Thursday 11/24/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

LSU at Texas A&M
By Joe Nelson

Matchup: LSU Tigers at Texas A&M Aggies
Venue: Kyle Field in College Station, Texas
Time/TV: Thursday, Nov. 24, 7:30 PM ET - ESPN
Line: LSU -6, Over/Under 48½
Last Meeting: 2015, at LSU (-5½) 19, Texas A&M 7

At home with rumors surrounding the future of Les Miles and LSU riding a three-game losing streak, the Tigers delivered a 19-7 win over Texas A&M to close the regular season last November. Miles was carried off the field and athletic director Joe Alleva announced that Miles would stay at LSU shortly after the game. LSU went on to dominate the Texas Bowl and opened the 2016 season considered a serious SEC and national contender.

The Tigers struggled early in the season on offense, dropping a marquee opening matchup with Wisconsin and then managing just 13 points in a loss at Auburn that prompted a coaching change mid-season.

Former Ole Miss and USC head coach Ed Orgeron stepped in and led the Tigers to three straight wins but with losses in two of the last three games and few signs of progress for the offense against top competition, this looks like a program headed for more changes in the coming months.

LSU will be in a bowl game regardless of the Thanksgiving night result but at 6-4 and with a middle-of-the-pack SEC finish the direction of the program is unclear. With potential openings at a couple of other big schools the Tigers may not be able to pull in their top candidate for head coach if Orgeron is not retained and it will be interesting to see what the staff looks like for a minor bowl slot as the veteran head coach may not want to ride out the season if he is passed over as he went through a similar situation with USC in 2013.

Despite having early season Heisman candidate Leonard Fournette as well as impressive sophomore Derrius Guice in the backfield LSU has managed just 28 points per game though both look likely to clear 1,000 rushing yards this season.

Quarterback play has been an issue as junior Brandon Harris was benched early in the season and Purdue-transfer Danny Etling has marginal numbers with just seven touchdowns and a 58 percent completion rate.

The defense has elite numbers allowing just over 14 points per game this season and the four losses for LSU came while allowing 16, 18, 10, and 16 points as the defense led by Dave Aranda in his first season in Baton Rouge has done the job.

Aranda’s future is an interesting case as well as he was a prized hire after great success at Wisconsin and he is just 40-years-old. This week he’ll be working without linebacker Kendell Beckwith who is a Butkus Award finalist.

An injury can be blamed for yet another November slide for Texas A&M after the Aggies started the season 6-0 and still were ranked in the College Football Playoff top four at 7-1 with the lone loss to Alabama. Ultimately early season wins over UCLA, Auburn, Arkansas, and Tennessee proved to be less meaningful than they looked at the time but losing quarterback Trevor Knight early in the Mississippi State game changed the potential of the offense dramatically.

Back-up Joe Hubenak has some experience and he has actually posted better numbers than Knight had in the passing game but Knight rushed for nearly 600 yards on 6.6 yards per carry and his mobility was the key to the offense for the Aggies.

Texas A&M scored 28 points vs. Mississippi State and Mississippi but against those defenses bigger production was needed and last week against Texas San Antonio the limitations of the offense were on display with just 23 points and just over 400 yards in a matchup the Aggies should have dominated. Less success on offense has impacted the defense as well as the Aggies will wrap up another good but not great season that once again teased with a hot start to the season.

At 8-3, a win over LSU for the first time since the Aggies joined the SEC would be a nice stamp on a still solid season after topping out at eight wins the past two seasons. Texas A&M will still get a reasonably attractive bowl bid in either scenario and this might be a good opportunity given the uncertainty for LSU while getting the short week holiday game at home.

Those disappointed in another November collapse for the Aggies know that should know that Kevin Sumlin’s contract is fully guaranteed for the next three seasons. Sumlin does have a buyout on his end but while he was a rising star in the coaching ranks a few years ago the relative mediocrity in recent seasons coupled with the high profile transfers out of the program leave him as much less of a candidate to be poached from another program.

Sumlin has gone 3-3 or worse in the second halves of now each of the past four seasons but he has won at least eight games in all five seasons in College Station after taking over a program that hit that mark once in the five years prior to his arrival.

In last season’s game Texas A&M led 7-6 at the half but Guice as a freshman had the big play of the game with a 50-yard touchdown run halfway through the third quarter while also turning in a 75-yard kickoff return. LSU had a solid production edge but missed three field goals while the Aggies also missed a field goal kick and had three turnovers. Harris completed only a third of his passes while Texas A&M completed less than 50 percent of its passes as neither offense had a strong showing.

Historical Trends:

-- Before becoming division rivals these teams met in the Cotton Bowl after the 2010 season and counting that game LSU is on a 5-0 S/U and ATS run in this matchup.

-- Both wins in College Station were tight with a 24-19 win in 2012 and a 23-17 win in 2014, slipping just past the road favorite spread in both instances.

-- Since 2005 when Miles took over LSU is 19-14-1 ATS as a road favorite including going 12-5-1 with a road favorite spread of less than 10.

-- Texas A&M is notorious for its home field edge but the recent numbers don’t support Kyle Field as being that tough of a venue for visitors.

-- Under Sumlin,Texas A&M has 10 S/U home losses while going 13-19 ATS since he took over in 2012.

-- The past three seasons Texas A&M is 5-13 ATS at home and under Sumlin the Aggies are just 1-4 ATS as a home underdog with no outright upsets.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: LSU Tigers (6-4) at Texas A&M Aggies (8-3)

Date: November 24, 2016 7:30 PM EDT

No title, but plenty of other matters will be on the line when No. 22 Texas A&M hosts No. 25 LSU to top off Thanksgiving night - including the status of the two coaches.

Kickoff at Kyle Field in College Station is 7:30 p.m. ET Thursday with ESPN handling the telecast.

The visiting Tigers (6-4, 4-3 SEC) will be playing to enhance the chances of interim coach Ed Orgeron earning permanent status with the program. LSU's regular season was cut short by a game because of the cancellation of a non-conference contest with South Alabama to accommodate a rescheduled meeting with Florida.

Though always considered a long-shot to be named full-time, Orgeron's chances began to improve when the team responded well after he took over for Les Miles, who was fired after a 2-2 start. The Tigers rolled to three easy victories, were in a scoreless tie with No. 1 Alabama after three quarters and lost just 10-0, then bounced back a week later to rout Arkansas 38-10.

But the mistake-laden 16-10 loss to a Florida team that was missing six injured starters derailed whatever momentum Orgeron had gained in his quest to keep the job.

"It's been fantastic," said Orgeron, a native of Larose, La., who is 4-2 in his interim stint. "What a ride. The head coach at LSU being from Louisiana, the way the people have reacted, the way the players reacted. We've played very well in most games. It's been fun. It's been fun around to be the staff and fun to see our players grow.

"It's just been an exciting challenge. I've grown as a head coach like I try to grow every day."

A decision on the new coach likely will come in a matter of days after this game.

A&M coach Kevin Sumlin's job may not be in immediate jeopardy, but a loss to the Tigers could start up the grumbling.

The Aggies (8-3, 4-3 SEC) are seeking a ninth win that would give them a shot at 10 victories with a bowl win. They haven't been in double digits in wins since going 11-2 in Sumlin's first season in 2012, which also is the last year they finished over .500 in SEC play.

If the Aggies lose, however, it would be a sixth straight loss to the Tigers, who have won all four meetings since the Aggies joined the SEC, and continue what has been a November slump for Sumlin's teams. The Aggies are 11-8 for the month under Sumlin overall but only 7-8 over the last four seasons.

Although the Aggies have consistently stumbled on the brink of competing for the SEC West title, Sumlin's argument is that they have at least made themselves relevant in the discussion.

Texas A&M went 26-25 in its last four seasons in the Big 12. Since joining the SEC, the Aggies are 44-19 under Sumlin.

"For us to be where we want to be, we do need to take that next step and play for championships and be involved in that conversation consistently," Sumlin said. "Where we are right now is a team that has made some strides since coming into this league."

Both LSU and A&M have injury issues.

Linebacker Kendall Beckwith, the Tigers' leading tackler with 91 stops, is out with a knee injury, and running back Leonard Fournette is still hobbled by an ankle problem.

