The Sports Cruncher's Week #4 Thread

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How's about the TEN Under as well? As your writeup suggests, this should be a run fest, and Collins vs Frerotte w/their WR's not the most exciting prospect. I'm looking at a 15-6 type gm. Is Gage going to play for TEN? Love both team's run "D".
 

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Gage was inactive with an injury last game, which doesn't bode well for playing the following week. He may have been their leader in receptions if he'd played this last week, but WR is usually the most easily replaceable position on the field.

But where in my write up did I suggest that THIS game would be a run fest, lol? Both of these teams are absolutely playing the right quarterbacks for their offenses now. It's something I've been giving some thought to of late.

If you're a run first team, it makes sense to have a good pocket and play-action QB. Good play-action because most teams will be defending the run on 1st and 2nd downs, predominantly, and a good pocket QB because in obvious 3rd and long passing downs you want someone who will stay in the pocket and deliver a first down throw, or avoid the rush and then throw for a first down instead of running, or just take a sack as it's not much worse than an incomplete pass on 3rd down. Sure, sometimes a QB will end up running for the 1st down on 3rd and medium to medium-long. But those are often runs made by any QB presented with an open field in front of him after stepping up in the pocket.

Clearly, mobility is better than non-mobility in any player, but for a QB it's more like the heavy icing on a cake. Historically (off the top of my head, lol) a mobile QB has really only ended up being as good as his passing game. And just because a QB is considered to be mobile doesn't mean that he's any good at throwing the ball on the run or out of the pocket.

I suppose the argument could be made that mobile quarterbacks work well with play fakes because they can bootleg or drift outside of the pocket to get some clearer passing lanes, but once again, most QBs are capable of executing these plays well enough. Who's the number #1 passer outside of the pocket? Jay Cutler, I believe. He's young with a decent set of legs, but it's his arm that makes getting out of the pocket dangerous for defenses, not his legs.

So, as far as this game goes, both teams know they are going to have to take their shots with the passing game when up against such solid run defenses, and now both teams are capable of punishing opponent's who put 8 in the box to stop the run. This total is at 36 right now, and I have to really like an Under to play it when it's below 37. I don't know what my O/U line is now -- not until Thursday or so.
 

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OAK/SD Under 46

As I've said, my O/U lines are not in place for this week, so this is just an eyeballer play. Last night I assumed the Jets would have a sound offensive game plan involving a heavy dose of running. They didn't -- their loss. There aren't that many coaches or coordinators you can assume to call a good game, lol. Luckily, there's no assuming that the Raiders will feature the run in this game, it's a given. Oakland's defense and especially their pass defense have mostly gotten back on track after stumbling out of the gate versus Denver, the offensive dynamo. If this game gets out of hand, at least it'll be J. Russell trying to lead his team from behind, and not Favre, lol. If Oakland finds itself with a big lead, well, then the Under will probably be in danger. Odds are against it, so I expect LOTS OF RUNNING, SO DAMMIT, YOU'D BETTER KEEP YOUR END OF THE BARGAIN, OFFENSIVE COORDINATORS!

*** Okay, I'm not sure what the opening line was on the NYJ/ARI game. I'd thought it was -3 moving off of 3. But it looks like it might've opened at less than 3. Regardless, I'm pretty sure I like ARI in this game. I don't know what Kris Jenkins status will be for next week, but the Jets defense was poor without him in there.
 

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Off topic cruncher but I can't find a Pit/Bal line anywhere. I run a football pool at work and have to put out the sheet today and hate to guess at it. I was thinking Steelers would be -7 or -7.5 - what do you think? (obv huge difference between -7 and -7.5)
 

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Off topic cruncher but I can't find a Pit/Bal line anywhere. I run a football pool at work and have to put out the sheet today and hate to guess at it. I was thinking Steelers would be -7 or -7.5 - what do you think? (obv huge difference between -7 and -7.5)

Big Ben is supposed to start week #4 in spite of the hand injury that took him out of the game last week. Casey Hampton had a groin injury in the 3rd Q. and I'm not sure what his status will be for next week. For Baltimore, D. Landry had a spinal cord concussion (new to me), and while he'll be okay, I'm not sure when he's returning to action.

I suspect the books will hang something in the ball park of -4.5 (I haven't looked online to see if there are any lines or pre-lines available for this game). If it's a number higher than this it's because the Steelers are typically over-valued while the Ravens may still be undervalued in spite of two convincing wins. I think -4.5 would be fair even with it being Flacco's first road game and the Steelers typically being a better home team. The Steelers struggled mightily on offense last week versus a good defense, and the Ravens are no slouches, lol. If they're smart they'll follow Philly's blueprint and blitz the bejesus out of Big Ben, as the Eagles logged 8 sacks versus the Steelers.
 

