Bet: BLUEBERRY WILL (7th)

Spot Play: CLASSIC COMEDY (1st)


Race 1

(2) CLASSIC COMEDY had an impossible trip from the outermost post at Flamboro on Sunday night and still finished 3rd to a blowout winner. She should be very tough in here in her second start for Auciello. (7) LUCKY COCKTAIL has been racing well for several weeks and is the one to knock off here. (1) SHEZ A GOLD MINE drops into a claimer for the first time and is sure to be heard from.

Race 2

(3) MOHEGAN BLUE CHIP gets a better post to work with here and should be up near the pace early, which gives him a shot to notch that maiden score. (7) DAYLIGHT RUSH finished quickly in his qualifier and has faced better. He should be a threat here. (5) BETTER TO BELIEVE closed a good gap late last time but was nailed late by a rival that passed them all from the back. He has some upside and isn't out of this.

Race 3

(6) BEACH SCENE showed massive improvement to win in a dead-heat last week in her 4th lifetime start. She retains MacDonald and could have further improvement to offer. (4) BETTYS BAY left hard from the 10-hole then lacked room late. She will likely take plenty of action here and is a threat. (7) ORCH VICKY finished on even terms with the choice and will be closing again, but will likely need to pass them all to get the job done; minor share predicted.

Race 4

(8) XPERT BAYAMA has shown promise in both his starts although the gaps in between starts are a bit concerning; slight nod. (1) BIG PETES STYLE made a big chalk work for the win down the lane last time in a good effort. He figures here if he can produce something close to that mile. (4) NEW STANDARD roared up late aided by a slowing pace to get the job done last week. He is hard to love on top because of where he comes from, but you know he will be passing most of them in the final 1/4.

Race 5

(10) HP BLACK SHADOW was an easy winner last time when claimed by trainer Johnson; call to repeat, even from out there. (9) REGAL FAME raced better for Moreau and should be a threat again. (1) EINHORN should get a strong early pace to chase but needs to stay flat to have a chance.

Race 6

(6) WANAKA closed strongly last week, but the winner was already long gone. That was following a month off and she should be even sharper here returning to a 7-day cycle. (8) APRIL BREEZE ON BY finished just behind the choice and should be prominent again here. (4) CROWN CLASSIC broke when the driver whipped her just after making front at the 1/2 last time. She is capable vs. these and the teamster likely learned something from that event.

Race 7

(2) BLUEBERRY WILL has been impressive while reeling off three straight wins to start the year and she should be tough here, albeit at a low price. (8) IN THE SHADOWS has improved in Moiseyev's care and will get there one of these weeks. (6) DOCS DIVA steps out of maidens and will likely find some of these much tougher.

Race 8

(7) CALIFORNIA RACHEL couldn't get close to a very sharp winner last week but did race well first-up herself. She can get the job done here with a decent trip. (6) KADDY went too long of a trip in that same mile and should be closer here with the improved post. (1) JAYPORT ON TH EDGE finally broke his maiden and his good early speed makes him a threat here.

Race 9

(3) WHERE ARE WE raced tough first-over in her season debut and should be able to build off that effort; slight nod. (2) NEVER ANY DOUBT ships in for a Hall of Fame trainer that starts many off at the 'B' tracks. This one surely has more speed to offer. (4) STONEBRIDGE MEDUSA wasn't far back in her debut and should improve with that experience in tow.

Race 10

(1) MARKATHY dropped several seconds in her first start off the claim and looks as good as any here. He could be a square price, too; top call. (9) LOVES A CHALLENGE is usually tough at this level and goes first off the claim for a hot outfit; using. (3) SOS MACH XTREME has closed rapidly in the final 1/4 in his last two starts and isn't out of this. (7) KABLOOIE is a strong earner and should hit the ticket again here. (10) JAC SPADE will likely be last early but can pass many of these late and make the top 5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Thursday 3/17 Analysis
By Matt Rose

DRF HARNESS


MEET STATS: 68 - 213 / $386.50

BEST BETS: 7 - 18 / $26.00

Best Bet: LYONS SHADOW (12th)

Spot Play: BETTOR OUT WEST (4th)


Race 1

(1) CLARA BEA returns locally off a game front-end score up at Saratoga and she can control the action from this spot. (2) MISS ALI MACH N wasn't awful in her debut for the Allard barn and she deserves a long look. (4) LOCAL ART may have regained some confidence with that trip-sitting win last out for Stalbaum.

