Thursday 10/1/15 service plays chatter/comps/requests & other stuff...

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NFL

Week 4

Ravens (0-3) @ Steelers (2-1)-- Pitt is 10-8 in last 18 games without Big Ben at QB; but only 2-7 in division games. Vick has 112 NFL starts, only nine (3-6) last 2+ years; tough to adjust offenses with new QB on short week. Home side won last four in series; Ravens lost last two visits here, by 3-20 points- they're in desperate straits after starting year 0-3, losing by 6-4-4 points. Raven foes are 25-48 on 3rd down. Last two games. Pitt ran ball 47 times for only 146 yards; you figure they have to be more run-oriented on offense with backup QB playing. Over last decade, Steelers are 5-1 as home underdogs. Last 3+ years, Baltimore is 12-15 in games with spread of 3 or less points. Seven of last nine Pittsburgh home games went over the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Free NFL Picks: Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Odds
by Alan Matthews

The Pittsburgh Steelers haven't repeated as AFC North champions since 2007-08; that '08 team won Pittsburgh's last Super Bowl. I don't think they are repeating as division champions now, either. Or probably making the playoffs after losing Ben Roethlisberger for 4-6 weeks due to a strained MCL in his left knee.

That injury has dramatically affected the line for Thursday night's game against rival Baltimore. I'll let John Lester, senior lines manager for Bookmaker.eu, explain why Pittsburgh is a 2.5-point dog:

"The loss of Roethlisberger is huge. He's worth at least seven points to a spread because of the offense Pittsburgh runs and the fact that backup Michael Vick is a bottom-tier replacement," Lester said. "If Big Ben isn't available, the offense will struggle. Prior to the injury, we were looking to make the home team between a six- and 7-point favorite."

The Ravens 100 percent have to win this game at 0-3. No 0-4 team has made the playoffs in the current format. Just 2.4 percent of teams to start 0-3 since 1990 have made it.

Ravens at Steelers Betting Story Lines

You probably have seen the play on which Roethlisberger was hurt in Sunday's 12-6 win at the Rams. I wouldn't say it was a dirty below-the-knees hit by Rams safety Mark Barron, but it was a bit questionable. He wasn't penalized, however, and as of this writing hasn't been fined by the NFL. It happened with 5:35 left in the third quarter as Barron was sacking Big Ben on a blitz. It looked bad right away. Roethlisberger also has a bone bruise.

Obviously, there's no such thing as a good time for your franchise quarterback to be injured, but this is really an inopportune moment. There's this short-week turnaround game against a desperate Ravens team. Then a trip to San Diego in Week 5, home game vs. Arizona in Week 6 and at Kansas City in Week 7. The Steelers could easily lose all four of those with Vick under center; and that's assuming Big Ben only misses those four. In Week 8, the Steelers host Cincinnati, the -200 division favorite at Sportsbook.ag (Pittsburgh is now +300).

Vick is just 6-13 in his past 19 starts overall. He was one of the lowest-rated QBs in the NFL last year in spot duty with the Jets, completing just 52.9 percent of his passes for 604 yards, three TDs and two picks. To be fair, that Jets team didn't have anywhere near the firepower on offense that Pittsburgh does. Expect the Steelers to really rely more on All-Pro running back Le'Veon Bell now. Bell made his season debut off suspension vs. the Rams, rushing 19 times for 62 yards and a score while catching seven balls for 70 yards. The defense also is going to have to raise its game.

Might Baltimore head coach John Harbaugh be in a bit of trouble? I doubt it with how successful the team has been under him, but there's no question the Ravens are the most disappointing team in the NFL right now. It's the first time that Baltimore is 0-3 -- it had been the only current team to never start 0-3.

Then again, the Ravens aren't far from being 3-0. Baltimore lost by only six in Week 1 at Denver, by four in the final minute at Oakland in Week 2 and then 28-24 in the home opener this past Sunday against the Bengals. Joe Flacco was good against Cincinnati, completing 32 of 49 passes (65.3 percent) for 362 yards and two touchdowns for a 92.4 passer rating. Both of Flacco's touchdowns went to wide receiver Steve Smith, who had 13 receptions (tying team record) for 186 yards. In the past seven playoff or regular season games where Flacco has thrown the ball 40 times or more, the Ravens are 0-7. During his career, the Ravens are 7-15 in games during which Flacco has had 40 or more attempts. But Baltimore is struggling to run the ball right now. Justin Forsett is starting to look like a one-year wonder as he's averaging only 3.2 yards per carry.

The Ravens have won six of the past 10 regular-season meetings with Pittsburgh. The teams split them last year, each winning easily. The Steelers had their worst offensive game of the year in a 26-6 loss in Baltimore but then stomped the Ravens 43-23 in Pittsburgh behind six Big Ben TD passes. The Ravens then went to Pittsburgh in the AFC divisional round and pulled off a 30-17 upset in a game in which the Steelers were sans an injured Bell.

Ravens at Steelers Betting Odds and Trends

The Ravens are 2.5-point favorites (-115) with a total of 43.5. Baltimore is -140 on the moneyline. For alternate lines, the Ravens are -4 (+143), -3.5 (+135), -3 (+110), -2 (-120), -1.5 (-125) and -1 (-133). The Ravens are 0-3 against the spread this season and 2-1 "over/under." The Steelers are 3-0 ATS and 1-2 O/U.

Baltimore is 2-6 ATS in its past eight on Thursday. The Ravens are 1-4-1 ATS in their past six vs. the AFC North. They are 0-4 ATS in their past four after a loss. The Steelers are 7-1 ATS in their past eight. They are 2-5 ATS in their past seven vs. teams with a losing record. The under is 6-2 in Pittsburgh's past eight on Thursday.