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Wow, just 4.5? That surprises me, thanks!

I didn't realize I missed another game - Philly at Chicago. I was thinking this game would be PK - thoughts on the line?

Edit: I see the spread dot com has Pittsburgh -8 and Chicago +3.5 so I guess we are both off.

GL this week
 
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JAC -1.5/SD -1 Teaser

The unfortunate Texans are already playing their 3rd road game of the season while their lone home game was hurricaned to a later date, causing domestic damage/disruption to many of the players as well. I'm sure they're fighting to just not be depressed at this point, let alone confident. They haven't put a defense on the field yet that can stop a power running game, so even Jacksonville's rebuilt offensive line should do well to give Jax a balanced attack. Last week at Indy the rebuilt O-line did a good enough job to beat the Colts suspect D-line. The Texans' offense hasn't lived up to expectations this year. Their entire offense last week consisted of one big running play and two big passing plays. The Jags have rebounded from their slow/injured start, and are primed to roll the Texans in Jville as they're accustomed to doing.

While the Oakland secondary is okay, it's corners are definitely undersized. SD of course, has some large fellows at WR and TE, so good coverage will not be any guarantee of incomplete passes. The Raiders, after getting no sacks against Denver, have logged 5 versus KC and 3 versus Buffalo, as a result of playing with the lead for most of the game. As they figure to not have a sizable lead (they could very well have a lead at any point of this game, realistically, but just not a sizable one, odds are), the Chargers won't be in as many obvious passing downs as the Chiefs and Bills were, so Rivers should be in a situation more like Cutlers, where the Raiders aren't getting good pressure on him.
 

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Going to lunch now, so I hope I don't miss a Pittsburgh -8 line being hung, as I'll pound Baltimore in a heartbeat if they do.
 

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As a matter of fact, if a line is released in the next hour of Baltimore +7 or better, consider it a 1 unit play on the Ravens. I'll have to do it mobile style at BookRaper/JuiceMaker to make a play. *** Just saw an update -- Willie Parker is out next game, as is Hampton.
 

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49ers +6

Just an eyeballer as well, as my lines aren't ready yet. The 49ers have a better defense, especially pass defense. Shockey out 4-6 weeks. He's been pretty active in their offense. The 49ers rejuvenated Martz-led offense should be able to match NO's offense point for point with the above considerations. An upset wouldn't be that surprising. I'll probably drop a little on the ML at some point as well.
 

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STL/BUF Over 41.5

Rams have given up an average of 38.6 ppg in their first 3, and that's with teams trying NOT to score at the end of games. If they can chip in with a couple of field goals it should be good.
 

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Speaking of the Rams, it's time for me to get off of the 1 unit play I made on them at +9. I accidentally lucked into a little middling opportunity as I never would have bet them in the first place if not for a spreadsheet mistake, lol.

1 Unit:

Buffalo -8 (+104 Matchbook)

Not a bet on Buffalo, mind you, just a small chance for a baby middle at less than full juice. I honestly don't think you can touch the Rams with a 10-point teaser this season. I put them in a 13 point monster teaser last week, but then regretted doing so once my lines shaped up, which is why that particular teaser became "Unrecommended." Sure enough, the Rams fell right on the +24 they were getting in that teaser (5dimes with their jacked up teaser-blocking lines = good teaser bets on dogs), making them the only teaser play to lose last week (3-1 +1.8 units).
 