Race 2

(3) JUST SAYIN was run over at the wire last week, her first start for new connections. She keeps the leading driver and can make amends. (7) VILLAGE JESSICA has plenty of early speed if Sears elects to use it. (4) BORN TO DREAM is down in class for the third consecutive start for Lachance; this could finally be a winning level.

Race 3

(5) HUSTLEONHOME gave way after an uncovered try into a 1/20 shot last week; A Nap drives again and we're all recognizing his ability this year. Mare can connect with a better trip. (3) TRINE HANOVER is back down in class and looms the one to beat with Bartlett. (4) AMERICAN FILLY could show more in her second start for new connections.

Race 4

(3) BETTOR OUT WEST rushed up at the half and kept plugging away to record the upset score last week; she faces some tough rivals tonight but seems sharp enough to repeat. (1) SENTIMENTAL LADY debuts for Allard via claim, has speed and the best draw. (2) RIVER RUNS THRU IT has been dull in her last two but was a winner when last at this level.

Race 5

(1) SENORITA SANTANNA finished well in her debut for the Renaud barn and she can be very tough tonight from this spot. (4) KAMWOOD LAUGHTER N has been flashing speed recently for the Vallee barn, which has had some live ones recently. (3) SUMMER SNOW will attract plenty of attention off the Banca claim. This class grey will either win by 10 or be up the track; use caution.

Race 6

(2) MC DYNAMITE is a bit of a reach but this barn has been going well and there are some suspect speed types in here; it wouldn't shock me if he shook free late and was able to charge home. (1) MAGIC MANNY closed a ton last week off the claim and should be on the lead or in the pocket here. (4) ROCKSTAR STRIDE jogged just three nights ago versus lesser for the world's greatest trainer Tom Milici.

Race 7

(1) JOLT OF WHISKEY jogged last week on the front end for Milici, will be odds-on to repeat. (4) HANDS OFF FRANK shook free and rallied well last out to be second best to the top choice. (5) COLONIAL ROAD can rally late at a price.

Race 8

(1) BIG BAD BOSSMAN has been much, much improved in his last two and he can be tough from this spot. (5) REAL FLIGHT debuts for Milici off the claim; I'm sure the double jump won't matter as he'll probably improve three seconds. (2) WHOSURPAPA went too fast last week and folded shop; off the pace tonight?

Race 9

(3) LET HER ROCK always seems like she should be better than she is but she should fit nicely with these and will be better value than others. (1) BETTOR CHILL OUT returns from The Meadowlands and looms the one to catch. (4) I DO IT MYSELF has done nothing off the recent claim but she does get post relief and may show some improvement.

Race 10

(4) ALL FIRED UP didn't really fire last out but note the Simpson barn has had some live ones recently and this one is worth a look in an open race. (3) STEUBEN PATRIOT blew away lesser at Monti and has raced with better than these in the past. (8) BOX CAR JOHNNIE jogged three days ago and is two for two since the claim.

Race 11

(3) FITZ'S Z TAM gets some needed post relief and can resume winning ways. (1) COACH CAL also moves all the way inside and will look for a live stalking trip. (5) ELECTRIC CHAPEL kicked home nicely last week and can do the same here.

