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[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Oddsmakers weigh in on Round of 64's most intriguing games
By COLIN KELLY

Dick Vitale has now had time to vent his spleen over Monmouth not gaining entry into the NCAA Tournament. (For what it’s worth, I actually agree with him. I love watching Monmouth’s bench jockeys with all their scripted celebrations.) And all the usual suspects on TV and radio are now providing a crash course in bracketology.

But never mind all those folks. What do the sportsbook operators think about the bracket?

The tourney’s round of 64 is Thursday and Friday – two days that, if you can, you must find your way to Las Vegas in your lifetime – and we have a top-seeded trio weighing in on what they deem the most intriguing games.

So let’s get right to it, shall we?

JAY ROOD, vice president of race and sports, MGM-Mirage

Midwest Region

No. 6 Seton Hall vs. No. 11 Gonzaga (-2)

“It’s almost like they had the seeds backwards here,” Rood said. “The ceiling for Gonzaga is much higher. That’s one of the teams that’s a double-digit seed, though they shouldn’t be, that could go far in the tournament.”

No. 7 Dayton vs. No. 10 Syracuse (Pick)

“I’ve got to think a lot of people will look to Syracuse as the class of this matchup,” Rood said. “But Dayton is gonna be a dangerous opponent for anybody, especially in this first-round game.”

East Region

No. 4 Kentucky (-14) vs. No. 13 Stony Brook

“Kentucky was underseeded, but John Calipari should be used to that,” Rood said. “The selection committee kind of does that to him every year. So that’s a team looking to prove a point. They might look to punish their opponent.”

No. 8 Southern California vs. Providence (-2)

“That’s a great game, a really good game to book,” Rood said. “We’ll have action going both ways, with possibly a little lean to Providence. But Southern Cal’s a team that can be dangerous, especially if the Trojans get their outside shooting going.”

South Region

No. 4 California (-6.5) vs. No. 13 Hawaii

“That’s gonna be one I’m watching from start to finish if I can,” Rood said. “Cal is rounding into shape, and I like the way Hawaii plays. It could be a really exciting game, with a lot of live look-ins – a pure basketball junky kind of game.”

No. 10 Temple vs. No. 7 Iowa (-7)

“We’re gonna be rooting for the Owls,” Rood said. “The public will line up behind Iowa, but Temple is a team that can definitely give Iowa a battle.”

West Region

No. 2 Oklahoma (-13.5) vs. No. 15 Cal State-Bakersfield

“Oklahoma will be looking to put a hurting on Cal State-Bakersfield,” Rood said. “That game is one we’re gonna make sure we have a higher number on. I think Oklahoma has all the talent to win this tournament. So there’s a little motivation for Oklahoma to make sure they come out and set the tone right away.”

JASON SIMBAL, vice president of risk management, CG Technology

South Region

No. 8 Colorado vs. No. 9 Connecticut (-3.5)

“The number was consistent between all of us who made numbers,” said Simbal, whose operation oversees sportsbooks at the M, the Palms, the Venetian and more in Las Vegas. “The public is likely to be all over UConn here, which could swing the odds toward the Huskies and leave some value on Colorado.”

No. 4 California (-6.5) vs. No. 13 Hawaii

“This is an interesting matchup because a lot of people have high opinions on Cal making a run,” Simbal said. “However, this is a tough first round matchup for them.”

West Region

No. 5 Baylor (-5) vs. No. 12 Yale

“This is another instance of a 12 seed that has a good chance of winning outright,” Simbal said. “Yale is one of our higher-ranked teams going in and is only a 5 point underdog to Baylor.”

No. 7 Oregon State vs. No. 10 Virginia Commonwealth (-3.5)

“Clearly, the committee mis-seeded according to Vegas odds, with the 10 seed VCU opening as a 3.5-point favorite over the 7 seed,” Simbal said.

East Region

No. 3 West Virginia (-5) vs. No. 14 Stephen F. Austin

“Similar to Cal, West Virginia is a team that a lot of folks have high expectations of to make a run, and the Mountaineers got a very challenging first-round matchup as only 5-point favorites,” Simbal said. “Based on our power rankings, 13 is much too low of a seed for Stephen F. Austin.”

No. 8 Southern California vs No. 9 Providence (-1.5)

“This is a classic 8 vs. 9 matchup of two very even teams,” Simbal said. “This game should generate good two-way action.”

Midwest Region

No. 7 Dayton vs. No. 10 Syracuse (Pick)

“For a team that was a surprise to many to get in, Syracuse opened as a pick vs. a 25-win Dayton team,” Simbal said.

No. 6 Seton Hall (-1) vs. No. 11 Gonzaga

“This is a fun game,” Simbal said. “Seton Hall and Gonzaga have proved to be two very hot teams that are fun to watch. This game will attract good two-way action.”

SCOTT KAMINSKY

First off, a disclaimer: Kaminsky cares little for bracketology or seedings or anything that typically saturates the media following the release of the bracket. So he found four games that caught his attention, but for very different reasons.

East Region

No. 16 Florida Gulf Coast (-6) vs. No. 16 Fairleigh Dickinson

Yep, it’s one of the First Four matchups – ostensibly a play-in game to the field of 64 – set for Tuesday. But that’s what Kaminsky contends is great about it.

“I like seeing teams that aren’t in the spotlight normally,” said Kaminsky, noting when he was a kid, his family had season tickets to St. Francis, Pa., basketball games, and at one, he sat behind the Fairleigh Dickinson bench and got to talk to one of the players.

“I like the Fairleigh Dickinsons and Florida Gulf Coasts of the world. These kids play all their lives, and practice as hard as the kids at North Carolina. Now, they bust their ass and have their one shining moment, their 15 minutes of fame. It’s nice to see teams like this shine, for whatever time they have in the tournament.”

No. 4 Kentucky (-14) vs. No. 13 Stony Brook

“This is Stony Brook’s first NCAA Tournament game ever, and it’s against the best team of the last three years,” Kaminsky said. “Nothing says Stony Brook can’t win the game, and everybody who’s not a Kentucky fan will be rooting for that to happen. A lot of people don’t like Kentucky’s one-and-done recruiting philosophy, and I don’t either.”

South Region

No. 2 Villanova (-16) vs. No. 15 North Carolina-Asheville

This one is strictly sentimental for Kaminsky, having nothing to do with basketball.

“A couple years ago, my wife and I decided to take a trip with my mom, who was 92 at the time, to Asheville,” said Kaminsky, whose mom is now 94. “We had a great time. It’ll be one of the last trips I had with my mom. So that game’s just gonna mean a lot to me.”

East Region

No. 3 West Virginia (-5) vs. No. 14 Stephen F. Austin

“I enjoy watching West Virginia because I like the full-court press,” Kaminsky said. “You don’t see that anymore – a team that does full-court press the whole game. That’s old school, something I used to do when I was a kid.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Tournament: Capsule look at all 68 teams
By The Sports Xchange

EAST CAPSULES
1. North Carolina (28-6). Roy Williams led his "pretty dog-gone good basketball team" to its 15th No. 1 seed, most in ACC history. This balanced Tar Heels team is fresh off its 26th conference tournament crown and look to bring home the school's third NCAA title since 2005.
2. Xavier (27-5). With six players averaging more than nine points and their ability to play both man and the 1-3-1 zone defense, the Musketeers are in good position to build on last year's Sweet 16 appearance.
3. West Virginia (26-8). -- The Mountaineers continue to silence their critics after finishing second in the Big 12 after being picked to finish 12th in the preseason polls. This ferocious defensive team employs a full-court press that makes life hard by forcing plenty of turnovers.
4. Kentucky (26-8). -- The Wildcats may not have seven NBA-caliber players like they did last season, but the SEC Player of the Year and Naismith Trophy semifinalist Tyler Ulis (16.8 points, 7.2 assists) and Murray team up to make for a troublesome backcourt duo.
5. Indiana (25-7). The Hoosiers are not a one-trick pony any longer, but Tom Crean's team still features four players averaging 11 or more points and an offense that scores over 80 points per game.
6. Notre Dame (21-11). The Fighting Irish shot a solid 47.1 percent (869 of 1844) from the floor collectively this season, led by Zach Auguste's 54.9 percent clip, but they have been known to struggle on the defensive end.
7. Wisconsin (20-12). The Badgers are hot at the right time, winning 11 of 14 entering the tournament. That's good news for coach Greg Gard, who took the reins after Bo Ryan's sudden retirement in December. That five-year contract extension is looking pretty good right now.
8. Southern California (21-12). Under third-year coach Andy Enfield -- the architect of Florida Gulf Coast's Sweet 16 run in 2013 -- the Trojans have developed an impressive offense that scores over 80 points per game with a plethora of scoring options.
9. Providence (23-10). Dunn and Bentil are one of the best twosomes in the country when they're firing on all cylinders, but the Friars were consistently bogged down by poor shooting starts this season -- something that would send them packing early in March.
10. Pittsburgh (21-11). Michael Young's 16 points and seven rebounds per game lead a Panthers team that settled into ninth in the ACC and stalled out with four losses in its final six games.
11/11. Michigan (22-12)/Tulsa (20-11). The Wolverines struggled to the tune of a 4-12 record against teams with a top-100 RPI. As for Tulsa, it certainly doesn't hurt to have as experienced a roster as the Golden Hurricane does (nine seniors) has come tournament time.
12. Chattanooga (29-5). Coach Matt McCall and the Mocs don't like to think of themselves as the underdogs, but it's a role they'll need to embrace to get the upset against Indiana.
13. Stony Brook (26-6). -- Jameel Warney stuffed the stat sheet (19.0 points, 10.7 rebounds, 62.6 field goal percentage) and leads the way for the Seawolves, who are making their first ever NCAA tournament appearance.
14. Stephen F. Austin (27-5). Another year, another NCAA tournament appearance for Brad Underwood and the Lumberjacks. That marks three straight appearances in the big dance for Stephen F. Austin, which forces turnovers at a comparable rate to its opponent, West Virginia.
15. Weber State (26-8). The Wildcats are one of the country's best two-point shooting teams, finishing the regular season at a 55.5 percent clip, and are riding high as the Big Sky Conference champions.
16/16. Florida Gulf Coast (20-13)/Farleigh Dickenson (18-14). Dunk City makes its triumphant return to the NCAA Tournament after their magical run to the Sweet 16 in 2013, while Farleigh Dickenson (and its questionable defense) returns to the big dance for the first time since 2005.

SOUTH CAPSULES
1. Kansas (30-4). The No. 1 overall seed is fueled by upperclassmen and enters the NCAA Tournament on a 14-game winning streak.
2. Villanova (29-5). Would have been a No. 1 seed but lost to Seton Hall 69-67 in the championship game of the Big East tournament.
3. Miami (25-7). Plenty of quality wins: Utah, Duke, Virginia, Louisville, Notre Dame (twice).
4. Cal (23-10). Freshman forwards Jaylen Brown and Ivan Rabb are potential lottery picks, and point guard Tyrone Wallace could be a first-rounder, too.
5. Maryland (25-8). About as talented a team as you will find (four Terrapins are projected in the 2016 mock draft by DraftExpress.com), but Maryland lost four of its past eight games.
6. Arizona (25-8). The Wildcats haven't lost a game by double-digit points in the past 116 outings. Moreover, they have lost by more than four points only six times in the past three-plus seasons.
7. Iowa (21-10). Seemed to be in contention for a No. 1 seed back in February, but the Hawkeyes faded down the stretch, losing six of eight heading into NCAAs.
8. Colorado (22-11). Josh Scott and Wesley Gordon are a formidable and sizeable frontcourt, but wing George King has been a revelation, winning the Pac-12's Most Improved Player award.
9. Connecticut (24-10). Just two years removed from winning the national championship, the Huskies are led by wing Daniel Hamilton (12.4 points, 8.9 rebounds per game).
10. Temple (21-11). Guard Quenton DeCosey was a unanimous All-AAC selection for the league's regular-season champs. The Owls haven't been to the Sweet 16 since 2001.
11/11. Vanderbilt (19-13)/Wichita State (24-8). Seniors Fred VanVleet and Ron Baker are battle-tested Shockers; the Commodores beat Kentucky just two weeks ago.
12. South Dakota State (26-7). The Jackrabbits beat North Dakota State to win the Summit League tournament. Watch for freshman big man Mike Daum (15.2 ppg, 6.1 rpg).
13. Hawaii (27-5). First-year coach Eran Ganot is one of the young, up-and-comers in the business and can really make a name with a first-round upset.
14. Buffalo (20-14). Coach Nate Oats replaced Bobby Hurley after last season and led the Bulls to a repeat Mid-American Conference tournament championship.
15. UNC Asheville (22-11). The Bulldogs won the Big South tournament by beating Winthrop behind freshman Dwayne Sutton's 25 points and 18 rebounds.
16. Austin Peay (18-17). The Governors are making their first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2008, when they lost to Texas 74-54 as a No. 15 seed.

MIDWEST CAPSULES
1. Virginia (26-7). Cavaliers are fourth in adjusted defense, per kenpom.com rankings, and a surprising ninth offensively. But they are still prone to long scoring droughts.
2. Michigan State (29-5). If Sparty runs into Virginia in the regional finals, it's not the matchup Cavs fans would want. Michigan State has sent Virginia packing in the last two NCAAs.
3. Utah (26-8). Utes appear to have a favorable draw for their first two games, plus a short trip to Denver, and that should give them a second straight Sweet 16 berth.
4. Iowa State (21-11). If Cyclones can defend adequately and keep scoring, they are capable of reaching the regional semifinals.
5. Purdue (26-8). Boilermakers must get competent guard play. If that happens, they can use their height advantage to its fullest.
6. Seton Hall (25-8). Coach Kevin Willard was on the hot seat prior to the season. After Big East tourney title, the seat has cooled considerably.
7. Dayton (25-7). Flyers limp into the tournament with a 4-4 mark in their last eight games, but their recent tourney success can't be discounted.
8. Texas Tech (19-12). Tubby Smith reaches the tourney with his fifth different school, and perhaps his most unlikely. Might be one of his best coaching jobs.
9. Butler (21-10). Bulldogs were exposed a bit in the tungsten-tough Big East, but have the toughness and skill to be a tough out for anyone.
10. Syracuse (19-13). Orange stunk down the stretch, going 1-5 in their last six games. A one-and-done would surprise absolutely no one.
11. Gonzaga (26-7). Make it 18 straight NCAA appearances for the Zags, who delivered under pressure in the West Coast Conference tournament and have the size to control Seton Hall in the lane.
12. Little Rock (29-4). Picked fourth in the Sun Belt back in October, Trojans backed up their regular-season title with the tournament championship. Great defensive team.
13. Iona (22-10). Gaels can run and gun with almost anyone, thanks to guard A.J. English. Iowa State would have picked plenty of other first-round foes before this one.
14. Fresno State (25-9). Last time the Bulldogs went dancing, the coach was Jerry Tarkanian and the star player was Chris Herren. That's 15 years ago, in case you're wondering.
15. Middle Tennessee (24-9). Forward Reggie Upshaw is the reason the Blue Raiders are here, nailing two free throws Saturday with 2.9 seconds left to topple Old Dominion for the Conference USA tournament crown.
16. Hampton (21-10). Pirates are 0-7 all-time against Virginia, including a 69-40 beat-down last season. It might be a similar story on Thursday.

WEST CAPSULES
1. Oregon (28-6). The Ducks have won eight in a row since dropping back-to-back games to Cal and Stanford. They posted a resounding 88-57 victory over Utah in the championship game of the Pac-12 tournament.
2. Oklahoma (25-7). Two-time Big 12 Player of the Year Buddy Hield led the Sooners to a third-place finish in one of the nation's toughest conferences.
3. Texas A&M (26-8). The Aggies, led by senior guard Jalen Jones, won their first regular-season conference title since 1986.
4. Duke (23-10). The Blue Devils, who feature the dynamic duo of Grayson Allen and Brandon Ingram, are making their 21st consecutive NCAA Tournament appearance under legendary coach Mike Krzyzewski.
5. Baylor (22-11). The Bears lost four of their past six games, but they put up a fight in a 70-66 loss to Kansas in the semifinals of the Big 12 tournament.
6. Texas (20-12). The Longhorns lost five of their last nine during a brutal stretch run that included two games against No. 6 Oklahoma and No. 22 Baylor as well as matchups with No. 1 Kansas, No. 9 West Virginia and No. 21 Iowa State.
7. Oregon State (19-12). The Beavers, under second-year coach Wayne Tinkle, reached the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1990.
8. St. Joseph's (27-7). The Hawks won the Atlantic 10 Conference tourney to reach the NCAA Tournament for the seventh time in 21 seasons under coach Phil Martelli.
9. Cincinnati (22-10). The Bearcats posted their sixth consecutive 20-win season and reached the NCAA Tournament for the sixth year in a row.
10. VCU (24-10). The Rams, who reached the Final Four in 2011, are in the NCAA Tournament for the sixth year in a row.
11. Northern Iowa (22-12). The Panthers, who won 12 of their past 13 games, including dramatic victories over Wichita State and Evansville in the Missouri Valley tournament, feature four players with double-figure scoring averages.
12. Yale (22-6). The Ivy League champion Bulldogs are in the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1962.
13. UNC Wilmington (25-7). The Colonial Athletic Association champions are led by junior guard Chris Flemmings, who averages 16.1 points and 5.9 rebounds per contest.
14. Green Bay (23-12). The Phoenix won the Horizon League tournament to reach the NCAA Tournament for the first time in 20 years.
15. CSU Bakersfield (24-8). The Roadrunners, making their first NCAA Tournament appearance since moving to Division I in 2007, beat New Mexico State at the buzzer to win their first Western Athletic Conference tournament title.
16/16. Holy Cross (14-19)/Southern (22-12). Holy Cross is making its first NCAA Tournament appearance since 2007 after winning the Patriot League Tournament as a No. 9 seed. Southern, which finished fourth in the Southwestern Athletic Conference, earned its bid by beating Jackson State 54-53 to win the SWAC tournament.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Best & Worst Big Dance Draws
By Joe Nelson

Dissecting the bracket and the decisions of the selection committee is certainly a fun topic Monday morning. Here is a quick look at some of the favorable and unfavorable draws in the bracket. Neither is indicative of ultimate success in the tournament but some teams were dealt better hands than others.