Free NFL Picks: Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers Betting Predictions

Pittsburgh has won its past three outright at home as an underdog. One of those was last year against the Colts. The last time the Steelers were home dogs to Baltimore was November 2012 and the Ravens won 13-10. These games are usually very close, which made last year unusual. Seven of the past 10 regular-season games have been decided by three or fewer points. I just don't think Vick has anything left and that the Ravens will be playing so desperate. So give the 2.5 points. Go under the total.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at The Red Mile

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 9 - Post: 9:32 - 1 mile. TROT - Class Rating: 74 - Purse:$10000 - LATE CLOSER #6 TWO YEAR OLD COLTS & GELDINGS NW 2 PM RACES OR $25,000 LIFE THRU & INCLUDING 9-1-2015 SPONSORED BY: HOOF BEATS


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 5 TNT RUSTY 4/1


# 4 ROCKY HANOVER 8/1


# 2 MULTITASKR HANOVER 9/2


TNT RUSTY has a good shot to take this race. Many selectors know speed is is such an important factor. This fine animal has credentials with a 75 avg stat. Could be considered in this contest if only for the really strong TrackMaster speed fig earned in the most recent contest. Drawing the 5 position at this track has lead to a better than expected win statistic. ROCKY HANOVER - Positive instinct - racing well enough to contend in this race. Might be there at a fair price tag. Quite possibly one to keep in your exotics. MULTITASKR HANOVER - A formidable class horse should not be be overlooked. With an avg class stat of 71 all signs look very good for this one.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Chatsworth Consortium at Maywood Park

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 10 - Post: 10:30 - 1 mile. PACE - Class Rating: 86 - Purse:$3600 - NON-WINNERS OF $2,000 LAST 5 STARTS


CONSORTIUM CHOICES


Chatsworth Consortium

# 3 MASTER OF DESIRE 5/2


# 1 RHOMBUS 6/1


# 4 SIR MAMMO 8/1


MASTER OF DESIRE sure does look ready to take the whole enchilada. Many handicappers know speed is is key. This standardbred has credentials with a 90 avg number. This gelding has been going to post versus some of the most competitive horses in this field lately. This interesting entrant achieved a nice speed rating last out. Looks in fine form to come right back. RHOMBUS - This gelding has been squaring off against some of the most competitive horses in this field of horses lately. Driver/trainer are no strangers to the winners circle and should have this gelding breaking away from the pack. SIR MAMMO - Cannot put a finger on it, but get behind this gelding for a bet.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Golden Gate Fields

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 1 - Claiming - 6.0f on the Dirt. Purse: $12000 Class Rating: 86

FOR FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 120 LBS.; OLDER, 123 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, IF FOR $10,500, ALLOWED 2 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 4 BAR CAR 8/5


# 5 VALDOURA'S COMMAND 3/1


# 2 STYLESKY 4/1


I've got to go with BAR CAR. Posted a quite good speed rating last time out. Has to be given a chance against this group of animals displaying strong figures lately and an average speed figure of 77 under similar conditions. With a strong jockey who has won at a quite good 28 percent clip over the last month. This has to be one of the top choices. VALDOURA'S COMMAND - Will probably compete admirably in the pace contest which bodes well with this group of horses in this race. This equine is at the top in this group in earnings per start at the distance/surface. STYLESKY - She should be given consideration given the very good speed numbers. Must be considered in this competition if only for the very good Equibase Speed Figure garnered in the last competition.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Walker Group at Prairie Meadows

Always check program numbers.
Odds shown are morning line odds.


Race 1 - Claiming - 330y on the Dirt. Purse: $10974 Class Rating: 64

QUARTER HORSE 330Y, FOR REGISTERED STATE BRED THREE YEAR OLD AND UPWARD WHICH HAVE NEVER WON TWO RACES. THREE YEAR OLDS, 124 LBS.; OLDER, 126 LBS. CLAIMING PRICE $12,500, IF FOR $10,000, ALLOWED 2 LBS.


RECOMMENDED CHOICES

The Walker Group Picks

# 6 DC DARN THAT CAT 8/1


# 2 TRS TOP SHOT RILEY 2/1


# 3 TRS AMAZING LEXI 3/1


DC DARN THAT CAT has a formidable shot to take this race and is a respectable value wager given the line. Wessels has one of the best winning percentages in this field with entries running at this distance and surface. Will make a strong outing versus this bunch. Is hard not to look at given the company run in as of late. TRS TOP SHOT RILEY - Posted a reliable speed figure in the most recent race. Can run another good one in this contest. With a reliable 57 average speed rating at the distance, seems well suited for today's affair. TRS AMAZING LEXI - Has very strong early lick and ought to fare admirably versus this field. Could best this field based on the speed figure - 62 - of her last effort.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Penn National - Race #4 - Post: 7:22pm - Maiden Special - 6.0 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $33,300 Class Rating: 73

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#1A WILLIWAW (ML=5/2)
#7 GURT BOYS (ML=7/2)
#6 HAVERSACK (ML=6/1)


WILLIWAW - GURT BOYS - I'll bet that this colt even surprised his connections when he made his debut on September 12th and finished third. Otero and Houghton perform well when they work together. It's hard to beat a +23 return on investment for a jockey and trainer. I am keen on that latest contest on September 12th at Penn National where he ended up third. Houghton is hoping to get a little more out of this colt by adding blinkers today. Houghton, the trainer, shows intent by adding Lasix in today's race. A positive sign. I like this colt. Has the highest (EPS) earnings per start in here. HAVERSACK - Madrigal sends this one to the starting gate for the 1st time. With a win percent of 29 with first timers, I'll give this one a serious look. When this jock and trainer combine forces you have to take a look. Oro and Madrigal have been great together. It's a big plus that this first timer has been working over the same track that he makes his debut at today. Madrigal, the trainer, shows intent by adding Lasix in this event. A positive sign.

