Dave Cokin
Bonus Play Thursday
The Wednesday Bonus Play on Fordham got there as the Rams sprinted to a huge early lead. Things got very dicey late but Fordham hit its free throws and cashed a ticket. Here’s a Friday football play I like.
117 TOLEDO at 118 WESTERN MICHIGAN 5:00 PM
Take: TOLEDO +9
Monster game for Western Michigan, as if the Broncos win this and then also take the MAC title game, they ought to get the Cotton Bowl. That also means they have all the pressure, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they come out a little tight. WMU is legit, I’ve got them in my Top 25, and that’s some tall timber for a MAC team.
But Toledo isn’t far behind, and the Rockets fit a nice late season stat angle. Teams that won the numbers in all of their games, or at least all but one, do quite well as dogs when we get to this point of the season. Stats are very reliable by this time and I put quite a bit of faith in them. Toledo’s only negative stat game all season was vs. Northern Illinois, and that was by just a few yards.
The Rockets only have two losses and both were by very narrow margins, at BYU by a deuce and the five-point loss to Ohio. I agree Western Michigan is the better team, but it’s not by this much in terms of the points and I actually see the situation favoring Toledo. Rockets plus the points.
Here’s the weekly rundown of where the sharp money is showing in college football. Info is garnered from a variety of sources in Nevada as well as from various stateside underground shops as well as offshore stores.
113 LSU has gotten most of the sharp money for the holiday matchup with Texas A&M.
124 Missouri is attaracting some wise guy play as the Tigers play host to Arkansas.
126 Tulsa has been getting some serious play from the sharps as big chalk against Cincinnati.
142 Arizona is catching a bit of interest from pros in the rivalry game against Arizona State.
147 Tulane has gotten some smart money support on the road at Connecticut.
158 Indiana is a big favorite, but the Hoosiers have gotten significant sharp action against Purdue.
180 UNLV is getting the bulk of the smart dollars in the rivalry clash with Nevada.
210 UL Lafayette is commanding attention from the pros as home dogs vs. Arkansas State.
224 Massachusetts is the smart money preference as the Minutemen make the very long trip to Hawaii.
That’s this week’s rundown. Happy Thanksgiving!
Bonus Play Thursday
The Wednesday Bonus Play on Fordham got there as the Rams sprinted to a huge early lead. Things got very dicey late but Fordham hit its free throws and cashed a ticket. Here’s a Friday football play I like.
117 TOLEDO at 118 WESTERN MICHIGAN 5:00 PM
Take: TOLEDO +9
Monster game for Western Michigan, as if the Broncos win this and then also take the MAC title game, they ought to get the Cotton Bowl. That also means they have all the pressure, and I wouldn’t be shocked if they come out a little tight. WMU is legit, I’ve got them in my Top 25, and that’s some tall timber for a MAC team.
But Toledo isn’t far behind, and the Rockets fit a nice late season stat angle. Teams that won the numbers in all of their games, or at least all but one, do quite well as dogs when we get to this point of the season. Stats are very reliable by this time and I put quite a bit of faith in them. Toledo’s only negative stat game all season was vs. Northern Illinois, and that was by just a few yards.
The Rockets only have two losses and both were by very narrow margins, at BYU by a deuce and the five-point loss to Ohio. I agree Western Michigan is the better team, but it’s not by this much in terms of the points and I actually see the situation favoring Toledo. Rockets plus the points.
Here’s the weekly rundown of where the sharp money is showing in college football. Info is garnered from a variety of sources in Nevada as well as from various stateside underground shops as well as offshore stores.
113 LSU has gotten most of the sharp money for the holiday matchup with Texas A&M.
124 Missouri is attaracting some wise guy play as the Tigers play host to Arkansas.
126 Tulsa has been getting some serious play from the sharps as big chalk against Cincinnati.
142 Arizona is catching a bit of interest from pros in the rivalry game against Arizona State.
147 Tulane has gotten some smart money support on the road at Connecticut.
158 Indiana is a big favorite, but the Hoosiers have gotten significant sharp action against Purdue.
180 UNLV is getting the bulk of the smart dollars in the rivalry clash with Nevada.
210 UL Lafayette is commanding attention from the pros as home dogs vs. Arkansas State.
224 Massachusetts is the smart money preference as the Minutemen make the very long trip to Hawaii.
That’s this week’s rundown. Happy Thanksgiving!
Jim Feist
Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Thursday, November 24, 2016
Your free pick for Thursday, November 24, 2016 comes in college football as LSU and Texas A&M battle. LSU's offense has been jumpstarted since the coaching change, opening things up more. The over is 6-1-1 in the Tigers last 8 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Texas A&M QB Jake Hubenak threw for 248 yards and a touchdown against UTSA. The Over is 4-1 in Aggies last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Play LSU/Texas A&M Over the total.