Race 12

(4) LYONS SHADOW was well handled last week by Bartlett, who made the best of a bad situation to be second best; she'll be close enough from this spot to grind by. (1) KIDDIE MCCARDLE couldn't last after brushing to the front last out; she draws best and keeps Sears for Allard. (3) BLUSH HANOVER shook free with pace last week, could do the same here.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Thursday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Aqueduct (3rd) Jules N Rome, 9-2
(4th) Danger Lurks, 3-1

Charles Town (2nd) Tiger Distinction, 6-1
(7th) Waterside Dream, 7-2


Fair Grounds (1st) Starnilla, 5-1
(9th) La Crema Rouge, 5-1


Golden Gate Fields (6th) Foreverinsummer, 7-2
(7th) Emerald Green, 9-2


Gulfstream Park (8th) Princessofthieves, 4-1
(11th) Written in Stars, 5-1


Oaklawn Park (1st) Right Squall, 4-1
(8th) Divine Elegance, 9-2

Penn National (3rd) Honour the Forest, 5-1
(5th) Star of Magic, 6-1

Santa Anita (4th) All for Charity, 8-1
(8th) Turf Club Queen, 4-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's six-pack

Six of the more interesting first round games the next two days.........

-- Gonzaga-Seton Hall-- Zags won their last seven first round games. Seton Hall is on heels of winning first Big East tournament since 1993.

-- Wichita State-Arizona-- Wildcats are only favored by 1.5 points.

-- Iona-Iowa State-- Fast-paced game with thin rosters in high altitude.

-- Providence-USC-- How far can Dunn/Bentil carry the Friars?

-- VCU-Oregon State-- Beavers' first appearance in NCAAs since 1990.

-- South Dakota State-Maryland-- Jackrabbits get a shot at one of the big boys.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sharp Bettor

Sharp Bettor's Free Pick for Thursday, March 17, 2016, CBB.

The Selection committee must really have a thing for the PAC-12 with the likes of Oregon State and USC getting into the field. USC didn't help it's own cause down the stretch either, going 3-7 over their last 10 games. The Trojans weren't very good to bettors either, going 2-6 ATS their last eight and 5-10 ATS over the last 15 games. Meanwhile, Providence covered its last five games in a row, losing out to Villanova in the Big East Tournament. Providence is a high scoring team and has a legitimate NBA lottery pick on the club in Kris Dunn. I like Providence in this game, as I don't believe USC should even be here. Either way, the winner of this game has North Carolina on deck.

Play Providence.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Roz Wins

Roz's Thursday, March 17, 2016, Free NHL Pick:

Detroit is strong on defense, but 24th in the NHL in goals scored. The Under is 4-0 in Red Wings last 4 in the third game of a 3-in-4 days situation. Columbus is No. 22 in the league in goals scored and No. 19 on the power play, off a 4-0 loss at home to Tampa Bay. And the Under is 8-2-1 in the last 11 meetings.

Play Detroit/Columbus Under the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play Thursday

737 CHATTANOOGA vs. 738 INDIANA 7:10 PM

Take: CHATTANOOGA +12

This has been a very good season for Indiana. I thought the Hoosiers were being overrated by many prognosticators prior to the start of the campaign and was proven wrong. Tom Crean removed himself from the coaching hot seat conversation in impressive fashion, and I’m actually very surprised Indiana got what I consider a lesser seed than they warranted.

But the Hoosiers loss as far as seeding goes might work out to be my gain. I like this Chattanooga team, and more importantly, I like the way the Mocs match up with Indiana.

Make no mistake, Indiana is the better squad here. Troy Williams and Yogi Ferrell are liable to be the two best players on the floor today and I don’t see Chat being able to shut that dynamic duo down.

But at the same time, I like the underdog’s chances of displaying plenty of good stuff today as well. Justin Tuoyo can be a real handful as long as he avoids foul trouble and can stay on the floor, and Tre’ McLean is a very steady contributor who is unlikely to be overwhelmed by the surroundings.

As for how this unfolds, I feel strongly that the Mocs are going to try their best to push the ball into the paint whenever possible. The Indiana defense is configured to protect the wings and not allow good three-point looks. That should be good for Chattanooga, as the worst thing they can do is be impatient and get into a run and jump shoot contest with the Hoosiers.