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<table style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 340pt;" width="567" border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0"><col style="width: 167pt;" width="278"> <col style="width: 29pt;" width="49"> <col style="width: 48pt;" span="3" width="80"> <tbody><tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="21"> <td class="xl152" style="border-style: solid; border-color: windowtext white white windowtext; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 1.5pt; background: rgb(155, 187, 89) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; height: 12.75pt; width: 167pt; font-size: 10pt; color: white; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" width="278" height="21">PLAY</td> <td class="xl150" style="border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 1.5pt medium; background: rgb(155, 187, 89) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; width: 29pt; font-size: 10pt; color: white; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" width="49">W/L</td> <td class="xl150" style="border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 1.5pt medium; background: rgb(155, 187, 89) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; width: 48pt; font-size: 10pt; color: white; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" width="80">RISK</td> <td class="xl150" style="border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 1.5pt medium; background: rgb(155, 187, 89) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; width: 48pt; font-size: 10pt; color: white; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" width="80">REWARD</td> <td class="xl150" style="border-style: solid solid solid none; border-color: windowtext windowtext white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: 0.5pt 0.5pt 1.5pt medium; background: rgb(155, 187, 89) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; width: 48pt; font-size: 10pt; color: white; font-weight: 700; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" width="80">TYPE</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="21"> <td class="xl152" style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; background: rgb(215, 228, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; height: 12.75pt; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" height="21">CIN -3</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(215, 228, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">
</td> <td class="xl149" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(215, 228, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">-1.2</td> <td class="xl149" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(215, 228, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">1</td> <td class="xl150" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color windowtext white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(215, 228, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">S</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="21"> <td class="xl152" style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; background: rgb(234, 241, 221) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; height: 12.75pt; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" height="21">CIN/CLE Over 42.5</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(234, 241, 221) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">
</td> <td class="xl149" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(234, 241, 221) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">-1.1</td> <td class="xl149" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(234, 241, 221) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">1</td> <td class="xl150" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color windowtext white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(234, 241, 221) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">OU</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="21"> <td class="xl152" style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; background: rgb(215, 228, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; height: 12.75pt; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" height="21">JAC -7</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(215, 228, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">
</td> <td class="xl149" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(215, 228, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">-1.1</td> <td class="xl149" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(215, 228, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">1</td> <td class="xl150" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color windowtext white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(215, 228, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">S</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="21"> <td class="xl153" style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; background: rgb(216, 216, 216) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; height: 12.75pt; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" height="21">STL +9</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(234, 241, 221) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">
</td> <td class="xl149" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(234, 241, 221) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">-1.1</td> <td class="xl149" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(234, 241, 221) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">1</td> <td class="xl150" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color windowtext white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(234, 241, 221) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">S</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="21"> <td class="xl153" style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; background: rgb(216, 216, 216) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; height: 12.75pt; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" height="21">BUF -8</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(215, 228, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">
</td> <td class="xl149" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(215, 228, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">-1</td> <td class="xl149" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(215, 228, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">1.019</td> <td class="xl150" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color windowtext white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(215, 228, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">S</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="21"> <td class="xl152" style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; background: rgb(234, 241, 221) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; height: 12.75pt; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" height="21">WAS +11.5</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(234, 241, 221) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">
</td> <td class="xl149" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(234, 241, 221) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">-1.1</td> <td class="xl149" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(234, 241, 221) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">1</td> <td class="xl150" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color windowtext white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(234, 241, 221) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">S</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="21"> <td class="xl152" style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; background: rgb(215, 228, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; height: 12.75pt; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" height="21">WAS/DAL Under 47</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(215, 228, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">
</td> <td class="xl149" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(215, 228, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">-1.1</td> <td class="xl149" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(215, 228, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">1</td> <td class="xl150" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color windowtext white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(215, 228, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">OU</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="21"> <td class="xl152" style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; background: rgb(234, 241, 221) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; height: 12.75pt; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" height="21">TB -2.5</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(234, 241, 221) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">
</td> <td class="xl149" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(234, 241, 221) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">-1.15</td> <td class="xl149" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(234, 241, 221) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">1</td> <td class="xl150" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color windowtext white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(234, 241, 221) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">S</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="21"> <td class="xl152" style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; background: rgb(215, 228, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; height: 12.75pt; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" height="21">TB Pick</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(215, 228, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">
</td> <td class="xl149" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(215, 228, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">-0.55</td> <td class="xl149" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(215, 228, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">0.5</td> <td class="xl150" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color windowtext white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(215, 228, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">S</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="21"> <td class="xl152" style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; background: rgb(234, 241, 221) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; height: 12.75pt; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" height="21">TEN -3</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(234, 241, 221) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">
</td> <td class="xl149" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(234, 241, 221) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">-1</td> <td class="xl149" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(234, 241, 221) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">1</td> <td class="xl150" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color windowtext white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(234, 241, 221) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">S</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="21"> <td class="xl152" style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; background: rgb(215, 228, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; height: 12.75pt; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" height="21">ARI +3</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(215, 228, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">
</td> <td class="xl149" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(215, 228, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">-1.25</td> <td class="xl149" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(215, 228, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">1</td> <td class="xl150" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color windowtext white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(215, 228, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">S</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="21"> <td class="xl152" style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; background: rgb(234, 241, 221) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; height: 12.75pt; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" height="21">OAK/SD Under 46</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(234, 241, 221) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">
</td> <td class="xl149" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(234, 241, 221) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">-1.1</td> <td class="xl149" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(234, 241, 221) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">1</td> <td class="xl150" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color windowtext white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(234, 241, 221) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">OU</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="21"> <td class="xl152" style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; background: rgb(215, 228, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; height: 12.75pt; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" height="21">JAC -1.5/SD -1 Teaser</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(215, 228, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">
</td> <td class="xl149" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(215, 228, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">-1.1</td> <td class="xl149" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(215, 228, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">1</td> <td class="xl150" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color windowtext white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(215, 228, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">T</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="21"> <td class="xl152" style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; background: rgb(234, 241, 221) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; height: 12.75pt; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" height="21">SF +6</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(234, 241, 221) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">
</td> <td class="xl149" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(234, 241, 221) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">-1.1</td> <td class="xl149" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(234, 241, 221) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">1</td> <td class="xl150" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color windowtext white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(234, 241, 221) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">S</td> </tr> <tr style="height: 12.75pt;" height="21"> <td class="xl152" style="border-style: none solid solid; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white windowtext; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt; background: rgb(215, 228, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; height: 12.75pt; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;" height="21">STL/BUF Over 41.5</td> <td style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(215, 228, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">
</td> <td class="xl149" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(215, 228, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">-1.1</td> <td class="xl149" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color white white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(215, 228, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">1</td> <td class="xl150" style="border-style: none solid solid none; border-color: -moz-use-text-color windowtext white -moz-use-text-color; border-width: medium 0.5pt 0.5pt medium; background: rgb(215, 228, 188) none repeat scroll 0% 0%; font-size: 10pt; color: black; font-weight: 400; text-decoration: none; font-family: Arial; -moz-background-clip: -moz-initial; -moz-background-origin: -moz-initial; -moz-background-inline-policy: -moz-initial;">OU</td> </tr> </tbody></table>
 

