Oh you know I've been all over it, Kiln, lol.
The teams that opened as a 14 point or greater favorite covered at a 2-1 margin across the board this past week. That being said, my big spreads seemed a bit too big and I've added a modifier (that I've used in past seasons) that bring down spreads a certain percentage based on a teams ability to protect/grow the lead with their run offense.
A quick look at the 2+ unit recommended investments of last week:
North Carolina - from the 2nd quarter on a wire to wire winner, with a last minute score cutting the double digit lead down. UNC was pretty conservative with the lead in the 2nd half, as well. I rightly predicted UNC would take Pitt's place in the polls today.
Louisville -- Wake had only two big plays all game and they unfortunately both went for touchdowns. LOU's run game didn't do as well as projected, though their passing game did, believe it or not. LOU had the turnover luck, but all of Wake's points came via luck. The first touchdown two LOU defenders ran into each other at the time of the reception. The second touchdown, okay, not really THAT lucky, a nice pitch and catch and terrible play by the safety. LOU fumbled a punt return to set Wake up for their FG, and LOU took a safety being sacked in the end zone, which I guess isn't luck, per se. Frustrating game to watch, to say the least.
Georgia Southern -- got the cover, but not by much.
South Florida -- we got super close to hitting the middle on this one, but the game opening luck of returning the kickoff for a touchdown ended up being cancelled out by a fourth quarter of bad luck that cost the cover. South Florida really didn't deserve the cover, though, they didn't hang in their as statistically close as projected. They did do really well in the passing match ups, but of course this game was going to be decided by the run for both teams. If USF had been able to hold Navy to ONE less yard on that last drive Navy probably kicks the field goal on 4th and 2 or worse that gives us the middle and a 4+ unit swing, which obviously would have been huge for the day.
Massachusetts -- flat out unlucky on this one. UMass outgained Ball and couldn't cover the 4. They had a 4th and 1 near the red zone late in the game, where a touchdown gives us the middle (barring any scoring after that in the final 2 minutes). But UMass had a false start, then came up a yard short on the fourth down. They must've had other drives where they screwed the pooch deep in Ball territory, judging by the yardage, I just happened to be watching the end of the game.
Georgia State -- a solid play, with GAST taking a 7 point lead to the fourth quarter, where they managed to hang onto the cover in spite of giving up 21 unanswered in the fourth.
GAST-ARST Under - bad play, even though it crushed the market move to set up a good middle opportunity, as planned. My numbers saw what the rest of the market saw, but when bad teams play with somewhat limited past games stats to draw upon, things can be more unpredictable, especially with totals, as we've seen this year, lol.
San Diego State -- Colorado State was outplaying SDSU in the first half, so I personally got off half of the SDSU play at halftime juice free. San Diego State crushed them in the second half, though, which is good for everyone who didn't hedge anything out. The huge mismatch in the running game played out in the second half.
Cincinnati - This one was in the bag before halftime. I was right that UCF's improving run game would have success against Cincy, but they didn't turn it into any points with their terrible passing game.
North Texas -- UNT was my only ML dog play of the week, and it hit. They were covering any number higher than 7 wire to wire, I believe.
Oklahoma/Kansas Under -- Kansas unfortunately scored one touchdown, and Oklahoma scored one too many with a very late second half score. I correctly hedged a portion with the first half Over, and still broke even on the game with the OKLA -39 play, which I liked on line value and also said if the game went Over Okla would almost certainly be covering.
Marshall/Charlotte Under -- This game got off to a bad start with Marshall's dormant pass offense waking up versus a terrible Charlotte defense, but not only did the original Under hang onto win I also added a 2nd half Under play which got there to boot, as scoring halted in the second half with Marshall going for it on fourth down every time in Char territory instead of kicking field goals. We had a chance to get lucky with Charlotte driving to the 11 in the final minute, where a final touchdown gives us the middle on the total and the win on the small Char +20.5 play...but I don't hit middles this year, by a decree of the football Gods.
