Thursday 3/17/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Grand Salami - March

The Grand Salami in pro hockey is decided by adding up all the goals scored in every game scheduled for that particular day. You can wager on 'over' or 'under' the Grand Salami total. The total is set by adding up all listed 'over/under' odds for each game on that particular day.

Note: The Grand Salami will have no action if any game is suspended or cancelled before the regulation time of three twenty minute periods. Also, regardless of the number of goals scored during the shoot out portion of the overtime, the final scored recorded for the game will give the winning team on more goal than its opponent based on the score at the end of regulation time.

*The majority of sportsbooks do not put out a total on the Grand Salami when there is only one game on the card. For tracking purposes, we will continue to show the 'over/under' for goals and combined goals scored on days with just one game.

NHL GRAND SALAMI
Date No. of Games Total Goals Combined Goals Scored Result
3/1 8 48.5 49 OVER
3/2 3 16.5 17 OVER
3/3 12 65.5 69 OVER
3/4 3 15.5 20 OVER
3/5 11 58 62 OVER
3/6 6 30.5 34 OVER
3/7 7 36 38 OVER
3/8 8 44.5 41 UNDER
3/9 6 32.5 32 UNDER
3/10 6 32.5 29 UNDER
3/11 5 26.5 28 OVER
3/12 12 63.5 66 OVER
3/13 3 16 13 UNDER
3/14 6 30 41 OVER
3/15 8 43.5 40 UNDER
3/16 6 32.5 32 UNDER
3/17 8 - - -
3/18 6 - - -
3/19 11 - - -
3/20 7 - - -
3/21 4 - - -
3/22 10 - - -
3/23 2 - - -
3/24 11 - - -
3/25 3 - - -
3/26 14 - - -
3/27 3 - - -
3/28 8 - - -
3/29 9 - - -
3/30 3 - - -
3/31 10 - - -

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL Hockey Odds and Picks: Scouting the Week Ahead
by Alan Matthews

One could make the argument that home-ice advantage is more important in the NHL than in the NFL, NBA or Major League Baseball (they don't have ice, but you get the drift). That's because home NHL teams actually have a schematic advantage in that they get the last line change off a stoppage of play. Thus the coach can manipulate matchups if need be.

That brings me to the perplexing San Jose Sharks, who entered Monday third in the Pacific Division but just three points behind first-place Los Angeles. Are the Sharks good enough to reach the Stanley Cup Finals for the first time? Maybe. Goaltender Martin Jones has been a brilliant offseason trade acquisition. He was formerly Jonathan Quick's backup in Los Angeles, and the Kings thought so highly of Jones that they purposefully traded him to the Boston Bruins this summer to keep him out of the Western Conference. Except the Bruins then turned around and traded Jones days later to the Sharks. Jones is 34-18-4 with a 2.28 goals-against average and .918 save percentage. He has gone seven games in a row without giving up more than two goals.

San Jose certainly is a good enough road team to win the Cup. It is 25-9-3 away from home, the most road wins in the NHL. But what's up with that 13-15-3 record at home? The Sharks haven't had a losing home record since 1997-98. Over the past 25 years, the Stanley Cup winner with the fewest home victories (not including shortened seasons) was the 1997 Red Wings with 20. The swept the Flyers in the Cup Finals. The Stanley Cup finalist over that period with the fewest regular-season home wins was the 2002 Carolina Hurricanes, who were 15-13-11-2 at home. Ties and OT losses were separate categories then.

The Sharks start a stretch of seven of their next eight at home against Boston on Tuesday, an NBC Sports Network national TV game. San Jose is +700 to win the Western Conference.

Big Loss For Penguins

Pittsburgh's chances at winning the Cup took a big hit Saturday when star winger Evgeni Malkin was ruled out 6-8 weeks with an upper-body injury (they never tell you what the true injury is in the NHL). Malkin left Friday's win in Columbus following a collision with Blue Jackets defenseman Dalton Prout in the second period. Malkin has 27 goals and 31 assists this season. Since making his first postseason appearance in 2007, Malkin has averaged 1.10 points per playoff game. The only player with a higher number since then is teammate Sidney Crosby at 1.18.

Malkin missed 10 consecutive games last month, during which time the Penguins went 5-4-1. Their all-time record when he has been injured is 71-45-9 following Sunday's win at the New York Rangers.

This Week's Games To Watch

Chicago at Winnipeg, Friday: First meeting between these teams since the Blackhawks acquired forward Andrew Ladd from the Jets around the Feb. 29 trade deadline. Winnipeg got 21-year-old forward Marko Dano, who is considered a pretty good prospect, a first-round draft pick this June and another conditional pick. Solid return for Winnipeg after Ladd turned down a six-year extension earlier in the season and will hit unrestricted free agency. Ladd has two goals and two assists in six games with the Hawks. The Blackhawks lead the season series 2-1 but both wins were in Chicago. This starts a four-game homestand for the Jets.

NY Islanders at Dallas, Saturday: If you like offensive hockey, this matchup is for you as both are among the Top 5 scoring teams in the NHL. That showed in the first meeting, a 6-5 Islanders home win on Jan. 3. Kyle Okposo and Cal Clutterbuck each had two goals for the Isles, who trailed 2-1 in the first period before scoring the next four goals and holding on. Valeri Nichushkin had two goals for Dallas. There aren't many NHL games where I'd recommend the over total, but this would be one of them. The Islanders have lost No. 1 goaltender Jaroslav Halak for 6-8 weeks with a lower-body injury, meaning he likely misses the start of the playoffs. Thomas Greiss has played pretty well in net this year for the Isles but has less than one full game of playoff experience. Halak has 30 games of postseason play under his belt.

Boston at Los Angeles, Saturday: Could see this matchup replayed come June in the Stanley Cup Finals. This will be a chance for some major payback for Boston as it was totally embarrassed on home ice by the Kings on Feb. 9, 9-2. Nine different players scored for the Kings, including Milan Lucic, who was traded from Boston last summer (in the Jones deal). That was not a popular deal among Bruins fans. It remains an NHL high in goals scored by any team and Los Angeles also had a season-best 57 shots on net. That was the most shots against Boston since Detroit had 57 on March 18, 1965. Tuukka Rask gave up five goals on 32 shots before being pulled. It was the most goals the Bruins allowed at home in nine years.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NHL

Hot teams
-- Pittsburgh won its last three games, allowing six goals.
-- Florida, Toronto both won three of their last four games.
-- Nashville won seven of its last ten games.
-- San Jose won seven of its last nine games. Arizona won its last two games, 4-0/4-1.
-- Los Angeles won five of last seven games. Rangers won three of their last four road games.

Cold teams
-- Devils lost last three home games, outscored 13-2. Minnesota lost three of last four games.
-- Carolina lost six of its last nine games; their last five games all went OT/SO.
-- Red Wings lost five of their last seven games. Columbus lost three of its last four.
-- Islanders lost three of their last four games.
-- Tampa Bay lost four of its last five games. Dallas Stars lost three of their last four.

Series records
-- Devils won three of last four games with Minnesota.
-- Carolina won three of its last five visits to Pittsburgh.
-- Columbus won five of last seven games with Detroit.
-- Florida won six of its last seven games with Toronto.
-- Islanders won their last four games with Nashville.
-- Dallas Stars lost five of last seven games with Tampa Bay.
-- Sharks won five of their last six games with Arizona.
-- Rangers lost seven of last nine games with Los Angeles.

Totals
-- Four of last six New Jersey games went over total.
-- Three of last four Penguin games stayed under the total.
-- Under is 7-2-1 in last ten Detroit-Columbus games.
-- Over is 4-0-2 in last six Florida games.
-- Over is 5-1-1 in last seven Nashville games.
-- Eight of last nine Tampa Bay-Dallas games went over.
-- Four of last five San Jose games stayed under the total.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Ranger games.

Back-to-backs
-- Rangers are 8-5 if they played the night before.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Wizards (32-35) at 76ers (9-58)

Date: March 17, 2016 7:00 PM EDT

Consecutive blowout wins over their main competitors have the Washington Wizards right back in the thick of the playoff chase.

They'll aim for another against an opponent far out of the postseason picture in Thursday night's road test with the Philadelphia 76ers.

After losing a season-high five straight from March 4-12 to fall back in the Eastern Conference race, Washington (32-35) has responded by defeating fellow contenders Detroit and Chicago by a combined 64 points. The Wizards closed within 1 1/2 games of the eighth-place Bulls with Wednesday's pivotal 117-96 victory.

'We knew that the teams that we're chasing were right here in front of us,' forward Jared Dudley said. 'We knew it was now or never.'

An offensive resurgence has keyed the turnaround. After averaging 96.8 points and shooting 43.0 percent during its losing streak, Washington went a season-high 56.7 percent from the field in Monday's 124-81 rout of the Pistons and hit 13 of 21 3-point attempts against Chicago.

The Wizards have been thriving on the defensive end as well, holding those two to a combined 40.4 percent and forcing 39 turnovers. They limited Detroit to a 3-of-23 performance from beyond the arc.

"If we just keep playing defense this way, we give ourselves a great chance to beat anybody. Simple as that,' guard John Wall said. 'We simplified our defense the last two games, it showed up and it's been a lot better.'

Washington's upward trends could very well continue against lowly Philadelphia (9-58). The 76ers average a league-high 17.4 giveaways and have been deplorable defensively since the All-Star break, allowing 116.5 points per game and 39.8 percent 3-point shooting.

The Sixers were on the receiving end of Bojan Bogdanovic's career-high 44-point night in Tuesday's 131-114 loss at Brooklyn, their 15th defeat in 16 games. The Nets led 32-15 after one quarter and by as many as 23 during a 71-point first half.

"We dug ourselves a hole at the start," coach Brett Brown said. "We ended up winning the second half. We just got jumped at the start. We knew they were going to come out and try to fix some of the things that they felt they needed to in the games we won previously."

Philadelphia, 3-39 against the East, also hasn't offered much resistance in losing all three 2015-16 meetings with the Wizards, including a 103-94 defeat at Wells Fargo Center on Feb. 26. It's particularly struggled to contain Wall, who's averaged 26.0 points in the season series and amassed 37 in a 116-108 victory on Feb. 29.

Marcin Gortat also has given the 76ers' suspect interior defense problems. The center had 18 points and a career-high 20 rebounds in the most recent matchup and is averaging 18.4 points and 13.0 rebounds in five consecutive Washington wins over Philadelphia.

Gortat hasn't played more than 25 minutes in the Wizards' last three games, however, due to a lower back injury.

Wall had 29 points and 12 assists against Chicago and is averaging 22.2 points and 10.6 assists over an 11-game stretch.

The Sixers remain without leading scorer Jahlil Okafor (knee surgery) but have been getting production from their current starting backcourt. Isaiah Canaan is 9 of 15 from 3-point range while totaling 42 points over his last two games and Ish Smith is averaging 18.7 points over the past six.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Raptors (45-21) at Pacers (36-31)

Date: March 17, 2016 7:00 PM EDT

While the Toronto Raptors are considering taking a foot off the gas with a top-two seed all but locked up, the Indiana Pacers are still talking about their potential.

The Raptors continue their push for the Eastern Conference's No. 1 spot Thursday night when they visit the Pacers, who are trying to bury a once-real possibility of missing the postseason.

Toronto (45-21) has won four of five games and 10 of 13 since Feb. 21 to cement itself well ahead of Boston in the Atlantic Division with 16 left to play. The Raptors narrowly trail East-leading Cleveland, but prior to Tuesday's game in Milwaukee coach Dwane Casey said he would start resting players in anticipation of the playoffs.

He held true to his word, resting leading scorer DeMar DeRozan in a 107-89 win, Toronto's third game in four days. The two-time All-Star had started each of the previous 65 games but watched from the bench alongside Jonas Valanciunas, who was held out as a precaution after bruising his left hand in Monday's 109-107 loss to Chicago.

Without their combined 36.5 points per game, Kyle Lowry picked up the slack. The All-Star had 25 points and 11 assists one night after finishing with 33 points, 11 rebounds and seven assists against the Bulls.