Jim Feist's Comp Pick, Thursday, November 24, 2016
Your free pick for Thursday, November 24, 2016 comes in college football as LSU and Texas A&M battle. LSU's offense has been jumpstarted since the coaching change, opening things up more. The over is 6-1-1 in the Tigers last 8 games after allowing less than 170 yards passing in their previous game. Texas A&M QB Jake Hubenak threw for 248 yards and a touchdown against UTSA. The Over is 4-1 in Aggies last 5 home games vs. a team with a winning road record.
Play LSU/Texas A&M Over the total.
Jack Jones
Steelers vs Colts
Jack's Free Pick Thursday: Pittsburgh Steelers -7.5
These are two teams with identical 5-5 records this season. One would think you would want to take the home underdog catching 7.5 points in that situation, but I’m not one of them. Even before it was announced Andrew Luck wasn’t going to play, it was clear to me that the Steelers were by far the superior team despite having the same record.
The Steelers have actually outgained each of their last four opponents despite losing three of those contests. And they didn’t have a healthy Ben Roethlisberger for two of them. Roethlisberger returned against the Cowboys and they should have won that game had they not failed on four two-point conversions. But the Steelers got back on track with a 24-9 win at Cleveland last week in which they outgained the Browns by 104 yards. They have now outgained seven of their ten opponents this season.
The Colts are one of the worst teams in the NFL in my opinion, and the numbers show it. They have actually been outgained in seven of their ten games this season. They rank 30th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by 41.0 yards per game. Only the Browns and 49ers have been worse in that department.
Now without Luck they have almost no chance of keeping this game competitive. Scott Tolzien will get the start after serving as Aaron Rodgers’ backup in Green Bay. He has not fared well in limited playing time, throwing one touchdown and five interceptions in his brief career. He’s going to be asked to go score for score with the Steelers, and I don’t think he’s capable of it.
The Steelers will hang a big number on the Colts here. Indianapolis gives up 27.3 points per game while ranking 30th in the NFL in total defense at 397.6 yards per game. Just last year the Steelers faced the Colts without Luck. They won that game 45-10 as 10-point home favorites while outgaining the Colts 522 to 240, or by 282 total yards.
Plays on road teams (PITTSBURGH) – after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 52-20 (72.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet the Steelers Thursday.
Steelers vs Colts
Jack's Free Pick Thursday: Pittsburgh Steelers -7.5
These are two teams with identical 5-5 records this season. One would think you would want to take the home underdog catching 7.5 points in that situation, but I’m not one of them. Even before it was announced Andrew Luck wasn’t going to play, it was clear to me that the Steelers were by far the superior team despite having the same record.
The Steelers have actually outgained each of their last four opponents despite losing three of those contests. And they didn’t have a healthy Ben Roethlisberger for two of them. Roethlisberger returned against the Cowboys and they should have won that game had they not failed on four two-point conversions. But the Steelers got back on track with a 24-9 win at Cleveland last week in which they outgained the Browns by 104 yards. They have now outgained seven of their ten opponents this season.
The Colts are one of the worst teams in the NFL in my opinion, and the numbers show it. They have actually been outgained in seven of their ten games this season. They rank 30th in the NFL in yardage differential, getting outgained by 41.0 yards per game. Only the Browns and 49ers have been worse in that department.
Now without Luck they have almost no chance of keeping this game competitive. Scott Tolzien will get the start after serving as Aaron Rodgers’ backup in Green Bay. He has not fared well in limited playing time, throwing one touchdown and five interceptions in his brief career. He’s going to be asked to go score for score with the Steelers, and I don’t think he’s capable of it.
The Steelers will hang a big number on the Colts here. Indianapolis gives up 27.3 points per game while ranking 30th in the NFL in total defense at 397.6 yards per game. Just last year the Steelers faced the Colts without Luck. They won that game 45-10 as 10-point home favorites while outgaining the Colts 522 to 240, or by 282 total yards.
Plays on road teams (PITTSBURGH) – after being beaten by the spread by 35 or more points total in their last five games, in weeks 10 through 13 are 52-20 (72.2%) ATS over the last 10 seasons. Bet the Steelers Thursday.
Jimmy Boyd
Steelers vs Colts
Free Pick on Steelers -
This is a big number to lay on the road in a prime time game, but I don’t know how you take the Colts in this one. Indianapolis will be without starting quarterback Andrew Luck. That means the Colts are going to have to turn to backup Scott Tolzien. A former backup in Green Bay that hasn’t seen meaningful snaps in 3 years. In the limited action he’s played, he’s thrown just 1 touchdown to 5 interceptions on 90 attempts.