Tennessee/Kentucky Over -- Such a good play it didn't even require a single point in the 4th quarter, thankfully, lol. Lots of quick scores by Tennessee which also helped them cover the spread play handily.
Duke -- If nothing else, I was thrilled when Miami cheaply won this game as it helps them get closer to covering the season Over play I have on them, lol. What can you say? Miami's red-shirt freshman QB played well against a good pass defense on the road in his first career start. If you saw that coming, good for you. Duke did have the projected advantage in the run game, but to lose the passing match up like that was painful.
The teams that opened as a 14 point or greater favorite covered at a 2-1 margin across the board this past week. That being said, my big spreads seemed a bit too big and I've added a modifier (that I've used in past seasons) that bring down spreads a certain percentage based on a teams ability to protect/grow the lead with their run offense.
A quick look at the 2+ unit recommended investments of last week:
North Carolina - from the 2nd quarter on a wire to wire winner, with a last minute score cutting the double digit lead down. UNC was pretty conservative with the lead in the 2nd half, as well. I rightly predicted UNC would take Pitt's place in the polls today.
Louisville -- Wake had only two big plays all game and they unfortunately both went for touchdowns. LOU's run game didn't do as well as projected, though their passing game did, believe it or not. LOU had the turnover luck, but all of Wake's points came via luck. The first touchdown two LOU defenders ran into each other at the time of the reception. The second touchdown, okay, not really THAT lucky, a nice pitch and catch and terrible play by the safety. LOU fumbled a punt return to set Wake up for their FG, and LOU took a safety being sacked in the end zone, which I guess isn't luck, per se. Frustrating game to watch, to say the least.
Georgia Southern -- got the cover, but not by much.
South Florida -- we got super close to hitting the middle on this one, but the game opening luck of returning the kickoff for a touchdown ended up being cancelled out by a fourth quarter of bad luck that cost the cover. South Florida really didn't deserve the cover, though, they didn't hang in their as statistically close as projected. They did do really well in the passing match ups, but of course this game was going to be decided by the run for both teams. If USF had been able to hold Navy to ONE less yard on that last drive Navy probably kicks the field goal on 4th and 2 or worse that gives us the middle and a 4+ unit swing, which obviously would have been huge for the day.
Massachusetts -- flat out unlucky on this one. UMass outgained Ball and couldn't cover the 4. They had a 4th and 1 near the red zone late in the game, where a touchdown gives us the middle (barring any scoring after that in the final 2 minutes). But UMass had a false start, then came up a yard short on the fourth down. They must've had other drives where they screwed the pooch deep in Ball territory, judging by the yardage, I just happened to be watching the end of the game.
Georgia State -- a solid play, with GAST taking a 7 point lead to the fourth quarter, where they managed to hang onto the cover in spite of giving up 21 unanswered in the fourth.
GAST-ARST Under - bad play, even though it crushed the market move to set up a good middle opportunity, as planned. My numbers saw what the rest of the market saw, but when bad teams play with somewhat limited past games stats to draw upon, things can be more unpredictable, especially with totals, as we've seen this year, lol.
San Diego State -- Colorado State was outplaying SDSU in the first half, so I personally got off half of the SDSU play at halftime juice free. San Diego State crushed them in the second half, though, which is good for everyone who didn't hedge anything out. The huge mismatch in the running game played out in the second half.
Cincinnati - This one was in the bag before halftime. I was right that UCF's improving run game would have success against Cincy, but they didn't turn it into any points with their terrible passing game.
North Texas -- UNT was my only ML dog play of the week, and it hit. They were covering any number higher than 7 wire to wire, I believe.
Oklahoma/Kansas Under -- Kansas unfortunately scored one touchdown, and Oklahoma scored one too many with a very late second half score. I correctly hedged a portion with the first half Over, and still broke even on the game with the OKLA -39 play, which I liked on line value and also said if the game went Over Okla would almost certainly be covering.