Rookie Norman Powell chipped in a season-high 17 points, and Lowry rested in the fourth quarter with the Raptors comfortably ahead.

'It just shows how much depth we have on the bench, when your star player can have a rest game and we still have a dominating game like that,' said Powell, who played 34 minutes after averaging just 7 coming in.

Bismack Biyombo started for Valanciunas and posted 12 points, 13 rebounds and two blocks, both coming in a third quarter in which the Bucks missed 16 of 22 shots. Toronto failed to contain Chicago a night earlier as the Bulls shot 49.4 percent but held Milwaukee to 44.2, including 2 of 13 from 3-point range.

The Raptors rank toward the top of the NBA by holding opponents to 98.4 points per game, and they held Indiana (36-31) to 37.2 percent shooting in a 106-99 home win Oct. 28. However, the Pacers snapped a five-game skid in this series by shooting 47.7 percent and making 10 of 22 3s in a 106-90 victory in Indianapolis on Dec. 14.

Paul George shot just 30 percent while averaging 16.5 points between the two games, but he has hit a second wind in Indiana's recent surge - with one exception.

George rebounded from a 3-for-15, seven-point effort in Sunday's 104-75 loss at Atlanta with 25 points in Tuesday's 103-98 win over Boston - Indiana's fourth victory in five games. Even with the poor outing against the Hawks, George has averaged 24.7 points the last six games.

The Pacers hold the East's seventh seed and close the regular season with 10 of 15 games at Bankers Life Fieldhouse, where they are 20-11.

'(I see) potential, a lot of potential for this team to go forward (with momentum),' George said. 'We got a chance to move up. With 15 games left, nothing is really set in stone, we're still right there.'

Indiana plays its next four games and seven of eight at home. Another victory there clinches a winning home record for the 27th straight season.

The Raptors are 19-13 on the road but have lost three of their last five.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Hornets (38-29) at Heat (39-28)

Date: March 17, 2016 7:30 PM EDT

With less than a month remaining in the season, the Miami Heat have little margin for error atop the Southeast Division.

The red-hot Charlotte Hornets are one of the reasons why.

The Hornets look to continue their surge and pull into a tie with the Heat on Thursday night in the conclusion of their season series.

Miami (39-28) leads the Southeast by one-half game over second-place Atlanta and one on Charlotte (38-29) in third. The Heat and Hornets have 15 games left, one more than the Hawks.

While all three will likely make the playoffs, Miami is determined to win the division and remain third in the Eastern Conference.

"You know it's really 'go time,'" Dwyane Wade said. "You really understand every team is trying to play their best basketball right now. This is the time of the year where it gets harder. You have to take care of games.

"You want to get the best seed as possible. Where we're at, the third seed is the best seed. We're looking at that."

The Hornets are similarly examining the seeds as they are also one-half game back of Boston to sit in sixth place in the East.

"If you look at the last 10 years, 75 percent of the home teams win in the first round," coach Steve Clifford said. "The only seeding that's not where the home team didn't win the most was the 4-5. ... We have to concentrate. That to me is the carrot."

Charlotte has won 14 of 17 games, concluding a 6-1 homestand with Wednesday's 107-99 win over Orlando.

"The homestand was huge," said forward Marvin Williams, who had 26 points and nine rebounds. "Guys were really looking forward to it. We've got to take this show back on the road and hopefully we can play with the same intensity."

The Hornets, though, only managed to make up one game on Miami, which went 4-2 since Charlotte's homestand began and has won seven of nine overall.

The Heat, winners of a season-high four straight at home, have also outscored the Hornets by an average of 12.2 points in winning the last 14 meetings in Miami, including the playoffs. They haven't met there since the season opener on Oct. 28, with the Heat prevailing 104-94 as Williams had 10 points and 10 rebounds while Nicolas Batum shot 3 for 12 for nine points.

Williams is averaging 23.0 points over the last four games while Batum has totaled 46 and 16 assists over the last two. Williams had a season-high 27 points while Batum chipped in 21 in the last matchup with Miami, a 98-95 home loss Feb. 5.

Kemba Walker was 6-of-16 shooting for 16 points against the Magic but is still averaging 26.8 points in nine games this month. The Hornets have won 16 of the last 17 games when he scores at least 22.

"They got guys playing on a high level," Wade said. "Kemba Walker is playing just as good as anybody in the league right now. Nick Batum has been very consistent for them all year, being that point forward. They got a complete team. For us, it's always been a tough matchup."

Wade connected on 11 of 20 from the floor while finishing with 22 points in the February meeting. He's averaging 23.8 over the last five home games, scoring 19 as seven Miami players reached double digits in Monday's 124-119 win over Denver.

Hassan Whiteside had a triple-double against the Hornets last month, scoring 10 points with 10 rebounds and 10 blocks.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Nuggets (28-40) at Hawks (39-29)

Date: March 17, 2016 8:00 PM EDT

The Atlanta Hawks' recent surge has them on the verge of climbing atop the competitive Southeast Division.

All the Hawks need to do is secure their longest home win streak of the season Thursday night against the Denver Nuggets while getting some help.

Atlanta (39-29) registered its third straight win and sixth in seven games Wednesday against Detroit while moving within one-half game of Miami in the division.

The Hawks had a nine-point lead with 1:03 remaining cut to two with 19 seconds left. Jeff Teague then converted two key free throws with 17.9 remaining to go in a 118-114 victory and led the way with 22 points after tallying just six in a 104-75 rout of visiting Indiana on Sunday.

"We just found a way. In the fourth quarter defensively, we just locked (the Pistons) down," center Al Horford said. "It feels great to get the win. They were cutting it close there, and I wouldn't have been happy. I'm just happy we won."

Miami will face third-place Charlotte, which is 8-1 this month, at home Thursday. A Hornets victory over the Heat and Atlanta's fifth consecutive home win would give the Hawks a one-half game lead over both teams.

Atlanta will face a Denver team that's started 0-2 on a five-game trip after winning four straight to wrap up a seven-game homestand. The Nuggets (28-40) have given up an average of 120.7 points on 54.8 percent shooting in three consecutive losses away from home.

"We've shown we can be a good defensive team but consistency has been a huge issue with us," coach Michael Malone said. "I think that speaks to our age and youth. We're playing with a bunch of rookies. There are nights where we're going to be good and nights where we don't looks so good."

Denver let Orlando shoot 61.4 percent in the opening half and 54.3 percent overall in a 116-110 victory defeat Tuesday.

"The whole night was very disappointing," Malone said. "We allowed them to score 116 points and shoot 54 percent, which is just crazy. I'm very disappointed with our defensive effort tonight."

Atlanta shot 50.0 percent in a 119-105 victory in Denver on Jan. 25. Paul Millsap scored a team-best 22 points, which is also his average in his last five games against the Nuggets. It's also his highest average against any team since the beginning of the 2013-14 season.

Horford contributed 18 points on 8-of-12 shooting. He's averaging 19.5 points on 62.3 percent shooting in his last four games and scored 21 on 9-of-15 shooting Wednesday.

The Hawks are 32-8 all-time at home against Denver, winning six of the last seven. Millsap has a combined 47 points in the past two.

Kris Humphries, signed March 1, has averaged 19.7 points on 68.6 percent shooting in his last three games against the Nuggets but is averaging 7.7 in his first seven with Atlanta.

Denver's Gary Harris is averaging 16.6 points on 50.4 percent shooting in his last 11 games, 5.6 more than in his first 51. He had 15 points on 6-of-9 shooting in the loss in January.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Grizzlies (39-29) at Bucks (29-39)

Date: March 17, 2016 8:00 PM EDT

For the Memphis Grizzlies, at least the latest loss was more competitive.

Ravaged by injuries during a three-game losing streak, the Grizzlies remain seeking a silver lining as they limp into Thursday night's matchup with the Milwaukee Bucks.

Down to 10 healthy players - five of whom were signed either off the street or from the D-League in the past month - the Grizzlies are mired in their longest winless stretch since a four-game skid in November. They were outmanned once more in Wednesday's 114-108 home loss to Minnesota, though the result still bettered Monday's 130-81 thrashing by Houston that matched the second-worst defeat in franchise history.

The Grizzlies' patchwork lineup did improve on a 29.7 percent performance from the field against the Rockets but remained porous defensively, as the Timberwolves shot 66.7 percent during a 42-point opening quarter and 56.3 percent overall.

Memphis (39-29) still remains four games ahead of sixth-place Portland in the Western Conference as it awaits the returns of Mike Conley (Achilles), Zach Randolph (knee), Brandan Wright (knee), Vince Carter (calf) and Chris Andersen (shoulder). P.J. Hairston was added to that extensive list after straining his groin in Monday's blowout.

There still were some positives that came out of Wednesday's loss. Lance Stephenson did return after missing the Houston game with a wrist injury and totaled 24 points, 11 rebounds and seven assists, while JaMychal Green had 18 points and 10 rebounds to help Memphis record a 70-40 advantage in the paint.

"Really, really proud of our guys," coach Dave Joerger said. "We got 70 points in the paint. I thought we fought, I thought we gave ourselves a chance. We just came out too slow and spotted them too many points."

Stephenson is averaging 25.0 points and 8.7 rebounds over his last three games and Green has posted four double-doubles while starting the past six.

Memphis has averaged just 86.7 points and shot 33.9 percent in losing three straight on the road, where it plays four of its next five starting with a Bucks team that won three straight prior to Tuesday's 107-89 loss to Atlantic Division-leading Toronto.

Milwaukee (29-39) continues to receive big production from Giannis Antetokounmpo, who just missed a second consecutive triple-double with 18 points, 12 rebounds and nine assists against the Raptors. The 21-year-old is averaging 20.2 points, 9.5 rebounds and 8.7 assists over a 12-game stretch in which he's notched a club-record four triple-doubles.

Two of Antetokounmpo's teammate have been contributing of late as well. Khris Middleton is averaging 21.9 points and shooting 44.4 percent on 3s over a 10-game run and Jabari Parker is averaging 21.4 over his last nine.

The offense did struggle against Toronto, which held the Bucks to 2-of-13 from beyond the arc and outscored Milwaukee 29-17 in the third quarter to pull away.

'The ball didn't move,' coach Jason Kidd said of the third-quarter problems. 'I think we got a little frustrated. We have to do a better job shooting outside the paint."

Milwaukee missed 15 of 16 3-point tries in a 103-83 loss at Memphis on Jan. 28, the Grizzlies' ninth win in 10 meetings. The Bucks did stop a four-game home skid in the series with a 93-92 victory in Memphis' last visit on Nov. 8, 2014.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Nets (19-48) at Bulls (33-33)

Date: March 17, 2016 8:00 PM EDT

The return of Derrick Rose and the start of an advantageous stretch of schedule wasn't enough to keep the injury-plagued Chicago Bulls in a playoff spot.

They'll try to get back into position during a four-game homestand that begins Thursday night against the Brooklyn Nets.

Rose was back on the court Wednesday after missing back-to-back games because of a strained left groin but went 7 of 19 while scoring 16 points in a 117-96 drubbing by Washington. Jimmy Butler missed eight of 12 shots in a 17-point performance and has shot a combined 9 of 30 in his two games since coming back from a swollen knee.

"We just couldn't really get a stop tonight, so they got us,' said forward Doug McDermott, who scored a team-best 20 points and has a combined 49 in his past two games. "We've got to come out with urgency. We didn't do that tonight. That's on us."

The Bulls (33-33) played without Pau Gasol (knee) again as they kicked off a seven-game stretch of opponents with sub-.500 records. Taj Gibson was forced to leave after aggravating his right hamstring.

"The challenge is pretty tough right now, but that's why we're pros." Rose said.

With Gasol expected to sit out again Thursday, Chicago will next try to avoid joining that list of sub-.500 teams.

The Bulls haven't had a losing record since Feb. 6, 2014, and have avoided that twice this month with much-needed victories. A 109-107 victory in Toronto on Monday put the Bulls one percentage point ahead of Detroit for eighth place in the Eastern Conference, but both teams are now at .500, and Chicago has two games in hand.