Vulnerable Contenders: #1 DERECHO (ML=5/2), #2 KING MINOS (ML=3/1), #4 LAY DOWN THE LAW (ML=6/1),

DERECHO - Today's race is 6 furlongs. Hasn't hit the board in a sprint event in the last two months. Not the best of omens. Difficult to take this horse at these odds after the finish (fifth) in the last race. KING MINOS - Improbable that the speed rating he notched on September 10th will be good enough in this event. LAY DOWN THE LAW - I foresee a letdown for this horse in this event.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#1 Entry is going to be the play if we are getting 2/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
1 with [6,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
Box [1,6,7] Total Cost: $6

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

** Some or all wagers above involve entries and assume all parts of entry start the race **

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by The Turf Club Analysts

Bar

Charles Town - Race #4 - Post: 8:30pm - Allowance - 4.5 furlongs on the Dirt. Purse: $26,000 Class Rating: 61

Rating: Golden DollarGolden DollarGolden DollarGolden Dollar

#6 MY PRINCESS SOPHIA (ML=3/1)


MY PRINCESS SOPHIA - My handicapping know-how tells me to watch out for this animal in this affair

Vulnerable Contenders: #3 CHARITABLE STAR (ML=8/5), #5 LITTLE ENEMY (ML=7/2), #7 CAT THATS WILD (ML=6/1),

CHARITABLE STAR - You should normally wager against probable favorites that haven't raced or show no activity in the morning over the last 3 weeks. Pace makes the race. Difficult for this speed merchant to be able to handle the early pressure from the rest of this field. LITTLE ENEMY - It appears like too much early speed is entered in this event. This speed merchant will almost certainly get roasted on the top end. CAT THATS WILD - This filly raced well on September 10th finishing first, but hasn't even visited the track since then. Not really a good sign. She's likely going to get baked on the top end.


STRAIGHT WAGERS:
#6 MY PRINCESS SOPHIA is going to be the play if we are getting 1/1 or better

EXACTA WAGERS:
6 with [4,7]

TRIFECTA WAGERS:
None

SUPERFECTA WAGERS:
None

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Handicapped by Rick Needham at Belmont Park

RACE #7 - BELMONT PARK - 4:13 PM EASTERN POST

6.0 FURLONGS DIRT FILLIES AND MARES THREE YEARS OLD AND UPWARD STARTER ALLOWANCE $65,000.00 PURSE

#5 AUTUMN SQUALL
#4 GLARE ICE
#7 KNOW IT ALL ANNA
#2 ETA CARINAE

#5 AUTUMN SQUALL is the overall speed leader in this allowance field sprinting at this afternoon's distance of 6.0 furlongs on the dirt, and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in three of her four career starts to date, including a "POWER RUN WIN" to break her maiden in her "first asking." Jockey Angel Arroyo was in her irons for those 4 races, with the win producing a 619% return on investment in the process, and is back today for his 5th ride, gunning for a 2nd "Circle Trip!" #4 GLARE ICE, a 4-1 shot, has excellent early speed for this sprint, is the pace profile leader, and has hit the board in "POWER RUN FASHION" in three straight including a "POWER RUN WIN" in her last start, which was her "maiden-breaker."

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Woodbine Harness: Thursday 10/1 Analysis
By Garnet Barnsdale

DRF HARNESS

Race 4 - $50,000 Guaranteed Pick Four Pool

20-CENT (15% Takeout Pick 5): 1,2,3,4,7/1,5/1,5,7/1,5/2,3,5,6 = $48

EARLY PICK 4: 1,5/2,3,5,6/3,5,7/4,7 = $48

LATE PICK 4: 4,7/4,7,9/4,5/1,3,4,9 = $48

MEET STATS: 0 - 0 / $0.00 BEST BETS: 0 - 0 / $0.00

SPOT PLAYS: 0 - 0 / $0.00

Best Bet: IDOLE DUHARAS (8th)

Spot Play: TOTALLY DREAMY (10th)


Race 1

(3) TUSCANS MEMORY had some late trot to offer in his first start on the circuit and that was off an 18-day break. (1) MAJESTIC DIVA is one of few in here that at least has been trying to advance on the outside in her races. Moiseyev may try to leave better with this filly tonight. (4) MOONLIGHT COCKTAIL has early speed which should bode well in this tough start to the first-ever pick 5 wager at a WEG harness track.

Race 2

(1) MARION MARAUDER has finished close behind the best rookie trotting colt in the division in consecutive starts. I won't argue with those singling this colt but we'll also be using (5) BLENHEIM in this pick 5. That gelding gets a notable driver change and would add great value to the pick 5 if he could knock off the big chalk. (4) HILLS ANGEL has some ability and gets post relief that gives her a chance at making the exacta here.

Race 3

(7) SEVERINE HANOVER was a $175K Harrisburg purchase and is a full-sister to a colt that is 2 for 3 so far and won his debut easily. This isn't the toughest spot to make a debut; top call. (5) MARQUIS VOLO was a big winner last time out of town and gets a big driver change here, but that race was a month ago; mixed signals. (1) AMITYVILLE LINDY made several breaks last time yet still came on for third late. He obviously has ability but needs to behave.

Race 4

(1) ANARCHY HANOVER rode cover to an easy win last time and should be able to work out a good trip here starting from the inside; top call. (5) SOUTHWIND MONTY was the one that provided the choice's cover and could turn the tables with a better trip here. (4) CENOVIS has been grabbing minor checks in New York Sires Stakes and could better this placing if sent for position near the front early.

Race 5

(5) ARIELLA raced well for her first several starts then went off form. She returns from a brief break here with a solid qualifier in tow and should be competitive. (2) TYMAL WIZARD made two moves to win last time and has the kind of style that should suit Woodbine; using. (3) FANCY STEP retains Filion for a second start and could make some noise at a big price, especially if she leaves quicker than she has been.

Race 6

(7) GRANA PADANNO shakes the sharp Mystery Bet who beat him the past two starts. He could boss this group from start to finish. (5) KEN KAN WIN has closed impressively for two straight wins in NW2 races and can't be discounted here. (3) DOMEDOMEDOME did well here at Woodbine earlier in the year and should get a decent trip near the front.

Race 7

(4) CAMPS BAY has shown flashes of ability late in her miles and is bound to try a more aggressive approach soon. She could take this group with a quicker start. (7) MAXIM SEELSTER gets Christoforou here, which should lead to some immediate improvement. (2) MISS WIGGLE WORTH has shown decent closing speed and has upset possibilities if she can leave quicker.