Marshall/Charlotte Under -- This game got off to a bad start with Marshall's dormant pass offense waking up versus a terrible Charlotte defense, but not only did the original Under hang onto win I also added a 2nd half Under play which got there to boot, as scoring halted in the second half with Marshall going for it on fourth down every time in Char territory instead of kicking field goals. We had a chance to get lucky with Charlotte driving to the 11 in the final minute, where a final touchdown gives us the middle on the total and the win on the small Char +20.5 play...but I don't hit middles this year, by a decree of the football Gods.
Tennessee/Kentucky Over -- Such a good play it didn't even require a single point in the 4th quarter, thankfully, lol. Lots of quick scores by Tennessee which also helped them cover the spread play handily.
Duke -- If nothing else, I was thrilled when Miami cheaply won this game as it helps them get closer to covering the season Over play I have on them, lol. What can you say? Miami's red-shirt freshman QB played well against a good pass defense on the road in his first career start. If you saw that coming, good for you. Duke did have the projected advantage in the run game, but to lose the passing match up like that was painful.
Guys, out of respect for my clients I'm not going to be posting my recommended investments until Tuesday. If there's any chance that they get a better line on even a couple of games because I wait then it's the only fair thing to do. I do not know whether there are enough people looking at or paying for my early lines and plays to end up moving lines, but I do know that my lines indicate which way the lines are going to go every single week. Hope you understand.
LOL, you're tout???!!! Sorry C, I never pay/paid attention to shit like that because you don't want my opinion on touts. GL with that, but the last time a guy sitting next to me at the single deck table at the MGM Grand asked me what he should do with a pair of tens and the dealer was showing six, that gentleman was no longer allowed to play blackjack at my table while I was in the house. May you at least win the book's money.
~T~
I've "touted" off and on for years, actually. I make a valuable product (sharp lines that are typically one point better than the openers on both sides and totals) that has value to people who choose to use it. I know which way the lines are going to move way more often than not. I donated my time and expertise for 6 or 7 full NFL seasons of proven value here at the rx before I decided to get a little compensation for my efforts. I'm pretty sure I earned my reputation here the old-fashioned way, if you've been around here for 15 years to have noticed. I don't sell picks. I sell my lines on every game, and I give them to my clients before the betting lines open. If there's a fairer way of providing proven value to a sports betting clientele I'd like to hear it.
Fair enough, just let me ask ya one thing. Last season, we had the conversation about how you were up and waiting for the opening lines at 2 am Sunday morning. You still doing that, and comparing them to your numbers, and folks are willing to pay for that delta by Monday evening, nah, I'd applaud you for finding people that stupid. In fact, I'd ask ya if ya needed an investor, LOL. That's not "touting," imho, that's offering an opinion of what one line is and what you think the line ought to be. If you're not "pushing" a side, can't possibly be considered touting, so I should have been more clear in my potential criticism. GL in any event, always interested in what you might have to say about you know what begins tomorrow night, LOL.
~T~
I don't remember having that conversation, as I don't have to get up that early to ready, lol. Not sure what you mean in the middle part with the Monday evening bit. My lines are distributed before the lines come out Sunday. The mid-paragraph swings from criticism to praise and back and forth from a rambler such as yourself are leaving me a bit confused, lol.
Understandable, but my only question is this. Why wait to implement this new policy until Week 10? :think2:
Timing seems odd. Were your clients complaining you were posting your "recommended investments" prematurely here at the Rx? How did they find out?
I didn't know you were running a sports handicapping service. This is news to me. Perhaps you indeed influence and affect line movement like RAS, Dr. Bob, etc. do.
Wish you the best with that endeavor. :toast:
I have clients from here and the other forum where I post. And yes, it was specifically because of complaints that I've stopped posting early. I was first approached by people this season about getting my lines early before I ever advertised it or even had it as an option from my website. But now that I've taken them up on the offer and added more clientele I have to do what is most fair to them. Thx, Inky and continued luck and success as well.
We had it, trust me. I questioned you about a lot of the lines you were getting last season, and you specifically told me they were the first lines coming out, around 2 am Sunday morning. I've got a pretty good memory my friend, but it is of no concern in this discussion. Good luck with your venture.
~T~