Worst Draws

West Virginia (#3 East): The Mountaineers made it to the Big XII championship game, narrowly losing against #1 overall Kansas on Saturday. Most power ratings project West Virginia as a clear top 10 team but they have drawn a fairly difficult path as a #3 seed, while staring at the Oklahoma team they finished ahead of and just beat as a #2 seed. Stephen F. Austin hasn’t lost a game since the calendar turned to 2016 taking a 20 game winning streak into the tournament. The Lumberjacks beat VCU in the 2015 tournament and last season played a very close game with Utah in a 5/12 matchup. West Virginia’s success is built on creating turnovers yet they will have to face the only team in the nation with a higher defensive turnover rate in this matchup as these teams have similar strengths, except in 3-point shooting and free throw shooting where the Mountaineers are the much weaker team. Should West Virginia survive they could potentially face Notre Dame or Michigan, two powerhouse fan bases that have will have strong support in the Brooklyn venue.

Baylor (#5 West): The Bears lost as a #3 seed last season against Georgia State and Baylor will again be on upset alert this season in the opening round. In 2013 and 2014 Ivy League champion Harvard won NCAA tournament games and last season the Crimson just missed an upset over North Carolina in a two-point defeat as the league deserves some respect. This game will also take place in Providence giving the Bulldogs a huge location edge with the venue just an hour and a half drive from New Haven and with plenty of alumni in the region ready to snap up tickets for Yale’s first Big Dance appearance since 1962. As the spread suggests a Yale win won’t be much of an upset but if the Bears survive they will only have to go through the defending national champions with Duke sitting as the opposing #4 seed should the Blue Devils advance.

Indiana (#5 East): The Hoosiers don’t have a great argument to have been seeded much higher despite being the Big Ten champions in the regular season. The SEC regular season and tournament champion Kentucky certainly does have a valid gripe however and that potential matchup will be the highest profile game of the Round of 32. If Indiana keeps up its late season shooting they can beat anyone but the Kentucky backcourt seems likely to be a difficult matchup for the Hoosiers and the Des Moines crowd will likely have strong Kentucky support. The Hoosiers had better not get caught looking ahead to that game however as Chattanooga is a dangerous team that lost just five games all season and picked up wins over Georgia, Illinois, and Dayton. The Mocs have been very good at creating turnovers which could capitalize on the chief weakness of the Hoosiers and the 3-point defense for Chattanooga has also been pretty sound. Beat Chattanooga and Kentucky and Indiana’s reward is facing North Carolina in most scenarios as it won’t be easy for Tom Crean to get past the Sweet 16 for the first time since he took over in Bloomington.

Arizona (#6 South): The Wildcats have been unable to get over the hump in the Elite Eight the past two years and they will have a difficult path ahead if Sean Miller is to make his first Final Four in 2016. Arizona may have felt slighted to be a #2 seed last season but they at least played on the west coast. This season the Wildcats have been shipped across the country to Providence. To make matters worse they play on Thursday night but they won’t know the opponent until Tuesday night facing the winner of gem of a First Four matchup between Wichita State and Vanderbilt. Both of those squads wound up on the bubble but both teams have very high ceilings and will be considered viable sleepers to make it out of the first weekend. In the short history of the First Four, all five seasons one of the winning teams has advanced to at least the Round of 32, with three teams making the Sweet 16 and VCU making the Final Four in the initial year of the First Four in 2011.

Cal-State Bakersfield (#15 West): The hodgepodge WAC doesn’t get much respect as a whole as there are some pretty bad teams in the group but the top of the conference produced some respectable results around the country. Bakersfield is 24-8 to earn this spot after knocking off regular season champion New Mexico State last weekend. While the profile lacks any standout non-conference wins most power rankings would place the Roadrunners above several teams that received better placement in the bracket such as Chattanooga, Green Bay, Stony Brook, or Buffalo. In addition to the #15 seed and the difficult matchup with a Sooners team that was ranked #1 much of the year, the Roadrunners will feel like they are playing a road game drawing Oklahoma in Oklahoma City. It won’t be a shock in Bakersfield gives the Sooners a scare but the Roadrunners would have been a more viable upset threat with a seeding more consistent with their strong statistics.

Best Draws

Oregon (#1 West): The Ducks weren’t on the radar for most as a potential #1 seed but the Pac-12 was given great respect by the committee and the emphatic title game win pushed the Ducks to the top line after claiming both the regular season and conference tournament titles. Oregon gets to play the winner of the Holy Cross and Southern Matchup as they will have one of the most favorable opening round draws and getting to play the first weekend in Spokane is a big plus with no other west coast schools in that pod. Duke and Baylor don’t look overly formidable as the #4 and #5 teams in the group particularly on defense given Oregon’s fantastic offensive potential. Upsets are very possible in that Providence grouping as well with Duke and Baylor both set to face challenging opening games. If Oregon lives up to its seeding it would have an Anaheim regional final matchup with likely Oklahoma or Texas A&M two teams with high ceilings but plenty of inconsistency this season while avoiding some of the more proven candidates in those #2 and #3 slots.

Villanova (#2 South): The Wildcats have a big monkey on their back for tournament failures in recent years and not having the pressure of being a #1 seed might be a benefit. #1 overall Kansas is on the opposite side of the region but getting past the opening weekend has to be the priority for Villanova. UNC-Asheville rates as one of the weaker teams in the field losing six games in the Big South but a non-conference win over Georgetown should be enough to capture Villanova’s attention. The 7/10 draw of Iowa and Temple also looks promising as Temple rates as by far the weakest #10 seed and is a team that Villanova beat by 16 in February. While Iowa has a strong season profile this is a Hawkeyes team that has lost six of the last eight games to wipe away the great work the team did in January. Iowa lost to Penn State, Ohio State, and Illinois down the stretch while also losing two home games and snapping out of that funk looks challenging against a team like Villanova should the Hawkeyes even get that chance. Miami is a strong team as the #3 seed but perhaps less threatening than some of the other potential teams that could have been in that spot in the South like West Virginia, Kentucky, or Texas A&M.

Michigan State (#2 Midwest): Most instantly placed Michigan State as a team with a gripe about not being a #1 seed as the Spartans are the Vegas favorites to cut down the nets and it isn’t a hard case to make putting the Spartans on the #1 line. That said, a close look reveals some real benefits to this path if the Spartans can use that slight as motivation to get back to the Final Four. The #1 seed in the Midwest is Virginia, a team the Spartans have beat the past two seasons in the NCAA Tournament and that potential game would be in Chicago with a clear edge for Michigan State. Middle Tennessee State is a better team than any of the #1 seeds will face in the opening round but the Spartans should be comfortable with potential matchups with Syracuse or Dayton in the Round of 32. Utah also looks like the weakest of the #3 seeds and that potential Sweet 16 matchup would also be in Chicago for a huge location edge for the Spartans. Iowa State also looks like one of the weaker #4 seeds and they also line up in the Midwest should Virginia falter early.

Texas (#6 West): The Longhorns lost twice as many games as their NCAA Tournament seed this season but big wins pushed Texas into a favorable position. Northern Iowa had some big wins this season and as the spread suggests it won’t be an easy game but the Oklahoma City venue should be favorable and Texas is very comfortable playing at a slower pace. The Longhorns can’t help but looking ahead to a potential matchup with Texas A&M in the round of 32, a rival and team they had a chance to play early in the season and would have no shortage of motivation and support for. It should be a Big XII crowd at the Chesapeake Arena with Oklahoma also slated to play there which could help the cause. If the Longhorns advance to the Sweet 16 they would likely face a Sooners team they beat by 13 just a few weeks ago. Ultimately the Longhorns have to feel pretty good about how things worked out especially with two other #6 seeds having the challenge of facing a First Four winner while the other #6 Seton Hall has been sent across the country in a pod with three western teams.

Iona (#13 Midwest): Metro Atlantic fans can certainly cry foul for Monmouth’s exclusion but the conference was handed a great opportunity to actually pick up a win in the NCAA Tournament with the draw for Iona. Getting a #13 seed is probably generous for a squad that lost 10 games and whose only top 100 wins came against Monmouth. Of the #4 seeds Iona would want to face Iowa State would have to be high on the list as the Cyclones don’t have the devastating size up front that some of the other #3, #4, or #5 seeds have. Iona is led by an up-tempo offense and that is Iowa State’s preferred pace as well with the Cyclones shaky on defense at times as this game could be a bit of a track meet. Playing in the mountain air in Denver also could give the Gaels a boost as well as the conditioning for Iona should be excellent given the pace of play they employ.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Location Advantages
By Joe Nelson

While most of the NCAA tournament games will generally be played in unfamiliar venues and spacious arenas with mixed fan bases, it is worth taking a look at the travel required and the groupings of teams in each pod. Here is a brief look at some of the advantages and disadvantages presented by the selection committee this season with regards to location in the opening games.

Providence, Rhode Island:

The team most thrilled to be in Providence has to be Yale, hailing from New Haven, Connecticut just about 100 miles southwest of Rhode Island’s capital city. With Yale ending a long NCAA Tournament drought this season, the afternoon session tickets on Thursday featuring the NC-Wilmington/Duke matchup and the Yale/Providence matchup are hot tickets. Duke should get solid support in this grouping with a fan base that is well populated in the major northeast cities nearby, but like ACC counterpart Miami, the team has to be a bit disappointed to not be in Raleigh where #1 seeds North Carolina and Virginia will be playing Thursday. Buffalo fans have a manageable drive to Providence to support the #14 seeded MAC Tournament champions, but the evening sessions won’t likely have one overwhelming fan base. Arizona seems the most out of place in this group as the #6 seed facing long travel for a Thursday game in which they won’t know the opponent until Tuesday night, facing off with the winner of the highly anticipated Vanderbilt/Wichita State matchup in the First Four.

Raleigh, North Carolina:

ACC squads North Carolina and Virginia get a favorable placement in Raleigh with a very short trip for the Tar Heels in what should feel like a home game and the venue is less than 250 miles from the Virginia campus as well. While both of those #1 seeds are heavy favorites in the opening games, it is worth remembering that both teams really struggled in the first round games last season, barely escaping with victories playing in favorable venues in Charlotte and Jacksonville. Assuming the top seeds move on, the location edge may be more important on Saturday as the 8/9 matchup teams are all making long trips with North Carolina set to face the winner between Providence and USC and Virginia slated to face the winner of the Butler/Texas Tech game.

Des Moines, Iowa:

Three schools from Iowa are in the NCAA Tournament, but none finished with a high enough seed to earn a favorable spot in Des Moines. #1 overall seed Kansas had three attractive nearby options for the opening weekend games and Des Moines is the closest, just a few dozen miles closer to campus compared to St. Louis or Oklahoma City. Blue should dominate the seats on Saturday with Kentucky also in this grouping and even though it is close to a 10-hour drive from Lexington the Wildcats are always well supported. Indiana fans, like Kentucky fans, were certainly hoping to get a St. Louis draw as both teams have to feel a little snubbed by the committee both in seeding and location as well as staring at each other in a potential headlining matchup Saturday just to reach the Sweet 16. Connecticut vs. Colorado figures to be a great opening round 8/9 matchup and while Des Moines is a reasonable trip from Boulder, none of the other schools in this grouping figure to have much impact in making a dent on the Kansas crowd.

Denver, Colorado:

With no double-digit spreads in the four Thursday games in Denver, this grouping might be one to watch for potential upsets. None of the eight schools in this group are set particularly close to Denver, but flights are rather easy from Salt Lake City to the Mile High City in March as Utah is probably the biggest beneficiary to the Pepsi Center draw. Up tempo squads Iona and Iowa State face off in the early game Thursday and it will be interesting to if the altitude has an impact. Also of note with regards to the altitude will be how teams that are fairly reliant on lumbering big men will handle the thin air with Purdue and Gonzaga most noteworthy to watch. Utah is also led by star center Jakob Poeltl, but the elevation jump from Salt Lake City to Denver isn’t that dramatic compared with say West Lafayette to Denver. Iona and Seton Hall are the only eastern schools that were shipped out to Denver with Seton Hall as a #6 seed facing #11 seed Gonzaga perhaps drawing one of the bigger location disadvantages in the tournament relative to the seeding as the slight favorite status of the Bulldogs displays.

Brooklyn, New York:

There is a lot of college basketball played in the greater New York City area, but it has been a while since a prominent team emerged and this Brooklyn venue won’t provide any sort of dramatic home court edge to the schools in play. #2 seed Villanova can‘t complain about this landing spot, but they did not wind up in the East region which would have meant games in Philadelphia next week if the Wildcats can advance. West Virginia fans also have a reasonable trip as do Temple fans for an intriguing set of Friday games. Ultimately the big city setting may favor the powerful fan bases from the Midwest with Notre Dame and Iowa support likely to be strong and should Michigan survive Wednesday’s First Four matchup the Wolverines would face the Irish in a rivalry better known on the gridiron in what would be a highly-anticipated game. West Virginia would draw the winner of that game if they get by a dangerous #14 seed in Stephen F. Austin.

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma:

While the Sooners had a bit of late season slide, they were still handed a favorable NCAA Tournament draw, still getting a #2 seed ahead of #3 seed West Virginia who finished ahead of the Sooners in the standings and beat Oklahoma in the Big XII semifinals. Oklahoma is opposite an Oregon squad most consider to be the least proven of the #1 seeds in the West region and the opening weekend games are in Oklahoma City, just a half hour drive from Norman as crimson and cream figure to dominate Chesapeake Energy Arena. That could be overwhelming for Cal State Bakersfield in the program’s first NCAA Tournament appearance as well as potential second round foes VCU and Oregon State who are playing far from home. In the other pod, Texas and Texas A&M figure to receive strong support with a reasonable drive north for both fan bases in what could be a great second round storyline in a rematch from earlier this season between former conference foes.

St. Louis, Missouri:

Michigan State wasn’t given a #1 seed and the St. Louis venue is still a nearly eight-hour drive from East Lansing. That was the best option the Spartans had with only Des Moines as a venue at a similar distance. If Michigan State survives the opening weekend, they will be rewarded with games in Chicago which could really pay off in potential matchups with Utah or Virginia. While Michigan State should be well supported in St. Louis, the Gateway City will likely also receive a great deal of travelers taking I-70 from Dayton and Cincinnati. It is also a reasonable trip south from Madison as #7 seeds Wisconsin and Dayton received favorable placement for coin-flip opening round 7/10 matchups against Pittsburgh and Syracuse teams with more distance to cover. Weber State and Syracuse have the most substantial travel as most of the schools in this group should get fans at the Scotttade Center with #2 seeds Michigan State and Xavier likely bringing the most enthusiasm.

Spokane, Washington:

Nothing is terribly close by out west, but Oregon was dealt a favorable venue in Spokane, a seven-hour drive from Eugene and even closer trip from Portland where plenty of alumni reside. Oregon isn’t expected to have a tough time in the opening round vs. a Wednesday First Four winner and the potential second round matchup would feature an eastern squad Cincinnati or St. Joseph’s to give the Ducks a big advantage. Hawaii and California are technically western squads and Spokane certainly is the closest opening round venue available, but that is far from a short trip for those schools and #4 seeded Bears would travel much further east to Louisville should they advance. South Dakota State and Maryland also will have long journeys to get fans to Veterans Arena as this looks like a venue that will be overtaken by Ducks fans.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

March Madness Expert Bracket Advice: Highest Seeds With Toughest Path To Final
by Alan Matthews

You can have the NFL playoffs, NBA Finals or World Series. In my opinion, the greatest couple of weeks in American sports, from a fan and betting perspective, have arrived: March Madness. The NCAA Tournament takes the most action of any event annually in the U.S., even more than the Super Bowl. And I highly recommend to get to Vegas if you can for a March Madness day. Crazy.

The one negative of the NCAA Tournament: no doubt by now you have been inundated on Facebook or your social media network of choice by all the bracket picks of your amateur bracketologist friends. And if some woman wins my main bracket competition again this year simply by picking her favorite colors or the meaner mascot, then I'm going to lose my mind.

Sportsbooks as usual have some great specials for the Big Dance. A No. 16 seed is 0-124 all-time against No. 1s. But this season has seen more parity than any in years. That a No. 16 finally wins a game is +1000 with "no" at -2000. Bit surprised there is even a no option. Your top seeds this year are No. 1 overall seed Kansas in the South, Oregon in the West, North Carolina in the East and Virginia in the Midwest. I disagree with the Ducks and Cavaliers -- Villanova and Michigan State are more deserving -- but they aren't blatantly wrong. What was ridiculous was mediocre teams like Syracuse and especially Tulsa making the Big Dance over more deserving mid-majors like Monmouth and Saint Mary's.

The "over/under" for the number of No. 1 seeds making the Final Four in Houston is 1.5, with the under a -150 favorite. Three top seeds -- eventual national champion Duke, unbeaten Kentucky and Wisconsin -- made it last year. I think all three of those teams are better than the best clubs in this year's Big Dance.

So which high seeds have the toughest road to the Final Four? I believe the West Region is clearly the weakest. Oklahoma is the No. 2 behind Oregon with Texas A&M at No. 3 and Duke a No. 4. The Ducks are a Final Four-caliber team at home but have bad losses to the likes of UNLV, Boise State and Stanford. OU has superstar Buddy Hield, but if you can stop him you stop the Sooners, who are actually the +230 region favorites (Oregon at +350). I also think the Big 12 was a bit overrated. The SEC is terrible, so forget about A&M. The Aggies also have some really bad losses. Duke has two stellar players in Grayson Allen and freshman Brandon Ingram but is only about six deep due to injuries. I could see a team like No. 6 Texas stealing that region.

Most experts say the East Region is the toughest one. Maybe. North Carolina is the +140 favorite in the East, and the Heels probably have the most talent in the country, but they tend to lose focus at times (losses vs. unranked Northern Iowa, Texas and Notre Dame, although all three are in the Big Dance). The Heels will face either No. 8 USC or No. 9 Providence in the Round of 32. The Friars have two great players in Big East Player of the Year Kris Dunn and sophomore Ben Bentil, the conference's leading scorer. But it's the Sweet 16 where everyone is looking ahead to: UNC vs. probably No. 5 Indiana or No. 4 Kentucky. It's a shame those two have to play in the Round of 32. I'm not sold on IU as it struggles away from home. UK has the nation's best backcourt in freshman Jamal Murray and sophomore Tyler Ulis. And obviously that roster is full of five-star recruits. I do believe the winner of that UNC-UK game cruises to the Final Four as I'm not overly impressed with the bottom half of the draw led by No. 2 Xavier.

I might argue the South Region is tougher. Kansas is +150 there. KU won't have trouble with Austin Peay in Round 1, but No. 9 UConn, the AAC Tournament champion, could be waiting in the Round of 32. The Huskies are getting hot at the right time, just like the 2014 national championship team did as a No. 7 seed. Either No. 4 Cal or No. 5 Maryland likely would await in the Sweet 16. Both the Bears and Terps have multiple future NBA lottery picks on their rosters. The bottom half of the draw has No. 2 Villanova, as deep as anyone, No. 3 Miami (wins over Utah, Butler, Duke, Notre Dame, Virginia and Louisville, among others) and No. 6 Arizona, which can beat anyone. Maybe No. 7 Iowa will start playing like a Top-5 ranked team that it was for some of this season.

