Thursday 10/1/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Twins (82-76) at Indians (78-79)

Game: 4
Venue: Progressive Field
Date: October 01, 2015 7:10 PM EDT

Tyler Duffey took a no-hitter into the sixth inning against the Cleveland Indians in August just one day after being called up from the minors.

The right-hander has proved Minnesota's most effective starter since then and will try to boost the Twins' playoff hopes with another stellar outing versus Cleveland on Thursday night.

Duffey (5-1, 3.14 ERA) was sent down after being tagged for six runs in two innings in his major league debut Aug. 5 in Toronto but got another chance 10 days later. He made the most of that opportunity by allowing just Francisco Lindor's double in a 4-1 victory.

Duffey is 5-0 with a 2.17 ERA in his last eight starts and has won each of his past three. He gave up two runs over six innings in a 6-2 victory in Detroit on Saturday.

"It's fun. It's everything you dream of to give your team a chance to win in big games," he told MLB's official website. "If you don't like pitching in this, you shouldn't be playing. So it's a lot of fun, and everyone is fired up and really going all out. That's what you gotta do this time of year."

A doubleheader split with Cleveland on Wednesday put the Twins (82-76) 1 1/2 games behind Houston for the AL's second wild card. The Los Angeles Angels are a half game back following their 8-7 loss to Oakland.

"The positive is we don't get swept," manager Paul Molitor said. 'The loss column is what matters at the end of the day come Sunday. We live another day. That's for sure."

The Indians (78-79) kept their faint hopes alive briefly with a 10-2 win in Wednesday's finale after losing 7-1 in the opener, but were eliminated from the postseason with Houston's 7-6 victory in Seattle.

'We can only do what we can do,' manager Terry Francona said. 'If you get eliminated, it doesn't give you the right to not show up for the rest of your games.'

Trevor Bauer (11-12, 4.69) will try to boost his club's spirits in his first start in two-plus weeks.

The inconsistent right-hander was sent to the bullpen following a 9-2 loss in Detroit on Sept. 13 that dropped him to 3-7 with a 6.32 ERA over 12 starts. Bauer made one relief appearance Sept. 19, pitching a scoreless inning in a 4-3 loss to the Chicago White Sox.

Bauer is getting another start because Cleveland is giving Josh Tomlin an extra day of rest.

"He's a work in progress," Francona said. "We've acknowledged that, but he's trying and will continue to. I think the biggest thing I've tried to express to him is, 'We're not trying to redo you. We're trying to just make adjustments as we go.'

"This start won't define his career, but heck yeah, I think it'll be really good for him."

Bauer is 1-3 with a 6.00 ERA in six career starts against Minnesota and earned that lone win in a 17-4 rout Aug. 8, allowing four runs in 6 1-3 innings while fanning eight.

Torii Hunter is 3 for 5 with a home run and a double against Bauer this season. He's 6 for 14 with two homers and two doubles lifetime.

Kurt Suzuki has two doubles and a homer in six at-bats in this matchup this year.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Marlins (69-89) at Rays (77-81)

Game: 3
Venue: Tropicana Field
Date: October 01, 2015 7:10 PM EDT

Though they've failed to meet expectations this season, a strong finish and Jose Fernandez's return has the Miami Marlins optimistic about a turnaround in 2016.

Fernandez vies to remain unbeaten since his comeback from Tommy John surgery and prevent the Tampa Bay Rays from a three-game sweep Thursday night.

Fernandez is 6-0 with a 2.91 ERA in 10 starts following his 14-month recovery, though he endured his worst outing of the season Friday against Atlanta. The 2013 NL Rookie of the Year was reached for six runs and nine hits in five innings, but received plenty of offensive support in a 12-11 victory to set an MLB record with his 18th consecutive winning decision at home to begin a career.

The Tampa high school product hasn't been as good on the road, sporting a 3.82 career ERA compared to a 1.40 mark at Marlins Park. Fernandez also struggled in his lone start at Tropicana Field, surrendering seven runs - four earned - in 3 1-3 innings of a 10-6 loss May 27, 2013.

Fernandez is 2-0 with a 4.60 ERA in three starts after a six-week absence caused by a biceps strain.

"When he pitches, the team is different," Marlins closer A.J. Ramos said. "He brings something to this team that nobody can explain."

Miami (69-89) is 17-10 since Aug. 31 and had won five straight prior to a 4-2 loss in Monday's opener. Drew Smyly led the Rays to a 6-4 victory Tuesday, yielding a run and three hits with eight strikeouts over six innings.

Grady Sizemore delivered a three-run double and finished 2 for 4 for Tampa Bay (77-81), which has won four of the five season meetings to claim the Citrus Series for the fourth time in five years.

He's 8 for 17 with nine RBIs during a six-game hitting streak.

While Fernandez aims to keep his unblemished record intact, Jake Odorizzi (8-9, 3.49) hopes to recapture his early-season form in his 2015 finale.

After posting a 3.02 ERA through his first 21 starts, Odorizzi has a 5.29 mark in his past six and has allowed eight runs and 15 hits over 10 2-3 innings in losing his last two. He permitted four runs in five innings during a 5-3 defeat at AL East champion Toronto Friday.

Odorizzi's struggles have extended to Tropicana Field, where he owns a 6.85 ERA over four outings after recording a 1.40 ERA through his first eight this season. Home runs have been a problem lately as well, as he's allowed eight in 29 1-3 September innings.