The Pistons hold the tiebreaker because of their 2-1 lead in the season series. With Detroit idle, Chicago will try to jump back into the lead with its sixth win in eight home games.

The Bulls have won eight of the last 11 regular-season meetings against the Nets (19-48) but have dropped the past two at home, including a 105-102 defeat Dec. 21.

Brooklyn has lost its past three road games, but it snapped a four-game overall skid with a 131-114 victory against the 76ers on Tuesday.

Bojan Bogdanovic registered a career-high 44 points - 16 more than in any other game - in the Nets' highest-scoring performance in five seasons. It was also their highest-scoring non-overtime game since a 131-113 win over Boston on Feb. 8, 2000.

"We just came out aggressive and held it for the majority of the game," center Brook Lopez said. "They made a few runs, but we always answered back. For the most part we were unselfish with the ball."

Lopez has averaged 23.5 points and 9.5 rebounds in the two games against Chicago this season, his third-best scoring performance versus any Eastern Conference team.

Butler has shot 64.5 percent (20 of 31) and scored a combined 48 points in the two meetings. Rose, meanwhile, is shooting 30.0 percent and averaging 10.0 points in his past four matchups.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Trail Blazers (35-33) at Spurs (57-10)

Date: March 17, 2016 8:30 PM EDT

Although it took him a while to settle in with the San Antonio Spurs, LaMarcus Aldridge is showing signs of playing like the force he was in the past for the Portland Trail Blazers.

Now the All-Star forward will try to help the Spurs capture the NBA's second-longest home winning streak to open a season Thursday night against his former team.

After leading the Trail Blazers in scoring in each of the past five seasons, Aldridge made a somewhat surprising move by signing a four-year contract with San Antonio in July.

With a highly successful system already in place, the 10th-year pro seemed to ease into his role with the club before coming on strong in recent weeks. He averaged 15.9 points in November and December, 16.7 in January, 20.5 in February and 24 so far in March.

Kawhi Leonard had 20 points and Aldridge contributed 17 in Tuesday's 108-87 win over the Los Angeles Clippers that pushed San Antonio's home record to 33-0. The Spurs (57-10) can now move past Orlando's start in 1995-96 and also get within four of breaking Chicago's league-record 37-game run that same season on the way its historic 72-10 finish overall.

San Antonio also has 42 straight home games dating to March 2015. Golden State, the only club with a better record than the Spurs, had a record 49-game run entering Wednesday.

The Warriors visit AT&T Center for a prime-time showdown Saturday.

"We want to win at home but it's not make-or-break," Aldridge said. "I think guys are locked in for this weekend (versus Portland and the Warriors on Saturday). It's been good so far."

Aldridge, who insists the Spurs won't look ahead to Golden State, has averaged 25.7 points on 58.6 percent shooting in his last seven home games. He scored 23 in a 113-101 win Nov. 11 in his return to Portland but the Blazers held him to six in San Antonio's 93-80 home victory five days later.

Aldridge will get another shot at the team he helped go 17-8 - including a 6-5 mark on the road - against the Spurs over the previous seven seasons. The Blazers (35-33) own the highest opponent winning percentage overall and at San Antonio over that span.

"It doesn't (feel weird anymore)," Aldridge said of facing his former teammates. "It's been a whole season almost. I'm in (this) system. I'm with (this) group and I'm fine with it."

With Damian Lillard taking over the reigns, Portland has played its way into a tight race with Houston and Dallas for the Western Conference's final playoff spots. The club hopes to avoid its first six-game road skid since dropping seven straight from Jan. 16-Feb. 7, 2015.

The Blazers shot a season-low 34.1 percent from the field while allowing a season-high 59.0 mark in Monday's 128-94 loss at Oklahoma City - their fifth in seven games.

"Our last eight losses have all been to playoff teams (at the time), our last five losses have all been to playoff teams on the road," coach Terry Stotts explained.

Over the past three games, Lillard has slumped by averaging 19.1 points on 39.1 percent shooting and C.J. McCollum has scored 17 per game while shooting 38.8 percent.

San Antonio ranks near the top of the NBA with a 43.2 opponent field-goal percentage and has shot 50.6 percent from the field over its last 23 games at the AT&T Center.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Suns (18-49) at Jazz (32-35)

Date: March 17, 2016 9:00 PM EDT

Just as they were moving past an awful stretch that put a dent in their playoff hopes, the Utah Jazz have been hit with the news that Gordon Hayward needs to rest his ailing foot.

Fortunately for them, Rodney Hood seems more than willing to come to the rescue.

Hood will try to build on one of his best performances as Utah looks to inch closer to a playoff spot with its fourth consecutive victory Thursday night against the visiting Phoenix Suns.

Seventh in the Western Conference, the Jazz were closing in on their first playoff berth since 2011-12 before a 3-10 stretch from Feb. 10-March 9 dropped them three games out of a spot.

They averaged just 96.8 points on 43.9 percent shooting during that slump before scoring 111 per game with a 51.7 field-goal percentage in back-to-back victories. That momentum didn't seem likely to last without the injured Hayward, averaging a team-high 20.1 points.

Instead, Hood stepped up with 28 points, Derrick Favors scored 19 and Shelvin Mack added 17, 10 assists and seven rebounds in Monday's 94-85 home win over East-best Cleveland. The Jazz shot 49.3 percent and made 12 of 27 3s.

They're shooting 46.5 percent from beyond the arc in their last four games after shooting 28.3 in the previous seven.

'Rodney did what Rodney does,' coach Quin Snyder said. 'I'm sure he was aware of (missing Hayward's offense), but I don't think he hunted shots. I just thought he was really aggressive."

Hood certainly looked better after averaging 10.7 points on 38 percent shooting while dealing with a sore lower back in his previous seven games. Mack, acquired from Atlanta on Feb. 18, has averaged 19.3 points while hitting 10 of 16 from beyond the arc over his past three.

The Jazz (32-35), who are back within a couple games of the final playoff spot, hope Hood can keep leading the way if Hayward remains sidelined because of plantar fasciitis. Hayward's loss would be big in this contest since he's averaging 23 points in his last five versus Phoenix.

Hood finished with 25 in a 98-89 road win over the Suns (18-49) on Feb. 6. Favors scored 18 and Hood added 14 in a 110-89 victory in Salt Lake City on Dec. 21.

After allowing opponents to put up 114.2 points per game and shoot 42.9 percent from 3-point range in their previous 14 games, the Suns showed some improvement Monday by holding Minnesota to 4 of 16 from beyond the arc in a 107-104 home victory.

'Once you start shutting teams down, it leads to easy offense," guard Devin Booker said.

P.J. Tucker had a career-high 23 points and 12 rebounds, Mirza Teletovic had 21 and hit the winning 3-pointer with 1.2 seconds left as Phoenix won for the sixth time in its last 39 games. The club now has an opportunity to claim only its second set of back-to-back victories since Dec. 9.

Booker has been a bright spot, averaging 25.1 points over his last seven games. The rookie guard led the Suns with 18 in the most recent meeting with the Jazz.

Brandon Knight hopes to recover after scoring eight points on 3-of-18 shooting Monday.

The Suns have dropped three in a row and six of the past seven matchups in Salt Lake City.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA Odds: Thursday, March 17 2016 Opening Line Report and Handicapping
by Alan Matthews

Looking for a breakout-type superstar in the NBA next season like Golden State's Steph Curry was last year? I give you Milwaukee's Giannis Antetokounmpo, a true Greek Freak who can basically play every position on the court at 6-foot-11 and with the wingspan with a pterodactyl. I've seen this guy go coast-to-coast in just four dribbles because his steps are so big. Antetokounmpo is still just 21 and he has exploded since Coach Jason Kidd moved him to point guard. Antetokounmpo is averaging nearly 20 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists in the 16 games since shifting there. He has four triple-doubles in that stretch. The Bucks have disappointed this season, but they have a bright future behind the Freak, Jabari Parker and a few other pieces. And should Milwaukee somehow win the draft lottery, look out! No TNT doubleheader this Thursday as that network is part of the NCAA Tournament coverage.


Raptors at Pacers (TBA)

Toronto won in Milwaukee on Tuesday, 107-89. It was the second of a back-to-back, so DeMar DeRozan got the night off for rest -- his first game missed this season. Center Jonas Valanciunas also sat, but with a hand injury. That's not thought to be serious. Indiana beat visiting Boston 103-98 on Tuesday. A 15-4 run midway through the fourth quarter was the difference. Paul George had 25 points. The Pacers are one home win away from clinching a winning record on their home court for the 27th consecutive season. These teams have split two meetings. Indiana snapped a five-game losing streak to Toronto with a 106-90 win on Dec. 14.

Key trends: Toronto is 8-1 against the spread in the past nine meetings. The "over/under" is 5-1 in the previous six.

Early lean: Wait on Valanciunas, although I expect him to go.

Wizards at 76ers (TBA)

Washington hosted Chicago on Wednesday with Bradley Beal in question after just returning from injury. Philly lost a second in a row Tuesday, 131-114 in Brooklyn. The Sixers led once: 3-0. Isaiah Canaan led the 76ers with 20 points. They have lost 15 of 16. The Wizards are 3-0 vs. the 76ers this season, taking all by at least eight points.

Key trends: Washington is 4-1 ATS in the past five meetings. The over is 7-2 in Philly's past nine.

Early lean: Wizards can't play around in games like this as they battle for a playoff spot. They win, Beal or not.

Hornets at Heat (-4, 204.5)

Charlotte hosted Orlando on Wednesday. Miami beat Denver 124-119 on Monday. Rookie Justise Winslow led with 20 points, and Hassan Whiteside had 18 points and 10 rebounds. The Heat reached 100 points for the eighth consecutive game. Dwyane Wade now needs 24 points to reach 20,000 career. Final regular-season matchup with Miami leading 2-1. It has won 12 straight at home vs. the Hornets.

Key trends: The Heat have covered 14 of the past 21 meetings. The over is 7-0 in the past seven in Miami.

Early lean: Heat and over.

Nuggets at Hawks (-7, 208.5)

Atlanta was in Detroit on Wednesday. Denver lost a second straight Tuesday, 116-110 in Orlando. Coach Mike Malone benched starters Kenneth Faried and JaKarr Sampson for the final 18 minutes. Faried had gone 11-for-11 from the field the night before in Miami but got only 15 minutes vs. the Magic. Denver lost the first meeting by 14 at home and has dropped three in a row in Atlanta.

Key trends: Denver is 7-2 ATS in its past nine road games vs. teams with a winning home record. The over is 5-1 in Atlanta's past six in the second of a back-to-back.

Early lean: Nuggets and over.

Nets at Bulls (TBA)

Chicago was in D.C. on Wednesday potentially again without Derrick Rose and definitely sans Pau Gasol. Brooklyn avoided the embarrassment of losing the season series with the 76ers thanks to a 131-114 win on Tuesday to snap a four-game losing streak. Bojan Bogdanovic had a career-high 44 points. That's the most points by any Nets player since the franchise moved to Brooklyn. Chicago won in Brooklyn on the second night of the season but then lost at home to the Nets in December. Chicago has dropped two straight at home in the series.

Key trends: The Nets are 3-7 ATS in the past 10 meetings. The over is 12-3 in Brooklyn's past 15 on one day of rest.

Early lean: I could see a Nets upset here if Bulls are down Rose and Gasol. You might not see Jimmy Butler play the second of a back-to-back, either.

Grizzlies at Bucks (TBA)

Memphis hosted Minnesota on Wednesday with half the Grizzlies team out injured or questionable. Milwaukee's three-game winning streak ended in a 107-89 home loss to Toronto on Tuesday. Antetokounmpo had 18 points, 12 rebounds and nine assists, just missing another triple-double. Forward John Henson returned after missing 20 games with a sore lower back but played only six minutes. Memphis won in Milwaukee 103-83 on Jan. 28, but the Grizzlies were pretty much whole then.

Key trends: The home team is 5-1 ATS in the past six meetings. The under is 9-1 in the past 10.

Early lean: Bucks by double digits.