In the Midwest, Virginia appears to have a clear path to the regional final. Both No. 4 Purdue and No. 5 Iowa State in the top half of the bracket are very inconsistent. No. 2 Michigan State has it much harder in the bottom half, with teams like Utah (led by NBA lottery pick center Jakob Poeltl) and red-hot Seton Hall, the Big East Tournament champion. And that's if the Pirates even get past Gonzaga in the first round.

My Final Four: Villanova, Oklahoma, North Carolina and Michigan State. Three No. 2s and a No. 1.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

March Madness' 30-second shot clock could give edge to big betting chalk
By JASON LOGAN

The 2016 NCAA tournament marks the first time the “Big Dance” will be set to a 30-second tempo. College hoops adapted the shorter shot clock heading into this season, trimming five ticks from the previous 35-second countdown.

The difference in offensive tempo, which is the main reason why the NCAA made the adjustment, is obvious. Scoring is up across the country, which means so are the betting totals, with an average Over/Under number of 142.4 for the Round of 64 games. That’s nearly nine points higher than the average betting total for the 2015 tournament Round of 64, which was 133.6 points, and the highest average total for the Round of 64 in the past 19 years (as far back as our NCAAB database goes).

Those statistics are grinding the gears of NCAAB totals bettors, but those who bet pointspreads should be just as intrigued with the impact the 30-second shot clock has on the opening games of the 2016 NCAA tournament.

The basic math behind the new shot clock rule is that teams are forced to shoot the ball faster, therefore creating more possessions per game. More possessions equal more shots, and more shots should equal more points. Now, here’s where our theory comes into play…

With more possessions for each side, that means that the better team – the betting favorite - will have more cracks at the basketball, and consequently more opportunities to be, well… better. On the flipside, the lesser team – or the underdog – has more chances to succumb to the stronger opponent, or be bad. In the end, theoretically, the 30-second shot clock should help the favorite cover the spread more than the old 35-second clock did.

In the past, weaker programs could limit the amount of possessions a stronger foe got simply by milking the shot clock and slowing down the tempo. But, now under the 30-second rule, those extra five seconds to hold a beast at bay are gone and adding up quickly over the course of a game.

As a co-worker of mine pointed out this morning, underdogs have a much better chance of upsetting a favorite in a best-of-three playoff series but the odds quickly side with the better of the two teams the more games are played – such as a best-of-seven series. Think of every possession as a single game in a series played over 40 minutes of basketball.

This theory doesn’t quiet lend itself to just pointspread favorites in general, it really needs a solid divide in talent between two teams to take hold over the course of a contest. And rarely do you see a bigger gap in competition than during the opening rounds of the NCAA tournament.

No. 1 versus No. 16 matchups breed massive spreads when the NCAA’s elite faceoff against weaker, small-conference schools. We also see sizable lines in No. 2 versus No. 15 and No. 3 versus No. 14 games.

This year, the No. 1 Kansas Jayhawks are 26-point favorites against No. 16 Austin Peay, the No. 1 Virginia Cavaliers are 23.5-point chalk taking on No. 16 Hampton, and the No. 1 North Carolina Tar Heels are set at -22 versus No. 16 Florida Gulf Coast. The remaining No. 1 program, Oregon, will play the winner of the Holy Cross/Southern play-in game and will likely draw another generous spread.

Given our theory, the No. 1 teams – which have gone 20-15-1 ATS in the Round of 64 since 2006, and just 4-7-1 ATS the past three NCAA tournaments – possess an extra edge to cover those lofty spreads thanks to the shorter shot clock.

Now, we’re not just throwing this theory out there without providing at least some loose evidence to back it up. Under the 30-second shot clock in 2015-16, pointspread favorites of -12 or higher have gone 398-381-18 ATS – covering at a 51 percent clip. That’s an uptick from 49.5 percent (1,914-1,949-85 ATS) over the previous five college hoops campaigns, but nothing that’s going to send a cold shiver down the spines of bookmakers.

As mentioned above, our theory on the impact of the 30-second shot clock on NCAAB pointspreads pertains to massive mismatches and big favorites, so we need to get chalky. And doing so, we see that college basketball favorites of 20 or more points are 91-73-3 ATS (55.5%) in 2015-16. Sorting those big faves even further we find teams giving between 25.5 and 29.5 points went 19-10 (65.5%) and favorites of 30 or more points are 12-8 ATS (60%).

Comparing those 30-second shot clock-influenced results to past five 35-second seasons, we see favorites of 20 or more points were 372-345-12 ATS (52%), faves between 25.5 and 29.5 points finished 70-72-2 ATS (49%), and teams giving 30-plus points were 41-33 ATS (55%) from 2010-11 to 2014-15 – thanks in large part to 30-plus faves finishing 10-1 ATS in 2013-14.

So, if you’re scared off by some of the larger Round of 64 spreads on the board, as it pertains to those No. 1 teams - don’t sweat it. As the Rolling Stones once sang, time, time, time is on your side. Yes it is.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

March Madness Sleepers
By John Fisher

Listed below are teams listed at No. 5 or higher that I believe can make an impact in this year's NCAA Tournament.

South Regional

8) Uconn...This team reminds of the 2011 UConn team that went through its conference tournament in five days to clinch a berth to the tournament. They then took that momentum and the incredible play of point guard Kemba Walker to take down the nets. This year Uconn had to win or go deep in conference tournament and did so with a spectacular 4OT performance and a 3/4 court shot at the buzzer to force the 4th OT. Center Amidah Brimah is a 7 footer who is finally healthy and looking like a tough obstacle to score on with his shot blocking. Then you have sophomore sensation forward Daniel Hamilton that is a tough cover. Top-seed Kansas better not look pass these Uconn Huskies or it will be out in the second round.

5) Maryland...I had this squad as a Final Four 4 contender as did other head coaches in the beginning of the year. However, PG Melo Trimble injured his hamstring halfway through the season and has not been the same. Add to that his confidence has suffered as well. If he some how comes out of his shell (no pun intended), then this team can easily advance to the Elite 8 or Final 4. Forward Jake Layman is the key to this team. He creates matchup problems and helps free up forward Robert Carter and center Diamond Stone in the paint to get easy baskets.

11) Wichita State...Head coach Gregg Marshall is one of the best in the nation that can give opponents fits with his defensive schemes. Plus, the backcourt of Fred VanFleet and Ron Baker will make this team a tough out. Wichita State is ranked first in the nation in defensive efficiency and holds opponents below 59 pts a game. The Shockers held Vanderbilt to 50 points in the "First Four" game on Tuesday and both Arizona and Miami, Fl. better not overlook this team in the South.

West Regional

8) Saint Joseph's...The public finally got to see one of the best one two combos in G/Fs DeAndre' Bembry and Isaiah Miles for the Hawks. They are so difficult to guard because they can shoot, dribble, and drive to the basket. The tandem just made a very good VCU team look average in the Atlantic 10 Championship game. Bettors backing the No. 1 Ducks in this region should be weary of St. Joe's.

13) VCU....Speaking of teams that lost to the above Saint Joseph Hawks, these Rams won't be an easy out by any means. They play a deep bench and have a great inside outside combo in C Mo Alie-Cox and a guard tandem in Melvin Johnson and Jaquan Lewis. I expect the Rams to beat Oregon State in the first round and eventually meet No. 2 Oklahoma in the second round. This will be in a fight to the finish here and I won't be surprised if we see our first major upset with a #13 seed beating a #2 Seed.

East Regional

11) Michigan....There always seems to be a team each year that people feel that doesn't deserve to be in the dance. Then they come out and win a couple of games to say we belong. Maybe it will be Michigan this year. A lot say Michigan was a surprise. Tulsa to me was a big mistake. Michigan has a style that can be an issue for a lot of teams that might have a difficult time going small. West Virginia, a No. 3 seed in the East, uses a press defense to throttle opponents into turnovers. This won't happen against this Michigan Wolverines team that has four ball handlers and ranks in the Top 10 in turnover efficiency on offense. Beware #3 West Virginia.

7) Wisconsin...The Badgers won't repeat their great run last year to the Championship but they will be a tough out. Their defense and style are perfect for tournament play. Much like a poor mans Virginia, if the opponent doesn't pay attention to details the Badgers can sneak up on you. The Badgers would meet No. 2 seed Xavier in the next round and the Musketeers better play their 'A' game to,escape an upset bid from these Badgers.

Midwest Regional

5) Purdue...The imposing front court lineup of AJ Hammons, Isaac Haas, and Caleb Swanigan can carry them deep into the tournament . If their guards of Vince Edwards, Raphael Davis, and PJ Thompson can contribute there is no reason why this team can't get pass No. 4 Iowa State (over seeded) and No. 1 Virginia.

6) Seton Hall...Led by the electric sophomore guard tandem of Khadeen Carrington and Isaiah Whitehead this team just defeated in my opinion two top 5 caliber teams in Villanova and Xavier to win the Big East tournament. What was impressive to me is that both coaches of Villanova (Jay Wright) and Xavier (Chris Mack) said that Seton Hall's defense was the best they have seen all year. If I'm No. 3 Utah, I'd be shaking In my boots right now.

10) Syracuse...Similar to Michigan, this team has been told they shouldn't be in the dance. With a 1-5 record to end the season you can't say that coach Jim Boeheim didn't have influence on the NCAA tournament committee . This will give them some added incentive as they play against Dayton and possibly Michigan State. F Tyler Roberson and G Michael Gbinije can carry this team. If the Spartans can't find their outside shot it could be a major upset for the Orange over No. 2 Michigan State.

Quick Thoughts:

I believe the South is the toughest regional by far.

I believe the committee was off this year on seeding and certain teams being left out. I'm not sure if they even watched more than a couple of games. Sometimes looking at analytics amd numbers doesn't tell a story. They seem to have missed on a lot of fronts.

Duke should be a No. 6 Seed

Kentucky should be a No. 3 Seed

Texas A&M should be a No. 4 Seed

Wichita State should be a No. 7 Seed

Saint Joseph's should be a No. 6 Seed

Oregon State should be No. 10 Seed and VCU a No. 7 Seed

Indiana and Purdue should be No. 4 Seeds

Iowa State should be a No. 6 Seed

Seton Hall should be a No. 4/5 Seed

Syracuse, Vanderbilt, Tulsa, Oregon State should be home and replaced by Monmouth, Saint Mary's, Valparaiso and San Diego State

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapping the "OFF" Schools
By Bruce Marshall

"OFF THE BOARD" CONFERENCES IN BIG DANCE

Following are straight-up and against the spread results for all of the lower-echelon and “off the board” conferences in NCAA Tournament play since 1994.

While straight-up wins are certainly not common for these lower-echelon conference reps in NCAA action, they are not unheard of, either, as the best of this lot has been able to cause real damage in recent years.

Some of those who have famously succeeded in sub-regionals over the past decade include Mercer, North Dakota State, and Stephen F. Austin in 2014, Florida Gulf Coast in 2013, plus several others from recent memory including Morehead State, Siena, Winthrop, Bucknell, Vermont, Northwestern State, Montana, Lehigh, and Norfolk State.

Keep in mind that the lower-rung leagues have often tended to cover spreads, or not cover spread, en masse during sub-regional action.

In the past two seasons, those reps have fared quite well, including last season when the listed conferences below stood 7-4 vs. the line (excluding the 16 vs. 16 play-in games), bringing their two-season spread mark since 2014 to 15-7.

And while there were no straightaway upsets last season, there were in 2014, when aforementioned Mercer, North Dakota State, and Stephen F. Austin notched straight-up wins. Proceed with some caution, however, as those results have often reversed quickly in past years.

Some of these lower-echelon leagues that have tended to fare better than others in recent years. Note that SoCon entries, helped by a 4-0 spread mark by Steph Curry’s Wildcats in 2008, are 14-3-1 vs. the number their last 18 in the Dance, while America East reps have covered 6 of their last 7. Big South teams are undefeated their last four. And since 2005, Ohio Valley reps are 11-4 vs. the number.

Conversely, the Big Sky is just 2-7 vs. the spread its last nine in the Dance, while the SWAC is 3-7 vs. the points it last ten. Meanwhile, the Patriot has dropped four of its last six, with heavy losses the past two seasons (American U in 2014, and Lafayette a year ago).

While each game must be handicapped upon its own specifics, tourney-wide trends such as similar spread performance by the lower-echelon leagues have recurred often enough that we suggest particular attention be paid to these teams in the Thursday action in next week’s sub-regionals, which could provide similar clues about the Friday games.

“Ws” and “Ls” below reflect the pointspread result for the “off” team in the matchup:

AMERICA EAST (4-23 Straight Up since 1994, 10-17 Against the Spread):
1994-Drexel (+9½) 39-61 L vs. Temple 39-61
1995-Drexel (+16) 49-73 L vs. Ok. State
1996-Drexel (+6) 75-63 W vs. Memphis, Drexel (+6) 58-69 L vs. Syracuse
1997-Bucknell (+7½) 52-81 L vs. Tulsa
1998-Delaware (+16) 56-95 L vs. Purdue
1999-Delaware (+10½) 52-62 W vs. Tennessee
2000-Hofstra (+12½) 66-86 L vs. Ok. State
2001-Hofstra (+7) 48-61 L vs. UCLA
2002-Boston U. (+24) 52-90 L vs. Cincinnati
2003-Vermont (+25½) 51-80 L vs. Arizona
2004-Vermont (+20) 53-70 W vs. UConn
2005-Vermont (+20) 60-57 (OT) W vs. Syracuse, Vermont (+8½) 61-72 L vs. Michigan State
2006-Albany (+21½) 59-72 W vs. UConn
2007-Albany (+8½) 57-84 L vs. Virginia
2008-UM-Baltimore County (+16½) 47-66 L vs. Georgetown
2009-Binghamton (+22) 62-86 L vs. Duke
2010-Vermont (+16) 56-79 L vs. Syracuse
2011-Boston U (+22½) 53-72 W vs. Kansas
2012-Vermont (-4) 71-59 W play-in vs. Lamar, Vermont (+16) 58-77 L vs. North Carolina
2013-Albany (+19) 61-73 W vs. Duke
2014-Albany (-2½) 71-64 W play-in game vs. Mount Saint Mary’s, Albany (+22) 55-67 W vs. Florida
2015-Albany (+13) 60-69 W vs. Oklahoma

ATLANTIC SUN (5-23 SU, 14-13-1 ATS):
1994-Charleston (+9) 58-68 L vs. Wake Forest, Central Florida (+23½) 67-98 L vs. Purdue 67-98
1995-Florida International (+31) 56-92 L vs. UCLA
1996-Central Florida (+30) 70-92 W vs. UMass
1997-Charleston (+6½) 75-66 W vs. Maryland, Charleston (+5½) 69-73 W vs. Arizona
1998-Charleston (+14) 57-67 W vs. Stanford
1999 Samford (+15½) 43-69 L vs. St. John’s
2000-Samford (+13½) 65-79 L vs. Syracuse
2001-Georgia State (+7½) 50-49 W vs. Wisconsin, Georgia State (+14) 60-79 L vs. Maryland
2002-Florida Atlantic (+18) 78-86 W vs. Alabama
2003-Troy State (+12) 59-71 N vs. Xavier
2004-Central Florida (+14) 44-53 W Pittsburgh
2005-Central Florida (+18) 71-77 W vs. UConn
2006-Belmont (+24) 44-78 L vs. UCLA
2007-Belmont (+16½) 55-80 L vs. Georgetown
2008-Belmont (+20) W 70-71 W vs. Duke
2009-East Tennessee State (+20) 62-72 W vs. Pitt
2010-East Tennessee State (+19) 71-100 L vs. Kentucky
2011-Belmont (+4) 58-72 L vs. Wisconsin
2012-Belmont (+3½) 59-74 L vs. Georgetown
2013-Florida Gulf Coast (+13½) 78-68 W vs. Georgetown, Florida Gulf Coast (+7) 81-71 W vs. San Diego State, Florida Gulf Coast (+13) 50-62 W vs. Florida
2014-Mercer (+13) 78-71 W vs. Duke, Mercer (+8) 63-83 L vs. Tennessee
2015-North Florida (-3½) 77-81 L play-in game vs. Robert Morris.