Race 8

(7) IDOLE DUHARAS made two moves into big fractions and just failed to hold on in a big effort. He was claimed again and gets top call here. (9) DERBY DYLAN races in a claimer for the first time since being claimed on August 12 and has enough speed to overcome this post. (4) TWANG TWANG was third behind the choice last time and should share here, too.

Race 9

(5) THE MURMURING PAN has been razor-sharp since he returned to the races early this month; third straight is likely here. (4) IN SECRET went a big trip in the Grassroots Finals last week and looks like the only other real contender. (8) ROCKY DE VIE was a sharp winner at Flamboro last time out and could get a good piece of this with the improvement he's been showing.

Race 10

(1) TOTALLY DREAMY showed immediate, dramatic improvement off the claim for Brealey. There could be more of that forthcoming here. Catch him tonight before the price drops next week. (3) STEVES LEGACY closed well into fast fractions for 2nd last time and will be tough here. (4) SOAKING UP THE SUN chased an insane pace and understandably tired. He should go better here. (9) BRINGHOME THEBLUE got the perfect pace setup and capitalized last time. A minor award is more likely here. (10) NEEDLECREST was visually impressive when closing for 2nd at big odds most recently. He could make the ticket at big price.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Yonkers: Thursday 10/1 Analysis
By Brewster Smith

DRF HARNESS

MEET STATS: 198 - 939 / $1,397.40 BEST BETS: 23 - 79 / $106.00

Best Bet: HALL OF TERROR (4th)

Spot Play: THE RIGHT MOVE (6th)


Race 1

(5) BACK TO THE WEST moves down the ladder and good to see Bartlett with the call; can boss these at his best. (1) JACKED UP retains the rail slot and showed some early zip last out; factor. (6) BETTOR DESIGN was on the engine to deep stretch and tired to hang on for the show spot recently; should be in the mix.

Race 2

(3) LET HER ROCK was used up in the early stages last time out. She was sharp two starts back and if she can revert to her September 17th trip, it could be game over for the rest. (2) FLYING MOCHA is 0 for 15 this year; gets serious post relief and that should help her cause. (8) LOCAL ART was second best at Pocono last time around. She returns to Yonkers where she got the job done on September 10th; threat.

Race 3

(1) LITTLE MERMAID N was sharp in her last three trips to the post. She makes her return to the fence where she won on August 20th. (4) JUST SAYIN flashed speed in her last start and put in two seconds on September 3rd & 10th; main danger. (3) NUTMEGS DESIRE took the pocket route home to victory in her most recent outing; big player.

Race 4

(1) HALL OF TERROR's last two outings here were not bad. He now moves to the rail slot and with a fine-timed drive from Holland, he could take top honors. (3) WORLD PEACE closed strongly to nail down the third spot last time out; must be considered. (7) DOUBLE YOUR BET drops in class and has speed; not out of this.

Race 5

(7) CHEROKEE HIFLYZANE was sharp in his last start to just miss by only a length. Sophomore is fit and ready to boss these at his best. (1) VANCE BAYAMA makes his return to Yonkers and the rail slot should put this guy in the mix; maybe. (2) MACH TO THE MAX is back inside where he was second three starts ago at Pocono; watch out.

Race 6

(4) THE RIGHT MOVE gets class relief; could help this pacing mare to put it all together. (3) MY IDEAL HANOVER did not fire in her previous try but is very capable of turning things around; consider. (7) ALITTLEEASTERMAGIC is much better than her last flop; scored on September 3rd & 10th; beware.

Race 7

(2) ROLLWITHITHARRY is on the drop-down and gets post relief; 7-year-old figures to rate and with some luck, he can get the job done. (1) ONTHECLOCK HANOVER draws much better and this gelding could make some serious noise in deep stretch. (5) COACH CAL was sent by Brennan down the road last out for all the glory; very dangerous.

Race 8

(2) MACHO CHICK should appreciate the move to the 2-hole. With a fine-timed drive from Sears, this pacing miss can get back into the winner's circle. (5) ROBIN CRUISER is seeking her second victory of the year and the drop down should help her cause; threat. (1) CHEYENNE MIRIAM returns to the fence where she was second best on August 21st; can't be counted out of this.

Race 9

(4) MIKELEH flashed good speed from the 8-hole last time out; fits with this group and has every right to get the job done with a favorable trip. (5) DENYITTOTHEEND led every step of the way in her most recent outing; big player again. (1) K JS CAROLINE showed speed against better last time around; not out of this from the fence.

Race 10

(5) COLONIAL ROAD needs to get back to his September 3rd start to make some noise against these; could mow them down with a complete meltdown of the early leaders. (4) INVICTUS HANOVER has scored his last two in a row; dangerous again. (3) THEREISAPACEFORUS is a consistent gelding that closed well to nail down the victory last out; big player.

Race 11

(4) ELM GROVE INARUSH has put in two excellent efforts and this mare figures to be quite tough against these; the pick. (1) CANACO STAR went down the road last time around for all the glory; main danger again. (5) GRACE SEELSTER missed her third straight score by only 3/4 of a length; exotics factor.