Trail Blazers at Spurs (-10.5, 207)

Your lone national TV game on NBA TV. Portland lost 128-94 in Oklahoma City on Monday. Damian Lillard had 21 points, but the Blazers shot a season-low 34.1 percent. San Antonio stayed unbeaten at home with a 108-87 win over the Clippers on Tuesday. The Spurs are actually ahead of the Warriors for one home record: longest streak to open a season. It was San Antonio's 33rd straight, and the NBA record is 37 by the Chicago Bulls in their 72-win season. Golden State is currently 31-0 at home. San Antonio has trailed for fewer than 10 minutes this season at home. Crazy. The Spurs are 2-0 this season against the Blazers and going for the first season sweep since the 2007-08 campaign. Portland is a solid 3-3 in its past six in San Antonio but lost there by 13 on Nov. 16. Both games between these clubs were very early in the season.

Key trends: The home team is 9-3 ATS in the past 12 meetings. The over is 5-1 in the past six.

Early lean: I'm taking Portland -- no way the Spurs aren't looking ahead to Saturday's mega-showdown at home with Golden State. Go over.

Suns at Jazz (TBA)

Phoenix ended a three-game winning streak with a 107-104 home win over Minnesota on Monday. Mirza Teletovic hit the winning 3-pointer with 1.2 seconds left. P.J. Tucker led Phoenix with a career-high 23 points. Utah won a third straight Monday, 94-85 vs. Cleveland despite playing without leading scorer Gordon Hayward, who has plantar fasciitis in his right foot. That can take a while to recover from. Rodney Hood led Utah with 28 points. Reserve Joe Ingles started in Hayward's place. Utah leads the season series 2-0, holding Phoenix to exactly 89 points in each.

Key trends: The Suns are 1-6 ATS in the past seven in Utah. The under is 15-6 in the past 21 meetings.

Early lean: Wait on Hayward but go under regardless of number.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NBA

Thursday's hot teams
-- Wizards won last two games, by 43-23 points (4-2AF).
-- Toronto won four of its last five games (2-4 last 6AF). Indiana also is 4-1 in its last five games (3-3HU).
-- Charlotte won eight of its last nine games (11-10AU). Miami is 7-2 in its last nine games (2-4 last 6HF).
-- Denver won four of its last six games (1-3 last 4AU). Atlanta is 8-2 in its last ten games (2-5 last 7HF).
-- Milwaukee won three of its last four games (6-1 last 7HF).
-- Spurs won 12 of their last 13 games (13-8-1 last 22HF).
-- Utah won/covered its last three games (2-4 last 6HF).

Cold teams
-- 76ers lost 15 of their last 16 games (1-5 last 6HU).
-- Memphis lost four of its last five games (3-2 last 5AU).
-- Brooklyn lost four of its last five games (4-2 last 6AU). Chicago lost three of its last four games (5-6 last 11HF).
-- Portland lost five of its last seven games (0-3 last 3AU).
-- Phoenix lost three of its last four games (3-1 last 4AU).

Series records
-- 76ers lost last five games with Washington (1-4 vs spread).
-- Pacers lost five of their last six games with Toronto.
-- Hornets lost three of last four games with Miami.
-- Hawks won three of last four games with Denver.
-- Grizzlies won nine of last ten games with Milwaukee.
-- Bulls won seven of last ten games with Brooklyn.
-- Spurs won three of last four games with Portland.
-- Jazz won five of last seven games with Phoenix.

Totals
-- Seven of last nine Philly games went over the total.
-- Nine of last 12 Toronto games went over the total.
-- Five of last six Miami games went over the total.
-- Over is 6-1-1 in last eight Denver games.
-- Six of last seven Memphis games went over total.
-- Five of last seven Brooklyn road games stayed under.
-- Five of last six Portland games went over the total.
-- Over is 3-1-1 in last five Phoenix games.

Back/backs
-- Wizards are 2-7 vs spread last nine times they played nite before.
-- Charlotte covered three of last four if it played night before.
-- Hawks are 5-8 vs spread last 13 times they played night before.
-- Memphis is 10-4 vs spread if it played the night before.
-- Bulls are 2-9 vs spread last 11 times they played night before.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Final Four Predictions

The college basketball season is underway with plenty of preseason tournaments over the next two months prior to conference action in January. Duke held off Wisconsin to claim its fifth championship in April, while Kentucky failed to finish off an undefeated season by losing to the Badgers in the Final Four. The Blue Devils and Wildcats each lost plenty of talent from last season’s squads but reloaded as usual, but there are a bunch of other schools that are vying for a Final Four bid and several have great cases.

Our stable of handicappers provided their predictions on who they believe will head to Houston for the Final Four in April. Kansas, Duke, Kentucky, North Carolina, and Maryland were the top teams selected, while Wichita State received recognition from several handicappers to return to the Final Four for the first time since 2013.

NCAA basketball expert Jimmy Boyd believes this will be the year that Maryland rises to the top of the Big 10, “Last year, the Terrapins went 14-4 in their first season in the Big 10, but didn't make a big splash in the NCAA Tournament, losing in their second game against West Virginia. While Maryland loses one of their leaders in Dez Wells, they are well equipped to make a serious run at a national championship. It all starts with sophomore point guard Melo Trimble, who was sensational as a freshman. Senior forward Jake Layman is back after averaging 12.5 ppg and 5.8 rpg. The Terps biggest splashes came in their recruiting, most notably transfers Robert Carter from Georgia Tech and Rasheed Sulaimon from Duke. Should be a special season for Maryland.”

Another Big 10 squad has the ability to ascend to the Final Four as James Manos predicts big things out of Bloomington, “Indiana seems to have all the pieces together for a serious title run. The Hoosiers return every significant contributor from last year, lose ZERO double-digit scorers, and no team in college basketball will benefit more from the NCAA's rule changes than this squad. When G James Blackmon Jr. returns to full health, he'll team with PG "Yogi" Ferrell to form one of the nation's best backcourts. Third G Robert Johnson is poised for a substantial jump in production and every talent grader, scout, and position evaluator calls his off-season improvement one of the best in the country. Head Coach Tom Crean can still coach and with Michigan St., Wisconsin, and Ohio St. all down from recent editions this is his chance to help the program rise…….a Final Four appearance will do that.”

Will there be a shocking development coming out of Wichita this season? Handicapper Joe Nelson believes the Shockers of Wichita State are primed for a title run, “Gregg Marshall is highly respected as one of the top coaches in the nation and his program maintains stability that few mid-major squads can after a run of success. The Shockers won’t be a surprise to have a great season opening up in the AP top 10 and with senior guards Ron Baker and Fred VanVleet the backcourt will rate among the nation’s best with Evan Wessel also returning and Kansas transfer Conner Frankamp joining the team. The schedule will take some scrutiny come March but it is a schedule that is conducive to 30-plus wins and given Wichita State’s success the past two seasons and the high ranking to start the season they should be able secure a strong seed in the Big Dance. With the national field looking much more wide open than last season there will be more room for a program outside of the typical national power group to make a deep run to the Final Four.”


Final Four Predictions

Team #1 Team #2 Team #3 Team #4

Andy Iskoe Arizona Kansas Virginia Wichita State

Antony Dinero Maryland North Carolina Kentucky Gonzaga

Bruce Marshall Wichita State Maryland Kentucky Iowa State

Doc's Sports Maryland Kansas North Carolina Gonzaga

Greg Smith Virginia Maryland Arizona North Carolina

James Manos Indiana Wichita State Duke UConn

Jim Feist Duke Michigan State Gonzaga Oklahoma

Jimmy Boyd Maryland Duke Iowa State Michigan State

Joe Nelson Kansas Virginia Kentucky Wichita State

Joe Williams Kentucky Duke Gonzaga Iowa State

John Fisher Maryland Kansas North Carolina Vanderbilt

Kevin Rogers Duke Kansas Virginia Kentucky

Kyle Hunter Kentucky Maryland Wichita State North Carolina

Marc Lawrence North Carolina Kansas Virginia Indiana

Stephen Nover Duke North Carolina Virginia Kentucky

The SportsBoss North Carolina Kentucky Kansas Villanova

Zack Cimini Kansas Syracuse N.C. State California

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Sportsbooks don't want these five teams to win March Madness
By JASON LOGAN

With conference tournaments coming to a close, the field for the NCAA tournament is taking shape. There are a number of teams going dancing this March that sportsbook do not want to see make a deep run in the bracket.

We talked with sportsbook operators in Nevada and offshore, getting the inside track on which programs hold the most liability to the futures book and which ones would do the most damage should they claim their “One Shining Moment” and win the national title.

Arizona Wildcats (Opened 20/1, Now 12/1)

The Wildcats are coming out of a very competitive Pac-12, so they’re tournament tough. Sean Miller always has a surplus of talent in Arizona, so getting the needed production in big games shouldn’t be a problem.

According to Steve Mikkelson, sportsbook director at the Atlantis Casino Resort in Reno, Nevada, the Wildcats are their only real threat to the futures book with the bulk of the bets coming in at their opening price of 20/1.

Indiana Hoosiers (Opened 50/1, Now 25/1)

The Hoosiers stunned the Big Ten by winning the conference regular season title but then fell on their faces against Michigan in the Big Ten tournament. Indiana puffed up its record in the second half of conference play, thanks to some weaker opponents, but failed to step up against the Big Ten’s top teams.

That said, Tom Crean knows how to make March magic going back to his days coaching Marquette, and that hasn’t escaped books, who hold some big liability on the Hoosiers, who took the most money at 35/1 this season.

Xavier Musketeers (Opened 100/1, Now 20/1)

Xavier was supposed to be a respectable program coming out of the Big East, not a four-loss powerhouse that currently has books shaking in their seats. The Musketeers opened as big as +10,000 to win the NCAA and a 12-0 run to start the season caught the attention of savvy NCAA bettors.

According to John Lester, line manager, some players bought up Xavier at 100/1 and steamed that priced all the way down to 60/1, eventually settling the Musketeers at 20/1 – among the favorites to win the national title.

“Xavier has us on edge right now. The Musketeers have looked the part of national champion most of this season and we have a good bit of liability on their futures,” says Lester. “If Xavier wins the national championship, we'll be lucky to break even for all of March Madness.”

Duke Blue Devils (Open 15/1, Now 5/1)

There’s never a shortage of Duke money come March Madness and more will be pouring in on the Blue Devils if they make a deep run in the tournament. Duke bowed out early in the ACC tournament, losing to North Carolina State, but the selection committee has always been kind to Coach K’s kids.

“Duke hurts us a little,” says Chris Andrews, sportsbook direct at the Southpoint Las Vegas. “They have a decent shot to win and they always seem to get over-seeded. A few guys nabbed us there at 15/1.”

Michigan State Spartans (Opened 40/1, Now 5/1)

Tom Izzo is always a threat to take his team to the Final Four – no matter the talent on the roster. The Spartans have been among the nation’s elite all season, and their futures odds have reflected that, but early-bird bettors could have grabbed MSU as big as 40/1 way back in March 2015, when 2015-16 odds hit the board.

There are a number of sportsbooks cheering against the Green and White this month, namely CG Technology and William Hill operations across Nevada. According to Jason Simbal, vice president of risk management for CG Technology, the Spartans would be their worst scenario and the action on Michigan State has accrued over the course of the season.

William Hill sportsbooks has the highest percentage of money and tickets riding on Sparty, reporting 11 percent of the total futures handle on MSU and 7 percent of tickets written on Izzo’s crew, which wrapped conference play on a six-game SU and ATS winning streak.

Other notables: San Diego State, Wichita State, Texas

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

CBB Betting: March Madness: The Seeds of Profit

The 2016 'Big Dance' (Round of 64) gets underway Thursday March 17, 2016. History is clear, no number-one seed has ever lost to a number-sixteen seed (124-0). It will happen eventually, maybe even this year, but it's unlikely.

Since 2003, top-seeds sport a perfect 52-0 SU record but with pointspreads close to twenty or higher the norm in the round of 64, things were not as rosy against the betting line as #1's posted a 26-25-1 ATS mark over the 13 year span including 18-22-1 ATS laying 20 or more points.