Note: known as Trans-America Conference until 2001

BIG SKY (3-22 SU, 11-13-1 ATS):
1994-Boise State (+18) 58-67 W vs. Louisville
1995-Weber State (+15) 79-72 W vs. Michigan State, Weber State (+7½) 51-53 W vs. Georgetown
1996-Montana St. (+9) 55-88 L vs. Syracuse
1997 Montana (+20½) 54-92 L vs. Kentucky
1998-Northern Arizona (+14½) 62-65 W vs. Cincinnati
1999-Weber State (+13) 76-74 W vs. North Carolina, Weber State (+8) 72-80 OT N vs. Florida
2000-Northern Arizona (+14) 56-61 W vs. St. John’s
2001-CS Northridge 75-99 L (+12½) vs. Kansas
2002-Montana (+20½) 62-81 W vs. Oregon
2003-Weber State (+6½) 74-81 L vs. Wisconsin
2004-Eastern Washington (+16½) 56-75 L vs. Oklahoma
2005-Montana (+20½) 77-88 W vs. Washington
2006-Montana +7) 87-79 W vs. Nevada, Montana (+10½) 56-69 L vs. Boston College
2007-Weber State (+20) 42-70 L vs. UCLA
2008-Portland State (+22) 61-85 L vs. Kansas
2009-Portland State (+10½) 59-77 L vs. Xavier
2010-Montana (+9) 57-62 W vs. New Mexico
2011-Northern Colorado (+14½) 50-68 L vs. San Diego State
2012-Montana (+9) 49-73 L vs. Wisconsin
2013- Montana (+12 ½) 34-81 L vs. Syracuse
2014-Weber State (+20) 59-68 W vs. Arizona
2015-Eastern Washington (+8) 74-84 L vs. Georgetown

BIG SOUTH: (3-20 SU, 10-13 ATS):
1996-UNC Greensboro (+18) 61-66 W vs. Cincinnati
1997-Charleston Southern (+18) 75-109 L vs. UCLA
1998-Radford (+31) 63-99 L vs. Duke 63-99
1999-Winthrop (+28) 41-80 L vs. Auburn
2000-Winthrop (+16½) 50-74 L vs. Oklahoma
2001-Winthrop (-2½) 67-71 L play-in vs. Northwestern State
2002-Winthrop (+33½) 37-84 L vs. Duke
2003-UNC Asheville (+1) 82-74 W play-in vs. Texas Southern, UNC Asheville (+27½) 61-82 W vs. Texas
2004-Liberty (+24) 63-82 W vs. Saint Joseph’s
2005-Winthrop (+13½) 64-74 W vs. Gonzaga
2006-Winthrop (+7) 61-63 W vs. Tennessee
2007-Winthrop (-3½) 74-64 W vs. Notre Dame, Winthrop (+3) 61-75 L vs. Oregon
2008-Winthrop (+9½) 40-71 L vs. Washington State
2009-Radford (+25½) 58-101 L North Carolina
2010-Winthrop (-3) 44-61 L play-in vs. Arkansas-Pine Bluff
2011-UNC Asheville (-4½) 81-77 L play-in vs. UA-Little Rock, UNC Asheville (+18) 51-74 L vs. Pittsburgh
2012-UNC Asheville (15½) W 65-72 vs. Syracuse
2013-Liberty (+2½) 72-73 W play-in vs. North Carolina A&T
2014-Coastal Carolina (+21) 59-70 W vs. Virginia
2015-Coastal Carolina (+20) 72-86 W vs. Wisconsin. No reps ‘94-95

METRO-ATLANTIC (6-23 SU, 13-16 ATS):
1994-Loyola Md. (+24½) 55-81 L vs. Arizona
1995-St. Peter’s (+22) 51-68 W vs. UMass, Manhattan (+7½) 77-67 W vs. Oklahoma, Manhattan (+6½) 54-64 L vs. Arizona
1996-Canisius (+13) 43-72 L vs. Utah
1997-Fairfield (+27) 74-82 W vs. North Carolina
1998-Iona (+5½) 61-63 W vs. Syracuse 61-63 W
1999-Siena (+7) 80-94 L Arkansas
2001-Iona (+14½) 59-74 L vs. Maryland
2001-Iona (+10½) 70-72 W vs. Ole Miss
2002-Siena (-4½) 81-77 L play-in vs. Alcorn State, Siena (+28½) 70-85 W vs. Maryland
2003-Manhattan (+7½) 65-76 L vs. Syracuse
2004-Manhattan (+5) 75-60 W vs. Florida, Manhattan (+7) 80-84 W vs. Wake Forest
2005-Niagara (+12) L 67-84 vs. Oklahoma
2006-Iona (+7½) 64-80 L vs. LSU
2007-Niagara (-2½) 77-69 W play-in vs. Florida A&M, Niagara (+19) 67-107 L vs. Kansas
2008-Siena (+6½) 83-62 W vs. Vanderbilt, Siena (+5½) 72-84 L vs. Villanova
2009-Siena (+3) 74-72 W 2-OT vs. Ohio State, Siena (+12) 72-79 W vs. Louisville
2010-Siena (+4½) 64-72 L vs. Purdue
2011-St. Peter’s (+14½) 43-65 L vs. Purdue
2012-Loyola Md. (+17½) 59-78 L vs. Ohio State
2013-Iona (+14½) 70-95 L vs. Syracuse
2014-Manhattan (+16½) 64-71 W vs. Louisville
2015-Manhattan (-9) 64-74 L play-in game vs. Hampton

MEAC (6-22 SU, 16-12 ATS):
1994-NC A&T (+29) 79-94 W vs. Arkansas
1995-NC A&T (+23) 47-79 L vs. Wake Forest
1996-S.C. State (+30½) 54-92 L vs. Kansas
1997-Coppin State (+18½) 78-65 W vs. South Carolina, Coppin State (+11½) 81-82 W vs. Texas
1998-S.C. State (+26½) 67-82 W vs. Kentucky
1999-Florida A&M (+46) 58-99 W vs. Duke
2000-S.C. State (+31½) 65-84 W vs. Stanford
2001-Hampton (+17½) 58-57 W vs. Iowa State, Hampton (+13) 57-76 L vs. Georgetown
2002-Hampton (+12½) 67-78 W vs. UConn
2003-S.C. State (+27) 54-71 W vs. Oklahoma
2004-Florida A&M (+4) 72-57 W play-in vs. Lehigh, Florida A&M (+28) 76-96 W vs. Kentucky
2005-Delaware State (+26½) 46-57 W vs. Duke
2006-Hampton (+3½) 49-71 L play-in game vs. Monmouth
2007-Florida A&M (+2½) 69-77 L play-in vs. Niagara
2008-Coppin State (+3) 60-69 L play-in vs. Mount Saint Mary’s
2009-Morgan State (+16) L 54-82 vs. Oklahoma
2010-Morgan State (+16½) 50-77 L vs. West Virginia
2011-Hampton (+23) 45-87 W vs. Duke
2012-Norfolk State (+21½) 86-84 W vs. Missouri, Norfolk State (+14½) 50-84 L vs. Florida
2013-North Carolina A&T (-2½) 73-72 L play-in vs. Liberty, North Carolina A&T (+26) 48-79 L vs. Louisville
2014-NC Central (+8½) 75-93 L vs. Iowa State
2015-Hampton (+) 74-64 W play-in game vs. Manhattan, Hampton (+34) 56-79 W vs. Kentucky

NORTHEAST (3-22 SU, 13-11-1 ATS):
1994-Rider (+19) 46-64 W vs. UConn
1995-Mt. St, Mary’s (+31) 67-113 L vs. Kentucky
1996-Monmouth (+14) 44-68 L vs. Marquette
1997-Long Island (+13½) 91-101 W vs. Villanova
1998-FDU (+14½) 85-93 W vs. UConn
1999-Mt. St. Mary’s (+26) 53-76 W vs. Michigan State
2000-Central Connecticut (+18) 78-88 W vs. Iowa State
2001-Monmouth (+35½) 52-95 L vs. Duke
2002-Central Connecticut (+15) 54-71 L vs. Pittsburgh
2003-Wagner (+20½) 61-87 L vs. Pittsburgh
2004-Monmouth (+20½) 52-85 L vs. Mississippi State
2005-Fairleigh Dickinson (+26) 55-67 W vs. Illinois
2006-Monmouth (-3½) 71-49 W play-in vs. Hampton, Monmouth (+19½) 45-58 W vs. Villanova
2007-Central Connecticut (+21) 57-78 N vs. Ohio State
2008-Mount Saint Mary’s (-3) 69-60 W play-in vs. Coppin State, Mount Saint Mary’s (+25) 74-113 L vs. North Carolina
2009-Robert Morris (+17) 62-77 W vs. Michigan State
2010-Robert Morris (+17) 70-73 W (OT) vs. Villanova
2011-Long Island (+18) 87-102 W vs. North Carolina
2012-Long Island (+19) 67-89 L vs. Michigan State
2013-Long Island (+1) L 55-68 play-in vs. James Madison
2014-Mount Saint Mary’s +2½ 64-71 L play-in game vs. Albany
2015-Robert Morris (+3½) 81-77 W play-in game vs. North Florida, Robert Morris (+22½) 56-85 L vs. Duke

OHIO VALLEY (4-22 SU, 16-10 ATS):
1994-Tennessee State (+18½) 70-83 W vs. Kentucky
1995-Murray State (+20) 70-80 W vs. North Carolina
1996-Austin Peay (+15) 79-90 W vs. Georgia Tech
1997-Murray State (+23½) 68-71 W vs. Duke
1998-Murray State (+12½) 74-97 L vs. Rhode Island
1999-Murray State (+8) 58-72 L vs. Ohio State
2000-SE Missouri State (+12½) 61-64 W vs. LSU
2001-Eastern Illinois (+21½) 76-101 L vs. Arizona
2002-Murray State (+9) 68-85 L vs. Georgia
2003-Austin Peay (+16) 64-86 L vs. Louisville
2004-Murray State (+9) 53-72 L vs. Illinois
2005-Eastern Kentucky (+16½) 64-72 W vs. Kentucky
2006-Murray State (+11½) 65-69 W vs. North Carolina
2007-Eastern Kentucky (+27½) 65-86 W vs. North Carolina
2008-Austin Peay (+15½) 54-74 L vs. Texas
2009-Morehead State (-3) 58-43 W play-in vs. Alabama State, 58-43, Morehead State (+21) W vs. Louisville, 54-74
2010-Murray State (+2½) 66-65 W vs. Vanderbilt, Murray State (+4½) 52-54 W vs. Butler
2011-Morehead State (+9½) 62-61 W vs. Louisville, Morehead State (+4) 48-65 L vs. Richmond
2012-Murray State (-5) 58-41 W vs. Colorado State, Murray State (+5) 53-62 L vs. Marquette
2013-Belmont (+4½) 64-81 L vs. Arizona
2014-Eastern Kentucky (+14) 69-80 W vs. Kansas
2015-Belmont (+16½) 67-79 W vs. Virginia

PATRIOT (3-22 SU, 13-12 ATS):
1994-Navy (+20½) 53-76 L vs. Missouri
1995-Colgate (+27) 68-82 W vs. Kansas
1996-Colgate (+28) 59-68 W vs. UConn
1997-Navy (+19½) 61-75 W vs. Utah
1998-Navy (+28) 52-88 L vs. North Carolina
1999-Lafayette (+17½) 54-75 L vs. Miami Florida
2000-Lafayette (+21½) 47-73 L vs. Temple
Holy Cross (+20) 68-72 W vs. Kentucky
2002-Holy Cross (+28½) 59-70 W vs. Kansas
2003-Holy Cross (+10) 68-72 W vs. Marquette
2004-Lehigh (-4) 57-72 L play-in vs. Florida A&M
2005-Bucknell (+13½) 64-63 W vs. Kansas, Bucknell (+8) 62-71 L vs. Wisconsin
2006-Bucknell (+5) 59-55 W vs. Arkansas, Bucknell (+8) 56-72 L vs. Memphis
2007-Holy Cross (+7½) 51-61 L vs. Southern Illinois
2008-American (+19½) 57-72 W vs. Tennessee
2009-American (+16) 67-80 W vs. Villanova
2010-Lehigh (+25½) 74-90 W vs. Kansas
2011-Bucknell (+20) 52-81 L vs. UConn
2012-Lehigh (+12) 75-70 W vs. Duke
Lehigh (+4) 58-70 L vs. Xavier
2013-Bucknell (+3½) 56-58 W vs. Butler
2014-American (+14) 35-75 L vs. Wisconsin
2015-Lafayette (+22½) 52-93 L vs. Villanova

SOUTHERN (5-22 SU, 18-8-1 ATS):
1994-UT Chattanooga (+12) 73-102 L vs. Kansas
1995-UT Chattanooga (+16) 71-100 L vs. UConn
1996-Western Carolina (+20) 71-73 W vs. Purdue
1997-UT Chattanooga (+9) 73-70 W vs. Georgia, UT Chattanooga (+10) 75-63 W vs. Illinois, UT Chattanooga (+8) 65-71 W vs. Purdue
1998-Davidson (+15) 61-80 L vs. Michigan
1999-Charleston (-2) 53-62 L vs. Tulsa
2000-Appalachian State (+13½) 61-87 L vs. Ohio State
2001-UNC Greensboro (+30) 60-89 W vs. Stanford
2002-Davidson (+12½) 64-69 W vs. Ohio State
2003-East Tennessee State (+12½) 73-76 W vs. Wake Forest
2004-East Tennessee State (+9) 77-80 W vs. Cincinnati
2005-Chattanooga (+17½) 54-70 W vs. Wake Forest
2006-Davidson (+10½) 62-70 W vs. Ohio State
2007-Davidson (+7) 70-82 L vs. Maryland
2008-Davidson (-2) 82-76 W vs. Gonzaga, Davidson (+5) 74-70 W vs. Georgetown, Davidson (+4½) 73-56 W vs. Wisconsin, Davidson (+9½) 57-59 W vs. Kansas
2009-Chattanooga (+20½) 47-103 L vs. UConn
2010-Wofford (+10) 49-53 W vs. Wisconsin
2011-Wofford (+8½) 66-74 W vs. BYU
2012-Davidson (+7) 62-69 N vs. Louisville
2013-Davidson (+3½) 58-59 W vs. Marquette
2014-Wofford (+15) 40-57 L vs. Michigan
2015-Wofford (+7½) 53-56 W vs. Arkansas

SOUTHLAND (4-22 SU, 10-15-1 ATS):
1994-SW Texas State (+16) 60-78 L vs. UMass
1995-Nicholls State (+13½) 72-96 L vs. Virginia
1996-NE Louisiana (+19½) 50-62 W vs. Wake Forest
1997-SW Texas State (+22) 46-78 L vs. Minnesota
1998-Nicholls State (+26) 60-99 L vs. Arizona
1999-UT San Antonio (+26½) 66-91 W vs. UConn
2000-Lamar (+32½) 55-82 W vs. Duke
2001-Northwestern State (+2½) 71-67 W play-in vs. Winthrop, Northwestern State (+26½) 54-96 L vs. Illinois
2002-McNeese State (+10½) 58-70 L vs. Mississippi State
2003-Sam Houston (+19) 55-85 L vs. Florida
2004-UT San Antonio (+24) 45-71 L vs. Stanford
2005-SE Louisiana (+18½) 50-63 W vs. Oklahoma State
2006-Northwestern State (+6½) 64-63 W vs. Iowa, Northwestern State (+8) 54-67 L vs. West Virginia
2007-Texas A&M-Corpus Christi (+13) 63-76 N vs. Wisconsin
2008-UT-Arlington (+25) 63-87 W vs. Memphis
2009-Stephen F. Austin (+12) 44-59 L vs. Syracuse
2010-Sam Houston State (+12½) 59-68 W vs. Baylor
2011-UT San Antonio (-3) 70-61 W play-in vs. Alabama State, UT San Antonio (+24½) 46-75 L vs. Ohio State
2012-Lamar (+4) 59-71 L play-in vs. Vermont
2013-Northwestern State (+20) 47-79 L vs. Florida.
2014-Stephen F. Austin (+6½) 77-75 W in OT vs. Virginia Commonwealth, Stephen F. Austin (+9½) 60-77 L vs. UCLA
2015-Stephen F. Austin (+6½) 50-57 L vs. Utah

SWAC (1-22 SU, 10-13 ATS):
1994-Texas Southern (+20) 70-82 W vs. Duke
1995-Texas Southern (+18) 78-79 W vs. Arkansas
1996-Miss. Valley St. (+26) 56-93 L vs. Georgetown
1997-Jackson State (+35½) 64-78 W vs. Kansas
1998-Prairie View (+36½) 52-110 L vs. Kansas
1999-Alcorn State (+22) 57-69 W vs. Stanford
2000-Jackson State (+27½) 47-71 W vs. Arizona
2001-Alabama State (+28½) 35-69 L vs. Michigan State
2002-Alcorn State (+4½) 77-81 W play-in vs. Siena
2003-Texas Southern (-1) 74-82 L play-in vs. UNC Asheville
2004-Alabama State (+34) 61-96 L vs. Duke
2005-Alabama A&M (+6) 69-79 L play-in vs. Oakland
2006-Southern U (+24½) 54-70 W vs. Duke
2007-Jackson State (+28) 69-112 L vs. Florida
2008-Mississippi Valley State (+31½) 29-70 L vs. UCLA
2009-Alabama State (+3) 43-58 L play-in vs. Morehead State
2010-Arkansas-Pine Bluff (+3) 61-44 W play-in vs. Winthrop, Arkansas Pine-Bluff (+14½) 44-73 L vs. Duke
2011-Alabama State (+3) 61-70 L play-in vs. UT San Antonio
2012-Mississippi Valley State (-1) 58-59 L vs. Western Kentucky
2013-Southern U (+22½) 58-64 W vs. Gonzaga
2014-Texas Southern (+3½) 69-81 L play-in game vs. Cal Poly
2015-Texas Southern (+23 ½) 72-93 W vs. Arizona

SUMMIT (4-20 SU, 9-14-1 ATS):
1996-Valparaiso (+18) 51-90 L vs. Arizona
1997-Valparaiso (+10) 66-73 W vs. Boston College
1998-Valparaiso (+12) 70-69 W vs. Ole Miss, Valparaiso (+7½) 83-77 OT W vs. Florida State, Valparaiso (+8) 68-74 W vs. Rhode Island
1999-Valparaiso (+20) 60-82 L vs. Maryland
2000-Valparaiso (+25½) 38-65 L vs. Michigan State
2001-Southern Utah (+14) 65-68 W vs. Boston College
2002-Valparaiso (+7½) 68-83 L vs. Kentucky
2003-IUPUI (+26½) 64-95 L vs. Kentucky
2004-Valparaiso (+18½) 49-76 L vs. Gonzaga
2005-Oakland (-6) W 79-69 play-in vs. Alabama A&M, Oakland (+27½) L 68-96 vs. North Carolina
2006-Oral Roberts (+12) 78-94 L vs. Memphis
2007-Oral Roberts (+6½) 54-70 L vs. Washington State
2008-Oral Roberts (+8½) 63-82 L vs. Pittsburgh
2009-North Dakota State (+10) 74-84 N vs. Kansas
2010-Oakland (+10) L 66-89 vs. Pittsburgh
2011-Oakland (+10) 81-85 W vs. Texas
2012-South Dakota State (+7½) 60-68 L vs. Baylor
2013-South Dakota State (+11) L 56-71 Michigan
2014-North Dakota State (+3½) 80-75 W in OT vs. Oklahoma, North Dakota State (+4) 44-63 L vs. San Diego State (+22)
2015-North Dakota State (+17½) 76-86 W vs. Gonzaga. No reps ‘94-95.

Note: known as Mid-Continent Conference until 2007

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

1st & 2nd Round Betting Trends
By Marc Lawrence

The 2016 NCAA Tournament has arrived and with it a final chance to pad our bankrolls for the season.

To make that shining moment happen, let’s take a look at how teams in this event have fared most recently in the past.

Because it’s my belief that success in handicapping this tournament is tantamount to breaking the action down into rounds, let’s take a look at some of the more relevant and most recent trend results that have occurred in Round One and Round Two games. Note: I consider the First Four play-in games as qualifying contests, with games thereafter starting with Round One.

Here are observations gleaned from the 2016 PLAYBOOK NCAA Tournament guide.

Note all results are since 1991 unless noted otherwise. In addition, all results are ATS (Against The Spread) unless noted otherwise.

PLANTING THE SEED

No. 1 seeds are 100-0 SU and 54-45-1 ATS vs. No. 16 seeds, including 12-4 ATS if 3-0 SUATS last three games (North Carolina).

No. 2 seeds are 93-7 SU and 43-53-4 ATS vs. No. 15 seeds, including 4-13-2 ATS when both teams are off a win (Michigan State).