The right-hander has allowed 10 runs in nine innings in losing both previous starts against Miami, the last an 11-6 home defeat June 5, 2014.

Rays second baseman Logan Forsythe missed Wednesday's game after being hit by a pitch on his right foot in the opener. Nick Franklin started in his place and went 2 for 4 with a solo homer.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Angels (83-75) at Rangers (86-72)

Game: 1
Venue: Globe Life Park in Arlington
Date: October 01, 2015 8:05 PM EDT

Adrian Beltre has been instrumental to the Texas Rangers' recent success and that could lead to their first AL West title in four years.

It may also further damage the Los Angeles Angels' playoff hopes.

Beltre looks to continue his hot hitting as the Rangers attempt to close in on the division crown Thursday night against the Angels in the opener of this season-ending series with major postseason implications.

Texas (86-72) is atop the West by 2 1/2 games on Houston and three ahead of the Angels (83-75) heading into this four-game set. The Astros are idle until opening a three-game series with Arizona on Friday.

While the Rangers' chances of clinching the West are on hold, they can assure themselves of at least a wild-card spot with one more win.

"I think you can't help but feel it. We also believe in the fact that these guys are in the now ... no opportunity wasted," first-year manager Jeff Banister said. "They really don't get caught up with what's down the road, but I believe that it brings a sense of energy and a little added energy for us, and some added focus."

That's certainly true for Beltre, who's hitting .416 with four homers and 24 RBIs over the past 19 games. However, his impact has been clear in Texas' 13 victories over that stretch, batting .500 while hitting all of those homers and driving in all of those runs.

He came through again Wednesday, connecting for a two-run blast and a double in a 6-2 win over Detroit.

"The captain, the guy that sits right in the middle of our club, beacon that all these guys look towards," Banister said.

The Angels fell one-half game behind Houston in the race for the AL's second wild-card spot after losing 8-7 to Oakland on Wednesday. They committed a season-high four errors as their seven-game winning streak ended.

"We're a better team than that," said second baseman Johnny Giavotella, who had one of the errors. "To win a championship, you can't have those errors."

Mike Trout went 3 for 3 with his 41st homer Wednesday, giving him a .375 average with five home runs and 11 RBIs in the past 13 games. He's hitting .415 with five homers while plating 13 runs in 15 meetings with Texas this year.

Andrew Heaney (6-3, 3.29 ERA) takes the mound, and the rookie left-hander has a 2.12 ERA while not getting a decision in his last three starts. He allowed two runs in six innings before David Freese hit a walkoff homer in Saturday's 3-2 win over Seattle.

Heaney had the same line while earning a 13-7 home win over Texas on July 26.

He's 3-1 with a 2.23 ERA in seven road starts.

The Rangers turn to Derek Holland (3-3, 4.99), who is 0-2 with an 8.59 ERA over his last four starts after going 3-0 with a 2.15 ERA in his first four since returning from a shoulder injury.

The left-hander had a scare in the first inning Saturday, when he was hit in the left middle finger by a line drive just above his head. He remained in the game and allowed four runs and three homers in five innings while not getting a decision in a 9-7 loss at Houston.

"It gets better every day," Holland told MLB's official website of his sore finger.

Holland is 1-1 with a 6.68 ERA over his last five home starts against the Angels. He yielded one run in eight innings of a 2-1 victory at Los Angeles on Sept. 5.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Royals (91-67) at White Sox (74-84)

Game: 3
Venue: U.S. Cellular Field
Date: October 01, 2015 8:10 PM EDT

Though still trailing in the race for the AL's best record, the Kansas City Royals will begin the playoffs at home.

The defending AL champions resume their pursuit of the first goal in Thursday night's series finale against the host Chicago White Sox.

Kansas City (91-67) was able to gain ground with Wednesday's 5-3, 10-inning victory and the Blue Jays splitting a doubleheader at Baltimore. The result also assured the Royals home-field advantage for the division series and they sit one game back of Toronto for the league's top mark with four remaining.

The Royals, 51-30 at Kauffman Stadium, end the regular-season with a three-game set at wild-card contender Minnesota. Toronto visits Tampa Bay for three after Thursday's matchup with the Orioles.

'Obviously we would like home-field advantage throughout the whole entire postseason but just got to see how that plays out," first baseman Eric Hosmer said. "To have the first round at least at home is definitely big for us.'

After mustering 10 runs while losing four of five, Kansas City homered three times Wednesday, with Hosmer's two-run shot in the 10th providing the final margin.

'It was a huge hit for us,' manager Ned Yost said.

The Royals did have center fielder Lorenzo Cain exit in the seventh inning after fouling a ball off his right knee. The team termed him day to day with a contusion.

Chicago (74-84) has lost six of eight and attempts to bounce back behind John Danks (7-14, 4.53 ERA), who'll aim to continue his career success against Kansas City in his final 2015 appearance.

Danks improved to 10-2 with a 2.57 ERA in 21 starts against the Royals by tossing a seven-hitter in a 12-1 win at Kauffman Stadium on Sept. 4. The veteran left-hander is 5-0 with a 3.38 ERA in eight meetings at U.S. Cellular Field, where he's recorded a 1.63 ERA in six starts since the All-Star break. He threw six-plus innings in a 2-0 decision July 17 for his second home win over Kansas City this season.

