I don't think AP will bust many, if any, long runs in this game. First of all, HE'S NOT 100%, and still listed as "?" though of course he's going to play. Chester Taylor is "?" as well. Secondly, the Titans' have a ferocious defense. Slaton did manage a couple of big runs against them last week, so you know what the Titans did? They benched starting MLB Fowler for the speedier Tulloch this week. Tulloch was really impressive in the preseason and many of his teammates are happy to see him in the starting line up this week. Thirdly, I like Collins' chances of play-faking for a big play better than Frerotte's because the Titans have a superior secondary AND offensive tackles while McKinnie is still suspended for Minny. Fourthly, the Titans' have been getting by with fewer blockers on passing plays than the Vikings have. Fifthly, the Vikings have been dreadful in the Red Zone, because it's hard to score there without a decent passing game. Frerotte should be an improvement over Jackson there, but he didn't convert any last week. The Vikings' red zone defense has been poor as well. Why? Once again, it's because they don't defend the pass well. The Titans have been better than average in the red zone while having a stifling red zone defense because they defend the pass so well.
I don't think AP will bust many, if any, long runs in this game. First of all, HE'S NOT 100%, and still listed as "?" though of course he's going to play. Chester Taylor is "?" as well. Secondly, the Titans' have a ferocious defense. Slaton did manage a couple of big runs against them last week, so you know what the Titans did? They benched starting MLB Fowler for the speedier Tulloch this week. Tulloch was really impressive in the preseason and many of his teammates are happy to see him in the starting line up this week. Thirdly, I like Collins' chances of play-faking for a big play better than Frerotte's because the Titans have a superior secondary AND offensive tackles while McKinnie is still suspended for Minny. Fourthly, the Titans' have been getting by with fewer blockers on passing plays than the Vikings have. Fifthly, the Vikings have been dreadful in the Red Zone, because it's hard to score there without a decent passing game. Frerotte should be an improvement over Jackson there, but he didn't convert any last week. The Vikings' red zone defense has been poor as well. Why? Once again, it's because they don't defend the pass well. The Titans have been better than average in the red zone while having a stifling red zone defense because they defend the pass so well.
brady -- The Texans' play should rebound some after two really lousy games. They had a pretty good passing game last year and were unfortunate to play their first two games of the year against 2 of the top 4 pass defenses in the league. The Jaguars' pass defense is a pretty big drop off from either Pittsburgh's or Tennessee's. The Jaguars had the impressive road victory at Indy last week, and I had them bet to cover and on the ML. Why? Because even though they were still playing with a freshly rebuilt offensive line, the Colts were dealing with several defensive injuries themselves and looked to be defensively soft, especially versus the run.
I really don't see any mismatches strong enough for the Jaguars to consider them a play, which is reflected in my numbers liking the Texans to cover. What I am worried about, though, is the mental health of the Texans. They've had the hurricane at home, no home games yet, and 3 tough road opponents now to start the season. Schaub is hearing replacement whispers, but c'mon, he's been okay considering the defenses they've faced.
I really don't see any mismatches strong enough for the Jaguars to consider them a play, which is reflected in my numbers liking the Texans to cover. What I am worried about, though, is the mental health of the Texans. They've had the hurricane at home, no home games yet, and 3 tough road opponents now to start the season. Schaub is hearing replacement whispers, but c'mon, he's been okay considering the defenses they've faced.
Team Totals I am looking at for Week #4
Chiefs Over 18.5 -- I think worst case scenario will still find KC with an opportunity to backdoor this.
Jets Under 23.5 -- Pretty stiff juice (-130) at TheGreek right now, and for a good reason -- this is one of the best TT bets on the board.
Saints Under 26.5 -- Injured offense versus solid defense. Niners' QB bound to get sacked and fumble it once deep in his own territory, though, lol.
Falcons Over 15.5 -- Ryan should burn the Panthers at least once, so it's just a matter of scraping up another 10 points with almost 4 quarters to do it.
Cowboys Under 28.5 -- Another stiffie at -130, prolly not worth a play unless it drops back down to -115.
Steelers Under 20 -- Me gusta muchisimo!
If you have an account with 5Dimes, always look there first Sunday morning, as they hang a normal vig on their TTs, not the jacked up -115 at BookMaker and TheGreek.