Taking a look at the five most recent NCAA Tornaments we break down which seeds do best and which struggle against the betting line.

#1 Seed vs #16 Seed
Last year, Villanova (-22), Duke (-22.5) covered the hefty number but Kentucky (-34), Wisconsin (-20) failed at the betting window. The #1 seed has covered 9 of 20 in the round of 64 (9-10-1 ATS) including 5-7-1 ATS laying 20 or more points.

#2 Seed vs #15 Seed
In 2015 the #2 Seed went 4-0 SU in the round of 64 but was a money-draining 1-3 against the spread. Double-digit pointspreads common in these matchups, the #2 Seed is a vig-losing 10-10 ATS the past five Tourney's. One bright spot is when the line is between 10 and 15 points for the #2 Seed. Those teams have covered seven of eleven games. However, laying 15.5 or more points the #2 Seeds are a money-burning 2-6 ATS. 2015 the #2 Seed went 1-3 ATS in the round of 64.

#3 Seed vs #14 Seed
The #3 Seeds were 2-2 SU last year with a cash draining 0-4 mark against the betting line with all four games playing 'Under' posted totals. As with the #2 Seed in this round the #3's are a vig-losing 10-10 ATS. Regardless of betting line, the #3 Seed struggles in the opening round. They're 5-4 ATS as single digit favorites, 5-6 ATS as double digit chalk. 'Under' gamblers have enjoyed success in this matchup cashing 13 of 20 tickets (6-13-1 O/U).

#4 Seed vs #13 Seed
#4 Seed has dominated this round the past three tourney's going 11-1 SU but are just 5-6-1 against the betting line including a cash-draining 0-2 ATS laying 4 to 6.5 points. The 'Under' has been a consistent winner with these two seeds staying 'Under in 8 of 12 matchups, 13-of-20 since 2011.

#5 Seed vs #12 Seed
Althoug the #5 Seed went 4-0 SU (3-1 ATS) last year this can be a hazardous pairing. The #12 Seed has won outright in seven of the past 16 matchups. Hand the #12 Seed +3.5 or less they're money in the bank posting a profitable 4-1-1 record against the betting line the past four Tournaments.

#6 Seed vs #11 Seed
Another tough pairing. The #6 Seed and #11 Seed have split the past twenty matchups with the #11 holding a slight edge at the betting window. (11-9 ATS). The #11 Seed has been a solid choice taking +4 to +6.5 coming in at 4-2 against the number.

#7 Seed vs #10 Seed
Since 2011 the #7 Seeds have cashed 11 of 20 (11-9 ATS) and been real money-makers the past three Tournaments at 8-4 against the betting line.

#8 Seed vs #9 Seed
The #8 Seed has had its way in this matchup winning 15 of the past 20 straight-up with a 12-7-1 record against the betting line. However, before blindly jumping all over the #8 beware they're 5-2 ATS as 4 to 6 point chalk but a money-draining 1-4-1 against the spread when handing #9's 2.5 or less points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB March Madness Betting Bible: Book I - Momentum, Skeds, and Travel
By JASON LOGAN

March Madness is spreading like a damn zombie apocalypse and seems to infect more and more people every year.

The NCAA tournament is one of three rare (and hypocritical) times of the year when the mainstream media embraces sports betting and all its sexy angles - with the others being Super Bowl and the Kentucky Derby. That means millions of people who never filled out a bracket (yes, that’s a form of gambling) or placed a wager on a game before will be breaking the betting seal this March.

Whether you’re one of those new faces on the sports betting scene (in that case, welcome. Nice to see you) or you’re a veteran of many a Madness, our NCAAB March Madness Betting Bible will come in handy over the next three weeks.

BOOK I: Momentum, Skeds, and Travel

Momentum

If you’re filling out your office pool bracket or capping the Round of 64 matchups, the first thing you need to consider before looking at anything is current form. Ask any oddsmaker and they’ll tell you that how a team is playing right now makes up the majority of a spread.

Teams that finished the season strong could have finally figured out their rotation or fixed issues that plagued their games all year. And some coaches, like Michigan State’s Tom Izzo or Kansas’ Bill Self, are all about getting his team to peak at the right time – just before the postseason – so any losses taken earlier in the year should be weighed a little lighter.

Conference tournaments also offer bettors a chance to cash in on red-hot runs. A perfect example was the 2011 UConn Huskies program that played its way into the NCAA tournament with an improbable run to the Big East title, building steam for a Cinderella run to the Final Four and national title. Sometimes the light switch just gets clicked at the right time.

On the other hand, teams that stumbled into the postseason – be it the conference tournament or into the NCAA after taking a bad loss in the league postseason – should be viewed with caution. Bettors need to dissect those defeats and see what was behind those losses.

Often times, an off-night for a superstar or key injury could have played into those games, putting the team in a spot it’s not normally in. Or maybe those losses came by close margins on the road in tough venues.

Sometimes, however, a team simply runs out of gas at the end of a long schedule and doesn’t have enough in the tank to push through the postseason. Looking into things like shooting percentage and turnovers per game in those home stretches can be telltale signs of a tired team.

Non-conference schedule/Weak conference

One of the favorite measuring sticks for the NCAA selection committee is strength of schedule.

For mid-major programs serious about making the tournament cut, who won’t get much attention once league play starts, lining up a solid tune-up slate is key. Finding out which teams have that giant killer potential is a great way to avoid being burned by a Cinderella run and finding hidden value in the tournament spreads.

In the 2014 NCAA tournament, No. 12 North Dakota State out of the Summit League stunned No. 5 Oklahoma in the Round of 64. That would seem like a sizable upset, except for the fact NDSU was just a 3.5-point underdog because bookmakers knew the Bison’s wouldn’t back down from OU. North Dakota State boasted the 15th toughest non-conference schedule in the country, taking on teams like St. Mary’s, Notre Dame and Ohio State before the New Year.

But battling a slew of challenges to start the season isn’t reserved to teams from small leagues. Major conference programs trying to separate from the pack have been going through a gauntlet of tough non-conference foes in order to prepare for the rigors of league play.

It’s no surprise to see elite programs like Kansas, North Carolina, Kentucky and Gonzaga take on all challengers early in the calendar. And especially in major conferences suffering through down years, like the SEC and AAC, getting a read on how a team performs against programs outside of its usual schedule is key for capping later round matchups.

In that same vein, bettors and bracketeers should know which conferences were the most competitive and which ones lacked true depth. This can go for mid-majors and the big boy leagues as well. A one-loss conference record for a team from a shallow talent pool may not hold up against a team that went 10-6 in league action but played tough opponents night in and night out.

Heading into this year’s tournament, basketball fans have to question top-heavy leagues like the SEC and Big East while conferences such as the Atlantic 10 provided more consistent competition for its elite teams.

Travel

Depending on where they seed in the NCAA pecking order, and the selection committee’s dedication to competitive balance among their bracket principles, teams can either find itself just miles from campus or on the other side of the country for the first two games of the tournament.

Factoring in any home-court edge is a great way to milk the most out of pointspreads and can be a solid decider if you’re on the fence about who to advance in your bracket pool.

Last year, teams like Kentucky (played in Louisville) and Duke (played in Charlotte) enjoyed short trips and friendly crowds in their opening games while schools like VCU (played in Portland) and San Diego State (played in Charlotte) were forced to hop long plane rides on short notice to play in a faraway venues – both failing to make it out of the weekend.

Getting a grip on which teams can play on the road is also an important task when making your next move. Some programs thrive on a serious home-court edge but flounder away from home. The Indiana Hoosiers have always been a tough team to beat in Assembly Hall but look like a different team when they hit the highway.

Going over home/away splits, accounting for wins/losses, ATS road records, shooting percentage and points allowed should give you an idea of which teams are road tested and which ones will be home sick during the NCAA tournament.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB March Madness Betting Bible: Book II - Droughts, Experience, and Coaching
By JASON LOGAN

March Madness is spreading like a damn zombie apocalypse and seems to infect more and more people every year.

The NCAA tournament is one of three rare (and hypocritical) times of the year when the mainstream media embraces sports betting and all its sexy angles - with the others being Super Bowl and the Kentucky Derby. That means millions of people who never filled out a bracket (yes, that’s a form of gambling) or placed a wager on a game will be breaking the betting seal this March.

Whether you’re one of those new faces on the sports betting scene (in that case, welcome. Nice to see you) or you’re a veteran of many a Madness, our NCAAB March Madness Betting Bible will come in handy over the next three weeks.

BOOK II: Droughts, Experience, and Coaching

Tournament droughts/Bubble teams

For most programs, making the NCAA field of 68 is a big deal, especially when you find smaller programs who have never been to the Big Dance before or major conference members snapping an extended tournament drought. These team offer letdown value in their opening game of the NCAA.

For mid-major teams, that perhaps stunned their conference favorite in their respective league tournament, a trip to the NCAA wasn’t in the cards until that conference championship upset. And many times, these mid-major Cinderellas fall flat in their first game with a sense of accomplishment for just making to the Final 68.

The same fate can easily be in store for major conference programs who have to blow the dust of their dancing shoes following a long hiatus from NCAA play. Despite being a recognizable name, the players can sometimes get caught up in “just being there” and lay an egg when it comes time to perform, not realizing the level of intensity needed to advance in the tournament.

Another group to watch out for are those teams usually shown on CBS Selection Sunday, gathered in the locker room or athletics center to see if they made the NCAA cut or not. Bubble teams that squeaked into the national tournament, either by a late-season run or a few impressive wins in the conference tourney, can also get caught in a letdown after escaping the ax.

Experience vs. Talent

This is one the biggest debates basketball fans – bettors or not – can get into during tournament time. What is worth more: experience or talent? Factor in their worth to the spread and you can quickly get sucked down this worm hole, created by the NBA’s draft rules.

Since players can’t jump to the pros straight from high school any more – needing to be 19 years old and out of high school for a year before declaring for the draft – the freshman class is often the most talented class in college. First-year players good enough for the pros leave school for the NBA – the “one and done” crew – with the leftover, less-talented group forming the sophomore class.

And if those second-year student athletes aren’t good enough to get drafted or play pro ball overseas or in the NBADL, they stick around the college ranks joining a watered-down junior and senior group of players.

Heavyweight programs like Kentucky, North Carolina, and Kansas get the most exposure, which is an easy sell to a high school kid looking to juice his draft stock in one year of NCAA ball. That’s why you usually see the five-star studs keep landing in the same spots. These are hands down the most talented teams.

Kentucky proved that talent can trump experience with their dominant run to the national title in 2012, fueled by a stellar crop of freshman, headlined by Anthony Davis. But, on the flip side of that argument, the Butler Bulldogs – out of the Horizon League - made runs to the national title game in 2010 and 2011 with a roster loaded with experience (three seniors, five juniors/five seniors, three juniors).

Perhaps the best way to gauge a freshman-heavy team is the supporting cast. If you have a starting lineup with three of four freshman, find out who is the upperclassmen rounding out the lineup or who is the sixth man off the bench? Does this player bring enough experience to steady the young kids and step up when needed?

This year's Kentucky team is among the youngest in the country - ranked second youngest among major conference programs - but those seven freshmen are surrounded by two sophomores, five juniors and senior Alex Poythress, all of which either went to the national championship in 2014 and/or the Final Four last season.

And for a program with a surplus of seniors and juniors, bettors and bracketologist should check into just how weathered those players really are. A group that has lost steadily for two or three years, only to finally make the NCAA, may not know what it takes to get the job done and have only experience losing – not winning.

North Carolina is one of the more experienced teams in the country with six seniors and five juniors on the roster. The Tar Heels were knocked out in the Sweet 16 last season after failing to survive the first weekend in the previous two tournaments. Roy Williams is hoping that postseason experience intersects with his team’s surplus of top talent this March, making for a deep run in the “Big Dance”.

Some may think that an experienced team is used to the long and trying college basketball season, where a younger side may see its players hit the feared “freshman wall”. While this theory used to hold water, the key role of AAU competition (Amateur Athletic Union) in helping high school players get noticed by NCAA scouts has made high-level basketball a year-round season for college-bound players.