Derrius Guice, who is the team's leading rusher with 964 yard but had a couple of key mistakes late against Florida -- fumbling inside the Gators' 10-yard line in the second quarter and running the wrong way on the final play of the game at Florida's 1-yard line, would replace Fournette. Donnie Alexander (36 tackles and an interception) likely will start for Beckwith.

For the Aggies. junior Jake Hubenak, who took over for the injured Trevor Knight, injured his shoulder in the loss to Ole Miss but quarterbacked the win over Texas-San Antonio.

"He's day-to-day working hard every day to get his shoulder back in its usual shape," offensive coordinator Noel Mazzone said. "I was very impressed with how he gritted it out on Saturday."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCAAF

Thursday’s game

LSU was held to 14 or less points (9.3 pts/game) in its four losses; they scored 23+ points in their six wins, 34+ in 5 of the 6 wins. Texas A&M allowed 29+ points in last four SEC games; they did hold UTSA/New Mexico St to 10 points each lately, but those are non-conference stiffs they scheduled. Aggies lost last three SEC games, are 0-5 vs spread in last five games overall. LSU won its last five games against Aggies (5-0 vs spread) holding A&M to 11.3 pts/game last three years- three of those five wins were by 12+ points. Tigers won 23-17/24-19 in last two visits here. SEC home underdogs are 13-7 against spread this season.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NCCAF Tech Trends - Week 13
By Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Nov. 24

LSU at TEXAS A&M... LSU has won and covered all four vs. A&M since Ags entered SEC in 2012. Orgeron 4-2 SU and vs. line with Tigers. Ags 0-6-1 vs. line last seven TY.

LSU, based on team and series trends.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL notebook: Concussion sidelines Luck against Steelers
By The Sports Xchange

The Indianapolis officially ruled out quarterback Andrew Luck for Thursday's night game against the Pittsburgh Steelers because of a concussion.
Luck showed symptoms of a concussion on Monday after taking a sack in the fourth quarter of Sunday's game against the Tennessee Titans when his head bounced off the turf. He did not practice all week as the Colts prepared for the Thanksgiving game.
Luck must clear the NFL's concussion protocol before he is allowed to play.
After the Steelers game, the Colts will travel to play the New York Jets on Dec. 5 in a "Monday Night Football" game. Luck will miss his 10th game since Week 4 of last season.
Backup Scott Tolzien will start in Luck's place against the Steelers. Tolzien last started in 2013, when he was with the Green Bay Packers.
Tolzien is 56-of-91 passing for 721 yards, a touchdown and five interceptions in six career appearances.

--The Indianapolis Colts re-signed free agent cornerback Darryl Morris and placed cornerback Frankie Williams on the reserve/non-football injury list.
Morris, 26, can fill a need in a depleted secondary for Thursday night's game against the Pittsburgh Steelers. Cornerback Vontae Davis has been dealing with an ankle injury and safety Clayton Geathers is in the concussion protocol.
The 5-foot-10, 188-pound Morris played in the first six games (one start) for the Colts this season and compiled 15 tackles, one pass defensed and one special teams stop before being waived on Oct. 19. He was originally signed by Indianapolis as a free agent on Sept. 5.

--Dallas Cowboys wide receiver Dez Bryant and Washington Redskins wideout DeSean Jackson were listed as questionable but both are expected to play in the Thanksgiving Day game.
Bryant was listed as a full participant in practice all three days this week but still got the questionable tag on Wednesday's injury report due to a back issue.
Jackson returned to action last Sunday night against the Green Bay Packers after missing a game with a shoulder injury. Jackson was limited in practice Monday and Tuesday but was a full participant on Wednesday.

--New England Patriots tight end Rob Gronkowski is expected to miss his second consecutive game Sunday against the New York Jets as he continues to recover from a chest injury.
Gronkowski suffered the injury in a 31-24 loss to the Seattle Seahawks on "Sunday Night Football" on Nov. 13. He took a hard hit from Seahawks safety Earl Thomas and temporarily had to leave the game in the first half.
Gronkowski's absence leaves Martellus Bennett and Matt Lengel as the two available tight ends on the roster. Bennett made one reception for 14 yards last Sunday in the Patriots' 30-17 win against the San Francisco 49ers, and caught 39 passes for 518 yards and four touchdowns in 10 games this season.

--The Cleveland Browns designated quarterback Robert Griffin III to return from injured reserve and he then practiced for the first time since breaking the coracoid bone in his left shoulder during the season opener.
Griffin was placed on injured reserve with the shoulder issue on Sept. 12, a day after a season-opening 29-10 loss to the Philadelphia Eagles. RG3 completed 12 of 26 passes for 190 yards with one interception and also rushed for 37 yards in the game.
Griffin was the second quarterback throwing in drills open to the media on Wednesday, according to ESPN. Josh McCown took the first reps, with Griffin up second.

--The Detroit Lions promoted rookie quarterback Jake Rudock to the active roster.
Rudock was drafted by the Lions in the sixth round last season out of the University of Michigan. He played one season for the Wolverines in 2015 after beginning his college career at Iowa, where he was a two-year starter.
In the preseason, Rudock appeared in all four games for the Lions and finished 30-of-51 passing for 333 yards and four touchdowns with a passer rating of 96.3.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL injury report for Thanksgiving games

MINNESOTA VIKINGS AT DETROIT LIONS

--Out: DT Sharrif Floyd (knee), CB Marcus Sherels (rib, ankle)
--Doubtful: CB Terence Newman (neck)
--Questionable: WR Stefon Diggs (knee), LB Eric Kendricks (hip), CB Captain Munnerlyn (ankle), S Harrison Smith (ankle)

DETROIT LIONS
--Questionable: DE Ezekiel Ansah (ankle), S Don Carey (hamstring), C Graham Glasgow (ankle), LB DeAndre Levy (knee), RB Theo Riddick (ankle), DT Khyri Thornton (foot)


WASHINGTON REDSKINS at DALLAS COWBOYS

WASHINGTON REDSKINS
--Out: LS Nick Sundberg (back)
--Questionable: DE Chris Baker (hamstring), WR DeSean Jackson (shoulder), T Ty Nsekhe (ankle)

DALLAS COWBOYS
--Out: S Barry Church (forearm), CB Morris Claiborne (groin)
--Questionable: WR Dez Bryant (back), T Chaz Green (foot, back), DE Demarcus Lawrence (back), DT Terrell McClain (thigh), T Tyron Smith (back, hip)


PITTSBURGH STEELERS at INDIANAPOLIS COLTS

PITTSBURGH STEELERS
--Out: TE Xavier Grimble (quadricep), WR Darrius Heyward-Bey (foot), S Shamarko Thomas (groin), RB DeAngelo Williams (knee)
--Questionable: S Jordan Dangerfield (groin)

INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
--Out: S Clayton Geathers (concussion), QB Andrew Luck (concussion)
--Questionable: CB Vontae Davis (ankle), WR Donte Moncrief (hamstring).

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Opening Line Report - Week 12
By Marcus DiNitto

If you’ve been blindly betting the Cowboys (9-0-1 ATS) and the Patriots (8-2 ATS), and blindly fading the Browns (2-9 ATS) and the 49ers (2-8 ATS) this NFL season, you’ve cashed tickets at a stout 34-6-1 clip.

“What’s been hurting us the most is the Cowboys and Patriots covering every week and the Browns and the Niners failing to cover,” said Jason Simbal, vice president of risk at CG Technology.

“Free money (for bettors). Just bet against the Niners and the Browns,” Nick Bogdanovich, director of trading at William Hill U.S., said of the tough day for his book on Sunday.

Ed Salmons, oddsmaker at the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, said public action on the Cowboys has picked up in recent weeks. “They bet against them at Green Bay (in Week 6), but since that game they’ve been betting them religiously,” he said of the gamblers at his shop.

The Cowboys, who have covered every spread since pushing against the Giants in Week 1, take their traditional featured spot on Thanksgiving Day next week, opening as solid home favorites against the Redskins.

Here’s a look at the opening betting lines for the entire Week 12 slate, with more insight from Bogdanovich, Simbal and Salmons. Numbers listed are the Las Vegas consensus as of about 11 p.m. ET on Sunday night, with early moves and differences among books noted as well.

