Thursday 11/24/16 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

Search
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Preview: Steelers (5-5) at Colts (5-5)

Date: November 24, 2016 8:30 PM EDT

The Indianapolis Colts have bought themselves a chance in the AFC South race. But are they equipped to take advantage of it Thursday night?

Monday night's revelation that quarterback Andrew Luck has entered into the NFL's concussion protocol comes at a really bad time for Indianapolis. Because it is hosting the Pittsburgh Steelers Thursday night at Lucas Oil Stadium to round out the slate of Thanksgiving games, Luck has three fewer days to make it through protocol.

Luck, who was injured in Sunday's 24-17 win over the Tennessee Titans early in the fourth quarter but still finished the game, seems like a long shot to make it through protocol by 8:30 Thursday night. Of the players who have been placed in protocol this year, just one has passed all the tests required to play in fewer than five days.

Given that backdrop - and some players do recover quicker than others, although most teams aren't cavalier when it comes to head injuries - it appears likely that Scott Tolzien will run the Colts in this critical game.

Tolzien, who was Aaron Rodgers' backup in Green Bay the last three years, started two games in Rodgers' stead during the 2013 season. He threw for 339 yards at the New York Giants, although he also tossed three interceptions in a 27-13 loss, and was less impressive in a game against Minnesota before getting hooked in a game the Packers rallied to tie.

Since that game, Tolzien has tossed one pass, completing it last year for four yards. Barring a stunningly quick recovery by Luck, Tolzien will throw many more passes in this one.

"We've got a guy that comes to work every single day and prepares like a starter ever since he's been in this building," Indianapolis coach Chuck Pagano said. "He understands and knows this offense and if that's the case, he'll go out and play winning football."

At 5-5, the Colts are only a game back of Houston in the division, thanks to the Texans' 27-20 loss Monday night to Oakland in Mexico City. A win Thursday night would cut that deficit in half, and Houston must host San Diego, which is coming off its bye, Sunday on a short week and after the rigors of playing in 7,500-foot altitude.

So the table is set for Indianapolis, even if it doesn't have all the ingredients it would like.

"You don't ever want to be without anybody, but we have been down this road before and we have handled it well," Pagano said. "Faced a bunch of adversity and obstacles just like everybody else."

Pittsburgh (5-5) certainly won't display any sympathy for the Colts. It had to play New England last month without quarterback Ben Roethlisberger, and predictably lost. That was one of four straight losses that dropped the Steelers under .500.

But Pittsburgh snapped its skid Sunday with a 24-9 win at 0-11 Cleveland, enabling it to tie Baltimore for first place in the AFC North as the Ravens lost in Dallas.

"It's really big when you have a win like this," linebacker Ryan Shazier said. "We'd been on a losing streak, so getting a win is really going to help everybody get into a better mood. We just need to get where we want to go and where we need to go."

Aside from having about two days of prep time before flying to Indianapolis Wednesday, the Steelers appear to have most of the advantages in this one. Their key players are available and relatively healthy, unlike the Colts, who might also be without second-leading tackler Clayton Geathers (concussion).

Pittsburgh's point of emphasis for Thursday night might be finishing off drives. The Steelers constructed four drives of at least 11 plays at Cleveland, but settled for field goals on three of them as a spate of mistakes helped stall them out.

"We have to clean some things up from a detail standpoint when we get into the red zone," running back LeVeon Bell said. "We got away with it (against Cleveland) but other games we may not. We'll watch the film and see what we have to clean up. The details have to be better."

Bell was at his best against the Browns, accounting for 201 total yards from scrimmage and scoring a touchdown on the last play of the first half with a 1-yard run.

Indianapolis is playing just its third Thanksgiving game. It's 2-0 on this holiday, winning at Detroit in 2004 and Atlanta in 2007. ... Pittsburgh LB James Harrison set the franchise's all-time sacks record Sunday in Cleveland, taking Cody Kessler down to give him 77.5 sacks in his career and passing Jason Gildon.
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Free NFL Picks: Pittsburgh Steelers at Indianapolis Colts Odds & Predictions
by Alan Matthews

While I'm sure the players themselves don't like playing on the Thanksgiving holiday, many owners around the NFL weren't happy that Detroit and Dallas got the national spotlight to themselves for a Turkey Day home game over the years. Well, the Lions and Cowboys were never about to give those up, and you don't want to rile up Dallas owner Jerry Jones. So the NFL a decade ago added a third game on the holiday, a prime-time matchup that will rotate around the league.

This Thanksgiving night's matchup looked like a great one between the Steelers and Colts and quarterbacks Ben Roethlisberger and Andrew Luck -- but it's not looking good for Luck to play due to a concussion. I'll get into that in a minute.