So, not only are the top freshmen in the country breaking through the “wall” with ease but at this point in the schedule – if they’re lucky enough to be among the field of 68 – they really can’t be considered wet behind the ears.

Coaching

College sports are often more dictated by who’s on the sidelines than the players on the floor or field. Unlike in the pros, college head coaches have full control over which players they bring in and design a program around the system they want to run. Handicapping a coach is just as important as breaking down a team’s starting five at this point in the season.

Banking on a veteran coach, with plenty of NCAA games under their belts, is a smart move later in the tournament, when the pressure is higher and adjustments are premium with the quick turnaround between games. A first-time tournament coach may not know how to react to the intensity of an opening round game or be clear-minded enough to make key calls need to win.

There’s a reason teams like Michigan State with Tom Izzo, Arizona with Sean Miller, Kansas with Bill Self and Duke with Mike Krzyzewski always seem to be among the names escaping the first weekend of the tournament each March.

For those capping some lesser-known NCAA contenders, take a look at the head coach’s resume and examine their coaching tree. While they may not have taken this current school to the Big Dance they could have been an assistant with a big-name program, getting on-the-job training when it comes to sealing the deal come tournament time.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAB March Madness Betting Bible: Book III - Telltale signs of a Cinderella
By JASON LOGAN

Everyone loves fairy tales, which is why more and more people love March Madness. The promise of the Cinderella team has captured the nation’s hearts ever since Jimmy Valvano and the upstart North Carolina State Wolfpack shocked their way to the national championship in 1983.

For basketball bettors, whether you’re wagering on NCAA games or filling out a tournament bracket for your annual March Madness pool, spotting the Cinderella before the clock strikes midnight is the road to riches. While the majority of March Madness aficionados pick their jaws up off the ground, those skilled enough to spot the tournament sleeper are counting their cash and touting a bracket free of red ink.

In the first two books of Covers’ NCAAB March Madness Betting Bible, we explored some overall handicapping tools that will help you get through the tournament. Now, in Book III, we look at key attributes bettors and bracketeers should look for when searching for Cinderella this March.

BOOK III: TELLTALE SIGNS OF A CINDERELLA

Non-conference schedule

Most tournament stunners hinted at their upset potential early into the college hoops season. The only problem is 99.9 percent of March Madness bettors don’t pay attention to the NCAA ranks until Selection Sunday. From the early tipoff tournaments to the conference championships, it’s a wiseguys game.

Before automatically penciling a recognizable program past a lower-seeded mid-major you should take a trip back in time, before the New Year, and see just who these small schools sharpened their teeth against this season, and even the year before.

Looking at previous Cinderella teams like Davidson in 2008 or Florida Gulf Coast in 2013, you’ll find a bevy of big-name programs on their non-conference schedules. The Wildcats, led by Stephen Curry, clashed with fellow Carolina rivals Duke and UNC on the regular and also took on UCLA and North Carolina that season. And the Eagles’ 2012-13 calendar was packed with notable names like Duke, St. John’s, Iowa State, and VCU.

Potential Cinderellas don’t necessarily have to knock off those Goliaths during non-conference competition, with the experience of playing at that high level preparing them for tournament time. Mid-majors with plenty of major conference foes on the docket are less likely to be overwhelmed by their opponents in the opening rounds of March Madness.

How those underdogs did against the spread versus serious non-conference competition is also, at the very least, a solid indicator of a sleeper bet early in the tournament. That 2007-08 Davidson team was 0-4 SU versus UNC, Duke, UCLA and NC State but covered the spread in each of those non-conference games. The Wildcats would go on to run through Georgetown, Gonzaga, and Wisconsin in the tournament before losing to eventual-champ Kansas by two points in the Elite Eight – going a perfect 4-0 ATS in the Big Dance.

Playmakers/Game breakers

The top talents in the NCAA making the jump to the pros each year come from the same NBA-factory programs like Kentucky, Duke and North Carolina. However, there are always one or two mid-major guys, playing under the radar all year, that sneak into the first round of the draft. And often times, an impressive display on the national stage is what got those players from smaller schools recognized.

There are a handful of current and former NBA players that sparked a Cinderella upset during their college days, like Curry at Davidson, Courtney Lee at Western Kentucky, Eric Maynor at VCU, Gordon Hayward at Butler, and Adam Morrison at Gonzaga. Having the best player on the floor can sometimes be enough. A go-to guy keeps opponents honest on defense and makes the big shot, which is key for Cinderellas.

It's the reason "Ali Farokhmanesh" is a household name among March Madness fans.

3-point shooting/rebounding/defense

When breaking down Cinderellas from a statistical approach, some of the more common numbers that pop up are terrific 3-point shooting, the ability to rebound and keep opponents off the boards, and a defense that can hold up against talent-stuffed favorites.

The ability to knock down the 3-ball is very important for underdog teams, allowing them to keep pace with a bigger stronger opponent who may be able to bully their way to the basket for easy looks. A perfect example is Northern Iowa’s upset over Kansas (hinted at above) in the second round of the 2010 NCAA tournament. The Panthers sunk nine 3-pointers in that game and left a towering KU frontcourt powerless.

In Norfolk State’s Round of 64 upset of Missouri in 2012 – a No. 15 over No. 2 seed – the Spartans dominated the glass, pulling down 35 boards with 14 on the offensive end (including a game-winning tip-in) while holding the Tigers to just 23 totals rebounds and only six offensive boards. Norfolk State scored 16 second-chance points on those offensive putbacks, and free points can turn any mid-major team into a potential giant killer - or at least a spread coverer.

On the defensive side of the ball, a mid-major program that prides itself on defense can often turn those stops and turnovers into easy buckets. George Mason nearly rode its hard-nosed defense all the way to the national title game in 2006. The Patriots, who ranked 21st in defense (60.1 points against per game), shut down super powers Michigan State, and North Carolina in the first two games of the tournament and held Wichita State to 55 points before winning an overtime shootout with UConn in the Elite Eight.

Different styles/matchups

Half of the success of Cinderella schools is that they found favorable matchups in their opening round opponents, going against teams that have never faced an offense or defense like that presented or get stuck in a bad mismatch of pace, which can shake a team out of its game plan. This goes back to Paul Westhead’s up-tempo offense with Loyola Marymount in the late 1980’s.

The most recent example of this are the Florida Gulf Coast Eagles, who used a run-and-gun style of play against the Georgetown Hoyas’ methodical Princeton offense in the Round of 64 in the 2013 NCAA tournament. The Eagles put the Hoyas on their heels, forced them out of their tempo and capitalized on 14 turnovers with fastbreak finishes.

The VCU Rams burst on to the national scene with a run in the 2011 NCAA tournament, backed behind head coach Shaka Smart’s havoc defense. The Rams went with all-out 55, full-court pressure defense, making it tough for opponents to inbound the ball, advance over half, and get into an offensive set with enough time left on the shot clock to get the look they wanted. Virginia Commonwealth forced a total of 69 turnovers in its first five NCAA games (including the play-in) for an average of 13.8 takeaways before losing to Butler in the Final Four.

When trying Cinderella’s slipper on this year’s tiny dancers, get to know the team philosophy and what sets them apart from the pack. Then measure that approach – either on offense or defense – against what their opening-round matchup brings to the table and the types of playbooks and defensive schemes they’ve dealt with during conference play (Do they milk each possession? How have they gone against a lot of zone or pressure-heavy teams?).

Teams playing on Thursday and Friday don’t have a lot of time for film study between Selection Sunday and the opening tip, especially coordinating a small army of players, coaches, assistants and training staff to travel on short notice. Perhaps Cinderella's greatest weapon is the element of surprise.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

The 68 things you need to know before betting on March Madness
By JOE FORTENBAUGH

Let’s start with the basics: A No. 16-seed has never beaten a No. 1-seed, only seven No. 15-seeds have had success over a No. 2-seed, no team seeded 13th or lower has ever reached the Elite Eight, and only three teams seeded 11th or lower have ever reached the Final Four.

In addition, no team seeded ninth or lower has ever won the NCAA tournament, with No. 8-seed Villanova (1985) still standing as the biggest shocker in college basketball history to win the dance.

Now that we’ve gotten an introductory lesson out of the way, let’s move on to some advanced concepts, shall we?

1. Kansas Jayhawks (30-4 SU, 20-11 ATS, 11-19-1 O/U): 2016 marks the sixth time in the last 10 years that the Jayhawks have landed a No. 1 seed, with the other four years in question featuring three No. 2 seeds and one No. 3 seed. The Jayhawks enter the tournament as perhaps the hottest team in the nation following a 14-game winning streak that included an 11-3 record against the spread.

1. North Carolina Tar Heels (28-6 SU, 16-17-1 ATS, 17-17 O/U): This is the sixth time the Tar Heels have earned a No. 1 seed under head coach Roy Williams. Of those six instances, two have resulted in national championships, one resulted in a trip to the Final Four and two others resulted in Elite Eight appearances. North Carolina is one of the best first-half teams in the country, as evidenced by the team’s first-half scoring average (39.5 pts, 7th in NCAA) and first-half scoring margin of victory (+6.6 pts, 17th in NCAA).

1. Virginia Cavaliers (26-7 SU, 17-14 ATS, 12-19 O/U): This is a methodical offense that consistently produces low-scoring finals, as evidenced by Virginia’s 12-19 O/U record this season. Of 351 NCAA teams tracked, Virginia ranks dead last in the country in possessions per game (62.4).

1. Oregon Ducks (28-6 SU, 19-12 ATS, 14-17 O/U): Since falling in back-to-back Bay Area matchups against California and Stanford, respectively, the Ducks have shifted into high gear and now own an eight-game winning streak (5-3 ATS) in which they’ve outscored the opposition by 12.2 points per game. This is one of the deadliest offenses in the country (119.4 points per 100 possessions, fifth in NCAA), but the defense is cause for concern at times (97.4 points per 100 possessions, 50th in NCAA).

2. Michigan State Spartans (29-5 SU, 22-11 ATS, 16-17 O/U): This will be the trendiest non-No. 1 seed pick to win and for good reason. No team in the country finished the season with a larger scoring margin than Sparty (+16.8), in addition to the fact that Michigan State ranked first in assists per game (20.7) and first in three-point percentage (.435). However, be advised that no team that shoots more than 35 percent of its attempts from 3-point range has won the tournament in 13 years. Sparty shot 35.3 percent of its shots from 3-point range this season.

2. Oklahoma Sooners (25-7 SU, 12-18 ATS, 13-17 O/U): The Sooners live and die by the 3-point shot more than any other team near the top of the bracket, as 38.9 percent of Oklahoma’s points were scored from behind the line this season (12th-most in NCAA). Battle tested, but they’ve failed to cover the number in five straight and nine of their last 11.

2. Villanova Wildcats (29-5 SU, 15-17-1 ATS, 17-15-1 O/U): The Wildcats rank seventh in adjusted defense (93.0 points per 100 possessions) and 11th in adjusted offense (117.2 points per 100 possessions), but faced a weaker overall schedule when compared to the other high seeds and were upset by Seton Hall 69-67 in the Big East final. Have failed to cover the number in six of their last eight outings, but rank second in the NCAA in free-throw percentage (77.7 percent).

2. Xavier Musketeers (27-5 SU, 19-13 ATS, 21-11 O/U): Upset by upstart Seton Hall 87-83 in the Big East Tournament despite closing as a 5-point favorite, Xavier enters March Madness having failed to cover the number in three of its last four outings. But take note that the Musketeers excel at getting to the stripe, as Xavier was fouled an average of 23.1 times per game this season, good for most in the entire country.

3. West Virginia Mountaineers (26-8 SU, 20-11 ATS, 14-16-1 O/U): Not only has Bob Huggins’ crew covered the spread in six of its last seven outings, but West Virginia enters March Madness having forced their opponents into more turnovers (18.1 per game) than any other program in the country.