I just don’t think the books can set this line high enough. The only reason Indy is sitting at 5-5 is because of the play of Luck. He’s essentially put this team on his shoulders this season. In fact, I don’t think people realize just how much he means to this team. He’s completed 63% of his attempts with 19 TD’s to just 8 INT’s despite being under constant pressure. Tolzien simply doesn't know what he's in store for. Not only is he going to take some big hits, he's likely going to make some costly mistakes that lead to turnovers and quick scores for the Steelers.
I don’t know that the Colts would even have a win this season if Luck wasn’t at quarterback. They would be right there with the Browns as one of the worst teams in the league. They might even be worse. Keep in mind Pittsburgh was only a 8-point favorite last week at Cleveland. If you liked the Steelers against the Browns, no reason not to like them here (I had Pittsburgh as a 4* play against Cleveland).
Let’s not forget this is a Colts offense that can’t run the football and are 30th in the league defensively. It’s not like Indy can play it safe with Tolzien. He’s going to be forced to throw a lot and I just don’t think he’s capable of putting together the type of performance needed to keep this game close.
I think it’s also important to note this isn’t a game Pittsburgh can afford to lose. The Steelers are tied with Baltimore on top the AFC North at 5-5. They likely need to win the division to make the playoffs. They are going to come in looking to put away the Colts early and not give this team any hope. Take Pittsburgh!
Steelers vs Colts
Free Pick on Steelers -
This is a big number to lay on the road in a prime time game, but I don’t know how you take the Colts in this one. Indianapolis will be without starting quarterback Andrew Luck. That means the Colts are going to have to turn to backup Scott Tolzien. A former backup in Green Bay that hasn’t seen meaningful snaps in 3 years. In the limited action he’s played, he’s thrown just 1 touchdown to 5 interceptions on 90 attempts.
I just don’t think the books can set this line high enough. The only reason Indy is sitting at 5-5 is because of the play of Luck. He’s essentially put this team on his shoulders this season. In fact, I don’t think people realize just how much he means to this team. He’s completed 63% of his attempts with 19 TD’s to just 8 INT’s despite being under constant pressure. Tolzien simply doesn't know what he's in store for. Not only is he going to take some big hits, he's likely going to make some costly mistakes that lead to turnovers and quick scores for the Steelers.
I don’t know that the Colts would even have a win this season if Luck wasn’t at quarterback. They would be right there with the Browns as one of the worst teams in the league. They might even be worse. Keep in mind Pittsburgh was only a 8-point favorite last week at Cleveland. If you liked the Steelers against the Browns, no reason not to like them here (I had Pittsburgh as a 4* play against Cleveland).
Let’s not forget this is a Colts offense that can’t run the football and are 30th in the league defensively. It’s not like Indy can play it safe with Tolzien. He’s going to be forced to throw a lot and I just don’t think he’s capable of putting together the type of performance needed to keep this game close.
I think it’s also important to note this isn’t a game Pittsburgh can afford to lose. The Steelers are tied with Baltimore on top the AFC North at 5-5. They likely need to win the division to make the playoffs. They are going to come in looking to put away the Colts early and not give this team any hope. Take Pittsburgh!
Teddy Covers
LSU vs Texas A&M
Bonus Play LSU (#113)
Texas A&M has two wins in the last six weeks. They beat New Mexico State. And they beat Texas- San Antonio; two games where they were favored by -43.5 and -26.5 points. It’s surely worth noting that they didn’t cover either pointspread – the Aggies last pointspread cover came all the way back in September in a ‘closer than the final score would indicate’ win over Arkansas.
The Aggies offense has been broken since starting QB Trevor Knight got hurt against Mississippi State earlier this month. Backup QB Jake Hubenak is a statue in the pocket and he doesn’t have a huge arm. That’s very bad news against the powerful LSU pass rush; a stop unit that has held every single opponent they’ve faced this year to 21 points or less. All four of LSU’s losses this season have come despite the defense largely controlling the flow.
The Aggies defense, like LSU’s D, has a great pass rush with Myles Garrett a potential #1 overall NFL draft choice next spring. But the Aggies stop unit has one major Achilles heel, likely to doom them in this matchup – an inability to shut down power rushing attacks.
The results don’t lie. A&M gave up 278 on the ground to Alabama and 365 on the ground against Mississippi State. Tennessee and Auburn both gained more than 200 yards on the ground against this stop unit as well. There’s a world of difference between the Florida front seven that LSU struggled to run the ball against last week and the A&M front seven that they’ll face this week!