It's certainly an important game for both. The Steelers (5-5) were preseason favorites to win the AFC North and are currently tied with Baltimore atop the division. It might be division title or bust for those two as they are each two games behind the two current wild-card teams in the AFC, 7-3 Kansas City and Denver. Pittsburgh currently loses the head-to-head tiebreaker with Baltimore but hosts the Ravens on Christmas afternoon. This starts a tough three-game stretch against playoff-caliber teams for Pittsburgh with a home game vs. the Giants in Week 13 and a trip to Buffalo in Week 14. But the good news is that the Steelers close the season at home against pitiful Cleveland.

The Colts (5-5) were preseason favorites to win the AFC South, and they are now just a game behind Houston after the Texans were beaten by Oakland in Mexico City on Monday night (I recommended the Raiders to cover on my MNF preview and they did). Indy currently loses the head-to-head tiebreaker with the Texans but hosts Houston in Week 14. The Colts' season likely will be decided there and the following two weeks in Minnesota and in Oakland.

Steelers at Colts Betting Story Lines

It's the eighth all-time Thanksgiving game for Pittsburgh, which is 1-6 in its previous seven. The Steelers last played on the holiday in 2013 and lost a close game to Baltimore. Indianapolis is playing on Turkey Day for the fourth time and first since 2007 and is 2-0-1.

Indianapolis came out of its bye week on Sunday and beat Tennessee 24-17 for its second straight win and 11th in a row over the Titans -- Luck has never lost to them. The Colts jumped up 21-0 early in the second quarter on Luck's second TD pass of the game and basically held on. Whenever Luck was concussed, and he's currently in the league's protocol and thus highly unlikely to be ready for a quick turnaround game, he never came out. Luck was sacked twice and hit several other times behind his weak offensive line. The thinking is that Luck suffered the concussion when Titans defensive tackle Austin Johnson landed on top of him after recording a sack with 11:46 remaining in the game. Apparently Luck didn't start showing symptoms until after the game, so that's why he was never checked out on the sideline.

So presumably it will be Scott Tolzien under center on Thursday. He is 56-of-91 for 721 yards with a touchdown and five interceptions in six NFL career appearances. He has attempted only one pass since the 2013 season. Incidentally, starting safety Clayton Geathers also suffered a concussion vs. the Titans so he's surely out as well. Colts kicker Adam Vinatieri missed a 42-yard field goal on Sunday, snapping an NFL record of 44 consecutive made field goals.

Pittsburgh ended a puzzling four-game losing streak with a 24-9 victory at Cleveland on Sunday. Obviously any win in the NFL is a good victory, but only 24 points on that defense? It was the fewest points the Browns have given up all year. Ben Roethlisberger threw for only 167 yards with no TDs, but the running game was working with Le'Veon Bell carrying 28 times for 146 yards and a TD. He also had eight catches for 55 yards. Linebacker James Harrison (77.5 sacks) set the Steelers' all-time sack record in the contest, surpassing Jason Gildon (77).

Steelers at Colts Betting Odds and Trends

I've seen this line at -3 at many books and as high as 7 at some of other sportsbooks listed at Doc's. I've also seen totals anywhere from 50.5 to 54. I'm going to assume this line is at 7 because I don't see Luck playing.

Pittsburgh is 5-5 against the spread this season (2-3 on road) and 3-7 "over/under" (1-4 on road). Indianapolis is 5-4-1 ATS (3-2 at home) and 7-3 O/U (2-3 at home). The Steelers are 2-8 ATS in their past 10 in November. The Colts have covered their past eight in November. They are 12-1-1 ATS in their past 14 on Thursday. Indy is 1-3-1 ATS in its past five after a win. The under is 7-2 in the Steelers' past nine on Thursday. The over is 7-2 in the Colts' past nine on Thursday. The over is 4-0 in the past four meetings.

Steelers at Colts Betting Prediction

Other than a Week 1 win in Washington, the Pittsburgh offense has struggled on the road this year. But this Colts team hasn't been able to stop Big Ben & Co. of late. The Steelers embarrassed the Colts 51-34 in 2014 and followed it up with a 45-10 victory last season. Roethlisberger has gone 64-for-88 for 886 yards with 10 touchdowns, no interceptions and no sacks in those two.

The Colts will honor recent Pro Football Hall of Fame inductees Tony Dungy and Marvin Harrison at halftime. I might have picked Indy to win with Luck, but this just isn't a good team without him. I'm sure you will be able to find a 6.5-point alternate line, so give that. Go under the total as I have little confidence in Tolzien doing much.
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Thanksgiving Day Tips
By Kevin Rogers

Vikings at Lions (-2 ½, 41 ½) – 12:30 PM EST – CBS

Minnesota
Record: 6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS, 6-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 30/1

Detroit
Record: 6-4 SU, 6-4 ATS, 6-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1

LAST WEEK

The Vikings snapped a four-game losing streak in last Sunday’s 30-24 home triumph over the Cardinals as two-point favorites. Minnesota’s offense has struggled all season as the Vikings relied on an interception return and a kickoff return for touchdowns to account for nearly half their points. The Vikings racked up 217 yards offensively, but intercepted Carson Palmer twice to improve to 4-1 at home this season.