Thursday, Nov. 24

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-2.5)

Some shops were dealing Detroit -3 (even) for the early Thanksgiving Day contest. The Lions have won five of their last six but have trailed in the fourth quarter in every game this season. While that’s not confidence-inspiring, it’s fair to say the Vikings were fortunate in their 30-24 home win over Arizona on Sunday that snapped a four-game losing streak.

Just a few weeks ago, the Lions won at Minnesota as 4.5-point dogs, 22-16 in overtime. But Minnesota owns a 3-7-1 ATS record over Detroit in their last 11 meetings.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-7/-120)

Perhaps under the radar thanks the Cowboys’ nine-game winning streak, the Redskins, since losing their first two games of the season, are 6-1-1 SU and 7-1 ATS, including Sunday night’s 42-24 win as 3-point home favorites against the Packers.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-3 even) at Indianapolis Colts

While most shops opened Pitt -3 (even), CG Technology hung -3 (flat) and moved to -3 (-105) after booking some sharp action on the home dog.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Week 12 opening line report: Thanksgiving week brings critical matchups
By PATRICK EVERSON

One thing NFL fans and bettors can be thankful for this week: three games on Thanksgiving Day, back-to-back-to-back. Happy Thanksgiving, indeed! We check in with Peter Childs, risk management supervisor, on a few of the Week 12 opening lines, including on a pair of key Turkey Day contests.

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-7)

Dallas is hotter than a two-dollar pistol and gets to play at home on a short week. The Cowboys (9-1 SU and ATS) haven’t lost outright nor against the number since Week 1, and on Sunday, they topped the Baltimore Ravens 27-17 as a 7-point home favorite.

Washington appears to be getting its act together, putting itself in the wild-card picture in the process. On Sunday night, the Redskins (6-3-1 SU, 7-3 ATS) rolled past reeling Green Bay 42-24 as a 3-point home chalk.

“Both the ‘Skins and Cowboys are coming off very nice efforts, more so the Skins, having won by 18 points in front of a national TV audience on Sunday night,” Childs said. “But this is a real tough spot for Washington, having played Sunday night and now having to travel on a very short week. The Cowboys will once again be the side of the public, they have been all year, and all they do is cash tickets for their backers.”

Since the ‘Skins were in the late game, Childs said he waited until Monday to post the line but eventually settled on the Cowboys as a full touchdown favorite at home.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-3)

There’s a game in the NFC North with first-place on the line, and it doesn’t involve the Green Bay Packers. Minnesota and Detroit are tied at 6-4 SU and ATS, though Detroit has an edge since it beat Minnesota 22-16 in overtime as a 4.5-point underdog earlier this month.

In fact, the Lions are 5-1 SU and ATS in their last six games, after fending off Jacksonville 26-19 Sunday laying 5.5 points at home. The Vikings, meanwhile, finally got back on track after a four-game SU and ATS slide, besting Arizona 30-24 giving 2 points at home.

“Monster game for the NFC North, as the winner will have the inside track on the division and a playoff berth,” Childs said. “And it’s a great game to start Turkey Day. We opened Lions -3, strictly on having home field, as these teams grade out equally on my power ratings. So far, most of the early money is on the ‘dog, so we adjusted the Vikings to +3 (-120), hanging some extra juice on them.”

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL's biggest betting mismatches: Turkey Day edition
By MONTY ANDREWS

Each week, Monty Andrews breaks down some of the underlying mismatches in the NFL, giving you an inside edge when handicapping the schedule and setting your daily fantasy lineup.

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-3, 42.5)

Vikings' stout run defense vs. Lions' lack of ground scoring

Anyone who wrote off the Vikings defense going into its Week 11 encounter with the Arizona Cardinals is probably giving that stance a second thought. The Vikings D/ST had a sensational day, generating a pair of field-length touchdowns on the way to a pivotal 30-24 victory over the Cards. And while David Johnson did plenty of damage on the ground, Minnesota remains one of the stingiest teams when it comes to rushing scores; the Lions are about to find that out first-hand.

The Vikings have limited opponents to just five rushing touchdowns through their first 10 games of the season. Johnson's one-yard scoring scamper with 4:07 remaining in the first quarter is the only rushing TD Minnesota has surrendered in its previous three games. That stretch includes a showdown against Detroit in which the Lions prevailed 22-16, but averaged just 3.9 yards per carry - a number that falls to 2.3 if you take out Theo Riddick's 42-yard run - and didn't have a rush attempt inside the 10.

That pass-heavy red-zone strategy has been the Lions' modus operandi so far this season. Detroit enters its Week 12 encounter with just four rushing touchdowns on the year - and one of those came courtesy TE Eric Ebron, who had a one-yard scoring plunge in Sunday's 26-19 plunge over Jacksonville. The Lions' ineptitude at rushing in the red zone, combined with the Vikings' aptitude at preventing rushing scores, could mean bad news for the Detroit offense in a challenging divisional tilt.

Daily fantasy watch: Vikings D/ST

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-6.5, 50)

Redskins' wretched road rush D vs. Cowboys' dominance in Big D

The latest edition of the Thanksgiving showdown between the Redskins and Cowboys takes on added significance this year, with the Cowboys riding an incredible nine-game winning streak and the Redskins battling with the New York Giants for second place in the NFC East. Yet, while both of these teams have plenty of firepower, the Cowboys enjoy a significant mismatch that grows even bigger in the friendly confines of AT&T Stadium.

The Redskins rank in the lower third of the league in run defense, allowing just over 112 yards per game on the ground. That number climbs to 121 yards away from Washington, the eighth-worst road mark in football. While Washington has boasted a much more robust run defense at home - even limiting Dallas rookie superstar Ezekiel Elliott to 83 yards in a Week 2 defeat - the Redskins have been gashed for six rushing touchdowns in four road games. They'll play four of their final six games outside Washington.

That difficult stretch starts with what will easily be their toughest remaining test. Dallas has been an absolute force in the ground game this season, ranking second in both overall rushing yards per game (156.7) and home rushing yards per contest (157.0). Look for Elliott to exploit Washington's weaknesses on the defensive line - aided, of course, by the top offensive line in football - and make things extraordinally difficult for the Redskins in hostile territory.

Daily fantasy watch: RB Ezekiel Elliott

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (OFF)

Steelers' third-down road shutdown vs. Colts' home conversion woes

The narrative just won't go away: The Pittsburgh Steelers are a far worse offensive team on the road than they are at home. And it's hard to argue that point when you consider that, over his last 19 road games, quarterback Ben Roethlisberger has thrown just 19 TD passes compared to 55 over his previous 19 home games. But this entry focuses on the Steelers' impressive third-down road defense, and how it matches up favorably with a Colts team struggling to convert on third down at home.

Pittsburgh has been one of the toughest teams in the league when it comes to home teams facing third-down situations, with the Steelers allowing a minuscule 33.3-percent conversion rate. That's tied with the Miami Dolphins for the second-best rate, behind only the Oakland Raiders (28.8). And while facing the Browns in Cleveland doesn't hurt - Pittsburgh held them to 4-for-15 on third downs in Sunday's win - the Steelers have been almost as stingy against the rest of their road opponents.

That bodes poorly for the Colts, who come into the game as a slight underdog despite having home-field advantage. Only six teams have been less successful at converting third downs at home than Indianapolis, whose 37.1-percent success rate is down from the 40 percent mark it posted a season ago. Whether it's Andrew Luck or Scott Tolzien under center, look for the Colts to try and avoid having to convert third downs against a Pittsburgh defensive unit that has proven adept at forcing home teams to punt.

Daily fantasy fade: WR Donte Moncrief

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL Week 12 lines that make you go hmmm...
By PETER KORNER

Longtime Las Vegas oddsmaker Peter Korner sizes up this week’s NFL schedule and picks out some of the lines making him go “hmmmm…” in Week 12:

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-7, 51)

The Cowboys show no signs of slowing down as they continue to pile up the points on offense, game in and game out. This looks to be a real shootout so we’ll take aim at that total and lean toward the Over. I made this closer to 54 points and think that total is very susceptible to being hit.

Dallas has scored 28, 30, 29, 35, 35 and 27 in its past six games and earlier in the year, the two rivals posted a 27-23 score. The track is faster this week, the offenses have now gelled and, with a national audience, this marquee game looks to be a very fast-paced contest.