3. Utah Utes (26-8 SU, 16-15-1 ATS, 18-13-1 O/U): The Utes are 7-2 ATS over their last nine games overall and 4-0-2 ATS over their last six matchups against Mountain West opposition. Had a nine-game winning streak snapped in the Pac-12 championship game thanks to an 88-57 blowout against top-seed Oregon.

3. Miami Hurricanes (25-7 SU, 18-12-1 ATS, 15-16 O/U): As 5-foot-11 PG Angel Rodriguez goes (11.7 pts, 4.4 assists), so go the Hurricanes. Won eight of 10 games to close out the regular season before losing to Virginia in the second round of the ACC tournament. KenPom.com ranks Miami 12th in adjusted offense, but just 44th in adjusted defense. Take note that 2016 is the 10-year anniversary of when current Miami head coach Jim Larranaga guided George Mason to an improbable berth in the Final Four.

3. Texas A&M Aggies (26-8 SU, 15-12-2 ATS, 12-17 O/U): If they get hot from deep, look out. Won their final six regular season games to claim the conference, but fell to Kentucky in overtime of the SEC title game, 82-77. Keep an eye on freshman big man Tyler Davis (11.1 points, 6.1 rebounds), who is a big reason why this program currently ranks 12th in adjusted defense (93.7 points surrendered per 100 possessions).

4. Iowa State Cyclones (21-11 SU, 15-13-1 ATS, 13-15-1 O/U): A nine-game winning streak to commence the season eventually transitioned into a 12-game stretch to close the year in which the Cyclones dropped seven matchups (5-7 ATS). On the plus side, only two teams in the entire country (Texas Southern, Northern Iowa) committed fewer fouls per game than Iowa State this season (15.5 fouls/game).

4. California Golden Bears (23-10 SU, 18-14-1 ATS, 16-17 O/U): Too bad California can’t play any tournament games at Hass Pavilion, as the Golden Bears went a perfect 18-0 at home this season. However, Cuonzo Martin’s program finished just 5-10 away from the Berkeley campus, which included a March 3 heartbreaking defeat at Arizona by the final score of 64-61.

4. Kentucky Wildcats (26-8 SU, 18-16 ATS, 19-14-1 O/U): Led by the best point guard in America in Tyler Ulis (17.2 points, 7.2 assists), the Wildcats enter March Madness having won and covered in five straight contests. The opposition can’t afford to lose track of freshman guard Jamal Murray (20.1 points, 5.1 rebounds), who can burn you from deep in a hurry (42.1 percent from three-point range). Predictably, head coach John Calipari was pissed off about his team’s draw in the tournament.

4. Duke Blue Devils (23-10 SU, 13-17-2 ATS, 14-18 O/U): Freshman guard Brandon Ingram (16.8 points, 6.8 rebounds) could be the No. 1 overall pick in this summer’s NBA draft. However, note that the Blue Devils went 3-4 SU over their final seven contests and failed to cover the spread in each of their last five games. This is a Top-25 three-point shooting team (38.7 percent) that ranks fourth in the NCAA in first-half scoring (40.6 points per game).

5. Maryland Terrapins (25-8 SU, 15-16-1 ATS, 12-19-1 O/U): One of the most lethal starting fives in the country, assuming they are on the same page. The Terrapins were a streaky group this season, winning 15 of 16 to open the year before dropping five of eight to close out their campaign. Could go all the way to the Final Four or see their hopes dashed before the end of opening weekend. A second-round date with California in Spokane would be must-see television.

5. Baylor Bears (22-11 SU, 12-14-1 ATS, 15-12 O/U): They pass the ball as well as any team in the nation (17.8 assists/gm, 7th in NCAA) and are battle-tested coming out of the Big 12, with marquee wins over Iowa State and Texas, but with multiple defeats suffered at the hands of West Virginia, Kansas and Oklahoma. Senior forward Taurean Prince (15.5 points, 6.1 rebounds) is the NBA prospect to keep an eye on here.

5. Indiana Hoosiers (25-7 SU, 17-15 ATS, 15-17 O/U): Credit head coach Tom Crean for turning a disappointing 5-3 start to the season into a 20-4 closeout that included a Big Ten regular season championship. The Hoosiers enter tournament play having covered the number in four of their last six outings thanks to a high-octane offense (82.3 pts/gm, 11th in NCAA) led by senior guard Yogi Ferrell (17.0 points, 5.5 assists, 3.9 rebounds). Be advised that a possible second-round date with Kentucky looms large.

5. Purdue Boilermakers (26-8 SU, 18-11-1 ATS, 15-15 O/U): Fifth in the NCAA in assists (17.8 per game), 10th in rebounding (41.2 per game) and 18th in adjusted defense (94.5 points surrendered per 100 possessions), Purdue should be respected if not feared in the Midwest Region. Seven-foot senior center A.J. Hammons, 7-foot-2 sophomore center Isaac Hayes and 6-foot-9 freshman forward Caleb Swanigan will make life miserable for those who try to penetrate. Big-time dark horse candidate right here.

6. Texas Longhorns (20-12 SU, 16-15 ATS, 13-17-1 O/U): What you need to know about Texas is that Shaka Smart’s program is the most battle-tested team in the nation, with a strength of schedule Pythagorean rating of .7732, according to KenPom.com.

6. Arizona Wildcats (25-8 SU, 16-17 ATS, 22-11 O/U): A top-notch scoring unit that ranks 17th in adjusted offense (116.1 points per 100 possessions) and 31st in 3-point efficiency (38.3 percent), but struggles on the other end of the floor (69.0 points per game allowed, 102nd in NCAA). Take note that the Over has hit in 66.6 percent of all Arizona games this season. However, the Wildcats failed to cover the number in seven of their last nine outings and must travel all the way to Providence, Rhode Island for opening weekend.

6. Notre Dame Fighting Irish (21-11 SU, 14-15-1 ATS, 15-15 O/U): Tough to handicap due to their inconsistent nature, as the Irish were up and down all season while never winning more than four consecutive games during any stretch. Offense isn’t the problem (117.8 points per 100 possessions, 10th in NCAA), but the defense leaves a lot to be desired (103.7 points surrendered per 100 possessions, 172nd in NCAA). The player to watch is junior guard Demetrius Jackson (15.5 points, 4.8 assists, 3.5 rebounds).

6. Seton Hall Pirates (25-8 SU, 23-9 ATS, 14-18 O/U): One of the most profitable programs in all the land (23-9 ATS), Seton Hall caught fire down the stretch with nine wins over their last 11 regular season games before scorching Creighton, Xavier and Villanova in the Big East tournament en route to a conference championship. The Pirates have covered the number in six of their last seven outings, are in the big dance for the first time in a decade and have one of the most bankable big men in basketball in Angel Delgado (10.0 points, 9.4 rebounds). Watch out.

7. Iowa Hawkeyes (21-10 SU, 14-14 ATS, 14-14 O/U): Raced out to a 19-4 start before running out of gas at the end of the season, resulting in a 2-6 mark over the program’s final eight games which included a first-round exit in the Big Ten tournament. Even worse, Iowa covered the number just once over its final eight contests this season. Hard to get behind a team in such poor form at such a critical time.

7. Oregon State Beavers (19-12 SU, 16-13-1 ATS, 20-10 O/U): This is Oregon State’s first tournament appearance in 26 years, so you know the program is stoked to be here, no matter the first-round opponent (vs. VCU in Oklahoma City). The Beavers cash a lot of Over tickets (20-10 O/U, seven Overs in last eight games) and feature one hell of a senior guard in Gary Payton II (son of The Glove), who is averaging 15.9 points, 7.9 rebounds and 5.1 assists per game this season.

7. Wisconsin Badgers (20-12 SU, 16-16 ATS, 14-18 O/U): Back in the dance despite the shocking retirement of head coach Bo Ryan in December. Got bounced from the Big Ten tournament by Nebraska in the first round, but take note that the Badgers have covered the number in 10 of their last 14 outings. Junior forward Nigel Hayes (16.3 points, 5.8 rebounds, 3.0 assists) is what makes Wisconsin tick.

7. Dayton Flyers (25-7 SU, 13-17-1 ATS, 14-16-1 O/U): Nothing about this offense will excite you, but that’s just fine because Dayton is all about getting stops, as evidenced by the fact that this program ranks 14th in the nation in adjusted defense (93.8 points per 100 possessions). The good news is that the Flyers are 12-1 this season when the roster is 100 percent healthy, which is expected for Thursday’s opening round game against Syracuse. The bad news is that Dayton has covered the spread just once over their last 10 outings.

8. Colorado Buffaloes (22-11 SU, 19-11 ATS, 15-15 O/U): Covered the spread in six of their final seven contests entering March Madness and the argument could be made that this is the most underrated team in the tournament. One of the best rebounding teams in the nation (42.4 rebounds/gm, 4th in NCAA) thanks, in large part, to the play of 6-foot-10 senior forward Josh Scott (16.1 points, 8.7 rebounds, 1.9 assists).

8. St. Joseph’s Hawks (27-7 SU, 22-10-1 ATS, 19-13-1 O/U): The Atlantic 10 champions failed to cover in four of their final five games to close out the regular season, but went 3-0 both SU and ATS in conference tournament play despite closing as underdogs in two of three matchups. Note that St. Joe’s has been on a scoring spree as of late, recording 82 or more points eight times over their final 12 contests while averaging 82.6 points per game during that aforementioned 12-game stretch.

8. USC Trojans (21-12 SU, 18-14-1 ATS, 18-14-1 O/U): The Trojans enter the tournament having dropped seven of their last 10 games while failing to cover the spread in 10 of their last 15 contests. Junior guards Julian Jacobs (11.8 points, 5.5 assists, 4.9 rebounds) and Katin Reinhardt (11.5 points, 2.8 rebounds, 1.4 assists) are an underrated duo without question, but Providence is going to give this team all it can handle in the Round of 64.

8. Texas Tech Red Raiders (19-12 SU, 15-13 ATS, 15-13 O/U): Big 12 Coach of the Year Tubby Smith has an explosive offense at his disposal that’s very bankable from the free-throw line (74.6 percent, 28th in NCAA). But the problems lie on the other end of the court where the Red Raiders rank 93rd in adjusted defense (100.1 points per 100 possessions). Have lost three of four entering March Madness, but do own a marquee victory over Buddy Hield and Oklahoma (February 17).

9. Connecticut Huskies (24-10 SU, 16-13-1 ATS, 13-16-1 O/U): At 78.0 percent, this is the best free-throw shooting team in the nation. Be advised that the Huskies rank just 303rd in the country in free-throw attempts (574), meaning UConn’s biggest strength has not been utilized nearly enough.

9. Cincinnati Bearcats (22-10 SU, 12-16 ATS, 10-17-1 O/U): Nothing fancy, just a solid, veteran-led squad that plays quality defense (62.9 points/gm, 10th in NCAA) and cleans up the glass (39.4 rebounds/gm, 39th in NCAA). The Bearcats won nine of their final 13 games preceding the tournament, but have covered the number just twice in their last seven outings.

9. Providence Friars (23-10 SU, 18-14 ATS, 19-13 O/U): The Friars boast an excellent one-two punch in two-way junior guard Kris Dunn (16.0 points, 6.4 assists, 5.5 rebounds) and sophomore forward Ben Bentil (21.2 points, 7.8 rebounds), but are too dependent upon the deep ball for scoring. Won four of five entering March Madness while covering five consecutive point spreads.

9. Butler Bulldogs (21-10 SU, 16-14-1 ATS, 16-13-1 O/U): The Bulldogs rank 19th in adjusted scoring (115.6 points per 100 possessions) and feature a big-time threat from 3-point range in senior guard Kellen Dunham (16.3 points, 42.8 percent from deep). They also enter the tournament having covered the spread in eight of their last 10 outings, with five of their last six contests going Over the total.

10. Temple Owls (21-11 SU, 17-13 ATS, 15-14-1 O/U): Won 10 of their final 13 games to qualify for March Madness, but the Owls are the lowest rated team (No. 86) to reach the tournament, according to Ken Pomeroy. The upside? Temple committed fewer turnovers (9.0 turnovers/gm) than any other team in the country this season.