The Lions won their sixth game this season when trailing at some point in the fourth quarter, knocking off the Jaguars, 26-19. Detroit picked up a late cover as 5 ½-point favorites with a field goal in the final minute as the Lions returned a punt and an interception for scores. Detroit’s rushing attack was limited to 14 yards on 21 carries, while quarterback Matthew Stafford threw for 278 yards and has thrown only one total interception in five games at Ford Field (none in last four).

SERIES HISTORY

These two NFC North rivals met in Week 9 at U.S. Bank Stadium as Detroit left Minnesota with a 22-16 overtime victory as 4 ½-point underdogs. Stafford connected with wide receiver Golden Tate for a 28-yard touchdown in OT to give Detroit only its third win at Minnesota in the last 10 trips. The Vikings outgained the Lions, 337-311, the only time Minnesota has outgained an opponent in the past four contests. Since 2012, these teams have split four matchups at Ford Field, as the Vikings beat the Lions last season in Detroit, 28-19.

GETTING DEFENSIVE

The Lions are riding a four-game UNDER streak, while not allowing more than 20 points in any of their past four contests. Since the start of last season, Detroit has hit the OVER in eight of its last 12 games at Ford Field, but five of the past six matchups between the Lions and Vikings have finished UNDER the total.

TURKEY TIME

From 2004-2012, Detroit dropped nine consecutive games on Thanksgiving. However, the Lions have turned things around lately by winning three straight on Turkey Day, including a 45-14 blowout of the Eagles in 2015. The Vikings are visiting Detroit on Thanksgiving for the first time since 1995 when the Lions outlasted Minnesota in a 44-38 shootout.

PROPS – According to Las Vegas Westgate Superbook

Minnesota

S. Bradford – Total Completions
23 – OVER (-110)
23 – UNDER (-110)

S. Bradford – Total Touchdowns + Interceptions
2 – OVER (+130)
2 – UNDER (-150)

S. Diggs – Total Receiving Yards
75 ½ - OVER (-110)
75 ½ - UNDER (-110)

Detroit

M. Stafford – Total Gross Passing Yards
255 ½ - OVER (-110)
255 ½ - UNDER (-110)

M. Stafford – Total Touchdown Passes
1 ½ - OVER (-120)
1 ½ - UNDER (EVEN)

M. Jones, Jr. – Total Receiving Yards
51 ½ - OVER (-110)
51 ½ - UNDER (-110)

Redskins at Cowboys (-7, 52) – 4:30 PM EST – FOX

Washington
Record: 6-3-1 SU, 7-3 ATS, 8-2 OVER
Super Bowl Odds: 40/1

Dallas
Record: 9-1 SU, 9-1 ATS, 6-4 UNDER
Super Bowl Odds: 11/2

LAST WEEK

The Redskins began the season at 0-2, but Washington has won six of its last eight games to move into the second Wild Card position in the NFC. Last Sunday night, the Redskins chased the Packers, 42-24 to score a season-high in points, while covering as three-point favorites. Washington racked up over 500 yards of offense, including 373 yards and three touchdown passes from quarterback Kirk Cousins. Rookie running back Robert Kelley found the end zone three times as the former Tulane standout eclipsed the 87-yard mark for the third straight contest.

Dallas continues to win behind its rookie duo of Dak Prescott and Ezekiel Elliott as the Cowboys pulled away from the Ravens, 27-17 as seven-point home favorites. Prescott picked up his fifth consecutive multi-touchdown passing game with three touchdown tosses, including two to wide receiver Dez Bryant. Elliott finished three yards shy of 100 yards rushing as the Rookie of the Year candidate leads the NFL in rushing with 1,102 yards. Since losing the opener to the Giants, the Cowboys have won and covered their last four games at AT&T Stadium.

SERIES HISTORY

The road team has won each of the past six meetings between these NFC East rivals, including a Week 2 triumph by Dallas at FedEx Field. The Cowboys rallied past the Redskins, 27-23 to cash outright as 3 ½-point underdogs, as the two teams went back and forth after Dallas built an early 10-0 lead. Former Redskins’ running back Alfred Morris gave the Cowboys a 27-23 lead with less than five minutes left on a four-yard touchdown run. Both quarterbacks played well as Cousins threw for 364 yards and a touchdown, while Prescott picked up his first NFL win by racking up 292 yards through the air.

OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS

The Redskins have been one of the top OVER teams in the league by cashing in eight of 10 games, but both UNDERS have come away from FedEx Field. The Cowboys are riding a 5-2 run to the UNDER the last seven contests, including 2-1 the last three at home.

TURKEY TIME

Dallas rode a four-game winning streak from 2006-2010 on Thanksgiving Day, but the Cowboys have lost four of their last six on this holiday. The Panthers ripped the Cowboys last Thanksgiving, 33-14, the second straight Turkey Day defeat by double-digits. Washington shocked Dallas in its previous Thanksgiving meeting in 2012 by a 38-31 count as Robert Griffin III torched the Cowboys for 304 yards and four touchdown passes.