The Tigers dominated Florida for extended stretches last Saturday. But with five ‘first and goal’ opportunities, LSU garnered only ten points. The loss wasn’t a ‘season killer’ for a squad that had already suffered three previous defeats. Their defense is primed to dominate a backup quarterback once again. And this week, we can expect the two headed RB duo of Leonard Fournette and Derrius Guice to rip off yardage in chunks.
The Aggies have allowed at least 29 points in each of their last for SEC games. If LSU approaches or exceeds that number – and I expect that they will – the Aggies will be hard pressed to stay competitive against the Tigers elite stop unit. Take LSU.
LSU vs Texas A&M
Bonus Play LSU (#113)
Texas A&M has two wins in the last six weeks. They beat New Mexico State. And they beat Texas- San Antonio; two games where they were favored by -43.5 and -26.5 points. It’s surely worth noting that they didn’t cover either pointspread – the Aggies last pointspread cover came all the way back in September in a ‘closer than the final score would indicate’ win over Arkansas.
The Aggies offense has been broken since starting QB Trevor Knight got hurt against Mississippi State earlier this month. Backup QB Jake Hubenak is a statue in the pocket and he doesn’t have a huge arm. That’s very bad news against the powerful LSU pass rush; a stop unit that has held every single opponent they’ve faced this year to 21 points or less. All four of LSU’s losses this season have come despite the defense largely controlling the flow.
The Aggies defense, like LSU’s D, has a great pass rush with Myles Garrett a potential #1 overall NFL draft choice next spring. But the Aggies stop unit has one major Achilles heel, likely to doom them in this matchup – an inability to shut down power rushing attacks.
The results don’t lie. A&M gave up 278 on the ground to Alabama and 365 on the ground against Mississippi State. Tennessee and Auburn both gained more than 200 yards on the ground against this stop unit as well. There’s a world of difference between the Florida front seven that LSU struggled to run the ball against last week and the A&M front seven that they’ll face this week!
The Tigers dominated Florida for extended stretches last Saturday. But with five ‘first and goal’ opportunities, LSU garnered only ten points. The loss wasn’t a ‘season killer’ for a squad that had already suffered three previous defeats. Their defense is primed to dominate a backup quarterback once again. And this week, we can expect the two headed RB duo of Leonard Fournette and Derrius Guice to rip off yardage in chunks.
The Aggies have allowed at least 29 points in each of their last for SEC games. If LSU approaches or exceeds that number – and I expect that they will – the Aggies will be hard pressed to stay competitive against the Tigers elite stop unit. Take LSU.
Sean Murphy
Redskins vs Cowboys
Thursday 10* NFL Bonus Play Washington plus the points over Dallas
I’ll grab the points with the Redskins on Thursday in Dallas.
We won with Washington on Sunday night in its rout of the Packers. While this will be a much tougher challenge for the ‘Skins, I believe they’ll be up to the task.
Thanks to a poor start to the season, I still believe Washington is an underrated commodity. The fact is, the ‘Skins have gone 6-1-1 over their last eight contests. But it’s Dallas getting all the press in the NFC East right now thanks to its nine-game winning streak. That works in our favor here as we’re being given a generous pointspread.
The Cowboys passed another test on Sunday, avoiding a letdown off a big win in Pittsburgh by ultimately pulling away for a 10-point win and cover against the Ravens. The Ravens actually gave Dallas more of a game than most were expecting, staying close the majority of the way. I believe the Redskins are better-suited to stage an upset, however.
Dallas took the first meeting in this series this season by a 27-23 score in Washington back in Week 2. Since then, we’ve seen the ‘Skins come together as a team and they’re in better position to give the ‘Boys a run on Thanksgiving Day. Take Washington (10*).
Redskins vs Cowboys
Thursday 10* NFL Bonus Play Washington plus the points over Dallas
I’ll grab the points with the Redskins on Thursday in Dallas.
We won with Washington on Sunday night in its rout of the Packers. While this will be a much tougher challenge for the ‘Skins, I believe they’ll be up to the task.
Thanks to a poor start to the season, I still believe Washington is an underrated commodity. The fact is, the ‘Skins have gone 6-1-1 over their last eight contests. But it’s Dallas getting all the press in the NFC East right now thanks to its nine-game winning streak. That works in our favor here as we’re being given a generous pointspread.
The Cowboys passed another test on Sunday, avoiding a letdown off a big win in Pittsburgh by ultimately pulling away for a 10-point win and cover against the Ravens. The Ravens actually gave Dallas more of a game than most were expecting, staying close the majority of the way. I believe the Redskins are better-suited to stage an upset, however.
Dallas took the first meeting in this series this season by a 27-23 score in Washington back in Week 2. Since then, we’ve seen the ‘Skins come together as a team and they’re in better position to give the ‘Boys a run on Thanksgiving Day. Take Washington (10*).