Several Royals regulars have struggled against Danks. Mike Moustakas, who had a two-run homer Wednesday, is 3 for 22 and Salvador Perez 4 for 28 with two homers. Alcides Escobar is 5 for 30 with 10 strikeouts and Hosmer 2 for 14 this season.

Danks, who has been backed by three runs or less of support in six of his last nine starts, gave up two runs over six innings against the New York Yankees on Saturday but was saddled with a 2-1 loss.

Kris Medlen (5-2, 4.30) takes the mound for Kansas City looking to recapture his mid-September form. After not permitting an earned run across 11 1-3 innings in consecutive road wins over Cleveland and Detroit, he was reached for six and nine hits in 3 2-3 innings in Saturday's 9-5 home loss to the Indians.

Medlen owns a 1.13 ERA on the road and a 6.99 mark at home this season and has won all three of his visiting starts. He allowed season highs of seven runs and 11 hits in 5 2-3 innings when opposing Danks on Sept. 4.

Chicago's Jose Abreu homered Wednesday to join Albert Pujols and Ryan Braun as the only players to hit 30 in each of their first two seasons. He's one RBI shy of matching Pujols as the only ones with 100 and 30 homers over that span.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Rockies (66-92) at Diamondbacks (77-81)

Game: 3
Venue: Chase Field
Date: October 01, 2015 9:40 PM EDT

With Patrick Corbin feeling as though he's recaptured his impressive pre-injury form, his final start of 2015 is coming too soon.

He'll try to close his season on a strong note Thursday night against the visiting Colorado Rockies

Corbin (6-5, 3.28 ERA) was one of baseball's best pitchers for much of 2013, going 12-1 with a 2.31 ERA through his first 20 starts. He was diagnosed with a partial tear of his ulnar collateral ligament in spring training the next year and underwent Tommy John surgery, finally returning July 4 this year.

The left-hander again looks like the pitcher of two years ago, going 3-2 with a 2.27 ERA over his last six starts, even with a shaky performance when he gave up four runs over 4 1-3 innings in a 6-3 loss to the Los Angeles Dodgers last Thursday.

Corbin has still gone four straight starts without allowing a home run for the first time ever and owns a 5.6 strikeout-to-walk ratio in his last six games.

"I didn't really set any goals or anything like that. Just make sure everything was gold," he told MLB"s official website. "It's a bummer the season is coming to an end when I'm feeling really good. I feel like I'm pretty much back and really excited for next season."

Corbin is 5-1 with a 3.90 ERA in nine career starts against Colorado, winning both meetings this year. He hasn't lost to the Rockies since his first career matchup, May 16, 2012, and has baffled Colorado's two most powerful sluggers, holding Carlos Gonzalez and Nolan Arenado to a combined 5 for 26.

Neither team supplied much offense in Arizona's 3-1 victory Wednesday. They stranded a combined 19 runners and the Diamondbacks (77-81) won their third straight despite going 1 for 11 with runners in scoring position. Arizona had batted .380 in those situations over its previous seven home meetings with the Rockies.

"We left some runs out there," manager Chip Hale said. "We could have had two or three more, (if we were) situational hitting better, but there's a pitcher out there trying not to let you score and you've got to tip your cap sometimes."

For Colorado (66-92), Arenado hit his 40th double, joining Todd Helton, Ellis Burks and Larry Walker as the fourth player in franchise history with 40 homers, 40 doubles and 120 RBIs in a season.

DJ LeMahieu is 7 for 19 with a homer and two triples against Corbin.

David Hale (5-5, 6.01) comes off his first win as a starter since June 8 after limiting the Dodgers to one run over five innings in a 7-4 home victory Friday. He's filling in again for Yohan Flande, who may not pitch again this year due to a bruised knee.

Hale struggled in two earlier starts against the Diamondbacks this year, allowing a combined eight earned runs with six walks over 9 2-3 innings.

Rookie Socrates Brito was 1 for 5 with a double while filling in at leadoff for Arizona in place of Ender Inciarte, who was scratched from the lineup due to a bruised shin.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB

National League

Mets @ Phillies
Mets bullpen will handle this game.

Eickhoff is 1-0, 1.29 in his last three starts (over 4-3 in his MLB starts).

Mets won nine of last 12 games with Phillies (over 9-3); New York won four of last six games, scoring 44 runs- seven of last eight went over total. Philly lost seven of last twelve games (under 7-4 last 11).

Nationals @ Braves
Strasburg is 2-0, 1.17 in his last three starts (over 4-2 last six).

Weber is 0-2, 5.91 in his four MLB starts (over 2-2).

Washington lost seven of last nine games (under 4-1 last five). Braves lost three of last five games (over 5-2 last seven); they won last five at home, four by 2-1 scores, other one 2-0. Nats won four of last six games with Atlanta; home side won last eight series games.

Cubs @ Reds
Hammel is 1-1, 7.82 in his last three starts (over 4-1 last five).

Lamb is 0-1, 6,00 in his last three starts (over 4-1 last five).

Cubs won three of last four games with Cincinnati; six of last eight got over. Chicago is 9-4 in its last 13 games; seven of last eight stayed under total. Cincinnati lost its last 11 games, with six of last seven going over the total.

Brewers @ Padres
Jungmann is 0-2, 10.07 in his last four starts (over 5-0 last five).

Kennedy is 0-3, 9.15 in his last four starts (over 6-0-1 last seven).

Padres lost four of last five games; under is 3-0-1 in their last four. Milwaukee won last five games with San Diego (over 3-2-1 last six); Brewers are 5-2 in last seven games (under 4-2-2 last eight).