PROPS – According to Las Vegas Westgate Superbook

Washington

K. Cousins – Total Completions
26 – OVER (-110)
26 – UNDER (-110)

K. Cousins – Total Touchdown Passes
1 ½ - OVER (-150)
1 ½ - UNDER (+130)

J. Crowder – Total Receiving Yards
53 ½ - OVER (-110)
53 ½ - UNDER (-110)

Dallas

D. Prescott – Total Completions
21 ½ - OVER (-110)
21 ½ - UNDER (-110)

D. Prescott – Total Touchdown Passes
1 ½ - OVER (-150)
1 ½ - UNDER (+130)

E. Elliott – Total Rushing Yards
105 ½ - OVER (-110)
105 ½ - UNDER (-110)
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Tech Trends - Week 12
By Bruce Marshall

Thursday, Nov. 24

MINNESOTA at DETROIT (CBS, 12:30 p.m. ET)
Vikes 1-4 SU and vs. line last 5 TY after 19-3 vs. spread previous 22. Lions 5-2-2 vs. line last 9 at Ford Field. Lions have won and covered last three on Thanksgiving after losing and failing to cover previous nine on Turkey Day!
Tech Edge: Lions and “under,” based on team and “totals” trends.

WASHINGTON at DALLAS (FOX, 4:30 p.m. ET)
Dak 9-0-1 vs. line TY, but Skins 11-3 last 14 vs. spread in reg. season. Skins also “over” 13-2 last 15 since late 2015. Skins 9-3 vs. line last 12 in series and have won outright last two at Jerry Jones/AT&T.
Tech Edge: “Over,” based on “totals” trends.

PITTSBURGH at INDIANAPOLIS (NBC, 8:30 p.m. ET)
Steel on 1-4 SU and vs. line last 5, Colts 8-1 last 9 as home dog. Series “over” last two years and 4-0 last four. Indy “over” 8-3 last 11.
Tech Edge: “Over” and Colts, based on “totals” and team trends.
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
NFL

Week 12

Thanksgiving Thursday

Vikings (6-4) @ Lions (6-4)— Battle for first place in NFC North. Detroit kicked 58-yard FG on last play of regulation, won first meeting 22-16 in OT at Minnesota three weeks ago. This rivalry has been swept in four of last five years; Lions are 7-5 in last 12 games with Vikings, 4-2 in last six played here. Minnesota snapped 4-game skid with win over Arizona; they’ve scored a TD on defense/special teams in 4 of their 6 wins. Vikings lost last three road games, by 11-10-6 points- they’re 1-1 as road dogs. All 10 Detroit games were decided by 7 or less points; Lions trailed all 10 games in 4th quarter- they’re 4-1 at home, 2-2 as home favorites. Underdogs are 4-2 vs spread in NFC North divisional games this year. Last four Detroit games stayed; under total; under is 4-1 in Viking road games.

Redskins (6-3-1) @ Cowboys (9-1)— Two hot teams; Washington is 6-1-1 in last eight games, Dallas has won/covered nine straight games. Really short week for Redskins, who have long road trip, plus they played Sunday NIGHT. This is only 4th true road game for Washington; they are 2-1 in first three, all decided by 6 or less points- two of those were in New Jersey/Baltimore, very short trips- they also had neutral field game in London. Dallas hasn’t lost since Opening Night vs Giants; they’re 3-1 as home favorites this year. Cowboy opponents are just 8 for last 28 on third down. Underdogs are 4-2 vs spread in NFC East divisional games. Over is 4-1 in last five Redskin games, 2-5 in last seven Dallas games.

Steelers (5-5) @ Colts (5-5)— Colt QB Luck had concussion in win over Titans; check status for this game; his backup is Tolzien (0-1-1 as NFL starter, with ’13 Packers). Pitt is 13-2 in last 15 series games, winning last two 51-34/45-10; they outgained Colts 522-240 in LY’s game. Steelers won three of last four visits here, but last one was in 2011. Pitt snapped 4-game skid with lackluster 24-9 win in Cleveland; they’re 2-3 on road, with losses by 31-15-7 points. Only one of 10 Steeler games was decided by less than 7 points. Indy won three of last four games, is 3-2 at home, 2-2-1 vs spread as an underdog this year. NFC North teams are 8-18 vs spread in non-divisional games, 4-10 on road. AFC South teams are 13-14 vs spread, 7-7 at home. Steelers allowed 16 or less points in their wins, 21+ in their losses.
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
At the Gate - Thursday

It’s Thanksgiving Day and we have plenty of good racing today including a nine-race card at Aqueduct with an early post time of 11:50 ET. We have three stakes on tap this afternoon before the effects of Tryptophan kicks in.