The Mocs are a very veteran team, and I sure don’t think they are in that happy to be here mindset some of the smaller conference qualifiers sometimes fall prey to. I also don’t think there’s any chance Indiana just shows up overconfident, and they’re probably a little angry about getting stuck with a #5 seed. I doubt the Mocs win this straight up, but I also don’t see a blowout being likely, and I’m happy enough to take the dozen with Chattanooga today.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Comp NBA Pick, Thursday, March 17, 2016 8:05 PM

(707) DENVER NUGGETS VS (708) ATLANTA HAWKS

Take: Over the total

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Thursday, March 17, 2016 is in the NBA scheduled contest between the Denver Nuggets and Hawks in Atlanta. Denver has plenty of offensive punch, up to No. 14 in the league in points scored. But they haven't been playing any defense on this road trip, getting beat the first two games allowing 124 and 116 points. Denver is on a 6-2 run over the total, 4-1 over on the road and the over is 8-2 in the Nuggets last 10 games playing on one day of rest. The Over is also 9-4 when the Nuggets face a team with a winning straight up record and they head to a strong, unselfish Atlanta offense. Atlanta had to play last night but the Over is 5-1 in Hawks last 6 games playing on no days rest. Play Denver/Atlanta Over the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Red Dog Sports

Sporting Braga vs Fenerbahce

Bonus Play Draw +235

I like the draw in this soccer match set for Thursday. Nice value at +235.

Fenerbahce 1

Braga 1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jack Jones

Iona vs Iowa State

Jack's Free Pick Thursday: Iowa State -7.5

Many felt that the Iowa State Cyclones were going to be a national title contender once the season finished last year. They had pretty much everyone coming back, and Fred Hoiberg was still in town. But Hoiberg bolted for the Chicago Bulls, and Steve Prohm was left with an unenviable task of replacing him.

Iowa State (21-11) certainly did not live up to expectations this year. Of course, it hurt that Naz Long suffered a season-ending hip injury early in the season. The Cyclones wound up finishing in a tie for 5th place in the Big 12 when they were expected to compete for a regular season championship. They then promptly lost to Oklahoma in the first round of the Big 12 Tournament.

But there’s no question in my mind this team is better than its record. Iowa State suffered seven of its 11 losses by 5 points or less, and all 11 losses came by 10 points or fewer, so it was in every game it played in. It also went 0-3 in overtime games. The Cyclones just weren't fortunate in close games this season, plain and simple.

While they lack depth on the bench, which could have been a reason for their struggles in close games, the Cyclones arguably have the best starting five in the country. They are one of only two teams to have six players averaging in double-figures scoring. Georges Niang (19.8 ppg, 6.2 rpg) is the toughest matchup in the country, and Monte Morris (13.9 ppg, 6.9 apg) is one of the best guards in the land.

Abdel Nader (13.1 ppg, 5.1 rpg), Jameel McKay (11.5 ppg, 8.9 rpg, 1.8 bpg), Matt Thomas (10.7 ppg, 4.5 rpg) and Deonte Burton (10.0 ppg, 4.1 rpg) are the other four players averaging double figures. The Cyclones are the third-most efficient offensive team in the country.

Iona is a trendy upset pick, which I believe is keeping this line lower than it should be. The Gaels went just 6-6 in non-conference games this season. They lost by 25 at Valparaiso and by 20 at Oregon State. They also lost at home to both Akron and UC-Santa Barbara.

Iowa State is 51-29 ATS in its last 80 March games. Iowa State is 4-1 ATS in its last five games following a loss. After getting upset by UAB in the first round last year, the Cyclones will be focused and ready to go Thursday. They have been thinking about that loss for 365 days and will not let it happen again.

Plays against Underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points (IONA) – after 4 or more consecutive wins, when seeded 13 through 16 in the NCAA tournament are 49-19 (72.1%) ATS since 1997. Iowa State is one of the smallest favorites of the 1-4 seeds in the field, and as a result there is some value here. Bet Iowa State Thursday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ray Monohan

Blazers vs Spurs

Thursday 5* NBA ATS Bonus Play San Antonio Spurs -11.5

The Spurs take on Portland on Thursday night and they've just been absolutely unreal at home this season. The last game against the Clippers is a prime example of how good this team is inside the AT&T Center. The Spurs looked poor for 3 quarters and held a slim lead entering the 4th quarter.