Washington is no slouch when it comes to offensive might and the Redskins are coming off a 42-point outburst of their own this past week. Something tells me we won’t see a slow-down game between these two this time around. Go with the Over and enjoy your early turkey.

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (+3, 54)

Obviously, this line may move quick as we wait for Andrew Luck’s status (concussion) to solidify. I say, if you can still get the -2.5 now, take it as quickly as you can because this is the lowest this number is going to be. Most places are dealing a field goal.

This play is nothing more than taking advantage of the line before the bookmakers get wise. The line will move to -6 or -7, where it will close when Luck is deemed out. Grab this early, like right now and enjoy your late turkey.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Total Talk - Thanksgiving
By Chris David

Based on Sunday’s opening numbers, this year’s Thanksgiving Day card was expected to start off slow with a slugfest and end with a couple shootouts but a key injury will likely simmer the nightcap in Indianapolis. Two of three games on tap are divisional matchups and all six of the teams in action are very well alive in this year’s playoff hunt.

Let’s break down the holiday totals.

Minnesota at Detroit (CBS, 12:30 p.m. ET)

The ‘under’ has cashed in five of the last six meetings in this series, which includes their first encounter this season in Week 9. Detroit rallied for an improbable 22-16 overtime win at Minnesota and even though the game went to the extra session, the ‘under’ (42) was never in doubt. The pace of the game was slow as both clubs combined for only 21 possessions, which included the game-winning drive by Detroit in overtime.

Minnesota and Detroit have both leaned to the ‘under’ (6-4) this season yet both clubs bring different total streaks into this matchup. After watching the ‘over’ begin 4-2, the Lions have seen their last four games go ‘under’ the total and the defense has an allowed an average of 18 points per game during this run and the offense (20.3 PPG) hasn’t looked that sharp.

Meanwhile, the Vikings started the season with a 6-2 ‘under’ mark but the ‘over’ has cashed in their last two games.

The Vikings are ranked last in total offense (293.8 YPG) and those numbers have been worse on the road (276.6 YPG). Most would agree that Minnesota has the better defense in this matchup and it should hold Detroit in check. However, the Vikings have been diced up on the ground in its last three games (97, 128, 135 yards).

The total opened 43 and has been bet down to as low as 41 as of Wednesday. Detroit has seen the ‘over’ go 7-2 in its last nine games played on Thanksgiving Day and it’s helped the cause the last four seasons by averaging 37.5 PPG.

For what it’s worth, the NFC North has played six divisional games this season and the four teams have combined for a 5-1 ‘under’ mark.


Washington at Dallas (FOX, 4:30 p.m. ET)

The late afternoon Thanksgiving Day contest features another rematch as Washington will look to avenge a 27-23 home loss to Dallas in Week 2. The ‘over’ (47.5) connected late in the fourth quarter of that game and is now on a 3-1 run in this series. The Redskins moved the ball (432 yards) at will in the loss and if it wasn’t for three short field goals (36, 29, 22), they likely would’ve captured the victory.

Washington has been a great ‘over’ bet all season (8-2) but its two worst offensive outings of the season did come on the road. One key to the number of high tickets has been the Redskins inability to slow anybody down in the red zone. They’ve allowed 26 touchdowns and only managed to stifle teams to 13 field goals. Offensively, they’ve had the opposite issue as they’ve settled for too many field goals (23) in comparison to touchdowns (26).

Dallas has leaned to the ‘under’ (6-4) this season and you can point to the improved defense as a key reason. The Cowboys “bend but don’t break” unit has been great in the red zone and they’re only allowing 18.7 PPG, which is a major improvement from the past two seasons (27 PPG, 23.4 PPG).

The total for Thursday opened 51 and has jumped up to 52 at a few betting shops and that number could be a tad inflated if you go on past history. In the last 20 meetings, the pair have only seen two of their encounters listed in the fifties and both games went ‘under.’

The Cowboys have been diced up recently in the holiday matchup, allowing 32 PPG the last four years and that includes a 38-31 win by Washington in the 2012 encounter. Based on the stats mentioned above, this year’s Dallas defensive unit is underrated and going against the betting public (86% Over) is never a bad idea.


Pittsburgh at Indianapolis (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)

This game had all the makings for a classic back-and-forth contest but with Colts QB Andrew Luck (concussion) expected to miss, the oddsmakers are expecting Pittsburgh (-8) to cruise for the second straight week as a road favorite. The total opened 54 and has dropped to 48 as of Wednesday afternoon.

Scott Tolzien is expected to get the start for Indianapolis and nobody knows what to expect from the backup. He’s only started two games in his four-year career and his numbers (1 TD, 5 INTs) are less than stellar.

Pittsburgh’s offense appears to be coming around, scoring 54 combined points the last two weeks and it should be able to move the ball on a Colts defense (397 YPG) that is third worst in the league. Plus, the Indianapolis defense is ranked 29th in takeaways and the secondary only has three interceptions.

Another reason to lean high is that the Steelers defense (363.6 YPG) doesn’t compare to units we’ve seen in previous seasons and they’ve been very suspect on the road (22 PPG).

Indy has watched the ‘over’ go 7-3 this season but the ‘under’ is 3-2 in the first five games at Lucas Oil Stadium. Pittsburgh is 7-3 to the ‘under’ and that includes a 4-1 mark on the road. Make a note that the Steelers have played in two primetime games this season and they scored 38 and 43 points and the ‘over’ connected easily in each contest.

This will be the 11th season that the NFL will have a primetime game on Thanksgiving. The ‘under’ has gone 6-4 in the first 10 matchups and home teams have posted a 6-4 mark as well.


Fearless Predictions

As I’ve said before in past pieces on this holiday, if you’re reading this then you’re probably betting and for that, be thankful that you can. As always, Press, Pass or Fade but in the end – Good Luck and Happy Thanksgiving to you and yours!

Best Over: Pittsburgh-Indianapolis 48

Best Under: Dallas-Washington 52

Best Team Total: Over Pittsburgh 28

Three-Team Total Teaser (9-Point, +100):
Under 50 ½ Minnesota-Detroit
Under 61 Washington-Dallas
Over 39 Pittsburgh-Indianapolis

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Are NFL betting odds inflated on Thanksgiving Day?
By JASON LOGAN

How much money your brother spent on the turkey and how “talented” your tone-deaf little niece is aren’t the only fibs flying this Thanksgiving.

If you’re a sports bettor – and you are – there’s a certain mythos that goes with NFL Thanksgiving Day odds, especially pertaining to the pointspreads. Word on the street is that sportsbooks inflate the favorites to protect themselves from the millions of well-fed casual bettors with the day off that love to lay the points in the holiday showcase games.

So we asked sportsbooks in Las Vegas and online if Thanksgiving Day spreads are really stuffed like a turkey?

The answer is about as clear as your drunken uncle’s rant on “kids with cell phones”. But there are definitely some spoonfuls of “Yes” and “No”. When you get down to the giblets, it really depends on where you play.

“If I were an oddsmaker, and I was, I won’t change how I set the lines for the Thanksgiving games,” says Scott Kaminsky. “However, once the sportsbooks get those spreads, they decide what they do with them. A good sportsbook manager knows his clientele. And if you have a customer base of mostly recreational bettors, yeah sure, you may want to inflate the lines.”

Kaminsky, whose customer base is considered one of the sharpest in the industry, says that years ago bookmakers could get away with inflating the lines for these big games, knowing the public would blindly bet the favorites.

“The days of puffing up the numbers, well, I think those days are gone,” he says. “We could make certain numbers a little higher. But the market is so much smarter now. You just have to make the numbers what you think they should be.”

Favorites are always popular public plays for the NFL standalone evening games, and the same goes for the trio of Thanksgiving contests. And more often than not, the home team is the one giving the points.

This year, hosts Dallas and Detroit opened as favorites and the last three seasons saw all but one home team favored by the books. Over the past six seasons, there have only been three home dogs on Thanksgiving – the Cowboys closed at +1 versus Carolina in 2015, the Lions were +3.5 vs. Houston in 2012 and were +4 vs. Green Bay in 2011.

“The favorites aren’t necessarily inflated but the home team has a bigger advantage, in my opinion, being on the short week and not having to travel and worry about family, etc,” says Michael Stewart, an oddsmaker.