The stakes action at the Big A starts early in the third race with a field of six going 1 1/16 miles on turf in the $125,000 Gio Ponti.

A son of Gio Ponti may get the job done. I like Italian Charm at his 5-1 morning line. The colt has won three of his first four career starts and makes his stakes debut this afternoon.

The fifth race on the card is the $100,000 Furlough for juvenile fillies that will go six furlongs on the main track.

Six go to the post led by Eloquent Riddle, the even money morning line favorite who will be saddled by trainer Chad Brown. She comes off a third-place finish in the Tempted (G3) in her last outing.

The traditional Turkey Day feature is the $200,000 Fall Highweight Handicap (G3) which drew a field of nine older runners that will go six furlongs on the main track.

Stallwalkin’ Dude is the 2-1 morning line favorite and will carry 134 pounds. The David Jacobson trainee was a sharp winner of the Bold Ruler Handicap (G3) in his last start.

Coming up on Friday we will take a look at the $500,000 Clark Handicap (G1) from Churchill Downs which drew a solid field of older runners including Noble Bird, Hoppertunity and Effinex.

Saturday, we have a pair of Road to the Kentucky Derby points races—the $300,000 Remsen (G2) at Aqueduct and the Kentucky Jockey Club (G2) at Churchill Downs.

In addition, we have a strong field lining up for the $500,000 Cigar Mile (G1) at the Big A along with the $250,000 Comely (G3) and $300,000 Demoiselle (G2).


Here is the opening race from Aqueduct to get the day off to a good start:

AQU Race 1 Alw---s (11:50 ET)
#2 Three to Thirteen 3-1
#6 Always a Suspect 5-2
#3 Caledonian 5-1
#4 Breeze Burner 2-1

Analysis: Three to Thirteen set the early fractions and just held on to break his maiden last out against state bred $40,000 maiden claimers in his first start for a tag. He did not care for turf two back and had some trouble in his first two starts including dumping his jock three back. He draws the rail and owns solid early and mid pace numbers.

Always a Suspect did not fire in his debut on turf and came back with his maiden breaker last out in the mud in a race taken off the turf and tagged. Only our top pick earned a higher last out speed fig and this guy came back with a good breeze on Nov. 8 and looks capable of moving forward again in his first start over a fast dirt surface here.

Wagering
WIN: #2 to win at 2-1 or better.
EX: 2,6 / 2,3,6
TRI: no play

Today’s Featured Race of the Day from Aqueduct:

AQU Race 8 The Fall Highweight Hcp G3 (3:20 ET)
#9 Stallwalkin' Dude 2-1
#1 Weekend Hideaway 7-2
#3 Ready for Rye 5-1
#6 Angry Moon 4-1

Analysis: Stallwalkin' Dude made a good late rally drew clear late to win the Bold Ruler 'Cap (G3) last out at Belmont Park going seven furlongs. The gelding earned a career top speed fig two back in a runner up finish in the Vosburgh (G1) behind Joking in the mud. The Jacobson trainee comes in here in the best form of his career and he can handle the cut back to six furlongs and the extra weight.

Weekend Hideaway pressed the early pace and battled on gamely in the stretch in the sloppy state bred Hudson last out at Belmont Park. The winner Breakin Fever came back to beat non-conditioned allowance foes at Finger Lakes in his next outing with a 97 Beyer. The six-year-old is also entered in Wednesday night's Fabulous Strike at Penn. He draws the rail and owns solid early and mid pace numbers. He was just a length behind our top pick two back in a third place finish in the Vosburgh.

Wagering
WIN: #9 to win at 9-5 or better.
EX: 1,9 / 1,3,6,9
TRI: 1,9 / 1,3,6,9 / 1,3,6,7,9

Live Longshots:
These are price plays for exotic players looking to find a couple of extra contenders to use in their trifecta and superfecta wagers. Or for those with smaller bankrolls, you might want to get in a small win-place wager.

Aqueduct
R4: #4 Dark as Midnight 20-1
R5: #1 Yorkiepoo Princess 8-1
R5: #4 Whistle Stop 15-1
R6: #8 Priest N the rabbi 8-1
R9: #8 J C My Way 30-1

Good luck today!
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Flamboro Downs

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 11 - Post: 9:20 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 65 - Purse:$7200 - FILLIES & MARES - N/W $12500. LIFETIME
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 5 TAURIEL 5/2
# 4 POETIC DREAM 2/1
# 2 MAKE A SHADOW 6/1

After thorough analysis by the consortium, TAURIEL comes out as the top pick. She's squaring off in fine form, recording very strong speed ratings. An excellent pick. Seems to have a good class edge based on the field of horses she has faced. The panel of smart guys noted a huge effort out of this interesting entrant last time. Looking for a duplicate of that to score. POETIC DREAM - This horse and Paulic have some sort of connection going. In the money clip for this twosome is high. The consortium noted a very compelling effort out of this entrant last time. Looking for a repeat of that to take the whole enchilada. MAKE A SHADOW - Within the recent past McClure has been tearing it up, which may give the edge to this mare in this one. Look for Mainguy and this contender to end up in the winner's circle for this one. Great in the money percentage for the trainer/horse combo.
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Rideau Carleton

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.