They then took off and made a scene by scoring 39 points in the 4th quarter and pushed the lead to and win to 21. The Spurs are a perfect 33-0 at home and 21-12 ATS in their home tenure.

On the other side of things, Portland has struggled on the road going 14-21.

Some trends to consider. Trail Blazers are 4-9 ATS in the last 13 meetings. Trail Blazers are 1-6 ATS in the last 7 meetings in San Antonio.

With the struggles Portland has against the Spurs, laying the double digit number here is no problem. Expect a very lopsided win here.

Back San Antonio.

Good Luck, Razor Ray

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Scott Spreitzer

Wichita State vs Arizona

Bonus Play Wichita State

I'm recommending a play on Wichita State plus points on Thursday evening. The Shockers started slowly this season with injuries to a couple of players, including their leader, Fred VanVleet. They have flown a tad under the radar for most of the season. Remember, the Shockers were an Elite-8 pick and a popular Final-4 preseason pick by a lot of talking heads. They looked a little rusty and sluggish in their opener on Tuesday, but once things kicked into gear, Wichita State went on a run, outscoring Vanderbilt, 20-2 down the stretch. Arizona wants a high scoring game, but they're going to face an in-your-shirt style of man-to-man defense that few teams can offer (7.2 steals per game). The Wildcats also like to feed off of other teams mistakes, but Wichita State makes very few on the offensive end. Defensively, the Shockers have forced a fantastic 0.62 assists/turnover ratio, with their opponents averaging over 14 turnovers per game and less than 10 assists per game. And while the Mo-Valley entry is on a 17-6 ATS run, overall, the Wildcats are on a 0-6 ATS slide against teams playing better than .600 basketball. I'm betting the Mo-Valley rep moves on. I'm recommending a play on Wichita State plus the points. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

TEDDY COVERS

Take Iona – Iowa State OVER

We’ve got two teams that love to run, pushing the pace at every opportunity – this is the highest total (by a fairly wide margin) of the first round for a reason! And it’s the type of game where the loser can be expected to get into the 80’s, if not higher!
Both squads rank among the Top 35 in the country when it comes to tempo; with each team averaging less than 16 seconds per possession. And when two teams like this get together, it’s a track meet, Throw in the early start time and the mile high altitude and we can expect defense to be optional for extended stretches of this ballgame.
The Gaels have scored 78+ in nine of their last ten games; lighting up the scoreboard even against opponents who were trying to slow them down. When they faced another uptempo opponent – Fairfield, for example – the Gaels scored 91 and lost. In their first matchup with Monmouth, the Gaels scored 102 in regulation and lost. In fact, in ten Iona games with a total of 158 or higher, they went 8-2 to the Over; playing even faster than the betting markets could account for.
One thing Iona does not do much of, however, is play defense. Iowa State has spent the better part of the last three months slogging it out in halfcourt sets against one elite Big 12 defense after the next. The Gaels don’t play D like Oklahoma , Kansas, Baylor, Texas, Texas A&M or West Virginia; a HUGE step down in defensive class for an exceptional offensive squad; ranked #3 in the country by KenPom in offensive efficiency.
The Cyclones hung 80+ eleven times in Big 12 play against those quality defenses on the heels of scoring 80+ seven times in their first eight non-conference games. Heck, this team got to 160 against Northern Iowa and Cincinnati in back-2-back games, two teams at the very slow end of any pace rankings. This one’s gonna be fun to watch! Take the Over.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Bryan Leonard

Stony Brook +14

The Seawolves are 26-6 on the season and nobody is giving them any chance of competing with the Wildcats here. This despite an 11-5 mark away from home. This team has already faced Vanderbilt and Notre Dame on the road, two teams playing in the Big Dance. While Stony Brook did not win either of those games this team has the ability to keep this one close.

Kentucky did virtually all its damage this year in Rupp Arena. 17-0 at home and 9-8 on neutral and away courts. Losses to four teams who did not even make the Big Dance. The Wildcats just played three straight games including two in which it trailed much of the game, in order to win the SEC Tourney. Now with a possible matchup with Indiana on deck these young kids cannot be fully focused to take on a no name team like Stony Brook.