Having all three favorites come in is a quick way to ruin the bookmaker’s holiday. That perfect storm hasn’t happened for a while, with the last all-chalk Thanksgiving coming in 2008 when the Titans, Cowboys and Eagles all covered in their respective games. The last three years, favorites are 4-5 ATS but that doesn’t make books feel any safer this Thursday.

“Yeah, they usually are (inflated),” Jeff Stoneback, sportsbook manager at the MGM Mirage, says of the Thanksgiving NFL spreads. “If all three favorites hit, we can get hurt.”

Stoneback says the threat of a very chalky Thanksgiving isn’t as pronounced this season, thanks to some solid scheduling on the NFL’s behalf (Hmmm… the NFL doing the bookmakers a favor. Who’d a thunk it?).

Unlike recent years, when Thanksgiving spreads touched double digits, the three games Thursday are very competitive matchups. The Cowboys are the biggest favorite at -7. Last season, the closing spreads were also short, at 7.5, three and one point.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Inside the betting stats: Thanksgiving football edition
By MARC LAWRENCE

Welcome to the special Thanksgiving edition of Inside The Betting Stats. Let’s take a look into some of the holiday football games on tap on this years Turkey Day card.

Let The Festivities Begin

Thursday marks the 47th consecutive Thanksgiving Day home game for the kings of the jungle, where the Detroit Lions are 23-24 SU since 1970.

It had been a long time between drinks of victory water for the Lions on Thanksgiving Day until they walloped the Green Bay Packers, 40-10, at home in 2013. The victory snapped a 0-9 SU and 2-7 ATS losing streak on Turkey Day for the Lions. They since defeated the Chicago Bears and the Philadelphia Eagles here on Thanksgiving Day and as a result they now carry a 3-0 SU and ATS skein in its last three appearances on feast day.

Cowboy Steak

Like the Lions, the Dallas Cowboys have long been a Thanksgiving Day fixture as a host since 1978 where they’ve gone 22-16 SU and 21-17 ATS, including 15-7 SU and 14-8 ATS of late when playing off a SU win.

The ‘Boys have not been particularly tough hosting winning teams on Turkey Day, though, winning only 7 of the last 18 games against relevant opposition, including a 1-5 SU and 0-6 ATS mark since 2000.

Wander Lost

Thursday’s matchup between the Steelers and Colts marks the eighth time in team history that Pittsburgh has played on Thanksgiving. All eight contests have taken place away from the Steel City.

The only Turkey Day victory by Pittsburgh occurred in 1950 when they defeated the Chicago Cardinals, 28-17.

Inside The Stats

Looking inside the stats this season at each NFL team on Thanksgiving Day we find:

Minnesota Vikings: 1-4 SU and ATS last five games... held 4 foes to season low yards this season

Detroit Lions: 2-0 SU but 0-2 ‘In The Stats’ last two games... allowing 27 YPG more than they are gaining this season

Washington Redskins: 6-1-1 SU and 7-1 ATS following 0-2 SU and ATS start to the season... 6-0 ‘In The Stats’ last 6 games

Dallas Cowboys: 9-0 SU and ATS last 9 games following season opening loss to the New York Giants... 7 turnovers this entire season

Pittsburgh Steelers: 1-4 SU and ATS last 5 games... allowed season high – or 2nd high – yards in 3 games this season

Indianapolis Colts: 1-6 ‘In The Stats’ the last 7 games... forced only 7 turnovers this season

Favorites And Dogs

NFC favorites are 34-23 ATS on Turkey Day games since 1980, while NFC dogs are 21-35-1 ATS.

Meanwhile, AFC favorites sports 14-7-1 ATS mark on Gobbler Day, while AFC dogs are 9-13 ATS.

In games involving a pair of NFC foes the favorite is 24-15 ATS, while AFC chalk is 4-0 SU and 3-1 ATS when going head-to-head against fellow AFC foes.

Texas Tumbleweed

Since entering the SEC, Texas A&M is 21-18 SU and 14-23 ATS in conference play – including 11-15 SU and 7-19 ATS against winning foes.

On the flip side, LSU interim head coach Ed Orgeron is 13-5-1 ATS in his last 19 conference games, including 8-0 ATS following a loss of more than 3 points.

Stat of the Day

Texas A&M is 3-8 SU and 2-9 ATS in its last 11 SEC games during November, including 1-4 SU and 0-5 ATS at home.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thanksgiving Day NFL betting preview: Vikings at Lions

Minnesota Vikings at Detroit Lions (-2.5, 43)

A showdown for the top spot in the NFC North takes place Thursday, when the Detroit Lions host the Minnesota Vikings in their traditional Thanksgiving Day contest. Detroit has won five of its last six games to surge into a tie atop the division with Minnesota, which snapped its four-game skid last week.

The Lions beat the Vikings 22-16 in overtime in Week 9, as Matt Prater made a game-tying 58-yard field goal at the end of regulation and Matthew Stafford hit Golden Tate for a 28-yard touchdown in the extra period. The late-game heroics were nothing new for Detroit, which has had all 10 of its games decided by seven points or fewer - with its six wins coming by a total of 24. "I think they've done a great job at the end of ballgames, including the one we played,” Vikings coach Mike Zimmer told reporters. “The biggest thing is once you start winning, you develop confidence, and that's what they've done at the end of ballgames." Minnesota’s confidence was trending in the opposite direction with four straight losses before holding on for a 30-24 home triumph over Arizona on Sunday.

TV: 12:30 p.m. ET, CBS.

LINE HISTORY: The Lions opened as 2.5-point home favorites over their division rivals from Minnesota and, as of Tuesday evening, that line hasn't moved. The total hit the board at 42.5 and was bumped up to 43 on Monday morning.

WEATHER REPORT: Dome.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "The NFC North has been riddled with inconsistent play amongst the division. Yet, both the Lions and Vikings have a chance to gain full control of the division on Thanksgiving. Both sit at 6-4, without a concrete formula for success. Off a short week expect the Lions to do their best to manage the game on their home field, as they're 4-1 at Ford Field." - Zack Cimini.

INJURY REPORT:

Vikings - CB M. Alexander (Probable, shoulder), LB C. Greenway (Questionable, personal), S A. Sendejo (Questionable, illness), WR S. Diggs (Questionable, knee), DT T. Johnson (Questionable, illness), CB T. Newman (Questionable, neck), CB M. Sherels (Questionable, ribs), LB E. Kendricks (Questionable, hip), CB C. Munnerlyn (Questionable, ankle), QB T. Heinicke (Questionable, foot), DT S. Floyd (Questionable, knee), C Z. Kerin (Questionable, hand), S H. Smith (Questionable, ankle), RB A. Peterson (Mid December, knee), G M. Harris (Questionable, illness), T J. Long (I-R, achilles), T A. Smith (I-R, tricep), T M. Kalil (I-R, hip), QB T. Bridgewater (I-R, knee), DT S. Crichton (I-R, undisclosed), CB J. Price (I-R, knee), S A. Exum Jr. (I-R, leg).

Lions - RB T. Riddick (Probable, ankle), CB A. Barnes (Questionable, hamstring), S D. Carey (Questionable, hamstring), DE E. Ansah (Questionable, ankle), C G. Glasgow (Questionable, ankle), DT K. Thornton (Questionable, foot), LB D. Levy (Out, quadricep), DE A. Bryant (Elig Week 13, suspension), TE B. Pettigrew (Doubtful, knee), RB A. Abdullah (Questionable, foot), TE C. Wick (I-R, knee), TE T. Wright (I-R, knee), LB J. Bostic (I-R, foot), LS J. Landes (I-R, shoulder), CB I. Wells (I-R, knee), WR R. Spadola (I-R, pectoral).

ABOUT THE VIKINGS (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS, 4-6 O/U): Minnesota’s league-worst offense had another rough showing last week with 217 total yards, but a defensive score and a special-teams touchdown helped make up for it. The Vikings could be without a major offensive weapon in Stefon Diggs, who has averaged 10 catches over his last four games and ranks second in the NFC with 67 receptions but is questionable with a knee injury. Minnesota’s third-ranked pass defense will be put to the test but is coming off a strong outing in which it limited Arizona to 155 yards.