Dodgers @ Giants
Anderson is 0-1, 8.59 in his last three starts (over 5-0-1 last six).

This is Tim Hudson's last MLB start; he is 2-0, 2.55 in his last four starts (over is 5-3 in last eight).

Dodgers clinched NL West Wednesday; they won five of last seven games with Giants; under is 4-1 in last five series games. LA lost nine of last twelve games overall (over 6-4 last ten). Giants are 6-4 in last ten games, with six of last eight going over total.

Rockies @ Diamondbacks
Hale is 1-1, 6.75 in his last three starts.

Corbin is 3-2, 2.27 in his last six starts (under 5-1).

Arizona is 7-3 in its last ten games with Colorado; five of last six series games stayed under the total. Rockies won three of last five games (over is 7-5 in last twelve). D'backs are 8-4 in their last twelve gmes (under 8-4).


American League

Blue Jays @ Orioles
Hutchison is 0-2, 12.96 in his last two starts (over 6-2 last eight).

Wilson is 1-1, 5.00 in his last three starts (over 3-0).

Toronto clinched AL East last night; they're 4-1 in last five games with Baltimore (over 5-2 last seven). Blue Jays won seven of last nine games (over 3-1-1 last five). Orioles lost five of last six games; under is 5-3-1 in their last nine games.

Red Sox @ Bronx
Hill is 2-0, 1.17 in his three starts (under 3-0).

Sabathia is 1-1, 2.33 in his last three starts (under 4-1 last five).

Boston won last three games with New York; three of last four went over the total. Red Sox won six games in row, allowing ten runs; seven of their last nine stayed under the total. Bronx lost last three games, allowing 24 runs (under 5-3 last eight).

Twins @ Indians
Duffey is 3-0, 1.40 in his last three starts (over 5-2 last seven).

Bauer is 1-2, 10.32 in his last three starts (under 4-1 last five).

Twins won six of last eight games with Cleveland (under 6-2-1 last nine); Twins won seven of last ten games overall (under 7-4-1 last 12). Indians won four of last seven; under is 6-2-1 in their last nine.

Royals @ White Sox
Medlen is 2-1, 4.71 in his last four starts (over 5-2 last seven).

Danks is 0-2, 4.00 in his last three starts (over 5-2 last seven).

Royals lost four of last five games with Chicago; over is 4-2-1 in last seven in series. KC lost four of last six games (under 4-1-1). White Sox lost six of last eight games (under 8-1-1 in last ten games).

Angels @ Rangers
Heaney is 0-0, 2.12 in his last three starts (under 2-0-1).

Holland is 0-2, 8.59 in his last four starts (over 3-0 last three).

Angels won six of last nine games with Texas (under 3-0 last three); Halos won seven of their last eight games (over 4-2-1 last seven). Texas won six of its last nine games (over 8-2-1 last eleven).


Interleague

Marlins @ Rays
Fernandez is 3-0, 3.03 in his last six starts (over 4-1 last five).

Odorizzi is 1-1, 5.94 in his last three starts (over 2-0-1).

Marlins lost last four games with Tampa Bay; five of last seven series games went over total. Miami won five of last seven games (over 5-4 last nine). Rays lost three of last five games (under 5-1-2 last eight).


Win-loss records this year for team with this starting pitcher:
NY-Phil-- Bullpen x-x; Eickhoff 3-4
Wsh-Atl-- Strasburg 13-9 (10-2 last 12); Weber 1-3
Chi-Cin-- Hammel 14-16; Lamb 2-7
Col-Az-- Hale 3-8; Corbin 8-7
LA-SF-- Anderson 15-15; Hudson 12-9 (5-0 last 5)
Mil-SD-- Jungmann 10-10 (0-4 last 4); Kennedy 12-17 (1-5 last 6)

Tor-Balt-- Hutshison 18-9; Wilson 2-2
Bos-NY-- Hill 3-0; Sabathia 13-15
Min-Cle-- Duffey 7-2; Bauer 13-16
LA-Tex-- Heaney 10-6; Holland 4-5
KC-Chi-- Medlen 4-3; Danks 13-16

Mia-TB-- Fernandez 7-3; Odorizzi 13-14


Times this starting pitcher allowed a run in first inning:
NY-Phil-- Bullpen x-x; Eickhoff 3-7
Wsh-Atl-- Strasburg 5-22; Weber 1-4
Chi-Cin-- Hammel 13-30; Lamb 4-9
Col-Az-- Hale 8-11; Corbin 2-15
LA-SF-- Anderson 10-30; Hudson 5-21
Mil-SD-- Jungmann 3-20; Kennedy 10-29

Tor-Balt-- Hutchison 11-27; Wilson 0-4
Bos-NY-- Hill 0-3; Sabathia 10-28
Min-Cle-- Duffey 1-9; Bauer 7-29
LA-Tex-- Heaney 2-16; Holland 4-9
KC-Chi-- Medlen 3-7; Danks 8-29

Mia-TB-- Fernandez 2-10; Odorizzi 6-27


Umpires
NY-Phil-- Under is 5-1-1 in last seven Wendelstedt games.
Wsh-Atl-- Favorites won seven of last nine Holbrook games.
Chi-Cin-- Seven of last ten Miller games went over total.
Col-Az-- Six of last eight Scott games went over the total.
Mil-SD-- Last three Torres games stayed under the total.
LA-SF-- Four of last five Hickox games went over.