No. 3 seeds are 86-14 SU and 51-47-2 ATS vs. No. 14 seeds, including 36-1 SU & 27-9-1 ATS off a SU favorite loss (none).

No. 4 seeds are 80-20 SU and 54-44-2 ATS vs. No. 13 seeds, including 37-20 ATS as favorites of less than 10 points (California and Iowa State).

No. 5 seeds are 63-37 SU and 46-52-1 ATS vs. No. 12 seeds, including 15-13 SU and 9-17-2 ATS the last seven years (Baylor, Indiana, Maryland and Purdue).
FYI: last year was only the third time since 1988 that a No. 12 seed failed to beat a No. 5 seed.

No. 6 seeds are 67-33 SU and 53-45-2 ATS vs. No. 11 seeds, including 14-5 SU and 13-5-1 ATS off a loss of 13 or more points (Arizona, Notre Dame and Texas).

No. 7 seeds are 58-42 SU and 54-45-1 ATS vs. No. 10 seeds, including 3-7 SU and ATS 2-8 ATS versus a No. 10 seed that is off back-to-back SU losses (Dayton).

No. 8 seeds are 52-48 SU and 49-49-2 ATS vs. No. 9 seeds, including 7-2 SU ad 8-1 ATS versus an opponent off BB losses (none).

NCAA 1ST ROUND NOTES

Conference tournament champs most recent trends in this round:
ACC: 5-8-1, A-10: 4-1, Big 10: 3-1-1, Big 12: 1-5, Big East: 6-0, Big West: 2-8, Colonial: 8-4-2, CUSA: 5-8, Horizon: 1-3, MAC: 0-3, Missouri Valley: 5-1-1, Mtn West: 0-3, Pac-12: 8-2, Sun Belt: 3-0, SEC: 3-5, West Coast: 1-3.

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Best team records (SU) in this round:
North Carolina 13-0; Maryland 11-0; Kansas 9-0; Gonzaga 7-0; Syracuse 6-0; Arizona & Kentucky 5-0; Butler & Michigan St 4-0; Purdue 14-1; Wisconsin 8-1; Pittsburgh 7-1.

Worst team records (SU) in this round:
Hawaii 0-3.

Best team ATS records in this round:
Butler & Purdue 4-0; Dayton & Oregon 3-0; Michigan St 3-0-1; Tulsa 8-1; VCU & Xavier 7-1; Miami Fla, Michigan, No Iowa, Syracuse & Texas A&M 5-1; Indiana 6-2.

Worst team ATS records in this round:
Notre Dame & Texas 0-5; St. Joseph's 0-4; Cincinnati & Oklahoma 0-3; Temple 1-5.

Best conference ATS records in this round:
Sun Belt: 4-0, Ivy: 3-0, Colonial: 5-1, Missouri Valley: 4-1, Pac-12: 10-3 as dogs, Big Ten: 20-8.

Worst conference ATS records in this round:
Atlantic 10: 1-4, Big West: 1-4, Big 12: 5-14, CUSA: 3-7.

NCAA 2ND ROUND NOTES

#1 Seeds are 2-14 off 3+ SU/ATS wins

#3 Seed favs > 2 pts are 17-6 vs opp off SU dog win

#5 Seed dogs are 0-6 L5Y

#6 Seed dogs 3 > pts are 3-7-1 since 2006

#7 Seed dogs of 3 > pts are 3-16 vs opp off BB SU wins

#8 Seed dogs 14 > pts are 6-1 since 1997

#9 Seed dogs off a SU dog win are 8-17

#10 Seed or worse favs are 15-4

#13 or worse Seeds are 7-34 SU & 11-29-1

Best 2016 Tourney Team SU records in this round:
Michigan St 7-0; Kentucky & Xavier 5-0; Wisconsin 4-0; Baylor 3-0; Duke 14-1; Arizona 9-1.

Worst 2016 Tourney Team SU records in this round:
Maryland 0-5; California 0-4; Pittsburgh, Texas, Texas A&M & Villanova 0-3; Cincinnati 1-5.

Best 2016 Tourney Team ATS records in this round:
Arizona & Xavier 7-0; UConn, Baylor, Michigan, Tulsa & Wisconsin 3-0; West Virginia 6-1; Kentucky & Oregon 4-1; VCU & Wichita St 3-1.

Worst 2016 Tourney Team ATS records in this round:
Pittsburgh 0-7; Maryland 0-5; Notre Dame & Villanova 0-3; Indiana 1-6; Texas & Virginia 1-4; Kansas 1-3

Best Conference ATS records in this round:
Pac-12: 9-0 L3Y, SEC: 10-2 as favs, CUSA: 4-1 as favs, Big East: 7-2 as favs 8 > pts, Big 12: 23-8 as favs.

Worst Conference ATS records in this round:
CUSA: 0-5 as dogs, Big West: 0-4, Missouri Valley: 0-4 favs > 1 pt, Mtn West: 0-3 as dogs, ACC: 5-17 as favs < 9 pts.

And as my good doctor friends like to say, if this is not enough to get your blood flowing then it’s time to visit a cardiologist.

I’ll return next week with a look at the NCAA Sweet 16 and Elite 8 round action.

Enjoy the games!

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday - Session 1
By David Schwab

West Region (Providence, RI)
No. 13 UNC Wilmington Seahawks vs. No. 4 Duke Blue Devils (CBS, 12:15 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Duke -10 ½, 156 ½

Betting Matchup

The Seahawks punched their ticket to the Big Dance with a successful run through the CAA Tournament. They have won five of their last six games straight-up, but their record falls to just 2-3-1 against the spread during this same run. Junior guard Chris Flemmings has led an offensive attack that is ranked 39th in the nation in scoring (79.2 points) with an average of 16.1 points per game.

Duke made an earlier than expected exit from the ACC Tournament with an 84-79 loss to Notre Dame as a two-point favorite. The Blue Devils have now failed to cover in their last five games while going 2-3 SU. The total has stayed UNDER in 10 of their last 13 games. Duke is the 17th-highest scoring team in the country with 81.5 PPG led by sophomore guard Grayson Allen (21.6 points) and freshman guard Brandon Ingram (16.8 points).

Betting Trends

-- The Seahawks are 2-0-2 ATS in four previous appearances in the NCAA Tournament and the total has gone OVER in seven of their last eight neutral-site games.

-- The Blue Devils are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six games in this tournament and the total has gone OVER in their last four games at a neutral site.

Midwest Region (Raleigh, NC)
No. 9 Butler Bulldogs vs. No. 8 Texas Tech Red Raiders (truTV, 12:40 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Butler -4, 147 ½

Betting Matchup

The Bulldogs posted a 12-9-1 record ATS as favorites this season and their 74-60 loss to Providence in the Big East Tournament as 3 ½-point favorites was just the second time they failed to cover in their last 10 games. The total went OVER in seven of those contests. Butler comes into this tournament averaging 80.6 PPG and shooting 46.6 percent from the field behind four different players scoring in double figures.

Texas Tech finished seventh in a very competitive Big 12 conference this season with a SU record of 9-9 and it was 19-12 overall. The Red Raiders dropped three of their last four games SU including a bad 67-62 loss to TCU as 7 ½-point favorites in the conference tournament. Their offense has sputtered during this recent slide with an average of just 67 points over the four games.

Betting Trends

--The Bulldogs are 4-1 ATS in their last five games against a Big 12 opponent and the total has gone OVER in seven of their last 11 nonconference games.

--The Red Raiders have failed to cover in 13 of their last 16 games played at a neutral site and the total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five NCAA Tournament games.

--These two last met in 2007 with Butler winning 81-71 as a five-point road favorite. The total went OVER the 123.5-point closing line.

South Region (Des Moines, IA)
No. 9 Connecticut Huskies vs. No. 8 Colorado Buffalos (TNT, 1:30 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Connecticut -3, 132 ½

Betting Matchup

The Huskies are once again hitting their stride at the right time of the year. A recent run to the AAC Tournament title extended their current winning streak to four games (SU and ATS) and the total has gone OVER in five of their last seven contests. Four of Connecticut’s five starters scored in double figures in a 72-58 romp over Memphis in the AAC title game and it held the Tigers to shooting just 37.5 percent from the floor.

Colorado bowed-out of the Pac-12 Tournament with an 82-78 loss to Arizona, but it was able to cover as a 7 ½-point underdog. The Buffaloes have now covered ATS in their last five games and they went 8-5 ATS this season when closing as underdogs. Senior forward Josh Scott is the team’s leading scorer with 16.1 PPG while shooting 53.2 percent from the field. He is also pulling down an average of 8.7 rebounds a game.

Betting Trends

--The Huskies have covered ATS in 15 of their last 18 games in this tournament and the total has gone OVER in four of their last six neutral-site games.

--The Buffaloes are 1-4 ATS in their last five NCAA Tournament games and the total has gone OVER in five of their last seven games outside their conference.

Midwest Region (Denver, CO)
No. 13 Iona Gaels vs. No. 4 Iowa State Cyclones (TBS, 2:00 p.m. ET)

Opening Odds: Iowa State -8, 166

Betting Matchup

Iona is getting quite a bit of play as an upset special in this matchup after stringing together eight-straight wins. This run includes a huge 79-76 victory over Monmouth in the MEAC Tournament Finals in a game that closed as a PICK. The Gaels have been kind to bettors with a 7-1 record ATS during this run and four of five starters scored at least 15 points in that title game.

The Cyclones slid to 3-4 SU in their last seven games with a tough 79-76 loss to Oklahoma as four-point underdogs in their only Big 12 Tournament game. They also covered as 11-point road underdogs in a season-ending 85-78 loss to Kansas. Iowa State has been one of the more prolific scoring teams in the nation this season with 81.8 PPG, but its defense is well down the list in points allowed (75.0).

Betting Trends

--The Gaels have gone 4-0 ATS in their last four games against a team with a SU winning record and the total has stayed UNDER in their last four games at a neutral site.

--The Cyclones are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a SU loss and the total has stayed UNDER in nine of their last 11 neutral-site games.

--These two met once before in 2005 with Iona cruising to an 89-72 victory as a 13 ½-point road underdog. The total went OVER a total line of 142.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday - Session 2
By Kevin Rogers

West Region – Providence – Dunkin Donuts Center
#12 Yale vs. #5 Baylor (-5 ½, 137) – 2:45 PM EST – CBS

One of four Big 12 teams that was bounced early in last season’s tournament tries to redeem itself as Baylor (22-11 SU, 12-14-1 ATS) has lost three of four down the stretch. Rewinding to last March, the Bears were tripped up as a third-seed against upstart Georgia State in the first round, 57-56 as 9 ½-point favorites. Baylor covered six of its final eight games, including both contests in the Big 12 tournaments in a win against Texas and a four-point loss to Kansas. After getting blown out in Lawrence in the Big 12 opener at Kansas back in January, Scott Drew’s team won seven of its last 10 contests played away from Waco, including a 3-0-1 ATS record in the favorite role.

Yale (22-6 SU, 11-6-2 ATS) is making its first NCAA tournament appearance since 1962, while winning only its third Ivy League title in the last 43 years. The Bulldogs are playing less than two hours away from campus in their tournament opener, coming off a fantastic 13-1 record in Ivy play with the only loss coming to Princeton in mid-February. Yale put together a 1-3-1 ATS mark as an underdog this season, which included a cover as 13-point ‘dogs in a 71-69 setback at SMU in November.

The Bulldogs will try to match the tournament success of rival Harvard, who won their opening game in two of the last three seasons, while falling by two points to North Carolina last season. Three of four contests involving 5 and 12 seeds last March were decided by seven points or less, while three 12 seeds picked up outright victories in the opening round during the 2014 tournament.

Midwest Region – Raleigh – PNC Arena
#16 Hampton vs. #1 Virginia (-23 ½, 133) – 3:10 PM EST – TruTV

These two Old Dominion squads haven’t met since 2013 as the tournament committee paired these Virginia schools together in the opening round. Virginia (26-7 SU, 17-14 ATS) received a top seed in spite of not winning the ACC regular season or tournament championship, as the Cavaliers won 13 of its final 16 games of the season. UVA covered just three of its last nine contests as a double-digit favorite since late December, while failing to cash in each of its past two opportunities as double-digit chalk in the tournament the past two seasons against Coastal Carolina (-19 ½ in 2014) and Belmont (-17 in 2015).

Hampton (21-10 SU, 3-2 ATS) captured the Mid-Eastern Athletic title after cruising past South Carolina State in the conference championship, 81-69 as three-point favorites. The Pirates are led by the backcourt duo of seniors Reggie Johnson (18.3 ppg) and Quinton Chievous (17.0 ppg), while qualifying for the tournament for the second straight season. Hampton beat Manhattan in the First Four round last season before bowing out to top-seeded Kentucky, 79-56, but the Pirates cashed as 34-point ‘dogs.

The Pirates were out-manned in both matchups with tournament teams this season, losing to Colorado by 42 points and SMU (ineligible for postseason, but would have gone to tourney) by 33 points. Virginia is a top seed for the second time in three seasons, reaching the Sweet 16 in 2014, while falling in the round of 32 to Michigan State last season. The Cavaliers owned one of the stingiest defenses in the country, while posting an 11-2 mark to the ‘under’ in its last 13 games of the season.

South Region – Des Moines – Wells Fargo Arena
#16 Austin Peay vs. #1 Kansas (-26, 152) – 4:00 PM EST – TNT

The biggest favorite in the opening round shouldn’t shock anyone, as top overall seed Kansas (30-4 SU, 21-11 ATS) is laying nearly four touchdowns against Ohio Valley champion Austin Peay. The Jayhawks grabbed both the regular season and tournament championship in the Big 12 after knocking off West Virginia, 81-71 to pick up its 14th straight victory. Bill Self’s club put together a solid 10-5 ATS record when laying at least 10 points this season, while easily covering in two opportunities back in November as 29-point favorites in routs of Northern Colorado and Chaminade.

The Governors (18-17 SU, 13-15-1 ATS) haven’t reached the Big Dance since 2008, when they lost to another Big 12 school, Texas by 20 points. Austin Peay finished fourth in the Ohio Valley West with a 7-9 conference record, while needing four wins in four days to capture the automatic berth and sneak above the .500 mark. In all four victories, the Governors covered as an underdog, while compiling a solid 6-1 ATS record in its past seven opportunities when receiving points. Peay has scored plenty of points by putting together a 13-1-1 mark to the ‘over’ the last 15 games, but the Governors allowed a season-high 102 points at Indiana in mid-November.

Kansas will look for its first Sweet 16 appearance since 2013, when the Jayhawks lost to Michigan in overtime, 87-85. KU has won nine consecutive tournament openers since 2007, but won only one of those games by more than 25 points, while posting a 2-6 ATS record in its past eight tournament contests as a double-digit favorite since 2009.

Midwest Region – Denver – Pepsi Center
#12 Arkansas-Little Rock vs. #5 Purdue (-9, 128 ½) – 4:30 PM EST – TBS

Purdue (26-8 SU, 18-11 ATS) hasn’t made the Sweet 16 since 2010, as the Boilermakers travel to the high altitude of Denver for their tournament opener. Matt Painter’s squad finished one win shy of capturing the Big 10 tournament championship after losing to Michigan State on Sunday, 66-62 as five-point underdogs. The Boilermakers never lost consecutive games this season, while the only bad defeat on their schedule came at Illinois as nine-point favorites in January. Purdue didn’t face many non-conference tournament teams, winning at Pittsburgh by 13 points in the Big 10/ACC Challenge, while falling to Butler in December by six.

The champions of the Sun Belt seek their 30th win of the season as Arkansas-Little Rock (29-4 SU, 19-10 ATS) is appearing in its first NCAA tournament since 2011. In that season, the Trojans lost in the First Four to UNC-Asheville in overtime, as their previous “real” tournament contest came in 1990, losing to eventual champion UNLV, 102-72. UALR pulled off some impressive victories in non-conference action by beating San Diego State and Tulsa as double-digit road underdogs, while closing the season by winning 14 of its final 16 games.

The Trojans are looking to become the second straight Sun Belt champion to advance to the round of 32 after Georgia State upset Baylor last March. Purdue posted a 15-9 ATS record in the favorite role this season, while covering four straight in the favorite role. The Boilermakers haven’t won an NCAA tournament game since 2012, knocking off St. Mary’s as a short underdog in the opening round.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday - Session 4
By Brian Edwards

South Region – Providence – Dunkin Donuts Center
#11 Wichita State vs. #6 Arizona (-1 ½, 136 ½) – 9:20 PM EST – TNT

-- The Westgate SuperBook opened Arizona (25-8 straight up, 16-17 against the spread) as a one-point favorite on Wednesday morning. The line moved to pick 'em briefly before settling at 1.5 in favor of the Wildcats by early Wednesday afternoon. The total opened at 136.5 and had yet to move. The Shockers are +105 on the money line (risk $100 to win $105).

-- Sean Miller's team finished third in the Pac-12 regular-season standings with a 12-6 record in conference play.

-- Arizona has struggled badly as a single-digit favorite this year, limping to a 4-9 spread record in 13 such spots.

-- Arizona is mired in a 2-7 ATS slump in its last nine games. The Wildcats saw their three-game winning streak snapped in a 95-89 overtime loss to Oregon in the Pac-12 Tournament semifinals this past Friday night in Las Vegas. UA miraculously forced the extra session by burying a 3-pointer to cut the Ducks' deficit to one with 0.8 seconds remaining. Then Mark Tollefsen stole the inbounds pass and was inexplicably fouled with 0.4 left and had a chance to win the game by going to the free-throw line for two shots. Tollefsen missed the first attempt, however, but knocked down the second to force OT. UA's Gabe York scored a team-best 21 points in the losing effort, one that saw it rally from a 15-point halftime deficit. Allonzo Trier added 16 points before fouling out, while Kaleb Tarczewski finished with 11 points, 12 rebounds and two blocked shots.

-- Arizona has played 13 games against teams in the NCAA field, going 6-7 SU and 3-10 ATS in those contests.

-- Arizona's is led by Ryan Anderson, a senior who transferred to UA from Boston College. Anderson is averaging 15.5 points and 10.1 rebounds per game while drilling 54.7 percent of his shots from the field. York is scoring at a 15.2 PPG clip while making 42.5 percent of his launches from 3-point land. Trier is averaging 15.0 PPG.

-- Miller has the sixth-best winning percentage in the NCAA Tournament among active head coaches in this year's field. His teams at Xavier and UA have gone 17-8 (68.0%), yet he's still looking to get to his first Final Four.

