This is a copy of a classic post that sent one tout-wanna-be down in flames. Poor Jake
<BLOCKQUOTE class="ip-ubbcode-quote"><font size="-1">quote:</font><HR>Originally posted by Jake Thompson:
Ok, I'll answer these the way I would look at them, with my way of capping games. Instead of going into the questions too deep, I'll do it briefly, because quite frankly I don't feel I have to prove anything and this is the Rubber Room and all.
"1) Besides runs scored, which are the two most important offensive catagories a handicapper uses to evaluate a specific baseball team?"
On Base Percentage is big (hits/walks) and Slugging Percentage. Even though I consider many more statistics for figuring out offensive production, those two are fairly telling.
"2)SF is -160 favorite at home against Neagle/Colorado. Late word out of SF says Bonds tweaked his back during batting practice and will be replaced by Marquis Grissom. How much should the line be adjusted, and explain the reasoning behind the adjustment."
The line should be adjusted depending on what percentage of the Giants offense Bonds is at the time. I can't tell you the adjustment without that.
"3) You like the under in the New York/Chicago game. One book has the under at 7.5 -130. Another out has it at 7 -105. Which line offers the best value and explain your reasoning."
Good question. As far as which line historically has more value, couldn't tell you. If I capped the game at 7 I would lay off. If I capped it at 6.5 I would take under 7. I never want to lay 130 on a total. That's how I'd look at it.
"4) Next day: you again like the under for NY/Chi. One book has the line at 8 -105; another has it at 8.5 -125. Which line offers the best value and explain your reasoning."
If I capped it at 7.5 or 8, I'd take under 8.5, if I capped it at 7, I'd take under 8. My reasoning being -125 is a little cheaper than the other -130 example I guess.
"5) The Mets are starting a pitcher just promoted from AAA in tonight's game against the Expos. What methods would you use in evaluating this rookie's chances of success in his major league debut against Montreal?"
Look at his stats in the minors. Look at what leagues he's played in. What teams/coaches. How highly he's looked upon by certain institutes that do prospectus reports. Check out how Montreal has been hitting against pitchers they've seen for the first time. Other things too, but those are a few I'd do.
Sorry I didn't answer in better detail, but I have better things to do right now.<HR></BLOCKQUOTE>