Race 2 - Post: 6:50 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 61 - Purse:$4650 - NW $7,500
CONSORTIUM*CHOICES

# 1 NOPLAY 2/1
# 4 SPOIL SPORT 5/1
# 6 BRADYS PLAY 7/1

All signs point to NOPLAY for the pick. Could unquestionably better this group of horses given the 66 TrackMaster Speed Rating achieved in his most recent race. When Pouliot drives this horse you can bet they'll be in the top 3, figures show them there 100 percent of the time. Look for Plourde and this interesting entrant to dominate in here. Exemplary in the money figure for the trainer/horse partnership. SPOIL SPORT - Can't forget based on speed ratings which have been top notch (66 avg) recently. Comes into this contest with really strong TrackMaster class stats relative to the field of horses - could be worth a shot. BRADYS PLAY - Recent stats for the driver - 23 percent win - make this gelding a clear choice in the pack.
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Golden Gate Fields

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 4 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $9000 Class Rating: 88

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NOT WON A RACE SINCE AUGUST 31 OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON FOUR RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; OLDER, 125 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $4,000


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 1 ANYA AMASOVA 5/2

# 3 GIANNONATTI 4/1

# 2 LACEY'S RAINBOW 7/2

I think ANYA AMASOVA is a very good choice. Lately Gonzalez has been hot which may give the edge to this mare. Looks very good against this group and will almost certainly be one of the leaders. Seems to have a competitive class edge based on the recent company kept. GIANNONATTI - This mare is a key contender based on her earnings per start in dirt sprint contests. This equine could stun this field of horses at a nice price. LACEY'S RAINBOW - Posted a very good speed rating last time out. Looks formidable for the conditions of this contest today, showing solid numbers in dirt sprint races as of late.
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Handicapped by The Walker Group at Laurel

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 9 - Allowance - 8.5f on the Dirt. Purse: $35000 Class Rating: 91

FOR REGISTERED MARYLAND BRED THREE YEAR OLDS AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON A RACE OTHER THAN MAIDEN, CLAIMING OR STARTER OR WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 122 LBS.; WEIGHT, 124 LBS. NON-WINNERS OF A RACE OTHER THAN CLAIMING AT A MILE OR OVER SINCE SEPTEMBER 24 ALLOWED 2 LBS. SUCH A RACE SINCE AUGUST 24 ALLOWED 4 LBS.


RECOMMENDED*CHOICES


# 4 ENOUGH IS ENOUGH 3/1

# 3 I'M MR. BLUE 8/1

# 7 SLICK WILLIAM 12/1

My pick here is ENOUGH IS ENOUGH. This gelding has a good winning percentage in dirt route races. Put up a quite good speed figure last time out. Is a strong contender based on figs garnered lately under today's conditions. I'M MR. BLUE - He should be carefully examined given the very good speed figures. The average Equibase class rating alone makes this one a key contender.
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Aqueduct - Race #6 - Post: 2:20pm - Claiming - 8.5 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $34,000 Class Rating: 92

Rating:

#1 MARKET STRENGTH (ML=3/1)
#10 PAR (ML=4/1)
#8 PRIEST N THE RABBI (ML=8/1)


MARKET STRENGTH - Taking this jockey/handler combination is a good decision. It looks like Carmouche had to know this colt on Oct 19th when riding him for the initial time. Back on again today. Horses out of the barn of Gargan have been strong on the grass. Should do well. This horse has recorded the best recent turf Equibase speed figure at the dist-surf. PAR - Faced tougher in the last race at Belmont Park. Based on Equibase class figures, this is a weaker group, so I will put this one on my list of probable winners in this race. PRIEST N THE RABBI - The jock/trainer twosome of Gallardo and Asmussen has a strong ROI together. I seem to always make money betting Asmussen horses on the turf. That barn has a powerful win percent for this distance/surface. Looking like a possible overlay today at morning line odds of 8/1. Finished fourth in last race at Aqueduct but was close at the wire.

Vulnerable Contenders: #15 THAT MAKES SENSE (ML=5/2), #1A MR. SAM (ML=3/1), #11 TYR (ML=7/2),

THAT MAKES SENSE - Didn't land in the top three on September 24th at Belmont Park. Followed it up with another less than stellar effort. When scrutinizing today's Equibase class figure, he will have to garner a much better speed fig than last out to be competitive in this turf route. MR. SAM - Tough to support any horse that runs as well as he did and then lays up and doesn't workout at all. TYR - Pace makes the race. Hard for this speedball to be able to deal with the suicidal fractions from the rest of this bunch.