-- Wichita State (25-8 SU, 19-12 ATS) advanced past Vanderbilt to face sixth-seeded Arizona by winning a 70-50 decision Tuesday night at the First Four in Dayton. The Shockers, who are in the NCAA Tournament for the fifth consecutive year under Gregg Marshall, easily took the cash as 3.5-point favorites by going on an 18-2 run against the Commodores after leading by only two at the under-eight television timeout. Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet, both of whom are seniors and were key cogs in the school's 2013 run to the Final Four, scored 14 points apiece. Baker had nine rebounds, while VanVleet dished out seven assists compared to just one turnover.

-- Wichita State is 17-7 ATS in its last 24 games. Even better, Marshall's troops have gone 14-5 ATS in their last 19 outings.

-- WSU has played nine games against teams in the field, going 3-6 both SU and ATS. The Shockers' best win was a 67-50 triumph over Utah as 3.5-point home 'chalk' back on Dec. 12. They lost an 80-76 heartbreaker at Seton Hall in overtime.

-- VanVleet averages 12.1 points, 5.7 assists, 3.1 rebounds and 1.6 steals per game. He's knocking down 40.8 percent from downtown and 80.9 percent at the charity stripe. Baker averages 14.2 points, 4.9 rebounds, 3.2 assists and 1.5 steals per game. However, Baker has shot at a career-low percentage from 3-point range (35.3%).

-- The 'over' is 22-11 overall for Arizona, cashing in three straight games and seven of its last nine.

-- The 'under' is 17-13-1 overall for the Shockers, cashing in three straight and going 9-2-1 in their last 12 outings.

-- Marshall owns a 9-11 record (45.0%) in the NCAA Tournament, but let's remember that he took seven Winthrop teams to the Tournament in nine years. Those squads went 1-7, beating Notre Dame in an opening-round game in his final year at the school. That obviously leaves him with an outstanding 8-4 record (66.7%) while at Wichita State with one Final Four appearance.

East Region – Raleigh – PNC Arena
#9 Providence (-2, 149 ½) vs. #8 USC – 9:50 PM EST – TBS

-- The winner of this Pac-12-Big East showdown will get top-seeded North Carolina on Saturday in what will essentially be a road game in terms of crowd noise.

-- The Westgate opened No. 9 seed Providence as a two-point favorite. Jay Kornegay and Co. initially adjusted the Friars to 2.5 before dropping to 1.5. The number again bounced around from 1.5 to 2.5 on Monday, but it had settled at two by early Wednesday afternoon. The Westgate opened the total at 149.5 and it briefly move to 150 before coming back to the opening number. The Trojans are +115 on the money line (risk $100 to win $115).

-- Providence (23-10 straight up, 18-14 against the spread) has covered the number in five consecutive games, thought its four-game winning streak was snapped in last Friday's Big East Tournament semifinals. The Friars dropped a 76-68 decision to Villanova, but they nonetheless took the cash as 8.5-point underdogs. One night after dropping 38 points on Butler, Ben Bentil fouled out with 9:40 remaining against the Wildcats. He was held to only three points and committed five turnovers in just 26 minutes of playing time. Nevertheless, PU pulled to within three of 'Nova with 6:59 left thanks to a 15-3 run. Rodney Bullock scored a team-high 18 points and also pulled down seven rebounds. Kyron Cartwright scored 14 points, but star senior PG went 1-of-8 from the field and scored just nine points. Dunn had six assists but also committed three turnovers, but I believe that's a tribute to how well PU is playing by taking Villanova to the wire without its two horses playing effectively.

-- Providence is 4-6 ATS in 10 games as a single-digit 'chalk.'

-- Ed Cooley's team has played 12 games against teams in the NCAA field, posting a 5-7 SU record and a 6-6 ATS mark.

-- Dunn is averaging 16.0 points, 6.4 assists, 5.5 rebounds and 2.5 steals per game. Bentil is one of the nation's most improved players and, like Dunn, he's a future player at the next level. The muscular power forward is averaging 21.2 points and 7.8 rebounds per games.

-- USC (21-12 SU, 18-14 ATS) really slumped down the stretch, going 3-7 both SU and ATS in its last 10 games. All seven defeats came by margins of seven points or more and four of the losses came by double-digit margins.

-- USC has lost outright while going 1-5 ATS in its last six games as an underdog. For the season, the Trojans are 4-6 ATS with three outright victories in 10 games as underdogs.

-- Andy Enfield's squad owns a 5-8 record both SU and ATS in 13 games against teams in the NCAA Tournament field.

-- USC went 5-10 SU and 6-9 AGS in 15 games either on the road or on a neutral court.

-- USC's balanced scoring attack is led by sophomore PG Jordan McLaughlin, who averages 13.4 points, 4.7 assists, 3.7 rebounds and 1.5 steals per game. McLaughlin scored 42 points in a pair of games in the Pac-12 Tournament. He shoots at a 42.3 percent clip from 3-point range. Junior center Nikola Jovanovic averages 12.1 points and 7.0 rebounds per game while making 52.3 percent of his shots from the field.

-- USC trounced UCLA for a third time this year by blasting the Bruins 95-71 as a two-point favorite at the Pac-12 Tournament. Bennie Boatwright was the catalyst with 19 points, nine rebounds and a pair of blocked shots. But in the quarterfinals last Thursday, the Trojans lost an 80-72 decision to Utah as 6.5-point underdogs. McLaughlin had a game-high 24 points in the losing effort, while Julian Jacobs finished with 16 points, eight rebounds, two steals and six assists compared to one turnover.

-- The 'over' is on a 14-6-1 run for the Trojans, who have seen the 'over' go 18-14-1 overall.

-- The 'over' hit at a 19-13 overall clip for the Friars, going 6-3 in their last nine games.

South Region – Des Moines – Wells Fargo Arena
#13 Stony Brook vs. #4 Kentucky (-14, 143) – 9:40 PM EST – CBS

-- The winner will take on the survivor of Indiana vs. Chattanooga.

-- The Westgate opened Kentucky (26-8 SU, 18-16 ATS) as a 13.5-point favorite with a total of 144. The number went as high as 14.5 but was resting at 14 as of Wednesday afternoon. As for the total, it was down to 143. The Seawolves were +850 on the money line (risk $100 to win $850).

-- UK won the SEC Tournament with wins over Alabama (85-59), Georgia (93-80) and Texas A&M (82-77). The Wildcats needed overtime to sneak past the Aggies as four-point favorites. Tyler Ulis played all 45 minutes, producing 30 points, three steals and five assists compared to merely one turnover. Jamal Murray had 17 points, while Alex Poythress, Derek Willis and Isaiah Briscoe scored 10 points apiece. Briscoe finished with six assists, five rebounds and two steals on 5-of-8 shooting from the field.

-- John Calipari's squad has won 10 of its last 12 games with eight of those victories coming by double-digit margins. UK's only defeats during this span came at Texas A&M and at Vanderbilt. Since the loss at Vandy, UK has won five in a row both SU and ATS. The parlay combination of UK and the 'over' has also hit in five straight.

-- I believe UK has the best backcourt in the country with sophomore PG Tyler Ulis and freshman sensation Jamal Murray, who is one of the country's best pure shooters. Ulis averages 17.2 points, 7.2 assists, 3.2 rebounds and 1.5 steals per game. He has a remarkable 236/62 assists-to-turnovers ratio this year, 29/5 in the last four games. Murray (20.1 PPG) averages 5.1 RPG and makes 42.1 percent of his launches from long distance.

-- UK has compiled a 6-1 spread record in its last seven games as a double-digit favorite. The 'Cats are 9-9 ATS in 18 such spots for the entire season.

-- Since 1987, UK has only lost once in the opening round -- vs. Marquette in 2008.

-- Calipari owns the second-best winning percentage in the NCAA Tournament among active coaches. He is 47-15 for his career (75.8%) with six trips to the Final Four.

-- Stony Brook (26-6 SU, 0-5-1 ATS) won the America East Conference Tournament with wins over UMBC (86-76), Hartford (80-64) and Vermont (80-74). The Seawolves trailed the Catamounts 36-27 at intermission, but senior forward Jameel Warney sparked the second-half comeback in a spectacular performance. Warney dominated with 43 points, 10 rebounds and four blocked shots on 18-of-22 shooting from the field. Carson Puriefoy played all 40 minutes, finishing with 23 points, five 3-pointers, four assists, three rebounds and two steals.

-- Stony Brook played only two teams in the field, losing 79-72 in overtime at Vanderbilt and falling 86-61 at Notre Dame. The Seawolves' best win came at home over Princeton (91-77).

-- Stony Brook ranks 19th in the nation in scoring defense (63.4 PPG).

-- Warney averages team-highs in scoring (19.2 PPG), rebounding (10.7 RPG), blocked shots (3.0 BPG) and field-goal percentage (63.6%). In the three AEC Tourney games, Warney averageed 30.3 points and 15.3 boards per contest. Puriefoy (15.1 PPG) has buried a team-best 81 treys.

-- The 'over' is 4-2 overall for the Seawolves.

-- The 'over' is 19-14-1 overall for the 'Cats.

Midwest Region – Denver – Pepsi Center
#11 Gonzaga vs. #6 Seton Hall (PK, 145 ½) – 9:55 PM EST – TruTV

-- This is a 6/11 Midwest Region showdown in Denver, CO., where altitude will play a role. The winner will face the Utah-Fresno St. survivor on Saturday in the Mile High City.

-- The Westgate opened Gonzaga as a 2.5-point favorite Sunday night. The line moved to two within seven minutes, then down to 1.5 by later that evening. Then on Monday morning, the number moved to one for a few hours before going back up to 1.5. By early Tuesday afternoon Vegas time, the game was a pick 'em, but the Bulldogs were favored by one again Tuesday night. As of Wednesday afternoon, Gonzaga was still favored by one point. The total opened at 143.5 at the Westgate, but the tally was up to 145.5 by Wednesday.

-- Seton Hall (25-8 SU, 23-9 ATS) is the nation's best ATS team and has won four in a row both SU and ATS. Going back further, Kevin Willard's club has won eight of its last nine games while going 7-2 versus the number. If the line holds and the Pirates close as underdogs, we should note that they own an incredible 12-2 spread record with 10 outright victories as 'dogs.

-- Seton Hall had a magical weekend at Madison Square Garden in New York City, winning the Big East Tournament for the first time since 1993 when P.J. Carlesimo roamed the sidelines for the school. Willard's team raced out to an 11-point halftime lead and held off Villanova for a 69-67 win as a six-point underdog, hooking up money-line backers with a +210 return (risk $100 to win $210). Isaiah Whitehead was named the tourney's Most Outstanding Player after dropping 26 points on the Wildcats. The sophomore PG has come a long way since last year when he played selfishly and prompted major issues in terms of team chemistry. Trailing by two, Whitehead penetrated to the rim for a layup and a foul with 18 ticks left. His free throw put the Pirates up 68-67 and a defensive stop and subsequent free throw sealed the deal.

-- Whitehead averages team-highs in scoring (18.4 PPG), assists (5.0 APG) and blocked shots (1.5 BPG). Three other sophomores score in double figures, including Khadeen Carrington (14.3 PPG), Desi Rodriguez (12.5 PPG, 5.2 RPG) and Angel Delgado (10.0 PPG, 9.4 RPG).

-- Seton Hall is in the Tournament for the first time since 2006. Willard has never been dancing either in nine years as a head coach. He was at Iona for three seasons before taking the job in New Jersey. Willard's only career postseason appearance came in his second year at Seton Hall (2011-2012) when it went to the NIT and won one game.

-- Seton Hall has played 11 games against teams in the field, compiling a 6-5 SU record and a 9-2 ATS mark. The Pirates won six of nine games against teams in the RPI Top 50, with their only defeats coming to Villanova and Xavier, who No. 4 and No. 7, respectively. They have two wins over both Providence and Xavier and also knocked off Wichita State. In addition, they beat Ole Miss and Georgia in non-conference play.

-- Gonzaga (26-7 SU, 15-15 ATS) probably would've missed the NCAA Tournament for the first time in Mark Few's tenure had it not won the WCC Tournament for the league's automatic berth. However, the Bulldogs took care of business at The Orleans in Las Vegas by beating BYU and Saint Mary's in back-to-back nights.

-- Gonzaga has won five in a row both SU and ATS, including the 85-75 win over the Gaels as a 2.5-point favorite on March 8 in Sin City. Eric McClellan scored a team-best 20 points thanks to 9-of-9 shooting at the free-throw line. Kyle Wiltjer scored 17 points, while Josh Perkins finished with 16 points and five assists. Domantas Sabonis had 15 points and eight rebounds on 6-of-8 shooting from the field.

-- Gonzaga always plays a brutal non-conference schedule, but it simply worked out that its foes in non-con play didn't produce this year. Tennessee, UCLA, Washington and Washington State had down years, while SMU wasn't eligible for the Tournament. Therefore, the Bulldogs played only three games against squad in the field, going 1-2 SU and 0-2-1 ATS. They beat UConn 73-70 on a neutral court as three-point 'chalk,' while losing 68-63 at home to Arizona and 62-61 vs. Texas A&M on a neutral floor.

-- Wiltjer averages 20.7 points and 6.5 rebounds per game. The senior who is in his second year with the 'Zags after transferring from Kentucky, shoots 49.0 percent from the field, 42.4 percent from downtown and 86.7 percent at the free-throw line. Sabonis (17.4 PPG, 11.6 RPG) averages a double-double and converts 61.7 percent of his attempts from the field.

-- The 'under' is 18-14 overall for the Pirates, but they have seen the 'over' hit at a 5-1 clip in their last six outings.

-- The 'over' is 16-15 overall for the Bulldogs after cashing in each of their last three games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Vegas Moves - March Madness
By Micah Roberts

The madness of the college basketball NCAA Tournament has already tipped off with the play-in games, but it goes full throttle on Thursday with 32 teams in action, and the place to be for the ultimate dude getaway is any Las Vegas sports book.

A little more zest is added to the annual festivals at each of the casinos this year just because it's St. Patrick's Day as well. Yes, the cold beers will be flowing all day long -- the more justifiable excuses to party, the better.

You've done all your homework, you know who you're going to play and you have your bankroll ready to fire. You formulate a betting strategy and then execute with action all over the board. You've also made some future wagers on who is going to win the tournament, and you've got great excuses for making wagers on them all.

Now you add in some non-stop betting action with one game after another from 9:00 a.m. PT to 9:00 p.m., and you've got a real party.

William Hill sports books are going to have in-progress wagering on the games, so its worth getting an app for the weekend just to make the bets -- you don't have to be a resident to sign up, you just have to be within state lines.

You could also be sitting at Caesars Palace watching the games with your friends while betting from your phone. Forget that waiting in line stuff!

And then when Thursday's over, you repeat the cycle Friday for 16 more games. The one difference from Friday is that a full day of drinking from Thursday has slowed the initial groove. "Thursday was crazy, Friday my head hurts."

Instead of beer on Friday morning, there's a lot more coffee cups visible.

It really is exhausting, but then Saturday and Sunday's action is amplified by the importance of the games. Your second wind comes back. It's the final 32 teams playing for a shot to make the Sweet 16. The natural drama of college basketball plays out and always sells itself, it's just more fun watching it with a couple hundred new friends.

The team the average bettor in town has been keying on so far in all types of wagers has involved the Midwest No. 2 seed Michigan State who faces Middle Tennessee State on Friday at St. Louis.

At William Hill books, they've taken 19 percent of all their cash taken to win the NCAA Tournament on the Spartans, who are co-favorites with Kansas and North Carolina at 7/2 odds (Bet $100 to win $350).

MGM Resorts sports book huib manager Jeff Stoneback has seen a similar story occur at his chain of 10 books across the strip.

"The most frequently bet team over the past week has been Michigan State," said Stoneback. "They're about a 2-to-1 ratio on tickets wagered on over the next most bet team."

Last weekend the MGM Grand hosted the Pac-12 Tournament and bettors were impressed with the champion, Oregon, and bet them pretty good to win the NCAA Tournament.

"Oregon is actually a small loser for us, but it's the only team among the top-16 seeds we lose on," Stoneback said.

The Ducks gained the No. 1 seed in the West on the strength of winning its last eight games and play their first two games close to home in Spokane, WA.

Las Vegas oddsmaker Kenny White doesn't have the same enthusiasm for the Ducks and has them rated as his No. 18 team, with teams such as Arizona and Iowa being a half-point better in his personal ratings.

Bettors have also been taking some long shot wagers hoping the impossible will happen.

"Our biggest risk so far is Holy Cross, and we've only had four tickets written on it but the risk piles up quickly when offering odds at 5,000/1," Stoneback said with a chuckle.

"Hawaii is one of those teams that has been bet often at high odds that makes them a big loser for us. We took a lot of bets on them during the conference tournament last weekend at 1,000/1 and 750/1." They're 200/1 now.

As for how the books expect to fare this weekend, let's just say the books always do extremely well because of the randomness of so many games and the spread being fairly accurate as they test the will of bettors who want to lay big numbers with the popular teams.

"How many points will you take before you'll buy a Stony Brook ticket getting +14 against the Kentucky brand?"

It's a churn for the entire four days and one of the most consistent winners the books have for big events throughout the years.

The larger risk for the books occur the following weekend when each game has more importance and is isolated which creates larger handle. When a couple of those favorites pop, the parlay payouts start to make it hard for the books to absorb it.

In the end though, everyone will have a great time. Some will win, some will lose, but the memory lasts forever and the word of mouth from college hoop fans has sold Vegas' March Madness better than any marketing campaign ever could.

Line moves this week at Westgate SuperBook:

Thursday
-- Yale-Baylor total from 134 to 136.5
-- Butler from -3 to -4 vs. Texas Tech
-- Kansas from -25 to -26.5 vs. Austin Peay
-- U-Conn-Colorado total from 134.5 to 132
-- Indiana from -9.5 to -12 vs. Tenn-Chat
-- UALR-Purdue total from 130.5 to 129
-- Fresno-Utah total from 142.5 to 139

Friday
-- Villanova from -16 to -17.5 vs. NC-Ashville
-- Iowa -5.5 to -7.5 vs. Temple
-- West Virginia from -8.5 to -7.5 vs. Stephen Austin, total 147 down to 145.5
-- Oklahoma from -13.5 to -14.5 vs. Bakersfield
-- VCU -3 to -4.5 vs. Oregon State
-- Texas A&M -12..5 to -13 vs. Green Bay
-- Michigan State -17 to -18 vs. MTSU, total from 141.5 to 143
-- Maryland from -7 to -9 vs. San Diego State
-- Hawaii-Cal total from 141.5 to 143.5

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Consensus Picks

Last March, every team was trying to knock off undefeated Kentucky as Wisconsin accomplished that feat in the Final Four. This March, top-seeded Kansas enters the NCAA tournament with four losses, while the other three number one seeds have all lost at least six games (North Carolina, Oregon, and Virginia). The tournament is wide-open this season with second seeds Michigan State, Oklahoma, and Villanova all worthy candidates to win the national title.