Race 12

(3) MOMMA ROCK was up against it versus better stock last time out. The good news is she should find these to her liking and Brennan gets the assignment; poised to take this at her best. (4) LICULIA A was clearly out of it but came very wide to check in for second missing by only a length; big threat. (2) SIR LEHIGH Z TAM could be right in the mix with a favorable trip.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

SPOT PLAYS

For Thursday


TRACK (RACE) HORSE, MORNING LINE


Belmont Park (4th) Corinthian's Joy, 5-1
(6th) Fourstar Crook, 3-1


Belterra Park (2nd) Wando's Storm, 3-1
(6th) Key to the Gold, 7-2


Charles Town (6th) Moonstruck Cowboy, 3-1
(7th) Start Line, 7-2


Finger Lakes (1st) My Honey Laurie, 7-2
(7th) Sirton, 4-1


Golden Gate Fields (6th) Gnarly Dude, 3-1
(7th) Neversaynever, 3-1


Gulfstream Park (3rd) Social Media, 8-1
(6th) Supersecret, 7-2


Indiana Grand (1st) Bigredthundercat, 7-2
(7th) Cozy Critter, 7-2


Meadowlands (2nd) Not Today, 3-1
(5th) Twin Lights, 4-1


Penn National (2nd) Patria Querida, 6-1
(6th) Majestic Hope. 6-1


Presque Isle Downs (1st) Radicchio. 5-1
(5th) Sip N Zip, 9-2


Remington Park (2nd) Telequest, 8-1
(6th) Dream Sequence, 9-2


Santa Anita (2nd) Miss Star Maker, 3-1
(8th) Dragon Flower, 3-1

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Ace Assessment: Breaking down the week's top elite pitching options

With less than a week remaining in Major League Baseball's regular season, few teams have anything left to play for - but the same can't be said for daily fantasy players.

The final six days of the campaign represent six more chances at DFS glory - but only for those savvy enough to spend their salary wisely, beginning with those all-important pitching options.

Here are the strongest high-salary plays for the remainder of the week:

Thursday: Jose Fernandez, Marlins (at Rays)

Ah, the final Jose Day of the season - and it feels like it's here all too soon, thanks to Fernandez spending a good chunk of the season on the disabled list. But previous start aside, Fernandez has been on fire since returning for his most recent DL stint, and is in good position to end the year on a positive note against a Rays team that struggles against right-handers. Expect six solid innings and a whole pile of strikeouts.

Friday: Felix Hernandez, Mariners (vs. Athletics)

This slate is full of great pitching options, but Hernandez edges out the field despite having what he would consider a down year. Hernandez has been sensational at Safeco Field throughout his career, and winds down his year versus an Oakland lineup that shouldn't provide much of a challenge. Hernandez is not without risk, but represents great potential at a price that should come in lower than the top options.

Saturday: Zack Greinke, Dodgers (vs. Padres)

Sometimes, the best option is just too easy to identify. This is one of those times, with Greinke and his sub-1.50 home ERA facing a San Diego team that ranks among the league's worst at the plate. Greinke may not pitch as deep into the game as he usually does, but even a six-inning effort against an underwhelming Padres offense should yield enough fantasy points to return value despite his big price tag.

Sunday: Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers (vs. Padres)

See above - Kershaw facing the Padres at Dodger Stadium in the regular-season finale presents the same mismatch as Greinke the day before. DFS players should, however, be wary of two potential pratfalls: Kershaw either being placed on a strict pitch limit in order to keep him fresh for the playoffs, or being scratched altogether in favor of a bullpen arm. Players should keep a close eye on the probable pitchers before committing to Kershaw.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Mets (89-69) at Phillies (61-97)

Game: 3
Venue: Citizens Bank Park
Date: October 01, 2015 12:05 PM EDT

The only thing that might be able to dull the excitement surrounding the New York Mets' first playoff appearance in nine years is the injury bug, though it appears they've dodged a couple of bullets in that regard for now.

They're still on the brink of being swept by the lowly Philadelphia Phillies ahead of Thursday's series finale, however, which might be a costly blow to their hopes for home-field advantage in next week's NL division series.

Yoenis Cespedes left Wednesday's 7-5 loss with bruised left middle and ring fingers after being hit by a pitch in the third inning. X-rays were negative for the prized trade deadline acquisition who has posted a .946 OPS with 17 homers and 44 RBIs in 54 games for New York.

"That's always scary," manager Terry Collins said. "Very relieved he's OK."

Cespedes was the first of four batters hit on the night. Both benches cleared in the sixth after Philadelphia's Cameron Rupp hit the ground after Hansel Robles' fastball zoomed past his head. The two exchanged words but were held back from each other. Robles, who was ejected along with Collins, said the fastball "got away."

"You can't miss that bad up around the head," Collins said.

New York (89-69) will have to resort to a spot start as it tries to avoid a third straight loss for the first time since Aug. 14-16. Steven Matz was scratched for the second straight day, having already been pushed back after waking up with a sore back Tuesday.

The Mets are hoping he'll still be able to pitch in next week's NLDS against the Los Angeles Dodgers, whom they maintained a one-game advantage over for home field after they lost 5-0 at San Francisco on Wednesday. Collins said Matz may see some relief duty this weekend as the team tries to determine his availability.

He was expected to join Matt Harvey, Jacob deGrom and Noah Syndergaard in the playoff rotation.

"We've still got some time this weekend to get him some innings," Collins told MLB's official website. "But I just don't feel comfortable putting him out there. I know he'll go out there, but we don't need to subject him to having it get worse."

Taking Matz's place will be left-handed rookie Sean Gilmartin (3-1, 2.58 ERA). Gilmartin has been effective in a long relief role this year and owns a 1.08 ERA over 8 1-3 innings against Philadelphia.

The Phillies (61-97) have won four of five, scoring 31 runs in those victories as they try to avoid becoming the first 100-loss Philadelphia club since 1961.

"I know I wake up every day, knowing I don't want to lose 100 games," said Justin De Fratus, who pitched three scoreless innings of relief. "That wouldn't be a nice thing to sit on in the offseason."

Jerad Eickhoff (2-3, 3.07) continues to impress in his rookie season, especially lately with a 1.29 ERA in his last three starts. He fanned 10 while allowing two runs over seven innings in an 8-2 victory at Washington on Friday, becoming the franchise's first rookie with 10 strikeouts since J.A. Happ in 2009.

Eickhoff lost back-to-back quality starts against the Mets Aug. 26 and 31, yielding a combined six earned runs over 13 innings. Michael Conforto and Curtis Granderson homered against him in the second meeting.

New York shortstop Wilmer Flores' status is uncertain after he left in the fourth inning Wednesday due to lower back stiffness.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Blue Jays (92-66) at Orioles (77-81)

Game: 4
Venue: Oriole Park at Camden Yards
Date: October 01, 2015 12:05 PM EDT

With the AL East title secure, the Toronto Blue Jays can now turn their attention to other matters.