10. VCU Rams (24-10 SU, 20-9 ATS, 14-15 O/U): Without question one of the most profitable teams in the country at 20-9 ATS on the season, the Rams still play quality defense under new head coach Will Wade, as evidenced by the fact that VCU ranked 22nd in adjusted defense this season (95.0 points per 100 possessions). The player to watch is senior guard Melvin Johnson (17.4 points, 2.6 rebounds).

10. Pittsburgh Panthers (21-11 SU, 12-17 ATS, 13-16 O/U): A solid rebounding team that works the ball around the court with the best of them (16.9 assists/gm, 14th in NCAA), Pitt has failed to cover the number in seven of its last nine outings and has lost three of its last four entering the tournament. The Panthers could get by Wisconsin in the first round, but that would likely set up a daunting date with No. 2 seed Xavier.

10. Syracuse Orange (19-13 SU, 16-15 ATS, 17-14 O/U): Very lucky to be here when you consider the Orange dropped five of their final six games to close out the season, not to mention the fact that they suffered a horrific loss to a lousy St. Johns team back on December 13. If Jim Boeheim’s crew has any hope of advancing, it will have to come on the defensive end of the floor where Syracuse ranked 38th this season in adjusted defense (96.4 points per 100 possessions).

11. Northern Iowa Panthers (22-12 SU, 19-13-1 ATS, 13-20 O/U): One of the hottest teams in the nation entering the tournament, Northern Iowa won 12 of their final 13 games of the season while going 11-1-1 ATS in the process. The Panthers love to play a slow, methodical style of basketball, as evidenced by the fact that Ben Jacobson’s program ranked 347th out of 351 schools in possessions per game this season (65.0).

11. Gonzaga Bulldogs (26-7 SU, 15-15-1 ATS, 16-15 O/U): They can score (79.7 pts/gm, 28th in NCAA), rebound (39.6 rebounds/gm, 33rd in NCAA) and defend (66.2 pts allowed/gm, 48th in NCAA), but Mark Few’s squad still needed an automatic bid to qualify for the Big Dance this season. Despite the low seed, Gonzaga checks two key boxes for us: They can knock down the 3-pointer (.378, 40th in NCAA) and are solid from the free-throw line (.760, 12th in NCAA).

11. Vanderbilt Commodores (19-13 SU, 15-15 ATS, 15-14-1 O/U): The Commodores won six of their final nine games to close out the season, but does a team with 13 losses really deserve an at-large bid to the tournament? At the very least we’ll get one more game of Wade Baldwin IV (14.3 points, 5.2 assists, 4.0 rebounds) and Damian Jones (14.2 points, 6.9 rebounds) - two NBA talents who could grind Vandy past Wichita State.

11. Wichita State Shockers (24-8 SU, 18-12 ATS, 13-16-1 O/U): No team in the country surrendered fewer points per game this season than the Shockers (59.3 pts/gm, first in NCAA). But more importantly, this is the fourth and final trip to the tournament for senior guards Fred VanVleet (12.0 points, 5.7 assists, 3.1 rebounds) and Ron Baker (14.2 points, 4.8 rebounds, 3.2 assists). Battle tested and without question better than their current seeding indicates.

11. Michigan Wolverines (22-12 SU, 16-16 ATS, 19-12-1 O/U): Quality wins over Texas, Indiana, Purdue and Maryland have the Wolverines back in the dance despite an offense that ranks 148th in the nation in scoring (74.3 pts/gm). Take note that despite the fact that the Over is 19-12 in Michigan games this season, the Under has hit in four of the program’s last five outings.

11. Tulsa Golden Hurricane (20-11 SU, 14-13-3 ATS, 17-13 O/U): Got in over Monmouth, San Diego State, St. Mary’s and other more qualified programs because, well, you’re guess is as good as ours. Tulsa ranked outside the Top 120 in scoring offense and scoring defense, doesn’t rebound particularly well, and failed to cover the spread in four of their final five outings. Not much to get excited about here.

12. South Dakota State Jackrabbits (26-7 SU, 15-14 ATS, 14-15 O/U): In the tournament for the third time in the last five years, South Dakota State won six straight to conclude the season, but failed to cover the spread in three of its last four. This is one of the dance’s better free-throw teams at 73.9 percent (37th in NCAA).

12. Yale Bulldogs (22-6 SU, 11-6-2 ATS, 11-8 O/U): They rebound well (40.4 rebounds/gm, 20th in NCAA) and play defense even better (63.1 pts/allowed, 12th in NCAA), but a first-round matchup with the Big 12’s Baylor spells disastrous. One big plus for the Bulldogs: That first-round matchup takes place in their backyard of Providence, Rhode Island.

12. Chattanooga Mocs (29-5 SU, 16-13 ATS, 14-13-2 O/U): The Mocs have tasted defeat just twice over their last 18 games, but have covered the spread only once in their last six outings. Aggressive on defense, Chattanooga ranked 31st in the country this season in steals (7.79 steals/gm).

12. Arkansas-Little Rock Trojans (29-4 SU, 19-10 ATS, 10-19 O/U): The Trojans rank 343rd in the country out of 351 teams in terms of possessions per game (65.8), so it’s no surprise to see the Under has hit in 19 of 29 lined games. Winners of 14 of its last 16 contests, don’t be surprised to see Chris Beard’s team give Purdue all it can handle in the Round of 64.

13. Hawaii Rainbow Warriors (27-5 SU, 14-12 ATS, 13-12-1 O/U): Their stellar 2015-2016 campaign deserves far better than a first-round matchup with NBA talent-rich California. Hawaii likes to bang inside and does a nice job distributing the rock (15.8 assists/gm, 38th in NCAA). Won 11 of 13 to close out the season, but covered in just two of their final seven matchups.

13. Stony Brook Seawolves (26-6 SU, 0-5-1 ATS, 4-2 O/U): Averaged 82 points per game during their three-game run through the America East Conference tournament, which featured a 15-point come-from-behind victory over Vermont in the title showdown. The Seawolves rank 61st in adjusted defense (98.4 points per 100 possessions) and will need every bit of that and more in the Round of 64 if they want any shot of knocking off Kentucky.

13. Iona Gaels (22-10 SU, 16-15 ATS, 15-16 O/U): Guard A.J. English (22.4 points, 6.2 assists) is an NBA talent who leads the NCAA’s 31st-ranked scoring offense (79.6 pts/gm). That, and the team’s ball distribution (16.8 assists/gm, 15th in NCAA), is the good. The bad is that Iona’s defense is giving up 73.7 points per game (227th in NCAA) thanks, in part, to a team that struggles on the glass (36.9 rebounds/gm, 129th in NCAA). Face No. 4 Iowa State in the first round, who was upset by UAB on Day 1 of the tournament last March.

13. UNC-Wilmington Seahawks (25-7 SU, 15-13 ATS, 16-12 O/U): A physical unit that won 16 of its final 18 matchups en route to a first-round tournament berth against the Blue Devils from Duke. This is a team that needs to take control of the paint and establish itself on the glass because of its struggles from deep (33.6 percent from 3-point range, 232nd in NCAA).

14. Fresno State Bulldogs (25-9 SU, 18-11 ATS, 17-12 O/U): Rattled off 13 victories over their final 15 games after falling 73-67 in overtime at San Diego State back on January 19. Senior Marvelle Harris is the player to watch (20.6 pts, 4.4 assists). Champions out of the not-so-daunting Mountain West Conference could be in for a rude awakening in the first round against Utah, as the game will be played in Denver at an elevation of 5,280 feet. Advantage: Utah.

14. Stephen F. Austin Lumberjacks (27-5 SU, 2-2 ATS, 3-1 O/U): One of the hottest teams in the nation entering March Madness, the Lumberjacks haven’t lost a game since December 29 at UAB (20 straight) thanks, in large part, to beastly forward Thomas Walkup (17.5 points, 4.5 assists, 59.8 field goal percentage). Head coach Brad Underwood has lost a grand total of just 13 games during his three seasons at SFA.

14. Green Bay Phoenix (23-12 SU, 20-10-2 ATS, 18-14 O/U): The Phoenix are making their first March Madness appearance since 1996 thanks to a 78-69 Horizon League Championship victory over Wright State. One of the country’s most efficient up-tempo teams, Green Bay ranked fifth in the nation in possessions per game this season (79.6) and sixth in scoring (84.2).

14. Buffalo Bulls (20-14 SU, 17-13-2 ATS, 18-13-1 O/U): New coach, same result. After losing former coach Bobby Hurley to Arizona State, the Bulls still found a way to win the MAC under new boss Nate Oats. Went 5-0 in neutral-site games this past season, but will have their hands full with Miami in the first round.

15. Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (24-9 SU, 17-14 ATS, 13-17-1 O/U): Started the season 8-5 before finding another gear to close with a 16-4 mark that included six straight wins and pointspread covers in five of their final six contests. Excellent from 3-point range (38.6 percent, 27th in NCAA), highly suspect from the free-throw line (61.7 percent, 347th in NCAA).

15. Weber State Wildcats (26-8 SU, 14-16 ATS, 13-17 O/U): Just one tournament win since 1999. The Wildcats won 10 of their final 11 games to reach March Madness, but failed to cover the spread in nine of their final 12 contests.

15. UNC-Asheville Bulldogs (22-11 SU, 6-0 ATS, 2-4 O/U): Boasts a far better defensive unit than their seeding indicates (98.2 points per 100 possessions, 60th in NCAA), excelling primarily at forcing turnovers (15.8 turnovers forced/gm, 8th in NCAA).

15. CSU Bakersfield Roadrunners (24-8 SU, 3-0 ATS, 1-2 O/U): Won 10 of their final 11 contests en route to a Western Athletic Conference championship crown thanks to a defense that permitted just 63.2 points (14th in NCAA) and forced 14.9 turnovers per game (21st in NCAA) this season. First March Madness appearance despite the fact that the Roadrunners have been in Division-I for less than a decade.

16. Hampton Pirates (21-10 SU, 3-2 ATS, 5-0 O/U): Enter the tournament having won eight of their last nine matchups. While it may not matter much in a first round matchup against top-seeded Virginia, note that the Pirates are one of the best rebounding teams in the nation (41.6 rebounds/gm, 7th in NCAA).

16. Austin Peay Governors (18-17 SU, 13-15-1 ATS, 19-9-1 O/U): Set for a first-round matchup with top-seeded Kansas after concluding the season with six straight wins and four consecutive covers. Decent offense, suspect defense, not long for this tournament.

16. Southern Jaguars (22-12 SU, 3-3 ATS, 2-4 O/U): 183rd in the country in scoring (72.9 pts/gm), 185th in rebounding (36.0 rebounds/gm), 322nd in assists (10.9 assists/gm) and 105th in scoring defense (69.0 pts allowed/gm). In five career trips to the NCAA tournament, Southern has never made it out of the first round.

16. Fairleigh Dickinson Knights (18-14 SU, 2-1 ATS, 2-1 O/U): Owned an overall record of 13-14 before a five-game winning streak to close out the season resulted in an automatic bid via the Northeast Conference championship. One of the worst defensive teams in the tournament (78.3 pts allowed/gm, 313th in NCAA), the Knights also struggle with turnovers (13.0 turnovers/gm, 208th in NCAA).

16. Florida Gulf Coast Eagles (20-13 SU, 3-3-1 ATS, 3-4 O/U): “Dunk City” turned a four-game losing streak in late January into a nine-game stretch to close out the season that featured seven victories and an Atlantic Sun championship. This is a solid rebounding program (40.2 rebounds/gm, 22nd in NCAA) that is an even bigger long shot than the FGCU squad that stole America’s hearts three years ago.

16. Holy Cross Crusaders (14-19 SU, 5-0 ATS, 2-3 O/U): Bill Carmody’s program went winless in league play, won just two road games all season (at Marist, at Hartford) and enters March Madness as the only sub-.500 participant. Yet, somehow, the Crusaders won four straight on the road during the Patriot League tournament and earned an automatic bid and a March 16th play-in game against Southern.