GUEST COMMENTARY: The Brain - PRIEST N THE RABBI - According to my data, dropped to a more suitable class last out. Meeting the same type of field today. Should perform well.*
*


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Bet on #1 Entry to win if we can get at least 2/1 odds

EXACTA WAGERS:

1 with [8,10]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [1,8,10] Total Cost: $6

** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Churchill Downs - Race #8 - Post: 2:54pm - Maiden Special - 9.0 furlongs on the Turf. Purse: $58,000 Class Rating: 93

Rating:

#7 SISTINE SISTA (ML=5/1)
#9 PAY THE KITTEN (ML=5/1)
#11 JOYFUL JOYFUL (ML=10/1)


SISTINE SISTA - I like the piece of information that this filly's last figure, 93, is tops in this group. Ranks at the top in earnings per race. A dominant performance right here in this race can increase that bankroll. PAY THE KITTEN - I seem to always make money betting Maker horses on the grass. That barn has a dominant win pct for this distance/surface. JOYFUL JOYFUL - I like to wager on this handicapping theory, a thoroughbred coming back off a solid outing within the last month.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 SIGHT READING (ML=4/1), #1A BROOKS HOUSE (ML=4/1), #10 LEMON SQUEEZE (ML=6/1),

SIGHT READING - Tough to invest in any horse to turn things around if there is no value to taking the chance. The speed fig last time around the track doesn't fit very well in this event when I look at the class rating of today's event. Mark this horse as a likely underlay. BROOKS HOUSE - This stretch-runner should have a rough go of it to get up in time with an absence of pace in this race. When checking today's class rating, she will have to earn a much better speed figure than in the last race to be competitive in this turf route. LEMON SQUEEZE - This filly didn't do much for me last time. This entrant ran a common speed rating last out. She shouldn't show signs of improvement and will likely get beat today running that figure.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:

Put your money on #7 SISTINE SISTA on the nose if you can get odds of 2/1 or more

EXACTA WAGERS:

7 with [9,11]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:

Box [7,9,11] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:

Pass
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Handicapped by Rick Needham at Aqueduct

RACE #8 -AQUEDUCT - 3:20 PM EASTERN POST

The Fall Highweight Handicap

6.0 FURLONGS DIRT GRADE III THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STAKES $200.000.00 PURSE

#9 STALLWALKIN' DUDE
#1 WEEKEND HIDEAWAY
#3 READY FOR RYE
#6 ANGRY MOON

The Fall Highweight Handicap was inaugurated at Belmont Park in 1914. Now restricted to 3-year-olds and up, this race was open to all ages prior to 1959. The inaugural running was won by the 2-year-old-filly Comely. The Racing Secretary must assign at least 140 pounds to the top-weighted horse in this event. Here in the 103rd running of The Highweight, #9 STALLWALKIN' DUDE has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in each of his last four outings, winning twice in this recent streak of racing consistency. Jockey Irad Ortiz and Trainer David Jacobson send him to the post ... they've hit the board with 67% of their entries saddled as a team to date. #1 WEEKEND HIDEAWAY has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in four of her respective last five outings, winning in both his 3rd and 5th races back.
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Woodbine Harness: Thursday 11/24 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF

Race 1 - $40,000 Guaranteed Pick Five Pool

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

PICK 5: 3,4,8/9/2,4,6/1,4,5/3,5,8 = $16.20

EARLY PICK 4: 1,4,5/3,5,8/1,3,9/3 = $27

LATE PICK 4: 3/2,7,10/1,4,7,10/2,3,7 = $36

MEET STATS: 19 - 85 / $120.00 BEST BETS: 4 - 8 / $11.90

SPOT PLAYS: 0 - 8 / $0.00

Best Bet: HOOTER SHOOTER (7th)

Spot Play: BADSTORMANYPORT (1st)


Race 1

(3) BADSTORMANYPORT really cranked it up in his November 17th qualifier. He looks ready to produce a good effort vs. a suspect group here. (4) TOY COP's early speed is dangerous as he has been lasting longer on the lead recently. (8) EAS IDEAL gets hammered at the windows every week, but he did show some life late in the mile last time. (9) MR MATCH ON BEACH could wake up here dropping from the Autumn series.

Race 2

(9) ANDOVERS CHOICE goes from Fontaine to Moreau here, which has been a profitable angle so far at this meet. (1) STORMONT DUNDAS was close to his initial win last time, but was overtaken by the pocket-sitter late. His presence here could provide some value for the choice. (2) MISTER BLUES wouldn't need to improve much on his qualifiers to compete. (5) GOLDEN MAN is a two-time winner facing foes that are winless in more than 100 starts combined. He isn't impossible here.

Race 3

(2) FIVE BELOW goes for the top barn here off a decent qualifier. There isn't much to beat here if Moreau has this gelding close to being right. (6) ENTRANCED's first-over move was repelled by a strong class-dropping winner last time, but that was an improved performance and he should be a player here. (4) AMITYVILLE LINDY should be heard from on the class drop if he stays trotting. (7) CLASS ME NICE could sneak into the tri or super here at a big price.