Wrapping up home-field advantage throughout the postseason and the potential return of a key contributor top that list.

There's a chance Troy Tulowitzki could be in the Blue Jays' lineup for the first time in almost three weeks Thursday when they conclude this four-game series against the Baltimore Orioles.

Toronto (92-66) has been the hottest team in the majors the past two months and locked up its first division title since 1993 with a 15-2 rout in the opener of Wednesday's doubleheader.

Jose Bautista hit his 40th home run, Edwin Encarnacion added No. 37 and Justin Smoak also connected in the first game for Toronto, which rested all its regulars and had a six-game win streak snapped with an 8-1 loss in the nightcap.

The opening-game victory was the Blue Jays' 47th since the All-Star break, matching the franchise record set in 1989.

'It's the ultimate right now,' manager John Gibbons said. 'To be honest, we think we have more ahead of us. It was a big hurdle to get over. It's been so damn long."

Toronto is one game ahead of Kansas City in the battle for the league's best record, with the winner getting home-field advantage through the World Series.

"I think home field for us, with the environment that we have now in that stadium, and I've talked to other GMs, other teams, everybody across the league is talking about what an unbelievable environment it is," Blue Jays general manager Alex Anthopoulos told MLB's official website.

While David Price has been everything the Blue Jays hoped for and more when they acquired from Detroit on July 31, Tulowitzki - their other marquee addition - made less of an impact in 39 games for his new club before he injured his back and shoulder against the Yankees on Sept. 12.

He took batting practice for the second straight day Tuesday and there's a chance he could play this game. If not, he likely would return this weekend in Tampa Bay.

"I'm good enough to take swings, and I'm good enough to take ground balls, and now it's just about tomorrow giving them good feedback: 'Hey I took a lot of swings and a lot of hard swings, and I feel good,'" Tulowitzki said.

Price was originally slated to start this game but will be pushed back to limit his down time before Game 1 of the division series, which starts Oct. 8.

Instead, Drew Hutchison (13-4, 5.33 ERA) will make his first start since Sept. 9. Part of Toronto's rotation most of the season, the right-hander allowed six runs in each of his last two starts, lasting five-plus innings in a 10-2 loss to the Orioles on Sept. 4.

Hutchison is 1-1 with a 7.79 ERA in three starts this year against Baltimore, surrendering six homers in 17 1-3 innings.

After scoring five runs during a five-game skid, the Orioles (77-81) got two homers from Chris Davis and one each from Manny Machado and Matt Wieters in the second game.

Davis has hit seven of his major league-leading 45 homers against Toronto.

Tyler Wilson (2-2, 3.60) gets another opportunity to prove he's worthy of a spot in Baltimore's 2016 rotation. The rookie right-hander has recorded quality outings in three of his four starts, including allowing two runs over six innings before leaving without a decision in a 5-4 win over Washington last Thursday.

He was effective in relief against the Blue Jays on June 19, yielding one run over 5 2-3 innings

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Cubs (93-65) at Reds (63-95)

Game: 3
Venue: Great American Ball Park
Date: October 01, 2015 12:35 PM EDT

The Chicago Cubs' chances of hosting the NL wild-card game may be slim, but it's not out of the realm of possibility - especially if their offense continues to produce like it did Wednesday.

Chicago seeks its fifth straight victory and a sweep of the Cincinnati Reds on Thursday at Great American Ball Park.

St. Louis clinched the NL Central with a victory in the nightcap of its doubleheader with Pittsburgh on Wednesday, locking Chicago (93-65) into next Wednesday's wild-card game against the Pirates (96-63). Home-field advantage is yet to be determined, though Pittsburgh's magic number to clinch it is two. The game would be played at Wrigley Field in the event of a tie, as Chicago won the season series 11-8.

The Cubs close out with three road games against a Milwaukee team they've beaten nine of 10 times. The Pirates close out with a three-game home series against struggling Cincinnati (63-95), which has lost 11 in a row for the first time since June 1998.

Chicago had 16 hits in Wednesday's 10-3 victory, including four from Starlin Castro, who hit his 11th home run. Austin Jackson also recorded a career-high five RBIs while going 3 for 5.

"We've got it going," manager Joe Maddon said. "Everyone is feeding off each other a little bit."

Jason Hammel (9-7, 3.86 ERA) has been shaky for Chicago down the stretch, posting a 6.39 ERA in his last eight starts. His struggles to eat up innings date back to the first half, as he's completed fewer than six in 12 of 14 starts since July 8. He did so in 12 of 16 previously.

The right-hander seemed to take a step forward last Saturday against Pittsburgh, cruising through four scoreless innings while yielding just two hits. He gave up five straight hits to open the fifth, including a three-run homer to Jordy Mercer, and was yanked without recording another out in an eventual 4-0 loss.

"He was doing great," Maddon told MLB's official website. "He really made good pitches, his stuff was really good and all of a sudden it happened quickly - a three-run homer."

Hammel has also failed to stick around in recent meetings with the Reds, completing five innings in all three matchups this year while posting a 4.20 ERA without a decision.

The Reds were limited to three sacrifice flies Wednesday, the first time they scored at least three runs all on sacrifice flies since a 6-3 loss to San Diego on Aug. 6, 1997. They haven't lost 12 straight since Sept. 10-22, 1993.

"We know it's ugly right now, and it doesn't even look like baseball," manager Bryan Price said. "There is no satisfaction from playing this poorly. These guys have to get through this and get better."

Cincinnati could be limited again if Joey Votto and Todd Frazier are still sidelined. Votto, who has reached base in a career-high 46 consecutive games, sat out due to shoulder stiffness, while Frazier was scratched because of stiffness in his lower right calf and Achilles tendon.

