Trace Adams Saturday Game Analysis
Saturday's Selection ...
For Saturday in college football, One-and-Only 2000♦ Rivalry Game of the Year is the UCLA Bruins as the home underdog against the visiting cross-town rival USC Trojans. As of 10:00 pm eastern time on Friday night, the price on this release is the Bruins +3 points both in Vegas and offshore.
The last time the Bruins came in as the higher-ranked of the 2 Los Angeles schools? How about 2001, and UCLA promptly lost that one by a 27-0 count. The Bruins also lost last year's meeting in shutout fashion, getting blanked by the Men of Troy by a 50-0 count, as Lane Kiffin did not take his foot off the gas pedal in Rick Neuheisel's last year of his 4 year run at his alma mater.
The fact of the matter is the Trojans have won the last 5 series meetings and 12 of the last 13 overall, but today is where that dominance gets halted. UCLA is a different team this season under 1st year coach Jim Mora Jr., and a win today has them likely playing Oregon in the Pac 12 title game come December.
It will be the UCLA defense that makes the difference today, as the Bruins keep Matt Barkley in check. Barkley has been slinging it a little too often down the stretch, and he has thrown 8 picks his last 3 games - 2 of them outright losses by the Trojans!
On offense, the Bruins should be able to do business as well, as QB Brett Hundley is plenty mobile, and RB Johnathan Franklin is capable of exposing the leaky Trojans defense.
USC's penchant for getting flags thrown against them also works in the favor of the host Bruins, and Southern Cal having failed ALL 5 of their games away from home, I think the chance UCLA picks up the outright is quite probable.
UCLA has covered 3 of 5 at home this season, and as the home pup stands at 6-3 versus the line their last 9. Throw in the Bruins 3-1 spread mark the last 4 series meetings at the Rose Bowl against Troy, and I will surely take my chances with UCLA to avenge 5 years of frustration. Grab the points with the Bruins.
Saturday's Selection ...
For Saturday in college football, One-and-Only 2000♦ Rivalry Game of the Year is the UCLA Bruins as the home underdog against the visiting cross-town rival USC Trojans. As of 10:00 pm eastern time on Friday night, the price on this release is the Bruins +3 points both in Vegas and offshore.
The last time the Bruins came in as the higher-ranked of the 2 Los Angeles schools? How about 2001, and UCLA promptly lost that one by a 27-0 count. The Bruins also lost last year's meeting in shutout fashion, getting blanked by the Men of Troy by a 50-0 count, as Lane Kiffin did not take his foot off the gas pedal in Rick Neuheisel's last year of his 4 year run at his alma mater.
The fact of the matter is the Trojans have won the last 5 series meetings and 12 of the last 13 overall, but today is where that dominance gets halted. UCLA is a different team this season under 1st year coach Jim Mora Jr., and a win today has them likely playing Oregon in the Pac 12 title game come December.
It will be the UCLA defense that makes the difference today, as the Bruins keep Matt Barkley in check. Barkley has been slinging it a little too often down the stretch, and he has thrown 8 picks his last 3 games - 2 of them outright losses by the Trojans!
On offense, the Bruins should be able to do business as well, as QB Brett Hundley is plenty mobile, and RB Johnathan Franklin is capable of exposing the leaky Trojans defense.
USC's penchant for getting flags thrown against them also works in the favor of the host Bruins, and Southern Cal having failed ALL 5 of their games away from home, I think the chance UCLA picks up the outright is quite probable.
UCLA has covered 3 of 5 at home this season, and as the home pup stands at 6-3 versus the line their last 9. Throw in the Bruins 3-1 spread mark the last 4 series meetings at the Rose Bowl against Troy, and I will surely take my chances with UCLA to avenge 5 years of frustration. Grab the points with the Bruins.
Trace Adams Sunday Game Analysis
[h=4]Sunday's Selection ...[/h] For Sunday in the NFL, Raise the Bar 1500♦ Winner #6 of 8 is the underdog Arizona Cardinals as they play against the Atlanta Falcons. As of 10:00 pm eastern time on Saturday when I release this selection, the Cardinals are +9 1/2 point dogs to the Falcons.
A little past history first...Last week none of the 3 teams that were favored by double-digits - New England, San Francisco, and Pittsburgh - were able to cover the hefty impost, and while Atlanta is just slightly under a double-digit chalk, I do not feel they will be able to cover their hefty impost either.
I realize the 4-0 start the Cardinals got off to was a major mirage, as Ken Whisenhunt's team is riding 5 straight up losses and and 0-5-1 spread mark into the Georgia Dome this Sunday afternoon, but the good news is the Redbirds had last week off to heal some injured bodies, and work on some new wrinkles in their stagnant (no more than 17 points in any of their 5 losses!) attack.
Atlanta was finally knocked off the unbeaten perch last week at New Orleans, and they do have a division road game with upstart Tampa Bay up next. This is a classic "sandwich" spot for the Falcons who have a tendency to play them close in their backyard.