Bos-NY-- Eight of last eleven Tichenor games went over.
Tor-Balt-- Eight of last twelve Drake games stayed under
Min-Clev-- Seven of last eight O'Nora games stayed under
KC-Chi-- Eight of last eleven Conroy games stayed under.

Mia-TB-- Underdogs won five of last six May games.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Five To Follow MLB Betting: Thursday, October 1, 2015 Opening Line Report
by Alan Matthews

Now we officially know what one National League Division Series will be: New York Mets vs. Los Angeles Dodgers, a TV network's dream. The Mets clinched the NL East a while ago, and the Dodgers clinched their third straight NL West title on Tuesday night behind a dominant Clayton Kershaw. And the lefty apparently is lined up to face New York's Jacob deGrom in Game 1 on Oct. 9. The Mets are only using Matt Harvey once in the NLDS due to innings, and that's expected to be Game 2 or 3. Potential NL Cy Young winner Zack Greinke of the Dodgers would go in Game 2. We still don't know which team will have home-field advantage in that series. It most likely will be the Mets as they have a one-game lead plus the tiebreaker.


Cubs at Reds (+129, 8)

This 12:35 p.m. ET start is the early game of the day and will have live betting at sportsbooks with it shown on the MLB Network. This is Cincinnati's final home game of the season and thus presumably the final game there for Manager Bryan Price, who is expected to be fired despite a report from Fox's Ken Rosenthal this week the Reds might give him one more chance. I don't buy it. Cincinnati starts rookie lefty John Lamb (1-4, 5.40), who came over in the Johnny Cueto deal. Lamb allowed five runs over two innings last time out vs. the Mets and has never faced the Cubs. Chicago goes with Jason Hammel (9-7, 3.86), who may or may not have a rotation spot in the NLDS if the Cubs get there. He has been struggling for a while. Hammel is 0-0 with a 4.20 ERA in three starts this year vs. the Reds.

Key trends: The Cubs are 4-1 in their past five against a lefty. They are 2-7 in Hammel's past nine with four days of rest. The Reds are 0-4 in their past four Game 3 of a series. The "over/under" is 7-3 in Hammel's past 10 on the road. The over is 4-1 in Lamb's past five.

Early lean: Cubs, with nothing to play for, likely to rest handful of starters in this day after night game, and Reds will at least want to win home finale. Take them and the over.


Dodgers at Giants (+107, 7.5)

It's the final start in the career of Giants right-hander Tim Hudson (8-8, 4.30). The 40-year-old had been having a good September but had his shortest outing of the season Saturday in Oakland, lasting only 1.1 innings and allowing three runs. I think he was just distracted by pitching against friend and former teammate Barry Zito and that the A's honored them both. I wouldn't touch the Dodgers the rest of the weekend -- they aren't going to go all out to try and catch the Mets. They will be resting some guys and fine-tuning for the playoffs. L.A. starts lefty Brett Anderson (9-9, 3.75) here and he might be auditioning for a postseason rotation spot. He has allowed 11 runs and 20 hits over 8.2 innings in his past two starts. He is 1-2 with a 4.85 ERA this year in five starts vs. the Giants.

Key trends: The Dodgers are 2-5 in Anderson's past seven vs. teams with a winning record. The Giants are 2-7 in Hudson's past nine at home vs. teams with a winning record. The over is 5-1 in Anderson's past six. The over is 3-1-1 in Hudson's past five vs. L.A.

Early lean: Giants and over.


Nationals at Braves (+173, 7.5)

Could this be the last start for Stephen Strasburg in a Nationals uniform? Probably not, but he will be a free agent after next season and is represented by Scott Boras, so Strasburg will test the market and be asking for the moon. So it's not unthinkable the Nats might deal him this winter if the right offer comes along. Strasburg (10-7, 3.63) is really rolling right now, allowing five total runs over his past four starts and striking out at least 10 in all of them -- at least 13 in three. He has faced Atlanta only once this year, beating the Braves by shutting them out over five innings. It's rookie Ryan Weber (0-2, 5.91) for the Braves. This will be his fifth career start. He has yet to face Washington.

Key trends: The Nats are 8-0 in Strasburg's past eight vs. teams with a losing record. The under is 5-0 in his past five on the road. The over is 5-2 in his past seven vs. Atlanta.

Early lean: Nationals on runline and under.


Twins at Indians (-117, 7.5)

With the way the Los Angeles Angels are playing right now, the Twins probably have to win out to have even a remote chance of taking the second AL wild-card spot, and even that might not be enough. Cleveland, meanwhile, is done. Tyler Duffey (5-1, 3.14) goes for Minnesota in this series finale. The rookie has been very good of late, going 5-0 with a 2.17 ERA over his past eight starts. He shut out the Tribe on one hit back on Aug. 15. Cleveland starts Josh Tomlin (6-2, 3.03). He made his season debut in Minnesota on Aug. 15 opposite Duffey and allowed two runs and five hits over 6.1 innings. Joe Mauer is 7-for-16 career off him.

Key trends: The Twins are 5-0 in Duffey's past five vs. teams with a losing record. The Indians are 1-7 in Tomlin's past eight at home vs. teams with a winning record. The over is 4-1 in Duffey's past five on the road. The over is 10-2 in Tomlin's past 12 at home.

Early lean: Twins and under.