John Lamb (1-4, 5.40) may have had both the best and worst starts of his rookie campaign his last two times out. The left-hander threw six-plus scoreless innings in a 2-1 loss at St. Louis on Sept. 21, then was shelled for five runs and two homers in a season-low two innings of a 10-2 loss to the New York Mets on Saturday.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Dodgers (88-70) at Giants (83-75)

Game: 4
Venue: AT&T Park
Date: October 01, 2015 3:45 PM EDT

After bidding farewell to his former Bay Area team, Tim Hudson will take one last curtain call before closing out an outstanding career.

Hudson makes his 479th and final regular-season start as the San Francisco Giants finish a four-game series with the NL West champion Los Angeles Dodgers Thursday afternoon at AT&T Park.

The majors' active leader with 222 wins, Hudson (8-8, 4.30 ERA) revealed last month he will end a 17-year career containing four All-Star appearances and eight seasons of 15 or more victories at the conclusion of this campaign. The 40-year-old posted a winning record 15 consecutive years before going 9-13 in his Giants' debut in 2014.

"I just feel it's the right thing to do," he said during his Sept. 9 announcement. "It's the right time for me and my family. I played this game a lot longer than I ever thought I would."

Hudson's swan song will be brief, as he's currently dealing with a sore hip and spent two stints on the disabled list this season with shoulder issues. He threw just 34 pitches while allowing three runs in 1 1-3 innings in Saturday's return to Oakland, where he spent his first six seasons and started opposite ex-Athletics teammate and good friend Barry Zito in a 14-10 win.

Hudson threw six scoreless innings in a 5-1 home victory over Arizona Sept. 20 and is 2-0 with a 2.04 ERA in four starts since rejoining the rotation Sept. 8. He's also won both season meetings with the Dodgers, including a 2-0 decision May 19 in San Francisco behind 6 1-3 scoreless innings.

He'll have a tough act to follow after Mike Leake registered his first career shutout with a two-hitter in Wednesday's 5-0 win, denying Los Angeles (88-70) a chance to tie the New York Mets in the race for the NL's best record.

The Dodgers and Mets will square off in next week's division series with home-field advantage yet to be determined with four games remaining. New York owns the tiebreaker by virtue of a 4-3 season series edge.

Los Angeles, 52-26 at home and 36-44 on the road, hosts San Diego for three games after Thursday's matchup at AT&T Park, where its lone win in nine season visits came via Clayton Kershaw's one-hit, 13-strikeout division-clinching gem Tuesday.

Kershaw and Zack Greinke will head a playoff rotation that may include Brett Anderson (9-9, 3.75) if he can sort out his recent struggles.

Anderson has been hit hard in two straight starts, surrendering six runs and 10 hits in four innings Saturday at Colorado after allowing five runs and 10 hits over 4 2-3 in an 8-4 loss to Arizona Sept. 21.

The oft-injured left-hander is three innings shy of eclipsing a career-high 175 1-3, set during his 2009 rookie year with Oakland, and will establish a personal best with his 31st start. Anderson pitched in 30 games total while logging just 123 innings with the A's and Rockies from 2012-14.

He is 0-4 with a 5.64 ERA in five starts at AT&T Park and sports a 6.10 ERA in two 2015 losses there.

Matt Duffy went 3 for 4 with a two-run homer for San Francisco (83-75) and is 3 for 9 off Anderson this season. Brandon Crawford is 5 for 9.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Brewers (68-90) at Padres (73-85)

Game: 3
Venue: PETCO Park
Date: October 01, 2015 6:40 PM EDT

Beginning with his major league debut in June, Taylor Jungmann was one of the NL's top rookie starters for his first three-plus months.

The Milwaukee Brewers right-hander has hardly looked like the same pitcher in recent outings but will get the chance to end his season on a positive note Thursday against the short-handed San Diego Padres.

Jungmann went 9-5 with a 2.42 ERA in his first 16 starts after being called up June 9 but has gone 0-2 with a 9.61 ERA in his last four. He was charged with six runs in five innings in a 7-3 loss in St. Louis last Thursday.

Jungmann (9-7, 3.64 ERA) gave up two homers and has allowed seven over 19 2-3 innings in the last four after giving up three in his previous 16 games.

"Anytime I'm giving up home runs, it tells me one thing: I'm not getting the ball down," he told MLB's official website. "It's a long season. Everybody has little nicks and things like that. Stuff like that's not going to hold you out of the game. I feel fine. My arm feels good. I've just got to keep working."

Jungmann yielded no homers and two runs over seven innings while striking out eight in his only start against San Diego, an 8-5 win Aug. 5.

The Brewers (68-90) won their fifth consecutive game in the series, 5-0 on Wednesday, by scoring all of their runs in the sixth.

The Padres (73-85) lost Justin Upton in the first inning when he hit his head on a padded wall in left field. Interim manager Pat Murphy said Upton, who has a team-leading 26 homers and 81 RBIs, has a strained neck.

"He was checked out and everything looks fine," Murphy said. "Nothing major. ... I don't know how sore he is going to be (Thursday)."

San Diego lost Matt Kemp for the rest of the season before that game due to a partially torn tendon in his right middle finger. Kemp, who has 23 homers, got his 100th RBI in his final at-bat in Tuesday's series opener.

"It's a step forward. I guess it's always good to drive in 100 (runs), but I'd rather have 80 RBIs and go to the playoffs," he said. "Hopefully, it's a step forward going into next year and we can win more games."

Ian Kennedy (8-15, 4.38) will seek to end his season by snapping a six-start winless stretch, his longest in two seasons. The right-hander, 0-4 with a 5.77 ERA in his last six, allowed four runs and a season-high 11 hits over five innings in San Diego's 5-4 comeback win over San Francisco last Thursday.

Kennedy, who has a career high for losses, is 0-2 with a 4.97 ERA in his last four starts against the Brewers and yielded four runs in seven innings in an 8-5 defeat in his lone matchup this season Aug. 5.

Khris Davis, batting .345 with seven homers in his last 16 games, is 3 for 6 with two doubles lifetime against Kennedy.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Red Sox (78-80) at Yankees (86-72)

Game: 4
Venue: Yankee Stadium
Date: October 01, 2015 7:05 PM EDT

The stakes will be much higher if the New York Yankees are back in the Bronx next week.