Is Kansas the team to beat? According to some of our experts, the answer to that question is yes. However, the Jayhawks are not the overwhelming favorite to hoist the championship plaque on April 4. We polled our experts to provide their Final Four squads, sleeper team, and champion as the results vary across the board.

Handicapper Joe Nelson believes the top seed from Lawrence will sit in the winner’s circle in early April, “In a season where upsets on the top of the polls were the norm much of the season, Kansas clearly established itself as the best team in the country with a two-game edge in a Big XII conference that rated as the nation’s best. Kansas has a great mix of proven veteran leaders and talented youngsters and Kansas hasn’t lost since late January despite facing Kentucky, West Virginia (twice), Oklahoma, Baylor, Texas (twice), and Iowa State in that stretch for one of the nation’s most difficult schedules. Unlike many of the recent overall top seeds, Kansas won’t be playing all that close to home going to Des Moines and then potentially Louisville, but the region lines up pretty favorably for the Jayhawks barring a major upset.”

In the East region, college hoops expert James Manos has faith that Big 10 regular season champion Indiana will head to the Lone Star State for the Final Four. “It took the Hoosiers a while to come around, but they finished the season strong and enter the tournament playing perhaps their best basketball of the season. The committee did the Hoosiers no favors giving them perhaps the toughest opening round game of any top five seed, vs Chattanooga, and then a daunting second matchup with Kentucky, but the Hoosiers have the talent to beat both those squads and a confidence boosting win over the Wildcats could be just the type of upset that propels this team to the Final Four,” Manos comments.

Oklahoma lost twice in the regular season to Kansas, but Bruce Marshall is high on the Sooners cutting down the nets in Houston, “Expect the Big 12 to dominate the Dance unlike any league since the Big East in 1985. The most transcendent team in the country this season has been Oklahoma, with the most transcendent player in Buddy Hield. In a season in which the earth has been flat in college hoops, a special player such as Hield can tip the balance in favor of the Sooners.”

Marc Lawrence is convinced that Michigan State will overcome its snub for a top seed and win its first championship since 2000, “That the Spartans lead the nation in 3-Point Field Goal Percentage (43.4), Rebound Margin (11.7) and Assists Per Game (20.6) is no coincidence. In addition, they lead all Power 5 conferences in Scoring Margin (16.8) and all Big Dance teams in Defensive Field Goal Percentage (37.7). They are all famous Tom Izzo traits and it’s what leads his troops to the championship game once again this season.”

Here are the Final Four picks from our handicappers:

Final Four and Championship Predictions

Handicapper Sleeper East South Midwest West Champion

Antony Dinero California North Carolina Miami Purdue Oregon Oregon

Bill Marzano Seton Hall North Carolina Kansas Michigan State Oregon Michigan State

Bruce Marshall Gonzaga West Virginia Kansas Michigan State Oklahoma Oklahoma

Chip Chirimbes Miami Xavier Kansas Michigan State Oklahoma Michigan State

Doc's Sports Duke North Carolina Kansas Michigan State Oklahoma North Carolina

James Manos Indiana Indiana Kansas Virginia Oklahoma Kansas

Jim Feist Seton Hall Xavier Wichita State Michigan State Texas A&M Michigan State

Jimmy Boyd West Virginia Kentucky Kansas Michigan State Oregon Kansas

Joe Nelson Providence Indiana Kansas Virginia Oregon Kansas

Joe Williams Wichita State West Virginia Kansas Michigan State Oklahoma Kansas

John Fisher Maryland Xavier Villanova Michigan State Oklahoma Michigan State

Kevin Rogers Northern Iowa Kentucky Kansas Michigan State Oregon Kansas

Kyle Hunter Purdue North Carolina Kansas Michigan State Oklahoma Michigan State

Marc Lawrence California Kentucky California Michigan State Oklahoma Michigan State

The SportsBoss Wisconsin West Virginia Miami Virginia Texas Virginia

Zack Cimini Iowa North Carolina Kansas Utah Texas Kansas

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA Tournament Betting 3-Point Play: Three Interesting March 17 Opening Lines
by Alan Matthews

Don't know about you, but I can't think of a better way to celebrate St. Patrick's Day than by spending all day at some Irish pub with March Madness on the tube! One prop I always like for the NCAA Tournament is betting on which conference the winner will come from. While the two team favorites are from the Big 12 (Kansas) and Big Ten (Michigan State), I tend to agree that the ACC should be favored, and it is at +200. You have legit chances for North Carolina, Virginia and Maryland to cut down the nets. Not sure Duke is good enough to repeat.


No. 9 UConn vs. No. 8 Colorado (+3, 132.5)

South Region game from Des Moines at 1:30 p.m. ET on TNT with the winner facing No. 1 Kansas. UConn (24-10) probably doesn't make the NCAA Tournament if not for the miracle shot of the year, if not many years: a Jalen Adams three-quarter court heave at the buzzer to tie the Huskies' AAC Tournament opener against Cincinnati at the end of a third overtime. I expected UConn to be totally on empty after that epic four-OT win, but it then easily beat top-seeded Temple and Memphis on the way to the AAC title. I'm still not sure what to make of this team because I don't think the AAC was all that great. UConn's best nonconference win was at Texas but it lost to Syracuse, Gonzaga and Maryland. It also was 0-2 vs. Temple in the regular season. But the Huskies can defend, ranking among the national leaders in defensive efficiency and points allowed. UConn also has the chance to sort of repeat as national champion. The Huskies won it behind Shabazz Napier in 2014 and then weren't allowed to defend in 2015 due to low APR. A few players remain from that squad.

Colorado (22-11) won only three of its final seven games, but one of those victories, over No. 9 Arizona, was what got this team into the Big Dance. The Buffs were then knocked out of the Pac-12 Tournament by the Wildcats in a four-point loss. CU has really no great nonconference wins to hang its hat on. It did play AAC team SMU and lost by four in a Christmas holiday tournament. UConn split with the Mustangs. The Buffs have one of the better big men in the nation in senior Josh Scott, who averages 16.1 points (53.2 percent shooting), 8.7 rebounds and 1.7 blocks.

Key trends: The Huskies are 4-0 against the spread in their past four nonconference games. They are 15-3 ATS in their past 18 NCAA Tournament games. CU is 5-0 ATS in its past five games. The "over/under" has gone under in three of UConn's past five out of conference. The under has hit in six of CU's past eight after a win.

I'm leaning: UConn and under.

No. 13 Iona vs. No. 4 Iowa State (-7.5, 167)

Midwest Region game from Denver at 2 p.m. ET on TBS, with the winner facing either No. 5 Purdue or No. 12 Arkansas-Little Rock. And if you like fast-paced basketball, this is the best game of the first round as both these clubs play fast. This total is easily the highest of any first-round game. Iona (22-10) was second in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference regular season but knocked off champion Monmouth, everyone's favorite mid-major this year, in the conference title game. Iona has the MAAC's best player and a future NBA guy in senior A.J. English, who averages 22.4 points, 6.2 assists and 5.0 rebounds. He's one of those guys who can single-handedly carry a mid-major to an upset or two. Iona didn't play any Big 12 teams this season but did lose by 20 at Pac-12 school Oregon State. The Gaels averages 79.6 points per game.

Iowa State (21-11) finished a moderately disappointing fifth in the Big 12 standings and then going for a threepeat in the Big 12 Tournament lost its opener in a close game to a very good Oklahoma team. I know the Cyclones burned a lot of people's brackets last year as many had them going to the Final Four, but ISU was upset as a No. 3 seed by UAB in the first round in what proved to be Coach Fred Hoiberg's final game in Ames -- he's now with the Chicago Bulls. Led by All-American Georges Niang and Big 12 assists leader Monte Morris, ISU ranks third nationally in offensive efficiency at 120.5 points per 100 possessions. The Cyclones average 81.8 ppg.

Key trends: Iona is 7-1 ATS in its past eight. ISU is 4-1 ATS in its past five after a loss. The under is 9-2 in Iowa State's past 11 neutral-site games.

I'm leaning: Two teams who live on the perimeter for the most part. Will playing in the thin air of Denver keep the score down? Go Iowa State and under as that total is really high.

No. 14 Buffalo vs. No. 3 Miami (-13.5, 148.5)

South Region game from Providence at 6:50 p.m. ET on TNT with the winner taking on either No. 6 Arizona or No. 11 Wichita State. Buffalo (20-14) finished third in the MAC East Division but won two blowouts in the MAC Tournament and then upset top-seeded Akron 64-61 in Saturday's final. It's the second straight year in the Big Dance for the Bulls. They were a No. 12 last year and played well in a 68-62 first-round loss to No. 5 West Virginia. That game went down to the final minute. BU was so impressive it got then-coach Bobby Hurley, the former Duke star, a better job at Arizona State. Hurley was replaced by Nate Oats, who was one of Hurley's assistants. This won't be Buffalo's first game of the year against a ranked team from a Power 5 conference. It lost 82-59 at No. 6 Duke on Dec. 5 and 84-63 at No. 4 Iowa State two nights later. The Bulls also lost to NCAA tourney teams Saint Joseph's and VCU in blowouts.

Miami (25-7) would have shared the ACC regular-season title with North Carolina but lost its finale at Virginia Tech. The Canes then beat the Hokies in the ACC Tournament quarterfinals before falling to No. 4 Virginia by five. My worry about this team is that it's dominant at home but very shaky on the road. UM did have quality neutral-site wins over Utah and Butler early in the season. Miami has been ranked in the AP's Top 15 for 14 weeks this season, eclipsing the previous school record of 10 in the 1959-60 season. The season also marks the 10-year anniversary of Coach Jim Larranaga leading little George Mason to the 2006 Final Four. Miami and Buffalo haven't played since 2006.

Key trends: Buffalo is 5-0 ATS in its past five neutral-site games. UM is 12-3 ATS in its past 15 non-conference games. The over is 8-3 in Miami's past 11 out of conference.

I'm leaning: Miami and under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAA tournament

Thursday's games

Afternoon games

Since 2003, Duke is 5-8 vs spread in first round games; they are lower than a 3-seed for first time since '07, when they lost in first round to VCU as 6-seed. Duke's subs play 7th-least minutes in country; longer TV timeouts will help, but UNCW is pressing team with lot of depth. Seahawks are 16-2 in last 18 games; they haven't played in 10 days- Duke played Friday. Wilmington is a young team, but five pf seven guys in Duke rotation are frosh, sophs. ACC teams are 5-3 vs CAA teams this year, 3-5 vs spread. #4 seeds in West are 3-12 vs spread in 1st round the last 16 years.

Since 2003, underdogs are 31-21 vs spread in 8-9 first round games. Butler is 4-0 in last four first round games, dating back to their days in Horizon League. Bulldogs went 11-1 in pre-conference schedule (#279), went 7-3 last 10 games but lost to Providence in first round of Big East tourney- they're only team to beat Seton Hall since Jan 23 (beat Pirates twice). Texas Tech is in NCAAs for first time since '07; Tubby Smith is 7-2 in last nine first round games, but he was 1-2 at Minnesota, 6-0 at Kentucky. Big East teams are just 9-9 SU in first round last three years; Big X teams are 8-10.

UConn is 17-2 in last 19 first round games; they won in OT vs St Joe's in first round in '14, when they won national title. Huskies came off deck Friday, won in 4OTs, won AAC tourney. UConn are #5 eFG% defense in country, #1 foul shooting team, but they also finished 6th in 11-team AAC; Colorado is in for 4th time in five years- they went 1-2 in first round those years. Buffs are 1-6 in last seven games away from Boulder. Since 2003, underdogs are 31-21 vs spread in 8-9 first round games. AAC teams are 2-3 vs Pac-12 teams this year; Colorado lost 70-66 to AAC kingpin SMU in December in Las Vegas.

Selection committee did Yale a favor, putting game in Providence, 100 miles from New Haven campus; Yale is in tourney for first time since 1962- they're going to have lot of fans there. Baylor is 5-7 in last 12 games- their last four losses were to Top 10 teams. Bears are 3-2 in last five first round games; they got upset as a 3-seed by Georgia State LY. Baylor is 10-2 out of conference, losing to Oregon/Texas A&M. Ivy League teams are 3-3 SU in first round last six years, after losing six in row before that; Big X teams are 3-0 vs Ivy teams this year, winning by 10-6-12 points.

Hampton is 0-4 vs top 100 teams, losing by 19-33-42-30 points. Virginia beat Pirates 69-40 at home three years ago; game was 40-19 at half. Cavaliers lost in ACC tourney final Saturday; they're 13-3 in last 16 games, won 11 of 12 out of conference, beating MEAC's Morgan State by 38 in opener. Last three years, underdogs are 8-4 vs spread in 1-16 games, as 1-seeds tend to look ahead to secnd round games. Since '09, MEAC teams are 2-5 vs spread in non-play-in games; Hampton won play-in game LY, then lost to Kentucky by 23, so they shouldn't be in awe. Playing team from same state isn't a bad thing.

Austin Peay finished 7-9 in OVC but won last six games, are here for first time since 2008; Governors lost by 39-26 in only two top 100 games, vs Vandy and Indiana. OVC teams are 8-3 vs spread in first round game last 11 years-- this isn't best OVC team, though. Kansas is 2-5 vs spread in 1st round last seven years- they will have ton of pressure on them Saturday, having lost in second round last two years, to Stanford/Wichita- this is 7th year in a row Jayhawks are 1 or 2-seed and they've KO'd on first weekend three times. Austin Peay is turning ball over 20.4% of time, playing against schedule #230.

Last seven years, underdogs are 18-10 vs spread in 5-12 games. Little Rock is 29-4, a deep team with wins at San Diego St, Tulsa; they're #13 in experience- bench is #44 in minutes played- this is their first NCAA in eight years, when they lost play-in game. Trojans play 7th-slowest tempo in country; they're not a big team and Purdue is a top 25 rebounding team. Since '07, Sun Belt teams are 6-3 vs spread in this round. Not sure if it is relevant; since 1994, #12 seed in Midwest is 17-5 vs spread in 1st round. Boilers don't force lot of turnovers; they've got #6 eFG% defense, have won five of last six games overall.

Buffalo lost 68-62 to West Virginia in this round LY; game was tied with 2:42 left; Bulls have new coach now, won six of last eight games- they're 1-7 vs top 100 teams, with only win in MAC title game over Akron- they play #25 tempo Miami is #23 in experience but is in NCAAs for first time in three years; 'canes lost two of last three games- they're 7-1 vs teams outside top 100- this is first game vs team outside top 100 since January 23, vs Wake Forest. Underdogs are 8-4 vs spread in 3-14 games last three years. ACC teams are 4-0 vs MAC teams this year, winning by 9-9-23-33 points (2-2 vs spread).


Night games
Southern Conference teams haven't won NCAA game since Steph Curry was at Davidson, but since '03, they're 9-3-1 vs spread in this round. Chattanooga is 42-10 in SoCon last three years but is in NCAAs for first time since '09 with rookie coach. Mocs beat Georgia/Dayton/Illinois by total of 8 points back in fall- they're #17 in experience. Indiana makes 41.5% on arc, has senior PG and is #2 eFG% offense in country, but they did lose first conference tourney tilt, often a red flag. Chattanooga forces turnovers 20.3% of time, #53 in country. Last seven years, underdogs are 18-10 against the spread in 5-12 games.

North Carolina won its last 13 first round games, last two by hoop each; they are 1-4 vs spread in last five first round games. This is first time they're a 1-seed since '12, when they made Elite 8- their last Final Four was '09. UNC is 21-4 in last 25 games, with all four losses to top 40 teams. Florida Gulf Coast is 0-3 vs top 100 teams, losing by 20-10-4 points; Eagles crushed FDU Tuesday, easy day to bounce back from. Atlantic Sun teams pulled big upsets in last two non-play-in games- since '03, they're 6-6-1 vs spread in this round. FGCU defends arc well, but UNC doesn't shoot lot of 3's. Last three years, underdogs are 8-4 vs spread in 1-16 games.

Fresno State has an experienced backcourt but won Mountain West tourney in very down year for league; Bulldogs are in NCAAs for first time since 2001, they lost by 5 at Oregon, 13 at Arizona last fall. Utah won nine of last 10 tilts; they beat San Diego State by 5 in its only MW game. Utes made Sweet 16 LY; they're 8-1 vs teams ranked outside top 100. Fresno is #19 in experience; they start three senior guards, but Poeltl is going to kill their inside guys. Pac-12 teams are 13-3 vs Mountain West this year, 8-8 vs spread (8-5 as favorites). Underdogs are 8-4 against the spread in 3-14 games last three years.

Arizona is #6 seed in South; last six years, #6-seed in South is 1-5 with three one-point losses in this round. Wildcats are 4-0 in first round games under Miller (1-3 vs spread); they split their last six games, with five of them decided by 6 or less points. Wichita State is 20-3 in its last 23 games; they closed on 20-2 run vs Vandy Tuesday in Dayton. Shockers won last three first round games, allowing average of 48.7 ppg. MVC teams split four games with Pac-12 teams this year; Wichita beat Utah by 17, Arizona waxed Bradley by 30. VanVleet and Baker played 34-33 minutes Tueasday; no other Shocker played more than 29:00. Since 2009, Pac-12 teams are 23-6 in this round.

Kentucky is 5-0 in first round under Calipari (2-3 vs spread); they made Final Four last four times they were in tournament. Wildcats opened season with a 78-65 win over Albany, one of Stony Brook's rivals in America East. Stony Brook is in NCAAs for first time; they had 18-game win streak during season. Seawolves lost at Vandy in OT, by 25 at Notre Dame- they're #24 experience team in country. America East teams covered four of last five non-play-in games. Last 10 years, favorites are 23-17 vs spread in 4-13 first round games. Kentucky has to guard against looking ahead to Indiana in second round.

Since 2009, Pac-12 teams are 23-6 in this round. USC lost seven of its last ten games overall, Providence won four of its last five. USC is 3-7 vs top 50 teams this season- this is their first NCAA since 2011, but Enfield was in Sweet 16 three years ago with Florida Gulf Coast, beating Georgetown in 1st round. Providence has two really good players, Dunn/Bentil; they beat Arizona of Pac-12 in November and made NCAAs last two years, but lost in first round both times. Big East teams are just 9-9 in this round last three years. Since 2003, underdogs are 31-21 vs spread in 8-9 first round games. Weird game; chances are no seniors will play for either team.