Chiefs Over 18.5 -- I think worst case scenario will still find KC with an opportunity to backdoor this.
Jets Under 23.5 -- Pretty stiff juice (-130) at TheGreek right now, and for a good reason -- this is one of the best TT bets on the board.
Saints Under 26.5 -- Injured offense versus solid defense. Niners' QB bound to get sacked and fumble it once deep in his own territory, though, lol.
Falcons Over 15.5 -- Ryan should burn the Panthers at least once, so it's just a matter of scraping up another 10 points with almost 4 quarters to do it.
Cowboys Under 28.5 -- Another stiffie at -130, prolly not worth a play unless it drops back down to -115.
Steelers Under 20 -- Me gusta muchisimo!
If you have an account with 5Dimes, always look there first Sunday morning, as they hang a normal vig on their TTs, not the jacked up -115 at BookMaker and TheGreek.
Thank you. Great analysis and you've given me a lot to think about. I did not see the ATL / TB game and those details you shared are very convincing in their reasons for not judging ATL by the other two opponents that they've faced this season. I'll do some more due dilligence on this one as a result, even though my card is pretty much set.
Thanks again. BOL with all your action Crunch!
It looks like the Philly ML has bottomed out and is heading back up.
Adding to win 1.5 Units:
Philly ML -160 *** Scalp ***
The ML did indeed come down on this one so I'm able to scalp 1.5 units for a small profit with my CHI ML +1.65, but I'm letting the profit ride with the 1/2 unit CHI ML bet I'm keeping, as I like the value on the play. Take a few bucks and move on, lol.
Adding to win 1.5 Units:
Philly ML -160 *** Scalp ***
The ML did indeed come down on this one so I'm able to scalp 1.5 units for a small profit with my CHI ML +1.65, but I'm letting the profit ride with the 1/2 unit CHI ML bet I'm keeping, as I like the value on the play. Take a few bucks and move on, lol.
Well, we briefly had the Texans +7.5 earlier in the week (I played the Jags -7 to see if there would be a middling opportunity -- but held out and the line dropped back down). It seems not many have faith in the Jags to cover the 7, as the juice is dropping from on the -7 even, so...
Adding for 1 Unit:
Texans +7 ***Juice loser with my Jags -7 play***
Adding to win 1 Unit:
Texans ML +265
As I don't have faith in the Jags to cover this number either, but this play is simply a hedge on my Jags/Chargers teaser play, as I have confidence in the Chargers covering it, but not so much the Jags.
Adding for 1 Unit:
Texans +7 ***Juice loser with my Jags -7 play***
Adding to win 1 Unit:
Texans ML +265
As I don't have faith in the Jags to cover this number either, but this play is simply a hedge on my Jags/Chargers teaser play, as I have confidence in the Chargers covering it, but not so much the Jags.
Need help to get "unconfused"
Hey Crunch,
Appreciate the time and effort you put in to share with us. I'm trying to simplify how to follow you. I have decided to only play your 1 unit plays with no parlays or teasers. That helps alot. What I have left is trying to keep up during the week when you get off or "unrecommend" a play at the numbers you get. This is next to impossible since I don't sit at the computer all day and even when I do, the time is a factor. For instance, your post to get off Tampa and onto GB was posted right at kickoff so I still have Tampa.
I guess what I'm looking for is your suggestion as how I can best do this. I am a big fan of the K.I.S.S. school of thought. I'm not as young and sharp as I once was. If anyone out there has had similar concerns, what did you do? Thanks and gl to all.
Hey Crunch,
Appreciate the time and effort you put in to share with us. I'm trying to simplify how to follow you. I have decided to only play your 1 unit plays with no parlays or teasers. That helps alot. What I have left is trying to keep up during the week when you get off or "unrecommend" a play at the numbers you get. This is next to impossible since I don't sit at the computer all day and even when I do, the time is a factor. For instance, your post to get off Tampa and onto GB was posted right at kickoff so I still have Tampa.
I guess what I'm looking for is your suggestion as how I can best do this. I am a big fan of the K.I.S.S. school of thought. I'm not as young and sharp as I once was. If anyone out there has had similar concerns, what did you do? Thanks and gl to all.