ABOUT THE LIONS (6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS, 4-6 O/U): Detroit has become increasingly one-dimensional on offense, all but abandoning the run in recent weeks and finishing with just 14 rushing yards against Jacksonville on Sunday. Running back Theo Riddick is nursing an ankle injury but is expected to play, but he is a bigger factor for Stafford and the passing game than the ground attack. The defense has been excellent of late, holding the last three opponents to an average of 297 total yards and forcing three turnovers last week.

TRENDS:

* Vikings are 6-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
* Lions are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on fieldturf.
* Under is 14-3 in Vikings last 17 vs. NFC North.
* Under is 5-1 in the last 6 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The home favorite Lions are picking 54 percent of the point spread action and the Over is getting 62 percent of the totals wagers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thanksgiving Day NFL betting preview: Redskins at Cowboys

Washington Redskins at Dallas Cowboys (-7, 51)

The Dallas Cowboys were on the verge of a falling into an early 0-2 hole this season before rallying for a 27-23 victory at the Washington Redskins in Week 2. That comeback provided the impetus for a nine-game winning streak for the red-hot Cowboys, who will host the arch-rival Redskins in a rematch on Thanksgiving Day.

Dallas overcame another slow start to beat the Baltimore Ravens 27-17 on Sunday and maintain a two-game lead over the New York Giants atop the NFC East - with Washington sitting another half-game back. “We’re not going to spend a lot of time on that, to be honest with you,” Cowboys coach Jason Garrett said of his team's tear, especially with such a quick turnaround for Thursday's game. The Redskins have dug themselves out of an 0-2 hole to stay within striking range of Dallas by dismantling the Green Bay Packers 42-24 on Sunday night to improve to 6-1-1 in their last eight. “It’s one game,” cautioned Washington wideout DeSean Jackson. "This next game will determine a lot. If we go out and knock them out, a lot of people will see what we’re about.”

TV: 4:30 p.m. ET, FOX.

LINE HISTORY: The Cowboys opened as 7-point home favorites, the line went down to -6.5 on Monday morning, jumped all of the way up to -7.5 on Monday afternoon, and settled back to the key opening number of -7 on Tuesday. The total hit the board at 48.5 and rose steadily to 51 by Tuesday evening.

WEATHER REPORT: Conditions are expected to be clear with temperatures in the upper-60's on Thursday afternoon in Arlington.

WHAT SHARPS SAY: "These have been two of the most profitable teams in the NFL this season. The Cowboys are 9-1 ATS, while the Redskins are 7-3 ATS, so combined they are 16-4 ATS. Dallas has been a 7-point favorite or less in every game this season, despite going 9-1 SU. That is one of the reasons they have been a pointspread covering machine. However, the oddsmakers will now have no choice but to start inflating the lines on the Cowboys' games going forward." - Steve Merril.

INJURY REPORT:

Redskins - S W. Blackmon (Probable, thumb), WR J. Crowder (Probable, back), T M. Moses (Probable, ankle), RB M. Jones (Questionable, knee), LS N. Sundberg (Questionable, back), DE C. Baker (Questionable, hamstring), WR D. Jackson (Questionable, shoulder), T T. Nsekhe (Questionable, ankle), LB P. Smith (Questionable, back), T T. Williams (Elig Week 14, suspension), S D. Bruton Jr (Out, concussion), WR J. Doctson (Out, achilles).

Cowboys - WR D. Bryant (Probable, back), OL C. Green (Questionable, foot), DE D. Lawrence (Questionable, back), T T. Smith (Questionable, back), CB M. Claiborne (Out, hernia), S B. Church (Out, forearm), DE R. Gregory (Elig Week 15, suspension), RB D. McFadden (Probable, elbow), OL L. Collins (Doubtful, toe).

ABOUT THE REDSKINS (6-3-1 SU, 7-3 ATS, 8-2 O/U): Kirk Cousins threw a killer interception that led to the winning touchdown in the first matchup against Dallas, but he is coming off a sensational performance against Green Bay in which he recorded 375 yards in the air and three scores while posting a season-best 145.8 passer rating. Jackson returned from injury Sunday to bolster a deep receiving corps that includes Pierre Garcon, Jamison Crowder and tight end Jordan Reed, while rookie Rob Kelley has invigorated the ground game. Kelley rushed for 137 yards and three TDs on Sunday and has amassed 321 yards in his first three starts. Washington is sixth in the league with 27 sacks, including four versus Dallas in Week 2.

ABOUT THE COWBOYS (9-1 SU, 9-1 ATS, 4-6 O/U): Dallas continues to ride the rookie tandem of quarterback Dak Prescott and running back Ezekiel Elliott, the two main cogs for an offense that has produced 400 total yards in eight straight games. Elliott has run for nine touchdowns and is leading the NFL with 1,102 yards rushing while Prescott has relegated Tony Romo to benchwarmer, throwing for 867 yards, eight scores and zero interceptions in his last three games. Wideout Dez Bryant, who missed more than a month due to injury, had a pair of scoring receptions Sunday and went over 100 yards in the first meeting. Dallas is suspect against the pass, allowing an average of 263.5 yards.

TRENDS:

* Redskins are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
* Cowboys are 9-0 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
* Over is 9-1 in Redskins last 10 vs. NFC.
* Redskins are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 meetings in Dallas.

CONSENSUS: The road underdog Skins are picking 59 percent of the point spread action and the Over is getting 72 percent of the totals wagers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thanksgiving Day NFL betting preview: Steelers at Colts

Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts (+8, 47.5)

Back-to-back wins have vaulted the Indianapolis Colts back into the playoff picture, but they are nearly certain to be without Andrew Luck when they host the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday night. Luck, who is having another strong campaign as he ranks fourth in the NFL with 2,827 yards passing with 19 touchdowns and eight interceptions, entered concussion protocol after guiding Indianapolis past Tennessee last week, and coach Chuck Pagano doesn't believe he'll be cleared in time to play.

Scott Tolzien, who has played in six games in his six-year career, will get the start should Luck not be ready. Tolzien is 56-of-91 for 721 yards with a touchdown and five interceptions in the NFL. Pittsburgh not only snapped its four-game losing streak with a win over lowly Cleveland last time out, but it jumped into a first-place tie in the AFC North in the process. Le'Veon Bell rushed for 146 yards and a score as the Steelers sent the Browns to their 11th straight loss on Sunday.

TV: 8:30 p.m. ET, NBC.

LINE HISTORY: The Steelers opened as 2.5-point road favorites but news of Andrew Luck's injury drove that line all of the way up to 8.5. That number came down slightly to 8 on Wednesday morning. The total opened at 53.5 but was also impacted by Luck's absense and dropped to 48 on Tuesday.

WEATHER REPORT: Dome.

INJURY REPORT:

Steelers - S J. Dangerfield (Questionable, groin), S S. Thomas (Questionable, groin), TE X. Grimble (Questionable, quadricep), RB D. Williams (Out, knee), WR D. Heyward-Bey (Out, foot), WR M. Bryant (Out For Season, suspension), WR M. Wheaton (I-R, shoulder) CB S. Golson (I-R, foot), DE C. Heyward (I-R, pectoral), LB S. Johnson (I-R, ankle), C C. Wallace (I-R, knee), T R. Harris (I-R, shin), G C. Manhart (I-R, undisclosed), T J. Hawkins (I-R, shoulder), C V. Ume-Ezeoke (I-R, undisclosed.

Colts - CB R. Melvin (Probable, back), DT A. Jones (Probable, knee), CB P. Robinson (Probable, groin), CB V. Davis (Questionable, ankle), S C. Geathers (Questionable, concussion), QB A. Luck (Doubtful, concussion), DE K. Langford (I-R, knee), WR Q. Bray (I-R, ankle), LB T. Cole (Questionable, back), G H. Thornton (I-R, foot), S A. Williamson (I-R, knee).