Until then, they'd just like to clinch a playoff spot.

CC Sabathia tries to help the Yankees get to the postseason as they attempt to close out their home schedule by avoiding a four-game series sweep to the Boston Red Sox on Thursday night.

The Yankees (86-72) are atop the AL wild-card standings, and need one win from their final four games to clinch a postseason berth. Winning two would mean hosting Tuesday's wild-card game.

New York, though, has dropped nine of 13 at home and failed to secure a playoff spot Wednesday, blowing a seventh-inning lead in a 9-5, 11-inning loss.

"We try to clinch (Thursday), I guess," said reliever Andrew Bailey, who took the loss after allowing three runs in the 11th.

The Yankees haven't been swept at home by the Red Sox (78-80) since losing all three matchups from June 7-9, 2011.

Each of Sabathia's last three starts against Boston have ended in New York victories while he's gone 1-0 with a 2.50 ERA and 19 strikeouts in 18 innings.

The left-hander allowed one run and three hits while fanning eight in six innings and not figuring in the decision of a 2-1 win Aug. 6.

Sabathia (5-10, 4.82 ERA) wasn't sharp Friday, giving up four runs and two homers in 6 2-3 innings of a 5-2 loss to the Chicago White Sox. He was 1-0 with a 1.04 ERA in his first three starts after returning from the disabled list due to inflammation in his right knee.

Alex Rodriguez's solo homer Wednesday was his first in 14 games. He finished 2 for 4 after batting .147 with two RBIs during his home run drought.

He has a .344 average with nine RBIs in nine home matchups with Boston this year.

The Red Sox are spoiling more than the Yankees' playoff hopes. They've been denying them the distinction of becoming the first AL team to reach 10,000 wins in the regular season.

"I don't think we are necessarily trying to ruin hopes," center fielder Mookie Betts said. "I think we are just going out and playing the game, trying to win some games, and I just that's kind of like a bonus."

Betts is 6 for 15 with three homers, three doubles and three RBIs in this series. He's batting .348 with five homers and 10 RBIs in his last 11 matchups.

Boston turns to Rich Hill (2-0, 1.17), who has struck out 10 in each of his three starts since being called up from Triple-A Pawtucket. The left-hander appeared in 14 games as a reliever with the Yankees last year.

Hill was outstanding again Friday, tossing a two-hitter in a 7-0 win over Baltimore for his second career shutout - first since 2006 with the Chicago Cubs.

"As a reliever," Hill said when asked if any team showed interest in him after he was waived by Washington in June. "No team would take a chance as a starter without going to play independent baseball, re-proving (myself) again to be able to go out and start again."

Hill now faces his former team for the first time since being designated for assignment in August 2014.

 

[Can'tPickaWinner2]

Preview: Nationals (80-78) at Braves (64-94)

Game: 3
Venue: Turner Field
Date: October 01, 2015 7:10 PM EDT

It came far too late to keep Washington's season going beyond this weekend, but Stephen Strasburg has been brilliant in recent starts.

The Nationals right-hander will try to close out his injury-shortened campaign with another double-digit strikeout performance Thursday night against the Atlanta Braves.

Strasburg has totaled 50 strikeouts in 30 1-3 innings in his last four starts and gone 2-0 with a 0.78 ERA and 0.57 WHIP in his past three. He yielded one run and three hits in eight innings while fanning 13 in Saturday's 2-1, 12-inning win over Philadelphia.

The Nationals (80-78) were officially eliminated from the postseason chase less than an hour before that win because of a New York Mets victory.

Strasburg (10-7, 3.63 ERA) will try to become the first NL pitcher with 10 or more strikeouts in five consecutive games since Randy Johnson did so in six straight in 2002. Another Hall of Famer, Pedro Martinez, was the franchise's last pitcher to pull off that feat in 1997.

Strasburg makes his 23rd start, his fewest since 2011, after enduring two stints on the disabled list for neck tightness and an oblique strain. He's gone 5-2 with a 2.09 ERA in nine starts since returning from the latter injury Aug. 8.

"He's getting better and better every time," shortstop Ian Desmond told MLB's official website. "All three (of his) pitches are plus-plus pitches."

Strasburg has pitched 12 scoreless innings while striking out a combined 13 in back-to-back wins over the Braves (64-94) and went five in a 3-1 victory June 23 in his only matchup this season. He'll face an Atlanta team that's totaled four runs in the first two games in this series, but has won both.

Atlanta, 5-13 in the season series, will go for its first three-game sweep of the Nationals since April 11-13, 2014, with rookie Ryan Weber on the mound.

Weber (0-2, 5.91) was tagged for seven runs in two-plus innings in his fourth major league start, a 12-11 loss in Miami on Friday. He had a 3.26 ERA in his first three outings and yielded one run in seven innings in a 2-1 win over Philadelphia on Sept. 19.

Bryce Harper will try to send Weber to another loss while ending a 3-for-26 slump. The NL MVP frontrunner is 0 for 11 in his last three games, beginning with Sunday's loss to Philadelphia that featured his dugout scuffle with closer Jonathan Papelbon.

Harper's 0-for-4 performance in Wednesday's 2-0 loss gave him a .331 average and put him in a virtual tie with Miami's Dee Gordon in the NL batting race.

Atlanta's Freddie Freeman won't be in the starting lineup for the rest of the season because of an ailing right wrist but can pinch-hit. Freeman is batting .429 with three homers in 28 at-bats against Strasburg, the best average among the 82 hitters who have faced him at least 11 times.

"It's just one of those things that unfortunately got a little worse," Freeman said. "So, the plan is different than the one we had a couple days ago."

The Braves will seek to win six in a row at home for the first time since August 2013 and take their fifth in a row there over the Nationals. Atlanta hasn't won five straight home games in one season against Washington since 2009.

Washington's Yunel Escobar, among the NL leaders with a .318 average, is day to day because of spasms in his upper back that have ailed him since Sunday.