In their 4 home games played, Atlanta is 4-0 straight up, but their margins of victory have been: 6 to the Broncos, 2 to the Panthers, 3 to the Raiders, and 6 to the Cowboys. It would not surprise me at all if Mike Smith's team got involved in another close one at home in this contest.
The Arizona defense has been rock-solid for the most part this season, so I am going to grab the generous spot and look for this one to be a hard-hitting, low-scoring close on again in the Georgia Dome.
In the battle of the birds, take the underdog Redbirds to cover.
[h=4]Sunday's Selection ...[/h] For Sunday in the NFL, Raise the Bar 1500♦ Winner #6 of 8 is the underdog Arizona Cardinals as they play against the Atlanta Falcons. As of 10:00 pm eastern time on Saturday when I release this selection, the Cardinals are +9 1/2 point dogs to the Falcons.
A little past history first...Last week none of the 3 teams that were favored by double-digits - New England, San Francisco, and Pittsburgh - were able to cover the hefty impost, and while Atlanta is just slightly under a double-digit chalk, I do not feel they will be able to cover their hefty impost either.
I realize the 4-0 start the Cardinals got off to was a major mirage, as Ken Whisenhunt's team is riding 5 straight up losses and and 0-5-1 spread mark into the Georgia Dome this Sunday afternoon, but the good news is the Redbirds had last week off to heal some injured bodies, and work on some new wrinkles in their stagnant (no more than 17 points in any of their 5 losses!) attack.
Atlanta was finally knocked off the unbeaten perch last week at New Orleans, and they do have a division road game with upstart Tampa Bay up next. This is a classic "sandwich" spot for the Falcons who have a tendency to play them close in their backyard.
In their 4 home games played, Atlanta is 4-0 straight up, but their margins of victory have been: 6 to the Broncos, 2 to the Panthers, 3 to the Raiders, and 6 to the Cowboys. It would not surprise me at all if Mike Smith's team got involved in another close one at home in this contest.
The Arizona defense has been rock-solid for the most part this season, so I am going to grab the generous spot and look for this one to be a hard-hitting, low-scoring close on again in the Georgia Dome.
In the battle of the birds, take the underdog Redbirds to cover.
Trace Adams Monday Game Analysis
[h=4]Monday's Selection ...[/h] For Monday in the NFL, Raise the Bar 1500♦ Winner #7 of 9 is the underdog Chicago Bears as they play against the San Francisco 49ers. As of 7:30 am eastern time when I release this selection, the Bears are +6 1/2 point dogs to the Niners.
This game is going to have to be decided by the Chicago defense. Yes, Jason Campbell has known all week that he was going to be the starter tonight, but that doesn't make his job any easier, especially against this staunch San Francisco defense.
Would tend to believe Mike Tice's game-plan tonight will feature the run first, the run second, and the run third, as Tice tries to keep Campbell from the costly pick that could decide this game.
Still, Chicago's defense is more than capable of creating a turnover or two of their own, just ask the Tennessee Titans! The Bears will play this game defense first as they look to take advantage of back-up Colin Kaepernick who is likely going to start for Alex Smith who is coming off a concussion of his own.
After going on a 10-1-1 home spread run, the 49ers have failed each of their last 3 this season against the spread, and are fresh off the first tie in the NFL since the 2008 season when they played to a 24-24 draw against the Rams last weekend at home.
Chicago is on a 3-1 spread run on the road, and a 7-3 overall spread run on the highway their last 10. At the end of the night, this is just too many points to give a defense as stout of Chicago's. Campbell is not that bad, so look for this one to play right down to the wire.
Take the points.
[h=4]Monday's Selection ...[/h] For Monday in the NFL, Raise the Bar 1500♦ Winner #7 of 9 is the underdog Chicago Bears as they play against the San Francisco 49ers. As of 7:30 am eastern time when I release this selection, the Bears are +6 1/2 point dogs to the Niners.
This game is going to have to be decided by the Chicago defense. Yes, Jason Campbell has known all week that he was going to be the starter tonight, but that doesn't make his job any easier, especially against this staunch San Francisco defense.
Would tend to believe Mike Tice's game-plan tonight will feature the run first, the run second, and the run third, as Tice tries to keep Campbell from the costly pick that could decide this game.
Still, Chicago's defense is more than capable of creating a turnover or two of their own, just ask the Tennessee Titans! The Bears will play this game defense first as they look to take advantage of back-up Colin Kaepernick who is likely going to start for Alex Smith who is coming off a concussion of his own.
After going on a 10-1-1 home spread run, the 49ers have failed each of their last 3 this season against the spread, and are fresh off the first tie in the NFL since the 2008 season when they played to a 24-24 draw against the Rams last weekend at home.
Chicago is on a 3-1 spread run on the road, and a 7-3 overall spread run on the highway their last 10. At the end of the night, this is just too many points to give a defense as stout of Chicago's. Campbell is not that bad, so look for this one to play right down to the wire.
Take the points.