New member
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Oct 10, 2007
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1 Unit:

49ers +6

Just an eyeballer as well, as my lines aren't ready yet. The 49ers have a better defense, especially pass defense. Shockey out 4-6 weeks. He's been pretty active in their offense. The 49ers rejuvenated Martz-led offense should be able to match NO's offense point for point with the above considerations. An upset wouldn't be that surprising. I'll probably drop a little on the ML at some point as well.


I love it! I'm on the same side of your bets for 3 of the 4 of mine: Cin -3, Ten -3, and SF +6.

Now I just gotta hope you find value in Atl +7 in the next few days and I'll feel a lot better going into the weekend. If not, 3 out of 4 ain't bad.
 

Chomping at the bits
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
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1 Unit:

DEN -2.5/BUF -2.5 (-110 5dimes)

Basic teaser strategy for 2 teams with obvious match up advantages. Both on the road though.
 

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Nov 19, 2006
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But where in my write up did I suggest that THIS game would be a run fest, lol? Both of these teams are absolutely playing the right quarterbacks for their offenses now.

True that Crunch, I combined run-first "O" and good run "O"s for both teams in your prophecy. And you're right about the QB upgrade. Both "O"s greatly improved with the switch, and this total is up in the air, so to speak.

I guess what I was thinking was when both team's RB's get little to no gains, are they going to be able to throw to move downfield? Both "D"s are very good at getting pressure on QB on passing downs. So I can only see playaction early in the gm. I believe both "D"s have seen good playaction with TEN seeing JAX, HOU, & CIN, and MIN seeing CAR, IND, & GB. IMO, both teams will be facing it's toughest "D"s yet, esp on run. And both teams have solid kickers with Bironas perfect so far, and Longwell hitting 9 of 10.

Intriguing matchup for sure. So you see TEN going 4-0? What a start for the Titans, ay? Can you imagine Collins taking TEN to the super bowl? Not as farfetched as people may think.
 

Chomping at the bits
Joined
Sep 21, 2004
Messages
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*** I'm looking at my first rough lines for the week, and I'm sorry to say that there are going to be some changes to the plays I've made. I did warn that all these early plays were made by eyeballing the lines.***

Adding for 1 Unit:

NO/SF Under 48.5

Yup, missed some value as this opened at 50, but that's life in the reconstruction lane. Still plenty of value, it looks like. I'll be giving detailed explanations for the new plays and lines over the next day or so, right now I'm just cranking out the numbers trying to make sure I'm not in too bad of a position on some of these. Luckily, I caught the line movement on most (as some were bet just to beat line movement), so I'm in a good position to get off cheaply/middle. That doesn't help anyone who took some of these plays at a worse line, so I apologize in advance if that ends up being the case.
 

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