ABOUT THE STEELERS (5-5 SU, 5-5 ATS, 3-7 O/U): Bell has been an all-purpose monster since returning from a three-game suspension to start the season, but Sunday marked the first time since Week 4 that he gained over 100 yards on the ground for the Steelers, who rank 23rd in rushing offense. Bell's success took some of the burden off Ben Roethlisberger, who was held without a touchdown pass in a contest which surprisingly was still in doubt until Javon Hargrave recovered a fumble for a touchdown late in the fourth quarter. Roethlisberger threw four TD passes as Pittsburgh hammered Indianapolis 45-10 last season, another game in which the Colts played without Luck, and the Steelers - who have won the last two matchups by a combined 45 points - cautioned his counterpart not to play. "I will tell him, and this has nothing to do with football, but just to be smart," Roethlisberger told reporters. "The brain is nothing to mess with. He is young and has a long career ahead of himself."

ABOUT THE COLTS (5-5 SU, 5-4-1 ATS, 7-3 O/U): Clearing concussion protocol is a huge hurdle for Luck in the short week, and the fact that the Colts don't play again until Dec. 5 against the New York Jets leaves it likely they'll let both Luck and safety Clayton Geathers use the extra time to get well. Geathers also was placed in concussion protocol after Sunday's game and cornerback Vontae Davis is questionable with an ankle injury, leaving the Colts' passing defense in an ominous situation against Roethlisberger, who has thrown 10 touchdown passes in his last two games against Indianapolis. The Colts may try to lean more on a ground game led by Frank Gore (642 yards, four touchdowns), but they rank 25th in the league in rushing.

TRENDS:

* Steelers are 2-8 ATS in their last 10 games in November.
* Colts are 12-1-1 ATS in their last 14 Thursday games.
* Under is 5-1 in Steelers last 6 games overall.
* Over is 4-0 in the last 4 meetings.

CONSENSUS: The road favorite Steelers are picking 66 percent of the point spread action and the Over is getting 59 percent of the totals wagers.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

'Thanksgiving'

Thanksgiving is always a big day for NFL Football fans as well as those with a penchant towards sports gaming. This year, first kickoff is 12:30 EST at Ford Field with Detroit hosting Minnesota followed by Redskins visiting Jerry's house to take on Cowboys at 04:30 EST and in the 08:30 EST finale Steelers, Colts clash at Lucas Oil Stadium.

NFL football bettors have scored profits in Thanksgiving day tilt's simply wagering on the favorite. Since 2000, favorites have cashed at a 64.3% clip over the 16 year span with home teams faves 13-8 against the betting line, road chalks 14-7 ATS. Cashing 64.3% is considered major handicapping success. However, before jumping all over the favorites, do note favorites clashing with a division opponent on Thanksgiving Day have been dicey bets this milenium posting a 7-8 record against the betting line split between 3-5 ATS as home chalk, 4-3 ATS for squads wearing road jersey`s.

A few additional betting alerts as it applies to Thursday`s two division battles. Lions have a 1-4 ATS home slide vs Vikings, 0-3 ATS home skid as faves vs team of a win and are 0-4 ATS recently at home vs the division. As for Dallas, the Cowboys have recorded a 1-8 ATS record hosting Redskins and have failed to cash in 6-of-7 at home vs the division.

Currently, books have Lions favored by field goal over division rival Vikings, the Cowboys are 7-point choices over rival Redskins and in the finale Steelers are 2.5 point road chalk over Colts.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's Top Action

NFL Week 12 Thanksgiving Football Betting Preview
Minnesota Vikings (6-4 SU; 6-4 ATS) vs. Detroit Lions (6-4 SU; 6-4 ATS)

Odds: Detroit (-2.5); Total set at 43.5

Thanksgiving is always a great time of year for football bettors and this year's triple header is arguably the best three-pack of NFL games fans have had on this day for many years. All six teams involved are coming off victories and in playoff battles, with two of the contests being huge divisional battles between quality foes.

The first of those is a battle for 1st place in the NFC North as Minnesota is in Detroit to take on the Lions, less than a month after these two teams played an OT game that Detroit ended up winning. That 22-16 defeat was Minnesota's lone home loss of the year and they'd love to return the favor in Detroit this week to take sole possession of 1st place in the division.

The Lions may be 6-4 SU, but they are winning with a bit of smoke and mirrors as all six of their victories have come when they've been trailing in the 4th quarter. Results in that situation aren't likely to be sustained over the long haul, but there is no denying that the Lions are much better at home.

Detroit hasn't lost on their home field since a 16-15 defeat to Tennessee in Week 2 as they've rattled off four straight W's in that building. But going deeper into those victories, you'll find that they've beaten Philadelphia, Los Angeles, Washington, and Jacksonville during that run and it's not hard to argue that none of those teams will end up in the playoffs.

Only the Redskins have a legitimate shot at seeing postseason action, and while that was a solid win and Washington has been playing good football of late, I'm not ready to consider them a definite contender as of yet.

Now, obviously you could argue that Minnesota's status as a contender remains uncertain, but with the kind of top tier defense they've got, the Vikings will always have a chance at a win. That defense wasn't spectacular last week in a 30-24 win over Arizona, but the Vikings got a 100-yard Pick-Six from that defense, and special teams also chipped in with a 104-yard kickoff return.

While some will say that getting those points from the defense/special teams is somewhat lucky and ultimately decided the game in Minnesota's favor and the offense still stinks is blatantly ignoring the fact that football games are won by strong play from all three units (offense/defense/special teams).

Minnesota's got one of the best defenses and one of the best special teams units in the league, so coming off the bus with advantages over nearly every team in two of those three aspects simply can't be ignored. On a short week, it could very well end up that one or both of those units for Minnesota turn this game in their favor and that has to be accounted for.

Finally, Minnesota hasn't forgotten how they lost that first meeting with Detroit as they scored the go-ahead TD with 23 second left, only to watch Matthew Stafford move the ball into FG range in the remaining time and the Lions kicker hitting a 58-yard FG to send it to OT. That was definitely a game the Vikings believe they should have had and now they get a chance to right that wrong.

Minnesota came into this building last year as small underdogs (+1) and won outright 28-19, and are 4-1 ATS in their last five visits to Detroit. They are also on a 22-5 ATS run after covering the point spread the week before, and know just how important a win this week is to their playoff hopes.

A loss would put them a game behind the Lions and down 0-2 in the season series, ruining any chance of winning a tiebreaker there. There is clearly more desperation on the Minnesota sidelines this week and they should find a way to not only get another ATS victory, but win this game outright.

Best Bet: Minnesota +2.5


Washington Redskins (6-3-1 SU; 7-3 ATS) vs. Dallas Cowboys (9-1 SU; 9-1 ATS)

Odds: Dallas (-7); Total set at 51.5

The Washington Redskins looked very impressive in their SNF win over the Green Bay Packers last week as this team is doing everything they can to keep pace with the Giants and Cowboys in the NFC East. This week the Redskins head to Dallas on a very short week after being involved in the SNF matchup and I'm not sure there is a tougher scheduling spot for any team this season. Throw in the fact that Dallas has won nine in a row and dominating teams along the way and Washington is really in tough this week.

Dallas began their nine-game win streak with a 27-23 victory in Washington back in Week 2 as rookie QB Dak Prescott earned his first NFL victory. No one would have ever thought that the win that week would be the start of this incredible run the Cowboys have been on, yet here they are in Week 12 with a two-game lead in the division and looking like a Super Bowl favorite.

Not only have the Cowboys won outright in every single game since then, they've also covered the point spread in each of those nine victories, endearing themselves to faithful bettors that were willing to back Dallas every week along the way. But this is still a short week for them too and after three straight games against AFC North foes, getting back into division play should add a little extra intensity to this week's game.

Washington has played some solid football since then too as they currently hold the 6th seed in the NFC and will be doing everything they can the rest of the way to at least hold on to that position. A win this week would put them right back in the hunt for a division title, but another loss to Dallas would all but ensure that the only way Washington will get back to the playoffs is through a wildcard position.

Therefore, the stakes are definitely higher for the Washington side, and being on even a shorter week than Dallas doesn't do them any favors.

From a betting perspective, it's tough to try and step in front of this Dallas train that has been cashing tickets hand over fist. Nine straight ATS covers is a very tough thing to accomplish in the NFL and the fact that the Cowboys have done it with an all-rookie backfield makes it that much more impressive.

However, eventually this Cowboys team will get caught by the slightly inflated numbers they have been laying as bettors will continue to ride this train until it bucks them, and that makes laying the points with Dallas again this week a difficult proposition as well.