Gonzaga is in only because they won WCC tourney- they haven't been on court in 11 days, but also won last seven first round games, winning as 7, 8 (twice) and 11-seeds, so they've been in this boat before. Seton Hall is in NCAAs for first time in 10 years; they won eight of last nine games, winning Big East tourney for first time since 1993. Pirates start five sophs, don't play many subs. Hall played Saturday night. Big East teams are just 9-9 in this round last three years. Gonzaga scored 88.3 in winning the WCC tourney. Last four years, faves are 11-4-1 vs spread in 6-11 games. Zags start two seniors, have slight edge in experience, big edge in height inside.

MAAC teams are 0-7 in first round (0-7 vs spread) since Siena beat Ohio State in an 8-9 game in '09; Iona lost by 25-16 points its last two times in this round. Gaels are 12-1 in last 13 games, but 2-7 vs top 100 teams, with two wins vs Monmouth. Iowa State is #4 in experience; their bench plays 5th-least minutes in country. Cyclones got upset in first round as 3-seed LY, after making Sweet 16 the year before. ISU beat Chattanooga by 20 in November, a team with similar profile to Iona. Last 10 years, favorites are 23-17 vs spread in 4-13 first round games. Two thin teams who like to run playing in Denver; total was posted at 166.


Friday's games

Afternoon games

Dayton (+6.5) upset Syracuse 55-53 in second round 3-11 game couple years ago in Buffalo; Orange were 0-10 on arc that day. Syracuse won five of last six first-round games, but lost five of its last six games overall, losing last three, all by 5 or less points- they made 20-45 on arc in neutral court wins vs UConn, Texas A&M in November- they're shooting 36.1% on arc, are thin (#350 subs' minutes). Last eight years, underdogs are 10-7-1 vs spread in 7-10 first round games. ACC teams are 14-2 SU in first round last three years; A-14 teams are 3-6, with Dayton two of three wins. Dayton split its last eight games, after a 21-3 start.

Lot of pressure on Villanova this weekend; last three times they were a #1 or 2 seed, they didn't get past first weekend; other two times, they were 9-seed and lost in first round. Wildcats won five of last six games overall, losing by hoop to Seton Hall in Big East tourney final. NC-Asheville tied for 3rd in Big South, but is 15-seed, first time since Winthrop in '08 that Big South team is higher than a 16. Big South teams are 2-4 vs spread since '08 n first round, after covering five in row before that. NC-Asheville won at Georgetown, lost by 28 at Texas A&M in its two top 100 games. Since 2008, #2-seeds who are favored by 16+ points are 6-12 vs spread in this round.

VCU lost first round games in OT last two years; this is Wade's first NCAA- he went 27-7 in SoCon at Chattanooga, but never got this far. Oregon State is in NCAAs for first time since 1990, when Gary Payton was the Beavers' star; now his son is OSU's star. Tinkle was 0-3 in NCAAs at Montana. OSU is 4-8 vs top 50 teams. Beavers split last eight games overall; freshman wing Tinkle (foot) is out. VCU is 7-5 in last 12 games after a 17-5 start; Rams Since 2009, Pac-12 teams are 23-6 in this round. Last eight years, underdogs are 10-7-1 vs spread in 7-10 first round games. VCU is 1-6 vs top 60 teams this season.

Hawai'i is 11-2 in last 13 games; they're 10-2 on mainland after playing once on mainland before Jan 14. Rainbows lost to Oklahoma by 3, Texas Tech 8 in its only two top 70 games this year- best team they beat was Northern Iowa by 16 on Dec 22. Over last decade, Big West teams are 0-10 in non-play-in games (3-7 vs spread). Cal Bears split last four games, losing to Utah in OT in Pac-12 tourney; they've got one senior in talented, 8-man rotation. Pac-12 teams are 15-1 vs Big West this year (10-6 vs spread). Last 10 years, favorites are 23-17 vs spread in 4-13 first round games. Hawai'i is #48 in country in experience.

Middle Tennessee is in NCAAs for first time since losing play-in game in '11; Blue Raiders won Alaskan Shootout, are 0-2 vs top 100 teams, losing by 6-4 to VCU, South Dakota State. MTSU is 4th-worst (60.7%) foul shooting team in country. Michigan State got to Sweet 16 last four years, covering first round game all four times; Spartans started season with 82-55 win over FAU of C-USA- they're making 38.9% of 3's, #19 in country. Big 14 teams are 5-1 vs C-USA this year, 3-2 vs spread as faves. Since 2008, #2-seeds who are favored by 16+ points are 6-12 against the spread in this round.

Iowa lost six of its last eight games after 19-4 start; seven of those eight tilts were decided by 8 or less points. Hawkeyes lost to Dayton of A-14 on neutral floor in November. Iowa is experienced, starting junior and four seniors- they made 38.2% on arc (#32), just 33.1% in last six games. Temple is in NCAAs for first time in three years; Owls are 2-4 in last six first round games. Last eight years, underdogs are 10-7-1 vs spread in 7-10 first round games; since 2010, Big 14 teams are 28-10 in this round- they're 3-4 vs A-14 teams, 2-2 vs spread when favored. AAC teams are 4-2 in this round the last two tournaments.

Cal-Bakersfield is in D-I March Madness for first time; they won three D-II national titles. Coach Barnes was last in tournament with Ole Miss in 2002, losing to UCLA by 22 in first round. Roadrunners lost by 16-35 vs top 100 teams (Arizona State and St Mary's); they've got #10 eFG% defense in country. Oklahoma lost in first round two of last three years (0-3 vs spreas); last time they covered in first round was 2009. Sooners are just 6-5 in last 11 games after 19-2 start; Big X is such a hard league- they are 8-0 vs teams outside top 90. WAC teams are 3-10 vs spread in this round, 0-5 the last five years. Since '07, #2-seeds who are favored by 16 or less points in the first round are 12-4 against the spread.

Maryland is 3-5 in last eight games after starting season 22-3; TV pundits are openly questioning team chemistry. Maryland took 93 3's last four games, more than when they were playing well. South Dakota State won six in row, 12 of last 14 games; they won 84-70 at Big 14's Minnesota Dec 8. Since '03, Terps are 6-0 in first round games; they beat Valpo by 3 LY, in first NCAA with Turgeon as coach. Jackrabbits will start three seniors, always a help. Since '03, Summit League teams are 1-12 in NCAAs, 2-9-2 vs spread; North Dakota State got the only win, two years ago in 5-12 game. Big 14 teams are only 3-3 vs Summit League this year; 2-3 against spread as a favorite.


Night games
Pitt coach Dixon is rumored to be leaving Pitt for either TCU or UNLV; Panthers are 4-7 in last 11 games overall, 7-1 in last 8 first round games. Wisconsin coach Gard got interim label lifted, is now the guy; Badgers are 8-1 in last nine first round games- they lost last two games after 11-1 run, slight red flag. Big 14 teams are 10-8 vs ACC teams this year; Pitt lost 70-56 at home to Purdue Dec 1, its only loss in 13 non-conference games; Wisconsin won in OT at Syracuse in its ACC game. Badgers don't defend 3-ball well, but Pitt is 16-64 on arc in last four games. The last eight years, underdogs are 10-7-1 vs spread in 7-10 first round games.

SF Austin coach Underwood worked for Bob Huggins at Kansas State; Lumberjacks are 88-13 in Underwood era, 59-1 in Southland play. SFA upset VCU in '14 first round, lost to Utah by 7 LY- they force turnovers 25.9% of time. West Virginia 25.5%- they lead the country in that stat. Mountaineers won six of last seven games, can struggle on offense, but they've played schedule #5, SFA #317. 'jacks are #46 experience team, WV #170. Southland teams are 2-10 in first round games, 5-6-1 vs spread, 1-3 in last four non-play-in games. SFA opened season with 97-55 loss at Baylor; they got beat by 7 at Arizona State on other top 100 game.

Horizon teams are 0-4 in NCAA games since Butler bolted for greener pa$ture$ (1-3 vs spread). Green Bay coach Darner won D-II national title LY at Florida Southern; they've won eight of their last nine games, winning four days in row to win Horizon title. Texas A&M won eight of last nine games, losing in OT to Kentucky at SEC tourney; Aggies forced turnovers 20.7% of time in SEC games. Green Bay plays #6 tempo, has protected ball well (#27)- their offensive posessions are shortest in the country. SEC teams won both their games with Horizon teams this year, but didn't cover either one. Underdogs are 8-4 against the spread in 3-14 games last three years.

Oregon won its last eight games, 14 of last 16 to grab its #1 seed; Ducks won first round games last three years by 13-19-6 points. Last three years, underdogs are 8-4 vs spread in 1-16 games- the #1 seed in West is 10-4 vs spread last 14 years, 0-3 the last three. Holy Cross won its last five games after being 10-19 to that point; Crusaders run Princeton offense- they've made 37.8% on arc last five games, are just 32.8% for season. HC lost by 18-33 points in its two top 10 games this year (URI/Kansas). Patriot League clubs are 0-3 in this round last three years, losing by 12-40-41 points.

Xavier is in NCAAs for 10th time in 11 years; they're 6-2 in last 8 first round games- this is 1st time they've been higher than 6-seed under Mack. Xavier is 12-0 out of conference. Weber State is in NCAAs for just second time in last nine years; they lost 68-59 to Arizona in '14. Big Sky teams are 0-9 in NCAA last nine years (2-7 vs spread). Wildcats are 1-2 vs top 100 teams, splitting pair with South Dakota State. Since '07, #2-seeds who are favored by 16 or less points in the first round are 12-4 against the spread. Last two years, double digit first round favorites are 9-16 vs spread.

Notre Dame is in NCAAs for 6th time in seven years; they're 2-3 last five first round games, 3-4 in last seven games overall. Irish don't have much depth- PG Jackson played 33:00+ in 11 of last 12 games, 40:00+ in six of 12. Michigan used three starters 35:00+ in win over Tulsa Wednesday, a brickfest where teams were combined 9-40 on arc. Wolverines are 5-11 vs top 40 teams, beating Indiana/Notre Dame in last week, with loss to Purdue in between. Last four years, favorites are 11-4-1 vs spread in 6-11 games. ACC teams are 8-10 vs Big 14 teams this season, 5-5-1 vs spread when favored.

Northern Iowa won 12 of last 13 games, beat North Carolina very early in season, but somehow went 5-10 in skid during middle of year- they beat Iowa State of Big X 81-79 on neutral floor. Panthers won game in tourney LY after missing four years in row before that; UNI is #35 team in experience; they protect ball well, shoot 3's well. Texas is 4-5 in last nine games; they played hardest schedule in country. Longhorns might get big man Ridley back here; they play #301 pace, un-Smart-like, after he became famous with pressing style at VCU. Last four years, faves are 11-4-1 vs spread in 6-11 games. Big X.MVC slit four games this season with underdog covering all four games.

Cincinnati split last six games, losing last game in 4OTs to UConn is there a hangover from that? St Joe's scored 85 ppg in winning A-14 title; they're in NCAAs for just second time in eight years- they lost in OT to UConn in first round in 2014. Hawks protect the ball well, aren't deep, don't foul lot (#6 in not fouling). Cincinnati is 3-2 in first round games last five years; last four were decided by 6 or less points. Winner of this game has legit shot to knock off #1 Oregon Sunday. AAC/A-14 split eight games this season; Cincy beat GW/VCU, St Joe's beat Temple in OT. Since '03, dogs are 31-21 against the spread in 8-9 first round games.


Other tournaments
We'll do what we can with these minor tournaments; impossible to determine how interested players on these teams will be........


NIT
Valparaiso is 17-3 in its last 20 games; winning last three home games by 4-11-16 games. Crusaders used three starters 31:00+ in Tuesday's 84-73 win over Texas Southern. Valpo has #8 eFG% defense in US. Florida St used only two guys more than 28:00 in 84-74 win over Davidson in its first NIT game; Seminoles are 11-2 outside the ACC, losing to Hofstra by 5, Iowa by 3 in OT.


CBI
none


CIT
Grand Canyon won its last four home games since 59-57 loss to Seattle Jan 30; Antelopes held on Monday for 78-74 win over South Carolina State in its first CIT game- they used three starters 30:00+, made 16-34 on line in game they led by 12 at half. Jackson State made 14-31 on arc in 81-77 OT win at Sam Houston Monday- Tigers blew 21-point lead in game where they used three guys 40:00+.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Big Dance'

The 2016 'Big Dance' gets underway this afternoon. History is clear, no number-one seed has ever lost to a number-sixteen seed (124-0). It will happen eventually, maybe even this year, but it's unlikely.

Since 2003, top-seeds sport a perfect 52-0 SU record but with pointspreads close to twenty or higher the norm in the round of 64, things were not as rosy against the betting line as #1's posted a 26-25-1 ATS mark over the 13 year span including 18-22-1 ATS laying 20 or more points. Last year, Villanova (-22), Duke (-22.5) covered the hefty number but Kentucky (-34), Wisconsin (-20) failed at the betting window.

This year's group all expected to tip-off near or above 20 points safe to say Kansas (-26), Virginia (-24.0), North Carolina (22.0) and Oregon (n/a) could be in dangerous betting territory.

Recent betting trend for this years Top-Seeds:
Jayhawks 11-3 ATS last 14 games overall, 1-4 ATS in their last 5 NCAA Tournament games, 0-3 ATS as #1 Seed.
Tar Heels 1-5 ATS in their last 6 NCAA Tournament games, but a sparkling 4-1 ATS as a #1 seed this round.
Cavaliers 2-4 ATS last six NCAA Tourney Games, 0-1 as #1 Seed in round of 64.
Ducks 5-1 ATS last six games overall, 6-1 ATS last seven in NCAA Tourney action.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Previews, Streaks, Tips, Notes

Iowa State vs Iona March 17, 3:00 EST

Iowa State Cyclones (21-11, 15-13-1 ATS) are being asked to lay 8.5 points. Might be a little generous against Iona Gaels (22-10, 16-15 ATS) who are no slouches on offense dropping 79.6 points/game which is just 2.2 points/game less than Cyclones. Gaels ridding an impressive eight game win streak with a profitable 7-1 record against the betting line should keep this one within the betting range.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

At the Gate - Thursday
By Mike Dempsey

Entire came out yesterday for Saturday’s $900,000 Rebel (G2), with a field of 14 looking to stamp their ticket to Louisville for the Kentucky Derby (G1).

The Rebel is a Road to the Kentucky Derby points race with 50-20-10-5 points up for grabs toward entry into the Run for the Roses for the top four finishers.

The Rebel has been dominated by Hall of Fame trainer Bob Baffert, who has won five of the last six editions of the race including last year with American Pharoah, who went on to win the Triple Crown.

Baffert is back looking for another win in the race and will saddle Cupid, who broke his maiden at Santa Anita on Feb 7 in his last start, his third career outing.

The colt was a $900,000 Keeneland purchase, by Tapit out of a Beau Genius mare that has dropped some nice runners including Heart Ashley ($395,896) and Ashley’s Kitten ($349,268).

Can a maiden win the Rebel? Curlin won the 2007 running of the race off a maiden score, so yes it can.

Suddenbreakingnews won the local prep, taking the Southwest (G3) going from last to first with a seven wide rally. The colt is currently listed at 10-1 in early Kentucky Derby wagering, the co-fourth choice in the wagering.

I will have selections and analysis for the race in Saturday’s column.

Here is today’s opener from Gulfstream Park to get the day off to a good start:

GP Race 1 Clm $12,500 (12:35 ET)
#3 Abatare 4-1
#4 A Place to Shine 1-1
#1 Dra. Dolly 7-2
#7 Senora de Fatima 10-1

Analysis: Abatare tracked the early pace, took over the lead and got caught late, settling for the runner up spot at this level going a mile over a wet track. The third place finisher Valid Wildfire came back to beat $6,250 non-winners of two in her next outing here on March 3. The Mulhall trainee appears headed in the right direction form wise and broke her maiden over the main track here two back.

A Place to Shine broke her maiden by 13 1/2 lengths last out for a $25,000 tag in her first off the claim by the Petro barn. The runner up Spitfire Wind came back to break her maiden by seven lengths in her next start on March 12 at Philly. She earned the top last out speed fig and Petro does great with newcomers to the barn.

Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 3-1 or better.
EX: 3,4 / 1,3,4,7
TRI: 3,4 / 1,3,4,7 / 1,3,4,6,7

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Gulfstream Park:

GP Race 10 Alw $50,000s (5:05 ET)
#3 Carta Regia 3-1
#1 Break Away 8-1
#2 Giant's Jewel 7-2
#8 Welcome Speech 4-1

Analysis: Carta Regia had a rough trip last out in a fourth place finish against $30,000 non-winners of three or four-year-olds last out. The filly lacked room and had to steady heading down the backstretch, lacked room around the far turn, was caught behind a wall of horses at the top of the stretch and got clear too late, beaten a half-length for the top spot. The filly was claimed out of the race by the Vitali barn that is 15% winners first off the claim. She has a pair of wins over the grass here and looks like a good fit with a better trip.

Break Away was third last out against $50,000 non-winners of two. The filly saved ground early and then ran out of running room at the top of the lane, shifted outward and finished evenly. She broke her maiden two back in her 12th career outing, beating $50,000 foes here going a mile. She struggled early in her career but seems to be putting it together.

Wagering
WIN: #3 to win at 5-2 or better.
EX: 1,3 / 1,2,3,8
TRI: 1,3 / 1,2,3,8 / 1,2,3,7,8

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Gulfstream Park
R1 #7 Senora de Fatima 10-1
R7: #7 On Attack 8-1
R9: #1 Bagema 12-1
R10: #1 Break Away 8-1
R11: #10 Magnetic Girl 10-1
R11: #2 With a Kiss 10-1

Good luck today!

 

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Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Flamboro Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 1 - Post: 6:00 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 57
- Purse:$6200 - N/W $5000.

CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 5 LEROYS DREAM 8/5


# 6 SOUTHERN OAKS 5/2


# 3 PARKHILL MAXIMUS 12/1


The consensus for this race is that LEROYS DREAM is the one to beat. Could very well be the most respectable in the group here, showing very good ratings of late. Avg speed is a solid 61. Has a substantial shot for this race, if he can race to his back class. Competing competitively, earned a strong TrackMaster Speed Rating in his last race (57). SOUTHERN OAKS - A change in the horse's equipment for this race. Second time hoppled likely to result in good improvement. That 59 TrackMaster Speed Rating clocked in the most recent contest puts this nice horse in the mix in this contest. PARKHILL MAXIMUS - This affair may be controlled by this gelding. One look at the avgerage speed rating will verify that. The handicapping team always pays close attention to solid standardbreds with an change in equipment. First time hoppled for this gelding.