Race 4

(5) TWO SIDES OF LOVE should go forward off her sharp debut and score here. (1) SUNSET FILLY is the main danger if she stays flat this time. (4) WARAWEE STAR is worth a look on the barn change coming off a break. Notice the sharp final 1/4 in her November 17th qualifier. (2) DORABELLA seems likely to grab a minor share.

Race 5

(3) P H BLACKJACK comes up tagged after one start vs. much tougher since shipping west. He should fit this class and Hudon will likely put him into play early. (5) SUTTON SEELSTER shows a big win two back, the only time he was entered for a tag; using. (8) IMSPORTY will be passing horses late, as is typical for him. (2) NEW STANDARD is another that figures to land on the fringes again.

Race 6

(1) COVERT OPERATIVE closed well last week despite having missed a month's action and now he picks up a catch driver here; top call. (3) LEXUS ROCKY won in a similar class three back then drew the 10-hole twice and went for two non-productive spins of the oval. He is in with a good chance. (9) HUBBY NUMBER ONE raced decently last time chasing a strong winner. He could crack the exotics at a price. (6) ROCKIN WITH DEWEY moves up off a sharp score but she isn't likely to lead unbothered this time.

Race 7

(3) HOOTER SHOOTER paced a big mile on the rim last time. Tonight's the night for his maiden score. (6) ABOUT A BOY showed some late interest in the same race in his debut effort. If he leaves better here, he should be much closer at the wire. (1) SPANIARD can follow along for a minor share. (2) D M REACHER races better on fast tracks and he should get one here.

Race 8

(2) ESCUELA has been getting closer and she looks as good as any in this wide-open low level conditioned trot. (7) CROWN CLASSIC was held up in traffic when making her move last time, which may have cost her a win. She rates highly here. (10) GRANA PADANNO drops in class again and he is obviously one of the best in here but he needs to overcome his post. (3) HLDONTGHTTOYURDREAMS raced better last time, but he was over bet then and could also be over bet here on the perceived 'back class' angle.

Race 9

(7) SHADOW MARGEAUX improved sharply with McNair driving for the first time last week. He sticks here. Expect a more aggressive steer this time. (4) ST LADS LOTTO made a couple of moves from the worst post in an effort that is probably better than it looks on paper; now he moves inside; using. (10) HES A SENSATION takes a massive class drop here, but post 10 isn't good for him if he employs his usual racing style; your call. (1) CS EYE could improve sharply in his second start off a break; consider for Pick 4 tickets.

Race 10

(3) CRANKIN IT UP ships in and goes for Weller, who should have him ready to roll; top call. (2) SCOTTY MACH N figures to improve his chances with a better start from a better post; using. (7) JAC SPADE is racing well as he typically does at this winter meet. It wouldn't be a shock if he passed them all down the lane. (5) CURATOR will be passing horses late for a slice. (10) BEIBER HANOVER re-qualified nicely which may be an indication that Auciello has him fixed up. If he has done so, he should make the ticket.
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
SPOT PLAYS

For Thursday

TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE

Aqueduct (8th) Weekend Hideaway, 7-2
(9th) Aussie Awakening, 3-1


Churchill Downs (6th) Rhythm Park, 7-2
(8th) Sistine Sista, 5-1


Del Mar (3rd) Sky Preacher, 7-2
(4th) Heir of Storm, 7-2


Fair Grounds (2nd) Toughjudgement, 9-2
(5th) Idol Cat, 7-2


Golden Gate Fields (3rd) Dynamite Ride, 4-1
(5th) Later My Love, 3-1


Laurel Park (2nd) Northern Prancer, 4-1
(8th) Justcallme K L, 4-1
 
Joined
May 19, 2007
Messages
205,324
Tokens
Thursday’s six-pack

Six interesting college basketball scores from Wednesday:

—*Oklahoma State 97, Georgetown 70— Hoyas are a soft team.

— Louisville 68, Old Dominion 62 OT— Surprisingly tense game in the Bahamas.

— Cavaliers 137, Blazers 125- Kevin Love scored 34…..in the FIRST QUARTER!!!

— Oregon 79, UConn 69— Huskies are 1-4 vs D-I teams and now have injury issues; could be a long winter in Nutmeg State.

— Baylor 71, VCU 63— Bears play Michigan State today in semis at the Battle of Atlantis.

— North Carolina 71, Wisconsin 56— Tar Heels win Maui Classic; other three times they did that, they made the Final Four. Right now, they’re pretty clearly the best team in the country.
 

Forum statistics

Threads
1,120,945
Messages
13,589,107
Members
101,021
Latest member
bradduke112
The RX is the sports betting industry's leading information portal for bonuses, picks, and sportsbook reviews. Find the best deals offered by a sportsbook in your state and browse our free picks section.FacebookTwitterInstagramContact Usforum@therx.com