Marlins at Rays (-102, 6.5)

Final start of another abbreviated season for Marlins ace Jose Fernandez (6-0, 2.91), and the team has to feel really good about what he has shown in his 10 starts. I think the Marlins will be a contender next season as long as Fernandez and Giancarlo Stanton stay healthy, although that has been easier said than done this year. Fernandez hasn't faced the Rays this year and is 1-0 with a 3.42 ERA on the road in 2015. Tampa Bay goes with Jake Odorizzi (8-9, 3.49). He has been a bit off his past two, allowing eight runs over 10.2 innings. Odorizzi hasn't faced the Marlins in 2015.

Key trends: The Marlins are 1-4 in Fernandez's past five on the road. The Rays are 5-1 in Odorizzi's past six vs. teams with a losing record. The over is 5-0 in Fernandez's past five on the road. The over is 6-0 in Odorizzi's past six at home.

Early lean: Marlins and under.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Thursday's six-pack

-- A's 8, Angels 7-- Damaging loss for Halos, who finish season against Rangers.

-- Texas Tech-Baylor total is 90.5, highest-ever listed total. Averaged total in last five series games in 95.8.

-- Congrats to the Blue Jays on their first AL East title since 1993.

-- Northwestern has a walk-on basketball player named Charlie Hall; his mother is Julia Louis-Dreyfus, who played Elaine on Seinfeld.

-- Georgia is only SEC team without a full-sized indoor practice field; that means even Vanderbilt has one.

-- Baseball games in Philly/Baltimore today have been moved up to noon starts, to beat bad weather expected to pound the Atlantic seaboard this weekend.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Streaks, Tips, Notes

Starting 0-1 'Is Not Good'. Starting 0-2 'Is Bad'. Starting 0-3 'Really Stinks'. The third week of the NFL season in the books there are four winless teams trapped in the 'Really Stink' catagory looking to escape a dreaded 0-4 hole. Looking at Wk-4 matchups there is a great possibility these squads remain winless as reeling Saints host Cowboys, Bears with a negative-59 point differential in three games host Raiders, Ravens with no running game visit Steelers and toothless Lions head into one of the toughest venues in the league to take on Seahawks.

Only time will tell if the O-FER's can emerge victorious. According to our trusty NFL betting database, since 2004 there have been 51 teams opening the campaign 0-3 and of those only 17 managed to right the ship in week-4 for a lowly 33.3% winning rate. However, the 'Now or Never' teams managed a 26-24-1 record against the betting line in those contest with winless underdogs 21-16-1 ATS split between 9-10-1 ATS in friendly confines and a sturdy 12-6 ATS in enemy territory.

A few additional betting nuggets to consider if you plan to bet on/against the winless. Saints 0-6 ATS at home, Cowboys 9-1 ATS on the road. Bears 3-8 ATS at home, 4-15-1 ATS L20 in the Windy City. Raiders 11-7 ATS L18 in enemy territory. Ravens 1-7 ATS L8 a chalk, 3-4-2 ATS L9 in Pittsburgh. Steelers 8-2-1 ATS as dogs. Detroit 1-7 ATS L8 away from MoTown, Seahawks 5-0-1 ATS L6 as faves of 9 to 16.5.

 

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'Thursday Night Football'

Baltimore Ravens (0-3 SU/ATS) stumling out of the gate look to right the ship against divisional rival Pittsburgh Steelers (2-1, 3-0 ATS) when the two collide at Heinz Field. Last season, these heated rivals met three times, with the Ravens going 2-1 SU/ATS. Ravens won 26-6 in Baltimore in week-2 and 30-17 in Pittsburgh in the wild card round of the playoffs, while the Steelers crushed Ravens 43-23 in front of its friendly crowd in week-9. The last seventeen meeting at Heinz Field, Pittsburgh has walked off with 12 wins, 5 losses. However, against the betting line Steelers were a poor 7-8-2 over the span.

The Ravens taking on a Roethlisberger-less Steeler squad have opened -2.5 point betting favorites. When handicapping this contest a few betting nuggets to ponder. Ravens are on a 0-6 ATS skid as chalk, 4-10-1 ATS slide vs a division rival. Steelers are 8-2-1 ATS L11 in an underdog roll, 10-5 ATS vs a division opponent off a SU loss. One final tid-bit, Steelers are 1-5 SU, 3-2-1 ATS last six vs Ravens without Roethlisberger.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Dave Cokin

Bonus Play

137 IOWA @ 138 WISCONSIN 12:00 PM

Take: 137 IOWA +7

It’s mostly about the matchup for me as Iowa visits Wisconsin on Saturday. The Hawkeyes are proving to be proficient at shutting down opposing running games and if they can turn that trick at Madison, Iowa should have a good chance at registering a mild upset against the Badgers.

I’ve always been a defensive dog guy in college football. Give me a team that can stop the run on a regular basis and add some points to the mix, and I’ll often be interested. That’s the case here, and if the Hawkeyes can contain the Wisconsin ground game, Badgers QB Joel Stave becomes a candidate to turn it over once or twice.

The interesting aspect here is that Wisconsin also figures to limit Iowa on the ground. But the Hawkeyes have a QB that’s playing very well in CJ Beathard. He’s not a superstar signal caller, but Beathard is not making mistakes and he’s flourishing throwing most high percentage passes.

Iowa also has some incentive to avenge a narrow home loss to Wisconsin from 2014 and while current form is not always an accurate barometer, Iowa simply seems to be playing better football than the Badgers at this point.