Instead, I'm looking at this total at 51.5 points and believe it's a little too high. Yes, these two teams put up 50 points in their first meeting and that was prior to both teams getting on a roll, but you can't discount the fact that this week's game is a short week game for both sides and a divisional matchup with the stakes much higher then they were in Week 2.

Furthermore, during this incredible run by the Cowboys, what is seemingly lost in all of it is how well their defense has been playing. Five of their past seven games have stayed 'under' the total thanks to Dallas allowing 18.1 points/game over that span. Only twice in the last eight weeks have Cowboys opponents reached 20 or more points, and I wouldn't be surprised to see the Redskins be the seventh team in the last nine weeks to fail to reach that number.

On Washington's side, they've got a much better idea how to try and slow down the Dak Prescott/Ezekiel Elliott train this time around and while their defense hasn't been great with five straight opponents scoring 20 or more against them, none of those teams have topped 30 points vs. Washington as they know how to hold the fort when their backs are up against the wall.

With all of the early money on this game coming in on the high side of this total so far when you look at betting percentages board (89% on the over), I have no problem going the other way as this game should finish in the mid-to-high 40's.

Best Bet: Washington/Dallas Under 51.5 points

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Vikings (6-4) at Lions (6-4)

Date: November 24, 2016 12:30 PM EDT

The Minnesota Vikings learned the hard way earlier this month about the Detroit Lions' late-game prowess. The Vikings would prefer to give themselves a little more elbow room in the rematch on Thanksgiving Day in Detroit.

The Lions stole a win in Minnesota on Nov. 6 after the Vikings took the lead with 23 seconds remaining in regulation. A 58-yard Matt Prater field goal sent the game into overtime, and Detroit completed the comeback with a 28-yard Matthew Stafford-to-Golden Tate pass play.

That 22-16 overtime victory is the reason why the NFC North teams are tied for first place at 6-4. Detroit has staged a fourth-quarter comeback in all of its wins.

"Every one of their games they've played have been seven points or less," Vikings coach Mike Zimmer said. "I think they've done a great job at the end of ballgames, including the one we played. The biggest thing is once you start winning, you develop confidence and that's what they've done at the end of ballgames."

The Lions have also learned how to win in their annual Thankgiving Day game after nearly a decade of futility. They have a three-game winning streak on the holiday following a nine-game losing streak.

"It's a division game at our place on Thanksgiving," said Stafford, whose team has won five of its last six games. "There's no getting around it. I expect it to be an awesome atmosphere and both teams playing at a high level."

Neither team expects many surprises, considering they played each other so recently and have a short week to prepare.

"From a game-planning standpoint, at least you're familiar," Stafford said. "They're fresh in your mind from just a couple of weeks ago. It doesn't diminish the challenge the Minnesota Vikings give us. They're a really good defense, a really good team, really well coached. We'll have our hands full but as far as a preparation standpoint, it doesn't seem too long ago I was looking at film of these guys anyways."

Norv Turner resigned as Minnesota's offensive coordinator just before the first meeting and was replaced by tight ends coach Pat Shurmur. Though Shurmur has now had time to settle into the role, Vikings quarterback Sam Bradford said the offense has simply been tweaked.

"We're still the same team," Bradford said. "I don't think it's been that drastic. I don't think Detroit's going to look at the film and say, 'That's a completely different group.' Our guys are just a little more familiar with some of the things Pat has put in the past couple weeks."

The Vikings' offense only generated three second-half points against Arizona on Sunday but Minnesota still snapped a four-game losing streak. The Vikings recorded a defensive touchdown and another on Cordarrelle Patterson's 104-yard kickoff return in the 30-24 victory.

They still rank at the bottom of the league in yards per game.

"There's a lot of room for improvement," Bradford said of the offense. "We've got to be better in the second half but there were some positives. Just to get a win does a lot for this team and does a lot for this group. Hopefully, it's something we can build on going forward."

Minnesota's best offensive weapon is wide receiver Stefon Diggs, who has 40 receptions over the last four games. He caught 13 passes for 80 yards against Detroit.

"Any time you have somebody catching that many balls, that's a pretty good outing," Lions coach Jim Caldwell said. "He's a talented guy. I know one thing, if you let him catch too many, at some point in time, he's going to burn you because he's explosive as well."

The Lions also scored defensive and special teams touchdowns in their 26-19 victory over Jacksonville on Sunday. Stafford didn't throw a touchdown pass and the running game generated only 14 yards. The Lions also had two fumbles after losing just one fumble in their previous nine games.

"The good thing about playing on a Thursday is you get to go out there and quickly redeem yourself," Stafford said.

The last time the teams met on Thanksgiving Day was 1995, when the Lions pulled out a wild 44-38 victory.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Redskins (6-3) at Cowboys (9-1)

Date: November 24, 2016 4:30 PM EDT

The Dallas Cowboys are the talk of the NFL right now, racing out to the league's best record and a club-record winning streak behind pair of dynamic offensive rookies.

The Cowboys (9-1) haven't lost since the season opener way back on Sept. 11. It's a start that has everyone's attention, given the prominence of the franchise and the circumstances surrounding its unexpected dominance.

And while Dallas is enjoying its lofty perch atop the league standings, the Cowboys are quite aware of what awaits Thanksgiving against longtime rival Washington at AT&T Stadium.

The defending NFC East champion Redskins (6-3-1) are off to one of their best starts in years and are looking for revenge after losing to Dallas earlier this season.

"I'm excited about it," Cowboys first-year quarterback Dak Prescott said. "I have never done this before, to respond real quick and play another game. But I love ball, and I love these games. I'm excited for it and I'm looking forward to it."

Prescott and running back Ezekiel Elliott have electrified the Cowboys' attack. Prescott has accounted for 21 touchdowns -- 17 passing and four rushing -- and Elliott leads the league in rushing with 1,102 yards.

Dallas has piled up at least 400 yards of total offense in eight consecutive games, tying New England (2007) and Denver (2013) for the longest single-season streaks in NFL history.

Prescott threw for 301 yards and three touchdowns, two going to Dez Bryant, in Sunday's 27-17 win over Baltimore. Elliott ran for 97 yards.

The only 10-1 start in Cowboys history came in 2007. Finishing off a season sweep of the Redskins would match that mark.

"We're taking it one game at a time and focusing on what's happening at that moment," said Bryant, who has five touchdown catches. "We're not looking too far ahead."

Washington is no slouch offensively behind Kirk Cousins. The Redskins walloped Green Bay 42-24 on Sunday, scoring the second-most points since Jay Gruden became head coach in 2014.

With 515 total yards against the Packers, Washington has hit at least 500 yards twice this season. That ties the most in a single campaign, dating back to 1950.

The Redskins finished with two 100-yard receivers (Pierre Garcon and Jamison Crowder) and a 100-yard rusher (Robert Kelley) in a single game for the first time since Sept. 12, 1999 against Dallas.

DeSean Jackson stopped short of calling Sunday a breakout performance for the offense.

"I'd like to say that, but it's one game," he said. "You can't put all the eggs in one basket for one game. We have to continue to come out here and put the work in every week. This is going to be a quick week for us, we play another on Thanksgiving.

"That game means a lot for us. We see everybody winning in our division and we still have a lot of work to put in to get to where we need to get to. We know what's at stake and we know what we want to accomplish at the same time."

Washington is off to its best start since opening 7-3 in 1996. The Redskins have rebounded from being 0-2, which included a 27-23 home loss to Dallas on Sept. 18.

Former Washington running back Alfred Morris had the game-winning touchdown for the Cowboys in the fourth quarter.

The Redskins are 6-1-1 since that loss.

"We're feeling good, but at the same time it's a short week and we're playing one of the best teams in the NFL on Thursday," said Cousins, who has seven touchdowns passes in his last three games. "Once again, I feel like I say it every week, but welcome to the NFL.

"It doesn't get any easier from here in our division. A lot of people wanted to take shots at it last year and said, 'You know, it's not a very good division.' I think this year proves that in the NFL everybody is good."

The Cowboys have faced the Redskins a franchise-high seven times on Thanks¬giving and hold a 6-1 record. Washington has won its last to visits to AT&T Stadium.

Dallas, 29-18-1 all-time on the holiday, is aiming to snap a two-game losing streak on Turkey Day.