I'm thankful for the appreciation and understand the concern.
Here is the conundrum of tailing...The most successful style of wagering does not lend itself to having others tail you, as many bets are made to beat line moves or quickly made plays before the second half starts. By the same token, any plays offered up by touts or those just sharing are often presented at a time when the line no longer holds it's current value. Following someone, even those that are successful, will never be as successful as if you were able to cap the games as well as the person you are following. For years I've posted early plays when the lines have come out and watched the value bleed out of them during the week (regardless of the final outcome). Do I recommend that people watch for my early posts to have a chance to get more favorable lines? Yes. Do my threads get many hits in the first half hour that I post the early plays? No. Need I say more? I never said tailing me would be easy, I only said it would be worth it, lol.
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Crunch, I had a great afternoon as well, although the Chargers and Bills games started off terribly. I really thought that the 49ers had turned a corner until today. I was surprised how bad the Saints defense made O'Sullivan look.
Was very happy that Palmer missed the Turd Bowl and you were right on about the Texans!
Later.
Was very happy that Palmer missed the Turd Bowl and you were right on about the Texans!
Later.
Remember when I said earlier in this thread that O'Sullivan would probably get sacked, fumble it = an easy score for the Saints? Ding-ding-ding, we have a winner, er wait, a loser, lol. Man, the SF defense really didn't play that bad this game. They gave up a couple of long balls that were the big difference. They shut down the Saints running game. Sullivan getting sacked 6 times and his turnovers were the obvious huge differene. At least O'Sullivan turned it over enough times in the red zone to cash the Under. Breeze at home versus a pretty inexperienced O'Sullivan who has shown a propensity to hang on to the ball too long -- lesson learned!
At any rate, today more than amply demonstrated why I'm hesitant to break my plays down into strongest versus solid. You can see that I bet the strong and the solids the same, 1 unit. But today all 4 of the strongest plays lost while I still had a huge day +13.2 Units. So no more, purple plays. I apologize to anyone who just tailed the strongest plays, that's the way it goes sometimes with the volume of plays I make.
I did go 9 for 9 on 2nd halves today, but believe me, I'd rather win the plays that are sitting on the card all week than the ones that may be hard to tail at halftime. Most of all, I'd prefer to win the bets on sides, as those equate to better standing at thepredictiontracker. It was a pretty ho-hum day on sides, 6-5 so far. I mangled the totals today though -- it's nice to see those get back on track as they and 2nd halves have been my most consistent winners historically.
There is value on Chicago and a slim bit on the Over 20.5. Because I have Chicago +3.5 and ML for the game I'm comfortable with that exposure. Many times I'll double down here, but it looks to me like Chicago is getting more breaks than Philly right now, and that Philly is bound to make a run at this. Chicago does start the second half with the ball.
1/2 Unit:
Over 20.5 2nd half
Less value by my lines, but Under the key number of 21 is pretty good. Philly isn't going to run it much in the second half, and Chicago will look to continue exploiting Philly's gambling defense.
1/2 Unit:
Over 20.5 2nd half
Less value by my lines, but Under the key number of 21 is pretty good. Philly isn't going to run it much in the second half, and Chicago will look to continue exploiting Philly's gambling defense.
Hmm, now this is interesting. The line has moved to +4.
1/2 Unit:
CHI +4 2nd half (-115)
Chicago, being up by a touchdown right now, automatically gets a shot at pushing this second half spread at worst if Philly ties it up. So really, you're looking at Philly outscoring Chicago by a minimum of 10 points in the second half for this to lose (unless Philly kicks 2 field goals and Chicago wins by 1), which makes losing the Over and the side more unlikely
1/2 Unit:
CHI +4 2nd half (-115)
Chicago, being up by a touchdown right now, automatically gets a shot at pushing this second half spread at worst if Philly ties it up. So really, you're looking at Philly outscoring Chicago by a minimum of 10 points in the second half for this to lose (unless Philly kicks 2 field goals and Chicago wins by 1), which makes losing the Over and the side more unlikely
Eh, messing around with the stinking Grand Salamis cost me my profits on the Chicago game. The home teams crushed in the first half of most games today, outscoring the roadies 188-92! The roadies were game in the second half, but it was just too big of a deficit to make up. Unless Baltimore wins by 40 something tomorrow both Salamis are done, as the Under was pretty much a lost cause at kickoff tonight. So yeah, I'm gonna count both the Salamis as losses.
Week #4: +13.4 Units
Pending: BAL +17/Under 47.5 to get the second half of a monster, BALT +6.5 & Under 34.5 1 Unit each, and Balt +240 ML to win a half Unit.
Week #4: +13.4 Units
Pending: BAL +17/Under 47.5 to get the second half of a monster, BALT +6.5 & Under 34.5 1 Unit each, and Balt +240 ML to win a half Unit.