As for my numbers on this game, I’ve got two sets of ratings that show Iowa winning outright and the others have Wisconsin coming out on top, albeit by a slim margin. My expectation is that this will be a tightly contested affair. If that is indeed the way it plays out, grabbing a full TD with the visitors should work nicely. Mark me down for a play on Iowa plus the points.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Jim Feist

Jim Feist's Bonus Play for Thursday, Oct. 1 7:10 PM EST

(909) WASHINGTON NATIONALS VS (910) ATLANTA BRAVES

Take: UNDER THE TOTAL

Reason: Your Bonus Play for Thursday, October 1st, 2015 is in the MLB contest between the Nationals and the Braves in Atlanta. Atlanta is a big park, great for pitchers, which has taken a toll on the Atlanta offense, which is the worst in baseball. Atlanta is 5-0 under the total at home. Ryan Weber goes for Atlanta and he likes this park, with a 3.38 ERA at home. The under is 7-2 in the Nationals last 9 road games vs. a team with a losing record. Washington is 5-2-1 under the total on the road, including 5-0 under away when Stephen Strasburg (3.63 ERA) starts. Strasburg was dominant again in a no-decision Saturday, striking out 13 Phillies while allowing just one run on three hits and a walk over eight innings. Play the Nationals/Braves under the total.

 

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Scott Spreitzer

Miami Marlins vs Tampa Bay Rays

Bonus Play Miami Marlins

I'm recommending a play on the Marlins on Thursday. We played the Rays last night and cashed in the 6-4 Tampa Bay win. But Miami heads into this one playing decent baseball overall, currently 16-10 in their last 26 games. They have a shot to avoid the three-game sweep with Jose Fernandez on the hill. The right-hander got roughed-up in his most recent outing, but we believe that was an anomaly. When healthy, Fernandez has been too dominant to believe his last start was anything more than a temporary glitch. Fernandez still owns a ridiculously strong and elite level strikeout rate, not to mention a sub-3.00 ERA and a terrific WHIP. I'd expect nothing less than a return to form in this one. Jake Odorizzi goes for the Rays and his fall has a little more meat to it. The right-hander has allowed 20 earned runs, 47 base runners, and eight home runs in his last six starts, spanning 34 innings of work. That's a 5.29 ERA, 1.38 WHIP, and a hefty 2.12 HRs per 9 IP rate. Miami enters on a 5-0 run against right-handed pitchers. They're tops in baseball in September team batting average, while ranked 8th in OBP. I expect Miami to extend their run to 17-10. I'm recommending a play on the Marlins on Thursday. Thanks & GL! Scott Spreitzer.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL
Long Sheet

Thursday, October 1

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BALTIMORE (0 - 3) at PITTSBURGH (2 - 1) - 10/1/2015, 8:25 PM
Top Trends for this game.
PITTSBURGH is 70-48 ATS (+17.2 Units) as an underdog since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 81-57 ATS (+18.3 Units) in home games when playing with 6 or less days rest since 1992.
PITTSBURGH is 53-32 ATS (+17.8 Units) in October games since 1992.

Head-to-Head Series History
PITTSBURGH is 3-2 against the spread versus BALTIMORE over the last 3 seasons
BALTIMORE is 3-2 straight up against PITTSBURGH over the last 3 seasons
2 of 4 games in this series have gone OVER THE TOTAL over the last 3 seasons

 

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NFL
Short Sheet

Week 4

Thursday - Oct, 1

Baltimore at Pittsburgh, 8:25 ET
Baltimore: 8-20 ATS on road after allowing 99 or less rushing yds in 3 games
Pittsburgh: 92-62 OVER after allowing 75 or less rushing yards last game

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

NFL

Week 4

Trend Report

Thursday, October 1

8:25 PM
BALTIMORE vs. PITTSBURGH
Baltimore is 1-4 SU in its last 5 games on the road
Baltimore is 2-3-1 ATS in its last 6 games when playing on the road against Pittsburgh
Pittsburgh is 6-1-1 ATS in its last 8 games
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Pittsburgh's last 7 games

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB MONEYLINE


MLB > (907) NY METS@ (908) PHILADELPHIA | 2015-10-01 12:05:00 - 2015-10-01 12:05:00
Play ON NY METS using money line when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season
The record is 44 Wins and 18 Losses for the last three seasons (+29.19 units)

MLB > (919) LA ANGELS@ (920) TEXAS | 2015-10-01 20:05:00 - 2015-10-01 20:05:00
Play ON TEXAS using money line in night games
The record is 63 Wins and 49 Losses for the this season (+26.62 units)

MLB > (917) MINNESOTA@ (918) CLEVELAND | 2015-10-01 19:10:00 - 2015-10-01 19:10:00
Play AGAINST CLEVELAND using money line against division opponents
The record is 13 Wins and 22 Losses for the this season (-15.95 units)

MLB > (903) LA DODGERS@ (904) SAN FRANCISCO | 2015-10-01 15:45:00 - 2015-10-01 15:45:00
Play AGAINST LA DODGERS using money line in games played on a grass field
The record is 36 Wins and 43 Losses for the this season (-23.8 units)

MLB > (911) COLORADO@ (912) ARIZONA | 2015-10-01 21:40:00 - 2015-10-01 21:40:00
Play AGAINST COLORADO using money line in night games
The record is 30 Wins and 80 Losses for the last two seasons (-41.01 units)

MLB > (901) CHICAGO CUBS@ (902) CINCINNATI | 2015-10-01 12:35:00 - 2015-10-01 12:35:00
Play AGAINST CINCINNATI using money line in day games
The record is 16 Wins and 34 Losses for the this season (-20.35 units)

MLB > (909) WASHINGTON@ (910) ATLANTA | 2015-10-01 19:10:00 - 2015-10-01 19:10:00
Play AGAINST WASHINGTON using money line in night games
The record is 48 Wins and 55 Losses for the this season (-21.85 units)

 

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MLB RUNLINE

MLB > (907) NY METS@ (908) PHILADELPHIA | 2015-10-01 12:05:00 - 2015-10-01 12:05:00
Play ON NY METS in day games
The record is 33 Wins and 13 Losses for the this season (+24.35 units)

MLB > (913) BOSTON@ (914) NY YANKEES | 2015-10-01 19:05:00 - 2015-10-01 19:05:00
Play AGAINST BOSTON when playing with a day off
The record is 8 Wins and 28 Losses for the last two seasons (-25.55 units)

MLB > (921) KANSAS CITY@ (922) CHI WHITE SOX | 2015-10-01 20:10:00 - 2015-10-01 20:10:00
Play ON KANSAS CITY when playing with a day off
The record is 29 Wins and 11 Losses for the last two seasons (+24.1 units)

MLB > (909) WASHINGTON@ (910) ATLANTA | 2015-10-01 19:10:00 - 2015-10-01 19:10:00
Play AGAINST WASHINGTON when the total is 7 or less
The record is 27 Wins and 54 Losses for the this season (-35.35 units)

MLB > (919) LA ANGELS@ (920) TEXAS | 2015-10-01 20:05:00 - 2015-10-01 20:05:00
Play ON LA ANGELS when playing with a day off
The record is 15 Wins and 5 Losses for the this season (+12.05 units)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB TOTALS

MLB > (905) MILWAUKEE@ (906) SAN DIEGO | 2015-10-01 18:40:00 - 2015-10-01 18:40:00
Play OVER SAN DIEGO on the total in games played on a grass field
The record is 92 Overs and 59 Unders for the this season (+31.7 units)

MLB > (915) TORONTO@ (916) BALTIMORE | 2015-10-01 12:05:00 - 2015-10-01 12:05:00
Play UNDER BALTIMORE on the total against left-handed starters
The record is 28 Overs and 59 Unders for the last two seasons (+28.4 units)

MLB > (917) MINNESOTA@ (918) CLEVELAND | 2015-10-01 19:10:00 - 2015-10-01 19:10:00
Play OVER CLEVELAND on the total against right-handed starters
The record is 32 Overs and 15 Unders for the this season (+16.1 units)

MLB > (907) NY METS@ (908) PHILADELPHIA | 2015-10-01 12:05:00 - 2015-10-01 12:05:00
Play OVER NY METS on the total when playing against a team with a losing record in the second half of the season
The record is 26 Overs and 11 Unders for the last two seasons (+15.45 units)

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

MLB TOP POWERLINES

MLB > (907) NY METS @ (908) PHILADELPHIA | 2015-10-01 12:05:00 - 2015-10-01 12:05:00
Line: NY METS BTB PowerLine: NY METS141
Edge On: NY METS (1)

MLB > (901) CHICAGO CUBS @ (902) CINCINNATI | 2015-10-01 12:35:00 - 2015-10-01 12:35:00
Line: CHICAGO CUBS BTB PowerLine: CHICAGO CUBS192
Edge On: CHICAGO CUBS (52)

MLB > (903) LA DODGERS @ (904) SAN FRANCISCO | 2015-10-01 15:45:00 - 2015-10-01 15:45:00
Line: SAN FRANCISCO+100 BTB PowerLine: SAN FRANCISCO-118
Edge On: SAN FRANCISCO (18)

MLB > (905) MILWAUKEE @ (906) SAN DIEGO | 2015-10-01 18:40:00 - 2015-10-01 18:40:00
Line: MILWAUKEE BTB PowerLine: MILWAUKEE116
Edge On: MILWAUKEE (31)

MLB > (909) WASHINGTON @ (910) ATLANTA | 2015-10-01 19:10:00 - 2015-10-01 19:10:00
Line: WASHINGTON BTB PowerLine: WASHINGTON222
Edge On: WASHINGTON (32)

MLB > (923) MIAMI @ (924) TAMPA BAY | 2015-10-01 19:10:00 - 2015-10-01 19:10:00
Line: MIAMI BTB PowerLine: MIAMI112
Edge On: MIAMI (2)

MLB > (919) LA ANGELS @ (920) TEXAS | 2015-10-01 20:05:00 - 2015-10-01 20:05:00
Line: TEXAS-125 BTB PowerLine: TEXAS-141
Edge On: TEXAS (16)

MLB > (921) KANSAS CITY @ (922) CHI WHITE SOX | 2015-10-01 20:10:00 - 2015-10-01 20:10:00
Line: CHI WHITE SOX+105 BTB PowerLine: CHI WHITE SOX-120
Edge On: CHI WHITE SOX (25)

MLB > (911) COLORADO @ (912) ARIZONA | 2015-10-01 21:40:00 - 2015-10-01 21:40:00
Line: COLORADO BTB PowerLine: COLORADO-157
Edge On: COLORADO (4)